Hickey on surpluses and Key’s bullshit

Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, December 4th, 2016 - 36 comments
Categories: debt / deficit, economy, john key, slippery - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Bernard Hickey is essential reading. Particularly so as one of the precious few commentators who is prepared to call Key on his bullshit, as he does today in The Herald:

Bernard Hickey: Show us the money, John

So which Treasury forecasts should we rely on, Prime Minister?

Next week Treasury is expected to unveil a bountiful set of Budget surplus forecasts for the next four years that allows us to have it all – tax cuts, extra social spending, two major quake rebuilds and debt repayment.

Key has very literally claimed that the government will “do it all”. Back to Hickey…

But Key’s reliance on those forecasts for some big talking certainly jarred just two days after he rubbished the Treasury’s forecasts in its Long Term Fiscal Outlook delivered last week. Under the same Public Finance Act, the Treasury has to forecast at least once every four years what the Government’s books will look like by 2060 if it continues on with its current settings.

Treasury pointed out for the third time in the current National Government that an ageing population allied to the current settings for New Zealand Superannuation would blow out the Crown’s net debt to over 200 per cent of GDP by 2060 from 25 per cent now.

The Treasury warnings were exceptionally forthright – Brian Fallow: Future written in red ink – but back to Hickey…

Key had not forgotten when he was asked if he was betting his legacy on Treasury getting its long term forecasts wrong.

“I’m telling you it’s a load of nonsense, because they can’t get predictions in 44 days right, let alone in 44 years.”

It is extraordinary for the Prime Minister to call the Treasury’s short and long term forecasts a “load of nonsense” and yet rely on the medium term ones to promise all manner of riches to voters on the eve of an election.

Nailed it right there.

Treasury’s forecasts are worthy of respect. Key may well be right that the Government can afford it all for the next few years, but if that was the case it should also address those longer term challenges evident in the Treasury’s long term forecasts.

Key doesn’t give a stuff about long term problems.

One way to credibly address the issue is to use the good times now to prepare for the longer term challenges. As Labour’s finance minister Michael Cullen resisted Key’s calls from 2005 to 2008 for big tax cuts and instead set up the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and KiwiSaver.

And there you have it. But a mass of other “opinion” writers prefer slick bullshit to competent government. They do us all a disservice.

36 comments on “Hickey on surpluses and Key’s bullshit ”

  1. One Anonymous Bloke 1

    Boom!

  2. Keith 2

    You can have tax cuts or you can have good public services.

    Another article on RNZ’s site speaks volumes of the cost cutting to the NZ Police to pay for those tax cuts and the terribly predictable result for the people of Northland. Nowhere near enough cops, very low morale from those in that job there doing less with less and the public essentially left without law enforcement. It is no coincidence in this lawless climate that murders are on the up. All this from National who were “going to get tough on crime”.
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/insight/audio/201826014/insight-can-police-tackle-the-'lawless-north

    Thing is it is not only Northland, its the Waikato and the Hawkes Bay and Bay of Plenty and I could go on and on, they are all similarly struggling. And equally worrying is it the same in Auckland, Wellington etc but the only thing partially holding things together is they can borrow staff from other areas to sort of plug holes in the dyke. But the coverage is very poor none the less. These cut backs mean cops do less and people can die when that happens and we have an infamous example of that very recently in Auckland.

    National have done a remarkable job to bury the bad news but I am afraid to say the shit is hitting the fan big time and lying is not cutting it!

    Time for a change of government!

  3. mosa 3

    ” Key does not care about long term problems ”

    Of course not he governs and makes decisions on keeping power at every election and keeping the middle class and vested interests happy.

    The tough decisions are always left to a Labour government to tidy up as was the case in 1999 and when this current love affair ends Labour will have to get us back to the harsh reality that Key is hiding from.

    I would listen and pay attention to Hickey not because he is honest but he knows what he is talking about and can see through the irresponsibility of Key and English.

    The problem with Super is it needs planning and savings now to deal with what will be a major cost to the country starting now.

    Key wants that fourth term badly but is he prepared to to start governing responsibly in that next term to face the problems he should have acted on eight years ago as sooner or later he or his replacement will be facing the full effects if they dont and want to stay in government.

