Is Progress Real?
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2:41 pm, December 31st, 2020 - 65 comments
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It’s hard to overstate the extraordinary merging of events in Europe that led to the Industrial Revolution exploding in the mid-1800’s. There was of course at least 200 years of prior scene setting, across the sciences, philosophy and political arena’s. In say the year 1600 the so-called Renaissance was really the project of barely a few hundred elite individuals, located in a handful of European cities. (The fact of individuals like Leibniz were inventing to core of modern calculus, or Kepler determining the nature of orbital mechanics, while literally their next door neighbours still lived in a world of superstition, violence and often shocking cruelty is something that always intrigued me, and stands as an object lesson in humility.)
But such intellectual flowerings had occurred before, the Classical era being the most obvious instance, and similar events can be found scattered across the pages of history, but none went on to dominate the entire planet, and the reasons are not especially obvious.
Even why it was initially located in Europe and not say India, China or Africa are still the subject of considerable debate. Personally I still think Jared Diamond’s attempt in Guns, Germs and Steel remains one of the more coherent efforts, but he isn’t without his critics either. Diamond argues that it was essentially due to an accident of geography, biology and climate. But regardless of it’s narrow origins, the remarkable outcome has been an almost inexorable extension of human development and social progress across the entire planet.
Yet at every step in this process there has been vociferous resistance, a repeated versioning of apocalyptic alarums. Early in the process we had Malthus telling us that we would collapse because of population, Marx because capitalism, and numerous Victorian authors writing of the ‘infernal engines’ of industrialisation, culminating in the hugely popular works of Tolkien. And indeed the first crude manifestations of the Victorian era industrialisation were intolerably dangerous, inefficient and ugly. Yet despite the obvious deficiencies progress incomes were slowly rising, housing and public health improved, consumer goods became available to mass markets, railways and reliable ships made travel possible, literacy slowly became universal, professions such as nursing, teaching, engineering, medicine and law started to flourish. Police forces were established to reduce crime and violence, and political systems became more adept at policy and regulation. Nothing was of course perfect, but ordinary people could sense their lives were improving … and this more than anything else was sufficient to overcome the naysayers, even through two catastrophic world wars.
Post WW2 saw an enormous acceleration of the process. The US-led world trade order meant virtually all nations this side of the Iron Curtain could participate in trade and development. The collapse of the colonial empires signaled a new era in nation building, and the prospect of a global order. Oil became cheap and abundant, wartime technologies rapidly found new applications in civilian life. The abject failure of the marxist projects in Russia and China demoralised the anti-capitalists, NASA put humans on the moon, and for around three decades until the late 60’s the capitalist/industrialist paradigm was an unchallengeable success. So much so that it forgot to examine the fault lines in it’s assumptions. Vietnam and the US race riots, the counter culture revolution, second wave feminism were all symptoms of a culture with very shallow, materialist roots.
And within corners of academia the apocalyptic Malthusian thinkers adapted. Unable to challenge the economic order directly they chose to morph their ideas into post-modernism and environmentalism. Both had important things to say; post-modernism challenged the unexamined self righteousness of a dominating Euro-centric cultural order, while environmentalism rightly pointed to industrialisation’s failure to account for it externalities.
The environmental argument first revisited Malthusian population arguments, yet by 1968 demographers knew that human population growth had already peaked and was destined to decline. Then they argued for different limits, that we would exhaust mineral and oil resources, or that we would run out of environmental ‘sinks’ for our waste streams. The most important of these ideas was of course the limits on CO2 in the atmosphere.
The post-modernists started more quietly, making the valid point that reality does not privilege any one cultural narrative over any other. That because our limited human intellects have no direct access to absolute truth, therefore all narratives are limited, selective and ultimately self-serving. That in essence all culture is a construct intended to serve the interests, privileges and powers of the people who promote it. And thus the entire edifice of ‘progress’ has been built on nothing but a castle of deceptions and exploitation; an argument intended to delegitimise the notion of progress itself. Hence the title of this essay.
And since the 1970’s there has been a strong counter current movement built on these two ideas that has insisted either this progress has been achieved at a price to the planet we cannot afford to pay, or that what we have purchased was nothing but shoddy self-delusion. Both asked legitimate questions, both applied an entirely justified scrutiny to the dominant social and economic order, both posited apocalyptic outcomes if they were ignored, yet neither offered any solution beyond a poorly qualified demand that if ‘progress’ had such bad outcomes, it must therefore be dismantled. Or alternatively after passing through a crisis, some utopian reshaping of the disorganised rubble would become possible. (That both strands of apocalyptic thinking have degenerated into multiple camps of extremists is not very surprising, neither ever had any satisfiable end-point to their demands.)
Yet for all of it’s manifest shortcomings the great beast lumbered on, seemingly impervious to the increasingly shrill cries of those insisting that it was trudging toward an abyss. And this past year has in retrospect given us glimpses of what that precipice might look like, the great fossil fueled evolution of humanity, with all that it has brought us for good and ill, may well have finally reached it’s innate limits. We enter into a wholly unprecedented demographic inversion with ageing populations, game changing technical innovation slowed or stalled, and politically we’ve tried marxism, fascism and neo-liberalism … and none of them have proven useful either.
My thesis so far is that reaching back into the past, to try and solve the new problems of our present, while not always unreasonable, fails when confronted with the novel and unknown.
