Open mike 01/05/2023

40 comments on “Open mike 01/05/2023 ”

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1. pat 1

   1 May 2023 at 7:26 am

   "New Zealand is one of the highest per capita energy users on the planet. We waste a lot of energy to do things that are unnecessary for our fundamental wellbeing."

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/green-growth-approach-to-climate-change-will-do-more-harm-than-good

   Understanding is beginning to spread
   • Ad 1.1

     1 May 2023 at 9:02 am

     The author doesn't provide evidence for the assertion you quote.

     He concludes with a conservative trusim:

     "Various trends in the past century have created expectations that whatever we wish for we are entitled to. The magic of fossil fuels, along with a trillion dollar a year marketing and advertising industry, has made those manufactured wishes feel like needs."

     Just a few points would show that NZers cope with major change better than expected:

     • Television news, printed newspapers, landlines, books, and mail and receding very rapidly
     • Cash is receding to nothing
     • Whole sectors working and learning from home, permanently
     • Rapid managed retreat from coastlines is occurring and enforced by nature
     • Traffic across the Auckland Harbour Bridge has stalled in number for over a decade
     • Manufacturing with heavy energy use has stalled and likely to recede
     • National and Labour are proposing massive accelerations of renewable energy generation, with the national target of 100% national generation by 2030 which is just 7 years away
     • https://www.national.org.nz/electrifynz?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI7fTQj7_S_gIVlZhmAh26pQ-WEAAYAiAAEgLVlvD_BwE

     Of course the biggie in New Zealand is transport fuel use which is very hard to decrease for all our small vehicles outside 2 urban centres of Auckland and Wellington.

     Plenty of optimism
     • pat 1.1.1

       1 May 2023 at 9:22 am

       All the evidence needed ….

       "Understanding is beginning to spread"…that dosnt mean magical thinking has disappeared, merely that it is diminishing.
       • Ad 1.1.1.1

         1 May 2023 at 9:42 am

         Lordie how tiring.

         This is like Alexander Bell complaining that it will be impossible to replace the telegraph because Starlink hasn't had enough launches yet.

         Of course it is the case that existing technology requires a volume of mineral resources.

         Whether that is a limitation to the energy revolution required for replacing oil combustion is not examined.

         That is not a reason to be pessimistic that the energy revolution cannot be attained, or even that there are too few mineral resources to achieve it.

         Understanding needs quality assurance.
         • pat 1.1.1.1.1

           1 May 2023 at 12:30 pm

           word salad for lunch today
           • Ad 1.1.1.1.1.1

             1 May 2023 at 1:14 pm

             Stop bringing bananas to a knife fight.
             • pat …

               1 May 2023 at 1:30 pm

               Knife fight?….how then did you manage to shoot yourself in the foot?
               • Ad …

                 1 May 2023 at 1:53 pm

                 Do yourself a solid and read the following to get yourself a relevant opinion:

                 https://www.bec.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/BEC-Report.pdf

                 https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/

                 https://www.ea.govt.nz/news/eye-on-electricity/new-zealands-electricity-future-generation-and-future-prices/

                 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-modelling/energy-modelling/new-zealands-energy-outlook/

                 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/1597b02644/nz-energy-outlook-electricity-insight.pdf
                 • pat …

                   1 May 2023 at 5:52 pm

                   Did myself the opposite of a solid and read the first linked report…..if thats what you are reading then your attitude is unsurprising….it is entirely materials blind and an example of the magical thinking that pervades yet states….

                   "It is important to view the scenarios developed for the BEC2050 project not from the perspective of whether you believe they will occur, but whether it is believable that they could occur."

                   Perhaps then need to take their own advice.

                   Consequently I wont waste my time on the subsequent links unless you wish to direct me to one that isnt similarly flawed
         • Sanctuary 1.1.1.1.2

           1 May 2023 at 1:33 pm

           A reason to be optimistic…

           "…2022 may be “peak” power emissions

           Wind and solar are slowing the rise in power sector emissions. If all the electricity from wind and solar instead came from fossil generation, power sector emissions would have been 20% higher in 2022. The growth alone in wind and solar generation (+557 TWh) met 80% of global electricity demand growth in 2022 (+694 TWh). Clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth in 2023; this would be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession. With average growth in electricity demand and clean power, we forecast that 2023 will see a small fall in fossil generation (-47 TWh, -0.3%), with bigger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar grow further. That would mean 2022 hit “peak” emissions. A new era of falling power sector emissions is close…."
           • Ad 1.1.1.1.2.1

             1 May 2023 at 1:48 pm

             Yes it needs a whole post, rather than a set of bullshit reckons from one non-applicable academic.

