#milifandom! Labour are going to win the UK Election. Fact!

Written By: - Date published: 10:21 am, May 7th, 2015 - 243 comments
Categories: elections, labour, social media lolz, uk politics - Tags: ,

 

Polling opens in the British General Election this evening and close at 9am Friday (NZ time). The first results will start coming through around an hour later, though exit polling will be available immediately.

The latest polls still suggest a hung Parliament, with the Tories likely to be the largest party, with Labour close behind. Prime Minister David Cameron will have a fortnight to try and stitch together a working majority (or minority). If he can’t achieve that, and Labour can, then Ed Miliband will be the new PM, likely leading a minority Government.

In the last few days, public support for Labour has increased, with celebs such as Steve Coogan, cook Delia Smith, comedian Paul O’Grady, snooker player Ronnie O’Sullivan, actor Martin Freeman and comedian Jo Brand all urging voters to end the dismal Tory led coalition and put Miliband in No 10 Downing Street instead.

Youth enrolment is up and the Grauniad’s Owen Jones also puts a great case for voting here.

Tellingly, even Russell Brand, formerly a proponent of wilful not voting, has urged his millions of twitter and fb fans to vote Labour. Brand knows the stakes are high. His interview with Miliband on Trews has been a key moment in the campaign, adding left field credibility to the Labour leader.

And, amazingly, the hashtag milifandom is absolutely dominating social media in the UK. Ed Miliband is now sexy and it’s apparently pissing off the Murdoch media big time!

There will be live updates here on the Standard and the usual media outlets:

BBC: Election Live

The Guardian: General Election 2015

The Daily Record will have live Jockalypse updates.

Channel Four will have the most entertaining show, hosted by David Mitchell and Jeremy Paxman and featuring some of the Gogglebox regulars. Or try the Pub Landlord Al Murray’s attempt to stop Nigel Farage winning South Thanet. Hopefully UKIP will knacker the Tories, but not win many seats themselves.

I’ve seen a lot of the election ads; this may well be the best!

And, as always, God Save the Queen! Pip Pip!

243 comments on “#milifandom! Labour are going to win the UK Election. Fact! ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Ovid 1
    7 May 2015 at 10:30 am

    Ed Miliband is now sexy

    I don’t think that’s what “hung Parliament” refers to.

  2. dukeofurl 2
    7 May 2015 at 10:36 am

    Some have been saying all the attention on Scotland and its 59 seats has obscured the fact that London with 73 seats is getting redder.

    Even the area around Finchley, which was Margaret Thatchers old seat has a strong push from the labour candidate.

    This for Bill, so he can put it in his pipe and smoke it!

    “Party officials say the lessons of Arnie Graf, the American community organiser, have been absorbed. Graf visited all 106 target seats, with a message that local parties should be seen to be doing things to improve their areas even in opposition.

    ““We’ve shown how the Labour Party is not just knocking on the door at election time but is working and serving the community all year round and that has given us a way in with voters,”
    New Statesman

  3. Bill 3
    7 May 2015 at 10:40 am

    – wow – So the Scottish Daily Record has adopted the disparagingly offensive term ‘Jockalypse’ now?

    • te reo putake 3.1
      7 May 2015 at 10:53 am

      Not just the Daily Record, Bill. It’s taken on a life of it’s own:

      http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jockalypse-coming-heres-top-12-5647647

      The great thing is that far from being a winning zinger for Boris Johnson it’s been turned back on the Tories:

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-conservatives-mocked-online-over-boris-johnsons-claim-of-snp-jockalypse-10228433.html

      • dukeofurl 3.1.1
        7 May 2015 at 11:13 am

        Its not just today the result turns on Scotland.

        Back in 1951 when Attlee called an early general election ( 20 months) and lost to Churchill, the conservatives relied on separate Unionist parties In Scotland (35 seats) and Ulster (9)

        Labour was the largest party with 295 seats, and had the largest number of votes

        Conservatives won only 258 seats.

        However in parliament the Tories had a total of 321 seats with their Unionist mates and the Liberal Nationals(19 seats)

        The house of commons was then 625 members

        SNP stood in 2 seats.

        • Bill 3.1.1.1
          7 May 2015 at 11:45 am

          I suspect that 1951 result will need to be given huge amounts of oxygen by Labour and others following this election. All we’ve heard from the idiots of Scottish Labour is that the largest party forms the government…that 1923 was the last time that wasn’t the case.

          I wish I’d stop getting thoughts of Gore and Florida. Labour could capitulate, given that Miliband has more or less, and unnecessarily painted himself into a corner with regards SNP and Plaid Cymru contributions to any Labour led government.

      • Bill 3.1.2
        7 May 2015 at 11:38 am

        Hmm. Am I missing something in the difference between a trending twitter hashtag and a piece of shit terminology apparently being adopted as a headline for election coverage?

        • te reo putake 3.1.2.1
          7 May 2015 at 11:59 am

          I think you’re missing the genuine joy Boris’s blunder has been met with north of Hadrian’s wall, Bill. It’s going to be a badge of pride instead of the putdown Johnson intended. It’s a dead set sign that the Tories are scared and also that Scotland still matters despite the referendum result.

        • mac1 3.1.2.2
          7 May 2015 at 12:58 pm

          The best way to defuse and utilise a smear is to adopt it. Quakers many years ago did with their name. ‘Jockalypse’ may just return to bite Boris on his ‘borifice’. 🙂

  4. Tracey 4
    7 May 2015 at 10:40 am

    Labour will win…

    Um, not sure what definition of winnin gis being used to suggest that…

    Will be able to form a government with assistance of X and Y parties, maybe

    MMP by stealth…

  5. Sable 5
    7 May 2015 at 10:54 am

    Can anyone see any real difference between Cameron and Milliband? Fact is, it will be neo con business no matter which of them slithers into office.

  6. Kiwiri 6
    7 May 2015 at 11:18 am

    Errr all I could hear during the 26 seconds was from me saying “oh dear. oh dearr.. oh dearrr … oh dearrrr …. oh dearrrr ….”

    Anyway, all the very best SNP and Ed!

  7. higherstandard 7
    7 May 2015 at 11:36 am

    channel 4 for me…they always treat the elections with the respect they deserve.

  8. Wensleydale 8
    7 May 2015 at 11:46 am

    Hooray! So the flag changes from Blue to Red… and that’s pretty much all that changes. Nothing to see here. Move along.

  9. millsy 9
    7 May 2015 at 2:01 pm

    I still think the Tories are going to win….albeit narrowly. I dont think Miliband has done enough to win. This is probably his one chance at number 10. Chuka Ummana (shadow Business secretary) will face off against Boris in 2020.

    I hope I’m wrong though.

  10. higherstandard 10
    7 May 2015 at 2:06 pm

    “Chuka Ummana (shadow Business secretary) will face off against Boris in 2020.”

    Even by British election campaign standards i would expect those two to raise the standards of high farce to a new level.

  11. Colonial Rawshark 11
    7 May 2015 at 3:00 pm

    5 years of David Cameron austerity and warfare, and the Tory party of the 1% still have the edge in the polls. That’s all needs be said of UK Labour.

    • te reo putake 11.1
      7 May 2015 at 3:28 pm

      Weird comment, CV. Neither party have the edge in the polls, they’re both in the mid thirties, partially due to an unprecedented number of other parties being available to the voter. UKIP at 11-14% have knocked around 7-9% off the Conservatives and 2 or 3 points off both Labour and the Lib Dems, while as discussed elsewhere, the SNP have taken votes off Labour in Scotland. The rise of the Greens has also added another alternative, but like UKIP, their percentages won’t be reflected in seats won.

      Given all the alternatives, Labour have done extremely well and will be likely to be Government shortly. That’s what actually needs to be said about Labour. They’ve done a good job to be on the verge of chucking out a Tory Government after just one term, a feat last achieved in the seventies.

      • Colonial Rawshark 11.1.1
        7 May 2015 at 3:52 pm

        Weird comment, CV. either party have the edge in the polls, they’re both in the mid thirties

        I stand corrected. After 5 years of Cameron austerity, riots and warfare, Labour has done so well it is neck and neck with the Tory Party of the 1%.

