Living without our fridge – 4-6C hotter

Written By: - Date published: 12:56 pm, January 1st, 2017 - 100 comments
Categories: climate change, global warming, science - Tags: ,

My first degree about 35 years ago was in earth sciences. And one of my lifelong passions has been reading the history, prehistory, and evolutionary history of humans. I picked up the classic habit of those skills – a better appreciation of timescales than individual lifetimes. Which is what makes me rather cynical about the farcical attempts of humans to stop crapping in our narrow evolutionary space over the last century.

In measuring paleoclimates over the medium term (ie less than a few million years and more than the human evolutionary history),  the major two natural factors are greenhouse gases and aerosols. Over the medium term timescales, they are generated by the average levels of vulcanism, but are persisted by the ability of the volatile surface of the earth to wash them into sediments. That has a cyclic trigger (measured in tens of thousands of years) driving it due to planetary orbital and axial positions and the resulting insolation effects on the northern land masses.

 

There are also slower changes due to the continential landmasses drifting into different parts of the globe and their effects on vulcanism, planetary insolation and ocean currents. There are also very long term changes in the suns overall output. However these effects tend to act over tens of millions of years, and for me, are less interesting because they are outside even our evolutionary history. Of course the scientific illiterates do blather on about these – see some of a links and discussion of pseudo-science in “Record heat despite a cold sun“. But basically they operate on too long a timescale to be of much interest over the next couple of centuries.

Persistent climate effects over thousands of years are mainly buffered by the accumulated changes in greenhouse gases in the volatile gases and liquids in the few kilometres at the earth surface. That is because, unlike atmospheric particulates and aerosols, some of the greenhouse gas effects are remarkably persistent. CO2 in particular is both persistent in the atmosphere and gets replenished because it accumulates in ocean water, getting released decades or centuries later.

Human societies since the development of wide scale agriculture over the past five thousand years have acted like persistent volcanic eruptions. They have managed to cause a shift in the pattern in the usual post glacial pattern, apparently largely due to the clearing land for crops and the greenhouse effects of their crops on climate – probably especially rice production.

In the last 200 years, the human effect of forcing the earth to regurgitate vast amounts of sequestered greenhouse gases in the form of hydrocarbons and other carbonates like limestone has been occurred at an unprecedented rate. It  has been way in excess of any natural geological effect because of the speed at which it has happened. However the effect of pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and oceans is well known in geological history – everything is going to heat up.

Just to give an idea of the scale of human intervention, have a look at the last 4 million years of CO2 levels while modern humans have been evolving.

Proxy (indirect) measurements of atmospheric CO2.
Data Source: Reconstruction from ice cores at NASA.
Credit: NOAA

Broadly speaking over the last 4 million years, until humans started interfering, the CO2 goes up and down based on glacial periods. Those glacial periods are largely triggered by orbital and axial shifts with a bit of vulcanism thrown in to replenish the greenhouse gases.

Note that I didn’t refer to glacial periods as “ice ages”. They aren’t. We have been in an ice age continuously for at least the last 40 million years. Ever since Antarctica slid into the south axial polar region while dinosaurs were still the dominant animal phyla 65 million years ago. After Antarctica built a substantive icecap it dropped the world into a deep freeze compared to the ‘normal’.

Humans and all of the other primates evolved over the last 66 million years in a frigid planet. It is a world that we and most species on earth are adapted for. The rapid and now inexorable human driven  rise of temperatures in all of our world wide habitats over the next thousand years will cause all species  to have problems with most of the places we currently live.

Living on an high latitude ocean island with temperature buffering water around us as we do in NZ is just about optimal. But it is hard to see how humans can live with the kinds of temperatures and climate that I’m expecting in the inland tropics. We’re on track for an average 4-6C increase worldwide in the next 100 years (as far as I can see there is nothing to prevent it – se my last paragraph).

But it is likely to be a lot higher in the tropical interiors  because of changes in how those ecosystems handle increased temperatures.

We will see even higher temperatures in the polar and sub-polar areas as increased precipitation in the polar deserts causes more melt directly or via glacial movement.

This year’s 15-20C above normal temperatures in the Arctic is probably just going to be normal in a few years as the northern ice store disintegrates.

East Antarctica will take more time to drop out of its deep freeze simply because it is so dry that precipitation of snow will take a lot of time to build up. That will limit glacial movement because of the geography.

However where warmer oceans touch ice as they did for most of the 20th century in the Antarctica peninsula, then expect rapid melting. Changes to wind and the repair of the ozone hole have slowed the ice melt there for the last decade, but further warming and melting is inevitable over the coming decades.

West Antarctica over the past decade has started to get the rapid effects of warming oceans and more precipitation giving faster movement of ice to the melt.

In a few hundred years, we have melted the worlds polar and sub polar fridges and may have a place to put the few remaining people from the burning tropics. But that really assumes some rationality we have come to not expect from humans. Like markedly reducing the burn of fossil stores of carbon – something that isn’t happening.

About the only thing that is good is that the rate of increase is reducing. However that still means that vastly more greenhouse gases are going into the atmosphere and oceans than are being removed. Most of that will keep coming back again and a again over the following few thousand years.

It is the barbaric culture that treats the worlds fragile ecosphere as a  free-to-dump zone that is really the problem. It appears to have forgotten the basic rule of life. If something appears too good to be true – then it isn’t good. Start looking for the gotcha.

With the amount of fossil carbon released from hydrocarbons and limestone already the gotcha genie is out of the bottle and starting to get mischievous. I can’t seen any political way of actually substantially reducing the rate of fossil carbon release in the next few decades. It’d need to drop to something like a quarter of the current level to have much of a long term effect. So I may live to see the level of atmospheric CO2 to hit double the pre-industrial level of 280ppm (depending on how the stent+drugs holds out). At that kind of level, at best, we can expect to see 4-6 degrees Celsius average sea-level temperature rise by centuries end. I’m glad that I don’t have kids. While I’m pretty sure that humans will survive complete with their society, this century is going to be a lot harder than the one I spent most of my life in.

 


I am uninterested in having discussions with people who don’t read my post and respond to that. If you want to push your own unsubstantiated and unlinked beliefs then use OpenMike to push your own barrow. If you want to place links into the discussion – then make sure they are relevant to the post. If I look at them and I don’t think they are not or I find people who clearly haven’t read down to this, then I will hand out educational bans. Stay on the post topic – there is more than enough in there to piss many people off.

100 comments on “Living without our fridge – 4-6C hotter”

  1. David H 1

    Agreed. I notice it suffering from Chronic Bronchitis, and the difficulties in breathing it comes with. But last year was the worst for difficulty in breathing. High heat and high levels of CO2. So not only are our children going to suffer, but the old and infirm are going to die in larger numbers, due to complications from heat, and increased CO2 levels. I Can already feel it.

  2. Corokia 2

    Cutting CO2 emissions to a quarter should have been do-able and compatible with a decent lifestyle. It wouldn’t involve all the “living in caves” bullshit that deniers rant on about. Its a crime that the climate emergency isn’t being treated seriously.

    • lprent 2.1

      Agreed. But there is a significiant lead time associated with any infrastructure change. That was something that should have started in 1990 rather than starting to change it (in some places) now.

      • Corokia 2.1.1

        Yes. Back when James Hansen first spoke to Congress about climate change. Back at the 1st Rio summit. Back when oil companies were writing internal memos about global warming while starting to fund denial.

