Latest UMR Poll – National sinking

Written By: - Date published: 7:40 am, October 14th, 2020 - 180 comments
Categories: greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, tax, uncategorized - Tags:

The latest UMR poll results were leaked yesterday and were not good for National.

The rumoured results were:

  • Labour: 50%
  • National: 29%
  • ACT: 7%
  • Greens: 6%
  • Winston First 2.7%

Clearly they approximate National’s own polling and they have caused Judith Collins to reflect and tone down her rhetoric and be more constructive because the last couple of days have shown a marked improvement in her behaviour.

NAAAHHHHH just joking.  She has been buzzing around like an angry bee on strong steroids.

Yesterday she engaged in school playground shtick and accused Jacinda Ardern of lying about Covid, and being dishonest about its intentions for tax policies and suggesting that if elected Labour would implement Green Party policy.

I wish Judith was right.  The country really does need a progressive tax system.  But like the implementation of a Capital Gains Tax Ardern has ruled it out and I am sure that she will stick to her word.

Then Judith decided to fat shame people.  From Radio New Zealand:

National Party leader Judith Collins has described obesity as a weakness and says people should not “blame systems for personal choices”.

She was asked about her view on obesity during a radio interview yesterday and was today asked about that by media on the campaign trail. She said people who were obese needed to take some personal responsibility.

When told that some had called her comments heartless, Collins said: “Do you know what is heartless? Is actually thinking someone else can cure these issues. We can all take personal responsibility and we all have to own up to our little weaknesses on these matters.

“Do not blame systems for personal choices.”

This is not a very good thing to say in a campaign, particularly in a country that struggles with obesity and with a National Front bench with more than a few members who appear to have seen the inside of a donut shop one too many times.

What will today bring?  Will she challenge Jacinda to a fight?  Will she insult short people?

Whatever happens her Trumpian shock and awe routine is not working.  As the UMR poll shows.

180 comments on “Latest UMR Poll – National sinking ”

  1. Sacha 1

    “Do not blame systems for personal choices.”

    Should be read back at her trial.

    • Alan 1.1

      Why? Do you not wish to live a life where you get to make personal choices?

      People who blame everything on "the system" or "the Government" are pitiful.

    • georgecom 1.2

      wonder how Gerry Brownlee is feeling knowing his weight is due to his "weakness".

      And that being the case, Gerry being overweight and "weak", what does that say about Nationals "Strong" team.

      Of course a healthy diet and exercise are important for a persons weight and health. So is not smoking, minimal alcohol, work/life balance, healthy homes etc important for ones health

    • woodart 1.3

      cheapest tummy filler at supermarket is whitebread. have known people who couldnt afford anything better .collins is a fool. wonder what her samoan husband thinks?

  2. Muttonbird 2

    Hoskings just now trying to claim the Greens are toast and National will form a government with ACT and NZF because…shy Tories.

    • Leighton 2.1

      Hosking is clearly following his leader's cue and becoming more detached from reality by the day.

  3. observer 3

    It's not surprising that we're putting on weight, when a kilo of cheese is only $5.

    • Roy Cartland 3.1

      Wow, I wish I lived in your supermarket zone, I can't get 1kg for much less than $10.

      • Incognito 3.1.1

        Planet Key

        • Chris T 3.1.2.1

          That has to be one of the most pathetic attempts at an article I have ever seen.

          • mac1 3.1.2.1.1

            I'd be interested to know what exactly you found pathetic. Chris T. The basic premise of the article was that well-off people don't have to know the price of cheese.

            It's the poor who know that. It's the ones who read the per kg price before buying. It's the ones who head for the bargain shelves. It's the ones who get their bread from the local food kitchen.

            The article then says that these are the same people who live in damp houses that they rent.

            Not for nothing is there an old saying in England referring to a non sequitur- "What's that got to do with the price of cheese?"

            The article argues that there are 'sequiturs' to not knowing the price of cheese. It means there are connections between privilege and personal knowledge.

            • Muttonbird 3.1.2.1.1.1

              I bet Chris T doesn't even bother voting. Just heckles from the sidelines.

              • Chris T

                This is what sort of reporting we are dealing with in the current election.