    • KJT 3.1

      The trouble with super, like any social spending, is the more wealthy, who benefit the most from Government spending anyway, need to pay enough taxes.

      Just like Greece, the rest of us are expected to pay back the borrowing needed because the rich, who are the greatest drain on resources, are allowed to avoid taxes.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.2

      The problem with Super is it needs planning and savings now to deal with what will be a major cost to the country starting now.

      Wrong. It needs planning, yes, but we don’t need to save money. Money is nothing and saving money saves nothing. In fact, money sitting in a ‘savings’ account should be taxed so that it will reduce to zero over time.

      What’s needed is the economy to be developed so that it can operate at the same or greater level that it does today with less people working in it. In other words, we need to increase productivity enough to cover the loss of those retiring while still being able to maintain those people at an adequate standard of living. This is something we’re not doing and all the wealth that we need to do it is a) being sold offshore and b) is being placed in the control of the rich.

      • mosa 3.2.1

        Sure Draco unless the economy performs and delivers to pay for what we need to fund and we change the idea that exporting all our wealth is futile then we are caught in a never ending cycle that achieves nothing.

        We need a total change in direction because it is simply not working as it should and only for a few.

  4. Tony P 4

    Rod Oram has said much the same thing in the Sunday Star Times today. Somebody else who knows what he is talking about.

    • mosa 4.1

      Yes dead right there Tony.

      Oram is excellent and his regular column is the only thing i miss since i stopped buying that paper.

  5. Siobhan 5

    I know its wrong, I know as well as anyone the pain and carnage and thwarted lives another term of National will bring…but there is a small part of me that hopes National can limp through another term as the wheels fall further off the cart.
    Then maybe, maybe, the swing voters who support National can get a clearer picture of what they have done to this country, all because they didn’t like Helen telling them to use energy efficient light bulbs or whatever..and then maybe they can realise the folly of repeatedly voting in a Government that comes to elections with no clear declaration of their true intentions, other than some crap about tax cuts.
    Then, maybe, we can have a true strong Labour Government (and coalition) that, between then, comes in with a Landslide victory, based on a good old fashioned vision of Strong communities, and a fair, compassionate and decent society.

  6. red-blooded 6

    Hey, let’s all work for victory this time! It doesn’t have to be a landslide (this lot are operating on one seat); it just has to be a victory. Another term with Key and co adds layers of crap that have to be undone and recovered from before there can be true social progress. Plus, each loss adds to the “Labour is dead” meme. Rather than waiting for a perfect storm (and letting people squat in their cars, our social housing stock gifted to other “providers”, our schools attacked and our hospitals crumbling…) I’m out there working for victory this time and I challenge any of you who aren’t to find the party that’s the best fit for you and get on with it.

  7. RedBaronCV 7

    Well the next non NACT government could ask all those people who have done so well under the current government to assist with repaying the debts created.
    How about :
    An annual levy on those who entered NZ under the wealthy migrant schemes so they can pay for their share of the infra-structure they are using.
    Annual levies on property owned by offshore interests related to the value of the property
    Annual levies on property owners who are not domiciled here for tax purposes.

    A couple of once off levies on the high income earners over the last few years ( they can have time to pay) to recoup their tax reductions.

    Some once off levies on overseas companies relating to their annual turnover in NZ/Worldwide turnover x worldwide profits x a thumping % less the small amount of tax they may have paid.
    Make all this equivalent & enough to pay back the national debt over three years.

    In education – no grants to sectors who have had heaps. High fees private schools should expect no aid for a number of years – also charter schools – destiny schools etc. Use the money to shore up our mouldy state schools.

    The possiblities are endless but we need to grab back the amounts that have been leached out of our economy.

  8. Thinkerr 8

    It’s called a ‘bow-wave’.

    The medium term forecast is full of promise, but come time to deliver, the medium term will be the short term, and we know how inaccurate those forecasts are.

    So, while it looked like you could have it all, unfortunately you can’t, and it’s not our fault.

  9. Draco T Bastard 9

    “I’m telling you it’s a load of nonsense, because they can’t get predictions in 44 days right, let alone in 44 years.”