      • Mrs Brillo 2.1.2

        It started in1987 when Lange’s government established the first Ministry for the Environment. Its first (and so far the best) minister, Geoffrey Palmer made it his mission to streamline the country’s raggle taggle environment law by consolidating about 97 statutes covering every aspect of resource management and consulting with all interest groups. You would have had to be particularly dense or distracted to have missed the message that the climate was changing, global warming was involved, and we were going to have to put the health of our environment at the centre of our resource use planning.

        The extraction industries’ response was to establish the Tasman Institute to spread misinformation and doubt and delay. Developers and other major resource users have argued for the RMA to be “amended” ever since it was passed. The MSM have played a grubby and consciousless role since they worked out which side their bread was buttered on.

        The Clark government should have continued to push for Palmer’s vision. I expected better of them, to be frank. As for that other crew, they will not pursue any course of action which inhibits their ability to rape the planet for fun but mostly profit. Anyone would think that they did not have children.

  3. Ad 3

    I am in Hawkes Bay on a vineyard for the break and have explored a good way up the Napier-Taihape Road and a number of other roads. One generous tasting-room session at a time.

    It’s a landscape long cleared of most native bush, infested with rabbits, hedgehogs, ryegrass, and pines, for ridge after ridge over 100km of high hills from the central mountains almost to the coast.

    Vidals and Selaks are pushing their vineyards right up the Matapiro River flats for hundreds and hundreds of hectares of new planting over the last few years. There are also plateaux of dairy going deep into country that is exceptionally dry four months of the year or more.

    Viticulture uses far less water than dairy when measured from grass to glass. But you can get a real sense of how much less of an impact extensive sheep farming has on the thousands of rolling blonde-yellow hills, and how much it is being altered at speed.

    I support how the large vineyards are bringing fresh capital and technology, and both high and low-skill jobs. Hawkes Bay needs that. I have relatives who work incredibly hard to do that. And as all the rivers get lower and lower each week, I can see how the Ruataniwha dam and others in consideration are tempting. It’s a brutal country.

    But the march of intensive farming deep into higher and dryer hills of permanent landscape change feels like humans trying to sustain a riskier and more fragile existence on this super-dry land.

    • lprent 3.1

      Yeah, but the history of agriculture in this country has been one of taking insane risks. Like cutting the forest from the hills for sheep and watching the hills sluice into the sea. I remember reading an analysis of the ‘sheep’ country on the east coast back in the early 80s and deciding that it was way worse than cutting the rainforest in the Amazon basin. Far more futile and unsustainable

      • Ad 3.1.1

        Standing on top of any of Hawke’s Bay’s dry, hot ridges with vast blond folded fields rolling away, it’s now impossible to imagine a pre-contact forested realm. There’s not a mote of respite for Monbiot’s “wilding” imagination, near-nothing self seeding other than rye grass, pines, and willows in the river valleys. That’s not for lack of squinting and trying to imagine an alternative world there.

        Non-industrialised natural form is reduced to a few hawks, and the Tui competing with Minor birds in occasional flax clumps.

        Other than the climate, this natural order is neither controlled by humans, nor does it exist without it.

        New Zealand’s compressed timescale is a global marker, as one of the very last major land masses colonized and settled. My granddad still remembered the great burnoffs in Tatramak, and my uncles out of Rotorua were still using great steel rollers to crush hillside forest for pasture when I was a child in the early 1970s. That’s not even a century.

        Beginning to remind me of those big 4-5 degree temperature shifts in the course of a hundred years that accelerated the Paleolithic.

        • lprent 3.1.1.1

          My grandfather was still dropping kauri not far north of auckland when my mother was a child. Since she was born in 1939, I would guess post war.

  4. garibaldi 4

    A very good post lprent. Thank you.
    You are more optimistic about man’s survival than many and your time frame .to me, seems on the optimistic side because of the unknowns of how rapidly the planet is going to ‘react’ to the unprecedented changes being caused by man.
    For our children and grandchildren I hope you are correct.

  5. Paul 5

    A 4 to 6 degree temperature rise will see the end of civilisation as we know it.
    It may also mean that humans, like most other species, will go extinct.
    Of course, climate wars over rapidly dwindling resources would see an even more abrupt ending.
    Read a farewell to Ice by Peter Wadhams to see the consequences of the melting of the Arctic Ocean.
    The feedback loops that will eventuate from this are sobering.

    • lprent 5.1

      It is highly unlikely. I realize this is a daft bit of stupidity beloved of people not thinking every time I transit through Singapore or hong kong. The less said about people currently ‘living’ in Cambodia’s climate the better.

      And this will be a whimper process rather than one that goes with a bang. Societies with inadequate processes or engagement like Syria or Libya will implode. Most will not

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

        Conservation biologist Guy McPherson has it right. The end of modern civilisation will come with the end of habitat capable of sustaining industrial grain farming.

        It doesn’t matter how good your political process are when your wheat harvest has failed for the third year in a row.

      • Paul 5.1.2

        Dr Kevin Anderson, a highly respected climate scientist would disagree with you .

        http://m.democracynow.org/stories/15758

        As would Peter Wadhams.

        [lprent: I just read the transcript you linked to. As far as I can see he is saying exactly what I am. While the link is valid for the post. Your use of it indicates that you didn’t read my post.

        Banned for 1 week for not taking notice of the warning at the bottom of the post. ]

        • lprent 5.1.2.1

          Depends on the population reliant on that food and the effects of the climate change where it is farmed.

          Since the areas it is farmed are not in the tropics or the poles, I would be more worried about emptying aquifiers than weather effects for a number of decades.

          And the world population will at least stabilize before anything gets too severe.

          I am afraid that most people who love catastrophic scenarios have their heads so firmly stuffed up their arse that they seldom get to use their brains. Also for some reason they appear to have never bothered to develop a sense of timescales or logistics

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.1

            How about the one to two billion people who already have marginal food and water security. Although, they can probably all die off and not have much impact on the global top 20% where we are.

            Catastrophic for them, but not for us.

            • lprent 5.1.2.1.1.1

              The ones who are currently marginal are

              1. Generally not reliant on “industrial grain farming”. So I guess you gave up on that argument.

              2. They will be subject to more frequent weather and water issues with their food crops. But generally relatively small areas from a global perspective at a time. In other words not that much different from what we have now. The usual problem is recognising it early enough to get the food in before the politics goes to crap.

              Which generally just continues the push to industrial farming and urbanisation which (for better or worse) usually makes it easier to grow food successfully and to distribute it.

              Strangely these days it is unusual (outside of wartime) to have starvation in urban areas.

              • Colonial Viper

                Strangely these days it is unusual (outside of wartime) to have starvation in urban areas.

                People can often get enough cheap calories. They can’t necessarily get enough fresh micronutrients.

                1. Generally not reliant on “industrial grain farming”. So I guess you gave up on that argument.

                I’m just getting started. My main point: the first class passengers on the Titanic get to pretend to each other for just that little bit longer than the poor people in steerage that ‘nothing catastrophic’ has happened.

          • Andrea 5.1.2.1.2

            “I would be more worried about emptying aquifiers than weather effects for a number of decades.”

            A little concern for soil pollution with salinity and excess fertilisers in pursuit of grains for uses other than food supplies may also be in order.

            And when what comes up from the aquifers is hot, tainted, and carcinogenic then ‘traditional’ crops such as wheat, sorghum, and soy are not going to produce to last century’s levels.