             If I get a moment over the weekend I will go through the Climate Commission, MBIE generation outlook, BusinessNZ Energy Council future demand scenarios, and Electricity Authority generation outlook.

             All of the facts are pretty well understood in those forecasts,

             None of it has much cause for anxiety for NZ.
       • Incognito 1.1.1.2

         1 May 2023 at 7:58 pm

         …that dosnt mean magical thinking has disappeared, merely that it is diminishing.

         You wish! Old magical thinking is merely replaced by new magical thinking with a different name.

         A YT clip that is 1 hour 12 mins and 37 secs long. “All the evidence needed” for what? Sounds like Gospel to me. What understanding, if any, is one supposed to gain from watching something about metal mining?
         • pat 1.1.1.2.1

           1 May 2023 at 8:18 pm

           As you are well aware (or should be as a long time participant and moderator of this site) that link is to the work of Simon Michaux, one of the few or possibly the only person who taken the time to evaluate the wherewithal to replace/reduce fossil fuel energy….work that has been presented and discussed here on many occasions previously.

           What is anyone to gain from 'something about metal mining'?….perhaps the knowledge that to create something you first need sufficient materials to do so, nevermind technical ability political will or public acceptance.
           • Incognito 1.1.1.2.1.1

             1 May 2023 at 8:34 pm

             Thank you.

             I was asking for a friend.

             Your brief explanation about the ‘learning outcome’ from watching the YT clip is helpful and might save my friend from having to watch the whole clip or may pique his interest to watch the whole thing.

             FYI, the YT clips don’t embed and one has to click and open the link to find out what it is about. A little pre-explanation commentary goes a long way, but as a long-term commenter of this site you already knew this.
             • pat …

               1 May 2023 at 8:43 pm

               And obviously as your friend knew it was "something about metal mining" he;she would have also seen the authors name prominently listed and his/her interest may have been piqued…..even it hadnt been on the numerous previous occasions.
               • Incognito …

                 1 May 2023 at 9:02 pm

                 My friend did not recognise the name and prefers to read past misleading headlines, empty slogans, fancy titles associated with internet fame & fads. So, no, nothing obvious about it, I’m afraid.

                 Anyway, you’d be surprised how many friends visit this site every day and whom you have never heard of and likely never will.
                 • pat …

                   1 May 2023 at 9:09 pm

                   Well for those friends here is a brief (5 min read) for their perusal which quotes Michaux's work

                   "All of these incontestable realities highlight the fact that our dreams of a renewable powered boom are illusory. We need a different conversation than fossil fuelled business as usual or a Green New Deal.

                   Michaux has offered some starters.

                   “We need frank discussion about what minerals we think we need versus what we’ve got,” he said in an excellent interview with Nate Hagens on his podcast, The Great Simplification. “And then we’re going to realize that what we got won’t work with the existing plan.”

                   Fundamentally, we need to talk about a future of less instead of a future of more.

                   Society will have to build simple products that last and that can be easily recycled.

                   “And we will scale back our needs and our society will simplify,” adds Michaux.

                   That is the conversation we should be having now. The one we continue to avoid."

                   https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-10/the-rising-chorus-of-renewable-energy-skeptics/

                   Those friends may note a certain similarity to the original article posted this morning from Newsroom .
                   • Incognito …

                     1 May 2023 at 9:37 pm

                     Yes, that’s very helpful intro, thank you.

                     It drives me nuts that things break down so quickly nowadays and nobody and no company does any repairs anymore – they’ll ‘happily’ replace if it is still under warranty and the user was not at fault.

                     Coincidentally, I went online today to find replacement parts for a device and found it with the help of Bing AI. Although I saved myself some $$, the greatest satisfaction for me was that I can continue using the device without having to throw it in the rubbish bin and buy a brand new one that does exactly the same thing but has more bells & whistles than I want and need.

