How Hipkins Can Still Win

28 comments on “How Hipkins Can Still Win ”

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1. bwaghorn 1

   13 July 2023 at 8:54 am

   Na couldn't give a rats about his interests, I want to know my kid will have a chance at owning a home in an undivided country that'll survive climate change.

   Make me believe you ain't in this just to tick it off the list, get what you say your going todo done,
2. Sanctuary 2

   13 July 2023 at 9:11 am

   Hipkins big problem is he is a small "c" conservative centrist. This is a political project that seeks to resolve policy disputes in an entirely negative way; that is to say that within the prevailing orthodoxy it tries to identify extremes points of view adjudged incompatible to the liberal ruling classes and rule them out. Whatever is left becomes the basis for policy. This approach more or less works as long as the system remains in equilibrium. But it has no answer for crisis except in further negative propositions – Labour is just about holding up in the polls because National and ACT are adjudged as too extreme for the tastes of a bare majority of the ruling elites, rather than Labour offering any real alternative vision for government.

   Effectively, Hipkin's Labour has cast itself as the dam against right wing polarisation, but in doing it has to be careful it is not creating the conditions for it's own demise. The public will only vote for you to keep the other lot out for so long. Once the dam bursts, labour could swept away in the flood just as the other centrist/establishment social democratic parties in PR electoral systems in Europe have been – either complete oblivion or relegation to feeble minor party status.

   I still think Labour will scrape home this election, but labour is going to have to start articulating a message beyond continuity and negatively defined policy goals to hold back the global right wing tide.
3. Mike the Lefty 3

   13 July 2023 at 9:29 am

   If personalities are the deciding factor, Hipkins has a slight advantage over Luxon.

   But I don't think personalities will be the deciding factor this time. Last time Labour had Jacinda Adern who was an engaging personality and smart, in direct contrast to National's Judith Collins who was a turn off to all but the bluest voter.

   There is actually less difference between Hipkins and Luxon, each are moderately engaging, less combative than previous opponents and are nice enough as human beings.

   I think this time it will come down to policies, or lack of them. It gives me mixed feelings to say this because I have consistently derided the New Zealand media over many years for being too personality focussed at the expense of policy, but now we might get to see what happens when it goes the other way and we might not like what we find.

   My nutshell analysis of the four main parties is as follows:

   Labour will muddle through with little alteration – a bit of change here and there with nothing that will scare anyone off, good intentions abounding but nothing much happening.

   National will promise anything to any group who looks like a captured vote. Their policies will be deliberately ambiguous to capture the non-thinking voter. They will worry about how to actually fulfil their promises later (if they win).

   ACT will promise to take us back to the good old days of Victorian England when taxes were a dirty word and the rich prospered on the backs of the poor but will come off as disciplined and focussed in contrast to the two main parties and gather votes as a consequence.

   The Greens will offer the promise of a reformed carbon zero economy, knowing that it will be impossible to deliver but will at least maintain their core support.

   Other than Te Pati Maori, I don't see any of the other parties getting into parliament therefore their policies are probably irrelevant.

   I think the campaign will be predictable and boring with people wishing it was quickly all over.

   But with three months still to go a lot can happen in a short time, of course.
4. newsense 4

   13 July 2023 at 9:36 am

   Two roads diverged…

   I mean surely they’ve all polled the crap out of a wealth tax? Or is that just like climate change mitigation?

   And explain- so much wealth was given by the housing market and Covid. It’s not been earned by hard work…
5. UncookedSelachimorpha 5

   13 July 2023 at 11:15 am

   Winning!

   If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

   Dwight D. Eisenhower
   • Bearded Git 5.1

     13 July 2023 at 11:24 am

     Yeah but then take a look at the Democrats and Republicans and see if they are taking Dwight's advice.

     I don't rhink so.
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 5.1.1

       13 July 2023 at 11:52 am

       Obviously neither are taking this advice!

       But unfortunately applies to both our main parties also, I think.
6. Corey 6

   13 July 2023 at 12:08 pm

   I agree with the comments on Ardern, and while it'll be good to make him look more normal…

   A lot of that is cringe 90s/2000s style stuff that may appeal to boomers and gen x but it doesn't appeal to gen y or gen z.

