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7:00 am, January 2nd, 2020 - 77 comments
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Well that was underwhelming….indeed a non event.
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/103141/top-leader-geoff-simmons-wants-us-focus-meaningful-issues-when-we-talk-about
Would you like to share why it's no good.
Hes making good sense to me .
Capitalism is just a tool for getting things done we just need government to set good boundaries and find ways to redistribute the goodies.
Why?….
"In my previous article I set out how the eco-socialist movement is fixated on the claim that we can’t have exponential growth on a finite planet. I argued they are wrong.
Ultimately though it was a technical answer to a stupid question. In this article I will set out why I think the question is stupid, and what I think the important conversations are to have"
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/103140/top-leader-geoff-simmons-argues-eco-socialist-claim-we-cant-we-cant-keep-growing
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/103141/top-leader-geoff-simmons-wants-us-focus-meaningful-issues-when-we-talk-about
"I don’t want to speak for a whole profession here, so I will speak for myself. That said, I think many economists would agree with what I have to say.
I completely accept we live on a planet with finite resources. Thankfully I doubt we will ever use them all because they eventually become too expensive to extract. And usually, thanks to the wonders of human ingenuity, alternatives become available.
Nonetheless, there are two ways that exponential growth is possible even with limited resources: productivity growth and inflation."
…..you need to ask?
Er, yes – we do. It looks like you don't agree that productivity growth and inflation allow exponential growth within a finite system, but he's provided a lengthy explanation for his claim that it does, whereas you've just provided an assertion: "underwhelming….indeed a non event." That doesn't give us much to go on for why you think he's wrong.
he has provided nothing except an unsubstantiated opinion….and contradicts himself into the bargain.
Kindly point to where he has demonstrated that critical resources are not finite or that their extraction can continue ad infinitum or even demonstrated viable substitutes for said critical resources?
"The eco-socialist movement argues that we can’t have exponential growth on a finite planet"….does not refer to finacialisation (as he must know, though given the quality of the articles perhaps he does not) but real resources that underpin the lives and systems of the human economy.
Good grief
Why ? it had some salient points and was not meant to be an economic thesis
i swear i had read that same creed already, especially this line here '
and that phrase along to me indicates taht while he spins a nice yarn (and hopefully gets paid by the word for it) he is still advocating that nothing much should be done, lest we throw out captialism with the bathwater.
and not one of those points addressed exponential growth on a finite planet
Take a look at the tables on this page, particularly where it breaks down the numbers between the advanced/eurozone/developing economies:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product
What stands out is that the the Eurozone is growing at a very modest 1.6%, while it's the developing nations (lead almost certainly by China, India and parts of Africa) that are leading the charge with growth rates over 4%.
This makes sense, as I said before it's not the top 'golden' 1b people who are expanding rapidly, it's the other 6b who are rapidly catching up. Are you going to go and tell them they have to remain poor?
The other factor that is often overlooked is that the demographics of most developed nations are heavily weighted towards older people, who typically consume less than younger people building families, homes and careers. And overall it's now thought that total human population will peak within a century and decline thereafter. Human growth … once we achieve a certain threshold of development … is absolutely not 'exponential' or 'unlimited'.
Uncritically parroting 'unlimited growth on a finite planet' is a simplistic and inadequate slogan; growth is neither unlimited, nor are resources finite. The far more interesting questions is … what kind of progress do we want?
Because progress and growth are not the same thing. Up until this point in human history because most people were so deeply impoverished, they were usually tightly linked … more of something almost always meant a progressive improvement. Catch one animal good, catch two … feast time! It's bit of instinctive calculus that's deeply embedded in us.
In the past 400 years however a potent mix of science, tech and capitalism have largely solved the impoverishment problem. This means that growth and progress are no longer necessarily so closely coupled. Now it's possible to have too much of what was once considered a good thing. But our instincts and social systems have yet to catch up.
This is the political conversation Geoff is touching on, what do we really mean by progress, and how should we measure it? Especially when 'growth' is no longer the best measure of it.
