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Open Mike 03/08/2017

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 3rd, 2017 - 166 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

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166 comments on “Open Mike 03/08/2017 ”

  1. AsleepWhileWalking 1

    I feel like I should be in continuous prayer for Metiria Turei today during her interview with MSD today.

    • Cinny 1.1

      She is a brave woman, may today go smoothly for her.

    • popexplosion 1.2

      She went on to pass law, I think, and become a MP. Are you suggesting WINZ will find a reason to turn her success into a fail, criminalize the good account she has made. Obviously her actions will be private and she can goto a review of decision that will just accentuate the political story which was the point. That you cannot buy the political, economic, social life of a citizen for a paucity amount. Even CEOs paid millions have more freedom.

    • weka 1.3

      can anyone confirm that Turei is meeting WINZ today? I might put a post up about the benefit issues.

  2. Cinny 2

    Our first meet the candidates event has been advertised in the local paper for the end of the month, looking forward to it. Being held by the Grey Power, I hope the public are allowed to ask questions.

    • garibaldi 2.1

      That’s a tough one Cinny. I went to a greypower meeting and couldn’t believe the inanity of the raucous mob with their questions/diatribes. I hope your meeting has a competent chairman.

      • Cinny 2.1.1

        Dang Garibaldi 🙂 I’ll bring the popcorn.

      • greywarshark 2.1.2

        I see this as a problem with old people (I am not being ageist – one can criticise anyone provided it is done fairly and also I am in my 70’s).

        The old have a feeling of entitlement, also a concentration on themselves and their needs. And they often abdicate their responsibilities and behave like children, demanding, irritated, hence they can become very raucous when roused about politics and money

  3. AsleepWhileWalking 3

    Herald is really taking a turn for the worst if today’s stories are anything to go by.

    “They were found near Lake Tutira, between Napier and Wairoa, in a hunt sparked by contact with a psychic, but Mr Vining said a forensic psychiatrist verified yesterday that the remains were not human.”
    Well I guess some people find that reassuring.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11898178

    The story below on missing woman Wei Qiujie features a picture of some random guy on a piano and this is followed by a picture of Leonardo DiCaprio.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11898258

  4. RedLogix 4

    In depth interview with Gareth Morgan. Rather long, but stick the wireless headphones on and give the kitchen a spring clean 🙂

  5. RedLogix 5

    This was my instinct years back, and now it’s being formally supported:

    Extreme heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike parts of the Indian subcontinent unless global carbon emissions are cut sharply and soon, according to new research.

    Even outside of these hotspots, three-quarters of the 1.7bn population – particularly those farming in the Ganges and Indus valleys – will be exposed to a level of humid heat classed as posing “extreme danger” towards the end of the century.

    The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once this reaches 35C, the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade will die within six hours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/02/climate-change-to-cause-humid-heatwaves-that-will-kill-even-healthy-people

    This may well be the first impact of climate change that will hit hard.

    • Good article – I wish the people in those areas the best of luck. I also worry about storm asthma and things like that. Too often the west thinks it is somehow insulated from all this – major part of the problem imo.

    • Andre 5.2

      It’s 1.7 bn living there now, but those areas currently have high population growth. There’s areas of Africa that will likely get the same kind of lethal heatwaves, but aren’t mentioned presumably because there aren’t the big numbers of people living there now. But those areas of Africa have very high population growth. So by the time the lethal heatwaves start hitting, the numbers at risk are likely to be around 2.5bn to 3bn.

    • Sabine 5.3

      i was in France during the heatwave of 2003. It killed an about 14000 people that summer, mainly elderlies.

      We literally lived at night and stayed indoors during the day. Madness really. Luckily i lived in the South of France in St. Paul de Vence a very old place with houses old several hundred years so the walls are build of solid river rocks. Which kept the houses around a balmy 30 degrees during the day. Utter madness. Elsewhere especially in the North it must have been horrendous.

      And no, Air conditioning is not common in europe.

      • Psych nurse 5.3.1

        I was there as well, elderly died +++ in Paris because everyone took their summer holidays leaving Grand ma alone at home.

        • Sabine 5.3.1.1

          thats a bit rough.

          It is standard for families in Paris or in the North to holiday on the country side in August, it is the summer holiday there.
          What was not expected was the heatwave, and the fact that houses in the North are not equipped to deal with such a heat wave.
          Also, a lot of old people do like to live on their own very happily.
          In fact, when i first came to NZ i was living in Wellington, and one day i asked my then spouse ‘where are all the old people’ and i was told they live in Oamaru (hahaha) or in retirment homes on the country side. which to this european whose Nana died at home, whose Mother died at home seemed cruel. what you mean they don’t live at home? what do they do in Oamaru? lol.

