How not to campaign in an MMP environment

Written By: - Date published: 8:34 am, October 13th, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, david cunliffe, election 2020, jacinda ardern, national - Tags: , , ,

The 2014 election campaign still burns in my memory.  The Labour Party was clearly divided, unity and discipline was lacking and the electorate could sense it.

Things were that bad we had Labour list MPs not campaigning for the party vote.  Clearly they thought that their own personal abilities and talents would mean that the electorate would refuse to go along with the tide of public opinion and buck the trend and re elect someone they had previously voted out.  Unfortunately for them they were wrong.

Cosgrove was the 6th ranked Labour MP at the time.

There were other examples.  Some MPs in safe seats were campaigning only for the electorate vote and the Party vote billboards did not see the light of day.

The result was almost inevitable.  Labour received 25% of the party vote although interestingly 35% of the electorate vote.

National ran the perfect MMP election campaign.  Every billboard had John Key on it.  Result wise they received 47% of the party vote and 47% of the electorate vote.  Their discipline was impressive.

It is no secret that after the election Labour was in a poor state.  Thanks to Andrew Little’s determined leadership discipline and unity improved markedly.  And thanks to Jacinda Ardern’s inspired leadership things have kicked on since then.

Fast forward to now and the boot is clearly on the other foot.

National’s advertising is fragmented and when you look at the efforts of National candidates in marginal seats you can see there is no coordination.  And they are focussing on their own electorate campaign and not on the party vote campaign.

Denise Lee’s advertisement above is an example.  This effort from Dan Bidois below also fails the two ticks test although it does at least mention National.

And this billboard is frankly bizarre.  For the MP of Pakuranga to double down and be seeking electorate votes is unbelievable.  Pakuranga in particular is the sort of seat where the only thing you do is harvest party votes.

To add to the sense of a complete lack of discipline Alfred Ngaro has been at it again.

I blogged earlier about his insane attacks on Phil Twyford alleging that Twyford wanted to legalise all drugs and allow full term abortions.

Ngaro’s Facebook post was deleted and Judith Collins made soothing noises.  But Ngaro has now doubled down on what he said.

From Steve Braunias in the Herald:

A seemingly chastened Ngaro deleted the post. It was a small, unsavoury episode, no big deal, and for Ngaro and National at least it had the virtue of passing quickly – except it hasn’t. I called Ngaro on Sunday and he doubled down. He said he only deleted the post because trolls had attacked his wife, and accused her of being behind it.

As for his accusations against Twyford, he said, “I stand by those comments. I do not resile from them … I’m not about to apologise for speaking up.”

I said, “But your comments about Phil Twyford would appear to be total lies.”

He said, “Phil Twyford might want to check the record.”

I said, “What are you talking about?”

He said, “Have a look at the Family First website.”

Anyone relying on Family First for information need to have a reality check.

Braunias also highlights Ngaro’s completely unchristian approach to the poor.  When asked about clothing allowances for residents in a retirement home clearly suffering from poverty he said this:

“We need to stop thinking about services and start thinking about outcomes,” he blathered. I got in his face afterwards and said, “They’re poor. They need clothes. What are you going to do about it?” He said, “It’s not about fixing the problem.”

I wish to go on record and declare this is the worst thing I have ever heard any politician say out loud.

If I was National’s campaign manager right now I would be throwing a huge tantrum and lecturing every sitting MP on the importance of the party vote.  Every ad should be aiming either exclusively for the party vote or in marginal seats for two ticks.  Candidate only ads are a waste of time and actually are harmful to the campaign.  Every time a candidate gets an electorate vote but loses a party vote the party goes backwards.  It is a sign that National’s central control is completely lacking that this sort of advertising is happening.

This is like 2014 but in reverse and far worse.  At least in 2014 there was no surge of leaks against the leader during the campaign.

However, this is MMP and anything is possible.  Make sure that you and your whanau and friends get out and vote for their favourite progressive party.  Otherwise on Sunday morning you may wake up to Judith Collins being your Prime Minister.

