Housing: the options, the new left narrative?
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11:07 am, September 13th, 2013 - 75 comments
Categories: capital gains, class war, david cunliffe, democratic participation, election 2014, greens, labour, local government, mana, Metiria Turei, sustainability, vision, workers' rights -
Tags: john minto
Metiria Turei’s appearance this week on the anti-current events, infotainment show The Vote, has raised the issue of how oppositions parties will talk about their housing policies, as we count down to next year’s election. As some commented under my post yesterday, the left needs to develop a more savvy way to deal with right wing attacks on policies to improve housing affordability for renters and buyers on mid-low incomes.
keep haranguing Turei for advocating the lowering of the value of their properties for many home owners.
this.
I think Key & Co will push this angle really hard. How should the left counter this? It’s tricky because, quite plausibly, it is true that the value of houses will come down.
Tim Watkin’s post on Pundit yesterday took a similar line, but more in praise of the shabby Vote episode than in criticism.
But just as powerful is the anti-narrative – the story your opponents try to stick on you – and on last night’s The Vote we saw two examples that give us an insight on how next year’s election battle could unfold.
[…]Turei got caught out by a simple questions; “Do you want house prices to drop?” It’s one thing to fret about housing affordability, to say how prices are out of control even and fear a bubble. But to tell the more than one million mortgage holders in New Zealand — including many of the deeply indebted Auckland liberals who vote Green — that they should be willing to take a hit on their biggest asset, well, the hashtag #politicalsuicide was used on Twitter and wasn’t out of order.
So what are the policies, and how can they be explained clearly to the electorate in the face of everything the right will throw at them over the next year?
The Green’s housing policies include a focus on state housing: Julie Anne Genter’s press release yesterday focused on some extra tools to cool Auckland’s housing market. She is critical of the Reserve Bank’s blunt tool of interest rate manipulation:
“We need a capital gains tax, restrictions on overseas investment in residential property, a government-led programme of affordable house building, and the Greens’ Progressive Ownership plan to give young families a pathway to homeownership.
The Mana Party has put a strong focus on maintaining and improving state house provisions. This week, John Minto was critical of Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan failure to respond to the housing crisis in the city:
Minto for Mayor would build 20,000 affordable council rental homes to address the sharpest point in the crisis with other plans to promote home ownership opportunities for every New Zealand family.
Last night on Citizen A, Wayne Hope also floated the idea of Council Housing. Is this a practical option?
The Labour Party’s Kiwibuild housing policy (under Housing tab), focuses strongly on a partnership with the private sector: new homes for first time buyers, restriction of house buying by non-residents, qaulity of the rental stock, apprenticeships and house building, CGT, and provisions to ensure council approval of social housing.
Whatever the policy, it should be embedded within a wider narrative, not just one focused on housing. It should be part of a broader vision, rather than being presented as part of a piecemeal roll out of individual policies as happened under Labour’s leadership by Shearer.
Some, like James Henderson, have argued that Cunliffe is offering a new vision for the left.
I reckon Cunliffe’s fair deal will say ‘yup, if you want higher wages, you need to let workers bargain together, you need a government that is a good employer, you need a good minimum wage’ and ‘if you want affordable housing, if you want good jobs, in a country like New Zealand it’s up to Government to lead the way by building those houses, by buying Kiwi-made, and by not leaving everything to an uncaring, inefficient market’.
Hamish Rutherford on Stuff reports that it is based solidly on labour bedrock of employment reform:
“That’s bedrock David Cunliffe social democratic Labour policy. That is going to happen.”
He promised party faithful a visible change in tack from the current government. “The Labour Party I lead will be a true red Labour Party, not a pale blue one.”
Cunliffe’s vision has been outlined in his speeches over the last couple of years, and hinted at on his own campaign-focused website. It is seen in his speech at Dunedin on Monday, which includes a focus on renewables and green technology.
The Labour Government I lead will take on the vested interests of markets when necessary to guarantee the wellbeing of citizens, just as I did against the old Telecom monopoly.
Our challenge must be to build a smart and high-value economy.
However, it speaks to the politically knowledgeable labour/left base. Such a vision has yet to be clearly and sharply honed into a narrative for the broader public and distortionary MSM, using language that speaks to the hearts of New Zealanders.
Similarly, The Greens’ vision and the Mana Party’s vision speak to their core constituency rather than the wider electorate.
How can the narratives of eco-social democracy and/or (green) democratic socialism be told successful to the wider electorate?
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New Zealanders needing aged care support and the people who care for them will be worse off if the Government pushes through a flawed and rushed redesign of dementia and aged care. ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt fails hundreds of workers as mills close
Labour is devastated at news hundreds of workers are set to lose their jobs following the closure of Winstone Pulp mills. ...6 days ago
- Job losses from mill closures consequence of Govt inaction
Hundreds of jobs lost as a result of pulp mill closures in the Ruapehu District are a consequence of government inaction in addressing the shortfalls of our electricity network. ...7 days ago
- Ngarewa-Packer devastated for Ruapehu following WPI closure
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru is devastated for the Ruapehu community following today’s decision to close two Winstone Pulp mills. “My heart goes out to all the workers, their whānau, and the wider Ruapehu community affected by the closure of Winstone Pulp International,” said Ngarewa-Packer. ...1 week ago
- Release: Cabinet should stop the Treaty Principles Bill
National Party Ministers have a majority in Cabinet and can stop David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, which even the Prime Minister has described as “divisive and unhelpful.” ...1 week ago
- Release: Staff gagged to keep fast track list secret
The National Government is so determined to hide the list of potential projects that will avoid environmental scrutiny it has gagged Ministry for the Environment staff from talking about it. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour challenges Te Whatu Ora gag orders
Labour has complained to the Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission about the high number of non-disclosure agreements that have effectively gagged staff at Te Whatu Ora Health NZ from talking about anything relating to their work. ...1 week ago
- Greens call on Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned after letter from Christian leaders
The Green Party is once again urging the Prime Minister to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill as a letter from more than 400 Christian leaders calls for the proposed legislation to be dropped. ...1 week ago
- Sign the petition: Keep military-style firearms off our streets
Help us tell the Government that reintroducing military-style firearms should not be up for debate. ...1 week ago
- Vast majority of councils support Māori wards
Councils across the country have now decided where they stand regarding Māori wards, with a resounding majority in favour of keeping them in what is a significant setback for the Government. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government on the wrong side of Māori wards
The National-led government has been given a clear message from the local government sector, as almost all councils reject the Government’s bid to treat Māori wards different to other wards. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki
The Labour Party congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki on being crowned as the eighth Te Ariki Nui – head of Te Kiingitanga. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party welcomes new Maaori Kuiini
The Green Party welcomes the coronation of the new Maaori Kuiini, Te Arikinui Nga Wai Hono i te Po, today in Turangawaewae. ...2 weeks ago
- ECE teachers deserve better than this Government
The Green Party is unsurprised but disappointed by today’s announcement from the Government that will see our Early Childhood Centre teachers undermined and pay parity pushed further out of reach. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent intervention needed on supermarkets
The Green Party is calling on the Government to intervene in the supermarket duopoly dominating our supply of groceries following today’s report from the Commerce Commission. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Rainbow youth neglected in mental health funding