            Which opens the doors to the desperation of genetically modified plants. I wonder what we’ll look like once we add those elements to our DNA? I wonder if anyone will start adapting us to live comfortably at higher temperatures… We’ve been fattened up on junk foods for years. Perhaps Big Biz could stealth-fed us – yeah,nah. Crazy conspiracy thinking:-)

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.2.1

              Add in peak phosphorus: easily accessible supplies of high purity phosphate ore are likely to peak in the next few decades.

  6. Colonial Viper 6

    ” While I’m pretty sure that humans will survive complete with their society”

    That’s for a privileged few in a few lines lucky locations. But the global market economy will be over.

    Btw unavoidable 2 deg C warming by 2030 is my pick.

    • Paul 6.1

      2 degree warming already unavoidable.

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        That’s my opinion too, which means that people running around selling the idea we can still avoid it are nothing more than hopium merchants.

      • lprent 6.1.2

        Currently the value is about 1.2C above 1850. About 0.4C of that is likely to be inherent variation. The nominal unnatural increase is about 0.8C.

        The likely underlying value if we removed pollution aerosols is about 1.7-1.8C. It’d probably be a good idea not to remove too many high atmospheric pollutants too fast. They’re reducing the insolation.

        2C will probably be more like 2050-70 depending on how much white sea ice is left in the arctic over summers. 2030 is too early. Remember that we just had the el nino and aren’t likely to have more than another one between now and then.

        Most of the effect at present as both heat and CO2 is being sucked into the deep ocean currents and will probably be there for at least decades and likely;y for over a century depending which current it is in.

        Basically you are wrong.

        • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1

          Three things:

          1) It takes roughly 30 years for half the warming of today’s CO2 emissions to be expressed as measurable temperature change.

          2) The oceans have so far absorbed 95% or so of the extra heat retained due to increased GHG levels.

          3) The heat absorbed by the melting of one tonne of Arctic ice is enough to heat one tonne of water from 0 deg C to 79.8 deg C.

          Re: 1) This means almost none of the warming of the CO2 emissions of the last ten years is registering yet in terms of actual warming. I also agree that 2 deg C warming is utterly unavoidable.

          2) There are scenarios which suggest that in the next few decades, the ability of the oceans to keep absorbing the large share of heat that it has been taking up is going to fail.

          3) Including: once all Arctic sea ice is gone all year round (probably in the 2030s if not before) massive quantities of heat will no longer be absorbed by melting ice and will instead cause massive temperature increases.

          • lprent 6.1.2.1.1

            I agree. But you seem to be forgetting something. It is called Antarctica.

            Someday figure out exactly how much heat has to be given up to melt ice at the icebox rather than in the ice tray.

            FFS: go and figure out what it takes to melt 2-3 kilometres or more of solid ice. Then read the frigging title of the post. And start thinking rather than listening to some idiot northerners with a European arctic fetish.

            • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1.1.1

              And start thinking rather than listening to some idiot northerners with a European arctic fetish.

              Will NZ still be able to grow enough wheat and corn for its own population – perhaps.

              But once you work out which hemisphere the vast majority of global wheat, rice, oats and corn production occurs in, it may become clearer to you how important northern hemisphere climate stability is to human civilisation.

              Soy is the only large scale staple crop I’ve found that is majority grown in the southern hemisphere.

              • Shona

                NZ grows the best oats in the world outside of Scotland. South Otago grows barley and rye extremely well.Amaranth and Spelt and buckwheat grow anywhere in NZ.
                NZ used have very good wheat production in Canterbury Otago and Southland. We now have Dairy farms in all the areas where these grains were grown. Goodman Fielder Wattie shut down their grain mills in South Otago and Southland back in the 80’s early 90’s and refused to allow the lease of them to any business that wanted to mill grain again.Multinational bastard scum ended the production of grain in NZ. And colluded to increase Dairying.
                The skill set of our farming sector has narrowed considerably in the last 30 years.We are fools and deserve to starve for becoming disconnected from the land and our heritage, These are seen as cultural values worth preserving in countries like Japan and France. We are dumbarses.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Thanks for all this valuable info, Shona.

                  I buy nothing but Dunedin made Harroways oats for breakfast.

                • VictoriaX

                  We could make 7 time more profit by growing oats to make milk than we make by using cows. Also without the environmental damage caused by the dairy industry.

            • John ONeill 6.1.2.1.1.2

              Hansen reckons that once Antarctic melting starts in earnest – which seems unavoidable, since the base of the big glaciers slopes down well below sea level- we’ll get a war between the meltwater and the tropics, which will still be heating up from CO2 and its positive feedbacks. Hence his title ‘ Storms of my Grandchildren.’

    • TheExtremist 6.2

      Good thing Trump hasn’t stacked his administration with climate change denialists then.

      • Ad 6.2.1

        We don’t need to worry much more about the leadership of the collective political order – Paris 21 is as good as that’s going to get.

        China, Germany, and Japan, and the state of California – have governments that still try. Those states – and the businesses within them – are the ones to watch for society evolving within the +2 degree era.

      • Clump_AKA Sam 6.2.2

        That would imply there are rational arguments being made on both sides rather than 99% of applicable scientists saying one thing and the Republican party of the US (and literally no other major group) saying “nah nah I can’t hear you”

        • Andre 6.2.2.1

          The Russians don’t seem very interested in doing much to mitigate climate change. They probably think they would benefit from the world being a few degrees warmer.

          • Clump_AKA Sam 6.2.2.1.1

            I don’t blame you for judging Russia like that when all you hear from major networks is the Russians are coming. Besides if we are fair, climate solutions on a global stage is going to come from China

          • lprent 6.2.2.1.2

            I suspect that they simply don’t have a economy vibrant enough to do anything. They are pretty useless at doing any interesting tech in country these days.

            Not bad when individuals escape the place though.

            • Clump_AKA Sam 6.2.2.1.2.1

              Id beg to differ. The pentagon was saying something similar months before Russia jumped into Syria. Then Russia pulled out unmanned drones, cruise missiles, new satellite tracking capabilities. They’ve been able to sustain a division a long way from home. They made the jump from a 3rd world military to 1st world in literally 6 months which is unprecedented. Poeple also say there economy is mostly petro chemicals which isn’t true, it’s actually 60% agriculture. And they didn’t have to clear cut forests. I’m happy to search for links if any one wants me to

              • lprent

                Umm. I think that you are an ill-informed fool who obviously drinks propaganda like sucking down the koolaid. All of the capabilities you listed are old.

                They have had cruise missiles for at least 30 years to my certain knowledge.

                They were flying UAVs before the Israelis did.

                The GLONASS network has been going up since the mid 80s and I think that they finished their constellation about 1995 – not much different to the US.

                They were fielding divisions far from the soviet union back in the 1970s.

                If you want to play pretend – take it to OpenMike.

                • Clump_AKA Sam

                  Russia is doing its bit: https://youtu.be/YF1b0bXK0og

                • Colonial Viper

                  They have had cruise missiles for at least 30 years to my certain knowledge.

                  Even Nazi Germany had cruise missiles. So yes in a manner of speaking you can claim that these capabilities are “old.”

                  But they didn’t have modern Russian cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, of conducting precision strikes from up to 2,500 km away, able to be launched from almost any small inconspicuous patrol vessel, which have the ability to conduct supersonic evasive maneuvers in the terminal phase of flight to avoid a target’s defensive countermeasures.