                Feel free to justify

                “Jacinda Ardern has stepped up to defend Mosgiel after her opponent Judith Collins snubbed a local cafe which had specially prepared lunch for her.

                Collins was expected to pop into Blend Espresso on Thursday where the staff had been told to make sure there were cheese rolls ready and waiting for the National Party leader – but she never arrived.

                Instead, she left Mosgiel entirely and headed to the seaside town of St Clair – where she did indulge in a cheese roll, away from the watching eyes of the media.

                In Newshub's podcast Kitchen Cabinet, political reporter Jenna Lynch revealed Ardern staunchly defended the Dunedin town, and got in a subtle dig at Collins' when she heard what occurred.”

            • Chris T 3.1.2.1.1.2

              Do you honestly think the leaders of either National or Labour rock on down to the supermarket to buy cheese?

              I would hazard a guess given neither of them got the price right, and their pay scale, their partners do it online.

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Chris T, your guess is as good as mine. Fortunately we don't have to guess about Collins. Maybe another prayer to the “little baby cheeses” is in order.
                Storm in a ‘fondue’ pot laugh

              • Infused

                I order online and actually buy the $5 250g blocks as we eat it so slow

                • Treetop

                  I was a bit surprised to find that online prices are not offered in the supermarket with some items. This was at Countdown for potatoes.

                • Tricledrown

                  That must be mozzerella stretching your cheese

      • Treetop 3.1.3

        I am finding a kg of cheese to cost $12 on special most weeks at Pak n' Save.

    • Peter 3.2

      Which shop is that in? It sure as hell isn't in our town.

      If the way to deal with obesity is to have price structures based on the potential for items to lead to obesity, maybe the problem is for the too hard basket.

    • mosa 3.3

      " It's not surprising that we're putting on weight, when a kilo of cheese is only $5 "

      Must be close to its best before date.

    • Clive Macann 3.4

      $5 a kilo. LOL.

      Your Kilo must be less than half the size of the rest of the country.

      • observer 3.4.1

        It was a joke about Judith Collins' infamous claim, as has been explained upthread, with a link to help.

        Not sure it could be more obvious, really.

  4. Incognito 4

    More than a few members of the National Front bench being slightly podgy is not the problem. The bigger problem is that they are grossly unfit. This is not by personal choice but a natural selection.

    • Tricledrown 4.1

      Collins poisonous demeanor is damaging National beyond repair,ACT with it's high polling figures means Nationals attempts at being a centrist moderate party can't be taken seriously.

      • Incognito 4.1.1

        My eyes are on what’s happening to the left of Labour, not on what’s to the right of National. That’s where the most relevant and important politics are and where the future of New Zealand lies, everything else is status quo and BAU. It seems to hinge on about 25,000 votes, give or take.

        • Michael 4.1.1.1

          Agree. If reports of lots of young people voting early are true, our political balance may be about to change. From now on Boomers and whatever people born before 1945 are called will decline in numbers. Those born in the 1970s and after will constitute a greater share of the voting population. Their choices and their values matter increasingly.

        • sumsuch 4.1.1.2

          Vote Left, and that obviously wouldn't involve l-a-b-o-u-r. See Grant's recent utube ad appealing to former Key voters. But, gratefully, we don't have the monopoly of the US Democratic Party!

          I wish the personnel of those parties matched their policies. In the 30s the personnel were bulls held by their tails.

        • Patricia Bremner 4.1.1.3

          Sadly the Greens are not keeping people feeling secure. The strains of covid life have made people adverse to risk and more change.

          The Greens seem to be intent on steering Labour which feels like a threat, and Collins is playing to that.

          The Green Party is stepping into New Zealand First "tail wags the dog", and people don't want that.

          • Sean Carroll 4.1.1.3.1

            I have never voted anything but Labour. I am 67 years of age but I did not vote in the 1987 election (Douglas, Prebble and the rest). I resent this bunch calling themselves Labour. They knowingly allow housing to be outside the reach of lower income Kiwis. They have done very little to improve the wealth of the low income people in their three years. They are either gutless or just plain right of centre as far as my reading and personal experience tells me. Sure, they are for diversity and are socially liberal but in the end are only slightly recontructed neo-liberal politicians. I have had a gutsful of them.

          • Treetop 4.1.1.3.2

            Yes being realistic is important.

