web analytics

If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!

Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, March 6th, 2012 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Here’s the trend for the past six months of Roy Morgans projected to the next election.

I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off) or even to point out how steep National’s current rate of descent and the Left’s ascent is, but to make a point: the continuation of the current trend is obviously not realistic. Therefore, at some point the tide will stop ebbing for National. There’s even a chance it could start rising again.

It would be foolish to think that the Left has 2014 wrapped up. Labour just got the tar kicked out of it. It’s weaker as a result in ways that are only just starting to manifest. Such as their inability to get timely press releases out. Key is still 4.5 times more preferred for PM than the alternative. That will matter when people decide who to vote for, or if they’ll just stay home.

Party support moves in waves. The skill of politics is to make the crests higher. The troughs shallower. My concern is that the absentee leader of the opposition is pulling a Disco Stu –

“Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976?

If these trends continue… AAY!”

22 comments on “If these trends continue… A-y-y-y! ”

  1. Uturn 1

    If you tip the graph on its end, what you discover is that National and Labour have collided and wedged themselves on top of a large pointy mountain.

  2. Te Reo Putake 2

    Good post, Zet. I like the Roy Morgan polls because they have a depth of detail sadly missing from the others. You are dead right to point out that it’s not a done deal that the left will win in 2014. There is much work to be done, both in convincing voters to get off their chuffs and also in setting the scene for the governing coalition that will need to be formed by working together as an effective opposition in this Parliament.
     
    I would also add that I don’t think the next election will be in 2014, because I don’t think this Government will make it through the full term. The signs of imminent collapse are showing already and if Dunne goes feral, then all bets are off.
     
    And one final point, Shearer has been all over the news in the last couple of days so the ‘absentee’ attack is poorly timed, childish and factually wrong. The preferred PM poll is a red herring, IMHO. Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM. Shearer is popular, relatively, and looks a good bet to be PM whenever the election is called. Unless the left descend into the usual partisan sniping, in the style of the ‘absentee’ jibe.

    • lprent 2.1

      The preferred PM poll is and always has been kind of ridiculous. It doesn’t bear much relationship to the party votes, which is what wins the treasury seats. I tend to view it as simply being something that is easy for the talking heads to explain in a 20 second sound bite on the TV news – and has no more significance than that.

      • muzza 2.1.1

        It is a talking point for idiots that much is clear. If I were a Labour supporter I would hope that it does not play too much of a role, because Shearer is not a leaders arse, that much is as obvious, as it was to say the same about key! The only rise I predict Shearer to get is either by default, or because some of the idiots who “liked” JK or perhaps didn’t vote at all, decide to try that humanitarian DS. Either way its a sympathy vote!
        Lets see some real political courage in this country, not just changing of govt only as a need to remove the last failure!

  3. I agree the ‘Preferred PM” polls are meaningless.

    Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM.

    Not necessarily. Hadn’t Goff had already ruled out Mana? He would still have had to get coalition agreements with Greens, Maori and NZ First. That may not have been straight forward.

    • felix 3.1

      None of it’s straightforward though Pete.

      Getting National in again relied on having two of their arch-conservative former MPs take over their libertarian support party, while they were both National party members!

      Agree about the preferred PM though, total distraction.

      IMO it reinforces the false notion that our system allows us to vote for a PM.

      • Pete George 3.1.1

        Even the ‘if you voted today which party would you support?” question is divorced from the reality of election time decision making. Especially this far from the next election.

        • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1

          Probably the only way to really get the answers we want is to ask both questions:
          1. Who would you vote for today?
          2. Who would you vote for in the next general election, scheduled for 2014?

          Both questions have problems with them.

          Simply asking both questions together probably won’t be very helpful though either, because it will make respondents feel stupid if they answer different parties for the questions, so then it would matter which question was asked first as to how they’d frame the answer.

    • Honestly, I’ll believe that a potential PM wouldn’t go into coalition with a party when they actually have the opportunity to form a government with them and turn it down. Until then I am highly skeptical.

    • Te Reo Putake 3.3

      Labour have stitched together minority coalitions before, Pete, so no worries there. And Hone is, at worst, a neutral vote. He is almost certain to be voting for most legislation proposed by a left led Government, even if he is not part of it.
       
      As I said, a couple of seats would have left Goff able to try and put an alternative together, particularly if the two seats were Epsom and Ohariu. Without support from the right wing MP’s in those seats, National would be faced with the choice of leading a minority Government which didn’t quite have the numbers to get asset sales through or leave it to Goff to run an even smaller minority coalition Government that would have to do the numbers on every bit of legislation they proposed. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

  4. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

    I agree on both points. But they have made it work when they had a strong leader who chose not to include both Greens and NZ First in a coalition. Goff had trouble getting his own party to work with and support him.

