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Open Mike 02/06/2017

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 2nd, 2017 - 54 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

 

54 comments on “Open Mike 02/06/2017 ”

  1. JC 1

    Sorry to spoil your day!. It has mine

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/332118/live-donald-trump-reveals-climate-deal-decision

    Donald Trump dumps Paris agreement

    • Cinny 1.1

      He’s just officially withdrawn ‘Murica from the Paris Climate Change Accord.

      What a stupid stupid man Agent Orange is, one would think saving the planet which gives us all life would be a priority.

      • garibaldi 1.1.1

        Did you hear his speech? He claims he has gained over $350 billion of ‘trade’ ,meaning thousands of jobs for Americans. That 350 billion is all for weaponry! America first ?
        It’s time the World woke up to the vile USA.

        • Cinny 1.1.1.1

          I did hear part of it, far out are you saying his ‘new jobs’ revolve around weapons? Why does that not surprise me.

          It does my head in when people complain it will cost too much to clean up certain industries and reduce pollution. I don’t understand why they are unable to grasp that without a planet there is no industry.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1.2

          It’s time the World woke up to the vile USA.

          The US is a rogue nation and it’s time that the Rest of the World started treating them as such.

        • James 1.1.1.3

          All weaponary ? Really all of it ? For a citation?

      • James 1.1.2

        sid he not say before the election hat he would so this ?

        He’s doing exactly what he promised and was voted in on.

  2. Green MP Catherine Delahunty lead a very successful public meeting in Invercargill last night at which fishermen, farmers, regional councillors, oil and gas activists, water forum members, ministers of the cloth, students , lecturers etc. listened and spoke with presenters (the MP, a regional councillor and a dairy farmer) who focused on the Mataura River in their talks, but drifted off into all aspects of environmental care as the evening progressed. looking around, I thought to myself, “This is a real “Land & Water Forum”. Grass roots, piaka harakeke, action; The Government can’t manage anything even close.

  3. Sanctuary 3

    And the liberal Blairite UK media start to move into outright denial phase…. LOL

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hung-parliament-yougov-model-not-true-a7764591.html

    • swordfish 3.1

      Pundits are right to remain a little cautious regarding the YouGov model … but I have to say that’s typical bluster and hyperbolic overdrive – “bunkum and balderdash” – from dyed-in-the-wool Blairite Rentoul.

      Lead continues to narrow

      As of Yesterday – Latest Tory poll leads:

      YouGov: 3pt
      Survation: 6pt
      SurveyMonkey 6pt
      FT poll of polls: 9pt
      Kantar: 10pt
      ICM: 12pt
      ComRes: 12pt
      Panelbase: 15pt

      Today:

      Pollster with most Con-friendly ‘house effects’ Panelbase: 8pt Tory lead (down 7 points in one week).

      • Karen 3.1.1

        As someone with a lot of knowledge of political polls, have you ever seen such a rapid decline in support for the leading contender, Swordfish?

        I have been a observer of politics in many countries for decades, but I can’t remember anything as dramatic as this during an election campaign. True, May has run an awful campaign and it does make you wonder whether she doesn’t actually want to win, as Bill suggested a couple of days ago.

        • Editractor 3.1.1.1

          There is an idea that Tory support hasn’t dropped at all. Rather, Labour has attracted support. Much of that support seems to be from younger people, so the problem of converting the polls into votes remains – http://survation.com/tide-turned-david-cowling/

        • swordfish 3.1.1.2

          Editractor is more or less right.

          Tories mildly down /Labour substantially up (consolidating its support at the expense of almost everyone – Tories, Lib Dems, Ukip, SNP/ PC, the Greens, and the previously Undecided (many of whom were 2015 Lab or Lib Dem voters).

          Rather than focusing on the Headline Poll figures, it’s useful to consider the Initial results (which are fully weighted but still include the Don’t Knows)

          Here’s a comparison I did between the 1st YouGov to be conducted after May announced the Election (18–19 Apr 2017) – when the Tories were at their height – with the latest YouGov

          … …YouGov (18–19 Apr 2017) … … (30-31 May 2017) … … Swing

          Con …. … … … … 34 … … … … … 31 … … … – 3
          Lab … … …. .… …18 … … .. ..… … 30 … … … + 12
          Lib Dem … …. . … 8 … .…. . .….. … 6 … … … – 2
          Ukip … … ….. …… 5 …. ..… . …. … 3 …. … .… – 2
          SNP/ PC . . …… .… 4 … ..… ..….. … 4 …. … ……. =
          Other … … … . …. 2 … …. . ….. .… 2 ….. …….. . =
          Will not vote ….. 10 … … . .…. .. . 8 …. … …. – 2
          Don’t know …. … 17 … ……. .…. 15 … .…. … – 2

          Con Lead … … …+ 16 … ..… … + 1

          Mild Tory decline /substantial Labour rise.

