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Joyce and English now laughing stock

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 6th, 2017 - 148 comments
Categories: accountability, bill english, economy, election 2017, making shit up, national, Steven Joyce - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Post John Key all National ever had going for it was an undeserved reputation for financial competence. Now that is gone too. It doesn’t get any worse than this 3 weeks out from an election.

Politically Correct: The deadly serious numbers game

National’s so-called bombshell about Labour’s “$11.7 billion fiscal hole” has turned into a big fiscal joke with absolutely everyone in agreement that the hole does not exist.

National’s claim that Labour forgot to pay for $11.7b worth of stuff is just plain wrong. You will remember that Finance Minister Steven Joyce called a press conference on Monday to fact shame Labour over its shoddy accounting. But now the expert verdicts are in it’s Joyce who’s got egg on his face.

Who said?

Stuff‘s Vernon Small, commentator Patrick Smellie, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie, economist Shamubeel Eaqub, The New Zealand Initiative’s Sam Warburton, Newsroom‘s Bernard Hickey, NZ Herald columnist Brian Fallow and Berl’s Ganesh Nana to name a few.

Corin Dann: ‘He is looking very alone tonight’ – five leading economists dismiss Steven Joyce’s claim Labour has $11.7 billion hole in fiscal plan

National Party finance spokesman Steven Joyce’s claim yesterday that Labour’s spending plan has a $11.7 billion hole in it has been dismissed by a number of New Zealand’s top economists.

National’s fiscal claims ‘pure fiction’ – economists

National campaign manager Steven Joyce is doubling down on his attack on Labour’s alternative budget, despite a series of economists saying he’s wrong.

But experts said today National had made an error and did not read Labour’s policy properly.

BERL, an independent company Labour employed to check its books, stood by its work. Chief executive Ganesh Nana said Mr Joyce was categorically wrong.

“It’s just pure fiction, based on disagreement over definitions. Nerds like me love it, but I wouldn’t expect voters to be at all interested in what an operating allowance is. I would expect voters to be more interested in where is the spending happening, and is that spending actually worthwhile?”

The New Zealand Initiative – a libertarian think tank – said National appeared to have made a basic accounting error in its criticism.

Research fellow Sam Warburton said it looked like Mr Joyce had zeroed in on one line in Labour’s plan and ignored 16 other lines.

“When you take one part of the equation and don’t include the other part … you’re going to get the wrong answer.

Desperate and dangerous times on the campaign trail

…Finance Minister Steven Joyce made the big bald statement that Labour had made an $11.7 billion dollar blunder with its spending promises.

Except it hasn’t. The $11.7 billion claim has quickly unravelled as a string of economists and financial commentators said Joyce got it wrong.

By the time a frazzled media pack had time to pick apart Joyce’s numbers, however, some of the mud is bound to have stuck.

So Is this our post-truth politics moment? Or was Joyce being disingenuous? Or was it just the usual election campaign spin?

And National is something it wasn’t a month ago – and that’s desperate.Till now, it’s ministers had never seriously contemplated losing the power and perks of office.

Economist consensus – there’s no $11.7b hole in Labour’s budget

Here’s what the economists say:

Dr Ganesh Nana, BERL Executive Director, says the numbers make sense and the “alleged hole is a fiction arising from a disagreement over definitions”.

Verdict: There is no hole

ANZ Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie

“There’s no hole. But they don’t have a lot of money to play with in the 2019 and 2020 budgets. They’ve basically computed up front to what they are going to do for three years. That’s fine but the wheels of government still need to turn and be funded.”

Verdict: There is no hole

Bernard Hickey, Newsroom Pro economics journalist

“There is no hole in Labour’s fiscal plan. It’s just a political argument about cost inflation and spending priorities.”

Verdict: There is no hole

Former NZIER economist Shamubeel Eaqub: There isn’t an $11.7b hole from what I can see.”

Verdict: There is no hole

Keith Ng, Public Address/Spinoff economics and data journalist: “There is no missing money. The money is accounted for. I suspect there’s some shenanigans around why Labour did it this way (to make the health/education/etc lines look bigger, basically), but it’s literally a question of whether you put the numbers on row 239 or row 228 in the spreadsheet.”

Verdict: There is no hole

Sam Warburton, Research Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative:

“National appears to have looked at one line (the “operating allowance”) in Labour’s budget without looking at the other 16 lines in the Budget. If they had, they would have seen extra money has been allocated to those lines such as Health, Education, Social Welfare and Housing.