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- Release: Labour to keep lifting worker wages and rightsA re-elected Labour Government will protect hard-fought workers’ rights and keep the momentum on wage growth to lift incomes for all New Zealanders, leader Chris Hipkins announced today. ...6 days ago
- New Zealand First Party List 2023New Zealand First is proud to announce the Party List for the upcoming 2023 General Election. We have had a great number of applicants and potential candidates moving through the selection process over the past few months. Our final selection for our list proves we have a wide range ...6 days ago
- A National/ACT Government would make life miserable for those already worst offOnly a party vote for the Greens will end poverty. ACT’S welfare policy announced today is as cruel as it gets. ...7 days ago
- Release: Willis’ resignation call means only one thing – $2 billion more cutsMassive cuts to public service are on the cards as Nicola Willis has promised to resign if she doesn’t deliver tax cuts but is refusing to make the same commitment if she doesn’t raise enough income from her bungled foreign buyer’s tax. ...7 days ago
- Release: A faster justice system focused on victimsLabour will help more victims of crime achieve justice faster by introducing a formal class-action regime, modernising consent laws and increasing the use of technology to speed up hearings. ...7 days ago
- Release: Gaping hole confirmed in National’s tax planA whopping $2.1 billion dollar hole has been confirmed in National’s tax scheme in a new report released today. ...1 week ago
- Labour pledges biggest ever increase to training DoctorsLabour will deliver the largest ever increase to the number of doctors trained each year, adding an additional 335 doctors a year to our health workforce from 2027, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins has announced. ...1 week ago
- State of books makes clear case for wealth taxThe case for a wealth tax has never been stronger. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour pledges free cervical screeningIf re-elected Labour will make cervical screening services free to all women and people with a cervix aged 25 – 69 years, delivering better cancer care for over 1.4 million New Zealanders. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins sets out 9 key pledges to New ZealandLabour Leader Chris Hipkins has set out nine key pledges to be achieved in his first full term as Prime Minister. ...2 weeks ago
- Labour's Plan 2023Labour is running a positive, forward-looking campaign that's focused on fixing the cost of living, keeping people and communities safe and investing in education, health and housing. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Coalition of Cuts and Chaos would be NZ’s most unstable governmentStatements from David Seymour and Winston Peters have called into question whether National would be able to lead a functional government if they were in a position to do so after the election. ...2 weeks ago
- Healthy Ocean Act – Marama Davidson SpeechHe mōhio ō tātou tīpuna ki te tirotiro taiao. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens will demand Minister for Oceans and Fisheries to lead ocean rescue planThe Green Party will protect 30% of the ocean by 2030, create an independent Ocean Commission to advise the government, and put a Green Minister for Oceans and Fisheries in charge of making it happen. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National's dodgy tax scheme couldn't be done – according to John KeyNational's shaky tax scheme has received a further blow after it’s been revealed that John Key received advice when he was Prime Minister that the scheme being proposed by National couldn’t be done, Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson says. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: No new funding, no timelines – National’s empty housing policyThe National Party’s housing policy is vacant; with no new funding and no timelines attached to its delivery says Labour Housing Spokesperson Megan Woods. ...2 weeks ago
- Bills lower, climate happier under Green Party planLabour’s announcement of an energy rebate is a step in the right direction, but the Greens’ Clean Power Payment would do much more for households. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Household rebates for energy efficient homes under LabourA re-elected Labour Government will help Kiwi households to be more energy efficient and reduce emissions from household energy use, Labour Spokesperson for Building and Construction and Energy and Resources, Megan Woods, announced today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour will deliver largest Police service in historyA Labour Government will deliver a further increase of 300 additional frontline Police officers, new ways to crackdown on gangs and strengthen legal protections against stalking and harassment. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens welcome launch of Te Ohu Tāmaki and challenges other parties on housingThe Green Party is welcoming the launch of Te Ohu Tāmaki, and affirms its commitment to clear the social housing waitlist in 5 years - and challenges other parties to say they will do the same. ...2 weeks ago
- National put climate action into reverse gearThe National Party’s plan to install EV chargers while at the same time making it harder for people to buy an EV is bizarre and ridiculous. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Hipkins sets out plan to grow NZ economyLabour leader Chris Hipkins has set out his top five priorities for growing the economy which include ambition for New Zealand to be a global leader in sustainable agriculture and renewable energy. ...2 weeks ago
- Former Wellington Mayor Andy Foster To Stand For New Zealand FirstFormer Wellington Mayor Andy Foster has announced he is standing for New Zealand First in the Mana electorate for the upcoming election. “As a former Mayor of our Capital City, Andy has an exceptional resume and level of professional and governance experience that will be an asset to the team.” ...2 weeks ago
- 10 of our favourite Chris Hipkins momentsIt’s Chris Hipkins’ birthday today, and to celebrate we’re taking a look back at some of his most defining moments. During his time at Parliament, he’s led New Zealand through some difficult times, delivered change that will make a real difference to Kiwis' lives, and given us a few laughs. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Show us your costingsRevelations on Newshub tonight that National only got an expert to review their tax plan two days after it was released adds further fuel to the call for Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis to release all costings and advice they have received on it, Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson said. ...3 weeks ago
- National’s climate pledge a jokeToday’s pledge from the National Party to deliver net zero carbon by 2050 is a bad-faith, disingenuous, and empty promise. ...3 weeks ago
- Glenfield Policy AnnouncementNo MP pay rises until essential workers get one first. The pay freeze for parliamentarians is due to end this year, with a hefty pay rise forecasted. The fact is when this announcement was made that Members of Parliament would receive a pay rise, in the middle of an ...3 weeks ago
- Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...16 hours ago - Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-upAnother $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...18 hours ago
- Taupō Supercars revs up with Government supportThe future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...18 hours ago
- There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarterThe economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...20 hours ago
- Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springsThe Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...21 hours ago
- More support for victims of migrant exploitationTemporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...2 days ago
- Strong export boost as NZ economy turns cornerAn export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...2 days ago
- Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te KarakaThe Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...2 days ago
- Further business support for cyclone-affected regionsThe Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...2 days ago
- New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underwayDefence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...2 days ago
- Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General AssemblyForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...3 days ago
- Midwives’ pay equity offer reachedAround 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...7 days ago
- New Zealand provides support to MoroccoAotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...1 week ago
- Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilienceThe Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...1 week ago
- Government invests in Greymouth’s futureThe Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...1 week ago
- Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ MeetingForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...1 week ago
- PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflationEconomy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...1 week ago
- New cancer centre opens in ChristchurchPrime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...1 week ago
- Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience$12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...2 weeks ago
- New Wildlife Act to better protect native speciesThe 70-year-old Wildlife Act will be replaced with modern, fit-for-purpose legislation to better protect native species and improve biodiversity, Minister of Conservation Willow-Jean Prime has announced. “New species legislation is urgently needed to address New Zealand’s biodiversity crisis,” Willow-Jean Prime said. “More than 4,000 of our native species are currently ...2 weeks ago
- Further safety initiatives for Auckland City CentreCentral and Local Government are today announcing a range of new measures to tackle low-level crime and anti-social behaviour in the Auckland CBD to complement Police scaling up their presence in the area. “Police have an important role to play in preventing and responding to crime, but there is more ...2 weeks ago
- Govt confirms additional support for Enabling Good LivesThe Government has confirmed $73.7 million over the next four years and a further $40.5m in outyears to continue to transform the disability support system, Minister for Disability Issues Priyanca Radhakrishnan has announced. “The Enabling Good Lives (EGL) approach is a framework which guides positive change for disabled people, ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand gets AAA credit rating from S&PStandard and Poor’s is the latest independent credit rating agency to endorse the Government’s economic management in the face of a deteriorating global economy. S&P affirmed New Zealand’s long term local currency rating at AAA and foreign currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. It follows Fitch affirming New ...2 weeks ago
- Appointment of Environment Court JudgeChristchurch barrister Kelvin Reid has been appointed as a Judge of the Environment Court and the District Court, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Mr Reid has extensive experience in Resource Management Act issues, including water quality throughout the South Island. He was appointed to the Technical Advisory Group advising the ...2 weeks ago
- NZ’s biggest ever emissions reduction project hits milestoneNew Zealand is on track to have greener steel as soon as 2026 with New Zealand Steel’s electric arc furnace project reaching a major milestone today. The Government announced a conditional partnership with New Zealand Steel in May to deliver the country’s largest emissions reduction project to date. Half of ...2 weeks ago
- Poroporoaki: Paki Leslie Māngai NikoraPokia ana te tihi Taiarahia e Hine-Pūkohu-rangi Hotu kau ana te manawa! Horahia ana te whārua o Ruātoki e te kapua pouri Tikaro rawahia ko te whatumanawa! Rere whakamuri kau ana te awa o Hinemataroa Ki te kawe i te rongo ki te mātāpuna i nga pōngaihu Maungapōhatu, tuohu ...2 weeks ago
- 50,000 charges laid in crack down on gangsPolice Minister Ginny Andersen has today congratulated Police in their efforts to crack down on gangs, after laying 50,000 charges against gang members and their associates through the hugely successful Operation Cobalt. As at 31 August, Police have: Laid 50,396 criminal charges against gang members and their associates Issued 64,524 ...2 weeks ago
- Farmers and cyclone-affected properties supported with tax rule changesThe Government has confirmed details of the tax changes to the bright-line test for cyclone-damaged properties, with the release of the required legislative amendments. Revenue Minister Barbara Edmonds has released a Supplementary Order Paper (SOP) to be considered by the Finance and Expenditure Committee in the next Parliament, as it ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand wins CPTPP dispute against CanadaMinister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor has welcomed the CPTPP Panel’s ruling in favour of New Zealand in our dispute against Canada, a significant win for our primary sector exporters. The Panel found that Canada’s dairy quota administration is inconsistent with its obligations under the Comprehensive and Progressive ...2 weeks ago
- New intensive turnaround programme launched to break the cycle of offendingThe next phase of the Government’s response to youth crime is underway, with an intensive programme for the country’s most prolific young offenders launched today in Auckland, Minister for Children Kelvin Davis said. The programme, announced by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in July, will see up to 60 recidivist young ...2 weeks ago
- Government extends report date for COVID inquiryThe Government has agreed to a request from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 for extra three months to deliver its final report. The Royal Commission was established in 2022 to strengthen New Zealand’s preparedness for any future pandemics. It was originally due to conclude mid-2024. “The Commission has ...2 weeks ago
- Wainuiomata school property upgrade making great progressThe Wainuiomata High School redevelopment is making great progress, with two more classroom blocks set to be complete by the end of the month, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. The Prime Minister visited today to see first-hand the progress of the redevelopment which is continuing at pace and is ...2 weeks ago
- Language week focuses on sustaining Lea Faka-TongaNew Zealand’s Tongan community are coming together to promote language sustainability this week, as Uike Lea Faka-Tonga – Tongan Language Week begins. “For our Pacific communities, language is more than just a means of communication. It’s an important way to link generations and maintain connections to our ancestral roots,” Barbara ...3 weeks ago
- Raw Politics: Hipkins' strange failure to fire
This week on the Raw Politics podcast: We ask why Labour leader Chris Hipkins has failed to fire, as his party would have hoped, in this campaign so far. Plus: this week's debate, the latest polls and how relatively good economic news changes things in the run-up to election day. ...1 hour ago - Minor parties get fired up over crime and punishment
Crime has been one of the dominant themes of this election campaign and it proved to be the hot button in the second televised debate this week. As Mark Jennings writes, the leaders of the minor parties were taking no prisoners in their battle for crucial votes. TV Viewers interested ...2 hours ago - Peters predicts being in government and a pre-Xmas mini-Budget
Winston Peters is predicting a mini-Budget before Christmas and says it will come from a government his party will help form with 'like-minded parties' after the election It was an eclectic and unexpected mix of current and former politicians who fronted the Business North Harbour finance debate on Thursday. Initially billed ...2 hours ago - Electorates to watch: Candidates fight for face time in Whanganui