    It’s probably more likely to get long term projections right than short term ones as they’re looking at trends rather than trying for precise numbers. And Treasuries predictions on the surplus wasn’t weren’t all that inaccurate either.

  10. Adrian Thornton 10

    While this is all true about National, and of course I despise their nefarious ideology, the elephant in the room is that Labour is still itself tied to essitianly the same free market, laisser-faire economic principles as National, and this economic ideology and nothing else ultimately guides all our domestic policies, so whom ever gets power in the up coming election matters little, the overall direction of the country will remain the same, sad but true.
    Turn Labour Left.
    Citizens not consumers.

    • Draco T Bastard 10.1

      +1

    • red-blooded 10.2

      That’s all very well, Adrian, but the Socialist Union Party has never exactly thrived at the ballot box, has it? The fact is that we live in a democracy and that means that any party who wants to govern us has to win votes from middle NZers, not just committed socialists. Putting aside the issue of whether true socialist financial policies would work in the 21st century world of the international market (and that’s the world we live in), it’s pretty hard to imagine a NZ in which enough voters were convinced that these were the right policies to follow and voted in a government with the power to act on them.

      That doesn’t mean that we should abandon attempts to create a fairer, more empowering society, to fund our health system, education system, support for the disadvantaged, protection for our natural environment… etc. It just means that we have to get on with working to improve the world we live in rather than waiting for the glorious day of the revolution.

      Right, rant over… I’m off to celebrate the by-election win.

      • mosa 10.2.1

        Red Blooded Kiwis cant decide if they are Socialists or Capitalists !

        They want privileges but dont want to be taxed to pay for it.

        • JanM 10.2.1.1

          Most people I know are perfectly ok with paying their fair share of tax to provide a fair and orderly society. I’m sure every country has it’s share of the dim, short-sighted and greedy – the last 30 years of me-tooism hasn’t exactly helped of course.

        • I’m pretty sure kiwis want the better deal for ordinary people, (“working people” being the usual catchphrase) they don’t particularly care whether that deal comes through tax cuts or social spending, so it’s up to those of us who know that, by and large, government spending is more efficient than tax cuts, to turn boring facts into a convincing emotive argument.

      • Adrian Thornton 10.2.2

        @red-blooded, I admire your optimism in working within the Labour structure as it exists now, for more equal and fair society etc.
        However you surely must understand that the economic ideology that Labour chooses to have as the foundation of the party will always dominate the ultimate direction of the party, and it’s domestic policies, it has too, they have no choice, that is how ideologies function.
        Sure under Labour the citizens of New Zealand will have a few more wins, maybe we feel that we get a touch more equality, etc, but all the while Labour, if in power would be driving the country in basically the same direction as National, just at 60 kph instead of Nationals 110 toward the same cliff.

        • red-blooded 10.2.2.1

          Adrian, for any left-leaning party to gain power, it has to gain votes. For it to stay in power, it has to retain them. Do you really see a lot of people who currently don’t vote waiting for a party with a harder-left financial perspective to come along? Yes, I know about the “missing million” – but do you think they’re missing because they are committed socialists who won’t dilute their principals and therefore will only vote for a hard-left party? ‘Cos I don’t.

          Labour (just like other parties and social movements) has evolved and changed over time. Current feminists don’t have exactly the same world-view as the suffragettes of the 19th century. That’s not because either generation is/was wrong – they are/were simply of their time. Upcoming generations will have different priorities again.

          In a way, this links to why I see a written constitution as a potential negative: one generation of thinkers get to put upcoming generations into a straight-jacket of their beliefs and values. Witness the absurdity of the 5th amendment in the US. I know that’s wandering from original point a bit, but basically I’m saying that the core values of the Labour Party are still the same; it’s the means to the end that has changed over time, and that’s it’s perfectly natural for that to change.

          • garibaldi 10.2.2.1.1

            Red-blooded I can understand your compromise position cf Adrian (who thinks along the same lines as myself) but when you say that Labour still has its core values then all I can say is that it’s a pity they ignored them for the last 30 years. Maybe they have come right ( as we keep being told) or maybe they are just trying to be “3rd way mk2”. As far as I’m concerned we are still waiting for the evidence.