The conversation I got from Simmons was that the New Zealand economy can look forward to stagnation, so chin up, look at Japan – they haven't grown for decades and the sky hasn't fallen in. If you wanted us to address the economic and therefore chronic social problems in your town, you're out of luck.
In that I suspect Simmons is being a tad pessimistic, of all the developed nations NZ is unusual in three respects; one is that we still have a rectangular demographic pyramid, in other words we still have enough young people to sustain current levels of activity for at least another generation or two.
The other is Kiwisaver; it's impact is cumulative and with time it's impact is going to be felt more deeply on the local economy over the next few decades.
The third factor is our high comparative political and social stability; we will be increasingly seen as a desirable , reliable and trustworthy nation. This is probably our biggest asset.
Still either way you cut it, growth for it's own sake is no longer the ideal. In this I think everyone, Simmons and everyone here would agree. But what do we replace it with? Certainly the Japanese have shown it's possible to have an advanced and functioning society with little to no overt growth; and in that light it would be interesting to see in what ways they have managed to progress in these decades? Did they simply mark time, or have they improved life in other ways?
If growth is no longer the priority, then shifting attention to our chronic social problems could well become a higher priority.
Orange glow and hazy yellow skys.
It seems that the smog from OZ is creeping up the North Island.
And up into the Pacific
https://twitter.com/nzdodo/status/1212460307034988544
Half a billion animals perish in Australian fires and now one hell of a picture of a humanitarian crisis as thousands have been given 24hr notice to leave – no food, water, or power
Could it be said that entire species have been lost because of refusal to fund firefighters in rural areas + acknowledge climate change/climate manipulation? I think so.
Heck, ever thought how NZ will fare in a fire like that? Cause our rural fire fighters for the most part are unpaid under appreciated voluntary fire fighters.
And the animals that died, died because of Greed for the most part. The rural vollies just can't keep up. Even if they showered money on them today it would not change a thing.
But then i guess its cheaper for government to expect the population to pick up the slack privatly, hold bake sales for new trucks and such rather then employ, train, and pay them. You can have tax cuts or you can have funded, well trained and well equipped emergency services.
Had a little taster with the recent Nelson Tasman Pigeon Valley fire in February, thousands evacuated and volunteer firefighters brought in from all over.
yep.
My partner is a volly 🙂 and we are literally just hanging on barely. One reason so far we got lucky is that we in NZ now tend to throw all resources at a fire to prevent it from spreading. And so far luck has been on our side. So far.
WE should all be scared.
One hopes that the Australian Navy is coming along to the party to help evacuate these people. Cause the only way out for them – it seems – is via the water.
Can't bear to look at your first link A @ 4. Too distressing.
Yesterday Scott Morrison made the most appalling speech ever… apart from his gaffe about the bushfires being a back-drop to the cricket, he also said this – and I quote from memory:
Still denying Climate Change! What is wrong with the Aussie voters. Take your collective heads out of the sand and stop voting neanderthals into power.
Three years back we were driving down the relatively remote Henty Highway in VIC on an extreme fire day. At one point we stopped near a farm gate, I remember leaning on it; it was too hot to touch. The Grampians were barely a km away, yet in the heat driven wind and dust we could barely see them. The eucalypt forest behind us stank of volatile oils; we had this very strong sense we should not be there, one slight spark and it was going to explode. It's not an experience you could have in NZ.
Here is a particularly good article on the conditions that lead up to extreme bushfire days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/what-makes-a-horror-fire-danger-day/10685918
It's the best parts of Australia that are burning down … we visited the SE Coast a year or so back; we have very fond memories of it. Places like Mallacoota are much loved gems and seeing this happen is tough. And I suspect the sheer intensity of these fires is causing irreparable damage; the landscape is not going to recover quickly or easily.
Still Australians have grown up with bushfires. It's remarkable working with them how unconcerned they can be about them, even ones that are quite local. I remember standing outside our factory looking at one burning about 10km away … no-one was wildly interested. Australia does burn … it's a fact of life here.
What is hard to convey is that the nature of the fire is changing, in scale, intensity and length of season. Some years are just going to be worse than others and there isn't a fixed pattern. Is this year going to be a tipping point? A lot will depend on how well the media handle the aftermath; if they can convince that these fires are not 'normal' and follow up intelligently I think it will be.
