Open mike 03/11/2022

65 comments on “Open mike 03/11/2022 ”

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1. Ad 1

   3 November 2022 at 8:00 am

   Listening to Adrian Orr and other RBNZ leads this morning on RNZ I had an odd sublimely fatalist shivering sensation observing an inflation+interest rate wave rising high and entirely beyond any party or state power or instrument to protect us.
   • Sanctuary 1.1

     3 November 2022 at 8:05 am

     Labour is doing what it did during the pandemic – making sure average earners are shielded as much as possible from the fallout of high inflation by restricting the labour supply to keep unemployment low and wages rising in line with inflation.

     Nicola Willis, who sounds more and more like yesterdays supply side fanatic everytime she appears in the media, attacks the government for the cost of living crisis, whilst demanding austerity, higher unemployment, wage cuts and higher interest rates.

     For all the faults of this Labour government, it has never been clearer that they are party of the people who live in this country, and National is the party of the people who see the country mainly as a place to make money – the bosses, the rentiers and the speculators.
   • Bearded Git 1.2

     3 November 2022 at 8:06 am

     He was a bit waffly and unclear I thought.
     • Sanctuary 1.2.1

       3 November 2022 at 8:13 am

       Actually he sounds like someone who has been burned by all the peer criticism from the ultra-dry economically orthodox and is now mainly concerned with keeping his job, even if it costs thousands of others theirs.
       • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.1

         3 November 2022 at 8:25 am

         Seems to have changed tack after the trip to Jackson Hole. This I put down to realising intetest rate hikes were the only game in town and he would be required to follow each time the Fed did to keep investors on side.

         If he doesn’t think thats sensible policy its going to get deflating to understand what policy you will be explaining for the rest of your term.
         • Ad 1.2.1.1.1

           3 November 2022 at 9:17 am

           US Fed just jacked to 4%.

           I guess a .5% jump for us in 2 weeks?
           • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.1.1.1

             3 November 2022 at 9:25 am

             That would be my pick. Not so clear how he will explain it, because its more or less motivated by the Fed decision, but he needs to justify it in terms of what's happening in NZ (which maybe nothing new).
           • Jimmy 1.2.1.1.1.2

             3 November 2022 at 11:38 am

             Although they were talking of a possible 0.75% jump!
2. Sanctuary 2

   3 November 2022 at 8:11 am

   BREAKING:

   Leading bank economists volunteer to be sacked to help fight inflation.
   • Molly 2.1

     3 November 2022 at 8:28 am

     
   • mary_a 2.2

     3 November 2022 at 9:31 am

     Love your sense of humour Sanc (2)
   • Bearded Git 2.3

     3 November 2022 at 11:52 am

     
3. Molly 3

   3 November 2022 at 8:27 am

   A question for those who have spare time on their hands. For those that don't – cool down – scroll past

   I read this story a while ago – and visited the social media and other direct sources of the main two subjects ( which may now have gone).

   Have come across this fairly comprehensive blogpost which outlines how this incident was wrongly portrayed by "alt=right trolls".

   When reading it, what questions arise (if any?), and what actions do you take?

   And what – in the end – do you take away?

   https://dogpatch.press/2019/09/10/hoax-alt-right-trolls/
   • weka 3.1

     3 November 2022 at 9:39 am

     I didn't read the whole thing, but it struck me as, on the face of it, well written, evenhanded and researched. In stark contrast to much of the debate in twitter around this.

     What I do on twitter is that I look at the account that is saying or doing the controverisal stuff. Sometimes the account looks new, or odd in some way, and I sometimes tweet about the third party actors who are there to shit post or do intentional damage to feminists, trans people and/or society. Lots of people are stuck in an us/them paradigm (GC/Genderist).

     If it was a topic I was interested in or had some investment in, I might join the conversation and push back against the bullshit (on both sides). My experience with this is that depending on who I talk with and how hard I push, I will get blocked by both sides 🤷‍♀️ It's important to do.
     • Molly 3.1.1

       3 November 2022 at 10:00 am

       "My experience with this is that depending on who I talk with and how hard I push, I will get blocked by both sides It's important to do."

       
4. Jenny are we there yet 4

   3 November 2022 at 8:53 am

   As well as being hellish cute, a sense of fun, and playfulness, have been linked to intelligence.

   I imagine, this discovery was also a joy for the researchers

   The more we find out about the natural world, the more you gotta love it.

   https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ball-rolling-bumble-bees-just-wanna-have-fun/?
5. Ad 5

   3 November 2022 at 9:09 am

   Who'da thunk the US makes Brazil look ordered and good.