          • Incognito 4.1.1.3.3

            Here are some real threats: poverty & inequality, climate change, political & socio-cultural extremism.

            These did not come out of the blue, they are man-made and human constructs. People voted for these, not necessarily directly, but most definitely indirectly with unintended consequences.

            Ironically, any attempts to halt or undo some of those unintended consequences are now seen (perceived) as the (new) threats. They did not come out of the blue and they won’t just dissolve themselves and go up in a wee puff of smoke.

    • Chris T 4.2

      "National Front bench"

      laugh

      Mate subtle!

      Thought that was funny though….Even if a massive over exaggeration, given the current govts history of being anti Chinese.

    • Treetop 4.3

      Morally unfit as well when it comes to some issues.

  5. Roy Cartland 5

    Journalist: Ms. Collins, given your comments on obesity being the personal responsibility of the sufferer, would you agree that your Deputy Leader has a serious problem with taking responsibility? And isn't that a significant deficit for someone wishing to be Deputy Prime Minister?

  6. Dennis Frank 6

    Is it okay for a plump person to be fattist?? Judith must have pondered the question long & hard. How would Jerry feel about it? Her political advisors seem to have done a runner in recent times. Holed up in a cabin in the hills, no doubt. If she had run it by them, they would have questioned the relevance of obesity to the campaign, eh?

    A subtle attack on south Ak pacifica? Target that hotbed of Labour voters where it hurts? Make them feel guilty about self-indulgence, in the hope that they realise their only hope is to toughen up & vote National? Could be such logic ran through her head.

    If so, she's given up on centrists, who are the defectors she needed to pull back from Labour. Perhaps she just doesn't get it…

    • woodart 6.1

      collins has been traipsing around the country, pretending to like groups of people that she normally would avoid. poor dear is tired and confused. lashing out at any targets. last days in crusherbunker, polls falling from sky, aides running around, seeing their careers and C.V..s collapsing. jerry strangely absent, phonecalls not being answered….

  7. Tiger Mountain 7

    Votes still seem to be sloshing around between ACT and NZ First, so it will be interesting to see the numbers in any other final polls.

    Winston is openly running a spoiler campaign now and Mrs Collins is calling the PM a “liar”-talk about feeling the pressure!

    Let’s see where the ticks ultimately fall on Sat-with the Māori Party close to being back in play, and the Greens not guaranteed to return, Labour may still come to regret not doing at least one electorate deal.

    If we end up with a National/ACT Govt because of Labour Party hubris and desire among unelected Wellington wonks and “tops” for “one Labour to rule them all”…

    Sure, the trend for months now is Labour 47% min and Nats closer to, or even sub 30% BUT it is a major risk to take-with ACT ascendant-for a party that still owes the working class of this country a grovelling apology for Rogernomics (and rolling it back if granted a second term in the Covid era.)

    Party Vote Green!

    • greywarshark 7.1

      I think Labour Party offices would take a beating if they lost the election because of their hoity-toity ideas. Whoever told them they were that great; they are built on the work of the pioneers and later generations have degraded that achievement, as is the case with NZ overall.

      We have been attracted to the shiny and new, no matter what the cost – Jack in the Beanstalk stuff. Now NZ has to pull one over the giant to try and steal some of his goodies, but is Jack fast and fit enough to go the whole route? And if he wins will mother approve of the value of what he has brought home?

  8. Craig Glen Eden 8

    Just a small point, when you your self are obese and you start talking personal responsibility then surely that must apply to ones self as well Because Judith is clinically obese. Also I’m not sure if she has noticed but her deputy is chronically obese. I don’t say this to fat shame but just to point out how National MPs seem to live in an alternate world. One in which they think it’s fine to tell others what they should do but all the while ignoring there own states.

    • Wensleydale 8.1

      As long as they all take 'personal responsibility' for scoffing pies, everything's fine. I'm reasonably sure Gerry's not fussed with being roughly comparable in size to a small building. Or maybe he is, and that's why he seems perpetually ill-tempered.

    • Treetop 8.2

      Did Collin's have anything worthwhile to say to assist people to reduce weight such as no GST on fruit and vegetables?