                  Another new capability: while the Russians now have ground to air systems capable of knocking out US Tomahawks far from their target (eg. the S400), the Americans appear to have nothing which can similarly knock out Russian Kalibrs.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.3

        Good thing Trump hasn’t stacked his administration with climate change denialists then.

        As opposed to Obama and Clinton Administrations dedicated to Climate Change lip service?

        • TheExtremist 6.2.3.1

          At least they didn’t outright deny it in total.

          • Colonial Viper 6.2.3.1.1

            yeah, give them credit for substanceless liberal virtue signalling then.

            BTW why on earth did Barack Obama green light more deep sea drilling after Deepwater Horizon, when he had the perfect excuse to shut it all down?

            Why did he allow the US Army Corp of Engineers to keep building the Dakota Access Pipeline and tolerate the abuse of native americans by white law enforcement?

            Why did Barack Obama allow a massive destructive fracking boom all over the country under his watch?

            But at least he doesn’t deny climate change!

  7. jimekus 7

    Centuries End – be damned. A 50gt methane burst is on the cards after any August-September from now on and, with atmospheric lows and warm seas invading the arctic, unheard of lightning strikes are sure to rise. Should an ignition take place then within days 6C increase around the globe is expected by Peter Wadhams. Worse long term effects will happen over the decade.

    • lprent 7.1

      Not really. What you should be looking at is the problem with methane escaping the water column. There isn’t that much of a difference, so it tends to stay in the water rather than going to gas, and it tends to trickle out rather than pulse.

      I doubt that we’d get a major underwater pulse simply because it replies on having a warm water current current going deep enough to get well below the existing phase point, having a large enough surface seafloor area and having enough time to allow a phase shift to gaseous. It’d be more likely to trickle out over several centuries.

      Which is what you see in the geological history.

      There is more of an issue with methane getting released from tundra

      • RedLogix 7.1.1

        Some of you may know that for the past three months I’ve been working in the Canadian sub-Arctic. In an exceedingly remote location that until very recently had almost no useful internet.

        At this time of the year the temperatures are usually between -40 to -55 degC.

        So far this year they have been in the range -20 to -35 degC.

        So that messes with the idea of only 4 – 6 degC of warming.

        Cheers

        RL

        • lprent 7.1.1.1

          Not really. 4-6C is a nominal average across the globe. Like all averages you have to treat it with caution.

          The subpolar regions were always the areas that would get the largest increases in temperatures, just as the Antarctic peninsula throughout the 20th and up did up until the last decade. The northern polar regions don’t have nearly as much ice as the south, and while the north is getting heat waves, the south hasn’t shifted significantly to date.

          The massive bulk of the world hasn’t had significiant increases, just a few areas and mainly the cool rather than really cold ones.

          To me, in your terms, you are equating a chaotic bed flow and trying to say that a laminar flow will be the same.

          But the down latitude effects of the curent northern subpolar and polar changes (probably el nino related) into eurasia and north americia are going to be interesting to watch over the next 4-5 years. I suspect that each time they get a shift like that in the land ridden north, then the effects are persistent until the next event.

          • RedLogix 7.1.1.1.1

            Yes I realise I was taking a bit of a shortcut there. The sub-polar regions were always going to warm more than anywhere else; but here we are already at the predicted upper limit of that increased warming for these regions, and the real impact of all that excess carbon has yet to hit.

            Just in case anyone reading your links was imagining that the 15-20 degC above normal sub-polar temperatures were somehow hypothetical, or too far away … well they are not. I can step outside right now and it’s my lived experience.

            • lprent 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Yeah I know. 🙂 15-20C at the sub-polar regions and even up as far as the actual north pole

              But the predictive models at any more detail than some kind of a black-body are about as good as the geological data we have. We simply don’t have a lot of data about how things shift except at a “average over a century” kind of level. That is what the geological record shows. So the models aren’t bad averaging over a few decades, but totally useless at less than a decade.

              For instance, the Antarctica peninsula is a good case in point. It kept exceeding the models expectations for temperatures increases and ice retreat for decades. Now ..

              https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/20/antarctic-peninsula-temperatures-have-fallen-study-shows

              The tip of the Antarctic peninsula has cooled over the past 15 years, scientists have found, but the discovery does not mean global warming has stopped.

              Researchers analysed air temperature data from the area, which covers about 1% of the continent, and found it had warmed quickly from the 1920s until the late 1990s, as climate change drove up global temperatures. Since then, temperatures have fallen.

              The scientists said the change is related to local changes in wind patterns, partly driven by the recovery of the ozone hole. If carbon emissions continue to rise at the current rate, they expect temperatures on the peninsula to rise by several degrees by 2100.

              Of course the sea temperatures are still killing calving ice sheets. But since you as likely to go swimming there as you are where you are, you aren’t as likely to notice that as you are to notice a slushy mud underfoot.

              Air isn’t nearly as hard to change temperatures as water is. And air can and will change drastically over a diurnal cycle through to even a yearly cycle. But it isn’t that useful as a predictor of future events unless you see it doing something for a reasonably long period of time.

        • greywarshark 7.1.1.2

          Hi Red Logix
          You are at the coldface! Thanks for saying hello and telling us of the facts on the spot.

      • jimekus 7.1.2

        Methane only stays in the water given sufficient depth. The depth that warm surface water mixes down below to already warm water to reach the 50m sea floor on the The East Siberian Arctic Shelf depends on wave height which in turn depends on wind going from hot to cold areas. These recent waves in turn destroyed lots of ice. Even on the tundra a couple of years ago the plumes were tens of meters wide and then went to kilometers wide and Guy McPherson has been saying in 2016 they are now hundreds of kilometers wide.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.1.3

        What you should be looking at is the problem with methane escaping the water column.

        You mean like this?

        “It has recently been documented that a tongue of relatively warm Atlantic water, with a core at depths of 200-600 [meters] may have warmed up some in recent years,” Gustafsson explained. “As this Atlantic water, the last remnants of the Gulf Stream, propagates eastward along the upper slope of the East Siberian margin, our SWERUS-C3 program is hypothesizing that this heating may lead to destabilization of upper portion of the slope methane hydrates. This may be what we now for the first time are observing.”

        The researchers are quick to point out that they are just a few weeks into their work, and this is a very much speculation. However, the very fact that these plumes are there is worrying enough.

        And this?

        While scientists believe that global warming will release methane from gas hydrates worldwide, most of the current focus has been on deposits in the Arctic. This paper estimates that from 1970 to 2013, some 4 million metric tons of methane has been released from hydrate decomposition off Washington. That’s an amount each year equal to the methane from natural gas released in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout off the coast of Louisiana, and 500 times the rate at which methane is naturally released from the seafloor.

        “Methane hydrates are a very large and fragile reservoir of carbon that can be released if temperatures change,” Solomon said. “I was skeptical at first, but when we looked at the amounts, it’s significant.”

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.1

          Also, current amounts of atmospheric methane generates warming that is approx equal to having an extra 50 ppm of CO2.