   Bolsonaro clearly accepting defeat and enabling the transition of power to Lula shows by comparison how fast US democracy is degrading in real time.
   • Anne 5.1

     3 November 2022 at 9:51 am

     That was a pleasant surprise. Mind you the damage Bolsonaro wrought upon the land of Brazil was even greater than Trump in the US – at least in conservational and climactic terms.
     • Bearded Git 5.1.1

       3 November 2022 at 11:59 am

       The election was actually far from a good outcome. Lula scraped in and:

       "Brazilians elected a more conservative Congress in the Oct. 2 ballot, with supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro and the agribusiness lobby winning seats in both the lower and upper houses."

       “As the rest of the world closely watched Brazil’s presidential election on Oct. 2, the country’s conservative bloc made significant gains in a Congress that it already dominates. This could prove a key stumbling block to any future efforts to rein in the deforestation and environmental destruction that’s become a signature of the Jair Bolsonaro administration.”

       “Ricardo Salles, Bolsonaro’s former environment minister, whose resignation last year amid an ongoing illegal logging investigation….[won] one of the highest vote totals of any legislative candidate in the country.” [In the senate]

       https://news.mongabay.com/2022/10/conservatives-tighten-grip-on-brazil-congress-hampering-environmental-agenda/
       • tc 5.1.1.1

         3 November 2022 at 2:36 pm

         yup, here have the ceremonial chains of office and sit at the head of the table as the chooks come home to roost so we can all blame you.
6. Sanctuary 6

   3 November 2022 at 11:38 am

   A bit of good news from the West Island!
   • Bearded Git 6.1

     3 November 2022 at 12:06 pm

     Brilliant…NZ is dragging its feet on solar.
     • Poission 6.1.1

       3 November 2022 at 1:58 pm

       Australia still lags with total renewable the record set last friday at 68.7%,NZ at 1 pm today was 98% renewable (with only cogeneration being FF and biomass).

       All 4 main eastern states are now in excess production,with spot prices being negative from -36 to -41pmwh.This effectively means generators are being charged to generate.
7. Jimmy 7

   3 November 2022 at 11:40 am

   This is a good idea from Act. You guys will hate it.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/david-seymour-says-act-would-put-beneficiaries-refusing-jobs-on-income-management-to-tackle-labour-shortage.html
   • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1

     3 November 2022 at 11:59 am

     I know who I'd like to put on “income management“, and it's not the serfs.

     … you’ll get the necessaries of life, but it’s not going to be a holiday again and again and again. – Seymour

     Expect to (Sey)more of this – again and again and again.
     • Jimmy 7.1.1

       3 November 2022 at 12:19 pm

       Seems pretty sensible- if people are fit and able to work, but simply would rather not work, and just receive the benefit when there are numerous industries crying out for staff.
       • Visubversa 7.1.1.1

         3 November 2022 at 12:53 pm

         Jimmy, do you actually know anybody in that position? One of my nephews was unemployed a few years ago. He had an excellent Case Manager at WINZ who required him to apply for a certain number of jobs every two weeks – she checked up on him as well. Within a month he had 2 part time jobs, one of which turned into a full time job within a couple of months. He then decided that there was actually a Tech course he wanted to do do he enrolled in that and dropped back to part time hours at the same employer.

         I have refugee friends who will do any sort of work that is available – one woman had a junk mail delivery route within a month of getting out of Mangere, and then a part time cleaning job. She quit that job a few years later when she qualified for the pension as she had a shoulder injury from the heavy floor cleaner.

         The ones who "sit around" tend to be unemployable because of drugs or alcohol – or personality disorders.
         • Jimmy 7.1.1.1.1

           3 November 2022 at 1:49 pm

           Well done to those people who try to get ahead. It would not be targeting them. I do think WFF needs to be changed as I don't like the way it reduces if a person earns more / does more hours (as that's a disincentive to work more). Also I strongly believe the tax brackets need to adjust for inflation. The governments tax take has been far higher than expected partly due to wages increasing.
           • Sacha 7.1.1.1.1.1

             3 November 2022 at 1:55 pm

             I do think WFF needs to be changed as I don't like the way it reduces if a person earns more / does more hours (as that's a disincentive to work more).

             You will love how income support abatement works.
       • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1.2

         3 November 2022 at 1:14 pm

         Seems pretty sensible…

         Jiminy, your support for Seymour's opinion is pretty predictable, but surely you can’t expect to garner much support for it here.

