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National refuses to rule out coalition with Destiny

Written By: - Date published: 7:31 am, June 11th, 2019 - 124 comments
Categories: Coalition NZ, national, same old national, Simon Bridges - Tags: ,

Brian Tamaki, recent victim of self/God?-inflicted burns. Don't be like Brian.

So yesterday this happened:

Destiny Church leader Brian Tamaki has laid into New Zealand’s Islamic community in an interview with Middle Eastern broadcaster Al Jazeera.

Tamaki courted controversy soon after the attacks on two Christchurch mosques where 51 people died, when he tweeted his anger at the Islamic call to prayer being broadcast during a ceremony to remember victims.

In April, Finance Minister Grant Robertson ridiculed Tamaki on Twitter, saying: “He [Tamaki] literally spends his entire time telling people (gays, Muslims et al) who they can’t be.”

In an interview with Al Jazeera’s 101 East, Tamaki doubled down on the anti-Islam rhetoric.

“You’re coming to my country, and therefore you respect the host country,” he said.

“After a term in being here, you run your life and your values and your religion like you did where you came from – that’s disingenuous to the foundations of the countries that have been built over [the] years.”

Tamaki blamed a clash of cultures for the alleged shooter’s actions.

“I think it’s naive to think different cultures could happily and harmoniously live together,” he told 101 East. “I think that’s a bit naive and almost ignorant.

He also said that white supremacists have been “hurt” and become bitter.  

“Clash of cultures”, white supremacists being hurt and becoming bitter, sounds like he is after the rabid right vote which is a strange position for someone with self professed deeply held christian beliefs to take.

And attacking multiculturalism and expressing sympathy for white supremacists are not the things that you would expect a MMP savvy prospective political operator to do either.

Because based on this you would expect every main stream party to attack Tamaki’s views and rule out instantly the remote possibility of working with him.

But wait:

Even National operatives get it:

https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/1137989859581153280

There is a National caucus meeting this morning. I understand there will be a push for Curia polling to be presented to the meeting so that MPs can assess which public poll is more accurate and how bad to the party is.

I had thought that Bridges was safe until the next election. But this sort of clunky disastrous response is going to make his caucus question the utility of this.

124 comments on “National refuses to rule out coalition with Destiny”

  1. Tuppence Shrewsbury 1

    Has labour categorically ruled out working with destiny? Can’t see any mention of that above either. All parties should declare openly who they can and can’t work with if in government.

    Take some of the bullshit horse trading out of the whole process

    • Incognito 1.1

      Did you miss the two most recent polls?

      • Tuppence Shrewsbury 1.1.1

        so labour would only rule out working with destiny if their own polling was high enough to not need them?

        thats a conditional refusal dumb dumb, not a categorical one.

        But thanks for highlighting the fact labour wouldn’t rule it out if their retention of power depended on it

        [lprent: I find that that putting words into someone else mouth means that the perpetrator is a serial killer. That is about as logical as your statement.

        Banned for 2 months as a consequence – just in case I’m being too generous..

        FFS that is an idiotic troll tactic. ]

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.1

          Labour has not ruled out working with the Nazi Party either. But I am pretty confident that if asked they will confirm that this is not an option.

          • Gosman 1.1.1.1.1

            The Destiny church party is a long, long way from being anywhere like the Nazi party.

            I am not entirely sure what the major difference between the Destiny church party and other Christian conservative political movements is other than the personalities involved.

            Given National is on the right of the polituical spectrum I think it is entirely appropriate to be willing to negotiate with conservative political parties.

            • marty mars 1.1.1.1.1.1

              awesome – is their ANY potential or actual party of the right that you think the gnats should never work with?

            • Marcus Morris 1.1.1.1.1.2

              "The Destiny church party is a long, long way from being anywhere like the Nazi party." Can't help feeling you have missed the point here Gosman. Not that I wish to put words into Mickeysavages mouth, but his remark didn't suggest to me that he was comparing like with like. I think he was just suggesting that it would be fairly safe to say that a Labour Party would would not not sign up with a Nazi party. You could say that with 99.99% certainty. As usual Simon is being coy but it would be interesting to learn what his constituency would make of an alliance with Destiny.