    • Murray Rawshark 11.2
      8 May 2015 at 3:07 pm

      Tautoko, CR. If they were offering a real alternative, I’d expect them to be doing much better.

      • just saying 11.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 3:27 pm

        They don’t want to offer a real alternative.
        Labour is the party of the 19 percent slavishly kow-towing to the one percent.
        And the other 80 percent of us can just die. But quietly – we don’t want to upset our meritocratic betters….

        • Colonial Rawshark 11.2.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 4:05 pm

          The more precarious and indebted the “middle class” 20% feels things are getting, the more determined it seems to vote for the “sound economic management” and “safe hands” of the Tories.

          I wonder what turnout in the UK is going to come out as. Feels low to me.

  12. Anno1701 12
    7 May 2015 at 8:23 pm

    Adam Clifford, one of seven election candidates for the Class War Party, said it “represents the working class”.
    It wants to double all benefits and the state pension, and it would abolish the monarchy and public schools.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32497600

    class war,

    f**k the alternative, WE are the only alternative !

  13. Anno1701 13
    7 May 2015 at 8:27 pm

    Meet the London anarchists who are waging war on the middle classes:

    http://www.vice.com/en_uk/video/class-war?utm_source=vicetwitteruk

    • Charles 13.1
      8 May 2015 at 9:53 am

      That is brilliant!
      (he says, watching from his suburban outlook… that is more or less middle class)

      This might be more a reply for Open Mike. But to sum it up quickly, I read recently, from Left Wing sources, about a hard-done over-taxed “kiwi battler” who worked for himself six days a week and earned 150K per year. Even by leftist standards, the language has been (mis)appropriated.

  14. Skinny 14
    8 May 2015 at 9:35 am

    The smear campaign against Ed may have worked with early exit poll showing a swing back to the Tories. Let’s hope not and Clegg sides with Labour this time around. The Scottish Nationals should undo the Tories plans of retaining power one would hope.

  15. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 15
    8 May 2015 at 9:56 am

    Labour are going to win the UK Election. Fact!

    Not according to the BBC:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099

    More evidence that lefties are wrong about everything.

    • te reo putake 15.1
      8 May 2015 at 10:11 am

      Don’t crow too soon, Gormless. Reality’s liberal bias has yet to show itself!

      • higherstandard 15.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 10:17 am

        Don’t mention the word liberal………. they’re in tatters !

      • DoublePlusGood 15.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 10:51 am

        It pays not to get too far ahead of yourself and start crowing before the final count, as we have seen in NZ previously.

        • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 15.1.2.1
          8 May 2015 at 3:11 pm

          You mean: crowing by saying things like Labour are going to win the UK Election. Fact! ?

          Sound advice.

  16. greywarshark 16
    8 May 2015 at 10:07 am

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/273140/uk-poll-puts-tories-ahead
    The survey taken at polling stations across Britain, released moments after the close of voting, put the Conservatives on 316 seats and the opposition Labour Party on 239.

    The Scottish National Party (SNP) was set to win 58 seats and the centrist Liberal Democrats 10 seats in the 650-seat Westminster parliament, according to the poll, carried out for British broadcasters BBC, ITV and Sky.
    The number of seats needed to form a majority is 326.

    So 650 house needs a majority of one to decide what is the government. How weird that seems now to me in NZ. So the winning number is – 326. If Labour at 239, joined with SNP at 58 and got Lib-Dems too at 10 they would still only have 307 and Tories 316. Lib Dems would fit in nicely!

    I think that Britain might move on in the modern democratic world if proportional representation was introduced, same with the USA. Their very old fashioned, inflexible and redundant systems are destroying them.

    • te reo putake 16.1
      8 May 2015 at 10:16 am

      re: that 326, I read somewhere that because Sinn Fein don’t take up their seats, the real minimum is 323 or 324. Still don’t think either bloc is going to get there.

      • greywarshark 16.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 10:28 am

        TRP
        That’s interesting. Politics is definitely not a straight forward game. It encourages to think about sticking to computer games chasing around killing dragons, wicked queens and bad fellers with flame guns or big swords. You can build ability in a world that has some understandable rules and consequences.

        • Stuart Munro 16.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 12:37 pm

          Fantasy has a lot that could be adopted with advantage in modern politics. The Game of Thrones series for example, has a great collection of ways of dealing with inferior administrations like the current government. Jack Vance has some great variants too.

          Christopher Rowley had a regime in which people were tortured by being introduced into a room full of hypersexualised pinheads, of whom it was said “anything even vaguely mammalian was sufficient to stir them into a frenzy…” Sounds like the National cabinet – hair being a distinctly mammalian characteristic.

      • DoublePlusGood 16.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 10:57 am

        It’s an interesting tactic from Sinn Fein. If their votes are relevant to getting the numbers in the next parliament, they could consider taking up the seats for a change, and filibustering everything, and generally messing up everything by voting against everything.

        • alwyn 16.1.2.1
          8 May 2015 at 11:28 am

          A filibuster is impossible at Westminster. To run one requires unlimited speaking time and there, as in our own Parliament, it simply doesn’t happen.
          As for taking up their seats. I find it almost impossible to believe that they would swear allegiance to the Queen.

          • RJL 16.1.2.1.1
            8 May 2015 at 12:55 pm

            Yeah, the whole point of Sinn Fein is not swearing allegiance to the Queen.

            Historically, the tactic has worked just fine for Sinn Fein. Not that the party of the 1917 is technically the same as the party of today.

            What would be interesting is if SNP did the same…

          • DoublePlusGood 16.1.2.1.2
            8 May 2015 at 1:07 pm

            I know their parliament is like ours, but I meant being a general nuisance like proposing nonsense amendments, timewasting in debates and general obstruction, rather than just trying to speak for 20 hours of such.
            And yeah, I guess if they have to swear allegiance to the Queen, that ain’t happening. Do the SDLP members do that?

            • RJL 16.1.2.1.2.1
              8 May 2015 at 1:27 pm

              SDLP attend the Westminster parliament — so must swear allegiance (even if they have their fingers crossed).

              Arguable how “nationalist” vs “labour” SDLP actually is anyway.

  17. Ian H 17
    8 May 2015 at 10:18 am

    What is the point in calling it a fact when it is clearly a prediction. If you’d called it a prediction like a sensible person you wouldn’t look like such a plonker right now. The result has surprised everyone so there is no shame in getting it wrong … unless you were silly enough to call it a fact.

    • te reo putake 17.1
      8 May 2015 at 10:24 am

      Oh, Ian, Ian, Ian. You obviously didn’t get the tongue in cheek implication of using the word ‘Fact!’. I would have thought the video embedded in the post might have been another clue that the headline wasn’t entirely serious. Fact!

  18. te reo putake 18
    8 May 2015 at 10:19 am

    Massive majority to Labour so far, winning 100% of the seats so far declared. 2 down, quite a few to go …

    • Chooky 18.1
      8 May 2015 at 10:26 am

      err umm…thought i heard the Tories were winning by a margin

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11586490/results-live.html

      “Election results 2015 UK LIVE: Exit polls show huge lead for Conservatives
      The Conservatives are close to a majority, according to the polls. Now the counting begins and the results start coming in…”

      • Enough is Enough 18.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 11:20 am

        TRP is referring to the 3 seats that have been called Chook. Not the exit polls….

      • alwyn 18.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 6:12 pm

        At 6.00pm I have just looked at the story referenced by Chooky in 18.1

        As one of the latest stories they have one whose heading says
        “Balls on brink as Miliband says he is ‘deeply sorry'”
        I know political parties are pretty tough on losing leaders but I didn’t think they would castrate the poor guy.

        (And yes I do know who Balls is.)

    • alwyn 18.2
      8 May 2015 at 10:41 am

      Up to 3 now, and still unanimous!
      An entire house of Labour members is still possible.

  19. Sable 19
    8 May 2015 at 10:22 am

    For those who think a Labour win in the UK is a good thing:

    http://rt.com/uk/256497-labour-tories-difference-policies/

  20. te reo putake 20
    8 May 2015 at 10:28 am

    Nigel Farage is rumoured to have come 3rd in the seat of Thanet south. Not a huge surprise, as there have been plenty of indications that there has been tactical voting to keep him out.