          • swordfish 3.1.1.2.1

            Headline figures for same Polls ….

            YouGov (18–19 Apr 2017) … (30-31 May 2017) … Swing

            Con …. … … … … 48 … … … … … 42 … …. .… – 6
            Lab … … …. .… …24 … … .. ..… … 39 … …. … + 15
            Lib Dem … …. .… 12 … .….. .…..… 7 … ….. … – 5
            Ukip … … ….. …… 7 …. ..… . ….. … 4 …. …. … – 3
            SNP/ PC . . …… .… 6… ..… ..….. .… 5 ….………. – 1
            Green . .. ……. .… 2… ..… ..…… .… 2 …. … ……. =
            Other … … … . …. 1 … …. . …… .… 1 ….. …….. . =

            Con Lead … … …+ 24 … ..….. … + 3

          • weka 3.1.1.2.2

            Is 15% high for the UK for Don’t Knows?

            • swordfish 3.1.1.2.2.1

              4 YouGovs conducted 5-10 days out from 2015 Election (ie same stage of Campaign) = Don’t Knows all in 10-11% range

              3 YouGovs Same stage 2010 Campaign = 11-13%

              • weka

                ok, so not that much more but a bit. (NZ’s are much lower right?).

                • swordfish

                  Polls since early 2016

                  Roy Morgans = Undecideds = all in 5.5-7.5% range

                  Colmar Bruntons = Undecideds = all in 10-13% range

                  Reid Research = Unknown (they play their methodological cards close to their chest)

  4. Carolyn_nth 4

    In the 21st century, residential electricity is a necessity, and shouldn’t be treated as a consumer product/service. Prices are escalating too much, and the fact that increasing numbers cannot afford the bills, mean the root of the problem needs to be fixed.

    Electricity is a public service, and shouldn’t be provided on a for-profit basis.

    Article on Stuff about increasing numbers of people having their power cut off due to unpaid bills.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Electricity is a public service, and shouldn’t be provided on a for-profit basis.

      That’s true of many of the services that were built up by the taxpayers because private industry wouldn’t do it and then got sold off by the government once they were profitable causing us to lose billions of dollars and decreased the evolution of those services.

      Electricity
      Telecommunications
      Airports

      And the list goes on.

    • srylands 4.2

      “Electricity is a public service, and shouldn’t be provided on a for-profit basis.”

      Could you please cite any examples internationally where this is the case?

      • Johnr 4.2.1

        NZ was like that pre 1984. Electricity was a govt dept and govt departments were not permitted to make a profit, this was also before the bogus “return on investment” nonsense invented by accountants.

      • Draco T Bastard 4.2.2

        Pretty much everywhere. It was only after such services became profitable from the massive investment by governments that the private sector became interested. Only after the money for nothing that is the hallmark of private businesses.

      • Craig H 4.2.3

        There are a number of US states where electricity is owned and run by the state, not private enterprise.

  5. Draco T Bastard 5

  6. joe90 6

    Obscene.

    In a newly released paper, researchers in Scandinavia and the United States use the Swiss and Panamanian leaks to show that global tax evasion is likely much more prevalent than previously thought. Their estimates indicate that the top 0.01 percent of the wealth distribution own about half of all offshore assets and may be hiding roughly a quarter of their wealth offshore.

    “Most of the tax evasion happens at the very, very top of the wealth distribution,” said Gabriel Zucman, one of the researchers.

    Zucman has previously estimated that the equivalent of about 10 percent of global gross domestic product is hidden in tax havens. These countries, which often have laws that ensure the secrecy of offshore accounts, include Singapore, Hong Kong, Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and, of course, Switzerland — which alone manages an estimated 40 percent of the world’s offshore wealth.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/01/researchers-are-figuring-out-just-how-much-wealth-the-super-rich-are-hiding-overseas/

  7. Ad 7

    Bloomberg is reporting on the direct conflict between intensive dairying in the McKenzie Country and New Zealand tourism industry, and puts it like this:

    “Since 2000, when Peter Jackson filmed the Battle of Pelennor Fields, the showdown between the armies of men and Sauron’s evil Orcs in “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” vast swathes of Mackenzie landscape have been transformed.

