Global Sharemarkets

Written By: - Date published: 9:05 am, February 15th, 2018 - 63 comments
Categories: business, capitalism, Economy, economy, Financial markets, International, monetary policy, tech industry - Tags:

U.S. stockmarkets have been highly volatile over the last two weeks. Nothing like a good scare on the global share markets to make people wonder if their money is safe.

The volatility has induced all sorts of unhelpful histrionics about the end of capitalism, and all kinds of media love this fear.

Markets are now happily recovering.

But let’s separate global private debt in mortgages – which is where interest rates are directly important – from the sharemarket.

The most practical way to evaluate financial anxiety is though the interests of ourselves and those who rely on us.

For the sharemarket part of that anxiety, the most useful way to evaluate our interests is through Kiwisaver.

Kiwisaver is a voluntary work-based savings initiative, brought in by the Helen Clark Labour government back in the day. You get to withdraw money out of it after you turn 65, or if you need to as a deposit for your first house.

Kiwisaver is by and large the only way most New Zealanders will have their savings directly exposed to global investment markets.

If you have your Kiwisaver scheme managed by the same institution as your main bank, you should be able to have the balances and the tracking visible as one statement. At least one bank registers your Kiwisaver amount as an offset against your total debt with that same bank, and provides visibility across all accounts including Kiwisaver. Which is pretty cool when that total interest payment goes down and the total principle payment can be adjusted against it.

There are also a range of risk profiles that you can consider, and most of the good schemes enable you to alter those profiles. So you can see things go up and down, faster or slower, depending on what risk-reward profile you choose. Its certainly not a kind of nanny-state anaesthetic in which you just relax and it’s all done for you. Your hand should be on the tiller, and you issue the direction instructions.

That means choosing the degree of global investment volatility you are exposed to. No guarantees with fund managers – and you pay for it. But there’s a lot of stress avoided in having things managed for you.

There’s also legislation coming up in the NZ Parliament (go Fletcher Tabuteau!) for the state (it will probably be NZSuper) to run its own Kiwisaver fund as well (i.e. more directly than Kiwibank’s one).

So how much of our anxiety do we all really want managed? My suggestion is: manage your anxiety through the interests of yourself and the people who rely on you.

To compare our relative levels of safety at this juncture, it is worth tracking assets favoured in times of turmoil.

At about US$1,335 an ounce, gold is actually down from its highs last month of US $1,358. So unless you have a whole bunch of gold sitting somewhere, don’t worry too hard about that.

In currency markets, a Bloomberg index of yen against the US dollar, euro, pound and six other major peers is hovering at around its lowest levels since early 2016.

Measures of stresses in the banking system such as the Libor-OIS spread are little changed over the past month, suggesting no one is worried about banks getting in trouble. If you are keen you can look at the U.S. Federal Reserve stress testing models:

As our Minister of Finance has noted, our economy is trucking along just fine.

Two weeks ago, the IMF raised its forecast of global economic growth this year to 3.9%, up .02% from its projection last October. That’s the fastest rate since 2011.

I recall two years ago there was another bit of global financial heartburn, when concerns about a slowdown in China’s economy and high debt levels there sent the MSCI All-Country World Index down 1.93% in December 2015 and 6.09% in the first quarter of 2016. But then their economy rebounded for two straight quarters in a row, and continues trucking along.

Right now there’s plenty to be anxious in the world. The sharemarket is of any real interest only if you are exposed to it. If you are considering your own financial interests, and want a modicum of exposure to the global financial investment systems, talk to your Kiwisaver team.

Otherwise, inhale.

63 comments on “Global Sharemarkets ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Antoine 1
    15 February 2018 at 9:19 am

    Hmm

    I don’t know if there’s so much to be relaxed about,

    A sharemarket crisis can be part of a broader financial crisis. Then businesses can go under, people can lose their jobs, other types of investment (bonds, property) can tank, banks can go under, the tax take can go down leading to less social spending, all kinds of nasty things can happen. Like 2008.

    A.

    • Ad 1.1
      15 February 2018 at 9:32 am

      Was fun writing this before Fletchers really melted.

      Still, since you vigorously defended Kiwisaver re Fletchers yesterday it’s hard to see what you’re complaining about.

      • Antoine 1.1.1
        15 February 2018 at 9:52 am

        I’m not complaining, I’m just disagreeing with your stance that people who don’t own shares have nothing to fear from a sharemarket crash.

        Also I didn’t defend Fletcher did I?

        A.

        • Ad 1.1.1.1
          15 February 2018 at 10:05 am

          You explained that a company the size of Fletchers at 7% of the NZX failing was nothing to worry about, either for Kiwisaver returns or for employees directly affected.

          Or was that someone else using your name?

          • Antoine 1.1.1.1.1
            15 February 2018 at 10:13 am

            I said that a 7% dip in the Fletchers share price was not a big problem in the context of a well diversified portfolio and that the Fletchers woes were not likely to result in a net loss of jobs. I dont see how that conflicts with what I’ve said here.

            A.

