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National’s urban wing moves against Collins

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, September 15th, 2021 - 106 comments
Categories: Judith Collins, national, polls, same old national - Tags:

Events this afternoon have confirmed that Judith Collins is indeed toast.

The right does not tolerate failure.  They would eat their young for political advantage.  Continuous polling failure and the prospect of three more years of progressive rule will cause them to act, urgently.  No matter what the circumstances are.

This afternoon the latest UMR result was predictably leaked.

The results were:

  • Lab: 45.0%
  • Nat: 26.0%
  • ACT: 13.0%
  • Grn: 6.0%
  • NZF: 4.1%

But then the public declaration of National Party civil war occurred.

The Taxpayers Union released a Curia poll suggesting that these results were actually not too bad and National’s situation was much more dire.  Chief Executive Jordan Williams, who featured prominantly in the book Dirty Politics inter alia for treatment of women which was, shall we say, less than optimal, has expressed concern that women are flocking to the left.

They will need to sort this out.  But I don’t think that Jordan is the person to do it.

The results were:

  • Lab: 45.8%
  • Nat: 21.3%
  • ACT: 14.9%
  • Grn: 9.6%
  • NZF: 2.7%

The release of Kiwiblog’s David Farrar’s poll for the National sock puppet Taxpayer’s Union suggests that tolerance for Judith Collins reign is now over.  A clearer declaration of civil war is not possible.

I am not surprised.  Her past week has been disastrous, even worse than any other week of her past year.  Even the Hamish Price blue shoes episode was not so bad.

So the spill is on.  I don’t think they will wait.  I suspect it will happen during the next week.

The problem is that the alternative leader choices are dire.  Maybe someone who has been hit by lightning three times may be the choice, even though she is fucking useless.  The lack of alternatives may save Judith at least for now.

Typical National, caring more about their god given right to rule than caring about getting the country through a global pandemic that so far we have handled very well.

The rest of us are grappling with a pandemic.  National is more interested in sorting out an internal civil war.

106 comments on “National’s urban wing moves against Collins ”

  1. Sacha 1

    Collins will be praying Auckland stays in level 4 longer so her caucus cannot gather in Wellington to finish her off.

  2. Andre 2

    Hang in there JuDarth!

    Billy took the party to 20.93% in an actual election, but he went on to become Proim Munster! You can do it!

  3. observer 3

    Obviously Collins will be replaced soon, but that won't be the end of the matter. Either she stays in Parliament, and in the headlines, providing nasty quotes to undermine the next leader … or she quits and there's a by-election in Papakura. Both problematic for National.

    (The 3rd option, Collins staying for 2 years and behaving herself, will happen when hell freezes over).

    • woodart 3.1

      biggest prob with replacing collins is that their are no clear leaders in their carcass. to many ego's and not enough team players . whoever gets a turn at the wheel of the natanic will need the old back armor to stop the knives.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1.1

        natanic laugh

        Shows Prime Minister John Key as the captain of a ship named 'Natanic'. Refers to the sinking of the 'Titanic' and the problems besetting the National Party – Skycity convention centre and pokie machines, Mr Dotcom etc.
        Fairfax Media Limited (Firm). Evans, Malcolm Paul, 1945- :’Natanic’. 19 April 2012. Evans, Malcolm Paul, 1945- :Digital cartoons. Ref: DCDL-0020978. Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand. https://natlib.govt.nz/records/30651770

        And yet the ‘good’ ship Key lasted another five years.

    • Papakura 2020

      National 19420

      Labour 13837

      Could she have lost National the electorate by 5583 votes?????

      • Incognito 3.2.1

        Easily!

        Party Vote:

        National Party 14854

        Labour Party 17106

        Labour wins.

        https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/electorate-details-38.html

        • observer 3.2.1.1

          Yes. And National lost the Northland by-election, defending a more comfortable majority than Papakura today. By-elections are inherently unpredictable. The choice of candidate is crucial, ACT could surge and embarrass National, a "none of the above" candidate could get the protest vote, and so on.