“It looks like National’s mistake came from only looking at the operating allowance and expecting to see a greater amount of flexibility for future expenditure, eg inflation. Labour has effectively said ‘we’ll book in some of that future expenditure now’. Whether providing that certainty to Health and Education now is best or keeping things more flexible in case of unknown future demand or events is best is a judgement call. But there is no $12 billion hole.”

Verdict: There is no $11.7b hole

Mac McKenna, Taxpayers Union economist, says the lobby group has found National is partially correct.

Verdict: There is a hole, just might not be $11.7b

Dr Vernon Small, Fairfax Political Reporter

“What we have here is a small unallocated spending pot and poor word choice by Labour and a huge over-reach for a political hit by National”.

Verdict: There is no hole

Brian Fallow, Economic Columnist, NZ Herald

“In terms of the argument, Robertson is right, and Joyce is wrong. […]The money isn’t missing”, he said on RNZ.

Verdict: There is no hole

https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/904950579977347077

https://twitter.com/andykirton/status/904949857269334018

148 comments on “Joyce and English now laughing stock ”

  1. Ross 1

    Let’s face it, an honourable person would acknowledge their mistake and apologise. Joyce has not apologised and seems to have no intention of doing so. We should conclude that he isn’t honourable and – given the size and timing of his blunder – is possibly not fit for office.

  2. Cinny 2

    How many economics papers did Joyce complete or pass at university? Turns out that he withdrew from 8 papers and failed one. Least that’s what Garner just said this morning, he’s about to interview Joyce.

  3. Cinny 3

    Gower now on tv3 saying Joyce is WRONG, and public need to stop looking at him as the finance minister and start looking at him as the national party campaign manager, a person that will do ANYTHING to stay in power.

    Joyce about to be interviewed on tvnz

  4. Incognito 4

    This just reiterates to what lengths National will go to stay in power. Remember where DP-HQ was … I cannot respect people that have and show no respect for other people and I certainly don’t want them to ‘represent’ me in Parliament or on the ‘world stage’ for that matter.

  5. don 5

    there are going to be a lot of dissapointed lefties on this blog after the vote .
    TWO TICKS BLUE,,,,,,

  6. Pat 6

    now what was Bill English’s answer to the PG question …can you succeed in politics without lying?

  7. Cinny 7

    Hilary Barry is going to town on Joyce, good on her now that’s journalism. Joyce is still trying it on. Now Jack Tame is joining in, excellent questioning by these two. Do hope there will be a FULL link for this interview later.

    Joyce trying to use a few lines of an article from the dominion to help with his lying, trouble was, Jack Tame had read the full article which said that Joyce was wrong.

    Really impressed with Hils and Jack, good work you two

  8. Robert Guyton 8

    The Southland Times cartoonist, Mark Winter, shows us exactly where Joyce’s hole is.

  9. tsmithfield 9

    I think you underestimate the effects of Joyce’s comments.

    The economists I have heard on the radio, including Cameron Bagrie, have been saying that although the numbers add up, on the basis of those numbers, it is going to be very difficult to find extra spending in budgets going forward, as governments are prone to do.

    So, Joyce has flown a kite and got a discussion going on how achievable Labour’s budget is in reality. That may be more damaging for Labour in the long run than Joyce’s initial comment.

    Perhaps that was his aim all along.

    • Robert Guyton 9.1

      tsmithfield thinks he’s found a tiny gold nugget in a huge, steaming pile of horse manure!

      • tsmithfield 9.1.1

        Maybe, but the gold nugget is worth a lot more than the horse manure.

        • Ross 9.1.1.1

          TS

          You of course have made no allowance for a change in govt revenue, which tends to go up over time. The economy is unlikely to remain static for 3 years!

          • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1.1

            Economies can go backwards as well as forwards. Why would you assume constant growth? Ask dairy farmers about that. So, increasing income isn’t a given.

            Also, what about contingency for another major natural disaster such as an earthquake?

            • Pat 9.1.1.1.1.1

              and how did National deal with that?…they borrowed, they increased tax, they deferred spending and they changed regulation governing effected industries…all options available to any government.

              • Johan

                …and a massive overseas insurance pay out.

              • Kevin

                It was Nationals deferred spending that created the problems in the first place as they compound over time.