  2. Zorb6 2
    15 February 2018 at 9:43 am

    ‘There’s also legislation coming up in the NZ Parliament (go Fletcher Tabuteau!) for the state (it will probably be NZSuper) to run its own Kiwisaver fund as well (i.e. more directly than Kiwibank’s one).’
    You may be a bit confused here.Kiwibank’s kiwisaver fund is the old Gareth Morgan fund.It operates no different from other kiwisaver funds.
    The ‘Cullen Fund’ is the NZ Super Fund.

    • Ad 2.1
      15 February 2018 at 9:54 am

      Not confused at all.

      Read the bill. As per link provided.

      • Zorb6 2.1.1
        15 February 2018 at 10:17 am

        ‘The primary objective of the working group is—

        (a)
        to examine the accountability requirements of current KiwiSaver providers relating to fees and investment practices:

        (b)
        to advise on establishing a government-owned and operated KiwiSaver provider

        Why would you mention Kiwibank’s fund,it does not operate any different to other kiwisaver funds.

        • Ad 2.1.1.1
          15 February 2018 at 1:38 pm

          I mentioned it as a bracketed item because it is owned by the state and other state funds, so I mentioned them just to refine degrees of separation from state control, perceived or otherwise.

  3. Tony Veitch (not etc) 3
    15 February 2018 at 9:56 am

    Infinite growth in a finite world – sorry, I’ll need to have that explained to me – in simple terms please.

    • Leonhart Hunt 3.1
      15 February 2018 at 10:06 am

      oh that’s easy, Money as a concept has no limit as we currently treat money means it will always increase, buy the amount you need to buy items also increases, so technically you have infinite growth. But your buying power large stays the same (unless production massively increase with little/no cost or infra needed.)

    • bwaghorn 3.2
      15 February 2018 at 11:53 am

      Get on board the Falcon heavy . infinite space plenty of room .
      Its a shame they won’t have room for an ageing roustabout like me

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3
      15 February 2018 at 12:02 pm

      It’s not infinite growth that’s the problem so much. It’s that with capitalism all the wealth ends up in the hands of a few who then starve the rest of the world in their endeavour to have even more.

  4. Stuart Munro 4
    15 February 2018 at 10:01 am

    In the short term this may be true, but my feeling is that markets have not fully recovered from the softness of the GFC even now. Global shipping volumes often give a less volatile picture than markets because they don’t have the same level of nonsense like computer trading. They are still less than robust.

    https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/economy/global-economic-outlook/2017/shipping-industry-crisis.html

    • Phil 4.1
      15 February 2018 at 12:19 pm

      Your link does not support your comment.

      What it actually shows is a 2.9% per annum growth in the volume of goods transported (2008-2015). This means that the volume of goods being shipped is doubling every 24.25 years. This also means, in the same period, an approximate doubling in the number of cargo ships; the pollution they create; and other environmental impacts such as the number of collisions they have with cetaceans.

      I find this deeply troubling.

  5. Draco T Bastard 5
    15 February 2018 at 12:00 pm

    Capitalism is a failure.

    Continuing to promote capitalism at this point is purely anti-social.

    • ropata 5.1
      15 February 2018 at 12:11 pm

      Capitalism is not compatible with democracy or fair trade or a sustainable economy. Its only purpose is exploitation and externalising costs. The endgame is impoverishment and despair. Greece is the model

    • David Mac 5.2
      15 February 2018 at 12:20 pm

      The guy with a chainsaw working 50 hours a week doesn’t want to bankroll $100k p.a. couch surfers. Inside a week, he’d be swapping his saw for a TV remote.

      Driven a Trabant?

      • ropata 5.2.1
        15 February 2018 at 12:27 pm

        Citing crap engineering proves nothing about politics. NASA and CERN are state funded and lead the world.

        • David Mac 5.2.1.1
          15 February 2018 at 3:00 pm

          I disagree Ropata. When NASA are presented with a sub-standard length of neoprene tube it gets sent back to Neoprene Tube Pty Ltd and at NTPL’s expense they have another go or NASA talk to another manufacturer. Competition drives the quality of the tube.

          • ropata 5.2.1.1.1
            15 February 2018 at 3:08 pm

            As Fletchers and Fonterra so aptly demonstrate…

          • Draco T Bastard 5.2.1.1.2
            15 February 2018 at 5:31 pm

            But who developed the neoprene in the first place?

            Apple is a successful company because it had all that US federally funded research to sit on. Research it’s never paid for.
            SpaceX gets to launch a heavy rocket because of all the research that NASA and other space agencies have done. Research it hasn’t paid for.

            The list goes on and on and on.

      • Draco T Bastard 5.2.2
        15 February 2018 at 5:32 pm

        But that’s what he’s doing. Funding bludgers – the shareholders.

  6. Pat 6
    15 February 2018 at 12:11 pm

    lol….and remember the whole ponzi scheme is run on (over) confidence.

    Unfortunately viewing the sharemarket volatility as an isolated event of interest only to those directly invested ignores the the fact it is merely a symptom of underlying problems …..and reviewing your kiwisaver investor profile, while sensible will only have a personal impact at the edges.

    I posted this very good analysis a couple of days ago….it is well worth the read.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/92062/john-mauldin-ponders-last-weeks-sharemarket-ructions-us-government-debt-and-suggests

    Record debt, artificially low interest rates, rising inflation and crumbling infrastructure do not a good recipe make….especially when one of the cooks is Trump.
    (i deliberately ignored CC and increased natural disaster costs as things are grim enough)

    Would you lend him your life savings? and if you did what sort of return would you want for the risk?

