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Oh dear – National’s “white elephant” is still growing?

Written By: - Date published: 4:56 pm, November 23rd, 2014 - 44 comments
Categories: national, public transport, same old national, transport - Tags: , ,

There is one thing that you can say about the National party and their media sycophants is that they are routinely wrong about Auckland city.  Auckland really can’t go wrong by simply implementing whatever plan they are currently railing against. For instance this classically wrong cartoon accurately expresses the opinions being put forward in NZ Herald pieces  in the early to late 2000’s.

Back in 2007 when the Northern busway was being put in, they were portraying it as being a white elephant. But the traffic figures at the Transport Blog make it perfectly clear that was simple stupidity.

What actually happened? Although the busway was constructed late, it worked like crazy. By 2012, actual patronage on the busway was almost double what the patronage forecasts indicated:

Northern busway figures projected vs actual as at November 2012.

Needless to say, the pundits in the article have been proven to be completely and utterly wrong. Most were advocating for more roads based on projection of increased car traffic. But the trend both here and internationally isn’t that way. It is towards public transport…

The most recent Census data shows that road traffic is growing at an anemic pace while all other modes are booming:

So despite large sections of very expensive motorway and other roading changes in Auckland being opened up since 2006, it has resulted in a negligible increase in that being people’s preferred mode of commuting transport. The relatively few and much cheaper to implement alternatives in public transport are filled to near capacity a few years after they become available.

But it goes wider than that. The changes that were in the Auckland public transport plan after the National government got tossed from office in 1999 have all been late invariably due to a lack of early funding.

  • The key projects that have been undertaken, such as the Northern Busway and rail electrification, have often been finished far behind schedule. Rail electrification was supposed to be done in 2011, for crying out loud!

  • The successful Northern Busway hasn’t been followed with investment in other essential rapid transit projects, such as the (planned but not yet built) AMETI busway to the eastern suburbs and the Northwestern Busway on SH16.

  • Successive governments have spent billions on Auckland’s motorway network even after it became apparent that demand was flatlining.

From another Transport blog post, it is clear that this shows no signs of diminishing in 2014. The rapid transit network including the Northern busway and the rail network is showing increases in trips of between 13% and 25% across all modes, with an average patronage increase of 16.7%. The Northern busway alone without any significiant increases in services has increased by 12.4%. Even the feeder buses in the throes of changes on various routes show a 6.4% increase.

Auckland Transport patronage breakdown October 2014. Click for a larger image.

The overall increase YTD is 7.7% which is a phenomenal shift in traffic towards public transport.

But hey, this kind of thing doesn’t appear to impact on the short-term thinking of our short-sighted and outright stupid National government. Here is a press release by Simon Bridges, the idiot transport minister from Tauranga, on Auckland’s transport needs.

Auckland Council are welcome to have a debate about future transport infrastructure investment plans, but the Government remains sceptical about the options being presented, Transport Minister Simon Bridges said today in response to the release of ‘Funding Auckland’s Transport Future’, a report commissioned by the Auckland Council.

“This is why the National-led Government is spending more than ever before to help build the city’s transport network; around a billion dollars a year. These include very large projects like the Waterview Connection, the widening of the North Western Motorway, the electrification of commuter rail, and the acceleration of motorway projects on the Northern and Southern Corridors.

From memory, weren’t almost all of those public transport projects started and funded by the last Labour government? For that matter so were most of the roading white elephants.

“Aucklanders would need a very clear sense of what results they are getting and whether the new projects would deliver tangible value for money for commuters.  They also need to have the discussion about how much more Aucklanders are prepared to pay for their transport.”

This is from the government who in 2009 arbitrarily removed the painfully negotiated regional fuel tax that was meant to allow Aucklanders to pay for their local transport projects without having to go cap in hand to the dithering idiots in Wellington.

Aucklanders are overwhelmingly voting with their AT Hop cards. They don’t get on the motorways to try to find a park close to work. Where it is available they are getting on bus or train because you can read on the commute. The glare of the LCD screens in endemic on all public transport in Auckland these days as people catch up on news feeds, email and books on the way to work.

Helping to extend motorways further is pretty pointless. The congestion figures on the motorways and the bridges is reducing because people use the public transport whenever it is available. Even the current public transport projects in the pipeline are going to continue to reduce road congestion.

And after all, who really wants to have a hour long commute each way to live in some greenfield site at the back or beyond in the manner that appears to be National’s prefered development plan. The flood of people and the massive rises in house prices are in the areas that people want to live. That isn’t at the ends of the motorways. It is in a ever growing circle within 5-15 kms in the now “inner” suburbs of Auckland like Mt Roskill or Glenfield. The places characterised by relatively short commutes on public transport to transport hubs and work.

Building on greenfield sites out past Henderson-Massey or in South Auckland at 20-40km range is completely useless when the costs of putting the roads, public transport systems, and much of the long run infrastructure falls so heavily on taxpayers and ratepayers.

In effect it amounts to a subsidy that the National government is forcing on taxpayers and ratepayers to pay for greenfield developers and their affluent (because who else can pay for the long car commutes?) customers and a boon for their donating buddies in the car and roading industries.

44 comments on “Oh dear – National’s “white elephant” is still growing? ”

  1. Sacha 1

    Even the government’s transport experts are beginning to acknowledge reality, unlike a succession of Ministers:
    http://transportblog.co.nz/2014/11/21/mot-acknowledge-changing-trends-and-future-funding-issues/

    It makes no sense at all to invest so much right now in the wrong transport infrastructure for the next century, as if it were the last one. V8 fantasies from 1960s boys who never grew up.