                Back when they thought they could run the economy like a household.

                • Pat

                  the changed regulation is going to bite us on the arse as well….but hey, National are awesome economic managers don’t you know?

            • tracey 9.1.1.1.1.2

              You realise with all of National’s recent lolly scrambles they are in a very similar position?

        • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.1.2

          The ‘nugget’ is the annihilation of Joyce’s facade of competence.

        • Adrian 9.1.1.3

          It’s an undigested tiny bit of diced carrot, albeit covered in shit.

      • The decrypter 9.1.2

        Golden rivet is what tsmithfield has found.

    • Pat 9.2

      as is Nationals budget….all budget forecasts assume the projected conditions will occur and are adjusted to suit circumstances as they change (by one means or another)

    • Ross 9.3

      You might be right. Then again I am sure National would rather be discussing something other than what a prize prick Joyce is.

    • mickysavage 9.4

      Do you accept that Joyce was fibbing when he said there was a $11.7b hole in Labour’s budget?

    • DentArthurDent 9.5

      I do vote National (and intend to do so again) however while it may be more damaging in the long run I doubt it was Joyces intention, more like a lucky break

      • tracey 9.5.1

        LOLOLOLOLOLOL

        • DentArthurDent 9.5.1.1

          You think it was his intention all along? Fair enough

          • crashcart 9.5.1.1.1

            I think Tracey is laughing at the fact that Joyce can have the entire MSN questioning his economic ability and you call that a Lucky break.

            I guess it is that sort of separation from reality that allows you to know what has happened and still think to your self that National are more reliable on the economy. Even when all historical data shows that labour have always been more successful.

          • tracey 9.5.1.1.2

            Joyce is their master strategis. Are you now saying he is no good at maths or strategy? You need to look beneath the surface more. Joyce was the mastermind behind Key. Key was the honed public image.

    • Ffloyd 9.6

      Ialso read that National has exactly the same problem. Money will be tight to implement their spending as well. Can’t remember where I read it but one of the newspapers.
      Saw Joyce on TVNZ this morning. I thought Hillary was going to deck him. Does the man have no shame at all.
      All that deliberate lying while smiling does him no credit at all.

    • tracey 9.7

      I agree. Audrey Young has tried to help out today. Of course tomorrow she will have an article analysing how much money National has left after all its spending promises

  10. greywarshark 10

    Joyless says he doesn’t need to have an analysis of his economics from a panel of disinterested economists, he has his team and he trusts them. On Radionz to Guyon this a.m.

    Trusts them to do what they are paid to do as handpicked skew-minded RW followers who know how to turn a figure or two.

  11. Cinny 11

    Thanks for posting the full interview TVNZ.. here’s the link

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-defiant-steven-joyce-butts-heads-hilary-barry-over-labours-fiscal-plan-accuses-labour-changing-their-story

    “Mr Joyce went on to accuse several of New Zealand’s premier economists with decades of combined experience of being either politically biased or having their numbers “around the wrong way” and said “everybody has a view”.

    • ianmac 11.1

      Thanks Cinny. I have never used the expression gob-smacked but I am now!
      Joyce says, “I helped Labour out by correcting their mistake for them.”
      Gee thanks mate.

  12. tsmithfield 12

    What Joyce is using is a classical “door in the face” technique/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door-in-the-face_technique

    He has made a big claim that has got the discussion about Labour’s budget being discussed in the media. While economists are dismissing that initial claim, they are also acknowledging their are problems in the Labour budget in terms of affordability going forward.

    This was the real aim of Joyce’s approach I suspect. If he hadn’t made an outrageous claim to begin with, there probably would not have been the same degree of media interest.

    • tsmithfield 12.1

      Here is the sort of comment that Joyce has been fishing for:

      http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition/opinion/rachel-smalley-whats-influencing-your-vote/

      According to Cameron Bagrie:

      Look they’ve been transparent, yeah that’s wonderful. We know what we’re going to get, but there’s not a lot of money left in the kitty jar for the 2019 and 2020 budgets. Things are going to be incredibly tight because they’ve detailed very strong packages in the likes of health, and if you look at what’s left, there’s basically nothing left over for your law and order and other core government services.

      National can now use quotes like this to switch the line of attack by pointing to quotes from economists who state that it is going to be incredibly difficult to factor in additional spending in future budgets with the implication that Labour will have to increase taxes.