          Different Culture really, but no Grandma was not abandoned by their families.

    • Bill 5.4

      A friends sister has just gone to Spain. Apparently (this is only what I was told) Spanish people now take a break from the Spanish summer and head off to more northern climes. If true, do I need to explain how odd that is in terms of European summer holiday destinations?

      (I know southern France, Portugal and Spain have been on fire this year, but the impression I was given was that going north was not a ‘one off’ flowing from the back of just this years summer)

      • greywarshark 5.4.1

        We’ll be seeing more of the ‘friendly’ Australians then, who will have to take us over wholly or suck up to us a bit more so they can get away from their central heartless desert which will be spreading.

        I wonder if Aborigines will be able to manage as they will have lost much of their original culture though enough may still remain. But they may have to defend their territories against new colonial civil invasions so they aren’t over-run again and get ‘white-anted’.

      • greywarshark 5.4.2

        Will we be like Mars in the end? With a few people living underground and coming out at night and in winter? I guess I will hold onto my board games and packs of cards for light relief – but without electricity? I think th SADD syndrome might hit.

      • Sabine 5.4.3

        the fire season in the south of france is bad this year. Very very bad.
        and not getting better anytime.
        i expect more then just damage to houses soon as the area is densely populated.

  6. Stephen Doyle 6

    Is there a possible scenario where, if Labour get into the low 30s, Greens mid teens, and the Maori Party a couple of seats, that Winston can be cut out altogether?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1

      That would be nice 🙂

      • Union city greens 6.1.1

        Nicer if the greens stay mid teens (or higher), labour get mid thirties, so there’s no need to have a three term nat propping party in coalition being kept on life support by the people they’ve been voting against for nine years.

    • RedLogix 6.2

      You would have to see National and NZ1 come in under 50% combined. On the last few polls that looks unlikely.

    • weka 6.3

      Yes but you have to factor in the overhang with the Mp I think.

      Governing without NZF is a worthwhile thing to aim for.

      • RedLogix 6.3.1

        We do agree on that !!

        • weka 6.3.1.1

          Cool!

          I think we have a really opportunity here. Little said a few days before his resignation that Labour needed to go for NZF votes. Hope Ardern takes the same view (and then backs it up with policy).

          • RedLogix 6.3.1.1.1

            And as I indicated a while back, if TOP can get over the line as well then a Lab/Grn/TOP/MP coalition is also a real possibility. There’s a lot of policy synergy in that grouping.

            • weka 6.3.1.1.1.1

              Morgan doesn’t play well with others IMO. He’s got a good heart but he’s really bad at listening.

              And as always, the risk of the sub 5% vote loss for the left.

              • RedLogix

                But the point is that TOP will attract votes from across the spectrum. By no means all of that ‘sub 5%’ risk sits with the left.

                There are at least four ways TOP can benefit the left if we are smart.

                1. They will get a solid share of existing conservative votes. Their economic agenda is framed in terms they see sense in.

                2. Gareth absolutely makes his core pitch at youth voters. Much of the intergenerational unfairness, education, UBI, cannabis and environment policies are pitched directly to their interests

                3. Their ToW, Democracy Reset and Water policies have very close synergy with Maori interests. The MP should be paying close attention.

                4. And being new and ‘non-tribal’ they stand a fair shot at getting previously unmotivated non-voters to give them a go.

                • weka

                  I haven’t seen any polling that tells us where the TOP vote might come from, but going by some lefties’ arguments, the idea is that TOP are more likely to support Labour than National given a choice. It’s the same old shit that Peters does, no-one actually knows. It’s power play 101. People can vote for whoever they like, but it’s still a risk to vote TOP.

                  As for policy I don’t see anything particularly great that the Greens aren’t already moving on.

                • Sacha

                  I’d rather see young progressive voters get rewarded by representation in parliament than by a wasted sub-5% vote for TOP, thanks.

                  • RedLogix

                    Well they’ve gone from 0.8% to 2% in the past two weeks. The next few polls might be interesting.

                    But yes getting over 5% the first time out the gate is a tough ask.

                    It’s almost impossible unless you have wealthy backer and a good reason to argue the threshold needs to be a little lower. Because at 5% it’s just a guaranteed cosy sinecure for the Establishment parties when everyone applies the ‘wasted vote’ logic to any new party.

                    • Sacha

                      When an election looks this tight, even 2% wasted vote can swing it. I’d love our threshold to be way lower, but I’m sure we all recall the Nats were having none of that when it was recommended.

      • Stephen Doyle 6.3.2

        That’s what I was getting at. Just not sure how the overhang will affect the final seat count.