          Even if National retain the seat, a headline saying "party holds on but does even worse than disastrous election in 2020" does them no good at all. They would need a stonking win.

          • Incognito 3.2.1.1.1

            A large proportion of the ACT party voters went for Collins on the candidate vote (74.16% of 3,525 votes and only 20.91% to the ACT candidate). Under the current circumstances, it would seem this might not be the case if there were a by-election held in the foreseeable future, i.e., those votes would likely go towards an ACT and/or Labour candidate – NZF is toast, which complicates the picture and Labour and Green votes should vote smarter (!) and shift towards a Labour candidate in a by-election. One could argue that Collins pulled in the votes and that without her personal pull the electorate would be lost for National

            This is a Catch-22 for National: ditch Collins, trigger a by-election and likely lose it or keep Collins on or happy (!) at least and lose in the opinion polls because Collins is now pushing away potential voters benefitting ACT mostly, it seems.

            • mickysavage 3.2.1.1.1.1

              And if Act had a candidate …

            • CrimzonGhost 3.2.1.1.1.2

              Don't count out nzf out yet their vote is on rise again and their are probably quite a few Nats who might bail on a sinking Nat Party but yet still can't stomach ACT, Still some old Muldoonist Nats around.

              [For the third time: changed your user name to the approved one. Please be more careful next time]

          • froggleblocks 3.2.1.1.2

            Winston Peters.

            • CrimzonGhost 3.2.1.1.2.1

              Yes, if he stood in a Papakura byelection he could possibly pull off a northland all over again or at least eat a large chunk of Collins lunch and raise nzf profile & vote in the process.

              [For the second time: changed your user name to the approved one. Please be more careful next time]

  4. coreyjhumm 4

    This is disastrous for National. Good. They deserve it. No opposition party has been more reckless and disgraceful than they have been in the last 18 months and no opposition has ever been further from power , even in 2002 when nats got 19% the center to right parties were only 3 seats behind the left.

    I keep seeing people say this is exactly like labour under the key years, no labour didn't root for the earthquakes during keys term, labour didn't attack and divide the country during times of crisis, labour was just "meh" "boring " "lol labour are hopeless" by the public, national is "god I hate them" "losers" "disgraceful" , it's not going to be easy for the nats to recover from the hate the country has for them over their antics over covid , a new leader is just painting over the cracks. But it's a start, at keys peak labour had the greens nzf UF Maori and mana that they could theoretically work with national has act.

    I would have thought labour would be higher. Times if crisis and all that… What I want to see is polling that tells me if 45% is their temporary new high brought on by the crisis that will bleed away and if so where that vote goes to (act or nzf I'd guess?) Or if the crisis hasn't changed numbers much.

    I honestly don't mind act being at 15% the higher they go the further they are from power and honestly on speech, lgbt issues and just holding the govt to account they are far more preferable to the nats.

    I'm actually happy to see nzf polling well, without nzf wed be in a fifth term of a national govt probably with an English majority,Ardern would have been in the dust bin of history and nzlp would be terminal. He actually contributed a lot to the nz left and nobody hates the nats more than Winston… NOONE.

    Still… I wish TOP would get more love, I've only voted Labour and the greens before but I'm going to vote for TOP next time.

    I'd like a labour /top/green govt over a labour/green govt.

    Either way… See ya Judy

    • Gypsy 4.1

      "and no opposition has ever been further from power "

      Mmm, not quite. Nat's numbers are 26% and 21%. In the run up to the 2014 election, Labour were regularly polling in the mid 20's. Their low was 22% in the period 6-10 Sep (interestingly the Greens were polling in the mid teens). 2011 was better, but in at least two polls in Nov 2011 they were under 25% (again the Greens were polling in the mid teens).

      I remember commentators writing off Labour as a political force during the Key years, while some desperately tried to write up every new Labour leader as the 'game changer'.