Labour backs the call from The Rainbow Support Collective members for mental health funding specifically earmarked for grassroots and peer led community organisations to be set up in a way that they are able to access. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Transport in NZ has to be more than just roads
As expected, the National Land Transport Programme lacks ambition for our cities and our country’s rail network and puts the majority of investment into roads. ...2 weeks ago
- Speech: Barbara Edmonds Building Nations 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa, Thank you for your warm welcome and for having my colleagues and I here today. Earlier you heard from the Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, on our vision for the future of infrastructure. I want to build on his comments and provide further detail on some key elements ...2 weeks ago
- Govt transport plan deepens fossil fuel fix
The Green Party says the Government’s new National Land Transport Programme marks another missed opportunity to take meaningful action to fight the climate crisis. ...2 weeks ago
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The Green Party is calling on the public to support the Ngutu Pare Wrybill not just in this year’s Bird of the Year competition but also in pushing back against policies that could lead to the destruction of its habitat and accelerate its extinction. ...2 weeks ago
- Building consents data bad news for construction
News that the annual number of building consents granted for new homes fell by more than 20 percent for the year ended July 2024, is bad news for the construction industry. ...3 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori Pay Tribute to Kiingi Tūheitia Pōtatau Te Wherowhero VII
Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Gaps still to be addressed in callouts response
The Government must guarantee New Zealanders will not be at risk after making changes to the way mental health callouts are handled. ...3 weeks ago
- Prioritising victims with tougher sentences
The Government has today agreed to introduce sentencing reforms to Parliament this week that will ensure criminals face real consequences for crime and victims are prioritised, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. "In recent years, there has been a concerning trend where the courts have imposed fewer and shorter prison sentences ...16 hours ago - Targets data confirms rise in violent crime
The first quarterly report on progress against the nine public service targets show promising results in some areas and the scale of the challenge in others, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “Our Government reinstated targets to focus our public sector on driving better results for New Zealanders in health, education, ...17 hours ago
- Asia Foundation Board appointments announced
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced the appointments of Hone McGregor, Professor David Capie, and John Boswell to the Board of the Asia New Zealand Foundation. Bede Corry, Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade, has also been appointed as an ex-officio member. The new trustees join Dame Fran Wilde (Chair), ...20 hours ago
- Endeavour Fund projects for economic growth
New Zealand’s largest contestable science fund is investing in 72 new projects to address challenges, develop new technology and support communities, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. “This Endeavour Fund round being funded is focused on economic growth and commercial outputs,” Ms Collins says. “It involves funding of more ...23 hours ago
- Social Services Providers Whakamanawa National Conference 16 September 2024
Thank you for the introduction and the invitation to speak to you here today. I am honoured to be here in my capacity as Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, and Minister for Children. Thank you for creating a space where we can all listen and learn, ...24 hours ago
- Parihaka infrastructure upgrades funded
The Government will provide a $5.8 million grant to improve water infrastructure at Parihaka in Taranaki, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka say. “This grant from the Regional Infrastructure Fund will have a multitude of benefits for this hugely significant cultural site, including keeping local ...1 day ago
- Serious assaults down 22% in Auckland CBD
Cross-government action to tackle crime and antisocial behaviour in Auckland is getting traction, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Our central cities should be great places to live and work, but in recent years they have become hot spots for crime and anti-social behaviour. In Auckland, businesses and residents suffered as ...2 days ago
- Increased certainty for contractors coming
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says upcoming changes to the Employment Relations Act will provide greater certainty for contractors and businesses. “These changes to legislation are necessary to ensure businesses and workers have more clarity from the start of their contracting arrangement. It is an ACT-National coalition ...2 days ago
- Draft critical minerals list released for consultation
A draft list of minerals deemed essential to New Zealand’s economy and strengthening its mineral resilience has been released for consultation, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The draft Critical Minerals List identifies 35 minerals essential to economic functions, are in demand internationally, and face high risk of supply disruption domestically ...2 days ago
- Government eliminates $190 million in trade barriers to boost the economy
The Government has successfully removed trade barriers affecting nearly $190 million worth of exports to help grow the economy, Minister for Trade and Agriculture Todd McClay today announced. “In the past year, we have resolved 14 Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs), returning significant value to kiwi exporters. These efforts directly boost our ...2 days ago
- Reo Māori the ‘beating heart’ of Aotearoa New Zealand
From private business to the Paris Olympics, reo Māori is growing with the success of New Zealanders, says Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka. “I’m joining New Zealanders across the country in celebrating this year’s Te Wiki o te Reo Māori – Māori Language Week, which has a big range ...3 days ago
- Need and value at forefront of public service delivery
New Cabinet policy directives will ensure public agencies prioritise public services on the basis of need and award Government contracts on the basis of public value, Minister for the Public Service Nicola Willis says. “Cabinet Office has today issued a circular to central government organisations setting out the Government’s expectations ...4 days ago
- Minister to attend Police Ministers Council Meeting
Police Minister Mark Mitchell will join with Australian Police Ministers and Commissioners at the Police Ministers Council meeting (PMC) today in Melbourne. “The council is an opportunity to come together to discuss a range of issues, gain valuable insights on areas of common interest, and different approaches towards law enforcement ...4 days ago
- New Bill to crack down on youth vaping
The coalition Government has introduced legislation to tackle youth vaping, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products Amendment Bill (No 2) is aimed at preventing youth vaping. “While vaping has contributed to a significant fall in our smoking rates, the rise in youth vaping ...5 days ago
- Interest in agricultural and horticultural products regulatory review welcomed
Regulation Minister David Seymour, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard have welcomed interest in the agricultural and horticultural products regulatory review. The review by the Ministry for Regulation is looking at how to speed up the process to get farmers and growers access to the safe, ...5 days ago
- Bill to allow online charity lotteries passes first reading
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government is moving at pace to ensure lotteries for charitable purposes are allowed to operate online permanently. Charities fundraising online, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, Auckland Rescue Helicopter Trust and local hospices will continue to do ...5 days ago
- Tax exempt threshold changes to benefit startups
Technology companies are among the startups which will benefit from increases to current thresholds of exempt employee share schemes, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Revenue Minister Simon Watts say. Tax exempt thresholds for the schemes are increasing as part of the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2024-25, Emergency ...5 days ago
- Getting the healthcare you need, when you need it
The path to faster cancer treatment, an increase in immunisation rates, shorter stays in emergency departments and quick assessment and treatments when you are sick has been laid out today. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has revealed details of how the ambitious health targets the Government has set will be ...5 days ago
- Targeted supports to accelerate reading