Is this year going to be a tipping point? A lot will depend on how well the media handle the aftermath; if they can convince that these fires are not 'normal' and follow up intelligently I think it will be.
I don't think so. There have been worse bushfires. 2009 springs to mind. Bear in mind that Australia accounts for only 1.3% of global emissions so climate change won't be seriously affected by whatever Australia does. If the biggest emitters like China, India, Russia, Japan and the US get their act together, then progress might be possible. But that probably won't happen anytime soon.
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions
Like everything to do with climate change … that 1.3% number is complicated.
I agree no-one can claim unequivocally that this year’s fires will change the political landscape; but there is no doubt that the ground has shifted in the decade since 2009.
Do you mean the 2009/10 fire season that was something like 15% the size of fires this year?
I'm surprised you're unsure of what bushfires I'm referring to, the deadliest in Australian history. But, yes, there have been others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires
https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2011/11/the-worst-bushfires-in-australias-history/
Depending on how one arbitrarily groups hundreds or thousands of fires over the season, deadliest is one thing – and like in most types of disasters, the death toll has been reduced due to those hard-earned lessons.
The scale of the fires this season seems to be about the largest on record, though. And that's the bit related to climate change, in all reasonable probability.
And yet Australia is the largest exporter of coal
If they left it lying around the fires could be even bigger! 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_Australia
Pretty much all of the mines are open cut with some underground. so unlike peat bog fires I fail to see how these current bush fires would be bigger.
Smiley means smile.
Yes, the Aussie media have a big role to play now. Lets hope they are up to it without fear nor favour.
I recall you telling us that story of the drive through a tinder dry Victoria. If I remember correctly you jumped in the car and got out of there poste haste, hearts in your mouths wondering if you were going to make it.
Yes, there has been complacency in the Aussie psyche over bushfires – the "she'll be right mate. We've been having them since God made little apples. We know how to handle em."
What they have got face up to is there is a new and terrifying element to them now. To begin with, they are going to happen on this scale more frequently than has been the case in the past and – as you rightly point out – over an increasingly lengthy bushfire season. It will eventually reach the point when they are occurring almost all year round.
The first thing they've got to do is toss out this Liberal led govt. Their mindset is such they are not equipped to even understand the situation, let alone take the actions necessary to minimise the effects.
Aussie media have been playing their part all along.
https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/1212155056763486211
When everyone realised that the phrase "hopes and prayers" was blatantly code for SFA … let's put it this way, it's not just cooked koalas, ScoMo's burned up a lot of political capital these last few weeks.
You can get conditions like that here Red. In 2001 in Marlborough our the fire index hit the mid 1100s, similar to as bad as Australia gets, it is a measure of humidity, fuel, heat, wind and a few other things. On Boxing Day there was two quite large fires, both started by muppets the first one was a out of townie arriving at his block and deciding to mow it with a tractor, something a local would not do in a million years and the biggest one was a casual cigarette butt which took 4 days to control and weeks to extinquish completely.
Our saving grace is that we do not have gum tree forests, which are essentially petroleum fires as it is the oil/air mixture burning ahead of the fire's ground front and that generally we rarely have "dry " thunder storms to start them, as well as a fair few brilliant helicopter pilots to get to them quickly.
BTW, in the biggie US satellite pictures identified the sq metre it started in and the car the cigarette came from but as we don't have number plates on car rooves there wasn't enough evidence for a stupidity charge.
https://twitter.com/mitchest/status/1211628654632960001
Measuring the meme moments,signal to noise.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1210869412544290816
I was looking at https://ourworldindata.org/ just yesterday. Much of what they are saying underpins the case I've been making here for a while now:
This is a vital point; too much of our political debate is shaped by a media with a warped agenda, driven not by principles or truth, but clicks and eyeballs. Outrage, sex and crime sell advertising dollars, but fail miserably to inform us.
This kind of data is now available in quite a few places, and it will take a bit of time to discover how trustworthy they are. All sources have their biases, even if what they say is true, often its what they leave unspoken which is harder to spot.