Candidates are working hard to get better known ahead of the election ...2 hours ago - Return of the Ferns
Football, netball, cricket and rugby - it's all on for Kiwi women's sports teams across the globe this weekend. Merryn Anderson gives the lowdown on all the Ferns action. Did you think, with the wave of World Cups receding from our shores, women's sport was about ...2 hours ago - A bright idea for Naseby
A tiny town in Central Otago that's already on the world map – for something a little different – is set to notch up another first in a few weeks if its sky high ambitions go to plan. Not content with its world famous curling rink to draw visitors, Naseby, population ...2 hours ago - I don't want Te Pāti Māori choosing my electoral roll
The Māori party is attempting to take us back to 1975 when Māori did not have a choice ...2 hours ago - The major health crisis ignored by election campaigns
Former MP laments lack of aged care policy in the 2023 election ...2 hours ago - The Prime Ministerial peril of changing horses mid-stream
To lead Labour to victory, Chris Hipkins would have to repeat a unique feat ...2 hours ago - Mayor Brown's Auckland Deal is the real deal
Mayor is right when he says a new relationship between government and the council is required ...2 hours ago - Govt suggests barring development in climate-exposed areas
New National Policy Statement prioritises nature-based adaptation. ...2 hours ago - Daily crossword, Friday 22 September
...2 hours ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 September
Loading...(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. ...3 hours ago - Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Labour defector Meka Whaitiri trails in latest poll
A third of voters remain undecided in the Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, a new poll is showing. ...7 hours ago - Grattan on Friday: Albanese government faces an uphill road and angry locals as it drives change to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Fire fear is gripping many Australians, with extremely high temperatures for September. One day this week some 20 schools on the New South Wales south coast were closed, amid rising weather risk. Sydney national parks ...8 hours ago - Cracks appear soon after show of unity from ACT, NZ First leadersAnalysis: David Seymour and Winston Peters indicated they could work together in government, but then went on to undermine each other in a lively debate. ...9 hours ago
- A Game Of Two Halves In Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
The Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is anyone’s game where a third of voters are yet to choose their candidate. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was flung open when former Labour minister, Meka Whaitiri, switched to Te Pāti Māori in May. A Whakaata Māori exclusive ...10 hours ago - Marama battles a fly, Winston gets heckled
While I’m sure the live broadcast is absolutely riveting, there’s something fun about sitting on a truly uncomfortable bench to watch the debate live. And there have already been a few moments that might not have made the telly. First up: Marama Davidson had a brief run in with a ...11 hours ago - Courts clogged by self-represented litigants, lawyers say; solutions proposedThe number of people representing themselves in civil cases has grown enormously in the past decade, prompting calls to relieve pressure on the court system. ...11 hours ago
- The Act-NZ First grand coalitionThe first section of tonight’s Newshub Nation Powerbrokers debate focused on co-governance, proving that mortal enemies David Seymour and Winston Peters may have more in common than they once thought. An early answer from Seymour prompted a quick eye roll from the Greens’ Marama Davidson, with Te Pāti Māori’s Debbie ...11 hours ago
- Coming up: The minor parties go head to headNewshub’s live Powerbrokers debate is at 7.30pm – and we couldn’t be more excited. A couple of us are in the studio as it all plays out and we’ll keep you up to date on any important moments. Because we’ve heard a lot from the Chrises on this campaign, but ...12 hours ago
- View from The Hill: Josh Frydenberg puts political ambition aside to remain in businessSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to put a business future before an attempted political revival is a blow for the Liberal Party, but a relief for the teal member for Kooyong, Monique Ryan. Opposition ...12 hours ago
- Election 2023: Sarah Pallett, Hamish Campbell and Raf Manji vye for Ilam's voteIlam's candidates are out campaigning for the public's vote, an electorate with a split voter base. ...13 hours ago
- Chris Luxon stands firm on spilling any more beans on policy trade-offs ahead of electionNational's leader won't make clear post-election negotiation trade-offs his party might make beyond what's already been indicated. ...14 hours ago
- 'Shattered': Māori health board head says National plans a huge step backThe head of Te Punanga Ora says National's policies for changes to Māori health partnership boards would 'lock in' poorer health for whānau. ...14 hours ago
- How did Taylor Swift get so popular? She never goes out of styleSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Pattison, PhD Candidate, RMIT University Last week, USA Today/Gannett posted a job ad for a Taylor Swift reporter, seeking an experienced journalist and content creator to “capture the music and cultural impact of Taylor Swift”. It’s not the first time ...14 hours ago
- Excessive screen time can affect young people’s emotional developmentSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Sharman, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast Shutterstock A recent Beyond Blue survey of more than 2,000 teachers identified mental ill-health and excessive screen time as the biggest problems facing their students. Comments from teachers ...14 hours ago
- A COVID inquiry has been announced. But is COVID still a thing? Do I need a booster?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Toole, Associate Principal Research Fellow, Burnet Institute Shutterstock Today’s announcement of an independent inquiry into Australia’s COVID response will examine how we’ve handled the pandemic and how we could better prepare for the next one.But ...15 hours ago
- Politics with Michelle Grattan: ANU Vice-Chancellor Brian Schmidt on the challenges universities fac...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Australia’s higher education sector is under heavy scrutiny. Still recovering from the impact of COVID and criticised for its treatment of staff, it faces strong pressures to step up its performance. The government launched a ...15 hours ago- NZ election 2023: Dear NZ, our foundations are in ruin and there’s no political courage for tomor...
COMMENTARY: By Martyn Bradbury Aotearoa New Zealand’s opposition – and poll leader — National Party’s three biggest donors have a combined net worth of $15 billion. The bottom 50 percent of NZ has $23 billion. The top 5 percent of New Zealanders own roughly 50 percent of New Zealand’s wealth, ...15 hours ago- Australia has officially given up on eradicating the Varroa mite. Now what?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cooper Schouten, Project Manager – Bees for Sustainable Livelihoods, Southern Cross University Varroa mites on drone pupae. Cooper Schouten/Southern Cross University, CC BY-SA The federal government body in charge of pest control has announced Australia will abandon efforts on eradicating the Varroa ...15 hours ago- Taxpayers' Union Welcomes ACTs Revised Alternative Budget
Commenting on the updates to ACT’s alternative budget, Taxpayers’ Union Policy Adviser, James Ross, said: “The only true tax cut is a spending cut, and we welcome ACT’s commitment to tackling the damage caused by 6 years of Labour’s dangerous ...15 hours ago- Moana Maniapoto challenges Winston Peters on campaign rhetoric
An interview that I missed earlier in the week that’s been doing the rounds on social media today. It’s a good watch. ...16 hours ago- Christmas Presents Head Off To Deployed New Zealand Defence Force Personnel