30 comments on “How not to campaign in an MMP environment ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Te Aro Resident 1
    13 October 2020 at 8:51 am

    Looks like Simeon is already preparing for the 2023 Election by featuring National's next leader on his billboard.

    • Wensleydale 1.1
      13 October 2020 at 1:19 pm

      I can't look at Simeon Brown without thinking, "Does his mother know where he is?"

      Also, Alfred Ngaro is a muppet. This is documented fact.

  2. Ovid 2
    13 October 2020 at 9:19 am

    If I was National’s campaign manager right now I would be throwing a huge tantrum

    We’ve already seen Gerry lose his temper at the media. He’s not handling this well.

    Is it bad that I’m taking such pleasure in seeing National self-destruct like this? I guess the unintended consequence is Act polling higher and I loathe them even more, but I can’t help myself.

    • Wensleydale 2.1
      13 October 2020 at 1:24 pm

      I'd like to see Gerry crash and burn, and have to resort to looking for jobs teaching woodwork, only for schools around the country to say, "Yeah… nah. We don't ordinarily accept dodgy conspiracy peddlers with anger management issues." We probably shouldn't take pleasure in the misfortunes or others (be kind, and all that), but if anyone has it coming, it's the National Party. I'll be honest. I want to see them implode on Saturday. If that makes me a terrible person, so be it.

      • Sacha 2.1.1
        13 October 2020 at 1:44 pm

        He will be gravy-training those company directorships from grateful party supporters to retirement.

      • NZJester 2.1.2
        14 October 2020 at 7:33 am

        If someone was stupid enough to put him in charge of a wood working class I would be amazed if 100% of the students made it to the end of the day with all their fingers still attached.

        But instead he is more likely to be given a job sitting behind a desk in a business bullying the hard working staff under him that do all the actual work and taking all the credit for said hard work while doing nothing but seat warming. (So no change from what he is doing at the moment).

  3. Ad 3
    13 October 2020 at 9:20 am

    This is exactly why 2020 is massaging away some of my 2014 scar tissue.

    Irrespective of the outcome, the campaign and the unity just feels godd.

  4. Chris 4
    13 October 2020 at 9:26 am

    Your advice to the nats is of course common sense, but I wouldn't give them an ounce of advice in the hope they're too stupid to cotton on to even the bleedin' obvious. Fuck 'em.

    • mickysavage 4.1
      13 October 2020 at 9:58 am

      There will no doubt be a post election analysis to work out if these were decisions made in panic or calculated.

  5. Uncle Scrim 5
    13 October 2020 at 10:05 am

    If I recall, in 2014 National won the party vote in every general electorate except four in west and south Auckland but Labour candidates won 27 electorates (21 general + 6 Maori), so only got 5 list MPs in. I don't expect Labour will achieve anything like that but that one poll in Northland showed it's likely Labour will win the party vote in many seats where Nat MPs are returned.

  6. Anne 6
    13 October 2020 at 10:07 am

    This is like 2014 but in reverse and far worse. At least in 2014 there was no surge of leaks against the leader during the campaign.

    And therein lies the key difference between left of centre politicians and and right of centre politicians. The left have principles of loyalty regardless of the circumstances while the right disregard such sentiments as being inconsequential.

    It never ceases to amaze me how these right wing disciples of Christianity will lie and cheat, spread misinformation, make slanderous claims for personal gain and believe they are entitled to do it cos well… God is on their side?

    • Stuart Munro 6.1
      13 October 2020 at 10:41 am

      They've been in decline for a generation.

      The moral low point was probably their doing to death of Alan Hubbard, they may not have actually killed him, but they wrecked his company and looted it without a shred of judicial oversight. All the current Gnat insiders went along with it.

      What passed for intellect decamped with Finlayson.

      They're not worth saving, but it would be better for NZ if they could scare up a rational opposition.

    • greywarshark 6.2
      13 October 2020 at 11:01 am

      Christianity has been brought (bought) low when it is used as a brand or like a trademark for virtue-signalling.

    • roblogic 6.3
      13 October 2020 at 4:28 pm

      The right wing of Christianity exists to legitimise warmongers, money-changers, and false prophets/ conspiracy-pedlars preying on the faithful

  7. Patricia Bremner 7
    13 October 2020 at 10:19 am

    Their campaign is in tatters Micky, my National relatives say many in Rotorua are voting Labour… to keep the Greens out, and "Jacinda has done well"

    No mention of Judith at all, it appeared she is not even worth a comment.

    This feels so different to all other elections. I have a bottle of bubbly ready and the nibbles… I will be watching certain Green candidates results and certain bellwether seats.

    People are engaged and this vote should give a real tangible mandate.

    • Gristle 7.1
      13 October 2020 at 1:26 pm

      My approach to electioneering has been to argue with normal National voters that it's a Labour government is almost guaranteed. So they should vote Labour to moderate the Green impact.

      And then, argue with normal Labour voters that they should vote Green to ensure Labour does not abandon social and environmental goals.

      My success so far is to have moved 2 National voters from Act to Labour, and 3 Labour to Green.

      (And don't try any of your subtle arguments on me as I have already voted.)

    • Chris 7.2
      13 October 2020 at 8:48 pm

      Perhaps younger voters and those overseas might knock the result higher than what the polls are saying right now.

  8. Brendan 8
    13 October 2020 at 11:04 am

    Nat voter here

    Simply put the Nats are not doing well. And when things don't go well you see their character exposed. Some will blossom, others will explode.

    Any way it looks as if team red is in a strong position for a good result this election.

  9. RedBaronCV 9
    13 October 2020 at 11:58 am

    Now if the more ethical centrist Nats used the meltdown to try and ankle tap some of the less savoury say Ngaro and remove them, then that would be impressive.

  10. PaddyOT 10
    13 October 2020 at 1:59 pm

    How not to campaign in a country with high obesity stats and make a judgement about one's own lack of personal responsibilty.

    Casting shame as an election tactic.

    Thomas Coughlan comments, who is with Judith Collins in Waikanae today

    " Back to that interesting exchange on obesity and personal responsibility between Judith Collins and a reporter.

    Reporter: What do you mean when you say it's time to stop blaming the system for obesity, and people need to start taking personal responsibility?

    Collins: Exactly what I said.

    Reporter: Do you think it's epidemic?

    Collins: No, it's not catching.

    Reporter: What do you make of calls in the wake of your comments to make discrimination based on weight illegal.

    Collins: Look, many of us can do better on this. I'll tell you what, take some personal responsibility.

    Reporter: And some have called your comments heartless. Your response?

    Collins: Do you know what is heartless? Is actually thinking that someone else can cure these issues. We can all take personal responsibility, and we all have to own up to our little weaknesses on these matters.

    Reporter: Do you think obesity is a weakness?

    Collins: Yes certainly. It's the one that many of us do. We actually entirely have to take personal responsibility. Do not blame systems for personal choices.

    Another reporter said that would seem to be somewhat divergent from the medical science. A lot of research had been done on the issue in past decade, which would challenge that view.

    Trump Collins: I bet I've read more than you have on it."

  11. John 11
    13 October 2020 at 3:14 pm

    Even in Whangarei its "Vote Reti" in his media adverts. Not asking for party vote at all. They must be shit scared this time around. Caucus meetings in a phone box for the Nats, hopefully, post Oct 17th. Loving it.

  12. ScottGN 12
    13 October 2020 at 8:02 pm

    Had a bit of a run in with a woman I know tangentially. I’d said the PM was my local MP and I was looking forward to voting for her. “What’s she ever done?” the woman spat at me. I replied that, right now, she seemed to be pretty much single-handedly destroying the National Party and I was happy with that.

  13. Hunter Thompson II 13
    14 October 2020 at 7:43 am

    At least the Natz' disastrous 2020 campaign will be useful to students of politics and their university lecturers. Someone will probably write a book about it.

    It is also entertaining, in a weird and twisted way.

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    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    7 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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