      • alwyn 6.3.3

        “overhang with the Mp “.
        What overhang are you expecting? You don’t think the MP are going to win 3 or 4 electorates do you?
        If they do the Labour Party are going to need a new deputy leader I would say.

        • weka 6.3.3.1

          Davis is on the list

          • alwyn 6.3.3.1.1

            “Davis is on the list”
            I have just seen that. No wonder he was looking so happy when he was announced as deputy. With the Labour polling numbers he must have been getting very worried. Labour are still going to have to get up a bit even if he is the effective number 1 on the list.
            Meanwhile though how many electorates do you expect the Maori Party to get? The look as if they will be entitled to a couple so if there are going to be any overhang seats they are going to have to win 3 or 4 electorates. What do you think they will be, and which Labour MPs are going to be left out in the cold?

  7. savenz 7

    Very good book.
    Ruth, Roger and Me
    Debts and Legacies
    “In Ruth, Roger and Me, Andrew Dean explores the lives of the generation of young people brought up in the shadow of the economic reforms of the 1980s and 1990s, those whom he calls ‘the children of the Mother of All Budgets’. Drawing together memoir, history and interviews, he explores the experiences of ‘discomfort’ and ‘disconnection’ in modern Aotearoa New Zealand.”

    http://bwb.co.nz/books/ruth-roger-and-me

    • greywarshark 7.1

      Bridget Williams? publication. Some good stuff coming from them.

    • Mrs Brillo 7.2

      Andrew Dean’s book gives one a lot to chew over, and is well backed by facts. I endorse savenz’s recommendation.

  8. Rosemary McDonald 8

    This is our brighter future….

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon

    Bupa rest home in Cambridge failed to provide proper care to Robert Love’s mum, even though he was topping up the government subsidy. Complaints met with the usual corporate speak fob off we have all encountered.

    And although she was no longer in charge when the complaints were made…the immediate former Big Boss of Bupa NZ (and hence she must take responsibility for much of the current culture) is none other than Grainne Moss who now has charge of creating a better and safer culture within the Ministry for Vulnerable Children.

    Heaven help the children.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/82559158/former-private-sector-agedcare-boss-grainne-moss-to-head-new-state-carer

    Any opposition politician keen to make some noise about this?

    • greywarshark 8.1

      I thought bet this is an immigrant come to take our jobs.
      Right. This is a perverse cultural cringe we have. And to keep on voting for a political party like National Party to keep this up and dumbing down NZ is such a cringe that it becomes grotesque. Where are the gutsy NZs who want to run our own country and see our own people rise and use their abilities. Why keep importing everything. Quelle horreur. Merde etc. We are already international and can do as well as internationals given a chance, education, encouragement and opportunity.

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11492534
      Irish-born champion swimmer Grainne Moss is one of a small number of female chief executives in New Zealand. The mother of four runs Bupa, the country’s largest aged-care home provider.
      1. You were the first Irish woman to swim the English Channel, when you were 17. What lessons have you taken from that into the business world?

      Don’t look back. I made that mistake during the channel crossing. The conditions were so rough that my father and brother had to get tied to the boat for their own safety and they’d emptied their entire stomachs. I’d been swimming for three hours and I looked back at the White Cliffs of Dover, which were absolutely massive. It was a devastating moment because I thought, “I’ve got nowhere”. Looking back has got very limited value.

      (And another fact that may prove to be be interesting is that she is a practising Catholic. And my own feeling that champion sports people are very individualistic, and can be very system-focussed for outcomes, rather than human-focussed with tolerance.)

      http://www.ssc.govt.nz/media-release-ministry-vulnerable-children-oranga-tamariki-chief-executive-appointed
      Gráinne holds a BSc (Hons) in Human Anatomy and Biology from the University of Liverpool and spent the early years of her career in the UK National Health Service prior to emigrating to New Zealand at the end of the 90s.

      (She also went to a ‘finishing school’ in Switzerland. Mrs Moss holds a Masters of Business Administration (with honours) from the prestigious IMD Business School in Lausanne, Switzerland.)

      Now – State Services Commissioner Peter Hughes has today announced the appointment of Gráinne Moss as establishment Chief Executive of the new Ministry for Vulnerable Children, Oranga Tamariki….

      “Too many of our children and young people are being abused and neglected,” said Mr Hughes.

      A NZHerald item on other imported executives.

      • Rosemary McDonald 8.1.1

        “(She also went to a ‘finishing school’ in Switzerland. Mrs Moss holds a Masters of Business Administration (with honours) from the prestigious IMD Business School in Lausanne, Switzerland.)”

        Incubator for neo-libs?