         

         https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/16-08-2022/the-side-eyes-two-new-zealands-the-table
         • Jimmy 7.1.1.2.1

           3 November 2022 at 2:17 pm

           No I didn't expect any support for it here. Ironically I used a different "10 people at dinner analogy" on the tax cuts article – comment no. 17.

           The wealth distribution, that 10% of people have +50% of the wealth to me is a different subject. Why should wealthy people (who may have worked hard or not), or even middle class working people, have some of their wealth re-distributed to fit healthy people or would rather stay on a benefit when they could be working? To me it seems like a good policy to get people in to work rather than be benefit dependent.
           • Ad 7.1.1.2.1.1

             3 November 2022 at 2:47 pm

             The people still on unemployment benefits at 3% unemployed are people in very serious strife and need all the help we can give them, not more punishment.

             From my experience on multiple public and private institutions and mega-projects they need among other things:

             • a safe room to live in, paid literacy training, paid driver licensing training,
             • work designed that is enough for their skill level, right hours in the day,
             • people who can help get the kids into childcare,
             • lots of paid healthcare for addictions,
             • paid staff for a highly supported transition out of jail or other institutions
             • a really supportive on-site supervisor and team who can get them up out of bed and dressed and at work clean and sober every morning,
             • paid help with accounts and earning money, and often
             • a team that becomes a new set of friends as well.

             Check out the number of paid staff that needs. It's a lot. There are really good institutions around that do that, and a few really good employers as well – but as you can see it is a huge investment in social transition from social welfare entities and from the businesses who take them on.

             But honestly at 3% unemployed it is increasingly what we have to do. And it is intensely rewarding.
             • Visubversa …

               3 November 2022 at 3:50 pm

               You are quite right about the sort of support that is needed. One of my refugee friends works for a chap who supplies contract labour to orchards, packhouses etc. He has a couple of vans which go around and pick them up in the mornings – poor people have crap and unreliable cars – and he stops at a bakery or something on the way so that they can pile out and buy breakfast/lunch if needed. When he gets to where they are going he makes sure that they can do what is needed safely, and he has all the gloves etc they might need. He also spends quite a lot of time telling them how much he appreciates them and what good work they do – or if necessary he will coach and help until they are doing good work. Consequently, he never has to look for additional workers – his staff recruit for him every time and there is a waiting list. My friend used to have 2 part time jobs in Rest Homes which involved a lot of down time and travel. Now she is full time with overtime and really enjoying it. "Hard work" she says – "but good work".
               • Ad …

                 3 November 2022 at 4:47 pm

                 At least the bus driver crisis is finally hitting this government in its policy interests: public transport.

                 There are of course massive government partnerships that enable this stuff to occur like Mana In Mahi which goes from strength to strength. But our company has been taking in long-term beneficiaries and people straight out of prison for some years now.

                 Everyone has to make a commercial decision about what they take on, but the loyalty you get in return is so critical in this market.
               • Shanreagh …

                 4 November 2022 at 9:17 am

                 It amazes me that some of the bigger firms have not caught up with the idea of the firm providing transport to workers.

                 I worked at a series of jobs in factories while going through varsity. At least two of them provided transport to and from work. One in HB where I was living in Napier and the work was in Hastings. You just stood at a bus stop and a bus cruised past and picked you up. Same at night when you had finished your shift. There was public transport you could catch but the drop offs were not nearly as convenient. The bus particularly went through the suburbs where the majority of people lived, so south Napier on the flat.
             • AB …

               3 November 2022 at 5:13 pm

               Thanks Ad (7.1.1.2.1.1) – a fantastic, humane, clear-eyed and true comment. But for the Seymours of the world, the strawman of the 'idle scrounger' has to be maintained as an ideological foundation stone of the just-world fallacy.
               • arkie …

                 3 November 2022 at 5:27 pm

                 Likewise the meritocracy myth:

                 The most successful people are not the most talented, just the luckiest, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms.

                 …

                 The distribution of wealth follows a well-known pattern sometimes called an 80:20 rule: 80 percent of the wealth is owned by 20 percent of the people. Indeed, a report last year concluded that just eight men had a total wealth equivalent to that of the world’s poorest 3.8 billion people.