      • mickysavage 12.1.1

        Do you support politicians lying to us?

        • tsmithfield 12.1.1.1

          I’m not saying anything about that. I am just talking about the strategy.

          The problem for Labour now is that if they appeal to the economists as an authority for saying that National is wrong about the funding gap, it is very difficult for Labour to claim those same experts are wrong when it comes to comments those same economists make about likely problems with Labour’s budget going forward.

          Personally, I think it is a very cunning strategy by National, and that they are playing the long game on this.

          • Robert Guyton 12.1.1.1.1

            “I’m not saying anything about that.”
            Why not? You were asked directly.
            Do you support politicians lying to us, tsmithfield?

            • tsmithfield 12.1.1.1.1.1

              I expect politicians to lie to us.

              The reason I am not saying anything about it is that it wasn’t anything to do with the argument I am making.

              • Robert Guyton

                Your expectations are sad and low. I expect the politicians I support not to lie, especially in the way we are seeing here; simply for the sake of casting opponents into difficulty. It’s a cynical, despicable ploy and those who “don’t mind it” aren’t to be admired, in my view. In fact, I tend to dismiss their views, knowing that they are not bovvered by lies. Kinda negates their desire to be taken seriously, I reckon. Btw, if you come to a left wing site and make an “argument” you should expect to have to address arguments that are put to you there, as a matter of courtesy; the same courtesy that’s shown by those allowing you to comment here.

                • tsmithfield

                  Asking a question isn’t an argument.

                  If it doesn’t relate to the points I was making in the first place, I am under no obligation to answer it.

                  If you want to make that point yourself, then start a thread on it, and I will comment on it if I want to.

                  • Robert Guyton

                    It’s all good, tsmithfield – all I wanted was to see the cut of your jib re.lying and you kindly provided your view. It’s a sad one, as is your insistence that Joyce’s “door in the face” strategy is clever, but seeming to miss the obvious failing that it has; the public humiliation he’s received for lying and failing to understand financial matters, which, as Finance Minister…

                    • tsmithfield

                      Any public humiliation he has received will dissipate fairly quickly, but the inconvenient quotes from economists as pointed out above are permanent features unfortunately for Labour.

                      So far as lying goes, do you think that Jacinda is being entirely truthful when she fudges about the taxes to be considered by the working group after the election?

                      When I was in France recently, our tour guide told us that people their expect that their politicians are corrupt, and that they prefer to see some corruption so long as it isn’t too bad. If politicians appear squeaky clean, they believe that their politicians are covering something really serious.

                      So, a cynical view is justified I believe. I think politicians are like the rest of us who from time to time distort the truth when it suits us. Sometimes it is deliberate lying. Othertimes, willful ignorance.

                      Is that a good thing? Obviously not. But it is human nature that we are all susceptible to unfortunately.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      “Any public humiliation he has received will dissipate fairly quickly”
                      Seems you don’t understand “public humiliation”, tsmithfield and it wasn’t “any”, it was and is, considerable; he’s the Finance Minister, for goodness sakes! Bill English has plunged down with him as well – what a pair of duffers – HUGE HOLE indeed! The public aren’t splitting hairs, as you are, they’re looking at the cartoons, snippets of commentry on THE NEWS and getting the message that Joyce (and English) lied to try to trip lovely Jacinda on the telly, and are now digging in, clasping the lie to their blue-rosetted bosoms, to try to make Labour (Jacinda’s Party) look bad.
                      Bad optics, Mr Joyce. Very bad optics.

                    • tsmithfield

                      Wait for this to be spun in the debates for instance:

                      Interviewer:

                      Every economist we have spoken to disagrees with the 11 billion dollar hole you pointed to:

                      Answer from English:

                      No, they don’t entirely disagree. For instance here is a quote from ANZ economist Cameron Bagrie:

                      Look they’ve been transparent, yeah that’s wonderful. We know what we’re going to get, but there’s not a lot of money left in the kitty jar for the 2019 and 2020 budgets. Things are going to be incredibly tight because they’ve detailed very strong packages in the likes of health, and if you look at what’s left, there’s basically nothing left over for your law and order and other core government services.

                      National will probably argue that the hole is there in effect because there is insufficient contingency for future spending. So, while the numbers may add up they don’t work in reality.