   If labour is to win, it needs a huge turn out of gen z and gen x, the new largest voting blocks, and unlike previous generations, who seem content with statements of intent and women's day covers, policy actually matter ALOT to us.

   Without us there is no left.

   Who are gen z and gen y? We are educated, we see through bullshit and gloss because we were raised on the internet unlike our parents and grandparents who fall for every scam and conspiracy online and are easily led by gloss and PR.

   We are tired, cynical, we work damn hard and damn good jobs but are going to be life long renters, we will mostly never have kids because we can't afford it, after rent, power, food, transport and student loans we have fuck all left over.

   We are terrified of the future, we all think we're a few months from being homeless, we want tax reform, we want a cgt, we want to go hard on taxing the rich, we want more rights for tenants, housing to be seen as housing not investments, we want drug reform, student loan forgiveness, and we want real, serious action on climate change.

   We're not lazy or disinterested we just see through the bullshit and won't waste our time if politicians aren't offering us what we want.

   We propelled Ardern to two victories because despite the hype and PR cringe, she was running on policies, we actually believed in, and she was hopeful, optimistic and in 2017 atleast, was always saying she was "open" to things from drug reform to tax reform, then she got elected and said no to everything.

   Hipkins has already screwed himself with my generation, he's ruled out doing anything we want, he can do all the women's day articles he wants, he's ruled out tax and housing reforms and comes off as a weasel.

   Doesn't matter how much you say "but national and act will do xyz" we don't believe national and act will do anything they promise either, and they mostly won't.

   But if labour are ruling out doing anything the largest voting blocks wants, and are ruling out the policies from the minor parties offering what we want, in favor of a few boomers and farmers who won't vote labour anyway… Well "fuck labour"

   Chris Hipkins is trying to appeal to some 90s mythological idea of middle NZ, and he's failing badly, he should try maybe appeal to people who exist and may actually vote labour. He's fucked it now though.

   That budget he canned, would have saved labour.
   • SPC 6.1

     13 July 2023 at 12:21 pm

     It could have been like 2005, when Clark and Cullen ended student loan interest and provided the WFF tax credits – they got a boost from those with student debt, but as important was when the south Auckland vote came.

     He may regret not going with GR's approach – that there was something to talk about with the Greens and TPM.

     Hipkins has instead gone with Labour, National lite, and the other guys National full on ACT shit fuckery (too use the Juice Media language) .
   • Belladonna 6.2

     13 July 2023 at 1:16 pm

     We are terrified of the future, we all think we're a few months from being homeless, we want tax reform, we want a cgt, we want to go hard on taxing the rich, we want more rights for tenants, housing to be seen as housing not investments, we want drug reform, student loan forgiveness, and we want real, serious action on climate change.

     Caught up with a younger group of my family a couple of weekends ago (large family gatherings, getting the whole clan together).

     The trends coming from the younger group of adults (say 20-early 30s) were:

     • Cost of living (daily bills for everything from food to fuel going up, and up).
     • Cost of housing (they have good solid jobs – mostly trades – and would like to own rather than rent). Rents going up are a bit of a worry (but they see this as just another cost-of-living). It's more that they want to own – and want house prices to come down. [Interestingly, so do their parents]
     • Not worried about student loans: They've either never had one, and don't propose to get one (tradies); or they've factored that into a high-paying career (e.g. law, engineering)
     • Crime rates. The tradies are particularly angry about this. It's their tools getting ripped off, their building sites getting trashed, etc.
     • Not significantly interested in drug reform. Those who smoke a bit of weed – are happy to go on doing so under the radar.
     • Climate change – more along the weather side of discussion (floods, etc.) – looking for practical, engineering solutions – rather than AT talkfests of 'consultation'.
     • Fairly strong anti co-governance (though, probably their understanding of what co-governance is, isn't that clear).
     • Really over endless consultation, and no action from government (both central and local). The only people benefiting are the consultants.
     • Not too fussed on taxing the rich. They've seen that tax doesn't tend to trickle down to them.
     • Pretty optimistic about the future. Looking at houses. Starting families. Starting businesses. Growing careers. OE (younger ones in this group). [Obviously, not all at the same time for the same people!]