  7. David Mac 7
    15 February 2018 at 12:26 pm

    Growth is as much to do with change as it is with producing more. There used to be 100’s of stables in central London and not a single black cab.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1
      15 February 2018 at 12:43 pm

      Yes I think people forget that.

      The goods and services that are in demand today will not be in demand in 100 years.

      Simple example: Oil is finite. So growth based on our use on oil is limited. Solar energy is unlimited (for the time being). We will over the next 100 years transfer from an oil dependent economy to something quite different. Growth will continue because we will be forced to change the way we live. That change generates the growth.

      • ropata 7.1.1
        15 February 2018 at 1:10 pm

        The century of cheap growth based on oceans of oil is over. There is no comparable energy source that provides similar energy density and ease of transport. The global economy is built on that assumption. All aspects of modern society will be massively restricted without oil.

        War, plague and famine are strong possibilities. “Growth” is over.

        • Enough is Enough 7.1.1.1
          15 February 2018 at 3:13 pm

          Ok

          Lets say the oil runs out tomorrow. Society as we know it changes forever and the world economy retracts by 50% over a 15 year period. Then what. Will it keep retracting? Maybe for another few years. Maybe more.

          At some point though we will hit the bottom and begin growing again.

          Growth is never over.

        • David Mac 7.1.1.2
          15 February 2018 at 3:22 pm

          Like Enough is Enough do you not see room for growth in oil alternatives? In 1900 cities could see no solution for the ever increasing piles of dung. Along came Henry Ford. I like his quote ‘If I gave the people what they wanted I would of given them a faster horse.’

          I don’t think cheap oil is over, at my Caltex petrol is still cheaper than their water. The oil giants are sitting on capped fields. I think it will be phased out, not because there isn’t any but because the escalating price makes exploring alternatives attractive and we want to stop altering the climate.

          Horses are now for hobbies and sport. I think oil derivative powered vehicles will go the same route.

          • ropata 7.1.1.2.1
            15 February 2018 at 6:52 pm

            Meanwhile the USA is strategically planting military bases in all the oil rich countries. They can cut the global oil supply lines at will and take it all for themselves. The first priority will be their war machine. If there’s any dregs after that it will go to industry and the elites able to pay top dollar. Public transport might be somewhere down the bottom of the priority list.

            The private car will be seen as historical evidence of this generation’s moral depravity and destruction of the future.

            • Exkiwiforces 7.1.1.2.1.1
              15 February 2018 at 6:58 pm

              You could say the same for China as well as some of their PLA Bases are start to appear strategic places.

            • David Mac 7.1.1.2.1.2
              15 February 2018 at 7:13 pm

              Cripes, yes that’s one view. I’m pleased it’s not mine. I’d struggle to maintain a happy demeanor and justify getting out of bed. I’d be in a state of constant depression.

              Do you really think motor cars represent our generation’s moral depravity and destruction of the future? I wonder if early civilisations saw fire in a similar light.

              I’m happy to continue using a car to visit my Mum and whip down to the shop for milk, blissful in my ignorance….I do love machines.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.2
      15 February 2018 at 5:41 pm

      Growth is as much to do with change as it is with producing more.

      The problem comes down to growth (get bigger) and GDP (gets bigger). So, yes, economists go on about growth also containing development but it’s not made clear because they’re choosing the wrong word and the wrong measurement.

      Much better to split the two. Have development and growth so that people know the difference.

      Of course, once they do that then it becomes obvious that we don’t need growth any more. Just development.

      Still, the big problem is capitalism and how it concentrates wealth into the hands of the few and thus drives up poverty.

      • Ed 7.2.1
        15 February 2018 at 5:42 pm

        And capitalism is failing.

      • David Mac 7.2.2
        15 February 2018 at 7:23 pm

        Hands of a few? Anyone holidaying in Doubtless Bay or enjoying a nice red are capitalism players Draco.

        If there aren’t 500 wagons loaded with milk powder heading to ports each day, kiss government paid benefits goodbye.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 7.2.2.1
          15 February 2018 at 7:30 pm

          Get off your knees. If there weren’t government support for business in the form of regulatory oversight and roads, there’d be no economy to speak of at all.

          • David Mac 7.2.2.1.1
            15 February 2018 at 7:53 pm

            Yes we need a government to mark out the pitch, blow the whistle and take care of those that can’t play. Capitalism needs taxation to survive, sure.

            But if the stream of logs, tourists and milk powder stops, government provision and enterprise alike, we’re all eating fern roots.

        • greywarshark 7.2.2.2
          15 February 2018 at 7:33 pm

          but i thought that dairy only brings in 6 per cent of our national earnings – though is a lot by physical volume.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.2.2.3
          16 February 2018 at 2:29 am

          Hands of a few?

          Yes. What is it now, eight people own as much as half the worlds population. That’s the sort of aggregation of wealth that causes poverty.

          Anyone holidaying in Doubtless Bay or enjoying a nice red are capitalism players Draco.

          Are they? Or is it that they have no option?

