Labours’ party list

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1. Sanctuary 1

   31 July 2023 at 11:54 am

   Some people there who have been told to go away and win their electorate or see ya later should things go really peared shaped.

   Michael Wood’s fall from grace is spectacular, Chippy must have been really pissed at him. And Phil Twyford has a winnable seat, but is clearly on the retirement list after next term. Over all, a good job has been done to guard emerging talent.
   • lprent 1.1

     31 July 2023 at 12:18 pm

     That is the interesting feature of the list.

     Winnable seat but outside or low in cabinet – way down the list in the 40s.

     The 30s are full of people that I don't particularly recognise from my limited observations of interesting people. But I'm pretty out of touch these days due to work and time limitations.

     Teens and twenties are all about retaining talent.

     Michael Woods is unlikely to lose Roskill, especially since he now has time to win it. He is a formidable campaigner. I'm pretty sure that he will outlast Chippies displeasure.

     Not a bad list.
     • Craig H 1.1.1

       31 July 2023 at 12:33 pm

       Current ministers and officeholders (whips, Speaker, assistant speakers) (source) are the top 28 on the list (along with Nanaia Mahuta and Greg O'Connor who have not sought list selection), so those on the list below 28 are not ministers or officeholders. In that context, anyone above about 35-40 has ranked reasonably well.

       Agree with your point about win or leave though – outside the top 28, it doesn't look like many candidates in safe seats are high – Ibrahim Omer in Wellington Central is probably the highest (and that's obviously not as safe as if Grant Robertson was still running in it).
     • Belladonna 1.1.2

       31 July 2023 at 12:48 pm

       It seems to me that lots of the teens and twenties are electorate MPs who are highly likely to retain their seats – I guess list placing might be an insurance factor. But people like McAnulty, Edmonds, Salesa and Russell are unlikely to need their list place.

       The 30s are much more chancy. They are mostly people who either have a very tight race for their seat (e.g. Halbert in Northcote), or are standing in a seat which is not winnable for Labour (Rosewarne in Waimakariri). These candidates will be watching the election polls with an eagle eye – hoping for a Labour party vote result in the upper half of the 30-40% range.
       • Craig H 1.1.2.1

         31 July 2023 at 2:02 pm

         Teens and twenties (down to 28) are office holders as in ministers, whips and speakers – I don't think whether they hold safe seats was part of the calculus.
     • Sanctuary 1.1.3

       31 July 2023 at 1:13 pm

       places 15-26 seem to be where they are guarding talent – although I have never had much time for Deborah Russell who is the wrong type of candidate for her seat.
       • Craig H 1.1.3.1

         31 July 2023 at 1:59 pm

         15-26 is cabinet ministers and officeholders (as in whips and speakers).
2. Incognito 2

   31 July 2023 at 12:27 pm

   Okay, these (plus the ones who stand in the Māori electorates) are the people who are in it for us, so let’s now find out what they offer us in terms of campaign policies. I’d like to see a policy announcement by the end of the week; build momentum and keep it going (without any unnecessary distractions the could derail the campaign).
3. Peter 3

   31 July 2023 at 12:58 pm

   As a thought starter I give Labour the same number of seats as National has now, 34 and ponder see which listers might make it. A swathe of 2020 first time MPs will be gone.
   • Belladonna 3.1

     31 July 2023 at 1:24 pm

     If you're also assuming that Labour would retain their 'safe' seats – then I think there would be zero off the list. There are around 35 pretty safe Labour seats in Parliament right now.
     For that scenario to happen, though, there would have to be a very significant turn against Labour – comparable to the unprecedented 2020 election results and the heavy punishment administered to National (I don't see this on the cards, myself).

     But, in that heavy election defeat scenario, it would be highly likely the current 'safe' Labour seats would turn over (just as 'safe' National seats did in 2020). So, you'd probably lose some Labour List MPs, bringing in 5-6 off the Labour list.

     On current polling in the early 30% – you'd get around 43 seats – a substantial reduction on the 65 currently in Parliament. I don't realistically see Labour dropping a lot below that – unless something drastic happens.
4. Patricia Bremner 4

   31 July 2023 at 1:18 pm

   Jan at 6 and Andrew at 11? I think Andrew has been a real workhorse and this seems???

   Off the front bench. Too left?? Not middle enough for Mr. Safety?

   Just my take.
   • Craig H 4.1

     1 August 2023 at 8:26 pm

     Doesn't look like that has changed from the current cabinet rankings.
5. Belladonna 5

   31 July 2023 at 1:39 pm

   A lot of respect for the people standing at places 45 up – who are not in a winnable seat.
   They are effectively campaigning for the Labour party vote – for the benefit of others.

   People like Oscar Sims, who has little chance of beating Swarbrick in Auckland Central, and at 63 on the list, almost certainly not going to make it into parliament on the Labour list.