  9. mango 9

    Does anyone know if there will be a Reid research poll before saturday? those leaked numbers look alot like the last RR. I'm picking another colmar brunton before the debate on thursday.

  10. KSaysHi 10

    Everyone is responsible for their own choices, but the government can make choosing to eat healthy much easier.

    • remove GST on fruit and veges
    • improve funding for mental health, pain treatments, sexual abuse, eating disorders, and sleep clinics.
    • rather then insisting on the food pyramid which doesn't work for many, encourage people to find what works for them
    • increase welfare funding
    • in combination of the above^ incentivise people with money to reduce weight as the cost/benefits to the country should be obvious. Research on why and how this works can be found here.
    • finally a public campaign on accepting people of all sizes. Judgement never helps.

    We seem to be moving in the right direction smiley

    • Wensleydale 10.1

      This. It's all very well to have sanctimonious folk in leafy suburbs suggesting people would be fine if they just ate their greens and cut down on the white bread… but when you can't afford decent greens (let alone meat that isn't a hundred variations of mince and/or sausages) and the crappy supermarket brand white bread for a dollar is all you've been able to budget for, things are considerably less simple. "Should I get some actual fruit juice for the kids this week… or ten packets of Raro? Decisions, decisions." I watch families shop in Mangere Pak'N'Save sometimes, and it's a genuinely depressing experience.

      • indiana 10.1.1

        Food as a Machine Gun

        https://youtu.be/nOub_6Ph5S0

        Public Enemy advocates how you should beat the system, not blame the the system for your downfall.

      • woodart 10.1.2

        very good post wensleydale. fools who dont have to count every cent wouldnt realise the cost of eating healthy.

      • Descendant Of Smith 10.1.3

        There was also some research showing that poor families would spend their last $20-00 on food at the petrol station or dairy cause it was just too depressing going to the supermarket and seeing people with trollies full of groceries.

    • gsays 10.2

      There are not a lot of overweight vegans….

    • Craig H 10.3

      If fruit and vegetables were 0-rated for GST, how would we also force supermarkets to pass on the savings and not just leave the prices where they are or only pass on some of the savings?

  11. Weasel 11

    Surely it's not too late to replace Crusher with Dr Shane (I'll tell you what – Maoris can go to Harvard you know)?

  12. swordfish 12

    We don't yet know when the fieldwork took place … Corporate UMR's are usually conducted on a monthly basis over the final week of the month, occasionally spilling over into the first day or two of the following month. So this one might just be a little out of date … polling perhaps ending around the last couple of days of Sep or first two days of Oct ? Which would date it to directly between the last two Colmar Bruntons.

    Speculation but based on the pattern of previous UMR Corporates.

    UMR have no doubt been polling continuously during the campaign … but surely that'd be for the entirely separate Party Internals.

    • mango 12.1

      You are right about timing. There are some unknowns here but it seems unlikely that national would be up after the last few days. The similarity with the RR got my attention and suggests that CB may be overstating support for national as it has done in the past.

  13. Dennis Frank 13

    Statistics from the Ministry of Health show that one in three New Zealanders over the age of 15 are obese… In addition, the statistics show the prevalence of obesity among adults differs by ethnicity, with 67 per cent of Pacific, 48 per cent of Māori, 29 per cent of European/other and 14 per cent of Asian adults obese.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-gerry-brownlee-says-weight-is-his-responsibility-judith-collins-says-obese-people-must-own-personal-choices/EWPIXPGKXMUW5BBWAPPEGIZMNI/

    Causative factors are multiple, and that view seems widely shared. Nobody ever spells them out – which is extremely significant tacit consensus!

  14. Anker 14
    • A. number of years ago I was in South Auckland for the opening of a trust. Big affair. My partner at the time and I arrived in the morning under the misunderstanding that there would be lunch. We began to feel very hungry so snuck off to find a nice little cafe with a range of food options. Drove and drove, but nothing like that. In the end we settled for KFC. What utterly disgraceful food from a health point of view. Never eaten it before or since. It was quite moorish though and cheap.
    • we drove back to the event. The vast majority of people there were either overweight or obese. And I imagine if I was working long hours trying to feed my family on minimum wages, kfc would be what I would eat too.
    • judith is clinically obese. I think she must have gained a lot of weight over
    • the years. Again she is pointing the finger at others rather than lOoking in the mirror. A lot of projection going on there. Same with accusing Jacinda of lying
  15. Brian Tregaskin 16

    Judith Collins will be lucky to get 30% on Saturday –we are seeing her landing the National Party somewhere in the 20's as final score. She may join Bill English as part of the 20 club !
    How many National leader’s have ever got in the 20’s apart from Bill?