Still in principle this is how I see the great debates of the next decade being shaped, driven by global scale data, intelligently analysed and well presented.
oh look, it seems like the panama canal is broken. Its running out of water
https://sputniknews.com/amp/latam/202001011077917429-panama-canal-reportedly-suffering-from-major-water-shortage-lacks-over-40-of-needed-volume/?__twitter_impression=true
Just quietly wondering how many people will see your link and reckon to themselves that you're some kind of Russian stooge spinning Putin fake news. Won't be believed unless and until it's reported by such august bodies as the BBC, CNN, WaPo or NYT…at which point, anything being reported will be believed 🙂
And sorry if that wee speculative observation and rant detracts from you sign posting yet another example of how we've fucked up this wonderful rock in space that's been our world.
I don't actually believe in any of the 'fake news ' bullshit as all news has some aspect of truth to it, and then it has an ideological spin to it. And rather then discuss the actual news we are supposed to discuss the political spin. And i can take your comment and turn it around and say it has to be reported on RT or what nots as some wont believe CNN et al. 🙂
And for what its worth, someone considering me a "Russian stooge spinning Putin fake news' would be a nice counterpoint to the 'globalists' 'killary supporter' indentity politics supporter (aka woman) and all the other shit that some here have thrown at me, simply because what i say might not support their own narrative or simply because outspoken people that don't subscribe to people worship and party worship are 'verboten'.
So i post my links, and people can click on it, read it, believe their own eyes or wait for someone to confirm their biases.
“All news has an aspect of truth to it” except for the moon landings never happening because they were filmed in a studio !
Here's a more "worthy" rendering of the same report, presume AFP will suffice.
https://www.france24.com/en/20191231-panama-marks-20-years-in-charge-of-canal-faces-climate-threat
The precarious nature of water flow in the Panama Canal has been known for a long time, item below from 2014, and can remember reading about it being a limiting factor when the expansion was happening.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/aug/14/climate-change-panama-canal-water-shipping-closures
Oh. I know it's been reported by various outlets.
The reasoning behind my comment (if "reasoning" is the right word) was, that like Sabine, I'm completely over the crap of people evaluating the veracity of stuff solely on whether or not it comes from a source that they can connect (in their own minds) back to a Russia/Kremlin/Putin source…before using whatever supposed "Russian connection" they can jig up as a smear against the person presenting "Russian tainted" information/news.
You'll see it all through reactions posted to the standard if a link is from Russia Today, or if an argument/point of view has also, and even coincidentally, been aired by Russia Today or Sputnik or MintPress etc.
Meanwhile, many of those same people will uncritically and forcibly push even the most ridiculous lines that come from any "anonymous sources" used, shared, boosted and merry-go-rounded by the BBC, CNN, Washington Post, NYT Guardian et al
When people cite/quote (here), they’re required to attribute to their source for a number of (good) reasons. One downside, however, is others choosing to disregard and dismiss the content/message for no other reason than the source/messenger.
Yeah, nah.
It far too often goes way beyond simply "ignoring" (which would be fine btw) and is used to launch off on personal attacks and smears that pull in 'support' from a second person and a third person because (and this is an important part of the dynamic) the target is not sufficiently and/or ideologically aligned with the gathering mob, who see an opportunity to gas light and goad that (they hope) will get a reaction that will result in the target copping a ban and never coming back.
I've seen it happen over and over and over again. And protecting a person who is being set upon like that is well nigh impossible. I know that, because I've tried, both as a commentator and as a moderator.
Very good points, thank you.
Mob behaviour and pile-on are impossible to predict (except in hindsight!) and control. Yet, they are hugely problematic, as you say, and I find them intensely frustrating.
Because I’m usually not au fait (i.e. completely out of my depth and thus out of my comfort zone) with the topics that are mostly associated with these behaviours, I stay out of these threads, as a commenter and as Moderator.
Banning the usual suspects, who tend to be the mob/mob-leaders and regulars here, would stifle the flow of comments and could kill the TS community. I’m not keen on a totalitarian approach to moderation.
It’s a reoccurring problem that feeds on past exchanges, i.e. there’s usually (a) history and some commenters ‘have form’.