The coalition Government is delivering targeted and structured literacy supports to accelerate learning for struggling readers. From Term 1 2025, $33 million of funding for Reading Recovery and Early Literacy Support will be reprioritised to interventions which align with structured approaches to teaching. “Structured literacy will change the way children ...5 days ago
- Survivors invited to Abuse in Care national apology
With two months until the national apology to survivors of abuse in care, expressions of interest have opened for survivors wanting to attend. “The Prime Minister will deliver a national apology on Tuesday 12 November in Parliament. It will be a very significant day for survivors, their families, whānau and ...5 days ago
- Rangatahi inspire at Ngā Manu Kōrero final
Ehara taku toa i te toa takitahi, engari he toa takitini kē - My success is not mine alone but is the from the strength of the many. Aotearoa New Zealand’s top young speakers are an inspiration for all New Zealanders to learn more about the depth and beauty conveyed ...5 days ago
- Driving structured literacy in schools
The coalition Government is driving confidence in reading and writing in the first years of schooling. “From the first time children step into the classroom, we’re equipping them and teachers with the tools they need to be brilliant in literacy. “From 1 October, schools and kura with Years 0-3 will receive ...6 days ago
- Labour’s misleading information is disappointing
Labour’s misinformation about firearms law is dangerous and disappointing, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee says. “Labour and Ginny Andersen have repeatedly said over the past few days that the previous Labour Government completely banned semi-automatic firearms in 2019 and that the Coalition Government is planning to ‘reintroduce’ them. ...6 days ago
- Govt takes action on mpox response, widens access to vaccine
The Government is taking immediate action on a number of steps around New Zealand’s response to mpox, including improving access to vaccine availability so people who need it can do so more easily, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti and Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. “Mpox is obviously a ...6 days ago
- Next steps agreed for Treaty Principles Bill
Associate Justice Minister David Seymour says Cabinet has agreed to the next steps for the Treaty Principles Bill. “The Treaty Principles Bill provides an opportunity for Parliament, rather than the courts, to define the principles of the Treaty, including establishing that every person is equal before the law,” says Mr Seymour. “Parliament ...6 days ago
- Government unlocking potential of AI
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced a programme to drive Artificial Intelligence (AI) uptake among New Zealand businesses. “The AI Activator will unlock the potential of AI for New Zealand businesses through a range of support, including access to AI research experts, technical assistance, AI tools and resources, ...6 days ago
- Government releases Wairoa flood review findings
The independent rapid review into the Wairoa flooding event on 26 June 2024 has been released, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced today. “We welcome the review’s findings and recommendations to strengthen Wairoa's resilience against future events,” Ms ...6 days ago
- Promoting faster payment times for government
The Government is sending a clear message to central government agencies that they must prioritise paying invoices in a timely manner, Small Business and Manufacturing Minister Andrew Bayly says. Data released today promotes transparency by publishing the payment times of each central government agency. This data will be published quarterly ...6 days ago
- Acknowledgement to Kīngi Tuheitia speech
E te māngai o te Whare Pāremata, kua riro māku te whakaputa i te waka ki waho moana. E te Pirimia tēnā koe.Mr Speaker, it is my privilege to take this adjournment kōrero forward. Prime Minister – thank you for your leadership. Taupiri te maunga Waikato te awa Te Wherowhero ...7 days ago
- Interim fix to GST adjustment rules to support businesses
Inland Revenue can begin processing GST returns for businesses affected by a historic legislative drafting error, Revenue Minister Simon Watts says. “Inland Revenue has become aware of a legislative drafting error in the GST adjustment rules after changes were made in 2023 which were meant to simplify the process. This ...7 days ago
- Strong uptake for cervical screening self-test
More than 80 per cent of New Zealand women being tested have opted for a world-leading self-test for cervical screening since it became available a year ago. Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti and Associate Minister Casey Costello, in her responsibility for Women’s Health, say it’s fantastic to have such ...7 days ago
- Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document sets ambitious direction
Regulation Minister David Seymour welcomes the Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document, which sets out how the Ministry will carry out its work and deliver on its purpose. “I have set up the Ministry for Regulation with three tasks. One, to cut existing red tape with sector reviews. Two, ...7 days ago
- Māori Education Advisory Group established
The Education Minister has established a Māori Education Ministerial Advisory Group made up of experienced practitioners to help improve outcomes for Māori learners. “This group will provide independent advice on all matters related to Māori education in both English medium and Māori medium settings. It will focus on the most impactful ways we can lift ...7 days ago
- Government welcomes findings of NZ Superannuation Fund review
The Government has welcomed the findings of the recent statutory review into the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis says. The 5-yearly review, conducted on behalf of Treasury and tabled in Parliament today, found the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation ...7 days ago
- First of five new Hercules aircraft takes flight
Defence Minister Judith Collins today welcomed the first of five new C-130J-30 Hercules to arrive in New Zealand at a ceremony at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base Auckland, Whenuapai. “This is an historic day for our New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and our nation. The new Hercules fleet ...7 days ago
- Have your say on suicide prevention
Today, September 10 is World Suicide Prevention Day, a time to reflect on New Zealand’s confronting suicide statistics, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “Every death by suicide is a tragedy – a tragedy that affects far too many of our families and communities in New Zealand. We must do ...1 week ago
- Action to grow the rural health workforce
Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...1 week ago
- Pharmac delivering more for Kiwis following major funding boost
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...1 week ago
- Sport Minister congratulates NZ’s Paralympians
Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris. “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...1 week ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 weeks ago
- Democraticising stocks: At 33, Brooke Roberts leads an investment platform valued at $500 million
At 33, Brooke Roberts leads a $500m investment platform. She believes if you have $5 to invest, you should have the same choices. ...55 mins ago - New data reveals rates of family violence among those who died by suicide
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University Shutterstock Domestic, family and sexual violence is rightly recognised as a national crisis. While the evidence base has built significantly in recent years, one important missing piece ...1 hour ago - How perpetrators of domestic violence use drugs and alcohol to control their victims
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Humphreys, Professor of Social Work, The University of Melbourne panitanphoto/Shutterstock At least three decades of research on the intersection of substance use with domestic and family violence consistently shows the frequency, severity and impact of violence increases in the context ...1 hour ago
- ‘Pirate birds’ force other seabirds to regurgitate fish meals. Their thieving ways could spread ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Gorta, PhD Candidate in ecology, UNSW Sydney Skuas chase a gannet to force it to regurgitate its meal Bob Brewer/Unsplash, CC BY-NC-ND It’s not easy finding food at sea. Seabirds often stay aloft, scanning the churning waters for elusive prey. Most ...1 hour ago
- Are kiwi and moa recent immigrants from Australia? Neither fossils nor genetic evidence support the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Rawlence, Associate Professor in Ancient DNA, University of Otago Marty Melville/AFP/Getty Images Aotearoa New Zealand is a land of birds, from the smallest of wrens to the mightiest of moa. The ancestors of some species have been here for tens ...1 hour ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University Bricolage/Shutterbox For many Australians, the family home is their largest financial asset. With an increasing variety of ways to tap into home equity, the temptation to access this wealth ...1 hour ago
- Are credit checks for ‘buy now, pay later’ schemes enough?