    • peterh 16.1

      NATS/ACT under 39%

      [Removed text from user name]

    • Incognito 16.2

      Judith made a personal choice that she would step down if National didn’t make 35%. They’re a real bastard, personal choices, because you have to live with the consequences, if you have any personal decency, integrity, and honesty in your non-overweight body.

    • James - another user by the same name 16.3

      Judith has been chosen to be the Leader of the National Party (who doesnt want the job.) The Lunch and Judy show will bring an end to the Party. This election result will make English look good. Judith will deliver a legacy defining loss. Crushed by the legacy of monumental failure. All her own doing.

  16. dv 17

    When are the early votes counted?

  17. Anne 18

    Whatever happens her Trumpian shock and awe routine is not working.

    Yeah… she has been channeling Trump from Day One as leader. But this is NZ not America. The average Kiwi is better educated than the average American and we were not brought up on a diet of incessant flag waving and hands on heart mindless jingoism. Also,
    on average Kiwis have a higher IQ level than the Yanks.

  18. Peter 19

    "Judith Collins says polls are wrong and she has a path to victory"

    "National leader Judith Collins says she doesn't believe the polling and her party can still win the election.

    She said the polls were wrong on Donald Trump's 2016 win, on Brexit, and on the last Australian general election, during a sitdown with Stuff on Wednesday

    "It's certainly different from what I'm seeing out there," Collins said."

    What she's seeing out there? She should have gone into that Specsavers shop!

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300131957/election-2020-judith-collins-says-polls-are-wrong-and-she-has-a-path-to-victory

  19. Brian Tregaskin 20

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300131957/election-2020-judith-collins-says-polls-are-wrong-and-she-has-a-path-to-victory

    The only question we should be asking is will Judith join Bill as part of the 20's club?

    see my post above

    "I just don't believe the polls because it was wrong on [Australian Prime Minister] Scott Morrison," Collins said."

    That scenario cannot happen in NZ as the polls were 100% correct in one state predicting a Scott Morrison win. Plus the Morrison campaign was a textbook perfect social media campaign that worked
    start at 32 mins to see how TG did it
    https://youtu.be/0QeHsjnGcpg?t=1933
    18 minutes talking about the tradecraft TG used to influence the voting public. They helped Morrison win the unwinnable election by using a social media firehose of attention-grabbing, emotion-manipulating, behaviour-nudging lies designed to corral the faithful and convert the fence-sitters

    The Nats do not have this resource this election so they are lacking a core social media skill that they needed

    • greywarshark 20.1

      How old is this guy? And how did he get such confidence at an early age? I think that this ability is necessary for the young Labour people. And he knows he has to make his point quickly – 1.7 seconds on mobile, 2.6 on desktop I think he said. Presentation is foremost, the main points and why, then how later, always remembering that you must catch attention and then hold. In newspapers it was the first para so not so different with tech, just more.

      And TG what? It can be short for Thank God and I guess that if you have hired a tough little bunch of gunslingers like this, you will feel that you are in with a win to clean up the town.

      At the end of the day, when talking to people with machine-minds, inclined to the linear, you have to speak to what remains of their soul, without being soppy and spoiling the strength of your message. To the emotionally-minded you have to speak to their soppy side but bring in some firmness so they can see their way to a future where they can provide for themselves, have a home, a job, and travel around too, and have an enjoyable life overall.

      In other words you have to tune into the internal feelings of the person – I notice that TG mentions getting attention away from fluffy kittens on the internet. There is a throwaway comment about socialism also. So appealing to the preferred class type.

  20. Ad 21

    If Labour get anywhere near 50% of the vote it will be their best result under MMP, and even taking MMP into account would be their best result since 1935.

    • Dennis Frank 21.1

      Yes, I anticipate a bunch of suchlike verdicts emerging post-election. Credit due to the PM's overall performance, but more to her x factor in essence. It does reveal that bedrock mainstreamers can be led to the left still – if that is presented as non-threatening.