Thanks to the RNZRSA, a small piece of New Zealand is on its way to every member of the New Zealand Defence Force that will be deployed overseas this Christmas. <img src="https://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/2309/f4d24df4a1eb9d163b51.jpeg" ...16 hours ago- From ‘pebble in the shoe’ to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annie Te One, Lecturer in Māori Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington In his maiden speech to parliament in 2020, te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told his fellow MPs: You know what it feels like to have ...16 hours ago- Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National University Shutterstock This year’s heightened drumbeat of extreme weather shows us how little time we actually have to slash emissions. It is now clear that going ...16 hours ago- PNG’s immigration boss warns foreigners after arrest of NZ citizen
PNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s chief Immigration boss Stanis Hulahau has warned all foreign nationals in the country that the office will not hesitate to detain and expel them if found engaging in criminal and illegal activities. Chief executive Hulahau issued the stern warning to all foreign nationals in the ...16 hours ago- The door knocking experience that made Hinurewa te Hau smile
In the build up to October 14, we’ve asked a smattering of MPs and candidates from across the country for their favourite door knocking story from the campaign. Today: National’s candidate for the Māori seat of Tāmaki Makaurau, Hinurewa te Hau. We are door knocking the Māori seat of Tāmaki ...16 hours ago- Newsletter: September 21 2023 – Items of interest and importance today
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project. NZ Politics Daily: 21 September 2023 COALITION ARRANGEMENTS Felix Desmarais (1News): Kiwis want to know if Luxon will work with Peters Chris Trotter: Calling the ...16 hours ago- Orange Roughy Catch Limit A Good Start, But Seamount Trawling Ban Necessary, Say Environmentalists
Environmentalists have welcomed news that the orange roughy catch will be cut by 40%, but say the need for a bottom trawling ban on seamounts is more urgent than ever. Oceans and Fisheries Minister Rachel Brooking announced a cut to the orange ...17 hours ago- WorkSafe Job Losses Another Reminder Of Risks To Public Services This Election
Working people will bear the brunt of WorkSafe’s proposal for a deep and wide restructuring that was announced today said the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions. “Reducing WorkSafe’s capacity and capability is the wrong thing to be undertaking ...17 hours ago- Curious Kids: what came first, the chicken or the egg?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ellen K. Mather, Adjunct Associate Lecturer in Palaeontology, Flinders University Shutterstock/Edited by The Conversation What came first, the chicken or the egg? — Grace, age 12, Melbourne Hi Grace! Thanks for this great question. It’s an age-old dilemma ...17 hours ago- Government Penalises Sustainable Forestry In The ETS
The government announced today that it will impose an annual $30 per hectare charge on forestry projects that use exotic trees in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This will be another nail in the coffin of sustainable forestry and climate action ...17 hours ago- Health And Safety Of Workers At Risk With WorkSafe Restructuring Proposal
Workplaces will be less safe following WorkSafe’s decision to significantly restructure the organisation, says the Public Service Association. WorkSafe today unveiled restructuring plans which, if implemented, would significantly impact the organisation’s workforce, ...17 hours ago- I started reading Dan Carter’s self-help book for a joke. I finished it a changed man
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Thanks RL most of the way through your post I wanted to disagree with it but I got to the end and agreed with it whole heartedly. Good post.
Now explain how we change things so that current political processes get us through the next thirty years …
😀
I presume this Post is one in a series and I don’t want to pre-empt the next one(s) by writing a long counter argument or even a counter-post.
The answer to the title question is ‘it depends’ and ‘yes and no’.
Let me just say that in my view we must reach back into the past to understand how we got here and why, not how, we are facing the problems of our present. Without proper understanding, we will do the same/similar things when confronted again with the novel and unknown with similar consequences and outcomes. I will also add that I think that many if not all our present problems should be viewed more as a symptom/consequence than as a cause/phenomenon an sich.
Happy New Year.
Feel free to expand if you wish. I'm acutely aware that the post is an excessively condensed attempt at outlining 200 years of intellectual history; the mere attempt is probably a folly. But at least the comment thread can expand on the numerous points I've glossed over.
Yes this is a series and I do have a plan, yet good comments can prompt worthwhile diversions …
I’m in two minds and I have not yet fully decided how I will fill in New Year’s Eve.
Is our intellectual history equivalent to our technological/scientific history, in your view?
Condensing anything related to human history into 200 or so words comes with serious drawbacks 😉
No hurry, it's a slow week ….
I’m a slow thinker.
The "Progress" you describe is an illusion but may be useful in serving as a model for mankind of what not to do. It had to be done, evidenced by the vigour with which it was pursued, but is/was clearly pathological; we can learn from this realisation. We really are clever rascals, but failed to maintain our balance due to the headiness of our cleverness. There are encouraging signs that we recognise this now, or at least, a significant number of us do. There's no need to "throw the baby out with the bathwater" however; we won't squander the learning nor the technologies we've developed, but will/must apply those and the thinking that led to them, to restoring an equilibrium of sorts, to the environment we inhabit; city, farm, wherever. I've been reading Stephen Harrod Buhner's "Plant intelligence and the Imaginal realm" and in it he talks of Barbarians, bearded, long-haired and un-civilized and the need for more of them/us 🙂 "Barb", he explains, means "beard" and the wearing of those signifies membership in the Barbarian clan and the un-civilized/un-civilizing thinking and behaviour that goes with it. In part, reconnecting with other-than-human life, listening to the advice it offers (ceaselessly, freely) and adjusting our path accordingly. Our progress will be, not back to the future, but in to the imaginal realms, that turn out to be, surprise, surprise, where it's really at 🙂
It had to be done, evidenced by the vigour with which it was pursued, but is/was clearly pathological; we can learn from this realisation.
I'm not sure humanity's long march into modernity is best described as 'pathological'. Perhaps a better metaphor for the passage we have gone through is childhood …
"Old Growth" societies say our own is pathological and I agree with them. Pathologies have to be recognised and managed, not eliminated, according to "natural laws" – this happens with organisms in the soil and also applies to ideas, corporations being a striking example. They will appear, we must restrict their influence, protect ourselves from them in order to…progress.
Leibniz and Kepler made significant steps that we have altered with time, just as Malthus and Marx did.
Malthus was a move away from the idea that the world is our infinite domain that we can exploit without cost. He wasn't wrong. His specific predictions misjudged the point where doom finally overtakes technology (doom only has to pass once, tech needs to stay ahead all the time).
Marx moved away from the idea that individual responsibilities and choices and God's judgement were responsible for individual cases of poverty. He documented, thoroughly, that poverty and exploitation were inherent systemic features. His prediction was more hand-wavey, which makes lots of folks think it'll happen tomorrow, and gives them excuses for when today's attempt fails dismally.
But then neither Leibniz nor Kepler were the final words in their fields, were they?