Providers like Afterpay don’t have to carry out affordability tests and were recently allowed to set fees at whatever level they like, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in your inbox every weekday morning, sign up here. ...2 hours ago - Nursing jobs ‘ghosted’ as Health NZ cuts costs
Te Whatu Ora insists recruitment has continued, but staff say their colleagues aren't being replaced. ...3 hours ago
- Live: Focus on Government law and order efforts
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon can't put a timeframe on when law and order policies will start to reduce the number of victims. ...3 hours ago
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It's a stark reversal of the government's goal: 20,000 fewer victims by 2030. ...3 hours ago
- The social media app you forgot about is on every kid’s phone
With nearly 95% of young New Zealanders using Snapchat, staff writer Lyric Waiwiri-Smith looks back at the rise and fall and rise of the yellow app. It is a truth universally acknowledged, that each new generation to possess a smartphone will believe the technology habits of their elders are too ...5 hours ago
- Windbag: How Wellington’s bike network has grown, in three maps
Few cities have ever attempted to build a connected cycling network this quickly. Windbag is The Spinoff’s Wellington issues column, written by Wellington editor Joel MacManus. It’s made possible thanks to the support of The Spinoff Members. Wellington’s cycleway debate is an interminable bore. We’ve had the same mind-numbing arguments ...5 hours ago
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Years of work spanning three governments has produced a significant reform for Parliament with support from both National and Labour The post Bipartisan support for constitutional change to Parliament appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago - ‘Cognitive dissonance’ over social services cuts
Social services providers mix frustration over government funding cuts with optimism that they can weather the storm The post ‘Cognitive dissonance’ over social services cuts appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- The neoliberal attack on the Treaty of Waitangi
Opinion: The Government, led by a run-of-the-mill-corporatist, a garden-variety populist and a 10-a-penny libertarian has been considering the future of a singular and unique treaty that is at the heart of what is so special about Aotearoa New Zealand. In the guise of the Treaty Principles Bill, these politicians will ...5 hours ago
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Analysis: At least 15 times in its urgent report on the proposed law to tighten Māori marine customary rights, the Waitangi Tribunal called out one person The post A long, personal and painful read for the minister called Goldie appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- East Coast forestry industry facing the axe
“Absolutely impossible” consent conditions are causing some East Coast forestry companies to “bleed money” and this could force them to move offshore.Forestry harvesting has already ground to a halt in some areas of Tairāwhiti, part of the fallout after the district was hit by devastating cyclones Hale and Gabrielle last ...5 hours ago
- Brussels still sprouting same old stale economic plans
Opinion: EU plan reflects a deep-seated distrust of market forces and an over-reliance on state-driven solutions The post Brussels still sprouting same old stale economic plans appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- ECan pushes plan change that ‘entrenches water exploitation’
Critics pan a proposed fix after a Supreme Court decision upended how water consents are considered in Canterbury The post ECan pushes plan change that ‘entrenches water exploitation’ appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
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Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 17 September appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
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Controversy and consenting issues put sand and aggregate on the draft critical minerals list, alongside the likes of cobalt and vanadium The post Red tape earns quarrying spot on Jones’ critical minerals list appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Tuesday 17 September
The post Daily crossword, Tuesday 17 September appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Up close and friendly with Vietnam’s war resistance Củ Chi tunnels
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By David Robie in Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam’s famous Củ Chi tunnel network was on our bucket list for years. For me, it was for more than half a century, ever since I had been editor of the ...11 hours ago
- Another assassination attempt, baseless claims about pets, and Taylor Swift: the US election is wild...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney It has not yet been a week since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – in which the Democrat was widely held to have bested the Republican – and ...11 hours ago
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By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent, and Lydia Lewis RNZ Pacific journalist Papua New Guinea is today celebrating almost half a century of independence from Australia. The journey has not been easy, and the path since 16 September 1975 has been filled with challenges and triumphs, Prime Minister James ...12 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohiuddin Ahmed, Senior Lecturer of Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University ParinPix/Shutterstock The federal government is stepping up its fight against scams, which last year cost Australians more than A$2.7 billion. On Friday, the federal treasury released a draft scam ...16 hours ago
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Labour leader Chris Hipkins has lost support in a new Taxpayers Union-Curia poll showing small gains for National and Labour, and mostly small losses for minor parties. ...16 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle Health at every size (or HAES) is a lifestyle counselling approach that promotes mindful eating and lifestyle behaviours to pursue health and wellness, without focusing on weight loss. Weight loss is ...16 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics / Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The destruction of nature is a global crisis. Establishing protected areas of forest is a common policy governments use to tackle the problem. Indeed most ...16 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvette Grant, PhD (Dance) Candidate and Dance History Tutor, The University of Melbourne Benjamin Garrett and Callum Linnane star in Wheeldon’s new ballet production. Christopher Rogers-Wilson Christopher Wheeldon and The Australian Ballet’s Oscar, which had its world premiere in Melbourne on September ...16 hours ago
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The National Papua New Guinea’s Police Commissioner David Manning has declared emergency orders to safeguard infrastructure and residents in Porgera due to escalating law and order issues brought about by illegal miners. Manning said police would be increasing the legitimate use of force to remove combatants in order ...16 hours ago
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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is speaking to reporters at Parliament after the weekly Cabinet meeting. ...17 hours ago- Up close and friendly with Vietnam’s war relic Củ Chi tunnels
COMMENTARY: By David Robie Vietnam’s famous Củ Chi tunnel network was on our bucket list for years. For me, it was for more than half a century, ever since I had been editor of the Melbourne Sunday Observer, which campaigned against Australian (and New Zealand) involvement in the unjust Vietnam ...17 hours ago- Government at risk of not meeting two of its nine public service targets
The government has identified education and reducing violent crime as the biggest problem areas. ...17 hours ago- What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra Evan El-Amin/Shutterstock Donald Trump inherited a strong economy from President Obama and managed it poorly. Real GDP grew more slowly under Trump than it had under any ...18 hours ago- Government extends alternative to tough literacy and numeracy tests
Students will have until the end of 2027 to get literacy and numeracy standards by internal assessment, rather than tests - two years later than planned. ...18 hours ago- Experts oppose speed limits increase
A coalition of leading academics, health professionals and road safety experts have issued an open letter, urging the government to reconsider plans to increase speed limits. ...18 hours ago- All hail Christian Cullen, ‘mysterious smooth guy’ of Celebrity Treasure Island
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeanette King, Professor, Aotahi School of Māori and Indigenous Studies, University of Canterbury Getty Images Ko tēnei te Wiki o te Reo Māori – it’s Māori Language Week. It’s been 52 years since the landmark moment on September 14 1972, when ...19 hours ago- A new play brings Trent Dalton’s Love Stories to the stage in a joyful and exuberant celebration o...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlin West, PhD Candidate in Drama and Theatre Studies, The University of Queensland David Kelly/QPAC/Brisbane Festival Unapologetically sentimental, uncynically joyful, and brimming with wholeheartedness, Love Stories delivers exactly what its title promises. Adapted by Tim McGarry from Trent Dalton’s 2021 ...21 hours ago - Watch: Christopher Luxon holds post-Cabinet press conference
Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-09-16T21:34:18+00:00
The Left stand for healthy communities.