                 This seems to occur in all societies at all scales. It is a well-studied pattern called a power law that crops up in a wide range of social phenomena. But the distribution of wealth is among the most controversial because of the issues it raises about fairness and merit. Why should so few people have so much wealth?

                 https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/
               • Patricia Bremner …

                 3 November 2022 at 5:53 pm

                 Yes, I put Seelittle's idea in the same basket as the "homeless man who got free MIQ' of Woodlouse invention. Inventions of their narrative.
               • Shanreagh …

                 4 November 2022 at 9:18 am

                 Agree with your comments AB and of course with those of Ad.
             • Patricia Bremner …

               3 November 2022 at 6:14 pm

               AD at 711211 100%
             • Shanreagh …

               4 November 2022 at 9:28 am

               That is a very factual and clear eyed list Ad.

               Don't be fooled that a helper can got through the list and 'tick', 'tick'. Most have got sub-lists behind, so:

               people who can help get the kids into childcare

               And we have to

               1 look at kids vaccination records, any done? or are they up to date?

               and while we are there what about the other children and vaccinations for Mum?

               2 How is the child going to get to child care? So transport arrangements

               3 Clothes and spare clothes in case of play or other mishaps

               So if there are at least 3 sub projects for each item of Ad's this is a big 'do'. And wraparound services provided by a team.
           • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1.2.1.2

             3 November 2022 at 3:06 pm

             Plenty of ‘attitude‘ out there:

             “They were useless. Absolutely useless. Particularly young Kiwi men. I’m talking, sort of, under 21. Unreliable, dishonest, lazy.”

             As Lord Seymour suggests, all those "fit [and] healthy" ‘slackers’ could be 'encouraged' to perform any number of menial tasks, although these comments of PM English seem more considered than Seymour's.

             Prime Minister Bill English 'puzzled' by high numbers out of work and education [1 May 2017]
             "We find there's quite interesting groups in there – there's quite a big group of carers, for instance. Young people who aren't in education, employment or training for the very good reason they are at home looking after a younger sibling who might be disabled, or quite often an older person, maybe grandparents, who aren't well."

             Gosh, doesn’t Luxon make English look relatively competent, in hindsight.

             "Get people in to work" is laudable – forcing people into work not so much, although I acknowledge the appeal of an easy fix.

             https://www.connected.govt.nz/support-for-you/careers-advice/employment-support-services/
     • Incognito 7.1.2

       3 November 2022 at 5:43 pm

       I love holidaying in Te Puke again, and again, and again.
       • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.2.1

         3 November 2022 at 7:23 pm

         Cluxon's got staying power alright, no question – flips 'em like a pro. Best opposition joke leader since JuDarth's left eyebrow – what was the question again?
   • Sanctuary 7.2

     3 November 2022 at 12:14 pm

     Is that the same David Seymour who predicted 20 people a year would die from food poisoning if we banned cheap plastic shopping bags? That the same half wit? Just asking for a friend….
     • Jimmy 7.2.1

       3 November 2022 at 12:17 pm

       Perhaps he got modelling from Shaun (80,000 will die) Hendy!
       • Brigitte 7.2.1.1

         3 November 2022 at 12:54 pm

         Probably not. I reckon Hendy wasn't too far wrong about 80k if we did nothing. Looking at the two US states of similar population, they had 16k deaths with 20% of population infected just before the vaccines came out. So herd immunity at that rate would have been at least 60k deaths before considering the effect on the hospital system. And that excess deaths were higher than official covid deaths so 80k might have been a bit light in any case.
         • Jimmy 7.2.1.1.1

           3 November 2022 at 1:25 pm

           You're dreaming!
       • Drowsy M. Kram 7.2.1.2

         3 November 2022 at 2:17 pm

         "80,000 will die" was output from a Hendy et al. model in the worst-case scenario.

         Disease modeller describes ‘confronting’ moment he realised how many Kiwis could die from COVID-19 [22 March 2021]
         Hendy said thankfully, the Government acted quickly and New Zealand avoided thousands of deaths.

         Seems unlikely to me that Aotearoa NZ could have lost more than 20,000 – 22,000 Kiwis, i.e. similar to the COVID-19 death rates in the ten worst-affected states in the USA, but the early worst-case scenario predictions didn't allow for a vaccine, so who knows. Better safe than sorry, imho.

         Coronavirus: Modelling shows NZ’s lockdown could buy time for a vaccine [27 March 2020]

         So far NZ is sitting at ~15% of rate of deaths in those ten worst-affected states, all but a handful of which have occured in the last 8 months, over two years since the first COVID-19 cases were detected here. Could be worse!
       • Louis 7.2.1.3

         3 November 2022 at 5:00 pm

         Jimmy, you missed out the part that said "without strict measures such as the country-wide lockdown" It is thanks to the measures taken, including lockdowns that prevented large scale deaths in New Zealand, as seen in other countries.

         https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120604818/new-model-shows-coronavirus-could-kill-80000-kiwis-without-lockdown
         • Shanreagh 7.2.1.3.1

           4 November 2022 at 9:07 am

           Of course he did. Lurching from headline to headline and with antis too many to count, why bother with the facts?