    • RJL 20.1
      8 May 2015 at 12:58 pm

      Although difficult to see how tactical voting could make him third. If he’s third the vote against him is split.

      Tactical voting should make him second.

  21. te reo putake 21
    8 May 2015 at 10:57 am

    George Galloway may have lost his Bradford west seat. No respect for rape apologists apparently.

    • dukeofurl 21.1
      8 May 2015 at 12:05 pm

      I hope you are not going on a few polling places results.

      It makes a good story for live TV, but reality can be different when all the votes are counted.
      Never understand why they cant compare 10% of results from polling places with the same 10% last time- they do have computers which can produce results like this at the click of a mouse. 650 seats but say 15000 polling places is nothing, even for a smart phone

  22. Sirenia 22
    8 May 2015 at 10:57 am

    Looks like a worrying low turnout of just over 50%. Low turnouts usually favour the right. People might like the idea of change but don’t bother voting for it.

    • The lost sheep 22.1
      8 May 2015 at 11:08 am

      They ‘like the idea of change’ but can’t be bothered getting off their arses once every 5 years and putting in half an hours effort to make it happen?

      That’s a statement on the lack of motivation for change, as opposed to indicating a desire for it.

    • greywarshark 22.2
      8 May 2015 at 11:09 am

      More like – People might like the idea of change but – despair of it ever happening so don’t bother voting for it. FIFY

      And the lost sheep indicates the same thinking that demotivates the voters in Britain. Muddled, sad, repetitive, like a poor little dog tied to a post going round in circles, with a wound where its collar has worn into the skin which attracts flies and their maggots.

      • The lost sheep 22.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 11:30 am

        I say you are talking rubbish Greywarshark, unless you want to produce some evidence to back your claim?

        You’re just pulling the theory that suits your worldview out of thin air. Two or three people who also desperately want to believe the same delusion will pop up here and back you up and then you can all say it to each other again and again until believe it.

        Anything but come to grips with the reality that the masses are actually quite comfortable, and consequently ‘can’t be bothered’ making any effort at all to be involved in politics.

    • ianmac 22.3
      8 May 2015 at 11:26 am

      A low turnout is a declared strategy of the Right in USA and in NZ. Do this and that to muddle the voters and discourage them from voting for any damn politicians. This leaves it open for the educated and the organised Right.

      • The lost sheep 22.3.1
        8 May 2015 at 11:33 am

        Where is this ‘strategy’ to produce a low turnout ‘declared’ by the right?
        What methods does the strategy employ?

        And are you really suggesting the Left is uneducated and that why the right are able to muddle them so easily?

        • Anne 22.3.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 11:41 am

          Bugger off Tls and troll away somewhere else.

        • dukeofurl 22.3.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 12:01 pm

          They have more money and are likely to get to polling station easier. Very important in UK and US were polling is midweek not weekends like here.
          Using any story to make it easier for some people to decide not to bother to vote, dirty politics is one approach

          • The lost sheep 22.3.1.2.1
            8 May 2015 at 12:09 pm

            Duke, i’d like to see any evidence you have that people not being able to get to a polling station has ever been a factor that could effect the outcome of an election in NZ / US UK?
            I don’t believe there is any such evidence and again, however much that might support your worldview it is simply not true.
            Like wise with dirty politics…is there any evidence to back that any specific ‘dirty’ tactics have had sufficient effect to influence voting patterns one way or the other? I say there is none.

            Delusions and Excuses mate, endless firken excuses. Anything except take a good look at ourselves and say what is wrong with OUR game.

            • The lost sheep 22.3.1.2.1.1
              8 May 2015 at 1:06 pm

              Just observing another conservative government being re-elected and…..

              Here’s the dilemma.
              You passionately hold to the worldview that only a tiny % of people are happy with the current situation, and the vast majority are actively suffering and crying out for change – to a new situation that reflects your worldview, obviously.

              But here’s the difficulty.
              The great majority of ‘The People’ who are supposedly crying out for change, either vote against change, or don’t vote at all.
              How do you reconcile that with your worldview?

              It’s John Key’s fault. It’s the Media’s fault. It’s Cam Slaters fault. It’s Dirty Politics fault. It’s The Corporations fault. It’s the Voters fault for being stupid / greedy / brainwashed. It’s the dark forces of an international conspiracy to create a one world government under Satan’s fault.
              It’s anything and everything except your own fault because self evidently your worldview is perfect and beyond question and therefore cannot, be the issue.

              So it will make you all puke, but from someone who I bet has spent more time being a Lefty than most of you on the site, here’s an alternative solution to the dilemma. No charge. Send no flowers.

              ‘The People’ are not acting in a way your worldview would predict, nor do they support your worldview politically in sufficient numbers to implement your worldview. Fact.
              Therefore the issue must be either that your worldview is not currently sufficiently in tune with the mood of The People, and / or that you are not presenting your worldview in a manner that is effective in convincing The People to support it?

              FFS. Just devote half the time you currently spend obsessing about John Key to a positive examination of your own game.
              Or watch yet another RW government be elected.

              • Rosemary McDonald …
                8 May 2015 at 1:43 pm

                “FFS. Just devote half the time you currently spend obsessing about John Key to a positive examination of your own game.
                Or watch yet another RW government be elected.”

                Ditto.

                To repeat…a positive examination of your own game.

              • Planet Earth …
                8 May 2015 at 2:36 pm

                Boom! Headshot!

                You’ve nailed it, TLS

              • SHG …
                8 May 2015 at 7:32 pm

                FFS. Just devote half the time you currently spend obsessing about John Key to a positive examination of your own game.

                +1, Insightful

      • Ovid 22.3.2
        8 May 2015 at 1:44 pm

        Turnout is 63.7% (bottom of page).

  23. greywarshark 23
    8 May 2015 at 11:07 am

    Latest radionz 4% swing to Labour seems the trend. SNP could win 59 Scottish seats.

    (Next news –
    (The tuna boats have over-harvested and have made a voluntary move to cut the tuna catch. Note – it wasn’t because of the continuing diminishing trend in the tuna fishery.) 300 purse seine vessels and Shane says could drop that by at least a third.

    Trekkers in remote village ordered a helicopter to lift them out but villagers held onto the struts and wouldn’t let it leave. Negotiations followed and it was allowed to fly out with wounded Nepalese on board. It’s nice that the wealthy are doing the right thing by the needy, distressed poor people they are visiting!

  24. Ovid 24
    8 May 2015 at 11:20 am

    According to the exit poll, Tory + Lib Dem = a (bare) majority with 326 seats. Add in another 2 UKIP MPs and that sees them pretty secure.

    Hopefully the exit poll is wrong, but that’s where things are heading at this stage. It’s not comfortable either way, though. One or two by-elections in the next parliamentary term could bring down whoever forms a government.

    It may be that two hung parliaments in a row will spur on electoral reform, though.

    • Skinny 24.1
      8 May 2015 at 11:36 am

      Your reading it about right Ovid.

      The Tories will be running a messy Government. Labour best flick Ed and regroup with a more palatable leader.

      Piss poor turnout around 55% says something about Labour’s policy platform. Let’s hope our local lot see this and get it right next time.

      • Ovid 24.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 11:53 am

        They may also bring in the Ulster Unionists to shore up support too, but managing a four party coalition/confidence-and-supply arrangement will be difficult in the British environment.

    • dukeofurl 24.2
      8 May 2015 at 12:12 pm

      Since Sinn Fein never take up their seats ( around 5) the number required is less than 326.
      AS well there is one seat for Speaker who doesnt vote but is counted as part of the party he/she belongs to.

  25. te reo putake 25
    8 May 2015 at 11:30 am

    Greens to win a second seat, Norwich South. That’s not leader Natalie Bennett’s seat though and she may be still leading the party from outside Parliament.

  26. swordfish 26
    8 May 2015 at 11:53 am

    Dang !, It’ll be a bugger if the Exit Poll is correct.

    Exit polls have had mixed results in the UK:
    – Very accurate in 2010, 1997, 1983
    – Fairly accurate 2005
    – Way off 1974, 1992

    (Though, unfortunately, the 74 and 92 polls significantly overstated Labour support/understated Tory vote (and, of course, seats). Not sure that there have been any exit polls that have badly overstated Tory support).