  8. Pat 8

    interesting you should outline a realistic scenario of 5-6degC average warming by century end and continue on to unrealistically conclude humans and society will continue to function in that environment (hell they barely function now)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees:_Our_Future_on_a_Hotter_Planet

    the habitability zones in the graphic to the side make interesting viewing…..in as far as I have seen no serious climate research team has suggested 6 degree average warming will be anything other than an unmitigated disaster, not some drawn out inconvenience such as you describe. Indeed you note the current 15-20 deg artic warming on the back of less than a 1.5deg average increase …..you may wish to consider what occured the last time the poles were 30deg warmer.

    • lprent 8.1

      It will be an unmitigated disaster.

      However in human terms it will be a very long and long drawn out one. What that means is that it will cause a lot of failed industries and areas as climate pushes changes to long established practices.

      However, we have had a history of exactly that over the last five centuries as technologies changed and we carted diseases and species over the globe.

      Have you run across any buggy whip manufacturers or craftsmen creating chinese clogs recently? In the west, there are few jobs that are even remotely similar to those that were present in 1815 or 1850 or even 1900. These days there are few places in the world that are operating societies as they were even as recently as 1917.

      Humans are highly adaptive. So are the ecologic systems that we establish around us.

      We haven’t had as much time to observe natural systems in climate driven transition purely because the last 10,000 years have been remarkably settled climatically until now. But the genes of most species are ancient and highly adaptive to disaster that make the upcoming ones look like a picnic.

      I haven’t read his book, however I suspect that a journalist and environment activist who “…holds a degree in history and politics from the University of Edinburgh…” is about as useful in understanding the phase shifts of methane hydrate as most journalists -> it is good for a shocking headline.

      If you are going to put in a link, then FFS put in one that is worth reading.

      Like this one.
      http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21712066-sequoias-outsized-role-americas-environmental-history-climbing-worlds

      What was interesting about that rather nicely written piece was the descriptions of the adaptions that the sequoias have to environmental conditions that are currently rare. I dug around after I read it and found some pretty good papers about them that were even more interesting. It looks they can handle most of the environmental changes of the last 30 million years with ease and they stick around the rockies because they is where they get a drink

      • Pat 8.1.1

        “If you are going to put in a link, then FFS put in one that is worth reading”

        the Royal Society that awarded the 2008 Science Writers award don’t appear to agree with your view of his ability to assess the relevant research…but what the hell, belittling unread is easy, eh?

        • lprent 8.1.1.1

          Yeah? I tend to find that science writers who actually have science degrees usually are more competent.

          Which is why the prize that he won was for “…the aim of encouraging the writing, publishing and reading of good and accessible popular science books”.

          I guess that actually knowing some of basics of the science involved means that I’m not his target audience.

          • Pat 8.1.1.1.1

            “I guess that actually knowing some of basics of the science involved means that I’m not his target audience.’

            and yet you promoted this?…..http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21712066-sequoias-outsized-role-americas-environmental-history-climbing-worlds

            with the comment…”It looks they can handle most of the environmental changes of the last 30 million years with ease and they stick around the rockies because they is where they get a drink” …as if it were relevant when the article itself clearly states….
            “With such advantages, the sequoias are playing only a minor role in a third great public debate, over climate change. Even as the pines succumb to beetles and the firs go up in smoke, the giants look able to endure—at least for a while. Yet there will be a limit to that. Sequoias need vast quantities of water; Mr Ambrose and Ms Baxter calculate they use more than two tonnes a day in summertime. And there are multiple indicators, including drought, dieback, shrinkage of the Sierra Nevada’s snowpack and a slight retreat of the sequoia’s southern range, to suggest such volumes could soon be unavailable to them. “I worry about them. I worry about them a lot,” said Mr Ambrose, working deftly to dismantle his scientific rig from the very top of Munz, while being peppered with journalistic questions from a neighbouring branch.”

            as timescales were a feature of your original post perhaps you may wish to consider the following…
            “Mammals survived Eocene temperatures; this is when early primates appeared. Some horses, however, shrank to the size of house cats, adjusting through evolution to a diet altered either by heat or carbon. Today’s organisms and ecosystems may not be able to adapt to warming over the next 200 to 300 years—an instant on the geological time scale, says Scott Wing, the Smithsonian Institution’s curator of fossil plants.”

            http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/05/160523-climate-change-study-eight-degrees/

            You may also wish to consider the conservative nature of the scientific reports…..4 years ago Larsen C was predicted by the leading scientists studying it that its collapse was likely but not for some 2-300 hundred years due to its size and consequent melt time…

            http://www.ibtimes.com/huge-chunks-antarcticas-fourth-largest-ice-shelf-larsen-c-could-soon-collapse-2405622

            Larsen B took 2 weeks to collapse

            Yes undeniably your superior scientific knowledge outstrips even that of those studying these impacts and we have plenty of time and will adapt….never mind that we have numerous examples of failed states even without the likely stressors we will see in our own lifetimes…..all good then.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Currently the Earth is warming around 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than most species can successfully adapt to.

              A 4 to 6 deg C temp change should take place over the course of several hundred thousand or several million years.

              Not over 100 years.

              Some seem to think that Homo Sapiens are going to be the exception to this rule and that most, though not all, of us will get through it relatively fine.

              I have my doubts.

  9. Red 9

    Thanks LPrent, great to read something on a difficult topic without the dooms day, the end is nigh and political hyperbole but with a level of gravitas supported by evidence that there are serious issues ahead I think climate change debate been rolled into the whole left and right debate, it’s all neoliberalism, JK, West vs East fault etc etc is half the problem in regard to getting people to respond rationally to it, collectively and transcending political persuasion. maybe living in a dream world on this however

    • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1

      🙄

      *cough*

    • Andre 9.2

      Something I find immensely frustrating about New Zealand’s (lack of) response to climate change is that eliminating most of our fossil fuel use over a reasonable time frame would actual be quite an economic boost. That has to appeal across the political spectrum. It would just be a painful hit to established big players, who have frankly had a pretty good ride for a long time.

      I fail to see how it’s in New Zealand’s interest to send billions of dollars overseas every year to buy oil, when some of that energy could come from renewable electricity.

      Building new wind, geothermal, pumped hydro storage plants to allow closing Huntly and other fossil stations is an obvious economic boost. As a bonus, developing expertise here could lead to export industries, as I seem to recall one of the electricity was selling geothermal expertise overseas.

      The list goes on and on… But instead we’re doing things like replacing Kiwirail electric locomotive with diesel, Nova energy is trying to build a new natural gas power station in the Waikato, among many other steps in the wrong direction.

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1

        Something I find immensely frustrating about New Zealand’s (lack of) response to climate change is that eliminating most of our fossil fuel use over a reasonable time frame would actual be quite an economic boost. That has to appeal across the political spectrum.

        Neither the Green Party nor Labour is going to set any serious short to medium term (5 to 10 year) milestones around this.

        Irrelevant milestones for the 2040s, 2050s and 2060s that no current politician will ever be held accountable for, sure.

        • Clump_AKA Sam 9.2.1.1

          God forbid that a western political party actually has a manufacturing or jobs policy. The free market would go into WTF mode, and say, Neo-brats do it better

          • Colonial Viper 9.2.1.1.1

            God forbid that a western political party actually has a manufacturing or jobs policy.

            Trump has and he got voted in on it. Having said that, to more precisely address your point, the Republican PARTY establishment clearly does not.

            So you are probably still right.

          • Draco T Bastard 9.2.1.1.2

            A jobs policy is great idea.

            Jobs tearing down fossil generation and replacing it with renewable generation.
            Jobs from recycling all of the private motor vehicles after we’ve banned them and the increase in jobs from the boosted public transport.
            Jobs in R&D as we look into sustainable ways to live.