    Drawing water from nearby rivers and using pivot irrigation, farmers are creating circles of pasture that are as much as two kilometers wide, converting tussock grasslands that are the habitat of numerous endangered and threatened species of plants, birds, lizards and insects.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/middle-earth-desert-becomes-battlefield-again-in-row-over-water

    What the reporter is showing that our landscape has been so altered in the last two decades by intensive dairying that it would now no longer be possible to film The Lord of the Rings as they did. A nice large scale economic conflict, that hasn’t been managed.

    A few more articles like this in the global press and maybe there will be a political wakeup.

  8. The Chairman 8

    It’s become a political sore spot for the Government. Violent dairy robberies across the country seem to happen weekly, if not daily with the main target being tobacco.

    The Government says they are taking the issue seriously, yet there is no plan to halt tobacco tax increases.

    At years end, tax on tobacco will increase again, further fueling this crime-spree.

    If the Government were genuinely taking the issue seriously, they’d put an end to this experiment.

    • The Chairman 8.1

      Is Labour taking the issue seriously?

      The silence on this from Labour is astounding. The level of violence is tearing away at our social fabric. New Zealand used to be such a safe society, now shopkeepers are living in fear. It’s only a matter of time before the increase in violent crime negatively impacts upon our international reputation.

      It’s devastating the poor whom makeup the majority of smokers with smoking within Maoridom the most prevalent. Hence where is Labour’s outrage?

      The Government is handling this poorly, thus presenting Labour with the opportunity to score some political points, yet Labour seem to be MIA.

  9. james 9

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/06/lloyd-burr-labour-s-kiwibuild-immigration-pickle.html

    Good article on New Hub with Littles kiwibuild immigration pickle.

    Will be great to see him articulacy answer this question while still being able to keep his other commitments. Even better if he provides his assumptions and they make sense.

    • weka 9.1

      Wouldn’t it be great if Labour introduced a long term, permanent tradie apprenticeship scheme, created a govt department that built houses and provided permanent jobs through that, and managed immigration in the short and medium term to bring in temporary workers and prioritised tradies for residency applications?

      Encouraging owner/builders would be a good thing too.

      Not sure about the numbers in that article, but it really should be differentiating between people on temporary work visas and those immigrating permanently.

      • Craig H 9.1.1

        And they only need around 5000 staff, if that – it’s not like the programme requires colossal numbers of people, migrants or otherwise.

        • james 9.1.1.1

          Where did you get that?

          The article breaks it down as:

          Total migrants needed for the current housing forecasts: 12,763 per year

          Total migrants needed for current forecast + KiwiBuild (Labour estimates): 13,263 per year

          Total migrants needed for current forecast + KiwiBuild (Govt estimates): 17,363 per year

          • ropata 9.1.1.1.1

            Luckily the Kiwibuild policy is using projected figures and it can be changed if needed huh?

            As opposed to National’s policy which is to do nothing and blame Labour.

            This article proves that RWNJs only care about money not 1000’s of people SLEEPING IN CARS IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER

            Petty and stupid.

            • james 9.1.1.1.1.1

              “This article proves that RWNJs only care about money not 1000’s of people SLEEPING IN CARS IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER”

              Really – where?

              You did read it right?

              • Draco T Bastard

                Did you?

                Or, even better, did you actually think about what the lying reporter said?

          • Craig H 9.1.1.1.2

            I based it on 6 months worth of labour to build a house including fit out etc. Apparently at 4,600 per year as per DTB’s link below, I wasn’t far off. I have no idea why the government believes 46,000 people are required to build 100,000 houses, however – surely people can build more than 2 houses in 10 years. People will come and go, but it seems awfully unlikely that they will only do a year in the programme.

    • Draco T Bastard 9.2

      There are 245,600 people in the core construction workforce, of which 58 percent or 143,500 work in the residential construction sector.

      Interesting, MBIE seems to be missing about 70,000 people:

      The construction sector is one of the largest sectors in the economy, employing 171,000 people, which is over 7% of the workforce. It generates around $30 billion of gross revenues annually.