    Not sure about exit polls in other UK elections (although the BBC exit poll in the marginal constituency of Guildford in 1970 proved remarkably accurate for the nation as a whole – 5% swing to Ted Heath’s Tories when most of the final polls were saying a Wilson Government majority of 70+).

    Prof John Curtice (who led the exit poll operations) suggests the results announced so far are roughly in line with the exit poll. Argues Labour are advancing on the Tories in half the seats / Tories advancing on Labour in other half.

    Along with this joint BBC/ITV/Sky News Exit Poll, there is also a separate YouGov poll (compiled by getting back in touch with previous respondents – so not an “exit poll” as such) which paints a far rosier picture for Labour (its results being pretty much in line with the final series of public polls).

    It has to be said that if the exit poll is right then the LibDems are absolutely fucked (and Clegg will almost certainly lose his seat).

    • dukeofurl 26.1
      8 May 2015 at 11:57 am

      Dont forget exit polls were quite a bit out in Israel recently as well, and they have a proportional voting system so dont have to turn the result into seats.

    • miravox 26.2
      8 May 2015 at 12:11 pm

      The xenophobe factor seems to have affected Labour with a swing to UKip. Interesting to see how much of the Lib Dem vote went there as well. Almost their own fault if this is the case, seeing as they added to it. They’ll also be ruing they day that they didn’t support MMP, and took an irrational approach to Scotland, I reckon.

      • swordfish 26.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 12:14 pm

        Yeah, although for every former Labour supporter now voting Ukip, there are two former Tory supporters.

        • miravox 26.2.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 12:23 pm

          I’ll be interested to see what analytical people such as yourself come up with after the vote about the movement between Con, Lab, Lib Dem and UKip.

      • Colonial Rawshark 26.2.2
        8 May 2015 at 1:20 pm

        The xenophobe factor seems to have affected Labour with a swing to UKip.

        That’s the wrong way to look at it IMO. The xenophobe factor only comes into play when people see no hope and no alternative for the future. And perhaps to them, UK Labour hasn’t provided either.

        The more useless the official political left is, the stronger the fascist wing will be. The likes of Golden Dawn in Greece are an example of that.

    • swordfish 26.3
      8 May 2015 at 12:12 pm

      Should be relying on the Exit Poll results for a few more hours. Before 1997, constituency results started coming in pretty rapidly after booths closed. Since then, the flow of results has slowed dramatically due to local elections being held on the same day.

  27. les 27
    8 May 2015 at 12:01 pm

    by the look of the British MSM headlines Russell Brand supporting Miliband is cast as toxic like KDC to Mana…or Greens/Lab loony left danger.

  28. outofbed 28
    8 May 2015 at 12:06 pm

    Tories have won, going to bed

    • Jim Nald 28.1
      8 May 2015 at 12:19 pm

      UK Labour had five years to state their case to be the party in Government. The results are coming through now.

      We are about halfway through this year and NZLP has just under 19 months to go before the 2017 election year begins (that’s pretty much the time between now till just the end of next year). Some of us are waiting to hear what the Labour Party aims to do.

  29. te reo putake 29
    8 May 2015 at 12:17 pm

    Labour hold Tooting. Power to the people!

  30. dukeofurl 30
    8 May 2015 at 12:20 pm

    The exit poll seems to have been met with derision, even from those who would have had benefited.

    “I’d treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I’m hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely- Nicola Sturgeon

    If its really wrong, the backlash will be huge. Any poll has fudge factors to try and get it closer to known factors such as age , income etc.

  31. Disraeli Gladstone 31
    8 May 2015 at 12:39 pm

    Labour is actually -losing- grounds in their Labour-held seats in London. I genuinely fear that the Tories might start pushing toward 323.

    • Colonial Rawshark 31.1
      8 May 2015 at 1:16 pm

      Labour is simply getting a taste of the cold hard facts on the ground of what people think of them. The Tory Party of the 1% looks like it will come in well ahead (which TRP said yesterday was a strange comment form myself). And so it is coming to pass.

      • te reo putake 31.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 1:23 pm

        You didn’t actually say that, CV. My reply was to what you actually said. It was a strange comment then and this is an ever stranger comment now.

        • Colonial Rawshark 31.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 4:03 pm

          Seems like reality is a stranger to Labour dreams, then.

      • James 31.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 5:26 pm

        Actually I think that this is more that a lot of people think the Tory party is their party – not just the 1% that you perceive it to be.

        • Colonial Rawshark 31.1.2.1
          8 May 2015 at 7:44 pm

          That is absolutely true, and Labour pretends not to understand that.

      • Monty 31.1.3
        9 May 2015 at 10:51 am

        Then old hard facts are that labour policy has gone backwards to the 1970s and scares the hell out of the middle classes who do get out and vote. Until the left radically change their policy platform from one of envy and hate to ambition and success they will continue to dominate the opposition benches.

    • Skinny 31.2
      8 May 2015 at 1:20 pm

      Oh dear it is rapidly looking like the Con Jobs are going to cross the line to govern alone. I never figured that mind you I wasn’t stupid enough to boast Ed wins fact crap like TRP.

      • te reo putake 31.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 1:29 pm

        Skinny, I’ve already pointed out elsewhere on this thread that the headline was tongue in cheek. As indeed was the cheesy video just below it. Get a grip, son.

        • Disraeli Gladstone 31.2.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 1:45 pm

          You were still wrong, though. You do rather have the anti-Midas touch.

        • Skinny 31.2.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 1:49 pm

          Oh nonsense TRP admit ya got a bit excited and ahead of yourself. Totally ignoring the wisdom of CV’s cautionary post yesterday.

          Now how about posting “Labour slaughtered Ed resigns tomorrow”

          [Skinny, don’t tell me what I think or what I should write. Last chance. Same applies for anyone else who wants to go down this line. TRP]

          [lprent: Bugger warnings. Never try to tell authors on this site what they should write directly or indirectly. In response, I will do exactly the same, except I will tell you one place where you cannot write. Banned 2 weeks. ]

          • Murray Rawshark 31.2.1.2.1
            8 May 2015 at 4:27 pm

            I’ve had enough of bullying of commentators by inadequate bullies. TRP is just a right wing Labour bureaucrat, who would easily segue into running a Stalinist reeducation camp. I’ve also had enough of Lprent’s assumed superiority. Publishing some code to impress is just weak. This blog is turning into a fan club for a few right wing social democrats who use their moderator powers to shut down any criticism.

            I’m off for good. That’ll no doubt make some of you happy. To the reasonable people here, sorry but I’ve got better uses for my time than walking on eggshells every time TRP or SR posts something. I’ve also heard enough from Lprent on his greatness for 3 lifetimes.

            Might see some of you somewhere else.

            • The Murphey 31.2.1.2.1.1
              8 May 2015 at 6:27 pm

              Go well Murray

              Something has changed I concur with your sentiments

              • Once was Tim …
                8 May 2015 at 7:09 pm

                +1
                and that something is the very reason the ‘LEFT’ is failing badly.
                R E S P E CT ….
                something that is meant for all – even those one might consider a bot of a bigot, or misogynistic, or whatever else.
                That R E S P E C T seems a little too selective at times

                • Once was Tim …
                  8 May 2015 at 7:11 pm

                  Oh…… and as MR suggests (infers …. before some pedantic cunt comes along and tries to make a an issue on a technicality), there’s a shit load more to life than egg shell paths, sensitive souls, and being a party to exercising and stroking egos.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke …
                    8 May 2015 at 7:26 pm

                    You forgot self-indulgent tanty-packing.

                    • Once was Tim …
                      9 May 2015 at 6:13 pm

                      yea I did OAB …. so how are we all feeling now after the UK election rout?
                      Talk about seeing the utterly bleeding obvious. There was TRP picking a win FFS!!!
                      The BEST BESTER and BESTEST thing Labour could do is just return to its founding principles – OR – alternatively, become totally irrelevant (which on the current trajectory( .BUT obviously – you’d know better, But then I guess that’d mean severak things that’d have to give amongst the ‘elite. (Let it all play out – nut let it be quick – cos I’ve no doubt you’d rather the inevitable was slower then it actually will be)
                      tik tok tik tok 2014 ….. 2017 …. 2020
                      Christ Almighty …. it took me a while to come to the conclusion I freely admit.
                      The bleeding fucking obvious though is sometimes very bery very bery hard 2c
                      I’m pretty fucking sure ‘brand Labour’ ain’t gotten it just yet.

