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If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!

Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, March 6th, 2012 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Here’s the trend for the past six months of Roy Morgans projected to the next election.

I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off) or even to point out how steep National’s current rate of descent and the Left’s ascent is, but to make a point: the continuation of the current trend is obviously not realistic. Therefore, at some point the tide will stop ebbing for National. There’s even a chance it could start rising again.

It would be foolish to think that the Left has 2014 wrapped up. Labour just got the tar kicked out of it. It’s weaker as a result in ways that are only just starting to manifest. Such as their inability to get timely press releases out. Key is still 4.5 times more preferred for PM than the alternative. That will matter when people decide who to vote for, or if they’ll just stay home.

Party support moves in waves. The skill of politics is to make the crests higher. The troughs shallower. My concern is that the absentee leader of the opposition is pulling a Disco Stu –

“Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976?

If these trends continue… AAY!”


22 comments on “If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!”

  1. Uturn 1

    If you tip the graph on its end, what you discover is that National and Labour have collided and wedged themselves on top of a large pointy mountain.

  2. Te Reo Putake 2

    Good post, Zet. I like the Roy Morgan polls because they have a depth of detail sadly missing from the others. You are dead right to point out that it’s not a done deal that the left will win in 2014. There is much work to be done, both in convincing voters to get off their chuffs and also in setting the scene for the governing coalition that will need to be formed by working together as an effective opposition in this Parliament.
    I would also add that I don’t think the next election will be in 2014, because I don’t think this Government will make it through the full term. The signs of imminent collapse are showing already and if Dunne goes feral, then all bets are off.
    And one final point, Shearer has been all over the news in the last couple of days so the ‘absentee’ attack is poorly timed, childish and factually wrong. The preferred PM poll is a red herring, IMHO. Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM. Shearer is popular, relatively, and looks a good bet to be PM whenever the election is called. Unless the left descend into the usual partisan sniping, in the style of the ‘absentee’ jibe.

    • lprent 2.1

      The preferred PM poll is and always has been kind of ridiculous. It doesn’t bear much relationship to the party votes, which is what wins the treasury seats. I tend to view it as simply being something that is easy for the talking heads to explain in a 20 second sound bite on the TV news – and has no more significance than that.

      • muzza 2.1.1

        It is a talking point for idiots that much is clear. If I were a Labour supporter I would hope that it does not play too much of a role, because Shearer is not a leaders arse, that much is as obvious, as it was to say the same about key! The only rise I predict Shearer to get is either by default, or because some of the idiots who “liked” JK or perhaps didn’t vote at all, decide to try that humanitarian DS. Either way its a sympathy vote!
        Lets see some real political courage in this country, not just changing of govt only as a need to remove the last failure!

  3. I agree the ‘Preferred PM” polls are meaningless.

    Goff clearly wasn’t popular and he got within a seat or two of becoming PM.

    Not necessarily. Hadn’t Goff had already ruled out Mana? He would still have had to get coalition agreements with Greens, Maori and NZ First. That may not have been straight forward.

    • felix 3.1

      None of it’s straightforward though Pete.

      Getting National in again relied on having two of their arch-conservative former MPs take over their libertarian support party, while they were both National party members!

      Agree about the preferred PM though, total distraction.

      IMO it reinforces the false notion that our system allows us to vote for a PM.

      • Pete George 3.1.1

        Even the ‘if you voted today which party would you support?” question is divorced from the reality of election time decision making. Especially this far from the next election.

        • Lanthanide

          Probably the only way to really get the answers we want is to ask both questions:
          1. Who would you vote for today?
          2. Who would you vote for in the next general election, scheduled for 2014?

          Both questions have problems with them.

          Simply asking both questions together probably won’t be very helpful though either, because it will make respondents feel stupid if they answer different parties for the questions, so then it would matter which question was asked first as to how they’d frame the answer.

    • Honestly, I’ll believe that a potential PM wouldn’t go into coalition with a party when they actually have the opportunity to form a government with them and turn it down. Until then I am highly skeptical.