    Especially when separated public transit like Auckland’s Northern busway has shown its value so easily – about half the people crossing the Harbour Bridge in the morning peak are now on buses, freeing up road space for the remaining cars, taxis and delivery trucks.

    Adding the long-delayed core rail link to the picture will vastly increase traffic on all the region’s lines – to a train every 5 minutes during peak times, and 10 minutes at others.

    People will still drive, sure – but they’ll have other options. Thought the right-wingers were all about choice?

    • lprent 1.1

      People will still drive, sure – but they’ll have other options. Thought the right-wingers were all about choice?

      That is what they say. But apparently not when it comes to handing out lucrative contracts to grateful crony capitalist friends.

      I simply can’t see any other rationale for wanting to build out almost all new housing in the boondocks.

      The crazy thing about it in Auckland at present is that the only housing that commands a premium in rentals, outside the CBD student hutches, over the cost of capital is in larger apartments (>= 50 sq m) and semi detached housing. It is a pretty clear market signal about what people *want* to move into.

      National appears to have largely ignored it. Probably too burnt from their monumentally stupid decision to deregulate the building regulations in the 1990’s that caused such a large issue with leaky buildings a decade later.

      But everything that I have seen indicates that National still thinks in terms of building 3 bedroom houses in the back of beyond. They are what was designed for a specific type of ‘family’, two parents and two or three kids. But that is a rather unusual type of family in Auckland these days

      We have an ample stock of houses of that type in Auckland (3 bedroom standalones on a section). The reason we are still having issues is that we are stuffing all of the families outside that form factor into 3 bedroom houses because there is a massive shortage of everything else. They are inefficient users of land and largely a waste of time for DINKies or empty nesters or even solo parents.

      For people in their first decade(s) of work, most don’t have kids these days until they are close to 30 or above. There is a pretty large shortage of the inner suburb apartments (with parking for weekend cars and public transport for the commute) that they want.

      Similarly those people who have had kids, or like me and Lyn have had none at all, and who don’t need or want a 3 bedroom house. How in the hell would we ever have time to maintain it.

      At most we’d like a 2 bedroom apartment at about 75 sq m with no internal stairs – something that is almost impossible to find in Auckland outside of the luxury apartments in Parnell or downtown.

      It is the mixture of housing that is wrong in Auckland as well as the public transport systems.

      • Sacha 1.1.1

        I’m saddened by the lazy rentier-capitalism tendency here. It does not bode well for New Zealand.

        It is far easier for property developers to stick to sprawling single level dwellings and get the Council to pay for most of the infrastructure, with a token ‘development contribution’ to add a park or two and maybe a local library. Who cares if another big motorway, business park or sewage plant is needed, right?

        Naturally, our current government is outraged by that unreasonable imposition on the freedom of capitalism and they will put an end to it shortly, along with other features of the Resource Management Act that reigned in the worst of our incompetent business sector.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.2

      Thought the right-wingers were all about choice?

      Don’t be silly. The political-right are about giving the illusion of choice while actually preventing anyone from having a choice and that lack of choice will result in higher profits for the private sector. As lprent says in the article:

      In effect it amounts to a subsidy that the National government is forcing on taxpayers and ratepayers to pay for greenfield developers and their affluent (because who else can pay for the long car commutes?) customers and a boon for their donating buddies in the car and roading industries.

      National, as they’ve shown time and time again, will always find a way to subsidise the rich from everyone else’s taxes.

  2. srylands 2

    It would be very sad it PT patronage wasn’t growing given the amount that has been spent on it.

    But as the NZIER made clear last week, the future is in private cars, and ride sharing. Investment in Auckland rail is not smart.

    Over the next 30 years there will be more cars, and people will live ever further from their work places – i.e longer commutes – mostly by road.

    You should read the report if you have not already done so.

    http://tinyurl.com/pdne9t9

    • Sacha 2.1

      Way more has been spent supporting non-public transport modes over many decades, and more to come as governments like this one prioritise sprawl that we all get to pay for. But don’t let that disturb your ideological fantasies about ‘freedom’ and self-driving cars, etc.

    • lprent 2.2

      NZIER pretty much produce what they are paid for. In this case who did pay for it? The roading lobby probably by the look of it.

      The idiots who wrote that report are basing most of it on the type of technology that hasn’t been even remotely taken to implementation phase. If you hunt around you can find virtually the same kind of reports from the 1960s predicting much the same kinds of things by the 1990s.

      Unlike you (clearly you don’t write code or work as an engineer), I actually work on technology that does this kind of stuff. Just not for cars. I think that from what I know of the current state of robotised technology (which is what this is), we are about 20 years away from proving it for the type of wide scale release required for driverless cars.

      FFS I have been watching Auckland coop taxi’s introduction and development of their dispatch technology for their taxis for more than 20 years. I’d have to say that is a sobering experience for a techhead like me. They have a web and app hooked to the GPS in the cars and it sometimes works. But trying to book a taxi in central Auckland at rush hour is often a horrendous experience. And each tech update causes massive resistance from those who have to purchase them.

      Technologies like this take many decades to implement and they seldom work if there are existing incremental alternatives available.

      For instance where in the hell are these things meant to park and recharge after the rush hours? The authors of this fluff piece expect that somehow the existing parking will handle it. FFS Parking is at a premium in all locations that people are meant to go to with the cars at present, and there is no spare space to fill between parked cars now. So who is going to pay for the parking buildings?

      Has anyone figured up how much the grid would have to be increased in urban areas to just handle the charge costs during the day.

      The nett effect is that there will have to be an immense capital injection to put in the infrastructure

      However, if we assume that it does miraculously happen, then all of the things that they are describing apply even more for improving *public* transport than they do for private transport.

      Basically this economics science fantasy is a just a diversion that any engineer will take one look at and just start ignoring.