     Overall not a political group (fairly typical of early adult age groups historically – more interested in living their lives, than getting activist). No strong support for any political party's agenda.

     Will they vote? Probably not. Will that be different from any election in the recent past? Not much.
     • Shanreagh 6.2.1

       13 July 2023 at 3:28 pm

       Those are really interesting BD.

       More and more I'm getting the feeling that cost of living and ways to control it/mitgate it are getting higher and higher up the list of must haves in any election policies. People may not be looking for one shot wonders but enduring ideas so that when inflation occurs we don't have to scratch around for ideas to control it. .

       Ability to eventually buy a house and house prices

       Not too fussed on taxing the rich. They've seen that tax doesn't tend to trickle down to them.

       Perhaps we could hear more from BD's whole clan gatherings!
7. That_guy 7

   13 July 2023 at 1:39 pm

   “Texture?” Who gives a shit?

   Just want a left wing party with left wing tax policy.
8. That_guy 8

   13 July 2023 at 1:54 pm

   I feel like rubbish saying this, but as things currently stand I hope that Labour gets walloped to the benefit of the Greens (so that it’s clear why the walloping took place).

   You can practically feel the privilege dripping from my voice when I say this, but… the nation can survive three years of bad policy from NACT. What we cannot tolerate any longer is the main left-wing party not believing in left-wing policies.
   • Hunter Thompson II 8.1

     13 July 2023 at 3:32 pm

     Seems to me Labour is now paying the price for not being honest with the electorate. Chris HIpkins will carry the can for that.

     It had its official policies, but then there were the real policies which were carefully kept out of sight. In short, Labour has been implementing changes it never campaigned on, so people don't trust them.

     On top of that we have several areas such as health that are now struggling. The current state of Southland Hospital doesn't inspire confidence (some cancer patients have been told of a 12 week wait for treatment).
     • Dennis Frank 8.1.1

       13 July 2023 at 3:42 pm

       Labour is now paying the price for not being honest with the electorate

       Arguable. They campaigned on the slogan `Let's do this'. I wondered at the time what this was, but onsite here everyone seemed to feel it was fab – nobody complained about it. Now the PM can proudly repeat during his campaigning: "We said we'd do this, and we did it!"
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 8.1.2

       16 July 2023 at 11:50 pm

       I sort of thought Labour clearly telegraphed they did not want to do anything significant about inequality, poverty or services – and delivered exactly what they promised. (note "anything significant", I don't mean "anything at all"). I was dismayed at various young people I knew going to ‘vote for Jacinda’ thinking it would improve things for them, when Labour’s stated policies clearly would not – but Green policies would.

       My view is based on the idea that you can't fix poverty, services without doing something about inequality – and inequality is something Labour is utterly determined not to challenge.
   • Roy Cartland 8.2

     14 July 2023 at 9:23 am

     I gotta admit I feel a bit like that too. What's the point of them any more, are they just a bulwark against the nats and that's it?
   • Anker 8.3

     15 July 2023 at 1:14 pm

     I will be happy to have a new medical school built, OT reformed and a solid truency policy. Hopefully they will do these things
9. ianmac 9

   13 July 2023 at 3:40 pm

   When I see the lists of this Governments achievements I wonder why don't the general population know? Bloody hell! The list is long and serious but the Media and Opposition rhetoric is that this government is a "do nothing" monster.

   Shout it from the rooftops. Make graphs and posters. Tell 'em all!
   • Patricia Bremner 9.1

     13 July 2023 at 4:50 pm

     A big problem for putting progress in front of the electorate has been white anting and poor reporting ianmac.

     Plus "Rinse and Repeat Politics". imo

     All progress is presented as "too late" "too little" "under planned" or "over managed" or even "2nd string" to some utterance by Luxon or Seymore or one of their rich buddies "writing a letter".

     One Nat "dirt digging" for "gotchas" to disrupt the Labour Team by showing up inadequacies, while holding and hiding information on their own members doings.