Here's the thing: at the moment we're in a race between consumption (and the negative externalities like climate change or resource depletion that consumption causes) and the technological innovation to identify and fix our problems. And recent experience suggests a solid third of any given population are morons who could kill everyone through stupidity if given the chance.
I have a sense of unease about this situation.
What all of these historic figures have in common is an ability to diagnose at least part of the problem fairly well. I've revisited them partly because much of what they had to say was important at the time.
On the other hand in all cases their solutions in the social/political domain were pants. Why this should be is one of themes being explored in this series. At least one reason is that it's the job of the future to be dangerous; predictions are notoriously unreliable critters. But there are deeper reasons why; and I'd like to have a go at exploring this.
Your unease is entirely justified; I may be a pragmatic optimist, but I’m aware the odds of a happy outcome here are not especially good.
A happy outcome? Are we happy now? There is much that is wondrous in the world, but much too has been lost; is the experience of walking through native forest that is bereft of huia a less happy one that it might have been had we ensured their survival? I think it is. It might be that we'll have to settle for "determined" rather than "happy" as our best-bet state of mind in the times ahead.
Are we happy now?
Well if I lean on the old but reliable Maslow hierarchy of needs for a moment, 'happiness' (as opposed to abject misery) sits firmly on a foundation of meeting physical needs. In that respect this past decade has been quite remarkable.
Extreme poverty has been dramatically reduced, from 18 percent of the global population to just 8.6 percent. More than 158,000 people climbed out of extreme poverty every day for 10 years.
The child mortality rate was reduced by a third, saving the lives of more than 2.1 million children. Average global life expectancy grew from 69.5 years to 72.6 years. The death rate from indoor air pollution decreased by 19 percent, while deaths from climate-related natural disasters decreased by a third, to just 0.35 per 100,000 persons. The proportion of the population with access to electricity, meanwhile, jumped by over 10 percent, from 79.9 percent in 2010 to 90 percent in 2020.
These are building blocks essential to eliminating poverty; the left cannot argue against them without betraying it's very purpose. Of course Maslow also informs us that neither material prosperity, nor mere 'happiness' are sufficient by themselves, which is the domain I'm certain you're alluding to.
So, it's a numbers thing? If more people are happy, all is well? I guess though, with the human population being what it is, there are also more unhappy people on the planet than at any other time in history – yes?
I hear you, I'd suggest the numbers are necessary but are not sufficient in themselves to achieve what we're thinking of.
I must ask about the "Old Growth" societies you spoke of … it's my sense they would all be very low population density societies; similar to most pre-Industrial hunter gatherers. For much of our pre-agricultural evolution there were barely 10m humans on earth. Sometimes much less.
Such societies work to quite different constraints to the ones we're facing, and while they may have wisdom and insights well worth discussing; I'm not sure we can model our future on their past.
Is progress real?…first off you need to define 'progress'
Id suggest that although Malthus made the mistake of being definitive he will ultimately be proved correct….to argue otherwise is to suggest the bounty of the earth is limitless ….which it obviously is not.
Hi Pat – I'm going to disagree 🙂
I suspect the Universe is, by it's very nature, endlessly and limitlessly, generous and bounteous. I think presently, we are prising the eyes out of the stone statue we think is our due, but in fact, we're bedazzled by trinkets. The true "wealth" is inexhaustible, but we can barely glimpse it through our clouded lenses. Or something… 🙂
The universe may be….are you suggesting we import from other galaxies?…mot only is that currently impossible , it will likely always be impractical…..meanwhile?
Import? We always have: "space dust", meteors, meteorites, sunlight, starlight and waves of all manner and sorts. These "things" add to our wealth, constantly. It's interesting to speculate about what else might have alighted here following a lengthy voyage from afar – microbes comfortably survive deep space travel – our own probes are potentially infecting faraway places even as we discuss the possibility of life cruising the galaxies. Tardigrades do just fine in the challenging conditions of space; who knows what else is winging its way earthward? 🙂
We consider the world through substantially different prisms i fear Robert, which makes for problematic discussion.
We either have a world of limited resource or we do not…imagination doth butter no parsnips
Some resources are limited, others are not; perhaps we should be exploring the adoption of those that are limitless?
That's my argument.
Then I pose the same question to you that I posed to Red…what do you consider is the sustainable (human) stocking rate of this planet?
I imagine that's a fluid figure, dependent upon a number of constraints/resources/circumstances. The planet seems to have developed systems for modulating/governing populations of all other organisms living here and I expect it's applying it's experience to us. Given our "wild-card" factor; our big-brain intelligence and desire to confound the boundaries, it's probably impossible to put a figure to your question. There are bound to be limits to growth, but those are no longer what they might have seemed a century ago, imo. Food seems to be a limiting factor, and present methods of growing/raising it are disturbingly threatening to the health of the biosphere, but if a simple vat-produced, protein-based goop was made readily available, that constraint would be changed significantly (to be replaced by the restraint of the damaging effects of human waste, but if that was mastered and humanure became a valuable resource, then the situation might be different again. It could be argued that we are already way over capacity, but curiously enough, the planet hasn't collapsed as a result.
I would suggest that nature did exactly that…pre industrial revolution , and the capacity was below 1 billion.
We may take some premium from our "intellect"which I would suggest at best may allow perhaps a doubling, so 2 billion….for as you note there is waste and room for other species to consider, not just calories…for without the 'others' (species) we cannot exist, as much as we may tell ourselves we can
I don't think the industrial revolution altered the way nature operates; She's still following the same patterns She always has. I do think though, that we're cruising' for a bruising', though if we were to take advice from species that have been here a lot longer than us, we might learn something to our (mutual) advantage.
The industrial revolution may not have altered the way 'nature operates' but it certainly altered the way we interact with the natural environment
but it certainly altered the way we interact with the natural environment
Actually that's a very good point and one well worth expanding on.
Modern urban humans certainly have an outsized impact in terms of CO2 and mineral resource use, yet in terms of land area they're far less intensive than their rural subsistence farming cousins. And people who rely on firewood and dung for fuel may have no CO2 footprint, but their impact on natural environments in terms of deforestation and habitat loss is very significant.
Malthus was proven wrong on both sides of his argument; it turns out that neither human population was going to grow without limit, nor is our ability to innovate and discover new resources obviously limited either.