          See, I’m pretty sure it’s the latter. Enjoy a nice red? Either make it yourself, of which very few people have the time because capitalism has taken it from them, or buy it from a bunch of capitalists that have screwed down the workers to make themselves rich.

          If there aren’t 500 wagons loaded with milk powder heading to ports each day, kiss government paid benefits goodbye.

          That’s a lie.

          Government creates money, spends into the economy via infrastructure spending and UBI. That money will then be spent consuming NZ’s own resources of which we have quite a few.

          We don’t need international trade or money to utilise our own resources for what we need and want. That’s just another lie from capitalists.

          Actually, from what I can make out, capitalism is based entirely upon lies.

  8. AB 8
    15 February 2018 at 1:55 pm

    Prosperous insiders don’t recognise the extent of personal/psychological alienation that now exists out in punterland.
    Lots of people want a another financial crash, a Trump presidency, in fact anything cataclysmic enough to clean out the Augean stables of late-stage capitalism. They will seize on any sign of another GFC with glee. It’s remotely possible they’re right – nobody really knows.
    But it’s a dangerous thing to wish for. It took two world wars (50 million dead) and a great depression to give us the 35 year interregnum (1945-1980) known as the golden age of social democracy – before normal transmission was resumed.

  9. greywarshark 9
    15 February 2018 at 2:01 pm

    When anyone writes how rotten things are going to be and that we are doomed, I decree that they put in some useful and realistic thing that people can do to counteract things in their daily personal lives or in some group thing in their area.

    My latest thought is not new, but just the vision of it. I am thinking of the Russian nesting dolls that fit together, matryoshka. Neighbourhoods can find a way to be like that, closer, then the whole suburb and then town would have these mutually supportive groups that would mean that we were more than individualistic.

    We have neighbourhood support which is quiet at the moment but instead of just thinking about protecting against crime, getting to know a little about each other to say hello once a week, share leftover garden vegs etc. would be a greater reason for it.

  10. Exkiwiforces 10
    15 February 2018 at 3:46 pm

    I’m not really surprise that this correction has happen on the equity markets as this had to happen sooner or later as the threat of rising interest rates looms as interest rates worldwide are at historic lows and in some case at negative percentage rates in other worlds banks are charging you to keep money in the bank not the other way round.

    With record low interest rates around the world its been hard for those that use savings to live off aka retirees, semi retires or those you are about to retire from the workforce as the banks are seen a low risk option when compared to the equity markets. But with these low interest rates the only way these people could a return from their investment’s to live was to put it in shares as the return from dividends and share price increases offer a far better than in the bank, this comes with a far great risk than the Bank. As is the case with the mother-in-law she had to put the her retirement fund into the equity market because of the low interest rate, but the flip to this is she has really good accountant and he see the correction coming and pull her funds out late years.

    For me atm I can ride this storm out ever through I’m about to be pension off due work related injures i’m still getting a income at reduce level, but my partner and I have taken advantage of the low interest rates and reduce our debt to zero. Unlike a good percentage of my cohort who are spending up like a drunken sailor on a run ashore or cash up service person who has return from 6mths active service (I brought a house, kitted out the house white house, reno’s, pay down debt etc).

    But there is going to be a sting in the tail with my cohorts and those people that have use the low interest rates to maintain their lifestyle by putting everything on the card etc. or those that have kept on expanding their business while they haven’t put any savings or pay down debt for a rainy day. As these people will get caught when the rates will start going up. There was a graph in the Australian Newspaper or was it the ABC Finance Report in the new a couple of days ago. Showing household debt to income and paying debt off ratio. If interest rates rise to 3.5% by the end of this year as everyone is predicting this adds up to about 13% of total income.

    Now if households have to use 13% of there total income to pay off debt the effect on the overall Australia economy could be huge and only knows what affect if something similar a occurs in NZ. Most of the older generation and some of us Gen X’s know that interest rate have to some eye watering levels before aka double digits and the effect that has.

    We also need to remember the workers ongoing retirement saving funds have been heavily invested into the equity markets due the low interest rates which is ok if you are starting out or a quarter to half way of your working life you will be fine as the long term tend overall for equity markets is always going up. But if are you 3/4 quarters through working life or not far off from retiring, you may to want seeking some financial advice as I think the next 12 to 18 mths might be a little rocky as interest rates start going up as mob mentality sets in as everyone panics for the door. As those you are panicking on a the equity markets are those trying to make a quick buck, those you are high leveraged on the market, Option and futures traders trying to cover their ass as the market tanks which feeds on the Mum and Dad investors who have taken a punt of the market instead of having a family date out at the Trots where the odds are sometimes better.

    Keep claim and Keep carrying on.

  11. AsleepWhileWalking 11
    15 February 2018 at 5:03 pm

    “Measures of stresses in the banking system such as the Libor-OIS spread are little changed over the past month, suggesting no one is worried about banks getting in trouble”

    It might suggest nobody is worried, but what you didn’t say is that about a month before the latest craaash LIBOR fell below what is was in 1973. (In other words banks don’t trust other banks to pay back money borrowed – somebody’s very very worried).