The Right step over homeless beggars.
pasupial,
If the greens get what they want, house values to drop by 15/20% you will have a new bred of homeless beggars, former house owners.
Let’s unpack that, shall we?
If the value of a home drops by 20%, why would a home-owner lose their home? They might go underwater for a while if there was a sudden drop and they were highly-mortgaged, but they would still have the same mortgage and the same income.
It is usually people losing their houses which causes the price to drop.
Home owners who brought high only have themselves to blame.
Anyhow you don’t lock in the price until you sell, housing prices after any downturn, will rebound. So the possibility that they sell during the downturn is once again their own.
Thirdly, as higher prices creep up who are the winners, well not those who sell and buy a similar property, they get hammered by a high cost to the real estate agent, less choice, and more fear over paying too much (and so sustain even high prices).
So simple put unless you are moving overseas, die, or otherwise have no need of the home, actually housing price is never a windfall.
Sure Greens are going to hurt those who have huge mortgages, but they also want high wages, and better redistribution. So the National party also want lower prices (its hurting the economy to put all that investment in non-productive homes), and have policies that are being rolled out to do just that, but without concerns about higher wages or redistribution of wealth back to the middle and lower classes.
Home owners who brought high only have themselves to blame.
No, not true. Not true at all.
Okay. People who buy homes who could not realistically pay them off brought us the collapse, and yes that was more down to the banks and neo-liberal governments deregulating the mortgage market. So yes, you are correct Home owners only have themselves too blame if they also voted for stupid right wing parties, or left wing ones with right wing financial policies.
The National House market has increased by 8.1% in the last year alone. A 20% decrease over say the next 10 to 15 years wont be too tough on people but it will direct investment cash to investments that produce real returns for new zealanders, a consequence of housing no longer being an attractive investment option.
The realty is that a successful housing affordability strategy requires a reduction in house prices, whether it is Labour or National. If house prices stay where they are then they are not affordable, strategy fail.
Rich the other, that would only be true over the long term, and that’s a good thing. Any sudden drop in prices will be due to a sudden increase in interest rates.
I think her framing could be improved, but I don’t think Turei should have lied. Let’s not hide behind wishy washy poli-speak. I know I want house prices to come down. How else does housing become more affordable? She should have mentioned that it is property speculators and rental- portfolio holders, rather than ordinary home owners that will be affected in most cases, and that as business operators they must accept that there is, and always was, risk. And the higher the potential returns, the greater that risk becomes.
As far as I understand it, all the avenues for solving the housing crisis including my own preference for a massive state-housing programme will result in lowering house prices and rents across the board. For most people that is a good thing.
“She should have mentioned that it is property speculators and rental- portfolio holders, rather than ordinary home owners that will be affected in most cases”
Out of interest how can only some property owners be affected by property prices coming down?
If you own a house to live in what’s the problem? If you have to move, other houses are cheaper too. Numbers on a page.
National: “I’d love to see wages come down” (and boy, haven’t they delivered on this).
vs the left – “we’d love to see house prices come down”.
Say it proud I reckon.
just saying,
Lets say,
I buy a house for 500k paying a 5% deposit = $25k, $475 mortgage.
Under a green govt , Houses drop by 20% making the value of my home $400K
My deposit of $25k is wiped out and am now paying a mortgage of $475k on a property worth $400k.
But wait there’s more , If I sell I will be HOMELESS as I all of my equity is gone and have NO deposit to purchase again.
Can you give me directions to the salvation army’s night shelter.
What planet are you on? You do realise that the fortnightly repayments on that mortgage would be roughly equivalent to as much as half the country would make in a fortnight?
But more to the point, even if they bought and immediately dropped 25% and had to sell again, they’d have to make the repayments on $75 debt ($200/fortnight), not $475k ($1274/fortnight). At that rate they could quickly save another $25k in about six months (or a year, assuming that they can’t pay for rent out of the ongoing house costs for their mansion, e.g. rates, maintenance, peasants, decorating, etc). Oh, and even if they don’t sell they’ll have their head above water in a year or two.
I mean, it sounds like a plausible problem, until one actually looks at the maths and realises that you’re just lamenting the poor little rich folk who max their credit to keep up with the Joneses. A lot of people in NZ have real problems, mate.
In the meantime, that’s what state houses are for.
mcflock.
People exit their homes and move on for many different reasons , sometimes it’s not a choice, eg divorce , etc.etc.
So for what ever reason they exit their home still owing $75k they will then have to save another deposit and purchase again at the 20% lower price eg $400k.
Save 5% deposit on $ 400k =$20k which means they borrow another $380k + they already owe $75k which means their latest home worth $400k has an actual debt of $455k
You seem to think saving $25k in 6 months will be easy which is around $2000 a fortnight , I hope they don’t expect to eat in that time.
All in all this seems a very dismal picture and people in this situation will become renters which will be a real boost for land lords.
Don’t ya just love green logic.
What a great plan, shall we do nothing about making housing more affordable because of the choices of a few who decide to get divorced…
I think that if they can service a $475k mortgage, then they can service a $75k mortgage AND save for a deposit on a replacement house. Although it might mean slumming it with the plebs for a year or so (the embarrassment!).
And at the end of it, they’ll still have a lower mortgage for an equivalent, or even the same house as before!
Look at your rather tortured scenario: A couple are mortgaged for $475k. They sell for $400k (for whatever reason), then save up the remainder of what they’d previously been paying in mortgage and rates and so on, while renting (although they pay back none of the $75k remainder, just the interest). A year or so later they buy almost the same house at its new $400k value, and are mortgaged at $455k. Plus the $20k deposit they saved up, that’s $475k. Far from being “homeless”, they are in exactly the same position that they were before the value dipped.
mcflock,
Romney I presume, plenty of wool around the eyes.
No bank will lend $455k on a property valued at $400k , in other words they are unable to borrow to buy and will become renters.
Once they start paying rent they are stuffed and it will take years to save a deposit.
GREEN LOGIC , don’t ya just love it.
Lol
Oh noes, worst-case scenario if they are forced to sell: they’ll have to RENT!