            Yep. A jobs policy is great – as long as it’s the right jobs.

            • Clump_AKA Sam 9.2.1.1.2.1

              Western democracies can’t do long term planning because communism. In New Zealand we have this kind of knee jerk, reactionary style of planning. We couldn’t possibly do what China does and have 5 year economic plans that every one works towards.

              I have little faith in mainstream to change because they’ve drunk far to much cool aid. If you strip out everything from all mainstream textbooks, you’re left with a sentence that says capital accumulates. Which is just a theory.

              It’s not just a theory it’s a religious belief held by mainstream. Now we are trying to boost everything that we’ve suppressed or destroyed (with capitalism???)

              All capitalism was used for is to say capitalism is better than communism and to destroy unions. If we are going to have real change its going to come from students who create the society they want.

              • Colonial Viper

                If we are going to have real change its going to come from students who create the society they want.

                I guess that’s a nice idea, but there’s no way that will change anything in time.

                The fifty plus year old leadership class has to get onboard NOW. (Not saying there is any likelihood that will actually happen).

                Eighteen and nineteen year olds have no political power or financial capital to do fuck all. And by the time they do it will be the 2040s.

  10. Colonial Viper 10

    We’ve just had the two warmest Novembers globally in 2015 and 2016. (2015 was marginally warmer than 2016).

    El Nino is no longer a warming influence now relative to Nov 2015 when it was much stronger.

    And yet we are still sitting at warmest ever levels.

    • lprent 10.1

      How fast do warm air masses move? How fast do warm water masses move? It takes a while for a large amount of heat or cold to disperse and dissipate.

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.1

        Quantitatively, the Oceanic Nino Index which tracks variations in Pacific ocean surface temperatures went from a decadal high around Dec 2015 to firmly crossing into a cooler La Nina-like temperature range by August of 2016.

        It would be reasonable to suggest that the Nov 2015 global temperature record high was boosted in part by the strong El Nino ocean temperatures at the time.

        However the Nov 2016 global temp was almost as high as the record breaking Nov 2015 a year earlier. BUT this time ocean temps as tracked by the ONI were almost 3 deg C lower than a year earlier.

        http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

        http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

  11. Draco T Bastard 11

    Living on an high latitude ocean island with temperature buffering water around us as we do in NZ is just about optimal. But it is hard to see how humans can live with the kinds of temperatures and climate that I’m expecting in the inland tropics. We’re on track for an average 4-6C increase worldwide in the next 100 years (as far as I can see there is nothing to prevent it – se my last paragraph).

    Yep. Which is pretty much why I’m saying that NZ will be closing our borders in the next decade or so. We simply cannot afford the millions that will be trying to get here.

    I know that there’s a lot of people that will say that we have to help them and take them in but we really can’t afford to. That’s real economics based upon real physics and, no, there are no technological fixes for it either.

  12. Paul Campbell 12

    So a totally dumb question … Why don’t we all rise up and do something? Are we all just frogs being brought to a nice summer?

    • Draco T Bastard 12.1

      Most of us in the West are actually too comfortable and simply see neither a way to change nor a reason to – yet.

  13. adam 13

    Thanks LPrent, a good read.

    I going to say one theme common in most of the science fiction I’ve been reading of late, is this is the end of a ‘golden age’. In quite a similar way you have written about, things are going to get tough. How tough, we could debate over and all get quite grumpy, but there is truly little point.

    On a gardening point, my tomatoes have got hammered by the new flying aphid, and the disease it is spreading. One of the new life forms appearing to adapt to warmer world, so people should drop the world is ending argument – the world will go on, even if we humans don’t.

  14. Macro 14

    The current rate of warming is around 0.7 Degrees C per century. That’s roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of ice-age recovery warming in the paleo- past.
    Taking the most recent year into account increases the rate to around 0.73 Degrees Per Century.
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php
    Next year is expected to be a lower temperature (around 3rd highest recorded temp) than the last 3 record years which have been boosted by the strongest El Nino in 18 years, as the ENSO cycle moves to La Nina and the Pacific returns to acting as a heat sink rather than a heat source.
    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/looking-ahead-to-2017-what-to-watch-for-weather-and-climatewise


    There is no question that warming will continue and that we hitting a tipping point especially in the Arctic.
    https://twitter.com/chriscmooney?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
    Just what the average surface temp will be by the end of the Century is any ones guess. As for sea level rise, the rate over the past century has been 17 mm per decade. However, the current rate is around 33 mm per decade, and increasing ( the recent dip in the chart is due to higher rainfall on drought affected land, and increased snowfall from moisture saturated air in Antarctica – as airtemps increase by 1 degree C the water content of the air can increase by 4%)
    http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
    SLR lags behind temp rise, but having said that there is evidence from paleo studies that it can be quite rapid as ice sheets collapse. I have linked above to research of one Greenland Ice sheet that is particularly unstable, and by itself could result in 1 ft of sea level rise. As for the Larsen Ice sheets they are also unstable and could well collapse rapidly.
    I am currently reading Dr Dale Jamieson’s book”Reason In A Dark Time Why the struggle against Climate Change Failed and what it means for our Future. Dale Jamieson is a philosopher and a realist. Lord Stern sums the book up thus:

    He argues that we are heading down a dangerous road and will likely have to face a much more difficult world. But he also argues that there is so much we can do individually and collectively to make a difference, and warns the best must not be the enemy of the good. This is a very thoughtful and valuable book and should be read by all those who would wish to bring reason to a defining challenge of our century

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      The current rate of warming is around 0.7 Degrees C per century.

      check out what the rate of warming has been over the last 30 years. You’re going to find that we’ve risen more than 0.2 deg C globally in that time, which is what your rate of 0.7 deg C/century suggests.

  15. Mike Bowler 15

    Got to say, Lprent, this thread is a pleasure. Mainly due to the strict rules you laid down at the start.
    I’ve become increasingly disenchanted with The Standard of late because of the dominance of the trolls and those who seek to combat them.
    Cheers to all and a happy New Year.

  16. Macro 16

    I was going to post this on another Post, “The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising: Untangling the Triggers of the
    Revolution” Francesca de Châtel. Published online: 27 Jan 2014, but I think it is as Pertinent here – particularly in the context of just how we manage our future and what are likely to some of the challenges that humanity will face in the future.
    https://blogs.commons.georgetown.edu/rochelledavis/files/francesca-de-chatel-drought-in-syria.pdf

    As in other Arab countries, the uprising in Syria was triggered by a series of social, economic and political factors, including, in this case, growing poverty caused by rapid economic liberalization and the cancellation of state subsidies after 2005, a
    growing rural–urban divide, widespread corruption, rising unemployment, the
    effects of a severe drought between 2006 and 2010 and a lack of political freedom.
    More recently, media and analysts have also suggested that climate change plays an indirect role in the Arab Spring and the Syrian uprising

    My bold.
    In the aftermath of such a drought people want to know if such an extreme event was caused by Climate Change. However these are bad questions to ask and no answer can be given that is not misleading. It is like asking if Kane Wiliamson hits a ton in a test innings if this is caused by his batting average being 49.44. One cannot say “yes” but on the other hand saying “no” falsely suggests that there is no relationship between his most current innings and his batting average. The best that can be done is to give a probability that climate change may have contributed to the event. In the above example of the severe drought of 2006 thru 2010 which lead to a famine and a horrendous rise in basic food prices in the Middle East, It has been assessed that the the event was 2 to 3 times more likely to occur as a result of AGW.