              • patricia bremner

                What Party? They, Destiny haven't registered last I heard. The Coalition? Of what? When do we get some Policy?

            • michelle 1.1.1.1.1.3

              when your desperate you should not count out anyone and national are desperate hooray !

            • Lucy 1.1.1.1.1.4

              Actually many of their utterances mean the gap between the Nazi Party and Destiny Church is small. The claim that Muslims need to abandon their religion as they are coming to a "Christian country" is not a million miles away from telling Jews to abandon Judaism. If we kept that logic whatever religious beliefs the Maori's had prior to European settlement, European settlers should have converted to as we were coming to their land.

              • woodart

                nazi party, destiny party, and the nats have more in common than differences. on this basis, gosman is correct, the nats WILL be expected to work (crawl) with other right wing parties. along with whats left of act, it will be a fascinating case study to observe all of these similar but different right wing troglodytes getting along. anybody with a brain can see right wing parties all round the planet splintering into smaller and more single issue cults. brexit party…what a joke

              • Gosman

                The Nazi party never called on Jews to abandon Judaism. Secular or even Christianised Jews were treated as badly as the religious ones. It was an ethnic not religious persecution.

                • McFlock

                  Excellent point there, Gosman. Density's demand for religious homogeneity/putiry is totes different to the nazi's fixation on "racial" (in their concept) homogeneity/purity.

                  One is ideological, the other is racial.

                  After ten years of Ayatolla Tamaki's party in government, what do you think the legal position of homosexuality will be?

                  • Gosman

                    Not that I agree with either but there is a big difference. It is like the Communist party in the Soviet Union persecuting counter-revolutionaries and sending people who disagreed with them to re-education camps. It is seriously bad thing to do but it is not the same as promoting racial purity and eliminating those that do not meet your racial standards.

                    • McFlock

                      ISTR Stalin killed more people than Hitler.

                      Racial, ideological, religious, sexual. Those are the details. Fripperies.

                      The problem is the desire for homogeneity/purity. That always raises the problem of "what do we do with the ones already here"? Be they Jewish, political opponents, or gay.

                      That problem only has one solution.

                    • It is seriously bad thing to do but it is not the same as promoting racial purity and eliminating those that do not meet your racial standards.

                      To expand on McFlock's point immediately above (not that it needs expanding on, but my buttons have been pushed):

                      From the perspective of the people the Soviets were shooting into mass graves for belonging to the wrong class or whatever, the difference between that and the Nazis shooting people into mass graves for being Jewish wasn't a particularly significant one. It shouldn't be a very significant one for us either.

                  • feijoa

                    LOL McFlock above

                    DENSITY church…

                • lprent

                  It was an ethnic not religious persecution.

                  Yep. Much like the way that the Israeli’s treat the Palestinians and Arab Israelis today.

                  If you want to look at the religious persecutions of Jews for religious reasons, then the most extreme example would probably be Spain at the height of the Inquisitional period..

            • OnceWasTim 1.1.1.1.1.5

              Such a great Drag Queen name eh? Destiny Church. I see the same fashion advisers have been dressing many gNatz 'members' (Jennie the Ship, Jude, Pulla et al) for years.

              They should probably spare a thought for that retiree, tragedy on the hill in the Eastern suburbs of Wellington and design him a smoking jacket in paisley- that or give him a knighthood

              • WeTheBleeple

                Such a great Drag Queen name eh? Destiny Church.

                enlightened

                Aint that a sketch just waiting to happen. A totally conflicted religious drag queen.

            • Visubversa 1.1.1.1.1.6

              Well – perhaps "Bishop" Tamaki would like to have a little chat with the Jewish community about his demands that people give up their religion and their cultures when they come to "his" country.

        • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.2

          "But thanks for highlighting the fact labour wouldn’t rule it out if their retention of power depended on it"

          What a weird thing to claim, Tuppence; who exactly, "highlighted the fact" blah, blah, blah? Is there an authoritative Labour Party spokesperson here who can make such claims?? Who were you thanking? You seems quite misguided…

        • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.3

          2 months! For a serial killer???