     The re-naming of policies in derogatory terms to "diss" them.

     Water reforms become Co-governance. (The Marries want it all)sarc

     Tax reforms becomes Envy tax. ( We pay most of the tax say the rich) sarc yeah 9%!!

     Rental reform becomes Landlord bashing…especially "mum and dad landlords" sarc.

     Health reforms become Health delays and failures/or wasted ill directed money according to " Dr. Reti" and co.

     Ram Raids become “Law and Order.”

     Recovery from covid becomes "Cost of living crisis"

     Jacinda Ardern becomes The Strawman for the catastrophic events.

     Followed by The pie eating Boy from the Hutt, being presented as boy wonder. (ego joke?)

     Click bait /Algorithm/ 7 second attention span/ debt ridden generations/ looking for the next group/person to blame.

     They will probably vote Luxon, and by default Seymore in for a dose of "Austerity Sauce to complete the Political Meal."

     Those who do the same thing and expect a different result are bound to fail. Sadly.

     We know what the problems are, but we are not brave in the Ballot Box so…. wealth wins.
     • Patricia Bremner 9.1.1

       13 July 2023 at 5:16 pm

       A further aspect Ianmac, has been Climate change impacts and reforms. These have been painted as "harming our food production and farmers" while the impacts of flooding on our volcanic soils has turned them to porridge, and caused endless erosion/slips and pushed food prices to scary highs. I am Labour, but will vote Green in my last? election. I hope others are brave.
     • Kat 9.1.2

       13 July 2023 at 8:45 pm

       Some would say that ignorance is bliss and that a little bit of knowledge is dangerous…..so there you have it…..elections are often a measure of the awareness of the electorate.
     • ianmac 9.1.3

       14 July 2023 at 8:24 am

       Well said Patricia.Totally agree. What can Labour do about it?
       • Patricia Bremner 9.1.3.1

         14 July 2023 at 12:05 pm

         Respond by pulling left, leaving Labour to attract the centrist vote who don't want a Nact government. Here is hoping. We donate and support and send strong messages to the Party.(s) On the left.
10. Thinker 10

    13 July 2023 at 9:43 pm

    What National seem to be doing is picking at Labour whatever they do.

    For example, if Labour oppose a wealth tax, it's because they are wimping out. If they did campaign on a wealth tax, it would be politics of envy. Seemingly can't do right for doing wrong.

    The only way to deal with that kind of politicking is to call it out for what it is. Respond by telling people what's going on and also pointing out that that's the sort of politicking that people/parties do when they have no substance of their own to offer.

    When Luxon picked on Hipkins for opposing a wealth tax, the quick response should have been to ask Luxon if he would introduce one. Luxon could have been found with something nastier than egg on his face, but it never happened.

    It's just my opinion from what I see on the tv, but I think the current line is to try to hold the moral high ground and avoid the mudslinging but thereby falling victim to the mudslingers.
    • Anne 10.1

      13 July 2023 at 10:03 pm

      … I think the current line is to try to hold the moral high ground and avoid the mudslinging but thereby falling victim to the mudslingers.

      Yes. That is part of Labour's problem. They think that "holding the moral high ground" will bring them votes. Theoretically it sounds good but when did theory work in practice? Not very often. Voters by and large don't care about the moral high ground. Many of them regard the mudslingers as clever dicks and end up voting for them.

      No-one is suggesting Labour get down and dirty like the NActs, but for heaven's sake call them out for what they are doing and – as you suggested Thinker – throw some of it back in their faces. Hipkins is definitely up to it so get stuck in Chippy!
      • ianmac 10.1.1

        14 July 2023 at 8:27 am

        Hard to respond to mud slinging if the response is with-held.
        • Anne 10.1.1.1

          14 July 2023 at 10:00 am

          It's easy to respond to public mud-slinging. The PM and his ministers have plenty of opportunities to rebut claims and, if necessary, throw it back in the perpetrators' faces. The general public like a bit of sparring. They see it as a strength. Refusing to respond should be confined to the profoundly dirty stuff which is usually personal in nature eg. Jacinda Ardern. Even then, there were times when I felt she – or someone on her behalf – should have responded.

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