    Basically the effects of Global Warming are here and now – and they are only going to exacerbate, not ameliorate, in the future.

    • Clump_AKA Sam 16.1

      500 years after Alexandre the Great, you use to be able to sail from the Caspian Sea to Afgahnistans Ox river, now the Ox river disappears into irrigation systems not far from where it starts. Now Kazakhstan is trying to expand this irrigation system. But to be honest, if it feeds there people, I’m not going to criticise. I’d prefer to pay a bit extra taxes so we can distribute cash to where we want it to make a difference

    • Jenny 16.2

      As in other Arab countries, the uprising in Syria was triggered by a series of social, economic and political factors, including, in this case, growing poverty caused by rapid economic liberalization and the cancellation of state subsidies after 2005, a
      growing rural–urban divide, widespread corruption, rising unemployment, the
      effects of a severe drought between 2006 and 2010 and a lack of political freedom.
      More recently, media and analysts have also suggested that climate change plays an indirect role in the Arab Spring and the Syrian uprising
      My bold.

      Macro @16

      My Goodness Macro. Golly Gosh. Could it be true? And we have been told so often and at great length that it was all a long laid out plan of regime change, by the Western powers and foreign invaders. Nothing at all to do with crop failure drought and neo-liberal austerity imposed on the local population.

      (Sorry Lynne, couldn’t resist)

  17. Jenny 17

    “I can’t seen any political way of actually substantially reducing the rate of fossil carbon release in the next few decades.

    LPRENT

    Firstly my apologies if it has been mentioned before, (I haven’t had time to read the thread, but I will for such an important topic), one suggested “political way” to fight climate change is the World War II solution. ie Rapid Global Mobilisation of a size and scale and speed, similar to that achieved to successfully wage the war on fascism.

    This “political” solution has the utility of already having been achieved.

    And also the hindsight benefit of how it was achieved.

    The first lesson of history;

    The United Nations like its predecessor the League of Nations will fail.

    Just as now, as was then, multinational organisations and conventions failed.

    Just as now, as was then, endless rounds of high profile meetings by world leaders and politicians, despite achieveing consensus and delivering high sounding resolutions and issuing dire warnings, little else was achieved.

    (A process we are seeing being repeated).

    What really set the world in action to mobilise globally was when one sole country acting unilaterally set the pace.

    And this is how it will be done again.

    (and in fact is how all global political change is achieved)

    In lieu of any other country mobilising on the scale necessary to catch the world’s attention and give a lead.

    I have argued that New Zealand is well placed to be that global leader.

    (We have taken this role before, universal suffrage, the welfare state, anti-nuclear, anti-apartheid)

    Lynne writes; “Living on an high latitude ocean island with temperature buffering water around us as we do in NZ is just about optimal.”

    In my opinion this favoured optimal status ,where we of all humanity will be the least negatively affected, gives us a moral imperative to act.

    So how should we go about it?

    Lynne Prentice has made a start with the first post on the first day of the year.

    We need to carry on this iniative and make the 2017 a climate change year.

    In this year we need to make climate change an election issue.

    How do we do that?

    The first thing we need to do is to get rid of the National Government Labour Party consensus on deep sea oil drilling. This is vitally necessary step, so as to create a point of difference between the opposition and the government, which can then be argued out on the hustings and in the TV debates.

    It is my opinion that this single issue and point of difference between the opposition parties and the government will carry the day for the opposition parties. The arguments for taking action on climate change are irrefutable.

    Polls indicate that 80% of the population are opposed to deep sea oil drilling. Polls also indicate that over 50% want the government to do more on climate change.

    These are big figures, much bigger than the percentages that the opposition currently hold.

    Remember leadership is the key.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10822510

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/01/shane_jones_wins_the_battle_over_oil_drilling_in_labour.html

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0709/S00227.htm

  18. Jenny 18

    I have read a lot of stuff on climate change, and the above treatise LPRENT is in my opinion one of the best. Concise accurate undramatic knowledgable technical.

    But what can technicians and problem solvers do about climate change?

    Obviously a lot and at the same time very little, because climate change is primarily a political problem not a technical one.

    http://worrydream.com/ClimateChange/

    “People say “this is a Manhattan Project, this an Apollo Project”. Sorry, those are science projects. Fusion is a Manhattan Project or an Apollo Project… The rest of this is more like retooling for World War II, except with everyone playing on the same team.”

    Saul Griffith,
    on converting the world to clean energy

    “This has not been a scientist’s war; it has been a war in which all have had a part.”

    Vannevar Bush,
    on World War II

    Climate change is the problem of our time, it’s everyone’s problem, and most of our problem-solvers are assuming that someone else will solve it.
    I’m grateful to one problem-solver, who wrote to ask for specifics —

    “How do you think the tech community (startup community, or any community) can contribute to tech and/or policy solutions on a global scale?”

    the scale and rate of change required is often unappreciated. Saul Griffith has a good bit about this, suggesting that what’s needed is not throwing up a few solar panels, but a major industrial shift comparable to retooling for World War II.
    In 1940 through 1942, U.S. war-related industrial production tripled each year. That’s over twice as fast as Moore’s law.

    In order to avoid the more catastrophic climate scenarios, global production and adoption of clean energy technology will have to scale at similar rates — but continuously for 15 years or more.
    The catalyst for such a scale-up will necessarily be political. But even with political will, it can’t happen without technology that’s capable of scaling, and economically viable at scale.
    As technologists, that’s where we come in.

    But to create that missing political will.
    As political activists that’s where we come in.