      But even as economics, it doesn’t make sense. They are comparing the upgrade costs for installing a previously inadequate public transport infrastructure with a sunk cost system (motorways). So naturally being liars with numbers they use compare a low capacity startup system with a already saturated existing system.

      Of course the per passenger costs on public transport are high. Just as the odd car travelling down the north western motorway after it was built had massive per passenger cost. The cost per unit goes down because the fixed costs are spread further as the number of trips go up. That is obvious in their graphs but the inadequate author who wrote it somehow managed to not point that obvious point out

      Basically Nick Allison, the author, is a technological idiot and I’d have to say that he appears to be useless at economics as well.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.3

      But as the NZIER made clear last week, the future is in private cars, and ride sharing. Investment in Auckland rail is not smart.

      About the only thing that the NZIER made clear last week was that they’re a bunch of idiots who haven’t got a clue about what they’re talking about.

      • lprent 2.3.1

        Yep that was my assessment as well. You notice that it was entitled as a “NZIER public discussion paper”. Not even a report. The overall quality reminded me more of a intern level…

        Umm reminds me I have to shepherd one of them tomorrow…

  3. srylands 3

    and BTW the changes you cite are large percentage changes on tiny numbers. All the Aucklanders I know – except for people who are too young to drive – wouldn’t be seen dead on a bus. That won’t change. PT will be useful for small numbers of people, mainly the poor who can’t afford cars. But in the long run it will be cheaper for the rest of us to buy them cars!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 3.1

      Rambling libertarian rejects* reality. Read all about it.

      S Rylands thinks no-one here can see what effect building more roads has. Or perhaps he can cite somewhere on Earth where reality conforms to his paycheck.

      *and peddles trite sophistry to right wing politicians, seemingly oblivious to the hypocrisy of a libertard sucking on the public teat.

    • McFlock 3.2

      You might exclusively associate with fuckwits when you visit NZ, but almost 15 million passenger trips in the year to oct ’14 suggest that you didn’t fucking read the post.

    • Sacha 3.3

      Most major cities in the world feature a wide range of people on their public transit networks.

      Auckland had a tram network until the 1950s that supported over 100,000,000 trips per year – until a National government in bed with foreign oil companies gutted it. We still haven’t got back to that level yet, despite a hugely-increased population.

    • lprent 3.4

      srylands enhances his reputation as an delusional fool. Go and have a look in Auckland buses and trains. For that matter look in Wellington or Melbourne ones.

      Young people (by my standards) are overwhelmingly the people who are in them.

    • Tracey 3.5

      now our australian resident pretending to also live on the kapiti coast is an expert on auckland travel habits in the city…

    • Draco T Bastard 3.6

      But in the long run it will be cheaper for the rest of us to buy them cars!

      60 people traveling on the motorway. 72 by bus, 72 by car. The 72 by bus use 20 tonnes of material in the bus and about double the fuel of a single car or around 1/10th of the fuel per passenger of a car with one person in it. The 72 by car use 72 tonnes of material in the cars and a lot more fuel. Those 72 cars would also use a lot more resources being transported around the as well.

      From this we can see that it’s far cheaper to have everyone using the buses for free than it would be to buy everyone a car.

      That’s real economics rather than the delusional bullshit taught in school and university.

    • lprent 3.7

      But in the long run it will be cheaper for the rest of us to buy them cars!

      Not really. Here is the fastest way to reduce congestion on the roads… Same number of people in several different modes of transport.

      Seems pretty simple to me. Simple enough that even you could get it…

  4. karol 4

    Most major cities in the world feature a wide range of people on their public transit networks.

    And so it is in Auckland. I can afford a car. But I prefer to use public transport as much as possible. At peak times, it’s much better on a bus or train from West Auckland – can read etc, instead of sitting in a car, having to pay constant attention as the queue of traffic inches down the road.

    And people on the North Shore – not known as the poorest area of Auckland, are increasingly using the busway. It’s great in peak times – bus whizzes down the bus lane past all those poor people stuck in the slow moving traffic on the motorway.

    slylands:

    PT will be useful for small numbers of people, mainly the poor who can’t afford cars.

    hhahahaha… in Auckland it’s the opposite. Many people out west say they put up with the slow car commute because it’s cheaper than using public transport.

    • lprent 4.1

      How? They must have a source of really cheap parking…

      Where I work outside the CBD, you can still get all-day parking for $8/day. But the prices in town and in the main urban centres around the city are rapidly passing $15 for earlybird.

      When I was looking at jobs out in Albany, the main reason I didn’t take a proffered job was because there was simply no parking when I went to the interviews and it was too damn far to walk from the bus station.

      In my tech area, most of the work is steadily moving back into near to central city because otherwise they can’t get techheads willing to work for them. It simply costs too much to take a car because of parking anywhere and it is too aggravating driving.

      • karol 4.1.1

        Well, that’s what they say. But maybe they get some cheap parking for their work. Next time someone says it, I’ll ask. There’s been at least one person on TS say that they drive to the CBD fro m west Auckland because it’s cheaper.

        Mind you, the trek from Swanson/Ranui to the CBD is quite expensive by public transport and quite time consuming. But I don’t know how people put up with the daily car commute.

        • Tracey 4.1.1.1

          didnt transport blog recently do an analysis of car plus parking versus public transport out west?

        • adam 4.1.1.2

          The price for the train in west Auckland is silly, the zones are all FUBAR. There is one ride which is a 5 station ride which cost $5. Baldwin road to fruitvale road. Which is ironic, I argued against zones at the last round of submissions – saying it has silly anomalies and will stifle growth in passenger numbers. Glad to see passenger numbers are still growing, but they need to now remove the zone barrier and follow South Australia into a single flat fare.