          • Olwyn 10.2.2.1.2

            Do you really see a lot of people who currently don’t vote waiting for a party with a harder-left financial perspective to come along? Yes, I know about the “missing million” – but do you think they’re missing because they are committed socialists who won’t dilute their principals…

            To begin with you are conflating real need and privation with an ideological position. More importantly, it is now abundantly clear that within a neoliberal framework, those who are of no use to the powerful must be kicked to the kerb, e.g. the ex-working class of wealthy countries. The establishment left has been allotted liberalism as their patch. Goff saw that PC, accompanied by few material gains pissed people off, and made a bid for a new patch, the Waitakere tradesman – still middle class but without the PC curse. It didn’t work for him.

            I accept that a party needs more than just the worst off to get elected. But if it is to continue to exist, they must be included within it broad base. Which demands courage and a willingness to push against the boundaries of the neoliberal allotted space. If you can’t push back when people are being kicked out of houses for false accusations of P use, or when a mine containing 29 workers’ bodies is being sealed to their relatives’ horror, then your purpose is a very limited one.

            • red-blooded 10.2.2.1.2.1

              “To begin with you are conflating real need and privation with an ideological position. ”

              No, I’m not – I’m suggesting that maybe Adrian is, and it seems to me that maybe you are, too. There are plenty of conservative, right-leaning people who are working class, just as there are plenty of progressive, left-leaning people in the professional class.

              As for pushing back against evictions from state houses or the sealing of Pike River, Labour has pushed hard on those issues (which, btw, aren’t particularly relevant to the point I was making about the lack of demand for a “hard left” party, but do serve well to illustrate my point that Labour still lives by and acts on its core values).

              • Olwyn

                My point is that Labour needs to push against the boundaries of its allotted space if it is to remain relevant. I put forward the alleged P houses and the horror of Pike River as events that show why they must.

              • KJT

                When Labour adopted Neo-liberalism and social vandalism in the 80’s their vote dropped to 14%.

                National has had to keep and adopt, or pretend to adopt many “socialist” policies to stay in power.

                The only party that is open about anti welfare and privitisation, “free market” policies, ACT, has to be thrown electoral lifelines.
                Whereas Greens are consistently over 11% despite relentless anti Green propaganda.

                This suggests to me that the majority of New Zealanders want a fair country where we look after people, capitalism is democratically managed for equity and sustainability, and we have democratic control.

                The overwhelming endorsement for MMP is because we wanted to prevent Governments going nuts like 1984 Labour and 1990 National.

                I suggest, the lack of votes for a Democratic socialist alternative is because it has not been offered.

          • Adrian Thornton 10.2.2.1.3

            @red-blooded, Sorry I believe you are wrong.
            As I am sure you well know, Left/progressive political parties in America/the UK, New Zealand and others have been, (approx 25 years ago) co opted by a few radical economic extremists, who have exposed the citizens to their dogma of unfettered greed and want. This was all well and fine for about 20 years, but any economy based solely on endless growth, forcing it’s workers compete with third world labour, bullying it’s citizens into becoming speculating, gambling addicts, not savers and trading their houses like used cars etc, is not going to end well.
            And it isn’t.
            Look at the States, The Democratic party has just suffered the most humiliating defeat in it’s history, the Party itself, exposed as a cesspool of political corruption and nepotism, totally and utterly out of touch with working America and the poor.
            Hillary could hardly fill a school hall at times, Sanders, a self described Socialist was consistently getting 20.000 and more people at his rallies.
            Remember Sanders got 12.2 million primary votes opposed to Trump who got 13.3, but with his own party actively acting against him, and the media all but ignoring him…
            Witness the UK, Labour basically kicked out of Scotland, the citizens so disgusted with it’s non functioning centrist Labour, that the Socialist Jeremy Corbyn swept to power in the leadership race, facing not only the wrath of the very structures and power of his own party, but ALL UK media…and he not only won, he also built the UK Labour party into the biggest Left Party in Europe.
            Do you really think that we live in such a bubble in NZ, that at some point soon, we on the Left will not face similar challenges and questions?
            Of course we will, and NZ labour would look just as insipid, hollow and bereft of a sane political ideology as the Third way UK Labour Party and the Democrats did…unless we Turn Labour Left!