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    Just a month ago we saw the biggest protest in a generation as people marched to demand stronger action on climate change. A core demand of the protesters was to strengthen the Zero Carbon Bill's target to net-zero by 2040. So what is the government's response? Judging by the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Zombie ants, updated
    Back in 2010, I wrote about the strange tale of the zombie ants, which do the bidding of their fungal overlords. (They’re not an isolated example; a range of parasites change their hosts’ behaviour. See here and here for example – though as you’ll find, the toxoplasmosis story may be ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 days ago
  • Paying For Our Pakeha “Guilt” And “Privilege”.
    Shouldn't That Be: "Wrong White Crowd"? Rather than apportion guilt, would it not have been wiser for the makers of Land Of The Long White Cloud to accept that the Pakeha of 2019 are not – and never will be – “Europeans”? Just as contemporary Maori are not – and ...
    2 days ago
  • A Bodyguard of Truths.
    One, Two, Many Truths: With the collapse of “actually existing socialism” in 1991, the universities of the West found themselves saddled with a new mission. With their ideological competitors now soundly defeated they were no longer required to demonstrate the superiority of capitalist values. Their job now was to cement ...
    2 days ago
  • A call to unionists
    by the Council of Disobedient Women   We call on the Council of Trade Unions to show some fortitude and take a stand with your sisters. Unionists know that there is a material world, otherwise workers could simply identify out of poverty. They could declare themselves Well Paid. Why stop ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Sophistry and bullshit
    I spent some time reading the Regulatory Impact Statement and Bill of Rights Act advice for the government's odious control order scheme today. I am not impressed with either of them. Starting with the RIS, it is built on some pretty questionable assumptions. For example:Unless individuals have been convicted of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • I’m so fly, I’m #NoFly!
    #NoFly: Walking the talk on climate change, by Shaun Hendy. BWB Texts, 2019. Reviewed by Robert McLachlan In June 2018, Swede Maja Rosén founded We stay on the ground with a pledge not to fly in 2019, and a goal of persuading 100,000 other Swedes to join her. In August, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • Punishing the young
    We all know that NZ First is a party of and for old people who hate the young. But they've topped their previous pedophobia with a proposal that all young people be forced to do 100 hours community work:NZ First wants all young people to do 100 hours of community ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Journalism, clickbait, & ideas of classical beauty – but not science
    A couple days ago the NZ Herald published a story with the headline, “Science says Bella Hadid is world’s most beautiful woman“, and followed up with the ridiculous statement that Supermodel Bella Hadid has been declared as the world’s most beautiful woman following a scientific study into what constitutes as ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    3 days ago
  • Is Simon’s Smile Sustainable?
    A Sustainable Proposition: With as much as 18 percent of the electorate declaring itself “undecided” about who to vote for, there is obviously plenty of space for a party like former Green Party member, Vernon Tava's, about-to-be-launched "Sustainable NZ Party" to move into. The most hospitable political territory for such ...
    3 days ago
  • What the actual Hell?
    Keir Starmer has hinted that Labour might vote in favour of the Johnson government's shoddy deal, with the proviso that a second referendum is attached:Speaking to BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, he said: “We will see what that looks like but it makes sense to say that by whatever ...
    3 days ago
  • Hard News: Dealer’s Choice, an oral history from Planet 1994
    In 1994, I was the editor for an issue of Planet magazine focused on cannabis, its culture and the prospects for the end of its prohibition. Part of that issue was an interview with 'Ringo', an experienced cannabis dealer.I recently posted my essay from that issue, and I figured it ...
    5 days ago
  • The invasion of women’s sports by men: some facts
    Dr Helen Waite, sports sociologist and former elite athlete, on the invasion of women’s sport by men and the anti-scientific and misogynist ideology used to rationalise it.   ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Remainers starting to sound like fascists
    As Brexit comes to a grisly conclusion (perhaps) people on all sides are saying intemperate and uwise things.  Some, like the Daly Mail, have been doing it for years.People as normally level headed as Jon Lansman are calling for automatic deselection of MPs who vote against a (likely) Labour three ...
    5 days ago
  • Labour MPs supporting Johnson’s turd-sandwich deal?
    I find this unbelievable:
    I've got one source saying more Labour MPs than expected are mulling whether to vote for the deal - including names who were not on the letter to Juncker and Tusk— Emilio Casalicchio (@e_casalicchio) 17 October 2019 I've compiled a list of possible reasons why Labour ...
    6 days ago
  • Why do we need control orders again?
    On Wednesday, the government was loudly telling us that it needed to legislate to allow it to impose "control orders" - effectively a parole regime, but imposed without charge, prosecution, conviction or real evidence - on suspected terrorists because they couldn't be prosecuted for their supposed crimes. Today, it turns ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Bullshitting the Minister
    On Monday, the Hit and Run inquiry heard from NZDF's former director of special operations, who claimed that the defence Minister knew everything about the Operation Burnham raid. Today, the inquiry heard from that (former) Minister - and it turns out that he didn't know nearly as much as NZDF ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Speaker: Extinction Rebellion is not a cult (but ecstasy for the people)
    Yoga gurus and cult leaders – I’ve seen a few. Two weeks ago, I unknowingly joined an alleged new-age cult at the Kāpiti coast, together with a giant kraken and some neatly dressed pensioners who would make any book club proud.They were among the two hundred people of all ages ...
    6 days ago
  • We need to bring the police under control
    The last decade has seen a trend of increasing weapons availability to police. Assault rifles. Tasers on every hip. Guns in cars. And following the march 15 massacre, pistols on every hip, all over the country. At the same time, its also seen an increase in the abuse of force: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    6 days ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    6 days ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    7 days ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    7 days ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    7 days ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    7 days ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    1 week ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    1 week ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    1 week ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    1 week ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    1 week ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    2 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago

  • More homes where they are needed
    More houses for homeless New Zealanders are being opened today in Tauranga by Associate Housing Minister Kris Faafoi. Six 2-bedroom quality units are being opened at 878 Cameron Road by Minister Faafoi and Accessible Properties, a local Community Housing Provider (CHP). Accessible Properties now provides more than 1,700 community housing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    60 mins ago
  • Minister of Finance and Sport and Recreation to visit Japan and Vietnam
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson departs tomorrow for events and meetings in Japan and Vietnam.  While in Japan, he will discuss economic and fiscal issues including meeting with the Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, and Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Yasutoshi Nishimura. He will meet with the Minister of Education, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Dashboard tracks housing progress
    The Government’s Housing Dashboard released today confirms record numbers of state houses are under construction and shows the Government build programme is gaining momentum.  “After nine years of inaction, and a hands-off attitude from the previous government we’re starting to see things move in the right direction for housing,” says ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Ministerial Statement on the International Convention Centre fire
    Mr Speaker, I wish to make a ministerial statement relating to the Auckland fire. The Government is closely monitoring the situation with the fire at the NZ International Convention Centre and is thankful that everyone is now safe. Firefighters are doing an incredible job managing the fire and bringing it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Government invests in Te Reo, environmental data research
    The Government is investing in ambitious research that will digitise Te Reo, grow the low-carbon protein efficient aquaculture industry, help interpret environmental trends, and large data sets says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. The four projects range from teaching Siri to speak Te Reo to crunching large environmental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Government announces next steps as part of a comprehensive plan to fix skills gap
    A new education-to-employment brokerage service to strengthen connections between local employers and schools. Funding for more trades focused ‘speed-dating’ events to connect schools with employers. Promotional campaign to raise profile of vocational education. The Government is taking action to increase the number of young people taking up vocational education and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Corrections Amendment Bill passes third reading
    A Bill to improve prison security and ensure the fair, safe, and humane treatment of people in prison while upholding public safety has passed its third reading. Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says the Corrections Amendment Bill makes a number of changes to ensure the Corrections Act 2004 is fit for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Ngāi Tahu CEO appointed to NZ-China Council
    Minister for Māori Development, Nanaia Mahuta, has selected Arihia Bennett MNZM, Chief Executive Officer of Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, as the Te Puni Kōkiri appointed representative on the New Zealand-China Council. The New Zealand-China Council (the Council) was established in 2012 as a New Zealand led and funded organisation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Southern Response claims move to EQC
    Responsibility for processing the small number of Southern Response claims still to be settled will be transferred to EQC by the end of the year. “As claim numbers reduce, it no longer makes sense for the Crown to have two organisations processing the remaining Canterbury claims,” Grant Robertson says. “Since ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Bowel screening starts in Whanganui
    Health Minister David Clark is encouraging Whanganui residents to take up the opportunity for free bowel screening, which can detect cancer early when it’s easier to treat.   Over the next two years 12,000 Whanganui locals, aged 60 to 74 will be invited to participate in the National Bowel Screening ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures Conference: Connection...
    Session 4: Pacific Connectivity – Youth, Media and New Opportunities   Kia ora tatou katoa and Warm Pacific greetings to one and all. Representatives of Tainui, the local people of the land, or manawhenua – the indigenous peoples of this area – have welcomed you this morning in accordance with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
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