          • karol 4.1.1.2.1

            Yes, the zone boundary is at Fruitvale. So it’s cheaper for me to walk to New Lynn Station from where I live, even though Frutivale is closer. At least, it was cheaper, before I got my gold card.

            The gold card is a major incentive to use public transport (after 9am weekdays, all times at weekends). I think the idea of free, or very cheap public transport for all should be looked at. The Greens’ policy of Green Cards for free travel, off peak times, for students and apprentices is an excellent one.

            • adam 4.1.1.2.1.1

              I do have to laugh a lot though, even with these silly blocks, like overpriced fairs, and delays in developments – Public transport keeps growing. Even if half the money needed was put into the system, public transport would flourish.

              The fair system, and the continued rises under the super city does annoy me though. A flat rate, with cheaper rates for students, apprentices, elderly, mothers, and disabled would be the way forward.

              Actually for disabled, the current put the cripple through the wringer system to get a discount pass is off putting at best (I was going to write rude words here). I know many, myself included, who won’t be put through that system again – because it is painful and some what degrading. For example asking people with no legs if they now have legs, – or blind people if they can now see – Or if you have a degenerative condition, if there has been some regeneration? So polite, such a nice way to have a dig.

              As a friend said, they would rather spend millions on remodeling cars so disabled can drive, than spend a few thousand creating disabled friendly public transport options.

      • Sacha 4.1.2

        “In my tech area, most of the work is steadily moving back into near to central city because otherwise they can’t get techheads willing to work for them”

        This is really important. In creative industries relying on staff who are globally in demand, lifestyle and professional enrichment count. If a worker can’t easily be part of communities that count to them for both work and play, then they will live in any other world city.

    • Tracey 4.2

      also, the misinformation about the loop is scary. at the moment trains bottleneck at britomart which is what prevents the trains running more often than they do now.

      this govt stubbornly sticks to urban sprawl housing without the associated piblic transport.

  5. Tracey 5

    was at te ata tu penninsula yesterday. leaving aside the plethora of leaky homes it is a prime example of urban sprawl without PT. the waterview tunnel wont remove the fundamental problem in aucklans sprawl… by tge time you drive twenty mins to the train, coupled with longer train gaps cos of britomart bottleneck, you might as well drive

    • karol 5.1

      When I drive down through Waterview during the morning peak time, I despair. How is that upgrade going to improve the gridlock of cars queuing back through Avondale to New Lynn, in order to get on to the motorway?

      Te Atatu needs a busway like the North Shore. Funny how the wealthiest suburbs got a busway long before the (what was once) working class suburb of Te Atatu Peninsular?

      • Tracey 5.1.1

        been thinking the same thing. it will give people a better west to south drive off peak BUT wont change much of the trip to the city.

        did the harbourview walk yesterday… today i drove past the ngapipi rd walkway and road repair in orakei. my partner and i commented on the huge difference in quality between the remuera orakei effort and the waitakere one.

        you also cant drive fifty metres these days in mt eden epsom remuera for judder bars… safety of children much more important in that part of town?

    • Sacha 5.2

      The redesigned bus network in 2016 will change that equation – a bus close to your home every 10 minutes, connecting to the nearest station on the rapid network, then shuttling back to do the same again rather that sitting in that traffic glugging towards the cbd.

      Just need to make sure we build more rapid network services and infrastructure like the Northwestern and Dominion Road busways rather than silly and expensive 1950s motorway frills like building a cloverleaf interchange for Albany, 4-laning Mills Road in Manukau (or adding a daft flyover for the Wellington mid-city Basin, for that matter).

      • Tracey 5.2.1

        my partner is from christchurch but has now lived in auckland for twenty three years. about twenty years ago, or so, we made a joint submission to auckland council about considering turning sandringham and dominion roads into one way streets to ease congestion.

  6. halfcrown 6

    We live south of the Bombay’s (Waikato). Both of us are very seriously thinking of using the rail network next time we visit Auckland. Can anyone tell us which is the best station to drive to and then park our car We were thinking of Pupakura, but if someone has a better suggestion it would be appreciated.

    Ta.

    • Tracey 6.1

      pukekohe is the farthest out of auckland, i think papakura is next. if you come on a weekday park at pukekohe then you miss the afternoon congestion coming back from papakura to drury.

    • tc 6.2

      Just check they go regularly to pukekohe or papakura may be a better option as time is time whether it’s in traffic or on a train.

