Mana by-election results
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7:00 pm, November 20th, 2010 - 46 comments
Categories: by-election, democratic participation -
Tags: mana by-election
The polls are now closed in Mana and the results should start following in soon. Hopefully, various writers will be able to give updates as the night goes on. If you voted today or you were on the ground getting out the vote today, we’d love to hear your comments.
Update 1: It’s an early lead for Fa’afoi. With only 2 booths (4.5%) in, it’s Fa’afoi-1264, Parata-918.
Update 2: 15 polling booths in (34.1%). Fa’afoi-3682, Parata-3163. A majority of 519.
Update 3: Looks like the Labour booths are coming in. Total 43.2%. Fa’afoi-5166, Parata-3576. Majority of 1590.
Update 4: It’s clear Kris Fa’afoi will be the next Labour MP for Mana. With 65.9% of votes in, Fa’afoi-7357, Parata-5311. Current majority 2046.
Final update: With all booths counted. Fa’afoi-10397, Parata-9317. Majority 1080.
McCarten hardly featured on 816.
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Early lead to Fa’afoi but not by much:
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-21.html
He’s 346 ahead of Parata with 2.476 votes counted (4.5%) of polling places counted.
Hi Carol – it’s one hell of a lot better than being 346 behind Parata – I know it’s easy to say from the Jaffa area, but go Kris, I’m watching the results.
After Labour win of course but had to be pretty impressed by Greens Jan Logie who approached this, from what I saw, with some real thoughts and ideas and quite clear policies and principles.
Clear policies? LOL are you taking the piss. She sounded wishy-washy and didn’t seem to have a clue what she was talking about.
I do love that so far the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis candidate is ahead of the Act party
Will somebody please, please tell the candidates that this is not a night for triumphalism or spin.
Watching Hekia Parata and Kris Fa’afoi on the TV news tonight, they were both on candidate auto-pilot, all bright and cheery. It was jarring, not good at all.
When the result is announced, the winner (presumably Kris) should make the shortest and most sombre speech of the campaign … “I am grateful to the people of Mana and I hope to be worthy of the trust they have placed in me. But at this time, our thoughts are with the miners and their families … ‘ etc.
And then just walk off the stage. End. Nothing else needs to be said now.
And they should say that tomorrow they are starting work.
Really? Because tragedy happens in the world every single second. Should we all be miserable and go cry in our rooms because something utterly horrible is happening. And it is horrible. But really…I’m sure the celebration will be tempered with the pull of the tragedy but a sombre speech, really?
Tragedy happens in the world every second, but it doesn’t happen to us every second.
L
2 polling places is mostly comprised of the advance votes (ordinary votes before today)
So looking solid. Of course that will not prevent Darn Pretty Fellow delivered his comedy pitch, Saturday Night Spin.
I wish the bureaucrats would get http://www.electionresults.org.nz fixed PDQ
My thoughts too.
Oops… my thoughts are the same as gobsmacked. I expect the victory celebrations to be muted and respectful. Any thing else will be disappointing.
Go Kris!! 1500 margin with 48% of booths counted. And the big Porirua votes to come in.
Winnie Laban had a 7,000 majority in 2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mana_%28New_Zealand_electorate%29#2008_election
Fa’afoi is stretching his lead with each new result (he now leads by 1500, with nearly 50% of booths counted), but what would be a good result for Labour,…. and from National’s point of view?
Real numbers are rather pointless since By-elections get much lower turnout. From my bias point of view I’d like to see Parata get a higher percentage than what she got against Laban and a higher percentage than National’s party vote in 2008. That would mean above 37%.
For Labour it’d be bad if Fa’afoi got below 50% of the vote and dire if below the party vote of 43%. Neither is happening at this stage and with McCarten as a candidate I would have though getting below 50% would be highly probable
And at 63% of the vote in Parata is on the cusp of being below 37% whilst Fa’afoi is above 51%. Labour clearly got their local resources out considering how well they’re doing with two left-wing candidates and National as with Mt. Albert clearly aren’t using their resources well since they should be performing better than the results are saying so far.
7,000 majority on turnout of around 34K.
So far it’s about 1900 majority on 14K…
A result that was expected for Labour, and Faafoi must be duly congratulated.
Heres hoping that he is exceeds expectations as MP.
As for Matt – looks like he only got himself 111 votes so far – he bombed really, probably should have kept out of it with hindsight..
2000 vote lead, with two thirds counted. The hippies still lead ACT 78 – 71, maaaan.
Win or loss for Mana will not change the Govt.
Imagine if all of the money spent on this by-election had have been used for something constructive like senior voters medical care.
Winnie just moved from one Public Servant job to another, the taxpayer still pays for her sucking at the trough.