    • swordfish 21.2

      1938 (Lab 55.8% vs 1935 45.7%)

      • Ad 21.2.1

        😊

        Something to aspire to after this one.

      • Craig H 21.2.2

        I always like to reply to any comments about Labour in 2014 with the point that National's lowest low and highest high are both lower than Labour's lowest low and highest high in the entire time of National's existence.

    • Uncle Scrim 21.3

      Bit of a short memory. Labour got 48% in 1987. Also 48% in 1957 and 1972. And 51% in 1946. Hell they even got 47% in an election they lost (1949).

      • Ad 21.3.1

        Good to see my elders chipping in.

        You're like our regular leftie cyclopedia.

        • Uncle Scrim 21.3.1.1

          Thanks. I just like percentages. I do remember 1987. Who would have thought a Labour govt (if I can call it that) would have increased its vote Share after 3 years in power. History repeating?

          • Ad 21.3.1.1.1

            Sure hope so.

            If you're a member, make sure you get to a party on Saturday night.

            We won't have had one like this since 1999.

  21. AB 22

    Jude falling back on the just world fallacy to explain obesity. Of course, she'd use it to explain poverty as well. It's a cornerstone of conservative 'thinking' – essentially that everyone gets more or less what they deserve in this world based on the quality of their talent, hard-work and decision-making. If the world is broadly 'just' in this way, then no significant intervention or reform is required, and those who find themselves at the top of the economic tree need feel no embarrassment or obligation to change it. The fallacy has just enough of a germ of truth to be appealing – it is the clarion call of BAU..

    • greywarshark 22.1

      AB You can ask for a raise on the basis of the quality of your comments and the clarity of their explanation. Two chocolate fish, or 10 chocolate coins wrapped in gold paper at Christmas. Your choice, you deserve much more but hey these things are just tokens, good commenters are priceless.

    • bruce 22.2

      “If wealth was the inevitable result of hard work and enterprise, every woman in Africa would be a millionaire.”

      ― George Monbiot

    • Pat 23.1

      Think it has little to do with votes (this time round at least)…shes applying pressure so that the tax has the minimum chance of being implemented, and should it (or a form) be so then that will be used to campaign 2023….the worst thing that could happen for National would be the implementation and for the wider electorate to discover it dosnt negatively impact them.

    • Incognito 23.2

      What if I win one million dollars in Lotto and have to pay WT on that? It would financially cripple and punish me for being lucky. Oh, I’d only pay on wins over and above one million? Sweet 🙂

    • Sacha 23.3

      She's just trying to scare votes from Grn to Lab, that's all. Desperation.

  22. swordfish 24

    Here's something for you Young people with your fancy postmodern hairdos & ostentatious avant-garde attitudes to contemplate:

    NZ First poll ratings in Colmar Bruntons 2011 vs 2020:

    ( Note: M12 = Poll 12 months before election / M11 = 11 months before election … W1 = Final Poll in Last week of campaign & so on … NP = month without poll)

    …………….. 2020 ……… 2011

    M12: ………. 4.2 …….. NP

    M11: ………. 4.3 …….. 3.1

    M10: ………. NP …….. NP

    M9: ………… NP …….. 3.6

    M8: ………… 3.3 ……… NP

    M7: ………… NP ……… 2.7

    M6: …………. NP …….. 1.6

    M5: …………. 2.9 …….. NP

    M4: …………. 1.8 …….. 2.4

    M3: …………. 2.0 …….. 2.3

    M2: …………. NP …….. 1.9

    M1: …………. NP …….. NP

    (Final Weeks of Campaign)

    W4: …………. 2.4 ……… 2.2

    W3: …………. 1.4 …….. 2.9

    W2: …………. 2.4 …….. 2.2

    W1: …. awaiting ……. 4.2

    Election: awaiting …… 6.6%

    So similar dismal polling … then NZF suddenly skyrockets over final week (combined with CB's usual understating of Winstonian support) & ends on a shock 6.6%.

    (Yes, the Teapot Tapes saga probably helped … & Winston was somewhat younger & more vigorous … but … ya never know … stranger things have happened at sea)

    • Muttonbird 24.2

      Yet the National Party pollster, David Farrar and ACT supporter, Damien Grant continue to attack him in the media.