        I sometimes despair, greywarshark, despair.

        Good luck to Robert Love…attempting to hit them in their bank balance is probably the only way of hurting them.

        (I never used to think that way…but one must keep up with the times and accept that the $$$ is All.)

        • greywarshark 8.1.1.1

          Rosemay
          Hadn’t seen your name recently, might have missed it.. Hope you are well and got through the winter (most) in good order.

          • Rosemary McDonald 8.1.1.1.1

            Been on the road in the Far North…. no wifi, no telly, often no cellphone coverage. Living the simplest of lives in a Bus. Bliss. 🙂

            Getting most of the news and commentary from RNZ….hence the despair.

            I hate elections.

            How do we choose when choosing often demands we compromise more than we are comfortable with?

            I promised I would vote this year….it’s going to be a struggle.

            We will be back in the Far North during the election, so at least we’ll be ringside for the Kelvin/Hone showdown…should be fun.

            Trust winter has been kind to you too grey…

  9. Māori Party are scared – labour reciprocity coming.

    Opp party – take our policies and we’ll go away – yeah nah you’ll go away soon enough.

    Hone may be the only one with enough cutthrough to get over the line but not sure what the point is anymore on that one.

    Gnats crapping themselves – justifably so.

    And it’s only Thursday – what next?

    • weka 9.1

      Ardern back tomorrow with a plan for Labour. Greens this week had a standing room only campaign launch in Auckland where they said they’re going for bold.

      Potential.

    • srylands 9.2

      Why are you hostile to The Opportunities Party? They have excellent policies. Their chief of staff and Wellington Central candidate is brilliant. I hope he is the next Minister for the Environment.

      • weka 9.2.1

        A RW endorsing TOP is a pretty good sign that something is wrong with TOP.

        • weka 9.2.1.1

          e.g. https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-03082017/#comment-1361900

          You should definitely vote TOP though.

        • RedLogix 9.2.1.2

          That kind of tribal thinking really just keeps the left under the 40% mark. Truly successful government looks to serve the whole nation.

          Here we have both a RW and a LW endorsing TOP at the same time … I would say that’s a pretty good sign something is good about TOP.

          • weka 9.2.1.2.1

            Sounds good until you read drylands other comments.

            “Here we have both a RW and a LW endorsing TOP at the same time … I would say that’s a pretty good sign something is good about TOP.”

            Um, Peter Dunne.

            • RedLogix 9.2.1.2.1.1

              Not sure if a comparison of UF’s utter lack of meaningful policy with TOP’s very clear and distinct positions stacks up much.

              And quite explicitly Morgan has come out and repudiated the electorate seat ‘coat-tailing’ which has kept the UF and ACT zombies in govt long after the electorate walked away.

              Gaming the voting process is the epitome of tribal, partisan politics which delivers us mediocre Establishment party governments that represent sector constituencies only and increasingly have been failing to work in the interests of all voters. Mr English calls this “stable” government, I call it stagnant, mediocre and unenlightened. It’s precisely this type of behaviour from Establishment parties that is alienating so many voters from the democratic process and to be frank, putting our democracy at risk.

              http://www.top.org.nz/abusing_democracy

              • weka

                “Not sure if a comparison of UF’s utter lack of meaningful policy with TOP’s very clear and distinct positions stacks up much.”

                I wasn’t comparing policy, I was critiquing the rationale that having both left and right wing endorsements means something.

                • RedLogix

                  It means that your claim that TOP cannot work with a broad range of political perspectives may be a bit tribal on your part.

          • McFlock 9.2.1.2.2

            Nah. People across the spectrum agreeing with a single party either means its policy platform is too narrow or that the actual implementation of those policies hasn’t been signalled.

            And when one of those supporters is so far right that they don’t believe there are any right wing people in NZ, that rings some pretty huge alarm bells.

            • RedLogix 9.2.1.2.2.1

              Bullshit. When the Greens criticise TOP’s environmental and climate change policy as ‘too extreme’, while at the same time a right-winger can see the sense of their tax reform policy … you’re outta the park labelling this ‘narrow’.

              And if you’re worried about their implementation, go do your own homework. TOP has a big website and you should be able to find it on your own. Lazy insinuations are just that … lazy and self-serving.

              And while you’re at it, if you think it so important, ask srylands why he’s interested in TOP’s policies.

              • McFlock

                I said “either”.

                And yes, their implementation is pretty bloody vague. I’ve read a few of their policies, and there’s a shitload of fluff, some managerialist bullshit (like shared services for school administration) and bugger-all substance. Their tax policy doesn’t even have any even illustrative tax rates or firm claims for one or two affected groups like the greens do, and they don’t have a fiscal plan like Labour.