                      When they do – my pick is that it will be without any hint of a neo-lib philosophy.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke …
                      9 May 2015 at 6:31 pm

                      I “picked” the headline as TRP being funny, and while it’s quite clear there are some deaf ears, mine worked just fine, so no, I don’t share your ire.

            • Once was Tim 31.2.1.2.1.2
              8 May 2015 at 6:54 pm

              4.27 pm, and it’s now 2 hrs later …… and not a frikken WHISPER.
              No doubt people are ‘busy’ ….. there is a ‘bigger picture’ ….. etc.
              Is that the sound of 9 thou guitar string snapping?

              To me, this sums up the political wing of the ‘Labour movement’ globally pretty much – totally out of touch with its base, and unwilling to return to it.
              (although I note ALBERTA).

              Prior to the last election my fear was that NZ Labour might be either totally irrelevant or disappear up its own arse and not be around in 2017.
              I sure as hell can’t vote for them until they return to their founding principles and until they rid themselves of the troughers [ Funny really – as in strange funny – when you look at some of the people you grew up with – and where they are now and what they profess to be …… Ken Douglases, Paul Toliches, Gerard Hills (father rolls in grave as lattes, trendy ponsonby cafes, property portfolios, etc are in abundance) ….. the list goes on really. I guess they were never really that principled to begin with when I look back Despite some good smart people, I don’t really see too many signs of that happening, and they still don’t seem to get the idea of providing an ALTERNATIVE.

              I’ll be interested to see the official reply to your hissy fit Murray R. (you fekking dinosaur ….. the world’s moved on …. etc. etc. etc.)
              Yesterday (or was it the day before), I actually got accused of ‘ADVOCATING’ something rather nasty – justified by the moderator’s comment beginning “SOUNDS LIKE ……… ” when in fact I was doing/meaning no such thing, but more concerned about lessons (learnings) not being learned, history repeating, and what the world will be like for my kids and little grandson given the current political landscape – that incremental step-by-step towards fascism that goes unnoticed till its all too late; the populace get pissed off; and lamposts begin to figure in the picture.
              So if need be, I’ll see you on the other side

              • One Anonymous Bloke …
                8 May 2015 at 7:04 pm

                “Official”?

                What’s “official” about moderation at The Standard? Do you think Andrew Little should step in and make some sort of statement about it?

                • Once was Tim …
                  8 May 2015 at 7:40 pm

                  official as in the officianados as controllers and owners of the effort put into the production of this worthwhile enterprose (known as “The Standard”) ……. going forward.
                  I’m not YET quite as cynical as YEE tho’ OAB …. but there does seem to be this phenomenon across media lately where there ain’t no such thing as respected ‘insitutions’, but rather things that come and go, and often disappear up their own arse.
                  Let me know where you’re holding your cynicism conferences and (as long as they’re free), I’ll make an effort to come along

                  • Once was Tim …
                    8 May 2015 at 7:42 pm

                    Oh ….. just as long as there’s not going to be a ‘pundit present’ or a Labour Party ‘stalwart’ such as a Pagani or a Williams.

  32. greywarshark 32
    8 May 2015 at 12:44 pm

    This is a preview of the after-election party the Tories are planning for the remains of the British Empah. Hale and Pace express their emotions succinctly.

  33. greywarshark 33
    8 May 2015 at 12:51 pm


    Does this youtube link work as a link here, or open directly? We shall see.

    Okay, here is the link. The first time I put it up it was opening onto the page. Don’t know why. I have been able to copy the link from the top line before. This time I put it on the youtube search line and then copied it here. Worked.

    • greywarshark 33.1
      8 May 2015 at 2:16 pm

      I see it has done it again. I will consult with a knowledgable person, it may be because I haven’t changed to the new Firefox and the old one is not effective. But have a look and laugh anyway – it should still go.

      • felix 33.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 8:07 pm

        It’s a bug in (or feature of) the latest wordpress update. Lynn says he will get around to fixing it some time.

  34. Brutus Iscariot 34
    8 May 2015 at 1:02 pm

    Big late swing to the Conservatives – i put it down to the royal genitalia. Producing at just the right time.

    • DoublePlusGood 34.1
      8 May 2015 at 1:11 pm

      Preplanned timing, perhaps…

      • whateva next? 34.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 1:31 pm

        like winning rugby world cup in NZ got Key the election here?

        • DoublePlusGood 34.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 2:37 pm

          I dunno, Key somehow managed to win the election after as well…

          • whateva next? 34.1.1.1.1
            9 May 2015 at 3:38 pm

            True, as Margaret Thatcher got in one more term after the Faulklands war “victory”, rallying and distracting with swelling of “national pride”. In the end it was an implosion that ended their reign , not the outside. Possibly Blair cosying up with Murdoch and creating “new” Labour too. People not so frightened of a big change…..

  36. Maui 36
    8 May 2015 at 1:20 pm

    So big question, what does it take for the left to win an election in the western anglo-saxon countries? Are we just morally bankrupt and corrupted by having comparitively too much money.

    • DoublePlusGood 36.1
      8 May 2015 at 1:24 pm

      Basically, yes. The right wing pretty much has to have their leader kill babies on National TV for their loyal voters to desert them – no matter how much they’re going backwards while the 1% cream it off them and everyone else.

    • SHG 36.2
      8 May 2015 at 1:39 pm

      So big question, what does it take for the left to win an election in the western anglo-saxon countries?

      Voters. Good luck with that.

      • Wayne 36.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 2:29 pm

        Be Blairite.

        • Pasupial 36.2.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 4:06 pm

          A Blair-right government won’t institute left policies. Maui’s question wasn’t; how do we get our team’s bums on the government benches, it was:

          “what does it take for the left to win an election in the western anglo-saxon countries?”

    • Richard 36.3
      8 May 2015 at 1:51 pm

      Not just that. It’s your policies also.

      • DoublePlusGood 36.3.1
        8 May 2015 at 2:39 pm

        The policies are fine. The problem is that people don’t realise that those policies are actually good for them. All they see is “Nanny State! Bludger! Evil Tax!” and run away.

        • Colonial Rawshark 36.3.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 4:13 pm

          Sorry but that’s Bullshit IMO. And you can see it because Scotland ran left as hard as they fucking could. Which was away from Labour.

          UK Labour lost because people have figured out that they are just another iteration of austerity enforcing, orthodox economic and monetary policy loving, foreign war engaging, City of London bankster kowtowing, politics. Albeit Labour does do it a bit half heartedly.

          So they prefer the authenticity of the Tories doing the same thing.

          • DoublePlusGood 36.3.1.1.1
            9 May 2015 at 9:19 pm

            They aren’t exactly flocking to the Greens or Mana here, despite policies that are excellent for them.

    • BG 36.4
      8 May 2015 at 2:49 pm

      My 3 cents worth is. Labour needs to move back to where it came from. It tells the world that it is for the working class man but here (as well as in the UK) the party is filled with snouts in the troughs academics who have never had to work in their lives.

      Labour NZ would be better promoting the likes of Kelvin Davis, Damien O’Connor and Stuart Nash.

      Everyone know that Little is being propped up by the Unions and the next of the rank (Robertson) is a Wellington beltway lackey who has never been on the donut all his life.

      Labour just doesn’t get it. Shane Jones hit the nail on the head when he “labour means work” It doesn’t mean man-bans, cosying up to the Greens, gay marriage or hugging beneficiaries.

      then again what will I know…I’m only a voter.

      • phillip ure 36.4.1
        8 May 2015 at 3:29 pm

        “..then again what will I know..”

        the truest words you say in that pile of drivel..

        ..u seem to be deeply politically-confused..

        ..advocating labour ‘go back to where it came from’..

        ..and then pimping for the rightwing-trouts within labour..

        seriously..!..intellectually – u r a fucken mess…

        • higherstandard 36.4.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 3:36 pm

          Quite right Phil he should learn from an astute political commentator like you.

        • BG 36.4.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 4:36 pm

          Case in point.