I confess that sometimes it is easiest for me as a Moderator to remove the single commenter (even when they are/play the ‘victim’) from the equation to restore some peace here. I know it is not (always) the right thing to do but ‘pragmatic’ reasons take over sometimes.
Weka also mentioned recently her (unsuccessful) attempts to induce a culture shift and I guess appealing to/for self-moderation is fruitless 🙁
Maybe we should try to discuss it in the back-end. Moderation is very hands-off (light & lenient) and I’d like to think we are in the ‘sweet spot’ but there’s always room for improvement.
Banning the usual suspects, who tend to be the mob/mob-leaders and regulars here, would stifle the flow of comments and could kill the TS community.
The flip side of that coin being that allowing their continued presence has diminished the scope and breadth of political opinion presented on these pages over the years. (Go back and look at the comments beneath old posts. You'll see a marked difference in the quality of individual comments and the vitality of the comments sections in general)
Yes, I know what you mean, I think.
Many commenters of/on this site have been here for a long time and the pool of Authors is smaller too, I reckon. Do we need fresh blood?
I don’t know where we have gone ‘wrong’, if at all, or what we could do better, if anything.
Judging by the comments on other (NZ) blog sites I’d like to think that TS is still (!) one of the better ones – maybe it’s a sign of the times; civic-political engagement, in both numbers and level, is also dwindling and not just here in NZ.
And protecting a person who is being set upon like that is well nigh impossible. I know that, because I've tried, both as a commentator and as a moderator.
Same experience here, it's intensely frustrating and disappointing. The other aspect I always struggled with, that while as a left-wing site, right wingers were always going to face a head wind … in the end it became a scything machine. All but one or two are gone.
I always believed moderation had to be even-handed, in that it must treat people the same regardless of their political orientation or opinions. Or at least to the extent reasonable, perfection being impossible. Certainly I would defend anyone commenting here in good faith, even if I disagreed with them intensely. Can anyone remember the indefatigable 'burt' who could play comment ping pong for days if needed. Aggravating as hell, but he played his end of the game well and it's a shame we've lost people like him.
Or Wayne Mapp, we're fortunate indeed to have someone with his background even bother to comment here, yet far too often the response to him is surly and dismissive, with no attempt to engage the point. Or the ghastly pile-on's that Pete George gets almost every time; again no-one has to agree with him, but he's a long standing blogger in good faith. Yet some people see his name in the thread and behave like dogs fighting over a bloody chunk of meat.
Another way this shows up, extremist comments, sometime advocating violence or mass punishment, from so-called lefties slide under the radar with little to no response. An equivalent comment from a right winger would get jumped on.
Even-handedness is an important aspect of fairness and too often we’ve fallen short.
I’m guilty of the things you mention and I’m not proud of it 🙁
Moderators can’t be everywhere all the time and some things are easier to spot than others (yeah, I know this is a weak ‘excuse’).
Sometimes, others point out bad behaviour/comments and make moderators pay attention. I’ve found this helpful but I know that it has also been used to try shut up others.
I’d like to think that we are quite alert to comments inciting violence but mass punishment is ambiguous to me; can you please provide an example(s)?
I might give this some more thought and possibly do some experimenting with moderation – I have no illusions though as this cannot be solved by one person.
@RL…and I'm not even going to mention he who eventually (in comments, not in real life) filled the monster's shoes many around here fashioned for him to wear. lol – see how self censorship works? 🙂
I don't know about a burt on here but used to see a burt online somewhere else. I don't if he/she is still there or the lunacy got her/him.
Burt has been here recently (if it is the same Burt) and received a rebuke (from me – was fed up): https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-14-12-2019/#comment-1673197.
@ Peter.
And that's exactly the type of bullshit and imprecise comment that's not needed. Generally speaking, it's neither smart nor funny to suggest someone is insane or may have succumbed to lunacy. You might contend that what someone says is nuts (and back it up in some way 😉 ), but that's entirely different from seeming to wholesale throw them into a jar marked "lunatic", yes?
If it’s the case you were trying to allude to the lunacy of on-line communities, then really, you need to be more clear on that front given the nature of what you’re saying.