   Campaigning is hard work. And standing in the public eye as a candidate (not even as an MP) – is tough personally and tough on your family.
   • Visubversa 5.1

     31 July 2023 at 3:15 pm

     Exactly, when I was on the Labour list ( a long time ago) I was somewhere between 53 and 56 – originally 56 but with some dropouts and some toy throwing, I ended up at about 53. I knew I was not going to be elected, but I had a community of interest to represent and that is what I worked at.

     Campaigning is not easy, and as I was a Public Servant at the time, I had to take 6 weeks off without pay.
   • Sarah Sutherland 5.2

     31 July 2023 at 4:30 pm

     First timer candidates usually have to campaign in seats they are unlikely to win, it is called learning the ropes one of the important characteristics of a politician is being resilient and it is also all about getting the message out
6. observer 6

   31 July 2023 at 2:04 pm

   All that really matters is that there are enough solid MPs to fill Cabinet positions, bearing in mind that any potential Cabinet post-2023 would also include Green minsters like Shaw, Davidson, Genter etc.

   The list passes that test. If Labour are in opposition then it doesn't much matter, because then several MPs would quit during the term and bring in lower ranked candidates.

   In 2020 National lost (through defeat or pre-election resignation) the heart of their team: Bennett, Kaye, Dowie, Adams, Tolley, as well as promising new candidates like Tania Tapsell … plus post-election resignations like Nick Smith. Labour are unlikely to suffer losses of that magnitude.
   • Belladonna 6.1

     31 July 2023 at 6:49 pm

     Or, you could say they've already suffered them. From those who've announced or already acted on retirements this year (Ardern), to those who've stepped on their swords and bowed out (Nash), and those who've got a better offer from a competing company (Whaitiri).

     I think if Labour loses, then there will be a core of long-term MPs who many well bow out (especially if they take a swing at leadership and lose). I would not be surprised to see Robertson or Parker retire – or Rurawhe, for that matter.
7. Chris 7

   31 July 2023 at 2:11 pm

   How the heck did Tinetti manage to stay as high as 6? Thought she would've been cut loose long ago.
   • Jack 7.1

     31 July 2023 at 5:55 pm

     You might ask the same question of 2, 3,7 , 8 and 9 inside the top 10. Frankly Labour had an opportunity here to demonstrate they had talent in their current 60 plus MPs. The public have had a good look at the current cabinet. I suspect to many, especially undecided voters, the lack of depth is crystal clear. This was labours chance to show they have some depth/ talent. A chance they’ve blown.
     • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1

       31 July 2023 at 7:32 pm

       I suspect to many, especially undecided voters, the lack of depth is crystal clear.

       A shallow squad battling a hollow heap for votes? I suspect there are alternatives.
     • Dennis Frank 7.1.2

       31 July 2023 at 7:52 pm

       There's more to list selection than marketing to the public. I have no idea how this ranking was achieved, mind you – did Labour even explain that? I agree there's nothing there likely to get folks excited but the Nat/ACT alternative is even more underwhelming so who cares?

       Nature provides many species with hierarchical ranking. We only differ in using arbitrary design schemes to produce a result. Mana plays a part, in-crowd popularity, opinion-leaders often sway collective opinion in a group, quota-filling is in the mix as well. The other relevant factor is how marginal their seat is, for those seeking safety up the list. So we get a random walk as output…
       • Craig H 7.1.2.1

         1 August 2023 at 8:30 pm

         Chippie didn't say it precisely, but officeholders (ministers, whips, speakers) are ranked ahead of everyone else (and party rules put the leader and deputy leader at 1 and 2 respectively). That accounts for the top 28 – would be higher but Kiri Allan is obviously departing and Nanaia Mahuta and Greg O'Connor are not on the list.

         The Labour regions each have a list conference in which members rank the list candidates for that region, and NZLP Council then puts together the final list based on general considerations like capability, those results and gender and ethnic balancing.
8. DS 8

   31 July 2023 at 4:41 pm

   Severe neglect of Otago-Southland. Rachel Brooking and Ingrid Leary will win Dunedin and Taieri, but this basically kicks Liz Craig out. From four current MPs in the region (two electorate, two list), Labour will now only have the two Dunedin electorate MPs south of the Waitaki River.
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 8.1

     1 August 2023 at 5:20 pm

     Yeah thats a real shame about Liz Craig. She's done some hard yards…and plenty of good work. Her page is pretty cool.

     If in South support her.

     https://www.facebook.com/LizCraigLabour/

     And..some good news from her page. More of this needed

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/132647730/massive-housebuilding-factory-to-be-built-in-southland
9. adam 9

   31 July 2023 at 7:45 pm

   Good reason to vote Mariameno Kapa-Kingi ~ Te Tai Tokerau.

   2 MP's for the price of one.

   for more info

   https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/mariameno_kapakingi

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