          Softy.

          • lprent 1.1.1.3.1

            Potential SK… It is but a precautionary measure.

            But if they're obnoxious enough to treat Incognito as an official Labour Party spokesperson – then who knows what they're capable of?

        • greywarshark 1.1.1.4

          Pity this didn't work out like the Pied Piper of Hamelin story He attracted a following and they all went through a gap in the mountains which closed up and they Were Never Seen Again. Toot toot, toot sweet.

        • Matthew Hooton 1.1.1.5

          I don't think Labour even needs to say it would never work with Destiny, or vice versa, which is why National doesn't need to take Destiny seriously either. If Destiny ever had the balance of power, they'd just have to passively allow National to govern. They would be much less influential than Act or the Greens: more like some of the right-wing nutters in the Australian Senate.

          • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.5.1

            ” If Destiny ever had the balance of power, they’d just have to passively allow National to govern”
            Tell that to the Bish.

          • Incognito 1.1.1.5.2

            <sigh, again>

            Labour and National are not in the same position and unlikely to end up in the same position come the Election in 2020. To put it differently, National has no friends and needs them, badly, whilst Labour has choice(s).

            • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.5.2.1

              It might have choices now but debatable whether that will be the case after the election

              The last round of polls don't tell us much, but the trend over the past 12 months is NZ First failing to get back in and the Greens with their heads just above water.

              NZ First traditionally polls better on election day and the green traditionally poll worse than opinion polls.

              In the MMP era, minor parties in government rarely survive unless they win an electorate seat Think Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne, Tariana Turia, David Seymour etc.

              So don't sigh to loudly because Labour's "friends" will be in a fight for survival next year as neither of them will win electorate seats.

              Labour will still probably win in a head to head to race but I don't expect they will have both of their current partners in government next term.

              • Incognito

                I agree that anything is possible and nothing can or should be taken for granted not even the latest poll results. Labour’s choice also includes how it plays its card before the Election. It seems to me that the Coalition is working for all partners, by and large, and I’d like to think that they’d like to continue the partnership into a next Government. If so, they will work constructively with each other and in good faith to increase the chances of that happening. The way I see it is that they shouldn’t work to keep National out but to keep the current Coalition in. I think that’s the plan, anyway. But I could be wrong, of course.

    • lprent 1.2

      Ask Kate B to ask the question. I am confident what result she would get.

  2. mickysavage 2

    Gee so far we have had Dotcom referred to and a claim that because Labour has not ruled it out they would think of it too.

    Do I sense a degree of sensitivity?

    [lprent: The Dotcom comment is now in OpenMike. Either an obsessed un-fan or someone who can’t read legal decisions (and the government’s interesting legal position) . Either way it was diversionary and a false equivalence. ]

  3. Robert Guyton 3

    I think Simon's Destiny doesn't involve being in Government at all.

    • greywarshark 3.1

      I think Simon should be called Someone; he is fading like the Cheshire Cat.

      Alice in Wonderland is a rich field for analogies to politicians and their doings and not-ings.

      It is also through the Cheshire Cat that we learn the essential secret of Wonderland: it's mad!
      https://www.carleton.edu/departments/ENGL/Alice/FootCcat.html

      "How are you getting on?" said the Cat, as soon as there was mouth enough for it to speak with….Alice put down her flamingo, and began an account of the game, feeling very glad she had someone to listen to her…"

      The above, for instance. So open to interpretation!

      • Robert Guyton 3.1.1

        Judith Collins as the Red Queen?

        • greywarshark 3.1.1.1

          You're sparky. Have you had the Big Meeting?

          • Robert Guyton 3.1.1.1.1

            Tomorrow. My daughter's arrived back home from her peregrinations around the organic farms of the South Island and we're having fun around the table, discussing ideas in a lively fashion, whist I tap away here, hence the spark.

            • greywarshark 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Well I hope after the talk there is some grin left over for the meeting where you can continue to be sparky with a confident grin that will win the majority.