    • Te Reo Putake 4.1

      I suspect Goff’s main advantage if he had the chance to put something together is that he knows and is liked by just about everyone in the house. Maybe not liked in a matey kind of way, but well enough to get Winston and the Greens in the same room together, something HC couldn’t quite acheive. Anyway, it’s not going to happen now for Goff, but I do think Shearer, having spent his working life getting warring factions to do the right thing, will be ideally placed to lead whatever coalition option is finally agreed upon.

      • Pete George 4.1.1

        Yes, too late for Goff.

        I hope Shearer can rise to the occasion. If he’s allowed to last that long.

        • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1.1

          Ho ho, very droll, Pete. You do recall that the MSM and righty bloggers like yourself spent the last 3 years predicting that Goff was going to be rolled, don’t you? And it never happened, even though Goff never managed to click with the public and was bombarded with media negativity all through his leadership. Shearer, on the other hand, is already more popular, has a clear majority in caucus and is being talked about in the media as the likely winner of the next election.

          • Pete George 4.1.1.1.1

            righty bloggers like yourself

            Very funny.

            I don’t think Shearer’s biggest potential problems will come from right winger bloggers and MSM – around him and within is where the competition is. Some of that can be ruthless, given half a sniff.

            About this time last term I approached people in Labour to see if I could contribute to them rebuilding. This was before I was on political blogs and acquired first lefty and later righty labels (when they don’t acuse me of sitting on the fence). They sounded sort of interested, we talked about doing something but then they didn’t follow up so I left it at that. They must have thought they had enough supporters and members.

            In retrospect I’m glad it worked that way, because I would have been as frustrated as hell. I think Labour as good as wasted the whole term when they should have been rebuilding and refreshing. I’m sure I’m not alone in making that assessment.

            I hope Shearer can inspire a renewal. I’d like to see all parties as strong as possible – that’s particularly important for presumed next government parties.

  5. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 5

    In 1976, the year before Elvis’ death, there were 9 full time Elvis impersonators in the world. By 1978, the year after his death, there were 72. Based on this exponential growth, I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      I guess you both missed this specific statement:

      “I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off)”

      and the entire thrust of the post itself?

  6. swordfish 6

    “I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.”

    And you were quite right, it’s currently one in two. Have you not noticed John Key and Gerry Brownlee in their sequinned flares ? Murray McCully’s highly suggestive pelvic gyrations ?

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 6.1

      I routinely reflect on how much better the world would be had I been correct.

  7. Georgy 7

    Maybe Shearer is doing something that a politician leader hasn’t done for a long time – sat, thought, quietly developed strategy, quietly set up his caucus and other support teams, quietly put in place some foundations and work with his team developing good relationships, team spirit, vision and committment.

    And isn’t Key making himself look silly with his inane comments and retorts and pathetic with his floundering economic management without the need for a sniping carping opposition?

    The dignity of Shearer looks good against the witlessness of Key.

  8. Georgy 8

    Has this disappeared?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruapehu cycle trails gets PGF boost
    The spectacular Mountains to Sea cycle trail in Ruapehu District will receive $4.6 million in funding from the Provincial Growth Fund for two additional trails, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This is an exciting development for the local community, and one that will provide significant economic opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Update to air border order strengthens crew requirements
    Additional measures coming into effect on Monday will boost our defence against COVID-19 entering New Zealand through the air border, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “As part of our precautionary approach and strategy of constant review, we’re tightening the requirements around international aircrew,” Chris Hipkins said. The COVID-19 Public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • A true picture of Māori business activity
    A better picture of the contribution Māori businesses make to the economy will be possible with changes to the way information is collected about companies and trading enterprises. Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash have announced a new option for Māori enterprises who are part ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • PGF funding for Taranaki projects
    The South Taranaki museum, a New Plymouth distillery and a Pasifika building firm will benefit from a Government investment totalling more than $1 million, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. The $1.05m in grants and loans from the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) will help the recipients expand and create ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Fijian Language Week 2020 inspires courage and strength during COVID-19 pandemic
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says the theme for the 2020 Fijian Language Week reflects the strong belief by Fijians that their language and culture inspires courage and strength that is strongly needed in times of emergencies, or through a significant challenge like the global COVID-19 pandemic ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Trades training builds on iwi aspirations
    An investment of $2.025 million from the Māori Trades and Training Fund will support Māori to learn new skills while making a positive difference for their communities, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “K3 Development Limited Partnership will receive $2,025,000 for its Takitimu Tuanui apprenticeship programme, which will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago