Written By:
- Date published:
9:13 am, December 24th, 2011 - 59 comments
Categories: disaster -
Tags: christchurch, christchurch earthquake
Heartfelt greetings and commiserations to all in the shaky city. (I’ll be joining you soon for Christmas.)
Use this post for general discussion of the ongoing quakes in Christchurch.
It’s really sad. I was hoping our work would be cleaning up more difficult claims in the new year and getting to the less urgent stuff for people, but we’ll probably have plenty of new damage to deal with. The good news is that EQC was only just starting to scale down, so it shouldn’t be too hard to reverse that again for this event.
I hope Brownlee at least cuts short any vacation plans and gets to work with CERA asap, but I think it’s fair enough if people who aren’t actually working on the recovery plans don’t rush home from vacation, especially seeing having all of cabinet working on it would probably slow things down.
Criticising the government if they make bad or undemocratic decisions relating to the recovery is fair and balanced, but it’s just gormless to bag on people for taking a holiday when there’s literally no way of knowing when a new earthquake is going to happen.
Bob Parker raced back from his family gathering in Taupo. It’s kind of a tricky situation though because it’s not like he’d specially contribute anything that others can’t handle anyway, but if he didn’t go back he’d get bad press.
I don’t think it’s only bad press. It’s his job to front up when things like this happen. I have a modicum of respect for him that he came home so promptly.
+1. While I don’t like his policies, at least he’s trying to support the people of Christchurch.
Another excellent view on this topic
http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2011/12/shock-doctrine-in-christchurch.html
See Lyn W 23.1.1 – 24/12 6.45 am
Ow the idea of PPP in health is not good. It makes me feel sick straight away. What a pity that Christchurch couldn’t give a definite sign to National by voting them out? If I lived there I wouldn’t be at all happy with their methods and vision. Presumably many people in Christchurch have blue blood injected in their veins at birth or be indoctrinated with slogans that teach them they are a superior type, connected or following the English upper-class, who do not mingle with Labour the working class party.
Why can’t some national bonds be started to raise money for hospitals. The moneyed are supposed to be panting for a reliable vehicle for their assets, so they could get their asses off the bench and invest in their country and get paid reasonable levels of interest for such blue chip stock.
Other countries have also tried lotteries that raise money for such purposes. A dedicated health lottery would be better than Lotto allocations that must be split amongst many worthy causes not as essential as health infrastructure.
Oh for God’s sake – I have lived in Christchurch for over ten years and this bullshit about it being a toff-controlled Little England has really got to stop. No-one has ever asked me which of the First Four Ships I came in on or where I went to school. The presence of the idiots of the National Front makes it nore more racist than any other large city – the vast majority of Cantabrians treat them as an embaressing joke. The only reason that national got voted in again and gained ground is that Labour voters are less likely to own property and were among the first to permanently relocate after the first quakes – that and obviously major natural disasters and uncertainty tend to make swing voters vote for the conservative or status quo option. And while I really don’t want to continue to live there because there isn’t any opportunity for me right now in the chaos, I don’t think some of the hysterical raving bullshit I’m reading from some posters is helping anyone. We are a community. I’m sorry if that sounds a bit harsh, but except for those posters living in Christchurch you can have absolutely no f!*$ing idea what it’s like or how much inane comments hurt and piss us off or what an unmitigated unending horror it is – you might think you do from media coverage or what your firends tell you, but YOU DO NOT. If people in Christchurch foolishly voted National, leave them the f@!%k alone – they’ve got enough shit to deal with right now, WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER- ideology takes second place. Try to remember that this is New Zealand’s second largets city and the main hub for 1 million people in the South Island and some of our most significant parts of the agricultural and tourism sectors, AND THAT PEOPLE LIVE THERE AND ARE TRYING TO CARRY ONE WITH THEIR SHATTERED LIVES. If you are going to talk about the political ramifications of the Canterbury Quakes, there are only three sane ones worth pursuing right now:
(1) The severing of communications and cooperation between the CCC and CERA at the Government’s insistance.
(2) Why the government has not underwritten reconstruction now that insurance is impossible to acquire.
(3) Why are the citizens of Christchurch not getting the information they need to get on with their lives.
Sorry for the ranting and shouting, but you need to keep in mind that this is a very real and precarious existence for all concerned, and turning it into an ideological bunfight when there are very real pragmatic issues that must be addressed, or talking hysterical shit about Christchurch being doomed is extremely distressing.
@ Populuxe1 Sorry that you have got such a load on your shoulders. Obviously many in eastern Christchurch have to spend most time just managing, so it isn’t a bad idea for others to try and get an overview and understanding of the situation in Christchurch and its future. Also whether the most affected people are being adequately and fairly helped. The rest of NZ has to help with funding and support, Christchurch can’t be left to flounder on its own without resources so we are involved.
And ideology shows up in decisions about whether people are helped as in a collective or many are left to flounder individually with inadequate support.. When people are helped it needs to be unequal help in the right direction ie not those with large assets and good incomes getting the most and what’s left over going to the poor. The unequal treatment needs to be that those with the most need receive more, and those with much receive lesser assistance. This all comes down to ideology. It doesn’t take second place, it is right up front, in decision-makers heads.
I apologise prism, but when you are in the midst of it, and you’re awake nights wondering if your roof is going to fall in or whether you’re going to lose what little the previous quakes have left you with, then politics becomes a bit of a side show. Usually The Standard is a welcome distraction, but this was too close to the bone and perhaps I shouldn’t have read this thread.
@Populuxe1 Hi I did a comment which I thought would follow yours 31/12/11 12.35 am – but it’s shot up to 25. All the best wishes for happy times over New year and the holiday season.
+1
Hard to express thougths on Christchurch, they’ve got much more to cope with than a few distant words can help. We only feel the tail end of the worst of them, and even from down here it’s “soul shaking.
A forlorn Christmas wish is for the earth to calm for the people of Christchurch for Christmas.
For some humour ….
Post-June this was our song to the tune of Tom Petty …”don’t wanna live like a refugee…”
Yesterday our song to the tune of Violent Femmes add it up, with words amended…. “had enough,,, had enough,,, i just had enough,,, had enough…”
Realistically vto it’s perfectly reasonable to suggest that this kind of quake sequence could continue for another 3-5 years. I know that’s a horrible thought, but geologically it’s still a blink of an eye. Less than that.
Can ChCh survive this? Such an extended period of uncertainty, disruption and personal trauma is certainly not something you would hope for, but we know have to accept is something that we might have to begin planning for.
What is a realistic response to this possibility? We could at one extreme abandon the city, or at the other extreme do nothing and let people muddle through as best they can… which at the end of the day might amount to much the same thing as abandonment.
This quake sequence is the final straw for the ‘let’s hope for the best and she’ll be right’ approach we’ve taken as a nation so far. We’re going to have to change our thinking on this one.
I’m sitting comfortably far away, but having been through the Edgecumbe event in 1987 (equally violent but compressed into only a few weeks) I’m concious that it took me a good 15 years afterwards for my body to stop traumatically reacting to every slight movement. Even now just thinking about what you are all going through gives me itchy palms.
So how much more can the city and the people cope with? I know everyone varies enormously in their reaction to this kind of stress, but I believe it’s cumulative. Do we wait for a mass-breaking point? This is all a bit unprecendented vto… what are your thoughts?
The thing is that tens of thousands of people have already made their decision, or are very close to it. Official notice is not required.
edit: last two posts the reply button hasn’t worked. this was in reply to mr logix just above, and the one below was to lanthanide. [Sorry that was me mucking you about moving things…RL]
Prior to this I felt that if there was another big one then that would be a tipping point and those many who were still semi-undecided and still muddling through would have the decision made for them i.e. they would leave. That applies to some around us.
Now that that has eventualised I suspect that is what will come to pass. By yesterday morning many more people than normal had already left Chch for xmas because they were knackered and tired and wanted a break. By early evening yesterday the streets were becoming more deserted. It is definitely emptying.
And you’re right, it is cumulative. The stress, the uncertainty, the high blood pressure, … It is all very damaging.
I must away, but a bit more briefly, the major impact will be any rebuild stopping virtually dead. Insurers must surely turn away again. Who would insure buildings in Chch?. And even infrastructure type repairs, etc. There is no doubt now that rebuilding is just plain silly for the simple reason that the damaging earthquakes are continuing. That seems to be the only certainty. Until the quakes stop I suspect that no building will happen. And that reality has many consequences of course ……….
Population decrease.
Little positive activity.
Decreased economic activity.
Increased health acitivity.
More ghetto suburbs.
It’s easy to get depressive. Anyway, gotta beat the crowds to the mall and I’m running late! later
I didn’t feel any of them except the 5.1 at 6:whatever it was. I was already awake anyway.
Yeah strange isn’t it. The gathering last night and then all through the night we felt them, even in the last half hour. Since 5.30am there have been eight between 3.5 and 5.1. Some places just feel them more I think. Those out west feel nada. We seem to feel the lot.
Its quite fascinating though getting to learn them. You always feel/sense/hear them first and then feel the intimacies of each shake and its different characteristics. Gets better if you place yourself, say, in a slightly wobbly chair with feet on the ground and sit still and quiet. Set up your own body as a seismometer.
Well, gotta head off for xmas eve chores. Leave the emergency kit with the others. Take some water, cellphone, wallet, boots and warm clothes, some fud – and prepare for the worst. Strange days.
20 quakes registered since midnight mostly 3 and 4s with a 5 at 6:30am. The long term future looks bleak. So sorry.
Sorry, my post above was entered before it was completed. Here it goes again.
To try and bring a positive note to the conversation:
At Christchurch quake map there is a cumulative total for earthquakes after each event. With a bit of subtraction and division, the figures work out as follows:
September 4 to February 22 932 quakes per month (approx)
February 22 to June 13 904 quakes per month (approx)
June 13 to December 23 250 quakes per month (approx)
As can be seen, the number of monthly quakes has reduced considerably since June 13. After June 13 the aftershock activity subsided much more quickly than with the two previous large quakes. So here’s hoping for more of the same. Lately we have had periods of almost a week between quake activity on some occasions, so things are definitely quieting down, despite the recent big quakes. The experts have said all along that reduction of quake activity doesn’t preclude more large quakes. So while it is both frustrating and tragic, it is within the pattern of expected activity.
On the other hand, I just read an article by experts involved in earthquake investigations here who thought that we would be down to one aftershock per month by about March 2012. If that is the case, then the probability of the next one being large is obviously much less. Certainly, things seemed to be heading towards much lower activity. Hopefully the aftershakes will subside quickly again, and we can get back to the rapid downward trend in activity.
My heart goes out to those who are covered with liquifaction again, especially at this time of the year. Hopefully what I have pointed out above will give you a bit more hope if you are suffering badly with the aftershocks.
Yep, it’s getting better, even if I totally understand people being fed up with the uncertainty and risk. The ground will eventually settle, and hopefully the communities that are staying will be paid out adequately to fund their repairs or, in the case of unsound land, rebuilding elsewhere.
I dont think anyone has really fully looked into what is happening under Christchurch. We need the finest geological minds in the country (and the world), down there ASAP, looking into what the hell is going on.
Thoughts go out to Christchurch. Just when they recover from one shake, another one happens and they are back where they started. Dont really blame anyone who quits the city. Dont blame anyone who takes their EQC money and runs either.
Indeed, I can’t help wondering Millsy, if all this movement isn’t building up to something even more catastrophic?
Your suggestion that there should be a full scale investigation employing the finest geological minds and As Soon As Possible makes a lot of sense. Such a proposed large scale investigation is what a responsible government should be funding right now. Not to mention serious funding for earthquake strengthening of public buildings in the targetted towns mentioned in the following report.
The earthquakes around Christchurch are no way near the main fault, though there has been pivoting and elastic deformation on the plains to the east of the Southern Alpine Fault, as Chris Rowan a NZ expert, points out, the main fault itself has been frozen for a long time.
I wonder if the exploratory wells they drilled in the Canterbury region before the earthquakes geologically destabilized the area? Despite the Fracking industry saying that the technology does not cause earthquakes… there are now some reputable studies that show otherwise. That could account for the Earthquakes being in unexpected places… in any case a full scientific seismological investigation is overdue.
It’s a volcano getting ready to collapse into a caldera. The resulting combination of seawater and rock will result in a helluva explosion.
Nope. If there was a basalt plume (the only likely candidate for your idea) causing the earthquakes, then you’d expect that the earthquakes would have a very localised centre rather than being scattered over 50 kms. You’d also expect a much slower sequence in time.
Volcanoes don’t start as calderas. Calderas form AFTER a cone collapses at the END of an eruption sequence. This is because the magma reservoir under the cone(s) empties out. So your time line just displays your characteristic ignorance.
I think that you are confusing the characteristics of several different types of volcanoes. But really you’re talking your usual half-baked nonsense.
No, expert either but it ?looks? more like a scree slope, where at the higher end there was an initial earthquake. which pushed scree down and destablized a slope further down. Christchurch is half way along the scree slope and so was hit harder when the scree slope its on collapsed. But its not over. The slope still continue on out to sea. Would not surprise me if there was a tsunami.
The analog I have for earthquakes is a sloping sand hill, some slips may trigger other slips.
I think we need to halt all rebuilding of Christchuch until more understanding has been made of the geological side of things, and that includes residential buildings. Of course, short term work to ensure public safety would need to still go ahead, but anything permanent, out of the question.
Abandonment is probably unlikely or unrealistic, but I wouldnt be suprised if Christchurch was a smaller, more decentralised community in 10 years time, with completely different demographics, with itinerant tradespeople and single unskilled workers drifting into the city and families with the financial means and connections to be able to relocate, drifting out, and only the post loyal or poorest remaining.
Thats a bit over the top. Practically no damage above very minor.- in spite of ground accelerations being very high.
Liquefaction in areas that had been hard hit before but have been ‘redzoned’ so no rebuilding will reoccur anyway.
The newspapers have headlines – Panic, but Im surprised by the video of people who are quite calm during the shaking.
There will be no exodus. For every big quake to hit Chch the media will always say ‘this is the last straw for lots of people etc’. The truth is that those who wanted to leave, by and large, already have. Like we did. The remaining people know that this kind of thing may continue for years but have done the sums on all the relevant factors and realise that they may as well ride this out.
The situation in St Albans —
Edgeware Road from Springfield to Cranford has a couple of plate-sized holes, most due to third-world style patches bodged together after the previous shakers. Continuing east it just gets progressively worse with new areas of uplifted footpaths, silt-covered driveways and gutters full of gray muck.
The wife and I had a nice walk along North Hagley Park (it’s a treasure for sure) and down Deans Ave to Riccarton Road. Nothing visibly wrong along Riccarton Road that we could detect. The Westfield Mall was crowded as one would expect the day before Christmas.
good piccy.
its no good anthropormising a natural event.
it will all work out for the best.
hell I didnt spel anthropomorphising right.
I am respiring to lurn how too speel.
http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2011/12/two-more-earthquakes-shake-christchurch/
Neat.
Rebuild on the parks, playgrounds and golf courses that are in safe(r) areas and remake them in the red zone where no sane person would want to rcside.
Plans and work based around this idea has been on display at the Palms Shopping Mall at Shirley where it has generated very good feedback.
Officialdom has been resoundingly uninterested…
Imo, it will ALL come down to insurance… no rebuild can happen if you cant get insurance on the buildings
RDSsubstantial houses can be built on driven piles .These houses are inherently stronger as they are self supporting made of wood[only one wooden house in these Quakes has collapsed an old higgledy piggledy built house] And can be moved if there is liquefaction or land subsidence.
I would not allow any other type of permanent dwelling it would be stupid!
Its all in their heads according to John Key’s comments today.. Just an inconvenience to flying out to Hawaii..
“Prime Minister John Key says the most significant damage from Christchurch’s recent aftershocks is psychological. “
Christchurch will recover.
The determination and community spirit of the locals will make it happen.
Just watching all the volunteers digging liquefaction, again, out of strangers sections shows that they will recover.
Determination or just the desperation of people with not a lot of good options?
I’m not taking one jot away from their efforts, it’s admirable and not a little humbling watching them pick themselves up and clean up the mess over and again. My point is this…. these shocks COULD go on for years and I’m asking, just how long does the rest of NZ sit back comfortably and watch them go through this?
A situation like this, an extended series of high energy, high acceleration shocks one of the largest cities of a modern developed nation is more or less unprecedented. I’m suggesting that as a nation maybe it’s time we had another think about what our expectations are.
+1
I’m thinking we should all be grateful to Chch people who are gaining the skills at living with sustained trauma. If the shit hits the fan badly with peak oil and CC, we will need alot of people with those skills. The rest of NZ should be paying close attention.
I also feel uncomfortable about how much the rest of NZ is letting Chch deal with this. It could actually be any of us, and we’re now starting to see how this is a long term issue, not just a natural disaster that happened one year. It’s going to affect all of us. I don’t know what the solution is though.
RL, I’ve been wondering how other places have coped with such a situation. What happens in Japan? Do they not get such sustained aftershocks?
This wiki page on peak ground accelerations is worth reading. While the ChCh quakes have had relatively small magnitudes, only 6.3 compared to 9.0 for the Tohoku/Sendai quake in terms of total energy, the ground accelerations which are what counts in terms damage. In that sense the ChCh quakes have been some of the largest ever recorded.
Moreover the wiki page records Tohoku accelerations at 2.7g, but crucially it’s not clear where this was recorded. Certainly Tokyo was not subject to anything like that, nor most of the Japanese land areas… while we know ChCh caught the full brunt of the 2.2g right bang in the Eastern suburbs.
Yesterday’s quake at about 1g is still right up there in terms of impact. And even if most of the more vulnerable structures have already fallen over or been demolished, there’s the cumulative damage to currently sound structures… and as John Key correctly stated, the cumulative trauma for so many people.
Great that we have a strong government in place that has looked after Christurch so well in these times of trouble. That is why National polled so well in Chrsitchurch this election because the voters knew how hard they tried despite trying times ,and labour attempting to undermine everything they were doing.How many times did we see Dalzell going on about the eastern suburbs didnt go down well with the voters did it?
I wondered at the time how well it would have coordinated if Labour were in control ,and whether they would have to get permission from the greens everytime they used a front end loader to scoop up a bucket load of silt just in case there were snails endangered.
Hold on people of Christchurch work through this and things will get better eventually. Our hearts are with you all
[lprent: Another sycophantic brownnoser – I really have to make a rule about people who make my skin crawl. Perhaps this mythical godlike government that you see can figure out how to get insurers back into Christchurch. That would be some practicable help. ]
James 111 is clearly one of the tribe of people who believes that if you say something that makes it true. Either that or he works in marketing and brings his work home with him. He’s like one of Prince Charles’ flunkies, constantly reassuring poor Mr. Windsor that talking to plants isn’t completely mad, and the people are hanging off his every word.
“Great that we have a strong government in place that has looked after Christurch so well…”
I appreciate your attempt at sarcastic humour, but we shouldn’t make fun of the sad situation the Cantabs are in, made worse-so by their government’s incompetance.
Merry xmas.
Seven quakes today alreadyOn first floor we hear the rumble, we tense and wait.(grrr)) The Christchurch Labour M.Ps Jim Anderton, Clayton Cosgrove, Brendon Burns, Ruth Dyson and Lianne Dalziel worked themselves to a standstill and Lianne is in the thick of it again. Christchurch has lost a lot of voters. We in Christchurch Central lost 4 voting booths which in 2008 recorded a 2 for 1 swing in our favour There was not one voting booth in Avonside this election Around 4,500 fewer people voted.Other losses were recorded in Richmond and ShirleyBrendon & Philippa Burns worked tirelessly for Christchurch. The 2014 battle has commenced.
on a different level, what worries me is that the authorities will do a New Orleans, ie use a natural disaster as an opportunity to socially cleanse poor people and turn the place into a boutique tourist place where no-one who isn’t wealthy can afford to live.
(Rather less brutal in Chch of course – no-one’s been shot!)
Hats off to Mayor Bob Parker for coming back and all the work he has put in since September.
Merry Christmas everypeople..
The Great Earth Monster has been giving Christchurch the once over again, of that there no doubt.
If anyone wants to see the Great Earth Monster unsheathed check out Castle Rock, (above Heathcote Valley, Feb epicentre), from the north. The peak got smashed in February and June and seems to have lost a bunch more leaving his giant phallus exposed. Its quite the disturbing thing – the beast is clearly primed, in fuck off mode and risen for all to see…
Watch out all of us.
for Gods sake, why don’t we get real.
This City is fucked.
It was bloody mediocre forever, but now t is fucked.
In geological terms the earthquakes could go on for a century.