                And I don’t give a shit about why srylands is interested in anything. The only relevant point is that with someone like him agreeing with something, it pays to double-check how it would fuck things up for most people. It is not “a good sign”, any more than an endorsement from the KKK.

                • RedLogix

                  Make up your mind, if you don’t give a shit about sryland’s opinions, why the hell do they “ring pretty huge alarm bells” for you?

                  • He did explain that fairly clearly:

                    The only relevant point is that with someone like him agreeing with something, it pays to double-check how it would fuck things up for most people.

                    • RedLogix

                      So you give a shit about sryland’s opinion when it suits your argument , and don’t give a shit when it doesn’t.

                      Fair enough. Or if it’s that important maybe you could just ask the man to explain a bit more. The we might all learn something.

                    • So you give a shit about sryland’s opinion when it suits your argument , and don’t give a shit when it doesn’t.

                      That’s not what he said. It’s that srylands stated beliefs indicate that him agreeing with something would indicate that that something is probably badly wrong.

                    • McFlock

                      The party is well financed and employs experienced media folk for their communications.

                      Why the hell should anyone have to ask them to provide policy specifics rather than waffle?

                      They want teachers to be repested and better qualified. Fair enough. What about pay, numbers and conditions? The greens at least mention those in their policy, and lots more. TOP manage to announce a small fraction of the number of policies across the same sector, but in the same number of pages as the Greens.

                    • RedLogix

                      @ DtB

                      So now suddenly srylands beliefs are going to be the yardstick by which you determine what you believe in?

                      Wow … that’s a lot of power you’re giving to the man. All this and you still haven’t asked him why?

                      Oh I forgot .. you don’t give a shit about that.

                    • McFlock

                      So now suddenly srylands beliefs are going to be the yardstick by which you determine what you believe in?

                      No. That’s not what either of us said.

                      You started this line with the sentence: “Here we have both a RW and a LW endorsing TOP at the same time … I would say that’s a pretty good sign something is good about TOP.”

                      All I’ve said is that no, srylands agreeing with something is a bad sign. It doesn’t determine my beliefs. It raises my suspicions.

                      TOP’s lack of details also raises my suspicions.

                      You have presented nothing to allay those suspicions. Like maybe a fiscal plan that has more figures than “80:20”.

                    • So now suddenly srylands beliefs are going to be the yardstick by which you determine what you believe in?

                      Nope.

                      It means that I’m going to take what he says as bollocks until proven otherwise as you would do with any proven liar.

                      All this and you still haven’t asked him why?

                      Have you considered what I said about Morgan being a traditional economist with all the inherent failings in regards to what srylands often says? They’re birds of a feather although Morgan does seem to have a higher social conscience.

                  • McFlock

                    If I was wrong about TOP being vague on implementation of their finance policy (rich for an economist), feel free to point out their specifics rather than misrepresenting what I said about some tory trool.

                    I said that I don’t give a shit why srylands would profess to have an opinion on TOP. But the opinions srylands has are usually pretty fucked up, and therefore best avoided.

                    Similar to real alarm bells – I might not know why the fire alarm is going off, but the area is usually best avoided for the duration that they’re going off.

                    • weka

                      I find TOP’s policies surprisingly vague too. How hard would it have been to include examples? And asking them to clarify is so fraught that I think that alone makes them untrustworthy to govern.

              • weka

                “When the Greens criticise TOP’s environmental and climate change policy as ‘too extreme’, ”

                Where have they done that?

                • In Vino

                  Personally, I don’t see Gareth Morgan as a Messiah. I see him as a naughty boy who knows damned well that he screwed both an unfair system and many people in order to become rich. But he puts that down to talent, and now he tries to atone with fairy-tale solutions.

                  • weka

                    There’s also some pretty interesting class stuff flowing through his progress. He’s not an ally of poor people.

                    • Union city greens

                      “He’s not an ally of poor people.”

                      Or the left, like the people intending to vote Top aren’t.
                      Why would you chose a rich prick over the greens or Jacinda’s labour?

                    • weka

                      I’ve wondered that myself.

                    • Union city greens

                      It’s a question needing to be convincingly answered. Not seen shit worth considering yet, even from the now usual subject.

        • Muttonbird 9.2.1.3

          Srylands has lost it, is obfuscating, or is a complete fool. Probably all three.

          Yesterday he said there was no need for a reset economically, then promptly proposed deliberately crashing the housing market and paying the banks for their loss.