            • red-blooded 10.2.2.1.3.1

              Adrian, the UK and US are both stuck with FPP and the resultant two-party dynamic that forces people with little in common to coexist in one party and squabble over its direction. I’m not saying that this doesn’t happen here at all, but it’s certainly less embedded. Why? Because there are different parties to represent different belief systems and people who don’t see eye to eye can split into new parties. Witness Labour, New Labour, The Alliance, The Greens, The Māori Party, Mana, ACT… Ditto National, NZ First, ACT (they came from both parties), The Conservatives, The Christian Alliance…

              Sanders enjoyed a following in the US, but he didn’t win the nomination. Get over it. Corbyn enjoys a following in the UK, but whether he can win an election is still very much in doubt. Good luck to him. Neither is particularly relevant to NZ, simply because we use a different system.

              A final word: if you want Labour to go further left, then get involved and try to persuade its members that this is the direction to take. If you just want to sit on the sidelines and opine, don’t be too surprised if your injunctions fail to resonate.

              • Adrian Thornton

                @red-blooded, OK, great point on the FPP vs MMP, this certainly has resulted a dilution of a strong single opposition voice.
                However I am still certain a passionate inspired and coherent voice from the Left, espousing those old Left values and ideals around equality for all, fair pay for all, a political party that actually promotes itself proudly as a party that really cares and respects all of it’s citizens, all this communicated with real authenticity and conviction, would resonate in communities of both above and below the medium wage, and maybe even that fickle middle class, it certainly would mobilize most of their children and grandchildren that is for sure.

                As far as Sanders goes, I am over it, I was just making a point, and please don’t start on the doubts around Corbyn’s electability, what more do you want from a Labour leader? He saves a redundant Labour party from political oblivion and ignites it with real political commitment from a whole new generation of voters, and you still can’t cut him some slack, that my friend, is very strange.

                Lastly, I and my wife are already very active politically, I choose not to be involved in the local Labour party because we have two serious centrists here, Anna Lorke, the promoter and advocate of immigrant labour, and that notorious third way, free market proponent and friend of Mattew Hooteen, Stuart Nash.
                However our book shop is the center of quite an active local political awareness, and daily discussions and debates are routine, I am also active in a more, shall we say, direct action way, so yes I am very involved.
                Thanks for the debate.

    • Yep. This is why I go around calling them out as centrists in other posts.

      Labour needs a bigger economic difference from National than it’s currently calling for.

  11. Incognito 11

    Of course, Treasury’s long-term forecasts are wrong. People seem to think that these models somehow hit their target like a cruise missile like hitting the bull’s-eye – some people should know better.

    It is intrinsic to all models to carry errors of estimate, just like political polls. However, the function of Treasury’s Long-Term Fiscal Position is to provide information to policy makers to change the trajectory when/where necessary; this is the whole point of these forecasts – they are not meant to hit the ‘bull’s-eye’ or whatever.

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    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
    1 day ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
    1 day ago
  • Out of Touch.
    “I’ve been internalising a really complicated situation in my head.”When they kept telling us we should wait until we get to know him, were they taking the piss? Was it a case of, if you think this is bad, wait till you get to know the real Christopher, after the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The bewildering world of Chris Luxon – Guns for all, not no lunch for kids
    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Echoes of 1968 in 2024?  Pocock on the repetitive problems of the New Left
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Two bar blues
    The thing about life’s little victories is that they can be followed by a defeat.Reader Darryl told me on Monday night:Test again Dave. My “head cold” last week became COVID within 24 hours, and is still with me. I hear the new variants take a bit longer to show up ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 13
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Angus Deaton on rethinking his economics IMFLocal scoop: The people behind Tamarind, the firm that left a $500m cleanup bill for taxpayers at Taranaki’s Tui oil well, are back operating in Taranaki under a different company name. Jonathan ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
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  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
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  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
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