  4. Have a scroll through a Kiwiblog general debate thread on any given day and you'll find there's a significant level of support for the things Tamaki is saying among National's constituency. Why would you rule out working with a party when its views are reflected among your own supporters? Sounds like they're made for each other.

    • Robert Guyton 4.1

      "Have a scroll through a Kiwiblog general debate thread on any given day"

      Or enjoy a warm cup of DrainO, a Rolfing session, bamboo slivers under your fingernails or a bowl of junket garnished with finely-cut leopard-whiskers.

      • Gosman 4.1.1

        I like that you think the general level of debate here is much different. It isn't. It is just that you probably agree with the general thrust of topics here.

        • Robert Guyton 4.1.1.1

          You like that? Good. I have other similar views, such as; your view about the similarity between comments here and comments at Kiwiblog, is pish!

          • Robert Guyton 4.1.1.1.1

            Plus, Tuppence the serial killer is over there now; that can't help your claimed equivalency one bit!

        • Marcus Morris 4.1.1.2

          On the rare occasions that I have mistakenly drifted onto Kiwiblog I have been appalled at the level of pure vitriol and inane comment. Not saying that this blog is immune to that but for the most part the debate remains on topic.

          • woodart 4.1.1.2.1

            yes, the hate and misogyny that is allowed to fester on right wing sites is appalling.

        • greywarshark 4.1.1.3

          Gosman You obviously prefer us to Kiwiblog because you think we have more interesting discussions that you fasten on to like a leech, and even aim to fertilise so they grooooww. Good on you for finding a purpose to fill your dull life.

        • Psycho Milt 4.1.1.4

          … you think the general level of debate here is much different. It isn't.

          The difference has reduced since moderation was introduced over there, but is still substantial. I guess whether you notice that difference or not comes down to your level of tolerance for egregious racism, misogyny and general bigotry.

          • lprent 4.1.1.4.1

            The difference has reduced since moderation was introduced over there, but is still substantial.

            Yeah, it is amazing what a simple bit of moderation can do.

            Because the moderation has been so poor there, the struggle to get to a real moderated system will take some time. However it will be somewhat easier because of the tighter control about logins. This also allows for more moderate moderation than my usual insult efforts (designed to discourage re-offenders from just using a new handle).

            The usual issue on a social media system with a login is balancing the intent of the moderation against losing the feel of the site. It is really easy to discourage people from returning with better behaviour if their access can really be permanently barred. TDB was classic for that issue.

            On the other hand, it is a hell of a lot easier to comment here because we don’t have logins or a requirement for real emails. You’re therefore less likely to have police level issues or get on the curia/national email system (we don’t insist on real emails). And you can get back any time provided that the moderators don’t get irritated by repeated behaviours.

            On the other hand – acting up here typically gets a lot of stick from other commenters because we let a wide range in here without a filtering bully tick system.

            ‘Bullying’ tends to be restricted to moderators if they choose to exercise it, and there is always the random style with which we can (and I usually do) toss people out when they walk over the behavioural bounds. I literally toss a random number to decide just how much damage to inflict. It makes the risk taking so much more pleasant for all gamblers.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.5

          I’d like to think that the behaviour of commenters here is generally good to very good and they seem to understand the concept of self-moderation. I’d also think that commenters who are not receptive to self-moderation tend to be poor debaters. Robust debate is encouraged here but bad behaviour is not.

          Edit: I had not seen Lynn’s response @ 4.1.1.4.1.

      • greywarshark 4.1.2

        RG

        Your cuisine is so cute and exotic.

      • WeTheBleeple 4.1.3

        I prefer to masturbate with a cheese grater.

    • michelle 4.2

      national and destiny are made for each other like two pees in one pod aye

  5. WeTheBleeple 5

    But… It is their density.

    • greywarshark 5.1

      Aye Back to the Future. Wouldn't it be good to go back to some tipping point in time and do something different, we would all be just a bit higher up in the evolution of human beings from then instead of descending now. Someone was writing furiously in The Press this morning about all the things we should be doing after giving up plastic bags, and one was breeding. Bugger that, I am not going quietly into the night and leaving the world to machine minds and their Robot Controllers.