          • weka 9.2.1.3.1

            I’m guessing he’s doing some astroturfing/trolling. I haven’t looked too closely (don’t read their comments a lot tbh), but it all looks like ways to undermine the left. Yawn 😉

            • RedLogix 9.2.1.3.1.1

              I’ve no problem with disagreeing with RW opponents ideas most of the time. But unless they are trolling or arguing in bad faith, I usually attempt to treat them with the ordinary respect we all owe to our fellow humans.

              If there is one thing which REALLY irks me is watching a bunch of so-called lefties mobbing someone in an ugly display of mindless gang bullying. It happens far too often and I loath it with a passion. It’s the one thing which repeatedly drives me to question my ongoing participation here.

              For a start it’s a matter of simple dignity and decency. Then there’s the ugly, smug assertions of moral superiority, the unquestioned assumptions and the short-circuiting of intellectual curiosity.

              Conservative thinking people comprise at least 40% of our fellow citizens; sneering at them, actively refusing to listen, engaging in bad faith will assuredly reinforce their prejudices about progressive politics.

              And most fatally of all … it leads us to persistently underestimate them.

    • The Lone Haranguer 9.3

      And its only Thursday – what next?

      Excitement all round.

      I imagine that theres more than a few folk in the various parties trying to figure out what this all mean to them – both positive and negative.

      Meanwhile, theres also a bunch of journos trying to second guess the NZ voters and what this will mean come 24 September. They are writing articles which in many cases (tho we dont know which ones yet) will be 100% wrong.

      My prediction is that we wont end up with a “threeway coalition of equals” as I think that Labour are on the up, and that it will be at the expense particularly of the Greens as they will both be strong and chasing voters in the same “urban liberal” part of voterland.

      And I have absolutely no idea what will now happen in the Maori seats, but I wouldnt be at all surprised to see the end of the Maori Party in Parliament.

      But I too may be 100% wrong too.

      Excitement all round.

      • marty mars 9.3.1

        Yes and then there is winnie and that stuff from down south. I’m sure i predicted Paula going in as leader to the election – might happen. But possibly only for a short time as her chickens come home to roost soon.

    • Stephen Doyle 9.4

      If Hone gets over the line, and brings a couple of others with him, there may be a chance of a deal excluding Winston?

      • Andre 9.4.1

        Kelvin’s promotion to deputy and his declining to be on Labour’s list might make it tougher for Hone. That’s a bit of an offset to the Mana-Maori deal to not run a Maori party candidate in TTT.

        • Stephen Doyle 9.4.1.1

          Saw somewhere that it’s Labour Party policy that as he is now deputy leader, he has to be on the list.

        • Craig H 9.4.1.2

          Kelvin will added to the list in line with the Labour constitution – heard him confirm it yesterday on the radio.

          • Stephen Doyle 9.4.1.2.1

            Does that give Hone an easier ride in TTT? And subsequent Maori Party seats.

            • weka 9.4.1.2.1.1

              It would be really wise for Labour to consider mending some bridges with Mana and the Mp at this point.

              • Andre

                Anyone recall what Ardern had to say about Davis running hard against Harawira in 2014? Since Davis is now going on the list, I’ve certainly got hopes for a bit more electoral pragmatism from Labour in TTT this time around.

                • weka

                  “Anyone recall what Ardern had to say about Davis running hard against Harawira in 2014?”

                  Do you mean at the time?

                  I thought the Mp announcement the other day where they basically said the antagonism came from Little was interesting. I find Labour so confusing, lol, like how do they even make decisions?

                  • Andre

                    I guess both at the time and the immediate aftermath when it became clear that if Hone had won TTT he would have coat-tailed Laila Harre in as well.

                    The relevance being that if she had been arguing for electoral pragmatism back then, she’s got a much better platform to argue for it now.

                    • weka

                      It would be really interesting to know. But would she have said anything publicly? She wasn’t in much position of power then right?

                  • Karen

                    If you follow Māori politics (as I do) you would know that most of the antagonism has come from the Māori Party since Tuku Morgan became president. There has been some really nasty stuff, including from media darling Marama Fox. They have demonised Andrew Little at every opportunity and have also told a lot of lies about him – and Tuku Morgan has led the charge.

                    When they voted for the sell off of state houses they lost me forever. Hone Harawira lost my support when he decided Singapore was a good model for drug policy and that Chinese drug dealers deserved the death penalty.

                    The Māori Party are desperate as they know they face oblivion if (as is possible) Te Ururoa Flavell loses his seat.

                    • weka

                      Fair points, and Tuku Morgan is one of the people I least trust in politics. It’s up to Māori I guess, so if they vote Mp back in, then I’d like to see co-operation between Labour and the Mp, so am interested in the shifting dynamic and Labour also appear now to be keeping the door open (which is a change from Little).