                      They will be able to use quotes like above to make that point. It will be difficult for Labour to refute because they have given considerable authority to those experts themselves.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      The viewing, voting public won’t care for Mr English’s financial explanations (explaining is losing). They’ll only remember that Joyce lied – something about a HUGE HOLE that didn’t exist. Goodbye Bill.

                    • tsmithfield

                      I guess this is something we will have to disagree on.

                      Time will tell.

                • eco Maori/kiwi

                  +100 Robert Guyton we need leader we can trust not to lie to us just to get votes. They set the standard for us and our youth but we no the neo liberals will lie. So we now no not to TRUST these people. We need to make policy’s to stop this bad behavior.

          • The Unliving 12.1.1.1.2

            Personally, I think it is a very cunning strategy by National, and that they are playing the long game on this.

            It would have been a lot more cunning if he hadn’t ended up looking like a complete ignoramus.

          • greywarshark 12.1.1.1.3

            I think you have provided us with a very cool and objective point of view tsmithfield. And for that I thank you. It is the first time that I have read something from you so reasoned and helpful. Keep it up.

            • ianmac 12.1.1.1.3.1

              Yes greywarshatk. I was considering tsmithfield’s case and I suspect that he might be right. Bluddy Joyce has crashed the scene with an outrageous claim so that he can be heard as he denigrates Labour plans. His grinning defiance of Hilary this morning is his “win” as it becomes his platform for claiming later today that Labour’s plan will increase mortgage costs. Guess what the general public hear!
              Sad but maybe true. False truths work?

          • McFlock 12.1.1.1.4

            After nine years of National’s brighter future, lots of people understand that it’s possible to live within a tight budget.

            Not many people understand how a minister of finance can miscount to the tune of $11B dollars.

          • ianmac 12.1.1.1.5

            I think that you are right about the Joyce strategy tsm. A huge gamble but it does allow the other doubts to be said and listened to such as today’s “Labour will cause mortgages to rise.” Not sure how it will affect the vote though. (My comments at 1:34pm)

        • Enough is Enough 12.1.1.2

          Expect this strategy to continue for the next two weeks.

          The Nats will scream as loud as they can that there will only be increased spending if there are massive tax increases.

          We need to be prepared for this line of attack.

          (Personally I think we should be a lot bolder and say yes, the rich 1% will be a taxed a lot more for the society that they have taken advantage of)

      • r0b 12.1.2

        The Black Knight always triumphs!

      • left_forward 12.1.3

        Will voters be deceived by the bullshitting Gnatz yet again?

      • tracey 12.1.4

        It would have been sticking in his craw to admit Joyce was wrong so he found a way to help him. Now we await his analysis of the Joyce/English lolly scramble, up to and including the miracle to be performed by April next year of lifting 50000 children out of poverty. Mind you with Joyces head for numbers I suspect it will just involve a crayon and a column in a spreadsheet

        • left_forward 12.1.4.1

          The column in a spreadsheet is a little generous,
          Excellent point about the hastily promised miracle to save 50,000 children – but of course it will not be based on evidence, but the smoke and mirrors of the old trickle down theory.

        • Augustus 12.1.4.2

          Given that the policy setting that got 50,000 children into poverty are unchanged, it is reasonable to assume that those lifted out of poverty will soon be replaced by 50,000 others flung into it. How will we tell the difference?

    • McFlock 12.2

      What a load of shit.

      That technique isn’t about big “claims”, it’s about a big request that you back away from in order to encourage a reciprocal cimpromise from the other party.

      It’s not even a dead cat – that’s to distract from an awful story about you.

      At best Joyce made shit up, confident he’d get away with it. At worst, he fucked up to the tune of $11B and is trying to distract everyone from that. Unfortunately for him, Labour’s learned and their figures are robust.

      Joyce is an incompetent, lying piece of shit, and one of those has been illustrated by his $11B fuckup.

      • AB 12.2.1

        Joyce believed he had the media in his pocket like the last 3 elections and therefore thought that he could get away with it. It will be a bit of a shock to him to find that they are not entirely in his pocket.
        Certainly the journalists faithful to National will try to make something out of what Bagrie said – you could just hear how desperate Bagrie was to help Joyce out, but couldn’t do so unequivocally without trashing his own reputation.

        And my pick is that if Little had still been leader, Joyce wouldn’t have got anything like as much pushback. And if Cunliffe had been leader, they’d be taking Joyce’s side. The change is something to do with the media having approved Jacinda as ‘acceptable’ – not overtly, but somewhere in the dim recesses of their own minds.