And even in his own time this should have been obvious; but apocalyptic thinking has a long track record of seducing otherwise sensible people.
Then you misread Malthus….suggest you revisit
Make your case here, don't make me do your homework for you.
What do you consider the (human) carrying capacity of the planet ?
At present we produce around 25% more food than we can eat. (Much of the surplus going rather pointlessly into bio-fuels.) So that isn't the constraint.
CO2 is the other urgent limit, but then dealing to this is just a matter of technical choices.
Various mineral resources and environmental sinks, along with land use and oceanic pollution and threatened bio-diversity are also probable limits. Yet each of these do have technically feasible solutions.
Or another way to look at this; pre-agricultural humans seemed to have a carrying capacity of maybe 100m (although life was so precarious they never got past 10m), pre-industrial humans around 1b, and fossil fuels have gotten us comfortably to around 10b … each a carrying capacity increase of 10 fold. On what basis are you going to rule out the possibility us repeating the same astonishing feat?
"…And with not too many immediate concerns about what tomorrow will bring."
Id suggest that is a egocentric view not shared by by the majority of the worlds inhabitants and increasingly even those in first world nations
Id suggest that is a egocentric view not shared by by the majority of the worlds inhabitants
Compared to what? All the data I've repeatedly presented shows that the large majority of people living now have far fewer immediate concerns than did their ancestors who lived 200 years ago. This doesn't mean the world is trouble free, far from it, but if you are over the age of 40, consider yourself fortunate to be alive and well enough in this modern era to have the luxury of worrying about climate change.
"… and fossil fuels have gotten us comfortably to around 10b …"
Comfortably?…we are destroying our only home.
The industrial revolution began a mere 10 or so generations ago, a blink of an eye and in that short time we have bought the planet to the brink of uninhabitability for our species…as Malthus predicted we have grown our population to the point of collapse…and collapse it will.
Or you can make the case for how 10 plus billion humans will inhabit this planet without destroying it…and unknowns and unprovens are not an option because human beings dont survive more than a few weeks without food.
we are destroying our only home.
Apocalyptic thinking is wrong. Yes we face real and urgent limits, but they are not beyond our wit to confront.
Apparently it is,,,and has been for 50 years .
Blind optimism in 'human capacity' is our biggest handicap and is downright dangerous…emphasis on the'blind'
Blind optimism in 'human capacity' is our biggest handicap and is downright dangerous.
Yet this same 'dangerous' capacity has enabled you write this out in a magical typing machine, from the comfort of a warm dry home with a full stomach. And with not too many immediate concerns about what tomorrow will bring.
Maybe that's the problem; our ancient psyche needs something to worry about.
What constraints are we working to?
Hasn't it always been, self-restraint?
I do believe we have reached somewhere close to the innovation limits of fossil fuels. While the atmospheric CO2 limit is real and urgent, perhaps it's not the most important. There is a good argument that the very pace of technology itself has in many ways slowed down, that two hundred years of dramatic innovation has finally flattened out in the past decade.
There is of course an immense amount of research and many promising ideas being pursued, but there is a real sense of diminishing returns about it all. Fossil fuels have been wonderful, but quite inexorably their EROI is diminishing. This makes sense when you think of technology as essentially 'applied energy'; viewed like this limits on energy inevitably become limits on technology.
(The counter idea that we could develop a high tech, low energy density society is an intriguing, appealing idea, but sadly one with no obvious precedent. On reflection I think I may explore this in a future post.)
I think it's our imaginations that are constrained and we are feeling the pinch.
Yes; more than anything else modernism has been an intensely materialistic enterprise. And the very definition of materialism is the inability to imagine the invisible realities.
Indeed. There is, however, an awful lot of imagining invisible realities going on now – at least, along the paths I stumble 🙂
"Old Growth" societies do not view imagination in the way we do – as something frivolous and inconsequential. Rather, they see it as a powerful thinking "implement" that brings tangible results and is to be regarded most highly. Einstein, Fukuoka and others commented similarly.
The abject failure of the marxist projects in Russia and China demoralised the anti-capitalists,
Not really, no. Neither of those totalitarian regimes pursued a left agenda with any particular rigour. It's fair to say that the Okhrana had more influence on either state than Marx, for all that his prescription was full of inconsistencies. It sure demoralized the NZ Labour Party though – their great leap into vapid far-right bullshit coinciding with the last gasp of soviet despotism – almost as if their late-Stalinist God had just failed them too.
As for progress, it happens, but not neatly, and certainly not by measures as crude as GDP growth. Consider the laser – the dreamt of future blasting weapon of the 1950s gradually migrated into crude industrial cutters, eventually becoming part of the ubiquitous storage and retrieval of contemporary computers. It takes half a century or more for each technology to begin to find a place, much less a sustainable or benign place, in an evolving society, and often the potential of such technologies is subverted by monied interests.
Post-Modernism only really muddied the waters, it was hardly news that reigning narratives enjoyed no monopoly on truth. But pomos stymy the arrival of the long overdue new synthesis. Hutcheson (and Kant) reckoned that things like truth or justice were determinable by humans, and that is was important to try. The pomos take that game off the table. The triumph of neo-liberalism is a pomo outcome – ceasing to strive for truth and justice, our political leaders, like the corrupt Roman elites before them, only care about their investment portfolios. Thus our culture has lost its way, and worse, considers that no way is possible. It is not a belief conducive to progress.
In 2001 I had the remarkable privilege of visiting not only the location where the Czar and his family were first imprisoned and then shot, but also more intriguingly the location inside Russia where the first Communists met to plot their revolution. It's a small rocky hill maybe 120m high with a natural amphitheatre (like a volcanic crater but it's not) at the summit. It was in those times far enough from the city and naturally private so that it was a good place for Sverdlovsk and his comrades to conspire. And we know he was in direct contact with Marx and Engels … the people who ran the October Revolution knew exactly whose ideas they were following.
We also know from Solzhenitsyn that the internal purges and political authoritarianism was baked in from the very start. Stalin merely expanded on the precedent. The Terror was not of course what Marx had intended, he assumed that once the working class had obtained power that all social antagonisms and exploitation would magically end; and in this he was proven dramatically wrong. The very revolution necessary to implement his social order ensured the most ruthless and cruel would obtain all political power. Every single time.