      Odd strategy.

      • Peter 24.2.1

        When there are no more toys to throw out of the cot you start picking at the paint on the cot railings.That have you trapped.

    • Ad 24.3

      Winston is Bela Lugosi with a strong following among the Undead.

      • greywarshark 24.3.1

        The pre-election tension is provoking some great attempts at humour. It is said laughter is good for the health. Standardistas are getting sharper by the hour.

    • froggleblocks 24.4

      It was definitely the Teapot Tapes what did it.

      You also need to consider that NZFirst was not in Parliament in 2011, so their low polling was on the back of very little media coverage etc. It's the opposite this time – they're in Parliament and government, and it seems the electorate at large really don't like the way they performed.

      Also consider the relative polling of Act and UF in 2011, vs their relative polling now. And again the matter of early voting, much greater in 2020 than in 2011.

      Expecting lightning to strike twice is wishful thinking, IMO.

      • swordfish 24.4.1

        Odds are heavily against … but never say never.

        Entering that polling booth concentrates the mind … unusual things can happen … 2017 NZF voters who've ostensibly deserted to Labour in the wake of COVID-19 – sensing the election's a fait accompli – allowing them to return to the old Winstonian fold at the last moment ? Joined by a few 2014 NZFers who defected to Lab at the last election & the odd uber-pragmatic Nat who can't quite bring themselves to tick Labour in order to keep the Greens out ? … Unlikely sure but still possible.

        15-20% chance, I'd say.

        PS: Only wishful thinking if you're a NZFer (I'm not).

        • froggleblocks 24.4.1.1

          Or a COVID resurgence happening before Saturday.

          • swordfish 24.4.1.1.1

            .
            NZF 4% in the final polls and it becomes a 50/50 proposition … 3% odds against but still theoretically possible … under 3% = Toast.

        • Ad 24.4.1.2

          Winston Bela Lugosi coalition negotiation 2017

          • swordfish 24.4.1.2.1

            • Muttonbird 24.4.1.2.1.1

              Sorry, but this doesn't compute. You claim to be an ascetic elder not interested in the disruptive ways of youth, yet you are familiar with Bauhaus.

              Which is it?

              • swordfish

                .

                You young people have a smart answer to everything, don't you … ya crazy mixed up punks with your crack cocaine habits & your replica Arnold Palmer golf-clubs.

                Well, let me tell ya something, punk .. this is a friggin fantastic single … I'd regularly hear it's post-punk (slightly gothic / slightly Kraftwerk) tones emanating from my older Brother's bedroom c 1981. Yeah, that's right, we had music in those days, punk !!!! … Hint of Dada, whiff of Nosferatu, Dub-influenced feedback & heavy industrial echo effects.

                It's called Class, Fella … and if you young Hippies burning your draft cards & indulging in free love all over the inner suburbs of San Francisco don't like it then, Mister, you can just about swivel like a pig on this mid-digit.

                • RedLogix

                  Mid digit 😂

                  • swordfish

                    Artistic influences included:

                    Red Dwarf: Kryten as Jake Bullet scene

                    Seinfield: Library Cop scene

                    with just the merest hint of:

                    Monty Python: Architects slaughterhouse sketch

                • Ad

                  Goddam liberals.

                  "I always thought I was a liberal until som've those young'uns started calling me right wing…"

                • I Feel Love

                  That song is nearly 40 years old. I have anecdote, a young guy I know was amazed this elderly person we know was listening to Velvet Underground, I then had to explain when the VU were releasing records this old guy was in his early 20s!

            • Chris T 24.4.1.2.1.2

              Good song, but you can't beat their classic rendition of another.

  23. mosa 25

    Personal choices only applies to National party donors and supporters. Everyone else doesn't have the luxury of what to do today because there is so little money to survive.

    That includes the people who labour for starvation wages and can only feed their kids crap food because unlike the healthy options its bloody cheap.

    When a staple like milk is more expensive than a large bottle of coke and fanta something is just not right.

    No wonder the right bang on about personal freedom they are the only group who can fund it and have the resources.