          You question Labour’s direction and you get told to p%&* off!

          OK don’t listen and keep losing.

          • phillip ure 36.4.1.2.1
            8 May 2015 at 5:13 pm

            no..you push out complete rubbish –

            – pimping the rightwing/national-party-lite members of labour..

            and you weren’t ‘told to piss off’…

            ..u were told you seem to be deeply intellectually/politically-confused..

            i mean – pimp for those rightwing trouts/ideas all you like..(it’s a democracy)

            ..but don’t try and push the complete and utter bullshit that the rightwing path is ‘labour returning to its’ roots’..

            u must think we are all really fucken stupid..

            ..but in fact – it is you who has the strong stupid-gene..

      • felix 36.4.2
        8 May 2015 at 3:45 pm

        I love the idea that Shane Jones, a professional bullshit-artist who’s had his snout in the trough all his life, somehow represents old fashioned hard work.

        lolz indeed.

        • Colonial Rawshark 36.4.2.1
          8 May 2015 at 4:19 pm

          Anyone in the NZ Labour caucus worked for any significant time as a tradesperson of some description, forestry worker, machinist, miner, engineer or developer? Nope, didn’t think so. All paper pushers and admin staffers.

        • Stuart Munro 36.4.2.2
          8 May 2015 at 5:36 pm

          It’s certainly remarkable that he is ascribed fisheries competence – a bloke called France built up Sealord, Jones not so much.

          • phillip ure 36.4.2.2.1
            8 May 2015 at 5:46 pm

            it is astonishing that jones is ‘ascribed competence’ in anything other than his well-documented speciality..

            ..troughing…

  37. Maui 37
    8 May 2015 at 1:41 pm

    “Mhairi Black, of the Scottish National Party, has become the youngest MP elected in the UK for 350 years.

    The 20-year-old now represents the constituency of Paisley and Renfrewshire South, outside Glasgow.

    The law was changed in 2006, lowering the minimum age of parliamentary candidates from 21 to 18.

    In 1667, 13-year-old Christopher Monck, 2nd Duke of Albemarle, took his seat in the House of Commons.”

    • Maui 37.1
      8 May 2015 at 1:53 pm

      Geez, who would vote in a 13 year old. I spose we did vote in 11 year old Anna Paquin to become Minister of Arts, Culture and Heritage 😉

  38. SPC 38
    8 May 2015 at 1:49 pm

    2010

    Tories 36.1% Labour 29.0%

    2015

    Tories 37% Labour 28%

    The pollsters picked a right race all the way through, and this is not that close.

    A big defeat for the pollsters credibility, the real question is why?

    Or if the polls were credible in methodology and hence accuracy at the time, what explains the overnight change to exit polls (which seem to be in accord with votes as they come in).

    Did the English voters sleep on it, and change their minds? Why did England sleep on it (apologies to Jack Kennedy re Why England slept) and change their minds?

    Did they hear a tune, a refrain of the words, think again Sassenach, what else but nightmares about the rise of the Scot could influence them to change their minds while they slept?

    • SPC 38.1
      8 May 2015 at 2:15 pm

      As to late influences in the media.

      One surprising thing I saw on the BBC coverage just prior to the election was an argument that the UK might lose its veto power and permanent place on the UNSC if they no longer had nuclear weapons, and if the Tories lost the Trident programme might be scrapped.

      It was rubbish (when the UNSC council was formed only the USA had nuclear weapons and yet there were still 5 veto power nations given permanent membership and having nuclear weapons power has not assisted India into such a role etc), but indicative of a sense of panic being created about a change of government

      Then there was the Independent editorial on Tuesday 5th

      http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html

      Where they side with a Tory LD coalition over a Labour led government.

      The poor fools might now face a Tory DUP coalition and no moderating influence from LD whatsoever.

  39. millsy 39
    8 May 2015 at 1:56 pm

    Its only an exit poll.

    Still a long way to go.

    • Skinny 39.1
      8 May 2015 at 2:15 pm

      My English Nephew sums things with this FB post a short time ago;

      The blinkered political logic of the SNP that they’ll be able to *make* Westminster listen has been shot out of the water tonight. Cameron with a majority will stand off with the SNP for fun and all of Sturgeons light weight words about the UK will mean jack shit tomorrow morning. Well done you’ve built up the walls higher between England and Scotland more than ever before. Support might increase but progress will be at a crawl. The SNP helped Thatcher walk into No.10 and tonight the SNP is blissfully ignorant to the consequences for either country in the next 5 years. The talk of a progressive alliance is fit for a work of fiction.

      • SPC 39.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 2:20 pm

        Spiteful sore loser.

        Every attempt by English labour to blame the Scots for their defeat by the Tories in England just proves to Scots why independence remains their best hope of good government, let the English have the government they vote for.

      • DoublePlusGood 39.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 3:04 pm

        All that is nonsense because at the moment, SNP is +1 for the left due to taking a seat off the lib dems.
        The main problem based on the results and looking at the close contests in England and Wales seems to be that a lot of working class people voted for UKIP in numbers sufficient that Labour weren’t able to win seats off the Conservatives.

        • SPC 39.1.2.1
          8 May 2015 at 3:13 pm

          No not really – the Tories are up 1% since 2010 and Labour is down 1%.

          The LD have gone down and the UKIP have gone up.

          Both Tories and Labour have gained from LD and lost to UKIP.

          • DoublePlusGood 39.1.2.1.1
            8 May 2015 at 3:45 pm

            If you look at those close seats where Labour was looking to pick them up off the conservatives you can see in a lot of those seats the UKIP candidate lurking in third with 10-20% of the vote, and the Labour candidate 5-10% behind the Conservative candidate. Labour needed to pick up more of those votes.

      • linda 39.1.3
        8 May 2015 at 7:35 pm

        wrong the aim of the snp is to break up the union Cameron winning brings that day
        closer the act of union states that if the union no longer serves the interests of the Scottish people the union can be dissolved at any time there is no way Scotland will accept a Tory government from England it is within the preview of the first minister and the Scottish parliament to decide the point that united kingdom is no more there is no requirement for a referendum a unilateral declaration can be made
        this election has delivered a powerful message of revolution in Scotland and given Nicola a mandate .

  40. SPC 40
    8 May 2015 at 2:10 pm

    I wonder if Cameron has the nous to use another term to do the obvious.

    1. Establish an English parliament, akin to the one in Scotland and Ulster.
    2. Use some of the .7% GDP in foreign aid to contribute to a naval effort to protest the Med Sea borders of the EU to block economic migrants – either returning boats to Africa or taking people to camps and flying them home. Genuine refugees being kept in camps but given no preference over refugees resident in camps outside the EU (to make the illegal entry pointless).

  41. Wayne 41
    8 May 2015 at 2:27 pm

    I suggest to save further embarrassment you start a new item on the UK election.

    Last night at the pub with a friend I said the polls were wrong and that there would be a late surge to the Conservatives. I had two reasons. The first was that a number of voters would not risk Labour’s big spending plans. The second is that voters would not want to see a Labour led government held hostage by SNP.

    I thought the voters who would swing back to the Conservatives would be Conservative voters flirting with UKIP. In fact it has been centerist Labour voters and probably a fair chunk of the Liberal vote.

    One lesson from this is that the Left don’t win by going hard left. They have to be Blairite, or in the NZ case like Helen Clark who spent a lot of political capital in demonstrating she was a safe choice. But I appreciate this this is not a lesson that will be heard here.

    Going back to the UK, the SNP has won virtually every seat in Scotland, with much of their appeal being “we hate the Tories, and all their evil works” including hating the idea of the UK being a serious country having to do the things serious countries do. In the UK case that means being one of the P5, being a close and historical ally of the US, being a nuclear power and London being a great centre of world capitalism.

    So if the SNP hates all of that, how long is it before English voters and their elected representatives say to Scotland, “sod off, we don’t need you and we don’t want you”.

    • Ovid 41.1
      8 May 2015 at 2:50 pm

      One lesson from this is that the Left don’t win by going hard left. They have to be Blairite, or in the NZ case like Helen Clark who spent a lot of political capital in demonstrating she was a safe choice. But I appreciate this this is not a lesson that will be heard here.