Better than being homeless, which is what you were calling them before.
So, them that overextends themselves without leaving a buffer for market contingencies might have to retrench and save up for a while in order to buy their dream mcmansion.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands will never be able to afford to buy their own home, over-extended or otherwise.
Tory problems: who really gives a shit?
Rich the other, why don’t you right wingers ever try doing things by your own philosophy… if what you say is the case and those new renters want to buy then the amazing free market will see that gap and fill it, supplying homes to those renters..
Just like the free market does now for all those people who want to buy but can’t.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, god knows why you lot put such faith in the free market. Idiots.
RIGHT WING LOGIC, gotta love it
Try this, the shortage is a political fairy tale.
Waikato,3227
Auckland ,1186
Northland, 1871
Wellington, 1151
Manawatu ,2227
These houses are listed on trade me , $400000 or less.
These don’t include listings with real estate agents.
The other point is why should we be worried about Auckland housing , as you can see there are plenty of choices around the country.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to start pushing the govt to invest in more regional development, shift the jobs, it’s that easy.
I think pushing regional development is also favoured by the Greens and Robertson and Cunliffe. But that is not enough on its own.
Rich the other – all those homes you list as being advertised for less than 400 k, where exactly are they located, and are they close to the areas where there are real jobs, enabling home buyers to earn a living AND pay off any loans and mortages?
At least you give a figure for the whole of Auckland, that seems to be close to the ones under 500 k, as John Campbell said on Campbell Live on Thursday evening. We had Lotu Iiga from the Nats on the Vote claiming there were 1,100 homes under 500 k on the market in his electorate alone, which was proved to be total BS. Campbell or his staff only found about 200 falling into that category.
As for Northland, Waikato and so forth, you will not find many jobs there, and I dread to see the quality of some of those homes.
Yes, regional development is needed, but it will take time, while the housing pressures in Auckland, Christchurch and a few other places are real and pressing right now.
Those valuations are illusory. Price mean reversion is inevitable.
Might as well do it in an orderly, planned fashion.
You’re paying twice the value of the house to the bank anyway even though they didn’t have the money in the first place and created the money you ‘borrowed’ out of thin air. That’s what you should be up in arms about.
If you buy a house to live in, then house prices going up or down doesn’t really affect you that much as you’ve still got to pay the agreement you signed up to. If you’re buying to flick on at a profit then tough shit, you should have invested in the productive economy. Many people and the number is growing, will never be able to own their own home. That is disgusting in supposedly one of the richest countries in the world.
That’s one angle I think would be good to see politicians using: “Most people who buy a house are buying a home, a place to live for their family. They don’t need to worry about a short-term dip in the market, because they’re not in it for a quick buck.”
just saying
She did mention all that, but the TV3s news edit-with-a hatchet job made it seem like Turei wanted every one of NZ million home-owner’s destitute. If you watch the online video of “The Vote” (which I don’t advise if you value your sanity), Peters had a good line about how house-prices going to fall anyway when the property bubble bursts, so why not have a controlled and targeted reduction now (paraphrased from memory – I can’t be bothered going back and transcribing the exact words).
Thanks for the extra info. I didn’t see the programme.
Great line from Winston.
Thanks, Pasupial. More damning info about 3 News.
It also means the left or left parties need a consistent one liner, that encapsulates their broader narrative, to keep repeating in TV appearances.
“I know I want house prices to come down. How else does housing become more affordable?”
By the price of houses staying the same and incomes rising.
By the price of houses staying the same and incomes rising.
But doesn’t that mean house prices coming down in real terms?
Eco-social democracy
From wikipedia
Here lies your problem.
BM. New task for you. Check the difference between eco social democracy and eco-socialism.
Is there a difference.?
BM
“The concept of an Eco-social market economy aims at balancing free market economics, the strive for social fairness and the sustainable use and protection of the natural resources.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eco-social_market_economy
Just add environmental considerations to the differences between
Explained on Wikipedia:
Our left political parties these days tend to go with the 2nd (revisionist?) definition.
Wikipedia on Socialism:
Personally, I thought Metiria was spot on.
Have seen a few property cycles now. Leveraged myself into my first “home and income” in Wellington in 1978 after the housing market dropped around 1976 and lower prices enabled me to get a foot in the door even with multiple mortgages. Interestingly, prices recovered in subsequent years and five years on I was offered (but declined) a price about one-third higher than I paid. If you can wait out a slump and don’t have to shift the cycles tend to even out. A property is only “under water” if you have negative equity and cannot service a loan.
The real and horribly pressing issue is what happens to all those over-leveraged people who are already facing difficulties servicing mortgages when the RB ramps up interest rates in 2016 according to reports of Wheeler’s comments.
“The real and horribly pressing issue is what happens to all those over-leveraged people who are already facing difficulties servicing mortgages when the RB ramps up interest rates in 2016 according to reports of Wheeler’s comments.”
plus the downstream consequence of increased exchange rates driving our export businesses to the wall.
How about making investment housing less attractive so that investors sell their homes to increase supply, eliminating the need to increase interest rates. The only loser are house investors, the winners are first home buyers and renters.
i think Wheeler said April next year was when He would be most likely to start the pain for the highly leveraged…
Describing the present situation as a property cycle is not accurate, Fran.
Well, yeah, a fall in house values would be really bad for:
1. Property investors.
2. People who feel that tax-free capital gain from their house is a human right.
3. Idiots, aka people with mortgages almost as high as the value of their house.
Those three groups may be large, but they’re not ones I feel a great deal of sympathy for and aren’t exactly core Greens’ constituency either. Turei should have stuck to her guns and told ’em fuck.
OK, on house prices dropping in the Auckland market because of either Kiwibuild or the Greens ‘rent to own’ policies, everybody is barking up the wrong tree,
PRICES WILL NOT DROP, there can be no overt sudden drop of house prices in the Auckland market simply because the proposals from both Labour and the Greens mean that the Houses they cause to be built WILL NOT BE SOLD IN THE MARKET,
As these homes are going to be targeted at first home buyers there will still be a large upwardly mobile demographic in the Auckland housing market seeking better/bigger/flasher homes so WHY would house prices suddenly fall, it’s actually an economic nonsense to suggest or believe such,
If the left are going to buy into whatever lie Duncan Garner can think up on any given day then election 2014 is going to be a lot harder work than it should be…
There is absolutely no doubt that lower house prices is good for everybody and it should be aimed for.
High values benefit only the banks – nobody else,
The local bodies seem to do pretty well out of them too…
So what are the policies, and how can they be explained clearly to the electorate in the face of everything the right will throw at them over the next year?
Realistically, anything that a left government can do will take a long time to have an effect on any metric. This is a good thing because Greens/Labour can highlight that they are taking a long term perspective, doing ‘the right thing’. This is in stark contrast to National’s hands-off, ‘let’s let the market fix this’ (even though it was a hands off approach that caused this problem in the first place).