                     In Auckland they are now delivering compost bins to households but they still have a long way to go compared to recycling efforts in some European places. In my neck of the woods people love dumping their household crap and even garden waste – it is a sad view and an indictment on society.

                     https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/rubbish-recycling/food-scraps-collections/Pages/default.aspx
             • tWiggle …

               1 May 2023 at 9:14 pm

               https://www.simonmichaux.com/

               The short version, synopsis in 60 s of scrolling.

               Mentions the 1972 Club of Rome 'Limits to Growth' project as a cornerstone for assumptions about peak everything. Hmm.
               • tWiggle …

                 1 May 2023 at 9:22 pm

                 "The 2020 study examined updated quantitative information about ten factors, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint, and concluded that the "Limits to Growth" prediction is essentially correct in that continued economic growth is unsustainable under a "business as usual" model

                 The study found that current empirical data is broadly consistent with the 1972 projections and that if major changes to the consumption of resources are not undertaken, economic growth will peak and then rapidly decline by around 2040"

                 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

                 Guess we kinda think that pessimistically on our bad days.
               • Incognito …

                 1 May 2023 at 9:39 pm

                 What does “hmm” mean?
                 • tWiggle …

                   1 May 2023 at 11:07 pm

                   To answer, the phrase Club of Rome stirred up embedded ancient negative detritus, but jumping onto Wikiped updated my faint twinge.

                   Been remembering recently a conversation with my friend Annette in the early 80s, telling me that her lecturer claimed "global warming will be critical by 2020 if we do nothing now!" She wasn't even doing sciences, but womens' studies. Lo and behold! Hmm.
2. Sanctuary 2

   1 May 2023 at 8:05 am

   White rabbits!
3. Visubversa 3

   1 May 2023 at 9:42 am

   Just in case there is anyone here who still doubts that Gender Ideology is homophobic.

   https://reduxx.info/from-her-to-him-the-downfall-of-a-lesbian-dating-app/

   "You can pick any gender identity and sexuality you wish and exclude any you choose… just as long as it isn’t male,” DJ Lippy remarked to Reduxx. “It’s like opening an all you can eat vegan buffet but sneaking salami into all the dishes. When you complain, they kick you out and call you a pork exclusionary radical vegan."
   • Sabine 3.1

     1 May 2023 at 3:25 pm

     It is a homophobic, anti women – human females of all ages, anti child, pro heterosexual / fetishistic / pornified/ pro commercial sex / pro commercial child birth government funded authoritarian Patriarchy males rights movement.

     These trans identified males and females have been yelling at same sex attracted people for a while now for their refusal to fuck these trans identified individuals.

     Also, see the vitriol that is extended to women – human females, who would rather divorce their now 'dead' husbands before having to pretend to be a lesbian to please their 'wifes'.

     This movement is anti everything that does not comply immediatly to their wishes.

     It is a pity for the LGB community, the transsexual community, and women in children as they well i guess they are collateral damage. But that too was always thus.
   • Anker 3.2

     1 May 2023 at 7:19 pm

     Yes people think they are supporting the Rainbow Community in supporting Trans rights, but actually many lesbians have been ostricized and smeared by the community they helped establish.
     • tWiggle 3.2.1

       1 May 2023 at 9:27 pm

       If you're talking about HER, the lesbian, queer and non-binary dating site started more than 10 years ago, they were not very impressed with being taken down off Twitter by trans exclusionary activists on World Lesbian Visibility Day a few days ago.

       They point out no one is forcing users of the site to hook up with anyone they don’t want to.
       • Anker 3.2.1.1

         1 May 2023 at 9:56 pm

         I wasn't talking about HER
4. Sanctuary 4

   1 May 2023 at 9:48 am

   Post truth news in the MSM example #9785:

   Government to slap toll charge on new $830m road north of Auckland

   First, the headline – "Slap" – a sudden or direct blow.

   Tolls have been signalled for almost the last 20 years for penlink. The headline is misleading, designed for an emotional rather than a rational response.

   "…Public consultation in 2006 by the former Rodney District Council showed 90% of the public supported a tolled Penlink. However, results from a second consultation last year have not been released on Waka Kotahi's website… …Residents of the Whangaparāoa Peninsula have previously told Stuff they felt was unfair they would have to pay a toll on top of a regional fuel tax, when other infrastructure projects around the country weren't tolled…"

   So: The last time they were asked, 90% suported a toll. However, some un-named randoms felt it was "unfair" – an emotional response to the only fact, which is 90% supported a toll when last asked. Still, who is interest in facts when someone is upset it is unfair?