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    Time for a good old-fashioned fandom furore. The Tolkien fandom hasn’t had a proper one of those since the Great Nudity Scandal of October 2020… so it clearly must be time to pontificate from on-high about a television series we still know vanishingly little about. This time the subject ...
    3 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 13 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Dr Lara Greaves, Political scientist, University of Auckland: “I love the NZ Politics Daily emails as they help me to keep on top of current events. It’s incredibly easy to skim through and follow the links. I really appreciate these as it means that I am exposed to a ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • The Data and Statistics Bill and the OIA
    The government introduced a new Data and Statistics Bill today to modernise and replace the 45-year old Statistics Act. Part of the Bill re-enacts the existing confidentiality regime (with one exception), which while a secrecy clause isn't an especially controversial one. Another part is aimed at removing "outdated" (inconvenient) limits ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Graham Adams: The debate over the $55 million media fund erupts again
    RNZ’s Mediawatch and a video clip viewed 42,000 times keep the topic of the Public Interest Journalism Fund fizzing. Graham Adams reports.   A week ago, the NZ Taxpayers’ Union posted a short video clip of the exchange in Parliament between Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in which the National ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Multiple sclerosis: the link with earlier infection just got stronger – new study
    Scott Montgomery, UCL For most of the time since the first description of multiple sclerosis (MS) in 1868, the causes of this disabling disease have remained uncertain. Genes have been identified as important, which is why having other family members with MS is associated with a greater risk of developing ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 days ago
  • Covid and free speech
    by Don Franks Some commentators have likened the struggle against Covid 19 to the world war experience. To those of us not alive in those times, that comparison can only be academic. What the anti virus battle reminds me of much more is an industrial strike. In my twenties and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • “Angry Blowhards”
    In today’s Herald, their excellent columnist, Simon Wilson, takes to task those “shouty” people whom he further describes as “angry blowhards”. They are those whose prime reaction to the pandemic is anger – an anger they seamlessly (and perhaps unwittingly) transfer from the virus to the government. The basis for ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • Looking Forward To 2022.
    Future Tense? Okay, so that’s where we are in 2022. Living in a New Zealand where all the usual rules of politics once again apply. And, guess what? Jacinda’s government, once again, isn’t doing very well – not very well at all.LET’S PLAY A GAME. Let’s pretend we’re half-way through ...
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on Covid mandates, and the Covid pill
    The cliché about “living with Covid” will not mean life as we’ve known it, Jim. Vaccination is fast becoming a condition of employment, and also a requirement to participate in aspects of social life, such as travel, attending bars, cafes, and concerts etc. These protective measures enjoy a high level ...
    4 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 12 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Prof Alan Bollard, Professor of Practice at the School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington; Chair of the Infrastructure Commission: “NZ Politics Daily” provides a great public service – a quick and unbiased way to check policy announcements and analysis every morning.” Anyone can sign up to NZPD ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Legal Beagle: A submission on the COVID-19 Public Health Response Amendment Bill (No 2)
    I have made a submission on the COVID-19 Public Health Response Amendment Bill (No 2).In preparing it, I looked at the Hansard for the first reading debate, and got name-dropped as someone likely to make a submission. So, of course I did. I focus on a small bit of the ...
    5 days ago
  • Hard News: More tales from the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme
    You may have read last week that two years after the publication of regulations for medicinal cannabis – and three years after the enabling legislation – two local products from a local manufacturer have finally met the minimum quality standards for prescription. You may also be interested to know that ...
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Real action requires government
    Over the weekend someone pointed me at a journal article on "The Poverty of Theory: Public Problems, Instrument Choice, and the Climate Emergency". Its a US law journal article, so is a) very long; and b) half footnotes (different disciplines have different norms), but the core idea is that the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Not doing our bit
    Last month the US and EU announced they would push an agreement to cut methane emissions by 30% (from 2020 levels) by 2030 at the upcoming climate change conference in Glasgow. The good news is that New Zealand is looking at joining it. The bad news is that that won't ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Delta’s Week Of Doom.
    Classic Shot: Are the Prime Minister’s formidable communication skills equal to the task of getting her government’s anti-Covid campaign back on track?IF JACINDA ARDERN thought last week was bad, the week ahead promises to be even worse. Sixty community cases of Covid-19, one of the highest daily totals so far ...
    5 days ago
  • Urgent measures needed to allow the safe re-opening of Auckland schools
    Dr Rachel Webb, Dr Jin Russell, Dr Pip Anderson, Dr Emma Best, Dr Alison Leversha and Dr Subha Rajanaidu* In this blog we describe the range of urgent measures that are needed to facilitate a safe return to schools in Auckland and other regions of the country where there is ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    5 days ago
  • Children live online more than ever – we need better definitions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ scree...
    Kathryn MacCallum, University of Canterbury and Cheryl Brown, University of Canterbury   The pandemic has fundamentally altered every part of our lives, not least the time we spend on digital devices. For young people in particular, the blurred line between recreational and educational screen time presents new challenges we are ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • Putting Aotearoa on the map: New Zealand has changed its name before, why not again?
    Claire Breen, University of Waikato; Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato; Robert Joseph, University of Waikato, and Valmaine Toki, University of Waikato   Our names are a critical part of our identity. They are a personal and social anchor tying us to our families, our culture, our history and place in ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • Speaker: Yes, of course festival organisers will follow the law on vaccination
    On Tuesday 5 October the New Zealand Government announced that proof of COVID-19 vaccination would be a requirement to attend large events this summer.It took a few days for event owners to absorb the information and understand the implications. By the end of the working week, most of the big ...
    5 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 11 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Jim Hubbard, Cartoonist “NZ Politics daily is a go to for cartoonists, or should be.  Political reporting enmasse like this gives cartoonists and political junkies a smorgasbord to get their teeth into. Essential and I daresay vital reading for those who care about the future of NZ.” Anyone can sign ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • 2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #41