      Now, is MBIE wrong or the guy who wrote the opinion piece and who fails to link to his sources? I’m feeling the latter.

      The main trades training organisation BCITO can pump out up to 2500 local trade qualified workers every year. This covers 14 trades areas.

      The Skills Organisation covers most of the remaining trades areas – its latest figures show it pumped out 2049 electricians, 434 plumbers, and 82 roofers in 2015.

      It takes the total number of Kiwis who can be trained locally for the workforce to an estimated 5056 each year.

      And we’ll still have over 150,000 unemployed or around 6% of the workforce. Which actually tells us that we have the people available but that our training capability is inadequate to achieve what’s needed.

      And that’s not even taking into account productivity increases from things like 3D printing.

      The government claims KiwiBuild would need far more workers, and estimates an additional 46,000 people would be needed over ten years – that’s an average of 4600 workers a year.

      And, under this government, we’d still have ~6% or more unemployment.

      Labour’s Pickle

      Leader Andrew Little wants “net migration of 20-25,000”. It’s currently 71,333. That means a cut of between 46,333 – 51,333.

      When you take the number of additional migrants needed for housing, Labour will need to cut net migration by somewhere between 52,577 – 61,677.

      No, that’s not ‘Labour’s pickle’ but the reporter lying. See, we don’t actually need all the migrants that come in now.

      So, yeah, just looks like another lie from a RWNJ reporter.

  10. rhinocrates 10

    Interesting. The neoliberals’ Pravda aka The Economist ditches May in favour of the Lib Dems. Of course they weren’t going to endorse Labour and Corbyn, but I see it as an interesting indicator of the divisions in the right:

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21722855-leaders-both-main-parties-have-turned-away-decades-old-vision-open-liberal

  11. joe90 11

    So there is a sekrit Muslim in the White House.

    the MAGA people have convinced themselves that their god emperor Trump was speaking Arabic when he tweeted "covfefe" pic.twitter.com/zD1gw2NpMX— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) June 1, 2017

  12. Sabine 12

    this is a fabulous interview to watch.

    No fake media here 🙂
    or from Russia with love, and please spell your name while I take notes.

  13. ianmac 13

    “A Grand Coalition.” Gareth Morgan has an interesting idea:
    “…Incredibly, National and Labour appear to be closer together than the potential coalition partners Labour and the Greens are. While Labour and National fight over who is going to change the least, most of the interesting policy discussion is happening in the minor parties….”

    “…Of course it is unlikely to happen here, with the main barrier being party tribalism. Labour and National party diehards would never countenance such an idea, they are simply not mature enough to see that their approach is so close….”

    http://www.top.org.nz/a_grand_coalition?utm_campaign=2_candidate&utm_medium=email&utm_source=garethmorgan

    • Draco T Bastard 13.1

      Actually, IIRC, Michael Cullen said the exact same thing.

      And it’s ‘tribalism’ that keeps them apart by diametrically opposed philosophies to life.

      TOP seems to be so immature as to think that they’re right and everyone else is wrong. They’re still a capitalist party which means that they’re wrong about almost everything.

      • ianmac 13.1.1

        Maybe but some of the ideas are worth exploring. We shouldn’t condemn an idea just because of who said it.

        • weka 13.1.1.1

          Oh I don’t know. Just had a scroll through twitter and TOP are all about Morgan and condescension. More importantly I’ll question someone’s judgement who can’t tell the differences between Labour and National’s policies, or who chooses to lie to the electorate about them.

          TOP have some good policies and idea. How they talk about them is not so good, and once you scratch the surface you see an economist who isn’t left wing.

          A pox on ego-driven politics.

        • McFlock 13.1.1.2

          We shouldn’t condemn an idea just because of who said it.

          It sure as hell saves a lot of time otherwise spent dealing with bullshit, though.

        • weka 13.1.1.3

          Water Quality
          Housing
          Health esp. mental health
          Education
          Yeah go on, tell me there is no difference between the left and the right in NZ.

          We could make a long list.

    • Craig H 13.2

      National were literally formed to keep Labour out of government, so he’s asking the impossible.

      Also, there are a lot of fundamental differences in approach outside of economics e.g. employment relations.

  14. esoteric pineapples 14

    Interesting article on how the CIA infiltrates American newsmedia, sometimes clandestinely, sometimes in collusion with management and journalists.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/cia-washington-post-and-russia-what-youre-not-being-told

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