   So who actually is upset?

   "…Albany ward councillors John Watson and Wayne Walker previously said public mood on tolls had shifted since the regional fuel tax was introduced in 2018, calling it “double charging”…"

   So it turns out it probably just a couple of local right wing councillors and their mates.

   This sort of emotional driven, post truth, negative bias MSM stuff has consequences. Citizens have nowadays been totally trained & encoouraged by the MSM to respond emotionally to news stories rather than rationally. A loaded story on Penlink to Tucker Carlson is on the same continuum. When the MSM sits about pretending to be puzzled about the rise of anti-vax sentiment or Trumpism, their complicitly is never really examined.
   • Ad 4.1

     1 May 2023 at 9:58 am

     Watson and Walker are just fucking idiots.
   • Bearded Git 4.2

     1 May 2023 at 10:00 am

     "Heavy vehicles will pay double those rates".

     Heavy vehicles, especially trucks, cause around 1000 times the road damage of a family saloon. Tolls should reflect this.
     • Sabine 4.2.1

       1 May 2023 at 3:27 pm

       The only people that will pay these tolls are the ones that can not write them off as a cost of doing business. Trucking companies will not care one bit. Ditto for any other company car, lease plan car etc.

       The worker that will need to use this road for what ever reason, or the traveler that wants to go on holiday will pay the full price. I hope that the Tolls reflect this.
       • tWiggle 4.2.1.1

         1 May 2023 at 10:10 pm

         https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018888241/toll-confirmed-for-new-whangaparaoa-penlink-road

         The $3 toll is to cover $1mi pa maintenance costs. The new road saves 20 min of drive time.

         Assuming this is at 80 kmp on the old road, the distance saved is 25 km. A Nissan Micra uses 6.7 L/100 km, which is at the low end of fuel consumption. 6.7 L x 25/100 x $1.90/L = $3.20. Already saved the toll. Savings for most cars and heavy vehicles will be more, apart from e-cars, of course.

         Initial announcement of PublicPrivate Partnership for Transmission Gully

         TG: We are paying the construction company making this road $1.2 bi, which includes a 25 year maintenance cost. It saves 27 km, plus stops and starts, along the Pukerua-Porirua highway.
         • Sabine 4.2.1.1.1

           2 May 2023 at 10:23 am

           Three dollar every day both ways quickly makes a big dents. Something like almost 30 bucks a week on a min wage is a big expense which will effectively only be paid for by the end user .

           Commercial users of this road will write this cost off as a business expense and reduce their taxable income by the cost of their expenses. So in essence the high users will still not pay for this road. They will have that expense returned to them courtesy of the tax system, and they will be fully subsidized by the tax payer.

           That is the only fact that really matters. Unless of course we are happy for other people to spend 40 min more in traffic because they can't afford the new shiny Toll road.

           edit, i have no issues with Toll roads, but if you want commercial users to pay for that road you need to remove that tax benefits that come with commerical vehicles.
   • Belladonna 4.3

     1 May 2023 at 5:48 pm

     I note, however, there are no proposed tolls on the most recently opened expressway – Kapiti.
     Would that be because it's in Wellington, and politicians are just more sensitive to local opinion there?
5. SPC 5

   1 May 2023 at 4:02 pm

   Biden ruminates and journalists release methane at the White House Correspondents dinner.

   
   
   
   • SPC 5.1

     1 May 2023 at 4:05 pm

     The Daily Show's token black male leads the response
   • SPC 5.2

     1 May 2023 at 4:54 pm

     Blame Rupert Murdoch and Fox for Iraq, Trump, and The Big Lie
6. adam 6

   1 May 2023 at 4:30 pm

   I like how the du(n)ce from act thinks taxing the greedy is tall poppy syndrome.

   Like your that dumb to fall for that lie.
7. tWiggle 7

   1 May 2023 at 11:46 pm

   Thanks SPC, those were interesting links. Biden is turning out to be an excellent orator, resilient in working a crowd, even a negative, Republican one. Loved the Brandon glasses/persona at the end, defusing the dog-whistle right-wing meme by owning it.

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