      Politics is to some degree cyclical. Now is Labour's turn, and good luck to them. But no party is born to govern, no matter what the right may think.

  5. Incognito 5

    Bring back Bridges

  6. Gosman 6

    I thought the Taxpayers Union was meant to be an ACT party astroturf organisation.

  7. Anne 7

    I'm not sure I believe that Curia poll. Easy to manipulate a poll by way of pre-selecting what parts of the country you're going to conduct the survey. Indeed I wouldn't put Williams and Farrar past any form of sculduggery as demonstrated by Dirty Politics.

    Why does just about everything associated with National have a smell about it? Not surprised Chris Finlayson all but physically ran out of parliament buildings when he retired swearing – iirc- never to set foot in the place again.

    • Gypsy 7.1

      The curia poll is nonsense. The timing is just too convenient. I understand ACT had an email out to it's supporters tonight bragging about their support level. It all seems jjust too convenient.

      • Incognito 7.1.1

        Feel free to leak post the e-mail here in full wink

        • Gypsy 7.1.1.1

          smiley

          Sorry, I'm not a member or supporter, so I'm not one of the lucky ones.

          • Incognito 7.1.1.1.1

            Pity, I’m sure we all could do with a good laugh. Maybe Gosman could share it …

            • Gosman 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Because you asked so nicely…

              "Dear Xxxx–

              Two polls out today are great news for the ACT Party.

              A poll prepared by Curia Research for the Taxpayers Union has ACT on our highest result in our 25-year history – 15%, almost double what we got on election night.

              Another poll carried out by UMR, taken a few weeks before the Curia poll, had ACT on 13%.

              Importantly, both polls have the centre right as a block on a higher result than election night in 2020.

              ACT has been able to thrive because of your support and commitment to the Party. We thank you for that.

              If you’d like to support us financially, please donate so we can continue to run campaigns that will change the Government at the next election. Every dollar we raise goes towards resourcing us to get our messages out to New Zealanders.

              DONATE HERE

              Thank you again for your support, we will continue to work hard for you in Wellington.

              Yours sincerely,

              David Seymour

              ACT Leader "

            • Gosman 7.1.1.1.1.2

              Btw I know for a fact that this was not prepared before the poll result so there isn't any sinister element from that side. ACT party people are as genuinely surprised by the result as everyone else.

              • Incognito

                All good. We already suspected that DP is confined mainly to some people in and associated with National. ACT are a good bunch, IMO, and I hope they rise higher in the polls because they play a much better and more cunning game than that self-destructive shambles that is called National.

              • Gypsy

                All good. Apologies for any aspersions cast.

              • Gypsy

                Just by way of follow up on a previous comment I made to you about Simon Court…the environmental group i am involved with is still in contact with him, and he is taking a practical interest in what we are doing, and has been attentive to our concerns.

                • Incognito

                  Is that your tree project still?

                  • Gypsy

                    I haven't provided details here, and I don't intend starting now, other than to say it is not about trees per se. It's about the conservation of flora and fauna more widely. But share with me what you were thinking it was.

                    • Incognito

                      Something like protecting trees from being cut down? Always a good cause, unless they become a safety hazard that cannot be remedied by trimming and pruning. Often a question of money and regulations, of course. The red tape is never far away.

                  • Gypsy

                    "Something like protecting trees from being cut down?"

                    What I'm involved with is more to do with wider ecosystem conservation. So more than just trees. But sure, that intersects with tree protection, and I know a lot of people working in that space.

                    "…unless they become a safety hazard that cannot be remedied by trimming and pruning."

                    Of course. Trees don't last forever, ánd they need managing, in both public and private spaces. But there are ways of transitioning appropriately.

                    "Often a question of money and regulations, of course. The red tape is never far away."

                    Some key decision makers in Auckland are making appalling decisions around conservation on public lands. A recent case in point was the single phase removal of the pine stand at Western Springs forest. If there was ever a case study in stupidity by elected and un-elected officials, that was it.