      I think the lesson came through loud and clear in September and there’s plenty of evidence that Labour is now turning its attention to soft National voters rather than solely relying on non-voters. Little’s been very clear that CGT is not a goer, for example and he’s been reaching out to the likes of contractors and other small businessmen. They also now have a greater potential to draw back women. Maybe Labour will lose some on its left to the Greens, but so be it.

      One big theme of MMP is compromise (edit: I would imagine in your parliamentary career, you have seen both inter- and intra-party compromise) and parties in NZ have learned – for the most part – to temper their rhetoric around bottom lines when it comes to coalition formation. In the UK, the FPTP campaign has been marked by hard-and-fast statements that have left little for any potential negotiation. The SNP and Labour have not been especially cordial with each other and maybe voters picked up on this.

      • Puckish Rogue 41.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 2:58 pm

        You forget that the unions which due to the amount of money they gave basically own Labour and Little and they’ll be pushing to remove things they don’t like, like the 90 day bill for instance

        • Ovid 41.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 3:08 pm

          I don’t think they’ll be expecting much for $162,000. I should imagine the dues from MPs’ salaries would be significantly more than that.

        • felix 41.1.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 3:32 pm

          Good idea. And zero-hour contracts.

          And low wages that have to be topped up by the state.

    • Anne 41.2
      8 May 2015 at 2:54 pm

      Can’t make up my mind which one is the more infantile – John Key or Wayne Mapp. Perhaps someone can assist me to make a decision. 😕

      • higherstandard 41.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 3:03 pm

        It appears the UK election results are making Anne more bilious than usual.

      • Murray Rawshark 41.2.2
        8 May 2015 at 3:55 pm

        They’re both pretty bad. I don’t think it’s worth trying to figure out which is worse, but FJK is more immediately dangerous, to both our country and our children.

      • Realblue 41.2.3
        8 May 2015 at 4:20 pm

        Now now Anne that’s a terrible case of sour grapes. In the infantile stakes I believe you win first place for that tantrum you’re throwing.

    • SPC 41.3
      8 May 2015 at 3:09 pm

      What you are really saying is that if the right can successfully intimidate the political opposition into appeasement then there will not be anything a but bi-partisan consensus set by of and for the (UK) establishment.

      And then there would be an order of rule no looser in fit than the one imposed by the state party monopoly of China …

      Ah the champions of the peoples rule, freedom and liberty outing themselves – as they more openly do at times when the hubris is strong.

    • Pascals bookie 41.4
      8 May 2015 at 4:09 pm

      “They have to be Blairite, or in the NZ case like Helen Clark who spent a lot of political capital in demonstrating she was a safe choice.”

      blah blah blah.

      How do you spend political capital and gain votes Wayne? How is ‘demonstrating you are a safe choice’ anything other than a tautology in politics? Do you even think about what banal buzz phrases you drop out here?

      Tell us about the actual policies she won on. Way I remember it, it was:

      -Repealing the Employment contracts act
      -raising taxes the top marginal tax rates
      -restoring the public sector which was falling apart under National

    • McFlock 41.5
      8 May 2015 at 4:15 pm

      One lesson from this is that the Left don’t win by going hard left. They have to be Blairite, or in the NZ case like Helen Clark who spent a lot of political capital in demonstrating she was a safe choice. But I appreciate this this is not a lesson that will be heard here.

      From wikipedia:

      Party ideology

      The SNP’s policy base is mostly in the mainstream European social democratic tradition. Among its policies are commitments to same-sex marriage, reducing the voting age to 16, unilateral nuclear disarmament, progressive personal taxation, the eradication of poverty, the building of affordable social housing, free higher education, opposition to the building of new nuclear power plants, investment in renewable energy, the abolition of Air Passenger Duty, and a pay increase for nurses.[30][31]

      A party might not win by going “hard left”, but it doesn’t seem to hurt it, either. Although it might seem that “Blue Labour” (which seems to be a UK equavilent of pandering to the “Waitakere Man”) wasn’t much help for UKLabour.

    • Tracey 41.6
      8 May 2015 at 4:35 pm

      of course you said that wayne just like you had spent weeks “investigating” nzf but quickly change it to observe 35 minutes later.

    • miravox 41.7
      8 May 2015 at 7:23 pm

      Go Blairite?

      I think the votes lost to UKip and the SNP would show that would be incorrect. As does the Lib Dem result

  42. Colonial Viper 42
    8 May 2015 at 3:25 pm

    great to see Labour cruising to victory on the basis of the tide coming in.

  43. felix 43
    8 May 2015 at 3:39 pm

    Probably worth bookmarking Wayne’s (and chris73’s) comments in this thread for next time the Nats lose a seat or a mayoralty or a general election.

    • Planet Earth 43.1
      8 May 2015 at 4:29 pm

      Probably worth bookmarking TRP’s headline to this thread for next time they make a prediction

      [I’m tired of pointing out that the headline was tongue in cheek. The post was also tagged social media lolz and led with a cheesy video of Ed Miliband. If you’re not bright enough to spot those things, nor to see the other warnings I’ve already given, then you’re not up to commenting here. Take a fortnight off. TRP]

  44. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 44
    8 May 2015 at 4:20 pm

    It was Brand wot lost it.

  45. mac1 45
    8 May 2015 at 4:25 pm

    Mil desperandum!

  46. weka 46
    8 May 2015 at 4:34 pm

    A quick question from someone who’s only been following this peripherally.

    When people say that the Conservatives will win, do they mean that they alone will get more than half the number of seats? Just trying to get my head out of MMP and back into FPP.

    • te reo putake 46.1
      8 May 2015 at 4:39 pm

      They’re on track to get 290-300 seats, just less than half, weka. They also get support from the Irish DUP and possibly what’s left of the Lib Dems. So probably a minority Government with a small margin over the rest of the opposition.

  47. les 47
    8 May 2015 at 4:42 pm

    Key,Abbott,Cameron….Crosby Textor trifecta!

  48. mickysavage 48
    8 May 2015 at 5:28 pm

    Interesting it looks like the total vote will be very close but it is the distribution of votes that has hurt Labour. Shame the commentary is not reflecting this or talking about the need for proportional representation.

    • les 48.1
      8 May 2015 at 5:30 pm

      its irrelevant.

      • mickysavage 48.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 5:31 pm

        No it is not. It is a sign their electoral system does not work properly.

        • higherstandard 48.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 5:34 pm

          BBC is making that very point, it is very telling when you look at the respective % of the UK vote for the SNP and UKIP and how many seats they have managed to get.

        • Macro 48.1.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 5:36 pm

          Totally agree! Too many are being disenfranchised.

        • The lost sheep 48.1.1.3
          8 May 2015 at 5:44 pm

          Lib Dems 8% of vote = 6 seats
          SNP 7% of vote = 55 seats.

          Doesn’t that make you feel all nostalgic for FFP?

          • mickysavage 48.1.1.3.1
            8 May 2015 at 5:45 pm

            Nope. The Greens are polling very well but will only have possibly one seat. And UKIP are also poorly served. If they are able to get the vote they should have the representation.

            • The lost sheep 48.1.1.3.1.1
              8 May 2015 at 5:51 pm

              I have a friend who was a Lib Dem MP….I remember getting drunk with him one night, and him shedding tears over the speed with which we had initiated and completed electoral change in NZ….and the utter impossibility of such a movement happening in the U.K.

              • les …
                8 May 2015 at 5:54 pm

                only a fluke it happened here…We got lucky.

                • weka …
                  8 May 2015 at 6:17 pm

                  how so?

                  • les …
                    8 May 2015 at 6:28 pm

                    simply-‘Few of Labour’s leaders welcomed the commission’s recommendations, however, and the government tried to sideline the issue. Although National’s leadership also disliked the idea of MMP, they saw an opportunity to embarrass the government over its failure to respond to the commission’s proposals. As each party tried to outmanoeuvre the other, both entered the 1990 election campaign promising to hold referenda on electoral reforms that they did not really want.’

          • weka 48.1.1.3.2
            8 May 2015 at 6:18 pm

            “Lib Dems 8% of vote = 6 seats
            SNP 7% of vote = 55 seats.

            Doesn’t that make you feel all nostalgic for FFP?”

            It’s ;ossible that they’d get more if the UK was using MMP, because lefties would understand the value of voting the smaller parties instead of Labour.