    If JP Morgan and Deutsche have the value of their assets drop more than 3.8 and 3.9% they are screwed (Doucha Bank being rumoured to be technically insolvent and subject to a stealth bail out last year).

    Its good to see people on TS talking about the financial system. Maybe we won’t be sheep to the slaughter after all. Fingers crossed…

  12. cleangreen 12
    15 February 2018 at 5:31 pm

    The belief system in capitalism is now on the wane so it will implode as capitalism is just a mirage proffered by business interests so we are in a vacuum at present about to be consumed by another Global crash, and the right wing can say what they like but cant convince the majority who now don’t believe in the economic miracle any more that capitalism promised with there “trickle down” futures.

    • Ed 12.1
      15 February 2018 at 5:37 pm

      Yes clean green a crash is coming as sure as night follows day.
      The crises of capitalism are coming to a head.
      Sadly, I fear it has come too late for our species and other complex life forms on the Earth.
      The biggest beneficiaries of industrial capitalism will be bacteria.

      • ropata 12.1.1
        15 February 2018 at 6:43 pm

        Cockroaches will survive as well. It seems quite likely that the US government is under the control of a cabal of crustaceans conspiring to kill all other life forms on Earth :tinfoilhat:

      • David Mac 12.1.2
        15 February 2018 at 7:37 pm

        …and when all the dust settles what will happen? You’ll be swapping some of your nectarines for a few of my chickens….sorry Ed, remiss of me, my grapefruits. You’ll get fed up with grapefruit and start thinking how nice a pane of glass would be but the guy making it hates nectarines….Maybe if we could have some token that represents value…..oh dear, fledgling capitalism.

        Capitalism is not the culprit, we’re doing it wrong.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1.2.1
          15 February 2018 at 7:48 pm

          Capitalism (like Communism) doesn’t exist outside of books about economic theory.

          ‘Social democracy, we’re doing it wrong’. FIFY.

          • David Mac 12.1.2.1.1
            15 February 2018 at 8:03 pm

            By what means did I came about my clothes? I didn’t read about them or make them myself.

            Yep, I’d go along with that too, we are doing social democracy wrong.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1.2.1.1.1
              15 February 2018 at 8:34 pm

              The ability to spend money on goods is not confined to social democracies. cf: the USSR, Cuba, etc.

        • Draco T Bastard 12.1.2.2
          16 February 2018 at 2:34 am

          Ah, the usual idiotic mistake of confusing trade for capitalism.

          Capitalism is ownership.

          Capitalism is the culprit and we’re definitely doing it right – that’s why it’s failing. Capitalism will always fail because it results in the few owning everything and everyone else starving.

  13. Lara 13
    16 February 2018 at 1:01 pm

    Okay, thought about it for a few days, and have to weigh in with my 2 cents worth here because the OP covered two markets of which I am intimately familiar; US indices and the Gold cash market.

    I’ve been analysing these markets daily for 10 years now. I’m a Chartered Market Technician.

    I see a common assumption in the OP that gold is a favoured market in times of turmoil. But the price evidence does not support this oft repeated claim.

    The stock market crash that preceded the Great Depression ran from 1929 to 1933. But Gold had already peaked in 1923 and fell from $21.73 in 1923 to $17.06 in 1931.

    The two sets of data are not inversely correlated. Look at the correlation coefficient between price of the S&P500 and Gold, you will find it has absolutely zero reliable correlation, swinging from a positive right through to a negative correlation.

    Regarding the fall in price over the last couple of weeks in the US indices:

    This is totally normal and to be expected volatility. After some months of steadily rising price this is a normal pullback.

    If Kiwis want to read news and ill informed market commentary and think they need to have a more active role in managing their Kiwisaver funds, they would most likely interfere too much and likely lose from it. Buy and hold in a bull market is the most profitable approach, and adding to a portfolio when markets pullback is part of a normal strategy.

    After some time of increasing volatility there will be an end to this bull market, as there always is. But not yet. Currently this market is strong and healthy, despite high and persistent levels of debt. That debt means the resulting crash will be horrible, but it is hopeless as a timing tool for identifying when the crash is upon us.

    There are plenty of tools useful for that. A good technical analyst should be able to identify the difference between volatility to ignore, and the early stages of a potential market crash.

    Unfortunately in bull markets technical analysis tends to become less popular, and is often maligned towards their ends. I can’t remember which firm it was, but I have heard that one large Wall St firm fired all their technical analysts in 1999. I bet they regretted that decision after the Dotcom crash began in 2000.

    “The sharemarket is of any real interest only if you are exposed to it.”

    At this time that’s most Kiwis. We’re mostly all in. Both in property, and in our sharemarket via Kiwisaver.

    Otherwise I agree very much with the final sentence.

    I just have issues with some assumptions within the OP.

    • Exkiwiforces 13.1
      17 February 2018 at 12:13 am

      I agree with your assumptions Lara, but as interest rates start to climb in the US and worldwide I see that a few more pangs will happen as the more conservative investor moves his or her money to the bank instead to Lessing their risk to the equity market. The flip side to this if the Hedge funds, the short sellers and futures market etc. get it wrong then we are more likely to see a crash as every man and his dog, the kitchen sink head for the same door as everyone else, then it would be like the Grand National Race at Aintree where its anyone guess on who wins.