          • Incognito 7.1.1.1.2

            Found it!

  8. Cricklewood 8

    Shane Reti is prob about their best bet given the current environment…

  9. Stuart Munro 9

    National's next PM has yet to regrow to adulthood from severed tentacles.

    I guess that doesn't rule out Simian Brown.

    • Anne 9.1

      Simeon Brown of course. He's a natural leader. Got a great future ahead of him. Somebody ought to ask him. He will be able to confirm it. devil

      • Stuart Munro 9.1.1

        Even now, in some cthonic pit, a freshly spawned Gnat, having gorged itself on its weaker siblings, is dragging itself hissing and squalling towards the fierce light of the world outside. Red in tooth and claw, slimier than John Key, and lower than Whaleoil's soul, it is the natural choice to lead a party of antediluvian monsters.

        • Anne 9.1.1.1

          Good Lord. I be having nightmares tonight.surprise

        • mac1 9.1.1.2

          Wow, Stuart Munro, WB Yeats in The Second Coming scarcely approached your apocalyptic vision.

          "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
          Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
          The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
          The ceremony of innocence is drowned."

          Written in 1919 it is in part inspired by the end of WW1 and in part by the 1918-19 Influenza pandemic. Yeats' wife nearly died of this disease which was especially severe upon pregnant women as she was.

          "And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
          Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"

          • Stuart Munro 9.1.1.2.1

            I always liked Yeats.

            Fortunately, the Gnats have forgotten NZ is a democracy for the moment – they're long on monstrosity, but couldn't make a public interest argument to save their scaly integuments.

            • AB 9.1.1.2.1.1

              "I always liked Yeats"

              There are a few of us left, though time takes no prisoners. Janet Frame had something to say about it in Living in the Maniototo:

              "I found myself searching the bookshelves of each room to find the poems of Yeats, and realising that there was no Yeats, I felt an unreasonable sense of loss… A house without Yeats."

              • mac1

                Driving in Yeats' country in northern Clare, we came upon a sign that said Yeats' tower. We had already been to Coole and seen a few swans and seen an island in the middle of Innisfree. We turned down the side road but it was a Monday and the tower was closed.

                I could not stand in the tower where Yeats wrote as I later was able to in the Boathouse where Dylan Thomas wrote such as Over St Johns Hill with its 'hawk on fire' to match Yeats' falcon.

      • Chris 9.1.2

        I've been feeling down this morning reading reports about Collins' imminent departure but mention of Simeon Brown as leader has perked me up as a reminder of the high likelihood her replacement will be just as useless.

    • Paul Campbell 9.2

      I'm pretty sure you're wrong, Muldoon has been cloned, full boys-from-Brazil style – there are 4 of them already in parliament, bullet headed balding 50-something white guys – one has already had a go at being dear-leader, Luxon is the 'taliban' candidate

      In fact if you squint at Judith there's a bit of Muldoon there too …

      • Stuart Munro 9.2.1

        Muldoon borrowed two elements from Lee Kuan Yew – a smattering of economic policy which, poor though it was, eclipses anything National has considered since, and a determination to rule – some said he had the soul of a dictator. But he was an actual patriot, and meant well for NZ, albeit within his economic paradigm.

        The same can not be said of Luxon luxoff or any of the other bald wannabes – self serving wazzocks the lot of them, with neither an economic clue nor any loyalty to NZ – they'd all sign up with Slomo tomorrow if he'd have them.

        • Gezza 9.2.1.1

          I’ve seen / heard more than one historian or pundit, looking back, conclude that, altho it wasn’t so obvious in those Labour – workers, National – farmers, employers & top-end of town times, Mulders was actually a socialist.

  10. Dean Reynolds 10

    COVID & climate change have finally convinced thousands of NZ voters that the neo lib mantra of small government, tax cuts for the wealthy, selling off state assets, etc. is simply BS. The Nat carcass, however still cling to this nonsense which means that they're howling into the void. Regardless of who their new leader is, they'll remain an irrelevant rabble until they either accept the doctrine of strong, effective government, or they simply disappear.

