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notices and features - Date published:
2:02 pm, February 3rd, 2016 - 41 comments
Categories: jobs -
Tags: no right turn, unemployment
From I/S at No Right Turn…
28,000 unemployed under National
The Labour Market Statistics were released today, showing that unemployment has dropped to 5.3%. But while its (finally) a move in the right direction, there are still 133,000 unemployed – 28,000 more than when National took office.
When I started this series, it was out of a sense that unemployment statistics were a basic bullshit check on National’s promises of prosperity. Six years on, its clear that they simply haven’t delivered. There are more people out of work now than there were then. Sure, there was a financial crisis – but that ended four years ago. There were two earthquakes – but we’re meant to be well into the “rebuild”. And meanwhile, high unemployment just continues to drag on and on and on, while all the government does is make excuses.
New Zealanders expect more and deserve more than that. We need a government which will actually get people back into decent, high-paying jobs. National won’t do that. Time for somebody who will.
NZ jobless rate fell to 5.3% in Q4. More than forecast but due to 14k leaving workforce. Jobs growth met forecasts. https://t.co/7RFSdbpQXd
— Bernard Hickey (@bernardchickey) February 2, 2016
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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I thought the unemployment rate always dropped at this time of the year due to Summer seasonal employment. Come March/April when the seasonal stuff (eg, fruit picking etc.) dries up then unemployment increases again.
You don’t keep a lid on wages unless you have high unemployment.
SOP for National.
National lies about absolutely everything.
Why would anyone trust their shonkey employment numbers?
I think they are more likely to be around the 7% mark
You are an idiot. The numbers are Stats NZ numbers. If you think they are politically manipulated then you need to take a lesson as to how govt works in this country.
Stats NZ have pretty clearly shown in the past couple of years that they’re not above having their independence compromised.
By manipulating data? I would expect the compromise coming in the form of what is measured and how it is measured.
Enough…
I doubt that you are an idiot, more a thoughtful sceptic. And rightly so. The government can massage numbers and methods and targeted people. The Thatcher government if I remember correctly, changed their methods of unemployment measurement a number of times. Comparisons can never be made then on an equal basis, ie the old saying that you can’t compare apples with oranges applies.
And at the base of all our shonky, supposedly clear statistics on labour in this country, is the one that used to apply (probably still does) that someone doing one hour of paid work in a week is counted as employed. Coldly and statistically yes, though it’s a stretch. As an indication of true levels of unemployment such stats are not useful information of the like that Heyden declares so arrogantly and ignorantly. The numbers are Stats NZ numbers. If you think they are politically manipulated then you need to take a lesson as to how govt works in this country.
English has kept spending into the economy and has consequently kept a lid on unemployment.
He will be looking at short term ways to push the number even lower, in the run up to elections in 16-18 months.
Treasury definitely now gets pump-priming into a low-growth economy. Key understands it principally as a signal to the broader private developer investment community.
Sooner or later Treasury will get around to figuring out which expenditure onto needed stuff generates the most short-term and long-term jobs, and adjust how they spend accordingly.
Neo-Keynsians all of them, obviously.
Most of the spending has been very poorly targeted however – English is no Keynesian – he lacks the discipline – which is why he never produces real realised growth and jobs.
‘14% left the workforce’ in summer – when it is more usual for the workforce to grow.
This tells us that the austerity driven recession is not relenting at all.
This is why the left are in opposition, you never celebrate good things, instead always looking for the negatives.
You’re hatred for key, and the right, completely consumes and blinds you.
I sure don’t hate Key; he’s popular and charismatic.
I just have higher expectations.
Why would people think that irrelevant clown is in charge of this govt anyway? pffft
This.
When things are going well overall and you have some parties saying how bad everything is the voters will simply stop listening because what you say is not what they’re seeing.
But then the left would just say the voters are stupid for not voting for them anyway
so we are to celebrate that ‘only’ 28.000 more people are unemployed since National took office.
You have a funny way of picking stuff for celebration.
PR is just living up to his name – a ‘will o’the wisp’ etc. Puckish means playful, mischievous.
But – will-o’-the-wisp – is quite suitable as a description of him/her.
a phosphorescent light seen hovering or floating at night on marshy ground, thought to result from the combustion of natural gases.
a person or thing that is difficult or impossible to reach or catch. Google
Sounds a bit like a fart!
I couldn’t give a flying fuck if he got unemployment down to 2% nationals methods of gaining power and holding power , yes that’s right dirty politics is enough for me to say the barstards are not for for office.
New Zealanders should hang there head in shame for tolerating it.
You are correct as far as I am concerned Joker ,but then in all my life (85) I have never ever meet a decent Tory and that includes National members. They have always been anti worker and have often used the strong arm of the law to simply crush any workers protests. They can never be trusted when it comes to workers conditions. Over the last few years they have destroyed unions and their unemployment policies have made sure unions are kept down. Working people who think National can be trusted are living i cuckoo land.
I would very much like to know how many who are termed “employed” are receiving income assistance of one sort or another.
Bill English let the cat out of the bag when he asserted that below a certain income, you don’t pay tax.
Whether he lied about the threshold or not, so far as I’m aware, if you have one hour a week work you come off the “unemployed” statistics.
So on the one hand, we have National Party orders creating human rights abuses at WINZ (despite the best efforts of individual employees, the system guarantees it), and on the other we have underemployment being touted as success.
Slow clap.