In terms of selling policy, I think Gordon Campbell’s recent advice is really sound, tone back the personal attacks on Key and talk past him, because he is an irrelevancy that has ignored this, (and many other) problems.
http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2013/09/12/gordon-campbell-on-dialling-back-the-anti-key-rhetoric-and-the-putin-plan-for-syria/
If I ruled New Zealand I would create 100 public development companies under the Housing Corporation, and use the Public Works Act to take out huge swathes of land and houses both inside and on the periphery of NZ cities, and rebuild whole suburbs at a time.
And invite the private sector developers to take large minority interests.
Then put the designs and pricing and quantity surveying out to competitive tender.
Iwi companies could join in if they wanted.
10 Hobsonvilles
10 Massey North’s
10 Tamaki Transformation projects
10 New Lynns
All of the public profits would have to get recycled.
Given the housing demand I would be able to sell them all off the plans, to new couples who have to live in them not rent them out.
Once I had started making serious money I would then use some of the profits to buy up and start demolishing the worst of Flaxmere, Kawerau, Murapara, Kaikohe, and other dying towns full of poverty and crime. Depending on how patrician I was feeling at the time.
So you are happy for those who purchase raw land and spend massive resources and time to be by passed by the govt, yet earth works , civil works, aggregate suppliers, concrete manufactures , building products manufacturers etc to continue to make their margins? In other words paint the land developers in a bad way yet allow companies mentioned above (read fletched to continue to make their profit margins).
Ad everyone appears to be an expert in land developer and the property market, pity many have little to no understanding of the industry or how the market really functions.
But at least you are being constructive with ideas, keep going
Raw land developers are welcome to the risks they take. I just think it’s time they got the chance to share their risks with the public sector – who so clearly have public policy goals to achieve.
Everyone should get their margins – that’s the point of business.
Yet from my reading of your comment and labours Kiwibuild all attention has been centred on the land developer yet build materials manufacturers, earth movers, civil workers, trades and councils appear to be able to able to trade as normal. Or with both Nats 39k dwellings over 3 years or Kiwibuild no consideration has been made for prices to rise as those sectors within the industry are pushed beyond their capacity = result increased prices. Such increases are occurring already and there is little increase in land and building consenting level, especially compared to the levels of 2003-4.
As many have commented, if $400k affordable housing is the solution ( i.r.t Auckland ) then who can benefit ? Not those in need that is for sure.
Far better for govt resources IMO to be directed to state housing than performing the function of developing for the private market.
You make some good points and they should be considered and incorporated into the final plan.
I think you underestimate the power of the market to regulate its own labour, land price and materials supply and prices. Everyone can see the bubble, especially in Auckland. The only question now is how quickly it deflates and how bad the damage.
The housing market as a whole is however too big to control. It can now only be blunted. That is done partly by choking eg the Reserve Bank risky lender controls, partly through land supply eg Housing Accord, partly through monopsonising the market ie SKIRT and the Chch rebuild, but most importantly by incentivising the private developers to work with the state and form common companies with common interest.
I’d love it if we could go back to the patrician days of the state command-controlling everything. Those days are dead.
i don’t disagree with you on the State House build, state houses as an economic function do not ‘just’ house the poor,
When there was an adequate supply of State Houses in the city of Auckland there was not a problem of affordability for those wishing to buy their own home,
State houses as an economic function takes away the one thing those who see housing as an investment need to make that investment succeed, Tenants,
Without tenants, those in the middle class who have a love affair with rental property, a large number of them as 100,000 homes have in the past 20 years become rental properties, would not be so keen on putting their monies into rental investments which would mean that there is less demand in the housing market…
Politicians just need to sell the fact that lower house prices are a good thing for most people. For anyone who doesn’t own a house, lower prices are good. For everyone who owns only one house lower house prices are largely neutral to their direct circumstances, but good via the benefits to the wider economy.
There seems to be a meme that goes: if you own a house, lower house prices are obviously bad. This is pretty much nonsense for most people.
Best of luck with that.
75% of our debt is private and it’s real estate.
Every % increase in capital value is either leverage up the great real estate rat cycle of happiness, or a year closer to selling up and out to an earlier retirement.
Superannuation used to be the political third rail. Home ownership is the new their rail in politics. And it requires perpetual price increases.
i still fail to see how the Government building any amount of houses will lower the price of existing houses,
None of the houses proposed to be built will be initially sold into the market so these houses will simply serve to take away part of the demand particularly in the Auckland housing market,
There will still be sufficient demand from those who are upwardly mobile and those buying rental investments and removing from the equation first home buyers at the most is only likely to slow down the time it takes to sell a property…
bad12,
“i still fail to see how the Government building any amount of houses will lower the price of existing houses”
“these houses will simply serve to take away part of the demand particularly in the Auckland housing market,”
You have answered your own question. And if you make an impact in one segment of the market, you will indirectly affect the whole market through substituability. Aaron Schiff expains that concept very elegantly here:
http://aaronschiff.net/2013/08/something-that-cannot-carry-on-must-eventually-stop/
Are you suggesting that current home owners who have gathered over a period of years a substantial amount of equity in their current property are not going to keep ‘climbing the property ladder’, leveraging themselves into what they see as bigger, better, flasher home in a ‘better’ suburb,
You will also have to be suggesting that the middle class love affair for the second and third property as a rental investment is suddenly going to come to a halt,
None of the above is anywhere near the reality and as the proposal is that the Government who build the affordable housing will be selling these homes directly to the new owners presumably by way of ballot such housing will not in the first instance not be any indicator to the market on pricing of existing stock,
Why exactly then would the price of a recently built 200m Whenuapai dwelling suddenly fall when everything the Party’s proposing building the affordable homes has said would indicate that the ‘plan’ is to build 100m dwellings which if they are smart they will sell on condition of the Government having a buy back option based upon sold price + equity,
The effect on the Auckland market of such a Government build i would suggest is that property will become a little slower to sell, and the odd ‘bargain’ will pop up in the market caused by sellers for whatever reason ‘having’ to sell…
Ad
“Every % increase in capital value is either leverage up the great real estate rat cycle of happiness,”
But that’s the thing. Rising house prices work directly against people trying to upsize. If you have a 400k house and you want a 700k house, you need 300k extra debt. If prices go up 10%, you suddenly have a 440k house, but the house you want is 770k, so you need an extra 30k. You are worse off.
“or a year closer to selling up and out to an earlier retirement.”
You are right about those downsizing, but I think this is often overstated. Someone downsizing has to basically move out of town to somewhere cheaper – either that or move to a cheaper suburb or into a very small unit. Basically you need to make a very significant jump downwards for it to be worth it (once you account for the costs of selling, moving etc). People often dont want to do that when they retire, so they dont get any benefit.