    As someone who's loathed the vile National party for 50 years, I can't describe how delighted I am to see them self destruct.

  11. Pete 11

    Judith is more effective for Act than any of their MPs and more beneficial to Labour than most of its MPs.

  12. observer 12

    Party vote numbers make the headlines, but the less publicised numbers tell the underlying story. Two trends especially: 1) right v wrong track, and 2) favourability of leaders.

    Check out the numbers here … the "unfavourable" responses for the PM are remarkably low, as they were in 2020. But Bridges is no better than Collins:

    https://twitter.com/nealejones/status/1438022025197408259

  13. Tricledrown 13

    Collins keeps digging a deaper hole attacking her former press secretary trump style lashing out wildy as claimed by Janet Wilson so Collins must be walking on very thin ice given ACT are nipping at their heels..given whats happening every time Collins opens her mouth Nationals popularity goes down.

    • gsays 13.1

      It is a damning observation of 'the right' that all Act has to do is tweet the occasional dog whistle from it's leader, keep the newbie Maps mouths shut and rise in the polls.

  14. UMR is a Labour commissioned poll that appears to consistently understate the Green vote.

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 14.1

      UMR is not 'labour commisioned' at all.

      They do regular monthly polling like most professional polling companies. They might have 15 topics each time mostly for business reasons

      UMR does the 'political question' for its corporate customers which is the one leaked every month.

      When its doing polling for Labour you wont hear about it because like Nationals polls the results are closely held….

  15. gsays 15

    I couldn't help myself.

  16. Tricledrown 16

    Chris Bishop was asked many questions about Judith Collins he couldn't answer any questions kept shifting sideways then had a cry baby excuse for crusher.No wonder the tobacco industry employed him as their spin doctors .How to blame shift 101.

  17. Stephen D 17

    With the Nats caucus being the size it is, a drop into the teens would surely but jobs at risk. That’s when the ever being sharpened knives with actually come out of hiding.

    • Incognito 17.1

      I think all kitchen utensils are out of the drawer now, even the teaspoons. It’s a telltale sign of a messy divorce and don’t mind the kids, they’re just pawns in an unwinnable fight between broken people.

    • mac1 18.1

      When even your press secretaries can no longer deal with the spin……

      • Gezza 18.1.1

        Well … ex-chief press secretary, according to Collins. Who says she kept her on initially as was Muller's, & basically puts it down to pique on the part of Janet Wilson at eventually being let go … or summat along those lines.

        Must admit when I heard that I was a bit surprised Wilson came out swinging at her. I would've thought it was a tad disloyal & inappropriate, given her status as a former employee.

        Smacks of formerly running with the hare & now hunting with the hounds.

        Shouldn't think Janet will be in the running for Press Secretary for any successor leader of National – or any of their portfolio spokespeople either, for that matter. 😐

        • Gezza 18.1.1.1

          I seem to have lost the edit function in my last couple of comments.

          Using my iPad.

          Anybody else having the same issue?

          • roblogic 18.1.1.1.1

            try switching Javascript back on?!?

            • Gezza 18.1.1.1.1.1

              I didn't switch it off today, R. Just checked, & it's still on.

              Edit was working fine this morning.

              How's your iPad working now, btw? Able to type in the text box today?

              • roblogic

                from my brief check the site seems to be unchanged for iPad 🙁

                • Gezza

                  Very puzzling. I'm finding since late this afternoon that I'm needing to quit & restart Safari to be able enter text in the Reply box again.

                  And I'm not getting the Edit option appearing at the bottom once I post (I greatly miss this since, altho I DO try to check my typing before hitting Submit Comment, I unfortunately too often seem to do my best proof- reading AFTER posting! 🙄 )

                  At least I'm not needing to do an iPad restart before I can enter text, & it's the work of only a few seconds to hit my TS bookmark & be able to post again.