      • WeTheBleeple 5.1.1

        I was wondering who'd pick up the reference.



        Unless the globe is on-board, nobody has the power to control it. Just look at the debates that rage over sound facts… People wont wear inconvenient truths let alone a yoke. Power hungry muppets will get pushed back every time, but every time they cause damage.

        Coporate psychology needs to be called out and taken to task. Bending human minds to consume and conform mindlessly is a crime against humanity and nature. Live in a lie, you will eventually snap.

        Time for the people to wrest back control of the narrative. Daunting though that may be. It's for the good of all.

        • greywarshark 5.1.1.1

          I fear that's your density. But I mean that in the old way really – they used to say I fear meaning I doubt or I wonder.

  6. Stuart Munro. 6

    The Gnats would do better to retread the Maori party – wonder why they don't 🙂 .

    • lprent 6.1

      I suspect that the Maori (and the party members) have long memories about being shafted by political parties.

      After all you just have to look at the origins of that party.

      • Robert Guyton 6.1.1

        Their social conservatism held them prisoner to National and alienated them from the Left.

      • Stuart Munro. 6.1.2

        Quite – but after all they're grasping at every other straw – can't help feeling there may be some Gnat antipathy there too.

      • Gosman 6.1.3

        How were the Maori party shafted?

        • Robert Guyton 6.1.3.1

          Convincingly.

        • lprent 6.1.3.2

          Perhaps you should not look at the PR as being fact and have a look at statistics..

          You should look at the Doone report from 2000 and the Borrows report this year

          https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-responds-doone-report

          He addresses the causes of Maori offending and proposes practical steps to reduce Maori crime."The Report highlights the fact that Maori are over-represented at every stage of the criminal justice process. They are over 3 times more likely to be apprehended for a criminal offence than non-Maori and make up 51 percent of the prison population while being only 14 percent of the general population."However, the Report says that ethnicity itself is not a factor causing crime. The cause lies in Maori being over-represented in the social risk factors that contribute to criminal behaviour."Programmes effective in changing the behaviour of offenders or potential offenders need to address the risk factors.

          And

          https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12238664

          "Far too many New Zealanders feel the system has not dealt with them fairly, compassionately or with respect – and in many cases has caused more harm."

          He said Māori – who make up 51 per cent of those in prisons but only about 15 per cent of the population – bore the brunt of the legacy of colonisation.

          "This legacy is actually a gross unfairness and something we should not tolerate in New Zealand.

          "There is widespread recognition that at every point in their lives, and over generations, Māori experience disadvantage that increases the risk they will come into contact with the criminal justice system."

          Borrows said those who enter the justice system should not just be thought of as innocent or guilty, but also as offenders are often victims of social circumstances.

          Even with dressing up parts of the latter report with the usual bullshit that is the National parties base’s basic attitudes about crime (and barely concealed racism) , can’t conceal what the numbers show.

          It doesn't matter what area of the overall picture with Maori you look at (apart from the few at the top of the Iwi corporates), the picture worsened or barely kept pace with previous stats over the years that the Maori party were in coalition with National

          Ultimately that was what cost them their base of support. It isn't hard to find this out. Talk to just about any Maori voters who aren't part of iwi corporates about the fate of the Maori party.

          Perhaps you’d like to find some stats that counter-act this. Although you can see why National appear to have deliberately screwed up the census several times over their reign

        • michelle 6.1.3.3

          We all voted for labour cause we got sick of watching them ( the maori party ) licking national boots

          • I feel love 6.1.3.3.1

            Yep, I was a Maori Party voter/supporter until they joined National, closest I ever got to voting National, yech.

            • WeTheBleeple 6.1.3.3.1.1

              I know right. They had some great ideas that all got squashed. Shame about that.

          • marty mars 6.1.3.3.2

            I went to Mana and then gave Met two ticks last time. Frankly all seems a waste at the moment.

            • McFlock 6.1.3.3.2.1

              I get a little bit of hope that the bullshitters are bullshitting "solutions" to problems they denied existing five years ago.