        • les 48.1.1.4
          8 May 2015 at 5:49 pm

          which one does then?

    • McFlock 48.2
      8 May 2015 at 5:31 pm

      yeah it’s weird looking at a system like that, now.

      Especially as quite a few narrow majorities (<3%) stand out. I suppose overall you could make a prediction on exit polls for those sorts of seats, but not for a specific one.

    • Colonial Viper 48.3
      8 May 2015 at 6:22 pm

      MS, UK Labour was against moves towards proportional representation. They wanted the system of two party dominance to remain and for smaller parties to be locked out (see UKIP with almost 3M votes and still only one seat).

      I suppose you reap what you sow.

      • Anne 48.3.1
        8 May 2015 at 6:33 pm

        I suppose you reap what you sow.

        Agreed CV. Mind you, the parties of the Left have an uphill battle with the truly toxic tabloid press in Britain. Given my limited knowledge of UK politics I may be wrong, but it does seem to me that UK Labour suffers from a collective anxiety disorder which prevents it from being truly bold and innovative.

        NZ Labour needs to take heed of that lesson if it doesn’t want to suffer the same fate in 2017.

        • Ron 48.3.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 7:51 pm

          Interesting last nights Fabian meeting on Journalism there was talk about the left attacking journalists etc, Consensus seemed to be that we damage ourselves when we do this. Of course there are right wing journalists but there are many that do a good reporting job. If we keep attacking them all we do is make it harder to get good press when we have something to say.
          We need to concentrate on our message and keep hammering away at positive messages.

          • the pigman 48.3.1.1.1
            8 May 2015 at 7:55 pm

            The situation is quite different in the UK, because most major papers nail their colours to the mast. That makes them fair game when you want to call their bias.

            What goes on with Fairfax and the Herald is much more insidious… see also: election day eve full page advertisements/Stuff full window banner, etc.

            The people with the most money win, basically.

  49. Tautoko Mangō Mata 49
    8 May 2015 at 5:29 pm

    Is it possible for progressive parties to, before an election, agree to form a looser (not loser) type of coalition based on maybe 5 or 6 basic common bottom line policies, then campaign by pointing out their differences in policies outside the basic agreed common policies? Has the English Labour party lost out by not looking like it can form a coalition government in the same way the Labour-Greens seemed to here in Aotearoa?

  50. Doug 50
    8 May 2015 at 5:34 pm

    [deleted]

    [See the earlier moderation above. Two weeks off. TRP]

  51. Grantoc 51
    8 May 2015 at 5:55 pm

    [Deleted]

    [As above.Banned two weeks. TRP]

  52. Eralc 52
    8 May 2015 at 6:02 pm

    What was Andrew Little’s advice to Ed Miliband? Whatever it was, it didn’t work.

    • les 52.1
      8 May 2015 at 6:24 pm

      his advice was get Crosby Textor..but

    • alwyn 52.2
      8 May 2015 at 6:25 pm

      I believe Andrew Little told them something like this, but it was given to the party rather than Ed directly..

      “You should try and learn from the New Zealand Labour Party experience last year.
      It is absolutely fatal to let your union affiliates vote into the leadership an idiot who professes to support the loonier policies from the loony left.
      We did that when we made David Cunliffe our leader. As soon as he was exposed to public scrutiny the party support started to collapse.
      Let your party MPs pick the leader. At least they know what the other MPs are like.
      Ed is just like David was. An arrogant prat who is not even a tiny fraction as good as he thought he was

      Er, Um. Of course that doesn’t apply to a brilliant man like me.”

      • les 52.2.1
        8 May 2015 at 6:35 pm

        Cunnliffe was a huge flop..no nouse at all..I hope McCarten was n’t responsible for all the complete f/ups.

      • Anne 52.2.2
        8 May 2015 at 6:41 pm

        Oh dear… infantilism among the rwnj’s is particularly catching on this post. 🙂

      • phillip ure 52.2.3
        8 May 2015 at 6:44 pm

        what complete and utter shite..alwyn..

        • les 52.2.3.1
          8 May 2015 at 6:49 pm

          it kinda isn’t ..I remember Cunnliffe saying re Key ”’he knows I have his measure’…I actually believed him..but coached or not Key destroyed him the same as um Shearer and the very disappointing Goff.

          • phillip ure 52.2.3.1.1
            8 May 2015 at 7:44 pm

            we’ve already been thru all this..

            ..labour ’14 peaked @ the time cunnliffe did his ‘workers’ flag is deepest red’ routine..(35-36%..from memory..

            ..then the neo-libs/right in labour held sway..

            ..and changed that flag colour to a pale-blue..

            ..and that poll-peak faded away..with the empty promise..

            ..cunnliffe promised to reach out to the missing-million voters..

            ..but the neo-libs/right/fiscal-conservatives in labour..(yoo-hoo..!..parker..!..)..held sway (again)..and ensured that when the rubber hit the road..he actually had nothing to offer them..(benefit-rises @ rate of inflation only..sums it up..)

            ..key didn’t ‘destroy him’..it was all the handiwork of the right/neo-libs in labour..

            ..all their own work..

            then of course their most unsavoury ganging up on harawira..

            ..ensured their defeat..

            ..as i said..all their own work..

            ..a ‘clever-key’ nowhere in sight..

            • les 52.2.3.1.1.1
              8 May 2015 at 7:50 pm

              debate re CGT question fromKey ..Cunnliffe=possum=headlights=goodnite=same as ‘show me the money’=soundbites that resonate with the simple voter.

  53. NickS 53
    8 May 2015 at 6:50 pm

    And it looks like the UK is in for a lot of hurt and they can kiss goodbye to the NHS and other welfare systems in England, along with continued failed austerity measures which have increased the UK’s debt levels.

    Oh well, hopefully the SNP can push devolution along and help Scotland escape before the Conservatives send the UK down the sink.

    • higherstandard 53.1
      8 May 2015 at 7:07 pm

      What rubbish, the NHS and welfare is not going to be removed just because the conservatives were voted back in.

      • phillip ure 53.1.1
        8 May 2015 at 7:33 pm

        did you read their policies..?

        ..they are promising to gut both nhs…and ‘major welfare reform’..

        (and we all know what tories mean by those words..eh..?..)

        • higherstandard 53.1.1.1
          8 May 2015 at 7:54 pm

          That was one of their policy platforms was it…

          “We will gut the NHS !”

          • felix 53.1.1.1.1
            8 May 2015 at 8:04 pm

            It wasn’t National’s policy platform to keep selling state assets this term either, but they’re busily flogging off our housing stock and the land it sits on as we speak.

        • Gosman 53.1.1.2
          8 May 2015 at 8:18 pm

          Seems the electorate in the UK has voted for welfare and NHS reform.

          • phillip ure 53.1.1.2.1
            8 May 2015 at 8:24 pm

            just like the electorate here voted to flog off state houses..

            ..in fact key promised – no more asset-sales…

            ..lying tory bastard..!

      • NickS 53.1.2
        8 May 2015 at 7:43 pm

        Already welfare’s been attacked, they outsourced eligibility and job training/placement to private contractors, resulting in completely avoidable deaths from benefit cuts and exploitation of beneficiaries in below minimum wage/zero-pay jobs. While the NHS in England has faced cutbacks amongst other stuff profiled in the Guardian and Independent newspapers that has lead to commentators suspected strongly the NHS will wind up parceled up for sale to the Tory party’s mates.

    • linda 53.2
      8 May 2015 at 7:49 pm

      the act of union states that if the union no longer serves the interests of the Scottish people the union can be dissolved at any time there is no way Scotland will accept a Tory government from England it is within the preview of the first minister and the Scottish parliament to decide the point that united kingdom is no more there is no requirement for a referendum a unilateral declaration can be made
      this election has delivered a powerful message of revolution in Scotland and given Nicola a mandate .

  54. Ron 54
    8 May 2015 at 7:43 pm

    Ed Balls loses Morley. It’s looking more and more like a complete disaster. Once again the left completely misjudge the public. We now look like having right wing governments in Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand for a long time to come.

  55. felix 55
    8 May 2015 at 8:25 pm

    So if Labour had won, would the headline still be tongue in cheek?

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