Yes, good comment, Bill!
Before I rebuked Burt, I did look into his recent history here, including moderation, as I did not recognise him as a commenter. In other words, I took my lead from other Moderators …
This song from 1973 by the Scottish group Stealers Wheels immediately springs to mind .
Posting for the enjoyment of all moderators this hot sunny afternoon:
Ta 🙂
@Incognito. Good grief man … your doing a fine job, better than I managed.
[deep bow]
Oh and I looked at that Burt comment you hammered https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-14-12-2019/#comment-1673197.
I suspect burt was channeling the infamous Michael Cullen remark from at least a decade ago using the same words. Burt was probably being too clever by half and his reference lost in the mists of time, which is why it looked so out of place … just suggesting.
No-one expects moderators to be omniscient 🙂
Roll another one,
Just like the other one.
You been holding onto it,
And I sure would like a hit!
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1212520413814808576
Which leads me to question, how is it something considered safe and saleable in one place be dangerous and requiring possible jail in another perhaps the law is an ass.
And further in a country such as our with the usage being quite common that none of those responsible for maintaining law were not at some function this festive season and not see a number of the group step out , form a circle and pass around a smoke, did they just turn away and deny that its happening, yet later this year take pleasure in destroying the life of some young person doing the same thing .
I find this quite confusing in a country that prides it's self on the low level of corruption.
Ah, but which law is the ass – the one legalising, or the one prohibiting?
The "low level of corruption" thing is a joke – we have loads of it, we just are "perceived" as having low levels. Not just mj, but everything from under-the-table contractors to big companies being let off charges because they're also big political donors. Small companies get pummelled for shit large companies have done for decades, and at worst view the (bargained-down) fines as still being cheaper than running an honest and safe operation.
Sometimes, buying time is the best option.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/117059423/kauri-dieback-11-waitkere-ranges-tracks-to-open-this-summer
Single issue nutters.
https://twitter.com/SethCotlar/status/1212526435929214976
Nothing on [the] BBC, CNN, WaPo or NYT …
/
https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1212609464529911808
https://sputniknews.com/viral/202001011077917612-cigar-shaped-ufo-video-arizona/
…oh..
/
https://twitter.com/GoodyearBlimp/status/1210963613227184128
While PM Scott Morrison plays with his balls at the Cricket, Australia burns.
Yothu Yindi – Timeless Land
(Music Video)
Scott Morrison criticised for hosting cricket match while fires rage.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/01/australia-bushfires-scott-morrison-criticised-for-hosting-cricket-match-while-fires-rage.html
https://twitter.com/samim/status/872837672439611392?lang=en
Kia Ora Newshub.
Condolences to all the Tangata who lost Whanau in the Bush fires.
Flooding in Indonesia climate change global warming.
It looked like the Great White Shark was caught in a net I could see the lines on its head from the net there are callous people everywhere.
Some tourists are quite careless while on holiday in Aotearoa.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
I could smell fire a few days ago.????
The Cook Islands experiencing flooding global warming is part of the cause.
That's the way Origin Earth selling milk the old way in Glass bottles.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Newshub.
That's awesome people saving Torohara.
I remember that hailstorm. Maybe in times of plenty they should donate some 2 grade fruit to the poor people.
That's great the endangered blackbilled Gull making a colony in a Ahurri estuary.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Wainakua great idea big whare were all whanau can live together.
The Chinese were treated badly by the Crown in the early days. Yes Maori Culture and Chinese Culture has a lot in common.
Korone marae having a whanau day they had a Pa Wars sports event at Pokai I wanted to go but no.
Ka kite Ano
https://youtu.be/qQfetkoGrpU
Kia Ora Newshub.
I got a tx and photo from Taramaki Makaru of the black out from the smoke.
We only have one environment.
Looks like PEE fueled hate going down in Tauranga.
The way that they fixed the Railways in Wellington is awesome. That's how all road work should be run.????.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Yes we must look after our mother Earth's environment.
Its good to see the Australian natives waiata.
Kawarau sounds like they need to up grade there town water supply infrastructure.
That’s a good idea a charity for the tamariki in need up North.
Ka kite Ano