Labour seem to like spending my money and jump ship
“Imagine if all of the money spent on this by-election had have been used for something constructive like senior voters medical care”
Who decides how that money is spent, if we don’t have elections?
I suppose Brownlee could, idiots like you are obviously all in favour of dictatorships.
As for the taxpayer paying for Laban… it’s a shame the taxpayers’ money spent on your education was such a waste of our collective money, but hey, we had to try. Win some, and in your case, lose some.
Ok at 84.1% of the vote in things are looking brighter on the prospects I made earlier. Though could be some left-wing booths to come in.
Tightening up now though innit.
Aye
Should Labour rely in parachuting candidates in?
Final:
Electorate Number: 21 Final: Yes
Polling Places Counted: 44 of 44 (100.0%) Votes Counted: 22,387
Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places: 0 Special Votes: 1,352
Leading Candidate: FAAFOI, Kris (LAB) Majority: 1,080
Candidates
BUCHANAN, Kelly ALL 37
CRAWFORD, Julian Lloyd ALCP 107
DU PLESSIS, Colin ACT 132
FAAFOI, Kris LAB 10,397
FITZPATRICK, Sean LIB 43
LOGIE, Jan GP 1,493
McCARTEN, Matt IND 816
PARATA, Hekia NAT 9,317
Calling it slightly bad for Labour but Fa’afoi still got in and that’s all that matters.
Labour fought an uninspiring camapign, achieved an uninspiring result.
Next stop: Botany, with the roles reversed.
Yep, ginge, this is how they should have done it:
http://www.salon.com/life/broadsheet/2010/11/19/orgasm_vote
Priceless …
mmm…pretty uninteresting result really. Bit of a bugger to see the Labour vote <50%, doesn't make it over 50 even if you split McCartens vote between labour & the greens.
Green vote isn't anything to write home about either unfortunately, no more than in 2008. Unfortunate for Matt McCarten as well, any hopes of creating a 'new left' party are probably pretty buggered right now.
Totally agreed with gobsmacked earlier, I doubt anybody is really at all interested in a by-election with the mining tragedy yesterday.
Yes 46.5% to 41.7% thats a lot closer than I was expecting.
If you add McCarten’s votes to Fa’afaoi’s = 50%.
Laban had 53% last election & Parata 34% in 2008
ACT candidate got about 1.5% less than 2008; plus United Future candidate future got 1.84% in 2008 & didn’t have a candidate this time.
The Green candidate got about the same % both times.
So Parata increased her share and Fa’afoi dropped, maybe partly due to McCarten running,
Why would you add McCarten’s votes to Faafoi’s? McCarten’s campaign appealed to those at the absolute margins — people who, by and large, don’t vote because none of the political offerings speak to them in any meaningful fashion. So McCarten’s share was most likely positive-sum, not zero-sum.
L
Agreed Selwyn but a win is a win …
If McCarten hadn’t entered the race, Faafoi’s election night margin would have been closer to 2000.
Now watch Holmes spin it on Q&A as a serious blow for Labour.
It is a serious blow for Labour. There’s no way to spin it otherwise without the partisan blinders. Mana went from being one of the safest seats in the country to being just outside the margin of error for opinion polls. Sure — you expect to lose a few with new candidate, especially one who’s shipped in from head office. But this is worse than expected, and you can’t blame Matt McCarten.
L
^^ This.
Head office picking candidates is never really a good idea IMO. Also it pays to live in the electorate before you are chosen to be the party candidate. Poor voter turn out has obviously been a problem for Labour still Labour won so thats all that matters, all the best Chris now the real work begins. Bring on Botany
Stuff says there are still 1352 special votes to be counted:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4368697/Faafoi-wins-Mana-by-election
About 22,000 votes cast. For comparison how many votes were cast in 2008?
About 34k
A desperately poor result for labour. Any media comment on these lines has to be accepted and taken on the chin, including Q and A – however I hope that they devote the programme to Pike River – the result of a by-election seems almost irrelevant.
I was in the electorate today (Porirua, Warspite Avenue) and saw some professionalism from labour volunteers. The gentleman at the house I was visiting was very ill and was not well enough to vote – the persons visiting were lovely, nice and understanding. Good work.
Good to hear Frederick.
Tim Watkin says the Spirit Level guy will be on qu & a tomorrow:
http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/the-spirit-level-reaches-nz-why-freedom-and-equality-are-kin#comments
considering the enormous resources that the Nats threw at the by-election they must have thought they had a real chance. The Labour supporters I canvassed were either sure Faafoi would win (“it’s always Labour here”) so they didn’t see the need to bother voting, or were suffering from voter fatigue after the local elections. Mana has experienced a great deal of gentrification, with people who can no longer afford to live in Wellington moving in, so it is not the caricature safe seat the lazy media presume – Whitby is one of the richest suburbs in NZ and plenty of the northern end of the electorate is not far behind it.