I do agree on your point about the necessary maturing process for technology; inevitably it's easier to find destructive purposes for new energy forms than constructive ones. But as you say time tends to favour the latter.
And also I agree on your take on neo-liberalism … one of what I'm going to class as the three great extremist materialist mistakes of the 20th century, marxism, fascism and neo-liberalism.
I assume you mean Yakov Sverdlov. Seeing as he was born the 2 years after Marx's death and was only 10 when Engels died I'm not sure how we know of this 'direct contact'.
I was relying on a 20yr old remembered conversation with the person who took me to the spot. Obviously Sverdlov was not in direct personal contact, but the evidence is that he was a very close student of Marx and all the pre-revolutionary intellectuals.
Given his very prominent role in the Revolution and that he's regarded perhaps the first head of the Soviet state, his role and connection to Marx really can't be discounted.
he was a very close student of Marx
And Lenin.
Who was far more salient influence on the development of the Soviet states seeing as he was a direct participant in both the revolution and the leadership of the USSR.
And we know he was in direct contact with Marx and Engels
Marx died in 1883. [RL: Deleted. No more warnings.]
Ah crap memory. Sverdlov did indeed live after Marx, but is absolutely on record as being a direct disciple of Marx.
He's also the instigator of the infamous kulak policy that later directly led to the Ukrainian famine.
One would think the outcomes of the October revolution and the Soviet state were more attributable to Lenin's (and later Stalin's) ideas than Sverdlov being 'direct disciple of Marx'.
[RL: Take a break from this thread. You’ve had your warning.]
Nope.
When looking at the specifics of a transition from capitalism to communism, Marx included that there would be a transition period (dictatorship of the proletariat) but that the transition might not succeed the first time and the DoP would slide back into a capitalist or feudal power structure – same exploitation, new people up top.
So in a way he predicted exactly what would happen, but it's also the fudge that makes his predictions irrefutable. Like every messiah is the second coming until it turns out no, that guy was a fraud, this new guy is actually the second coming. There's a boolean outcome with no context to assess how the prediction is coming along (although messiahs need to conform with prophecies that are canon – that's why Luke has Jesus being born back in Bethlehem, cynics suggest).
Some time back I outlined the four fundamental premises of Marxist thinking:
1. The idea that the elites would always oppress the working masses
2. The false consciousness which ensured anyone who benefited from this exploitation would find a way to justify perpetuating the system
3. The dictatorship of the proletariat, which if you read the link you provided clearly anticipates the need to violently overthrow the existing order
4. And once this had been done ruthlessly and frequently enough, somehow quite magically all class antagonisms would disappear and a new utopian workers paradise would make all the prior suffering justified.
OK so that's a big simplification, but it more or less covers the process off.
May I suggest some holiday reading? Marxists.org has works by a wide variety of writers available to read online, 720 writers in fact! In 62 languages! All for free товарищ!
Again if you have a point to make, make it here. Don't demand I go away and do your homework for you.
I'm perfectly aware the above four points are a simplification and there many dusty tomes of marxist thinking they leave untouched. Yet in many ways the essence of the ideology is quite simple.
Or as the first toast of the evening almost always was: К свободе
I am not demanding anything. Nor do I have 'homework' that requires your assistance. Seeing as you seem to be relying on misremembered 20 year old conversations I was pointing out a place where one could read the actual writings of Marx and other thinkers instead of your particular interpretation and simplification.
3 ignores the allowances Marx made that violent revolution might not always be required. From the reference 22 of the comment to that effect in the wiki link I provided:
4 is just a stupid misrepresentation. There's enough woo in his predictions (and outright hypocrisy in his character) to oppose Marx without making shit up.
And I'm not sure how often Marx made toasts in Russian.
Like arkie you've every right to object to my very simplified marxist schema, but what you haven't done is demonstrate where it is wrong. The first two points may be crudely drawn, but seem accurate enough.
The third was really confirmed by your own reference, and while a 'peaceful marxist' revolution may be theoretically possible, no such thing ever spontaneously occurred in practice.
And yes my description of the end goal of 'glorious revolution' may be pointed and somewhat sarcastic; but then the gap between the proposed ideal of communism and the stack of corpses it managed to pile up in the 20th century does rather invite it don't you think?
but what you haven't done is demonstrate where it is wrong
Now Red, wouldn't that be 'doing your homework for you'?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marxism
If you want a constructive response then address a point in the OP or comment thread directly. Lazy open-ended requests to go away and read entire tomes from prior centuries that few people read, or some unspecified selection from 720 writers on a website will be treated with the chilly response they deserve.
Yes your quoted para above is fancy way to describe marxism, but I'm not sure how it addresses the simple four point schema I outlined above. Does Marx not talk about 'the oppression of the workers', 'false consciousness', and the 'dictatorship of the proletariat'? Did he not advocate for the elimination of private property and the state ownership of 'the means of production'? As far as I'm aware these are all well understood features of communism.
Pretending they aren't 'real marxism' and that I have to spend months reading up on 'what Marx really meant' seems to me an evasive shifting of the goalposts to say the least.
Marx said a lot of things, some contradicted others. Famously remarking 'what is certain is that I myself am not a Marxist'.
I'm not pretending, evading, or shifting goalposts, I offered you Marxists.org as a way to actually read Marx and see the huge variety of Marxist-aligned thinking. I quoted the first para of the Marxism wiki page to show how relevant to the OP the work of Marx and Engels actually is. Your hostility to engaging with the actual work and over-simplification nay misrepresentation of it betrays a bias that prevents productive discussion.
Yes I am entirely biased against marxism. And equally so against neo-liberalism and fascism.
The reason is relatively simple; all three represent an otherwise legitimate political idea, that unmoored by materialism from ethical constraint, go too damn far.
Then we shall leave it at that, seeing as you are so determined to maintain your fallacious opinions.
1 is blatantly true: elites always oppress those underneath them.
2 is to some degree represented by you believing your phrasing of 4 is at all realistic.
My link clearly showed that Marx did not believe violent revolution would be needed in every country. So 3 is (at best) misleadingly imprecise.
And as for "don't you think", no, I don't think that. For the basic reason that many of the "communist" movements in the 20C had as much to do with Marx as the crusades had to do with Jesus.