      We need to mindful on how interest rates rise as this will lead to inflation, wage increases etc, if its to fast then we are likely to see some problems i.e inflation getting of control, uncontrollable wage increases, debt repayment issues as everyone carried on a drunken sailor on shore leave while the interest rates were low (note todays gen/ the me me set have never seen double digit interest rates in their lifetime) and the economy tanks.

      I think old Winnie mention this just before he enter coalition talks or at the end, as he believe the economy could head when at the current data that was available and past historic tends.

    • Pat 13.2
      17 February 2018 at 6:12 am

      “There are plenty of tools useful for that. A good technical analyst should be able to identify the difference between volatility to ignore, and the early stages of a potential market crash.”

      And yet they never finger them until after the event.

      As you yourself state…
      “After some time of increasing volatility there will be an end to this bull market, as there always is.”

      There are many aspects of sharemarket activity that are hotly debated but the fact that picking the timing of a crash is impossible is not one of them. Markets, even those widely influenced by algorithms, are not rational.

      As noted above, sharemarket volatility is merely a symptom of wider problems.

      • Lara 13.2.1
        23 February 2018 at 8:33 am

        Again, you have misinterpreted my words. I choose my words very carefully.

        Picking when a market MAY crash is something that technical analysis can do. But it cannot do that before it begins, only after it has begun. After the high, after some downwards movement from price, there are several tools which can indicate the difference between another correction or pullback, and the potential early stages of a full bore bear market.

        But it’s an exercise in probability, not certainty.

    • Ad 13.3
      17 February 2018 at 7:55 am

      Lara, great to hear from an expert in the field.
      I clearly do not have your level of expertise.

      My view on taking a greater interest in Kiwisaver risk still holds.
      I think too many just sign up and forget it.
      Where you generally can, take a hold of your life.

      I am surprised that you say you can predict a crash.
      Not too many predicted the last one. It seems that New Zealand has had one about once a decade since I can remember – and that does not mean we are “due” one.

      I only partly agree that we are all and equally exposed to the share market.
      Some are, more than others. It takes something like the 1987 crash for me to remember whole development companies falling, together with brokerage firm and second tier finance companies. Sure the link is definitely there, but at the moment it’s the share market that is volatile, not the property market.

      Thanks for commenting as an expert practitioner.

      • Lara 13.3.1
        23 February 2018 at 8:29 am

        To be clear, I did not say I can predict a crash.

        I said that I can identify a potential crash after the markets have turned.

        Once price begins to come down there are many indicators which can point to the probability of a full bore bear market continuing to pull price lower.

        I think most people would see a crash prediction as predicting a crash at or just before the high, not after. That’s not how technical analysis works.

        Although to be fair, prior to the high I can and will be advising my membership the the risk of a crash increases.

        It’s an exercise in probability, not certainty.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The Angry Majority.
    The People's Champion vs The People's Prosecutor: It is the news media’s job to elicit information from politicians – not to prosecute them. Peters’ promise to sort out TVNZ should be believed. If he finds himself in a position to carry out his threat, then it will only be because ...
    Bowalley Road
    4 hours ago

  • Verrall is chuffed by govt’s latest push into pay equity while Woods enthuses about an $11m spend ...
    Buzz from the Beehive The headline on a ministerial press statement curiously expresses the government’s position when it declares:   Government shows further commitment to pay equity for healthcare workers. Is it not enough to declare just one commitment? Or is the government’s commitment to pay equity being declared sector by ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 hours ago

  • A very worthy coalition partner for Seymour and Luxon
    There have been 53 New Zealand Parliaments so far. The 39th of them was elected in 1978. It was a parliament of 92 MPs, most of them men. The New Zealand Music Awards that year named John Rowles Male Vocalist of the Year and — after a short twelve months ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 hours ago

  • Labour still protecting the status quo
    Aotearoa has a cost of living crisis. And one of the major drivers of this crisis is the supermarket duopoly, who gouge every dollar they can out of us. Last year, the Commerce Commission found that the duopoly was in fact anti-competititve, giving the government social licence to fix the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 hours ago

  • Gordon Campbell on National’s myths about the desolated state of the economy
    Familiarity breeds consent. If you repeat the line “six years of economic mis-management” about 10,000 times, it sounds like the received wisdom, whatever the evidence to the contrary. Yes, the global pandemic and the global surge in inflation that came in its wake occurred here as well – but if ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    7 hours ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: Hapless Hipkins and his racism
    Michael Bassett writes – Without so much as batting an eyelid, Chris Hipkins told an audience on Saturday that there had been “more racism” in this election campaign than ever before. And he blamed it on the opposition parties, National, Act and New Zealand First. In those ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 hours ago

  • BRIAN EASTON: The ‘recession’ has been called off, but some households are still struggling
    While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates. Brian Easton writes – Last week’s announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    9 hours ago

  • Monday’s Chorus: Richie Poulton's lament
    “You can't really undo what happens during childhood”, said the director of the Dunedin longitudinal study. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Richie Poulton, the director of the world-leading Dunedin longitudinal study showing how devastating poverty in early life is, died yesterday. With his final words, he lamented the lack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    13 hours ago