              And that real solutions are entering the political discourse, and beginning to be adopted.

              And we wouldn't be in even that position now if we hadn't walked the path we've walked. Sure, there might be a better path, but nobody else seems to know how to get onto it if it's there.

    • michelle 6.2

      you can only tread on someone for so long mr munroe

      • Stuart Munro. 6.2.1

        I think the Gnat logic – that you can fool most of the people some of the time – suffers from diminishing returns. The more they do it, the less it works.

  7. WeTheBleeple 7

    Let's see if this joke causes outrage or humor, I'm not so good at reading a room I use others to gauge the acceptability of stuff that's likely a bit 'edgy'.

    Hannah: Brian, does this dress make me look fat?

    Brian: No, but it makes you look like a WHORE!

    • The Al1en 7.1

      In equally poor taste…

      Hannah: Do these Doc Martens go well with these dungarees?

      Brian: Earthquake

    • greywarshark 7.2

      I don't think it would be politically wise, and we should never forget about perceptions, as it would draw the ire of many women and make them feel that she needs support.

      And she does look smaller and vulnerable next to Brain, who could match the Don – almost like twins who have a common parent and been separated at birth. There is a film in this – or maybe a cartoon vid. Their coming together would make a great media event wouldn't it. Now that's a bad joke.

      • WeTheBleeple 7.2.1

        It's a tough game playing the edge within an environment of faux outrage. While the joke is aimed at antiquated sexist views aka biblical women bashing, some would take it as sexist and be outraged as a matter of convenience – finding something more to be upset about. I'm interested if the initial reaction gets a smile or a snarl from women, but not the permanently angry ones…

        I have reason to be permanently angry, but it's simply exhausting.

        I like the Alien's joke too: had to think about it for a tick.

        • greywarshark 7.2.1.1

          I think you two are closer to the zeitgeist of today's young.

          What about – No but it makes you look like a WHORE. Drop to your knees.

          • WeTheBleeple 7.2.1.1.1

            I was just out (electric) whicker snickering some garden edges. Bunch of schoolkids went past. Nice garden! Next thing we're talking climate change and food miles.

            Still in touch, despite the grey moving in on the chin.

            – on the joke, I’d be more inclined to extend it with a biblical rant of biblical proportions 😀

        • Robert Guyton 7.2.1.2

          Think Chch.
          I’d have written, Earthquake!!

    • KJT 7.3

      "Simon, I am your father".

      "Judith, it is your destiny".

      Sorry. Couldn't resist.

  8. Shadrach 8

    "There is a National caucus meeting this morning. I understand there will be a push for Curia polling to be presented to the meeting so that MPs can assess which public poll is more accurate and how bad to the party is."

    Now that is more interesting than the musings about the Bishop. If I was an MP in a political party led by someone with Bridges apparent level of support, I would be demanding to see the Curia poll every week.

    • greywarshark 8.1

      I wonder if Bridges being Maori and National RW being racist at base, is part of the scenario. If he fails, it doesn't bounce back on the basic National planners who can say they gave Maori a chance in an equality step, but they feel Maori are not quite up to handling the rigours of leadership for the country, and at this late stage of the three year cycle they have to build up and prepare someone pakeha and that it should be a man.

      • Shadrach 8.1.1

        Lot of assumptions there. Do you have anyone in mind? National seem to have exactly the same problem Labour had for 9 years – up against a popular PM with no-one near capable of matching him/her. Except, perhaps, one smiling chesire cat!

    • Incognito 8.2

      Have you tried the search function on the National Party website?

  9. Robert Guyton 9

    "There is a National caucus meeting this morning. I understand there will be a push"

    'kay.

  10. infused 10

    labour wouldnt rule them out in the same position. no one does. key was the only person to rule someone out.

    • infused 10.1

      not that I wouldn't rule them out. bunch of fucking idiots.

    • McFlock 10.2

      OK, let's game it.

      Labour need density to be in government, grn/nz1/lab insufficient. Do Lab go with density, and if so what do you think happens to lab support given their current support base?

      Nat/dens only option for nats to govern, do they go with density and if so what would happen to their support given their current support base?