                  Yesterday & this morning it was fine, a real improvement. Bit of a headscratcher.

        • Kevin Warburton 18.1.1.2

          Unless she's going to bat as a proxy of some Nat leadership contender who just might win.

          • Gezza 18.1.1.2.1

            Hmmm. Yes, good thinking. Could indeed be the case. Be interesting to watch any new leader’s office appointments.

  18. Tricledrown 19

    Roblogic no one wants the poisoned chalice but if crushhed Collins looses any more ground the Association of Conspiacy Theorists may have to keep a seat like Epsom for National to remain in parliament.

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 19.1

      Tamaki would do that for Auckland. Not really much chance they will dip below 20% in MMP which guarantees seats at that level.

  19. Jerry 20

    Well stated Micky

  20. rod 21

    Collins would be a sensation on Give us a clue. Move over Paula.smiley

  21. Sacha 22

    Nat caucus still talking to Tova. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/09/a-national-party-leadership-challenge-for-judith-collins-is-stirring-and-may-not-be-far-away.html

    Collins refused to be interviewed on Thursday and her deputy Dr Shane Reti wouldn't stop to chat either. But plenty of MPs spoke anonymously to Newshub.

    These are quotes from just a few:

    • "Simon Bridges could easily get the numbers"
    • The party's on a "trajectory of horror"
    • "The pressure is getting to her"
    • Gezza 22.1

      They must be bloody desperate if they think re-selecting Simon Bridges to lead them again can pull them out of the sh** hole Muller & now Collins have dug for them.

      Bridges has got a huge metaphorical “kick me” sign on his back with the Press Gallery, imo.

      They really are in a bind.

  22. JeffB 23

    Another scathing article from Hooton in the Herald (premium)

    The Curia poll had National on 19% unprompted and 21% when prompted, Labour 39% unprompted and 46% when prompted. Only 15% support for National for under 40 years and 16% for women.

    He’s not confident of them changing anytime soon as they are too far up themselves

  23. Gezza 24

    Farrar put some cautionary, hopeful vote-winning advice for National up on Kiwiblog last night, tho making no reference to Collins specifically by name …

    “There is obviously some speculation around leadership. I would caution against a belief that changing leader is some magic wand that fixes everything. If voters are unsure about National, I’m not sure going from four leaders in four years to five leaders in four years will improve things.”

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2021/09/advice_for_national.html

  24. Sacha 25

    Jo Moir does not rate the other guy's (re)leadership prospects either. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/judith-collins-the-master-of-her-own-death-spiral

    Bridges' brand might be on the rise with those most politically engaged but talk to traditional National voters in the regions and when you mention Bridges, they make the same exhausted groaning noise they did when he was rolled by Todd Muller in May last year.

    That gives Collins breathing space and even when her full caucus does return to Wellington, MPs will likely allow a period for the air to clear from a lockdown crisis before spending time looking internally again.

    It could give Collins a month or more to change the narrative, if she’s prepared to listen to the criticism and take it onboard constructively.

    • Gezza 25.1

      My reading of Collins (disappointedly, becos we need a mature, focussed & cohesive Opposition) is that she is congenitally gaffe-prone. 😐

      She completely mis-reads how she’s perceived with her “withering wit”. There’s just no way folk are going to see her as a level-headed, future PM.

    • Kevin Warburton 25.2

      Don't really like Bridges but he was somewhat a victim of vestigial racism and outright classism within national and wider elites re …media/elites mudslinging his kiwi accent.

  25. KJT 26

    Hopefully Collins brave sacrifice for the future success of Aotearoa, staying in there and keeping National out of power, will continue.

  26. Kevin Warburton 27

    Don't really like Bridges but he was somewhat a victim of vestigial racism and outright classism within national and wider elites re …media/elites mudslinging his kiwi accent.

  27. georgecom 28

    Collin today saying she won't quit and feels secure as leader. I am sure Caesar felt secure in the days before receiving a knife in the back

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