        • McFlock 12.2.1.1

          Part of it’s third-term-itis: the nats are as tired as Labour was in 2008.

          Also, the media do have to look at their ratings and advertising revenue every so often: yes, the coroporates will run a line, but at the end of the day it’s every corporation for itself, and if the people aren’t buying the same bullshit no more…

        • Stuart Munro 12.2.1.2

          Sadly I think you’re right. Good that it’s changing, but the Key years were when reporters turned into repeaters. No critical thinking or natural justice. So Joyce has sworn that black is white – always worked for him before. But suddenly he’s treading air like Wile E Coyote.

      • greywarshark 12.2.2

        McFlock
        I think you have summed up the situation as per Joyless and his kanights and brave (Sir) Bill quite well. If he gets back in, as he is as hard to get rid of as The Black Knight, he will probably be given a kanighthood in the old Brit tradition of honouring a tragic failure.

        Joyce and English might have been praised in the poem by AAMilne
        The Knight Whose Armour Didn’t Squeak
        Of all the Knights in Appledore
        The wisest was Sir Thomas Tom
        He multiplied as far as four
        And knew what nine was taken from
        To make eleven. He could write
        A letter to another Knight
        https://allpoetry.com/The-Knight-Whose-Armour-Didn%27t-Squeak

        Yet are English and Joyce better drawn in Bad Sir Brian Botany, another of AAMilne’s fine pomes.
        https://preferreading.wordpress.com/category/a-a-milne/

        Sir [Bill] had a pair of boots with great big spurs on;.
        A fighting pair of which he was particularly fond.
        On Tuesday and on Friday,
        Just to make the street look tidy,
        He’d collect the passing villagers and kick them in the pond.

        and

        KrisBlueNZ gives a great NZ style poetry reading of Sir Brian Botany. Try reading this as a restful break to the constant political chatter.

  13. Imodium 13

    I have just consulted my own Tax Working Group and it appears Steven Joyce is correct

    • left_forward 13.1

      Consulting your faeces will give you a much more accurate assessment of your condition.

      • SpaceMonkey 13.1.1

        I consulted Steven Joyce’s and concluded that he had produced a load of sh*t!

      • greywarshark 13.1.2

        left behind
        I don’t think you understand the possibilities of irony. It’s much more subtle than talking about shit, though that’s good honest material for use at times. What did the protesters rub on Nick Smith – has it been revealed yet by his drycleaner? /sarc

        • left_forward 13.1.2.1

          Yes grey scale, I did indeed contemplate the possibility of being left behind after I wrote this – just too subtle for me perhaps! Sincere apologies Imodium.

  14. NZJester 14

    Mac McKenna, Taxpayers Union economist, says the lobby group has found National is partially correct.
    Verdict: There is a hole, just might not be $11.7b

    Only ones to support him partially are the right-wing group the Taxpayers Union.
    But they are saying there is a hole just not that big without committing to a number. Why can they not quote a number? Mabe because there is no hole and they want to continue the lie, but find it easier to do without a fixed number to be pinned on them, like the $11.7b lie pinned on Joyce.

  15. tracey 15

    Grant Robertson needs to get some economists costing Nationals increasing money scramble. And pronto.

    • Robert Guyton 15.1

      But were now arguing about money-matters, thanks to Joyce.
      He’ll like that.

      • tracey 15.1.1

        Except at least one person in the media earlier this week said National promises leave them wuth the same problem. No wiggle room. Highlight that once, firmly, from economists and Joyce is shown wrong and wrong. Why woukd he want to keep arguing then?

  16. katipo 16

    This why civics and critical thinking needs to be taught in schools, as it’s proven to help
    inoculate us against false claims.
    https://phys.org/news/2017-05-inoculation-messages-fake-news.html

    • tracey 16.1

      It would hep if journalists asked for independent verification of such big claims before printing them with big headlines

  17. Hooch 17

    I hope they ask Joyce in his debate with Robertson whether it’s possible to be in politics without lying like Gower asked the other night.

  18. Robert Guyton 18

    In any case, Dame Anne Salmond says:
    “In New Zealand at present, a seismic shift is under way. Despite all the hype, this election is not really a contest between left and right. Instead, the tectonic plates between the generations are shifting.”
    Joyce’s “cunning” strategy speaks to the passing generation. He’s missed the boat.