           Just the misinterpretations please served with a side of Maccas.
           • Louis 7.2.1.3.1.1

             4 November 2022 at 12:02 pm

             
   • Tiger Mountain 7.3

     3 November 2022 at 12:19 pm

     Classic Bennie bashing from the Epsom incel.

     ACT are pathetic, let their supporters hire their own private security, and build their own highways for their Porsche Cayennes (Toyotas more like for most of them)! No police protection or two lane blacktop on the taxpayer for the Chicago Boy lot.
   • Louis 7.4

     3 November 2022 at 4:33 pm

     Short memory Jimmy? National and Act have already done it. Have you forgotten National's punitive welfare reforms that weren't exactly a success story? National created more poverty and hardship and it appears you want a repeat of that.

     "And if the beneficiaries refuse to work, Ms Bennett says the Government will reduce their sickness benefit.

     "There will be expectations that they are fronting up and working where they can, and if they're not actually doing those sorts of activities then yes we will be cutting their benefit by 50% to start with," she said"

     https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1008/S00260/government-to-crack-down-on-sickness-beneficiaries.htm

     "welfare policy announced by Prime Minister John Key at the weekend, 16, 17 and 18-year-old beneficiaries would receive a payment card for food and clothes from approved stores"

     https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bennett-beneficiary-cards-no-backtrack/YGAEOLWCAQVDBNEDXYVLTUTPCU/
   • Craig H 7.5

     3 November 2022 at 5:19 pm

     Job search obligations are currently required by the Social Security Act for those on the Jobseeker Support benefit other than beneficiaries with those obligations deferred for health reasons (formerly the sickness benefit). Failing the obligations will eventually lead to benefit sanctions up to and including cessation of benefit, so I don't know what he's on about.

     https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/on-a-benefit/obligations/obligations-for-getting-jobseeker-support.html has the obligations, one of which is finding or preparing for work.

     https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/on-a-benefit/obligations/not-meeting-your-obligations.html has the consequences of failing those obligations and includes losing the benefit.

     That's all as assessed by case managers, so it's not automatic that failing to look for work for a couple of weeks will immediately result in total loss of benefit, but the stick is there eventually.
8. Sacha 8

   3 November 2022 at 1:37 pm

   How it's done (2m clip when you click on the tweet)

   https://twitter.com/PeterMcDade/status/1587917131907219459
   • Ad 8.1

     3 November 2022 at 2:36 pm

     Inspiring!
     • Sacha 8.1.1

       3 November 2022 at 2:39 pm

       Consistently too.
9. Ad 9

   3 November 2022 at 3:38 pm

   Hasn't had his first Council meeting and already Wayne Brown's promises are coming undone.

   Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown backs off election promise to get $400 million from Ports of Auckland – NZ Herald
10. Chris 10

    3 November 2022 at 4:12 pm

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/130362166/taranaki-man-threw-concrete-pavers-at-police-as-officers-ended-parliament-protest

    What about the cops who were throwing the pavers at protesters?
    • Obtrectator 10.1

      3 November 2022 at 5:48 pm

      Link, please.
      • Chris 10.1.1

        4 November 2022 at 10:21 am

        It was shown on tv news clips at the time of the protest.
        • Chris 10.1.1.1

          4 November 2022 at 11:25 am

          It was funny seeing it at the time. There were a handful of cops who started hurling the pavers protesters had thrown at them, back at the protesters. It only happened a few times until, it seems, someone must've said "hey, we're cops, we can't be seen to be throwing these pavers back at the protesters!", then they stopped and started stacking the pavers up behind them. Quite apart from the fact they're cops, throwing the pavers back at the protesters was pretty dumb because they were just giving them back to the protesters to be thrown at the cops again. Upon reflection, it's probably more likely this was the reason they stopped, rather than the fact they're cops throwing pavers, which probably wouldn't have dawned on them.
    • Peter 10.2

      4 November 2022 at 7:18 am

      The cops who did that did it because specific radiation was being emitted and microchips deliberately put in their equipment was activated.

      They had no control, they just acted. There you go, explained perfectly, logically.
      • Chris 10.2.1

        4 November 2022 at 10:28 am

        Yes, I think you're right, although for some it'd simply come down to their inability to contain what for them comes naturally. Certainly an indication of the calibre of some of the cops we have these days.

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