I had to laugh the other day when Blinglish was quoted saying that bottom 50% or so paid no tax at all. It was a part of the usual right wing schtick spouted by the now banned fisiani, and his besotted friends that the top bracket pays all the tax and the bottom bracket pays none. What Blinglish did was an insult to the tens of thousands of hard working families in that bottom 50% who did pay net tax making up for the many tens of thousands of struggling families who couldn’t.
This is the kind of stats lying the the current government depends on to deliver it’s good news messages.
Quite frankly I don’t believe the “sharp drop” in unemployment figures is anything other than a restructure of definitions and a shunting of vulnerable souls from one list to another.
How can the low income get out of paying tax, whether the Finance Minister declares they don’t or not?
Maybe it’s not income tax, but 15% on just about everything they buy to eat, for transport, to wear though they might buy from opshops, for repairs. 15% out of every $ is definitely tax, is tax, is actually tax, get it you ACTs (association of consumers and taxpayers who consider yourself special and hard-done-by).
15% GST is a basic tax and only the rich can afford to find a way around it.
Could someone please explain what 14,000 people leaving the workforce in one quarter means?
I mean it seems a major, major change so what does that actually look like?
it looks like an ageing workforce in which a lot of people chose to retire last year before Christmas, Muttonbird. That, among, no doubt a few other things that are everything to do with demographics and little to do with government policy. But the truth won’t get in the way of Joyce and others crowing endlessly about it.
Unemployment may be down but what about wages vs cost of living? It would be interesting to see comparisons over the years. I bet with the rising values of Auckland housing that this would look like shit for Key. Easy to get unemployment down when wages are so pathetically low, the real trick is to get low unemployment with well paying jobs that give a good standard of living. This is where we should be looking.
Hence the TPP to grow nz productivity
The TPP will destroy NZ jobs, just like NAFTA did to Canada and the States.
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/10/06/the-future-of-trans-pacific-trade/the-trans-pacific-pact-would-kill-jobs-and-consumer-protection
Do all you right wingers come on this site without doing any research?
Ha ha ha. You mean the so called trickle down effect where employers make higher profits so pay higher wages? Heard that one before but have yet to see it. In fact, we’ve all been waiting since 84 for that and now have the ECA act to ensure that never happens.
If the TPPA does create more jobs I doubt very much that they will be higher paying ones that result in a better standard of living for the peasents. More likely, certain companies will just make even higher profits.
Derevulsion – more ideas destructive to most NZrs.
“You’re hatred for key, and the right, completely consumes and blinds you.”
Good grief, what kind of “right winger” would support a party that is virtually a continuation of Helen Clark’s governance except maybe even worse. We owe $100 billion spent to support the socialist illusion and each year about $5 billion comes out of the budget to service this debt. Pandering to Maori much worse than Clark ever did. Spending & interfering with the economy far more than Clark ever did. And she was bad enough.
Supporters of John Key who flop around the blogosphere imagining they are “right wingers” need their heads read. He even described himself as “progressive”. Look it up and see what that really means.
As for the unemployment figures, I share the opinion a few have expressed above. I reckon they’re mostly BS, and I say why here.
As soon as the weak and compromising Key is dumped and we can restore the National Party to what its founders meant it to be, (low tax, small govt, low spending) the sooner we can dig this country out of the hole it is in.
Stop calling this socialist idiot Key right wing. It only props up the left’s similar delusions.
I followed that link to truebluenz….sicked up in the back of my throat a little and needed to burn all my clothes. yuk yuk yuk
“low tax, small govt, low spending”
Welcome to the third world.
“I followed that link to truebluenz….sicked up in the back of my throat a little and needed to burn all my clothes. yuk yuk yuk”
I get the same old “its outrageous that you should say such things”, but for God’s sake, I’m being critical of the National Party.
No pleasing some of you people.
minor quibbles with your pro-slavery, pro-death penalty, anti-union views?
don’t worry JK is a dead-eyed bankster who shares your anti-social agenda.
he just does what is pragmatic/politically expedient to stay in power… a very smart politician.
Critical of the National Party, in the sense that you are complaining that they are not as awful yet as you would like them to be.
Uh, no, the founders of the National Party intended for National to keep Labour out of power.
The rest of what you mention is just borrowed political ideology from Thatcher and Reagan.
?????
In Sept 2008, the NZ population was 4.28M
Late last year the NZ population was 4.60M, and increase of 320K.
And the population is now growing at its fastest rate in years. We are adding 7K to 8K population PER MONTH.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/71124472/New-Zealands-population-growing-at-its-fastest-rate-in-over-a-decade
Given this having only 28,000 extra unemployed, especially post GFC (which in reality is not just continuing but actually worsening) is actually a reasonable result.
Not great, but certainly not bad.
Basically, English is continuing to spend borrowed money into the NZ economy to keep unemployment well tamped down and things chugging along. And he’s going to continue to feed the economic machine in the lead up to what I suspect will be an early-ish election Aug/Sep 2017.
CV it’s the “Participation rate” that is the problem. There are more people opting out of the job market altogether in particular in the 25 – 34 year bracket.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/labor-force-participation-rate
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/295704/what's-behind-the-fall-in-unemployment
They used to be called “drop outs” and its starting to happen all over again. You know – and I know – that for some the constant struggle with WINZ simply becomes too much and they disappear – onto the streets.
From that RNZ article
Yes it is a concern, but as I said, the population of the country is at least 300K larger than in Helen Clark’s day. A 14K increase in non-participation out of 300K is not really game changing.
Oooops CV that’s 14,000 in the last 3 months – not last 6 years. 🙂
The sentence actually makes it sound like the numbers grew to 14,000 people in total, not that the numbers grew by 14,000…