    • Pat 19.1

      it is heartening to see more and more of the MSM calling this out (compare to previous elections)…..I think they know a sinking ship when they see one.

  19. tracey 20

    Is anyone keeping a running total of National’s money scramble?

    The latest

    “National social developments spokesperson Anne Tolley and leader Bill English announced the plan to invest $72 million over the next four years to support beneficiaries under 25 ”

    By support they mean.

    Guaranteeing work experience or training for those who have been on a jobseekers benefit for six months or longer, and financial management training.
    providing rehab services if drugs are identified as a barrier to employment.
    Ensure people under 25 who are on a jobseekers benefit receive intensive one-on-one case management to get a job.

      • ianmac 20.1.1

        The so called Taxpayers Union is suspect. I think Joyce supplies the chosen stats and leaves off the ones that show National promises. eg: Who pays for the 100,000 kids out of poverty?

      • One Anonymous Bloke 20.1.2

        Who did Jordan sleep with to get that information? Was he upfront about the nature of the transaction this time?

      • tracey 20.1.3

        We know you believe anything that confirms National are great. Taxpayers Union is known by everyone as a stooge for Nats and ACT. Everyone except you it seems.

    • tc 20.2

      Has anyone done the same over their power generator flogging. A simple sale proceeds versus the cost of all their promises with it then a nett value.

      Not only would it show their bs on the hoof spin but how badly nz did out of the deal if you included a comparison of the lost revenue plus capital gain v sale value.

      All those economists and none of them have focused on the most blatant and obvious rip off that national dealt nz in asset sales.

    • Cinny 20.3

      Snap. I was wondering if any independent economists had costed out Nationals spend up

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 20.4

      The “support” includes cutting their benefits if they don’t shape up. Presumably at that point they either starve or turn to crime.

      The whole thing is a dog whistle promoting National’s vision of the bludging drug-taking beneficiary, who should be hated by one and all. Delivering Hatred for New Zealand!

  20. Upnorth 21

    Watch out there is more to come. Someone is writing a press release

  21. ianmac 22

    On a brighter note, look how this cartoonist sees the actions of Jacinda.
    http://thewireless.co.nz/articles/follow-the-leader-jacinda-ardern-labour

  22. One Anonymous Bloke 23

    I suppose we shouldn’t be too hard on Prostetnic Vogon Joyce and Double Dipper.

    The NZLP just had its budget peer-reviewed by a wide range of economists and it cost them absolutely nothing at all.

    The Market giveth, and the Market taketh away. In this case credibility changed hands 😀

  23. tsmithfield 24

    Maybe not such a laughing stock.

    The argument I made above about the “door in the face” strategy causing focus on the tenuous nature of Labour’s budget seems to be starting:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96562393/even-without-a-black-hole-labour-may-have-fiscal-problem

    • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1

      Oh, so Joyce’s massive fail means everyone is discussing the merits of Labour’s plan?

      That’s terrible. Really bad. Awful in fact…sorry I’m having difficulty keeping a straight face 😆

      • tsmithfield 24.1.1

        What part of “fiscal problem” don’t you understand?

        • peterh 24.1.1.1

          They have found the hole, today it has been reported there is a big black hole in the milkyway

        • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1.1.2

          What part of “may” don’t you?

          Also, I suggest that rather than basing your argument on the headline, you read the entire article, which actually addresses “your” “sincere” “concerns”.

          Edit: and please try and do better than pointing out that coalition government makes this plan anything more than a starting point: National are in exactly the same position.

        • red-blooded 24.1.1.3

          Actually, this article was pretty non-committal about whether there may be a problem. If you look past the headline, It says that Treasury forecasts are always estimates, so numbers will change during the time being budgeted for, that all major increases in costs have been covered already, that it’s perfectly possible to run zero budgets (that the Nats did it twice) and that there are other ways of accounting that would give more appearance of wriggle room.

          “Is Joyce right about the zero Budgets?

          Possibly, but not necessarily.”

          “Frankly, circumstances will change. The entire fiscal debate is based around Treasury’s forecasts which never end up exactly matching reality. No one would expect them to.”

    • tracey 24.2

      Meanwhile Joyce’s black hole awaits Audrey Young’s analysis tomorrow.

    • Robert Guyton 24.3

      Optics, tsmithfield. Joyce’s look awful and English’s worse!

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