    Listing of articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, October 3, 2021 through Sat, October 9, 2021 The following articles sparked above average interest during the week: VFX Artist Reveals how Many Solar Panels are Needed to Power the ENTIRE World, Will you fall ...
    6 days ago
  • The Night of Parmenides: accepted
    A bit of good news on the writing front. My 3900-word short story, The Night of Parmenides, has been accepted by SpecFicNZ for their upcoming Aftermath anthology, to be published in early 2022. This is my first published short story to be explicitly set in my home-town of ...
    6 days ago
  • The Virus, the Politician, and the gang member
    . . . . . References Newshub Nation: Gang leader Harry Tam denies Winston Peters’ claims he helped infected woman breach COVID boundary, sparking Northland lockdown Te Ao News: ‘Apologise!’ Mob leader slams Peters’ Covid, Northland allegations Stuff media: Covid-19 – Search for contact of Northland case ‘extraordinarily frustrating’ CNBC: ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • Rapid kits, responses, and openings: watch motivations, or catch something worse with Covid…
    Last week was probably a high point for many armchair “experts”, fresh from their high after some deep inhaling of the various musings and fumings, of an actually very smug, and very insualted John “Things all work for me…” Key, former Prime Minister and FOREX trader, had blitzed the ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • Bollocks
    It would appear we have an unwelcome presence in town.Positive wastewater results had been detected in Hamilton and Palmerston North on October 6 and 7. There are 26 cases in hospital, seven of these are in ICU or high dependency units (HDU).One of the people in hospital is in Palmerston ...
    7 days ago
  • World-leading?
    So, the Herald has found someone, as we can see from today’s issue, who is able to explain why we should not claim to have been “world-leading” in our response to the covid epidemic. It seems that we have been kidding ourselves when we celebrated our low total number of ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    7 days ago
  • Why Is Labour So Frightened Of “Mr Stick”?
    Force Multiplier: Why are Ardern and her ministers so loathe to put a bit of stick about? The “emergency” legislation eventually enacted to authorise the measures needed to combat the Covid-19 pandemic failed to confer upon the New Zealand Government the unequivocal authority that subsequent events showed to be so ...
    1 week ago
  • The Need for an Updated Strategic Approach to Covid-19 Control in Aotearoa NZ
    Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Jennifer Summers, Prof Michael Baker* The NZ Government appears to have drifted into an unclear strategic approach to Covid-19 control. In this blog we outline one potential way forward: a regional strategic approach that considers “regional suppression” and “regional elimination”. To maximise the success of this ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Mairon: The Actual Source for the Blasted Name
    Long-time Tolkien geeks – or those bemused enough to run across a certain internet phenomenon – might know that ‘Sauron’ is not actually the real name of the Lord of the Ring. ‘Sauron’ is just an abusive Elvish nickname, meaning ‘the Abhorred.’ Sauron’s actual name, at least originally, ...
    1 week ago
  • Forced Re-entry
    The elimination of Covid strategy is not so much defeated but changing circumstances means that policy has to evolve. Our elimination stance was never sustainable or at least it would not be until the rest of the world also eliminated Covid-19. Elimination of the virus was a strategy we adopted ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • Repeal this unjust law
    Yesterday the Supreme Court ruled on National's unjust "three strikes" law, and found that the sentence it required was (in the case in question) so disproportionate as to "shock the conscience" and violate the Bill of Rights Act ban on disproportionately severe treatment or punishment: The Supreme Court has ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Preparing for the flood
    The Christchurch City Council has published new "coastal hazards" data, indicating which places are under threat from sea-level rise. And its not good news: Parts of Christchurch and Banks Peninsula are likely to become unhabitable [sic] as the city council figures out how to adapt to sea level ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The Virus, Not The Government
    I wonder if Mike Hosking ever reads the paper in which he appears so regularly? If he does, he might have noticed a report in today’s Herald about the problem that could face churches in Auckland if a vaccine passport becomes mandatory for those wishing to attend church services. The ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 8 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Bill Ralston, Media consultant and columnist: “NZ Politics Daily provides an invaluable service for journalists, politicians, businesspeople, decision makers and the public at large by providing an easily accessible, exhaustive, link to every significant political story in the country’s media that day. It’s a gem of a service ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Open letter to Michael Barnett, Julie White, et al
    . . Congratulations,  Mr Barnett, Ms White, and your business colleagues. It appears that we will end up having to “live” (ie, get sick, end up in hospital, perhaps in ICU, intubated on ventilators, and possibly dying as our lungs fail) with covid19. But at least businesses will open up. ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Introducing Mr Stick.
    MR STICK: You media types think the people of this country have changed, but you’re wrong. We’re the same tough bastards we’ve always been. Put a bit of stick about – and listen to us cheer!JOSEPHINE MUCH-ADOO: Kia ora, everyone, and welcome to “Introducing”. Today we are very pleased to ...
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2021
    "Old" research There's little point in trying to best this excellent article describing the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics by Ars Technica authors Jennifer Ouelette and John Timmer, each having a gift for concisely on-target, accessible science journalism. Here at New Research we'll punt and quote the The Royal Swedish Academy of ...
    1 week ago
  • Standing on one leg is a sign of good health – and practising is good for you too
    Dawn Skelton, Glasgow Caledonian University Research shows that people’s ability to stand on one leg is an indicator of health and that getting better at standing on one leg can add to fitness and potentially lifespan. Being able to stand on one leg is linked to increased levels of physical ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: More dishonesty over the CCR
    Last month the Emissions Trading Scheme turned into a farce, when the government flooded the market with credits in a failed and wasteful attempt to Keep Carbon Prices Low. When I asked about the background of this policy Climate Change Minister James Shaw sent me one of the most egregious ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Schrödinger’s Wraith: The Status of the Witch-King of Angmar, 15th-25th March, T.A. 3019.
    My recent re-read of The Lord of the Rings reminded me of one of the vaguer head-scratchers in Tolkien. The status of the Witch-King of Angmar between his death at the Battle of Pelennor Fields and the Destruction of the One Ring ten days later… was he, in the ...
    1 week ago
  • How rainbow colour maps can distort data and be misleading