      Seems to me that Lab don't need to rule out electoral suicide.

  11. Ken 11

    National might as well lie down with dogs…….it's already got fleas.

  12. AB 12

    I don't think National will be stupid enough to get too close to Destiny. Colin Craig and Graham Capill should be sufficient warning. They need to find social conservatives where the religious element is more subdued and in the background – such as United Future. Is the bouffant exemplar of 'common sense' due for a comeback?

    Other than that, I do find it interesting that National's natural partners come from the most socially regressive corners of society with a taste for hierarchy and authoritarian control. Fascism is essentially capitalism under threat – and we do know historically that capital will align itself with such regressive forces when it has to – even if it also has to hold its nose while doing so. Though I guess we are a long way from that yet.

  13. Rae 13

    Simon Bridges is reminding me more of Colin Craig everyday, a man with what seems like a complete lack of self awareness.

  14. Observer Tokoroa 14

    I have a feeling…

    that Brian Tamaki has run out of money

    might have to sell the bikes and stuff …

    That's why he has changed his mind about the lesbians and gays. All of whom he despised a week or two ago.

  15. swordfish 15

    Micky

    There is a National caucus meeting this morning. I understand there will be a push for Curia polling to be presented to the meeting so that MPs can assess which public poll is more accurate and how bad to the party is.

    HDPA (Newstalk ZB) yesterday:

    I have a reasonable idea of what the political parties own internal polling is showing, or what they are prepared to say it’s showing, and both sides seem to be saying roughly the same thing, which is that neither of these polls are totally right.

    It’s not the case of one of them being rogue and one of them being right, it’s a case that neither of them got it right.

    From what I’m hearing, the polling is more like this. Labour is sitting at 46 per cent or thereabouts. National is floating around between the 40 per cent and 44 per cent mark, depending on what kind of day they are having. That has not been reflected in either of these polls.

    But, then, UMR's Stephen Mills (Politics, Nine to Noon, RNZ) also yesterday … suggests the Nats are doing a little poorer than this in Labour's Internal polling:

    But I think we've had National sort of at high 30s for a while and Labour kind of mid to high 40s, not 50 as the Reid Research one did.

    • Pat 15.1

      and theyre still polls and face all the same problems with methodology as the public ones.

      • swordfish 15.1.1

        Da, Comrade, Da …

        … but it's been speculated by one Master Matthew Hooton (yesterday on RNZ Nine to Noon Politics & UMR's Stephen Mills appeared to concur) that the Public Polls are cheaper & less innovative in their methodology (Media companies being skint)… with significantly more money being lavished on premium, cutting-edge methodologies in the Internals.

        Mills went on to suggest the Internals use a larger sample … but I strongly doubt that. Both Colmar Brunton & Reid Research use a sample of around 1000, UMR has traditionally used 750. Have no idea about Curia, though.

        • ankerawshark 15.1.1.1

          I was surveyed by Curia last night. They first spoke with my husband who didn't want to do the poll, so it seemed I would do. They didn't gather any demographic details which surprized me (other than asking if I had children under 18 living at home)…………I was turned down to do another poll some months back because they asked me some demographic questions first and eliminated me, cause they had too many in the sample who were my age, gender etc.

        • Pat 15.1.1.2

          yes, i heard Hootens rant…cutting edge, the mind boggles.

    • swordfish 15.2

      So … to head down the precarious road of informed speculation

      I'm gonna guess that, on average over the last few months,

      Curia (National Internals) have been somewhere around:

      Lab 46%, Nat 42%, Green+NZF 9% (Govt 55% / Oppo 43%)

      And UMR (Labour Internals) something in the region of:

      Lab 47%, Nat 38%, Green+NZF 12% (Govt 59% / Oppo 39%)

      Speculative Internal Average:

      Lab 46.5%, Nat 40%, Green+NZF 10.5 (Govt 57% / Oppo 41%)

      And now the Average of the two newly-released Public Polls:

      Lab 46.4%, Nat 40.7%, Green+NZF 10% (Govt 56.4% / Oppo 41.6%)

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