                    • Molly

                      “Hone Harawira lost my support when he decided Singapore was a good model for drug policy and that Chinese drug dealers deserved the death penalty.”
                      I missed the interview, but read the transcript of that and it seemed to me that he was referring to sending any offenders back to China – where – of course, if convicted they would face a death penalty.

                      Small distinction, but different to advocating for a death penalty as such. (He does have a seriously unflinching attitude to drugs in all forms though, which is most likely a result of the effects on his local community up North.)

                • Karen

                  Davis went hard in 2014 as otherwise he wouldn’t have got into parliament.

                  There is no tactical advantage in letting Hone Harawira win in 2017.

                  • weka

                    Not for Labour, but there was for the left, which in turn would have helped Labour now if they wanted to shift NZ leftwards.

                    Mana fucked it up, the whole KDC thing, and I’m with you on the racist drug dealer thing. I used to think parliament would be better with him in it, but he’s blown his chances. I guess if he gets in this time we’ll see.

        • Stuart Munro 9.4.1.3

          Labour are for some reason very Hone averse. They’d probably find the Fox/Flavel flexibility easier to accommodate.

      • mlpc 9.4.2

        To get a new gov’t coalition that excluded NZF, you’d probably need to count on National getting less than 40%.
        How likely is that?

        • Craig H 9.4.2.1

          Some of the polls have had them down at 42%, so it’s not out of the question.

  10. srylands 10

    Excellent. I see that The Opportunities Party has offered to share its policy ideas with Jacinda. Gareth makes exactly the same point that I posted here yesterday. There is simply not enough time to develop the required policies without a lot of help.

    I suggest that the offer of Gareth and Geoff be taken up. Today.

    http://www.top.org.nz/the_opportunities_party_offers_policy_help_to_jacinda_adern_and_labour

    • RedLogix 10.1

      I imagine a lot of older lefties still remember what happened last time someone with a strong economic agenda got their hands on the levers of power. Douglas’ toxic legacy still lingers in many nostrils.

      Still Morgan is an entirely different critter to Douglas; his social agenda is distinctly left wing, and TOP’s environmental policy criticised by the Greens as ‘too radical’. Nor does he have any ambitions to hang around long enough to become a Minister of anything.

      • srylands 10.1.1

        I think Sir Roger Douglas is the greatest living New Zealander. I also think that most of TOP policies are exactly what New Zealand needs. They are not inconsistent views.

        We need a comprehensive capital tax, urban planning reform and an end to poverty traps. I don’t know what Roger Doug thinks of TOP policies.

        Also note that TOP rejects the ridiculous antiquated notion that policies and people are “left” or “right”. It is just embarrassing. There are only good policies and bad ones.

        • RedLogix 10.1.1.1

          Douglas admitted years later that they got the order of things wrong. They believed if they imposed radical neo-liberal economic shock therapy on the economy they could tidy up the social mess later.

          • Draco T Bastard 10.1.1.1.1

            They believed if they imposed radical neo-liberal economic shock therapy on the economy they could tidy up the social mess later.

            The problem being that it’s capitalism, of any stripe, that’s causing the economic and social problems. You can’t solve either of them by having more of it.

          • Sacha 10.1.1.1.2

            “Douglas admitted years later that they got the order of things wrong.”

            Where? I’ve never seen the slightest repentance. He was faithfully following the neolib blitzkreig template.

        • Stuart Munro 10.1.1.2

          Douglas was a Trojan horse – elected to be left but actually ultra-right. Should have been attainted for treason long ago.

        • DoublePlusGood 10.1.1.3

          I think he is the worst New Zealander, and should be deknighted and thrown in prison for the rest of his days.
          His economic vandalism is at the root of everything that has gone wrong for New Zealand since the 1980s.

        • mikesh 10.1.1.4

          Roger Douglas was OK. The policies he implemented were Blairite “third way” policies, which were considered Orthodox at the time. The Labour Party’s “sin” was not to disown them when they turned out badly, and change tack.

          • Draco T Bastard 10.1.1.4.1

            No, the Third Way was recognition that the move to radical capitalism under Douglas/Reagan/Thatcher was bad and causing problems and that we needed to move slightly back to Keynesianism while still continuing to prop up radical ‘free-market’ capitalism.

            It failed badly.

          • greywarshark 10.1.1.4.2

            Roger Douglas adopted the new economics in the most extreme way and at the fastest pace of any country in the world. He was drunk with his own cleverness along with his ratpack, and no doubt got accolades from overseas which our wealthy men are always striving for. Treasury prepared the papers lauding neo liberalism. How many are there to be held to account for this treason of economic vandalism? We should have a list.