    Philip Heron, University of Toronto; Fabio Crameri, University of Oslo, and Grace Shephard, University of Oslo   The choice of colour to represent information in scientific images is a fundamental part of communicating findings. However, a number of colour palettes that are widely used to display critical scientific results are ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on Korea’s march to global cultural domination, plus a K-pop playlist
    So far, South Korea’s culture industries seem to be pandemic proof. They’re also winning huge global audiences, and not merely large domestic ones. In recent years, South Korea’s TV series (Squid Game, Descendants of The Sun) and movies ( Parasite, Oldboy, The Handmaiden) have become global hits. However, it has ...
    1 week ago
  • In a lockdown, where does work end and parenting begin? Welcome to the brave new world of ‘zigzag...
    Candice Harris, Auckland University of Technology and Jarrod Haar, Auckland University of Technology   All parents work. The difference lies in the breakdown between their paid and unpaid workloads. That equation is influenced by many things, including education, qualifications, age, ethnicity, financial status, number and age of dependants, gendered and ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Using Rapid Antigen Tests to Improve COVID-19 Control in Aotearoa NZ
    Figure 1: Rapid Antigen Test kit given out freely from the NHS in the UK Dr Jennifer Summers, Assoc Prof James Ussher, Assoc Prof Nikki Moreland, Dr Leah Grout, Prof Nick Wilson, Prof Michael Baker* Most COVID-19 testing aims to identify infected people. To date, Aotearoa NZ has relied almost ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 7 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Dr Liz Gordon, Former MP, researcher and blogger I just hate NZ Politics Daily. I get settled in to do a good day’s work and ZAP, it arrives in my inbox like a little shiny gift.  I try to ignore it but my cursor creeps inexorably towards the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Political Roundup – Will electoral and political finance law reform succeed this ti...
    It’s welcome news that the Government has announced this week that they intend to improve how elections work in this country, including fixing the political finance rules. Justice Minister Kris Faafoi has announced that major reforms will be investigated in the areas of political donation rules, promising changes that will ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Will Jacinda Stand? Or, Has She Already Fallen?
    Free Falling? New Zealanders needed to hear Jacinda take a firm line on vaccination, issuing stern warnings to those who declared their intention to refuse. Kiwis just weren’t in the mood to let lockdown evaders and anti-vaxxers free ride on their good citizenship. Google’s IT wizards confirmed that Kiwis were, overwhelmingly, ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The CCR was a huge waste of money II
    Last month, in the wake of the September carbon auction, I talked about how the government's policy of flooding the market with a "cost containment reserve" of an extra 7 million tons of pollution in an effort to keep carbon costs low was a huge waste of money. Ministry for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Celebrating Women in Space
    Beautiful, Inspiring, Mysterious!  How do you describe space?  What do you think when you look up at the stars?  The United Nations General Assembly certainly knew how beautiful, inspiring, mysterious, and important space is when they designated a week to be World Space Week.  That’s this week, and the theme for this year is ...
    SciBlogsBy John Pickering
    1 week ago
  • COVID Clusterfuck
    Well it has been fun living in the safest country in the world for a year and a half, but a combination of cynical politics from the right, and dithering incompetence from the left, and selfish sociopathy or ignorance on the part of the population , means New Zealand is ...
    1 week ago
  • Unsurprising
    Former rugby league star Manu Vatuvei has admitted importing methamphetamine. The Warriors icon was charged in December 2019 with possessing methamphetamine for supply and importing the Class A drug. He previously denied the charges and earlier this year said he would “fight for his innocence” after he outed himself as the sportsman ...
    1 week ago
  • Bond, Wokeness and Representations in Cinema
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh The latest James Bond film has come out.  It is apparently to be Daniel Craig’s last incarnation as the Spy Who Loved Me, or raped me as some have pointed out.  There has been much discussion about how woke the new James Bond is and how ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • The Virus, the Bubble, and the Trap
    . . . . . References National Party: Open the Trans Tasman Bubble Now (archived) Twitter: National Party – Sign the Trans Tasman bubble petition Twitter: Judith Collins – Sign the Trans Tasman bubble petition RNZ: Tourism New Zealand forecasting billion-dollar economy boost if trans-Tasman bubble opens Stuff media: Crack ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Not keeping their promises
    One of the big steps forward in climate change policy was when cabinet started demanding climate change assessments of policy, so when they built that road or changed energy or farm policy, they'd know what they were doing and be able to make an informed decision (and if not, one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A useful ruling
    As readers may be aware, I (and everyone else) have been having a growing problem with OIA extensions for "consultations". They're being used by agencies to juke the stats, scam extra time, and cover up administrative failure. So I've taken up complaining about them. And last night, I got a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the civil war (and looming famine) in Ethiopia
    When the United Nations wheels out its toughest language – Yemen in 2017 was /is“the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe” and (this week) the crisis in Ethiopia “ is a stain on our conscience” this is code. Yes, the United Nations is saying that things are really, really bad in those ...
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand Ambassador to France announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of Caroline Bilkey as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to France and the OECD. “Aotearoa New Zealand and France have a shared history, and enjoy a strong, collaborative partnership. This includes a strong trade and economic relationship, a shared commitment to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Govt welcomes nurses’ pay settlement
    The Government is welcoming news that a new employment agreement for nurses working in public hospitals has been settled. “I am very pleased that the hard work of the Nurses Organisation and District Health Boards has led to a settlement that both can support,” Health Minister Andrew Little said today. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Judge of the High Court appointed
    Māori Land Court Judge Layne Harvey has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Harvey graduated with an LLB from the University of Auckland in 1992 and commenced employment as a law clerk with Simpson Grierson in Auckland that same year. In 1997 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kiwis to have their say on plan to reduce waste
    New Zealanders are invited to have their say on proposals for a new waste strategy and options for new waste legislation. “Reducing waste is one of the issues all New Zealanders – especially younger Kiwis - care deeply about,” Environment Minister David Parker said today “New Zealand is one of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Next steps in action plan for indigenous rights kicks off
    Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson has today meet with more than 30 national Māori organisations in an online hui, kicking off the process to develop a plan for New Zealand to implement the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (the Declaration). The previous National Government signed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Iwi-led housing solutions build homes for the future
    Whai Kāinga, Whai Oranga will open on 20 October, to receive applications for investment through Te Tūāpapa Kura Kāinga – Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and Te Puni Kōkiri The $730m fund combines investment from Budget 2021 ($380m) and the Māori Infrastructure Fund ($350m) - the largest investment seen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • E whakarite ana Te Kāwanatanga i ngā tūāpapa mō twhakamaumahara ki Te Petihana Reo Māori ka t...
    I te rā nei, i pānuihia e te Minita mō Manatū Taonga, ko Carmel Sepuloni, rāua ko te Minita Whanaketanga Māori, ko Willie Jackson, ā tērā tau, ka whakanuia rawatia te 50 o ngā tau mai i te whakatakotoranga o te petihana mō te Reo Māori me te huanga mai ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • E whakarite ana Te Kāwanatanga i ngā tūāpapa mō tewhakamaumahara ki Te Petihana Reo Māori ka t...
    I te rā nei, i pānuihia e te Minita mō Manatū Taonga, ko Carmel Sepuloni, rāua ko te Minita Whanaketanga Māori, ko Willie Jackson, ā tērā tau, ka whakanuia rawatia te 50 o ngā tau mai i te whakatakotoranga o te petihana mō te Reo Māori me te huanga mai ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government green lights rapid antigen testing
    Some of the country’s largest businesses have put in an order for 300,000 approved rapid antigen tests for their workforce, after working at pace with the Government on a new scheme unveiled by Associate Minister of Health and Research, Science and Innovation Ayesha Verrall. A coalition of around 25 businesses ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government lays foundations as Māori Language Petition commemorations take shape for 2022
    Taiaha hā! Taiaha hā! - Te kairangi o te reo hoki mai ki taku tikanga, ki taku taumata, ki taku reo, ki taku ao. He reo whai tikanga, he reo whai mana, he reo whai tangata koe. Ki te whāngaihia te reo Māori he ao tēnā, ki te kore he ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Major contract awarded to power NZ Battery investigation
    A consortium of specialist firms has been awarded a major contract to advance the New Zealand Battery Project’s feasibility investigation into a pumped hydro storage scheme at Lake Onslow, the Minister of Energy and Resources Megan Woods has announced. “This contract represents a major milestone as it begins the targeted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Additional Funding for Foodbanks and Social Agencies
    The Government has approved $13.55m from the Covid Response and Recovery Fund to support foodbanks and social sector agencies, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni has announced. “Foodbanks and social agencies across Auckland are doing a great job supporting their communities and the Government is today providing them with more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Generating a new generation of guardians
    The Government is supporting a Whakatōhea-led project undertaking landscape scale restoration in forests and around vulnerable rivers within the Eastern Bay of Plenty, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “The Whakatōhea Tiaki Taiao project will employ four people to undertake pest and weed control, ecosystem restoration and monitoring over three ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Parts of Waikato, Northland staying at Alert Level 3
    The parts of Waikato that have been in Alert Level 3 and Northland will remain in Alert Level 3 for a few more days, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Auckland remains at Alert Level 3, Step 1. “Based on the latest public health information, ministers have decided that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New courthouses for Tauranga and Whanganui
    The Government is moving ahead with new courthouses in Tauranga and Whanganui, which the Justice Minister says provide an opportunity to redesign court facilities that help put victims at the heart of the justice system. “These courthouses are part of the 10-year infrastructure investment plan to restore and modernise Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech on the launch of the consultation on the development of the Emissions Reduction Plan
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Ngā mihi o te ata. Earlier this month Save the Children wrote to me with their most up to date analysis on the impact of climate change. What they said was that children born in Aotearoa today will experience up to five times as many heatwaves and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Opportunity to shape NZ’s first Emissions Reduction Plan
    The Government is inviting New Zealanders to inform the country’s first Emissions Reduction Plan with the release of a consultation document containing a range of policy ideas to decrease the country’s emissions, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Climate Change Minister James Shaw announced today. The Emissions Reduction Plan will set ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Convention on Biological Diversity COP 15, Virtual High-Level Segment
    Kia ora koutou katoa. I want to thank China for hosting this critically important Conference of the Parties. We are all here for the same reason. Biodiversity loss, and the ongoing degradation of nature, are accelerating at an unprecedented rate. These losses are causing irreparable harm to our planet’s ability ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government books show resilient and strong economy
    The end of year audited Crown accounts released today show the Government’s health led approach to the COVID-19 pandemic has protected New Zealand’s economy. “On almost every indicator the accounts show that the New Zealand economy has performed better than forecast, even as recently as the Budget in May. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • ​​​​​​​Health system is ready for assisted-dying law
    The health system is ready for the implementation of the End of Life Choice Act when it takes effect next month, making assisted dying legal in New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. The law received 65.1 per cent support in a public referendum held alongside last year’s general ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Taking a lead in threat to curious kea
    Reducing lead poisoning of kea, the world’s only alpine parrot and one-time New Zealand bird of the year winner, is the goal of a two year project being backed by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says.  “Lead poisoning is a serious threat to this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government provides certainty to working holiday and seasonal visa holders and employers for summer
    The Government will extend Working Holiday visas and Supplementary Seasonal Employment (SSE) work visas for six months to provide more certainty to employers and visa holders over the coming summer period, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi has announced. “This offers employers and visa holders the certainty they’ve been asking for going ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Lower card fees good for businesses, consumers
    The Bill to help lower the cost of the fees retailers get charged for offering contactless and debit payment options is another step closer to becoming law, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Dr David Clark said today. “COVID-19 has changed the way we spend our money, with online and contactless ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Mandatory vaccination for two workforces
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