    • Te Reo Putake 3.3

      Labour have stitched together minority coalitions before, Pete, so no worries there. And Hone is, at worst, a neutral vote. He is almost certain to be voting for most legislation proposed by a left led Government, even if he is not part of it.
      As I said, a couple of seats would have left Goff able to try and put an alternative together, particularly if the two seats were Epsom and Ohariu. Without support from the right wing MP’s in those seats, National would be faced with the choice of leading a minority Government which didn’t quite have the numbers to get asset sales through or leave it to Goff to run an even smaller minority coalition Government that would have to do the numbers on every bit of legislation they proposed. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

  4. In either of those scenarios leading the Government would be difficult, but Labour do have the experience of making it work.

    I agree on both points. But they have made it work when they had a strong leader who chose not to include both Greens and NZ First in a coalition. Goff had trouble getting his own party to work with and support him.

    • Te Reo Putake 4.1

      I suspect Goff’s main advantage if he had the chance to put something together is that he knows and is liked by just about everyone in the house. Maybe not liked in a matey kind of way, but well enough to get Winston and the Greens in the same room together, something HC couldn’t quite acheive. Anyway, it’s not going to happen now for Goff, but I do think Shearer, having spent his working life getting warring factions to do the right thing, will be ideally placed to lead whatever coalition option is finally agreed upon.

      • Pete George 4.1.1

        Yes, too late for Goff.

        I hope Shearer can rise to the occasion. If he’s allowed to last that long.

        • Te Reo Putake

          Ho ho, very droll, Pete. You do recall that the MSM and righty bloggers like yourself spent the last 3 years predicting that Goff was going to be rolled, don’t you? And it never happened, even though Goff never managed to click with the public and was bombarded with media negativity all through his leadership. Shearer, on the other hand, is already more popular, has a clear majority in caucus and is being talked about in the media as the likely winner of the next election.

          • Pete George

            righty bloggers like yourself

            Very funny.

            I don’t think Shearer’s biggest potential problems will come from right winger bloggers and MSM – around him and within is where the competition is. Some of that can be ruthless, given half a sniff.

            About this time last term I approached people in Labour to see if I could contribute to them rebuilding. This was before I was on political blogs and acquired first lefty and later righty labels (when they don’t acuse me of sitting on the fence). They sounded sort of interested, we talked about doing something but then they didn’t follow up so I left it at that. They must have thought they had enough supporters and members.

            In retrospect I’m glad it worked that way, because I would have been as frustrated as hell. I think Labour as good as wasted the whole term when they should have been rebuilding and refreshing. I’m sure I’m not alone in making that assessment.

            I hope Shearer can inspire a renewal. I’d like to see all parties as strong as possible – that’s particularly important for presumed next government parties.

  5. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 5

    In 1976, the year before Elvis’ death, there were 9 full time Elvis impersonators in the world. By 1978, the year after his death, there were 72. Based on this exponential growth, I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      I guess you both missed this specific statement:

      “I made this graph, not to piss Righties off with its obvious outrageous-ness (OK, not just to piss Righties off)”

      and the entire thrust of the post itself?

  6. swordfish 6

    “I then confidently predicted that, by some time in 1984, one in three people would be an Elvis impersonator.”

    And you were quite right, it’s currently one in two. Have you not noticed John Key and Gerry Brownlee in their sequinned flares ? Murray McCully’s highly suggestive pelvic gyrations ?

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 6.1

      I routinely reflect on how much better the world would be had I been correct.

  7. Georgy 7

    Maybe Shearer is doing something that a politician leader hasn’t done for a long time – sat, thought, quietly developed strategy, quietly set up his caucus and other support teams, quietly put in place some foundations and work with his team developing good relationships, team spirit, vision and committment.

    And isn’t Key making himself look silly with his inane comments and retorts and pathetic with his floundering economic management without the need for a sniping carping opposition?

    The dignity of Shearer looks good against the witlessness of Key.

  8. Georgy 8

    Has this disappeared?

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