You may correctly see the step up the property ladder as debt but the great swathe of the middle class currently playing this game of monopoly do not really consider this,
i know someone with a 500 grand home and 2 rental apartments in the city, last time i talked with Him his ‘debt’ was close to being a million bucks,
He tho doesn’t consider the debt at all, in His mind He is sitting on a million dollars of assets…
This talk about the great danger of a house price collapse and equity wipe-out is vastly exaggerated. Tolerable adjustments have happened in a moderate way in the years following the tail end of the 2007/2008 boom of the real estate market already. Indeed the ones that would likely suffer most would be the very “investors” and “speculators”, as most NZers will continue to do all to just buy and pay off their own homes to live in.
If some people over-leverage with too much debt on overpriced homes, of course some will be forced to sell and lose, but they would face lower other homes they can then buy, as the reduction in prices will likely go across the whole price range of homes. There is already a kind of bubble developing, and any economic slow down can already upset the market and lead to a downturn and price reductions.
I would not feel too much pity for the investors who already have portfolios and enough cash and credit to expand these. Them going bust or losing out a bit will hurt themselves and their banks more than the average home buyer.
As we saw overseas, the government could step in with some measures and bail out banks, but as the Australian owned banks here are much healthier than many overseas ones, few will face serious dangers.
In any case, as long as migration and overseas buying continues, there will be continued demand, and existing house building is years behind meeting demand. To actually have a collapse of the whole market seems unlikely at present, and for the near future. The Reserve Bank has already announced higher interest rates to “cool” the markets, so there is already intention to slow price growth.
This is all just more of the panic creation by the government and stakeholders involved, who rather want things to carry on as it is, and have their pockets filled with endless book value money, which can though be wiped out by many other “crisis” any time.
The home building plans by Labour and Greens and Mana are targeting first home buyers, and will only catch up with demand that is pressing. There is also need for low end social housing, of better quality than what exists. The higher end market will be little affected, that is the 3 to 4 brm “plus” large homes, that presently are preferred by NZers returning from OEs, by some well cashed migrants and overseas investors.
Do not fall for all this panic, same as was tried with the policy release of the one state agency electricity buyer, to supply various retailers.
Sadly Metiria is not an economic whizkid. If Russell Norman had been there on The Vote, he would have handled it very differently.
Agreed.
The thing about economics is that although the ideal is that any change does not worsen the outcome for any actor (e.g. in the market both buyer and seller “win” from the transaction. Theoretically. I know, I know…), in practise there is a conceivable “loser” for almost any policy change described. So the standard tory playbook when responding to left policy is to wank on about a theoretical loser and ignore the far greater number of peope who are helped by that policy.
Funnily enough, they do the same thing for their own policies – wank on about the few people who might be helped, and ignore the far greater number of people they’re kicking in the nuts.
“So the standard tory playbook when responding to left policy is to wank on about a theoretical loser and ignore the far greater number of peope who are helped by that policy.”
I dont think that playbook is restricted to the “tories”. The left seems to go on about losers from welfare enhancing policy all the time. (eg free trade, less prohibition of land development, eradicating price floors in the labour market etc.)
Not sure why we are talking about UK politics though…
same hat, different country.
The difference is that there are almost always more poor people than rich people. So the left is almost always pointing out the effects for the majority of people (be they winners or losers), not just being obsessed with the welfare of 0.5% of them.
What makes me damned furious are those landlords, who may owe little or perhaps a fair bit on mortgages, for the homes they rent out in Auckland and Christchurch. They are “creaming” it at present, as interest rates are comparatively low for NZ conditions, so they have less to pay off, but can charge as much rent as the market can demand.
That gives them a very easy way to pay off debt rather quickly, and at the same time have their property values increase substantially.
Auckland and parts of Christchurch have largely become a landlord’s and speculators paradise. These are the ones very happy with values going up and up, and having heard Metiria Turei make an “apology” to basically “calm” such person’s nerves, that really shocked me.
Metiria get some extra lessons in macroeconomics perhaps, as it is all more complex and less straight forward as many think. Booms are followed by busts, and any larger home building policy will at least slow price growth, if not lead to some moderate decrease in prices in at least the lower end of the market.
This is exactly right. It is only multiple house owners that benefit from rising house prices.
My general struggle with both the Green and Labour policies is that they look at simply building places for families.
I think we need to rebuild our cities and towns. To me that means integrating great design, energy efficiency, public transport, integrating schools and police and water and health and fitness. All stuff that makes for a good life. A civic life.
Labour used to presume that it could plan whole towns. Some elements of masterplanning with the full integration of local and central public services and amenities still remain, but very few.
It’s a task worth doing, and we need the commercial, governance, and Public Works Act instruments to do that.
Did anyone else hear Garner say on 3rd Degree that only 1% of land was occupied in NZ?
If so
Why is the cost of a section in Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington so much?
That’s the 1%. Not many people want to live in Dannevirke or Winton you see.
Because there is no work and it is too expensive to purchase and run a car when a client of Work and Income.
Did you see earlier in the week that in Richmond parking was free and in Nelson it is $1 an hour and some people shop in Richmond 10 minutes away when in Nelson because of no parking fee?
The usual wisdom is that it costs to go some kms to escape parking fees, so a case could be made that it’s futile. But then there are outlets offering cheaper cuts of meat and vegs on the way, and because parking is free in Richmond then there are no nasty surprises of $40 over-parking tickets. Which spoil your day, when you have lost track of time and find one on the window. Bus to Richmond is over $2.50 from Nelson, not sure how much – so return would be at least $5 a day if you had to go there to look for or get work.
Because the wealthiest 1% have monpolised ownership of it. A strange form of yin yan.
I have been trying to feng shui my home lately. Yin is stagnant energy, Yang is flowing energy. So 99% are languishing out there when it comes to affording to purchase a section in the three mentioned cities.
A slave owner I once slaved for bought a block of farm land for a solid price, waited a few years, developed that said land in subdivision, landscaped, roads etc by another of his setup companies and then flogged off 400 sections over the space of ten years at $90k to $250 k a section. In the process inflated the land and section price by both controlling demand and supply by mimicking same pattern as California in the 60’s. point is simple labour uncoordinated and divided by the rise of consumerism and individualism will always be weak and poor.
The value of NZ homes is actually quite high when compared to many other countries so an adjustment in values should not really make as much of an impact as people might think. I think house values should hold up quite well even if Labour’s housing vision is implemented.
It should also see more money injected into the economy as people feel more confident about spending with house prices becoming more reasonable. It may even lead to upward mobility which could boost house prices over the longer term too. Especially properties where people have added value.
People who have owned their homes for at least 10 years have experienced massive growth in their home values, growth well beyond the long term trend, and it is time for them to give a small amount of those gains back.
The problem will be people who bought much more recently, say in the last 3-4 years. They could easily end up underwater from where they are at now.
However I think this situation which will be manageable, and doesn’t preclude making homes more affordable for all.