  • North-western downgrades
    This is a guest post from reader Peter N As many of us know, Auckland Transport and Waka Kotahi are well into progressing works on the northwestern interim “busway” with services to kick off in just over a month from now on Sunday 12th November 2023. Some of the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    13 hours ago

  • Has Webworm Found New Zealand’s Weirdest School?
    Hi,Before we talk about weird schools people choose to send their kids to, a few things on my mind. I adored the Ask Me Anything we did last week. Thanks for taking part. I love answering your weird and nosy questions, even questions about beans.I am excited and scared as Mister ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    14 hours ago

  • Another mother of a budget
    A National government would make spending cuts on a scale not seen since the 1990 – 96 Bolger government.That much was confirmed with the release of their Fiscal Plan on Friday.Government spending is currently high as a percentage of GDP — as high as it was during the Muldoon ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    16 hours ago

  • A crucial week starts as early voting opens in the NZ Elections … it’s been a ride so far. Are y...
    Chris Hipkins down with Covid, at least for 5 days isolation, National continue to obfuscate, ACT continues to double-down on the poor and Winston… well, he’s being Winston really. Voters beware: this week could be even more infuriating than the last. No Party is what they used to be ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    24 hours ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #39
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 24, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 30, 2023. Story of the Week We’re not doomed yet’: climate scientist Michael Mann on our last chance to save human civilisation The renowned US ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • Clusterf**ck of Chaos.
    On the 11th of April 1945 advancing US forces liberated the Nazi concentration camp of Buchenwald near Weimar in Germany. In the coming days, under the order of General Patton, a thousand nearby residents were forced to march to the camp to see the atrocities that had been committed in ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • The party of business deals with the future by pretending it isn’t coming
    Years and years ago, when Helen Clark was Prime Minister and John Key was gunning for her job, I had a conversation with a mate, a trader who knew John Key well enough to paint a helpful picture.It was many drinks ago so it’s not a complete one. But there’s ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • 2023 More Reading: September (+ Old Phuul update)
    Completed reads for September: The Lost Continent, by C.J. Cutcliffe Hyne Flatland, by Edwin Abbott All Quiet on the Western Front, by Erich Maria Remarque The Country of the Blind, by H.G. Wells The Day of the Triffids, by John Wyndham A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    2 days ago

  • Losing The Left.
    Descending Into The Dark: The ideological cadres currently controlling both Labour and the Greens are forcing “justice”, “participation” and “democracy” to make way for what is “appropriate” and “responsible”. But, where does that leave the people who, for most of their adult lives, have voted for left-wing parties, precisely to ...
    Bowalley Road
    2 days ago

  • The New “Emperor’s New Clothes”.
    “‘BUT HE HASN’T GOT ANYTHING ON,’ a little boy said ….. ‘But he hasn’t got anything on!’ the whole town cried out at last.”On this optimistic note, Hans Christian Andersen brings his cautionary tale of “The Emperor’s New Clothes” to an end.Andersen’s children’s story was written nearly two centuries ago, ...
    Bowalley Road
    2 days ago

  • BRYCE EDWARDS: The vested interests shaping National Party policies
      Bryce Edwards writes – As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: A conundrum for those pushing racist dogma
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – The heavily promoted narrative, which has ramped up over the last six years, is that Maori somehow have special vulnerabilities which arise from outside forces they cannot control; that contemporary society fails to meet their needs. They are not receptive to messages and ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER:  The greater of two evils
    Not Labour: If you’re out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.   Chris Trotter writes – THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • The Hoon around the week to Sept 30
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Labour presented a climate manifesto that aimed to claim the high ground on climate action vs National, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Litanies, articles of faith, and being a beneficiary
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Litanies, articles of faith, and being a beneficiary
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • The ‘Recession’ Has Been Called Off, But Some Households Are Still Struggling
    While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates.Last week’s announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for the June quarter had the commentariat backing down ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: The wrong direction
    This week the International Energy Association released its Net Zero Roadmap, intended to guide us towards a liveable climate. The report demanded huge increases in renewable generation, no new gas or oil, and massive cuts to methane emissions. It was positive about our current path, but recommended that countries with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • “Racism” becomes a buzz word on the campaign trail – but our media watchdogs stay muzzled when...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Oh, dear.  We have nothing to report from the Beehive. At least, we have nothing to report from the government’s official website. But the drones have not gone silent.  They are out on the election campaign trail, busy buzzing about this and that in the hope ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Play it, Elvis
    Election Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t have time for. You’re welcome, etc. Let us press on, etc. 1.  What did Christopher Luxon use to his advantage in ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Pure class warfare
    National unveiled its fiscal policy today, announcing all the usual things which business cares about and I don't. But it did finally tell us how National plans to pay for its handouts to landlords: by effectively cutting benefits: The biggest saving announced on Friday was $2b cut from the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Ask Me Anything about the week to Sept 29
    Photo by Anna Ogiienko on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week for an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session for paying subscribers about the week that was for an hour, including:duelling fiscal plans from National and Labour;Labour cutting cycling spending while accusing National of being weak on climate;Research showing the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Weekly Roundup 29-September-2023
    Welcome to Friday and the last one for September. This week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Matt highlighted at the latest with the City Rail Link. On Tuesday, Matt covered the interesting items from Auckland Transport’s latest board meeting agendas. On Thursday, a guest post from Darren Davis ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago

  • Protest at Parliament: The Reunion.
    Brian’s god spoke to him. He, for of course the Lord in Tamaki’s mind was a male god, with a mighty rod, and probably some black leathers. He, told Brian - “you must put a stop to all this love, hope, and kindness”. And it did please the Brian.He said ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Labour cuts $50m from cycleway spending
    Labour is cutting spending on cycling infrastructure while still trying to claim the higher ground on climate. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Labour Government released a climate manifesto this week to try to claim the high ground against National, despite having ignored the Climate Commission’s advice to toughen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • The Greater Of Two Evils.
    Not Labour: If you’re out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very rarely is an opposition party elected ...
    Bowalley Road
    4 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2023
    Open access notables "Net zero is only a distraction— we just have to end fossil fuel emissions." The latter is true but the former isn't, or  not in the real world as it's likely to be in the immediate future. And "just" just doesn't enter into it; we don't have ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Chris Trotter: Losing the Left
    IN THE CURRENT MIX of electoral alternatives, there is no longer a credible left-wing party. Not when “a credible left-wing party” is defined as: a class-oriented, mass-based, democratically-structured political organisation; dedicated to promoting ideas sharply critical of laissez-faire capitalism; and committed to advancing democratic, egalitarian and emancipatory ideals across the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Hipkins fires up in leaders’ debate, but has the curtain already fallen on the Labour-led coalitio...
    Labour’s  Chris Hipkins came out firing, in the  leaders’ debate  on Newshub’s evening programme, and most of  the pundits  rated  him the winner against National’s  Christopher Luxon. But will this make any difference when New  Zealanders  start casting their ballots? The problem  for  Hipkins is  that  voters are  all too ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Govt is energising housing projects with solar power – and fuelling the public’s concept of a di...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Not long after Point of Order published data which show the substantial number of New Zealanders (77%) who believe NZ is becoming more divided, government ministers were braying about a programme which distributes some money to “the public” and some to “Maori”. The ministers were dishing ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • MIKE GRIMSHAW: Election 2023 – a totemic & charisma failure?
    The D&W analysis Michael Grimshaw writes –  Given the apathy, disengagement, disillusionment, and all-round ennui of this year’s general election, it was considered time to bring in those noted political operatives and spin doctors D&W, the long-established consultancy firm run by Emile Durkheim and Max Weber. Known for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • FROM BFD: Will Winston be the spectre we think?
    Kissy kissy. Cartoon credit BoomSlang. The BFD. JC writes-  Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former. This week Luxon declared his position, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • California’s climate disclosure bill could have a huge impact across the U.S.
    This re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Andy Furillo was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The California Legislature took a step last week that has the potential to accelerate the fight against climate ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Untangling South East Queensland’s Public Transport
    This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago

  • Try A Little Kindness.
    My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • What makes NZFirst tick
    New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • September AMA
    Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago

  • Bludgers lying in the scratcher making fools of us all
    The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving. They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • More “partnerships” (by the look of it) and redress of over $30 million in Treaty settlement wit...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point of Order has waited until now – 3.45pm – for today’s officially posted government announcements.  There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehive’s website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • ALEX HOLLAND: Labour’s spending
    Alex Holland writes –  In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealand’s government debt ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • If not now, then when?
    Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • THE FACTS:  77% of Kiwis believe NZ is becoming more divided
    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    5 days ago

  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    6 days ago

  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago

  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    6 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago

  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago

  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago

  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand resumes peacekeeping force leadership
    New Zealand will again contribute to the leadership of the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, with a senior New Zealand Defence Force officer returning as Interim Force Commander. Defence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced the deployment of New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago

  • New national direction provides clarity for development and the environment
    The Government has taken an important step in implementing the new resource management system, by issuing a draft National Planning Framework (NPF) document under the new legislation, Environment Minister David Parker said today. “The NPF consolidates existing national direction, bringing together around 20 existing instruments including policy statements, standards, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago

  • Government shows further commitment to pay equity for healthcare workers
    The Government welcomes the proposed pay equity settlement that will see significant pay increases for around 18,000 Te Whatu Ora Allied, Scientific, and Technical employees, if accepted said Health Minister Ayesha Verrall. The proposal reached between Te Whatu Ora, the New Zealand Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago

  • 100 new public EV chargers to be added to national network
    The public EV charging network has received a significant boost with government co-funding announced today for over 100 EV chargers – with over 200 charging ports altogether – across New Zealand, and many planned to be up and running on key holiday routes by Christmas this year. Minister of Energy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Safeguarding Tuvalu language and identity
    Tuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu – Tuvalu Language Week. “The Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,” Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Many ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
    Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilience
    The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solar
    The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Appointment of District Court Judge
    Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today.  Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
    The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
    Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
    The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
    The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
    The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
    Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Strong export boost as NZ economy turns corner
    An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
    The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
    The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
    Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General Assembly
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Midwives’ pay equity offer reached
    Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
    Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
    The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today.  A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

  • Government invests in Greymouth’s future
    The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

  • Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2023-10-02T08:22:56+00:00