Goodbye Christchurch
Leave now, get real, go anywhere,
if you don’t go buy my house idiot
for Gods sake, why don’t we get real.
This City is fucked.
It was bloody mediocre forever, but now t is fucked.
In geological terms the earthquakes could go on for a century.
Goodbye Christchurch
Leave now, get real, go anywhere,
if you don’t go you can buy my house idiot
To try and bring a positive note to the conversation:
At Christchurch quake map there is a cumulative total for earthquakes after each event. With a bit of subtraction and division, the figures work out as follows:
September 4 to February 22 932 quakes per month
February 22 to June 13
So, is this step one in the takeover of Christchurch? They already control ECAN.
Earthquake Minister scolds council
BEN HEATHER
Last updated 05:00 21/12/2011
Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has accused “parts” of the Christchurch City Council of slowing the earthquake recovery and has refused to rule out sacking councillors.
Days after being reappointed, Brownlee waded into Christchurch politics, accusing some councillors of being ill-informed and not supporting Mayor Bob Parker.
“There is a case for some elected members of the council to step up and learn a little more about what is going on than they know at the moment.
“We need to get past the idea that we are waiting for someone else to do it,” he said. “I have great sympathy for the mayor. I don’t know that he is all that well supported by the council.”
The relationship between the Government’s Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera) and the council was good, but there were “parts of the council” slowing the recovery, he said.
He would not elaborate but has previously raised concerns about council red tape.
“Our tolerance for slowing things down is zero,” he said. “I think there are too many examples at the moment of people wanting progress coming up against a bit of a brick wall in some parts of the council.”
Brownlee said several people had asked him to “sack the bloody council and you guys [Cera] can get on with it”, but Cera was not big enough to take over all of the council’s role.
“We are a small organisation and you need people who know where things are at.”
However, he did not rule out using his special powers to sack councillors or assume some of the council’s responsibilities. ..
The Press report of the growing sinkhole in Monterey Cres. and the comments of a geologist who lives there about the need for the authorities to bite the bullet and stop waffling about areas being considered suitable for rebuilding when they obviously aren’t and so placing huge stress and despair on people gives a fair indication of how Gerry Brownlee and his merry men are failing earthquake-affected Christchurch people.
Each time I visit Christchurch there is a noticeable earthquake. I can understand people deciding to leave this shaky place, the earth shakes and the economy quakes and the employment disappears down a sinkhole.
I don’t know why this isn’t the last in the thread. It’s not a reply to anybody’s comment so doesn’t make sense stuck in the middle of old comments. Odd way of organising this thread.
[lprent: looks like a issue in the threading with orphaned child comments. I will write some code to scan for and fix such orphans in the morning. I am getting bored with holidaying… ]
Thanks Lynn though I can’t believe that you are bored yet. Still if it’s going to rain everywhere fining and shining up your system so that the hubcaps sparkle might seem a good occupation. Or if you feel like a game of trivia we can supply good content with just a little thought.
OK if Brownlee wants to get heavy with the Christchurch City Council like they did with Ecan then why didn’t the government put on a price freeze from day one.
What has resulted is that those from the red zone have been settled up at yesterdays price and have gone their ‘merry’ looking for another house to buy.
This has created a huge demand on property that has forced the price up astronomically and the developers and speculators are laughing to the bank!
On the backs of other peoples misery!!!!!!!
CERA has not addressed this issue nor does it intend to because idealogicaly the government is free-market driven.
I am very surprised and even suspicious as to why Geoff didn’t campaign hard on this issue.
Did you just answer your own query.
@Populuxe1 I have been visiting Christchurch each time there has been a big earthquake except for the June one. And my sympathy is with you. This 23 December my flight arrived and I was picked up by about 1pm and the quake happened shortly after. I sprang up and ran into my grandchild’s room upsetting her afternoon nap, there was no problem, but you can’t be sure can you. And our sleep was disturbed each night with the 4’s so I have an idea about how hard it is for you permanent residents. Also that virus that gives a sore throat and tiredness and takes ages to go away seems to be circulating well in my family’s area, also seen in Nelson, but just another stress for Christchurch if its going around.
The hospital idea of PPP also is a concern and was what prompted my comment. Good politics have the potential to make positive advances but these can’t be guaranteed and only a careful eye and protest may prevent some bad, permanent results.