    • Peter 25.1

      Their thing about personal freedom and we're all on the planet to do our own thing, socialism is bad, etc went down the funny quickly when they put their hands out to be bailed out of when the pandemic came. A la South Canterbury Finance.

  24. georgecom 26

    glad to see the poll used the correct term for the Winston First Party. Sick of see it misnamed as NZ First.

    And Judith should be glad the election is in 3 days. Another couple of weeks and the main opposition party might end up being ACT.

  25. RedBaronCV 27

    I'm still amazed that around 35% of the electorate wants a good chance of catching Covid.

    Nact would no doubt have private quarantine running by lunchtime with all the leaks into the community that that would result in.

    Time for the Greens and Labour to start raising this issue complete with the economic downsides of having covid here and push hard at Judith and David over this. It's worse economics than any wealth tax.

    • Poission 27.1

      Nact would no doubt have private quarantine running by lunchtime

      That could be a while,as they want to ban lunchtime.

  26. Adrian 28

    Jeez Judith. Talk about pot ( guts ) calling etc….

    According to a recent New Scientist article on the IgNoble Awards, which highlight research that may have doubtful usage, one of the winners was an attempt to find Markers For Narcissisim ( don't ask me to try and spell it again ) sufferers of which do not see themselves as others do and obviously triggered by the current Trumpulism, the results were less than convincing, there being only one vaguely conclusive finding.

    And that was EYEBROWS, prominent and the use of.

    Still 2 days to go for time to claim " Actually", can I say Miss Ardern is obese !

    Disclaimer, the writer is a guts and on a see-food diet and is the not-so-proud possessor of a belt collection far, far larger than they should be.

  27. observer 29

    So now it looks like 3 polls out on Thursday or even Friday (if Roy Morgan has one).

    All a bit pointless, given most people will have voted by then. If Winston is relying on the "dead Russian" making headlines, it will come too late.

  28. Uncle Scrim 30

    Given that more than half of those polled might have actually already voted, those final polls will be almost like the exit polls that happen in other countries.

    • observer 30.1

      It's all a bit weird. Getting people to answer phone polls is hard enough at the best of times, but I wonder how many will bother to tell pollsters what they've already done? And do the questions change to take account of this? (Usually it's: "If there were a general election tomorrow, who would you vote for" etc).

      • Uncle Scrim 30.1.1

        Do you think some people might have changed their minds? ‘I voted two weeks ago but if an election were held tomorrow, um …’

  29. georgecom 31

    https://tenor.com/view/flush-gif-10754413

    Nationals vote under Collins leadership

  30. sumsuch 33

    Whatshername is far from Trump, let alone Oz. Collins, I recollect. Key wasn't the devil, nor is she. Fairness is our imperative, and always serves the cause of the people.

  31. NZJester 34

    While there are people out there who are fat just from being lazy, there are a lot more who are fat due to conditions beyond their control. There are some that are fat due to mental heath reasons, some due to biology, some who are unable to exercise due to physical disabilities. Some who where never shown how to cook a meal and are stuck in a cycle of cheap fast food to name but a few.

    Some people could be helped with support from the government targeting some funding in the right areas, while some can not.

    There is no one size fits all approach to fixing the problem, or one place you can point a finger at and say that is the reason.

  32. PsyclingLeft.Always 35

    "Using her trademark 'I'll tell you what' preface, the one that often portents a 'keeping it real, levelling with you, possibly pseudo-scientific' truth, Collins revealed her thoughts on obesity, invoking the doctrine of personal responsibility. "

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428358/opinion-collins-pandering-to-food-industry-lobby-with-obesity-remarks

    Collins ":thoughts" would be a very slim book : )

  33. Peter 36

    Hopefully disconsolate would be Nat supporters don't vote because they see the writing on the wall. The more the blade is twisted the better.

  34. Treetop 37

    Going by the poll results above it goes to show how out of touch a seasoned politician is with her voters and her caucus.

    Those who do not vote for Collin's see through her old style failed political rhetoric which does nothing for those who struggle.

    The final election result for National could be as low as 25%.

  35. Tricledrown 38

    Collins keeps digging a deeper hole for herself.

    Denying obesity is a major problem claiming its trivial now when we have one of the highest obesity rates in the world.

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  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

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  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

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  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

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  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

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    6 days ago
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