            • RedLogix 10.1.1.4.2.1

              Exactly. Douglas was in many ways a creature of his time, and in some ways I can see why he pursued this shiny new economic idea with such zeal. And absolutely you are on the money gw; NZ was the most extreme outlier of this very unfortunate experiment.

              In reality Douglas had very little public policy experience and his family background in the unions, the drama of Muldoon’s exit and Lange’s charisma, effectively camouflaged his intentions from the voting public.

              None of his agenda was put to scrutiny or debate before it was hurriedly imposed on us. There was no research, no planning, no recognition of the need to lay the ground, or put in place transitional arrangements. Just a mono-maniacal belief that the magical market would sort out the mess.

              Unfortunately the political trauma of this folly has adhered to the NZ left’s subconscious for generations since. We abandoned the economic argument, retreated into worthy, valuable ‘identity’ issues and refused to challenge the now established orthodoxy. The Fifth Labour govt marked a low point in this respect.

              For example one bad experience with a medical doctor should not prevent you from every seeing a medic ever again … a reasonable person learns from the experience and returns better informed, more aware. More than anything else the left in this country needs a solid economic agenda to work with, a credible alternative to a now stale, dysfunctional neo-lib orthodoxy.

              In my mind TOP is putting up a researched, costed and transparent place to start that journey.

    • Assuming that Labour suddenly threw out all their policy because they changed leaders is rather stupid.

  11. Ad 11

    Sucking National’s oxygen 100% is hilarious.

    Profile shifts percentages in the last month.

  12. savenz 12

    Must read for anyone wondering what the future holds for National’s state housing sell offs.

    How the MoD’s plan to privatise military housing ended in disaster

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/apr/25/mod-privatise-military-housing-disaster-guy-hands

    • exkiwiforces 12.1

      Actually this current bunch clowns have been transferring defence housing as a part of the treaty settlements and then the local iwi leases back the former defence houses back the MOD at commercial rates so guess what happens when the lease runs out?

      • Molly 12.1.1

        Was living in the army housing in Papakura when the decision to sell was made.

        The houses were kept in great condition by the MoD, and the servicemen and women had families that were all in one community, and helped each other through deployments.

        Instead of offering those homes to the army tenants who lived there, they were sold off as one lot to a developer who then broke up the houses and offered them at a considerable markup.

        Many of the houses were bought as investments, and while some have been looked after, some have not.

        • exkiwiforces 12.1.1.1

          Yeah heard about what happen at Papakura and I believe it’s the same over at Hobbie as well for the RNZAF personal, but the one to watch is going to the old Navy Housing quarters in the North Shore as some of those houses are on prime land from what my cousin has said to me. (She’s in the Navy)

          So god only knows what’s going to happen there with the Navy personal? Unlike us here in Oz where we pay 50% of the rent in a Defence house and the Government pays the other 50%. The NZDF personal now pay 100% rent at the going commercial rate and its no longer subsidise by the government from what I’ve been told.

          • Molly 12.1.1.1.1

            Yes, I understand the same about the Hobsonville project, and the Navy Housing on the Shore will be worth a lot in this market. Any sale will help prop up the budget.

            The Papakura sell-off was even more interesting as they had just spent millions doing up the SAS unit there, and almost immediately decided to close it down and relocate.

            IIRC, the SAS now has a presence back in the old Papakura Military Grounds, but that required further capital investment to reinstate.

            The gains seem to be only in the books and from only one perspective.

      • savenz 12.1.2

        Maybe Michael Portillo was advising?

        Seriously couldn’t the government have at least got a discount – also why don’t iwi use the houses to house iwi – and at least if they do that they are easing the housing problem for Maori?

        If they sell them off, especially to an overseas buyer then NZ don’t even get the taxes – like in the UK – massive profits from the houses went offshore to a tax haven and they posted local tax losses.

        • exkiwiforces 12.1.2.1

          From what I understand that those defence houses that were part of any treaty settlement with the local iwi’s were to lease back to defence for 10yrs. Now the problem going be what happens after the 10yrs are up?
          1) Where are the defence families going to live if the houses are not lease back to defence?
          2) Most of the defence housing in the Auckland are in prime real estate areas for example the former Navy housing in the North Shore area.

          When RNZAF Base Wigram closed under National the former defence housing wasn’t use by the local iwi to house it own people, but resold or lease out on to rental market and its for the new housing development on the former airfield.

          As you said the local iwi should be looking after it own people, but appears they are not and like all property owners are after the dollars and bugger anyone else.

  13. xanthe 13

    https://t.co/V5fVfJm6VI

    in the end this is more important than policy, seriously if our government is not in charge then it matters not what policy you vote for.

    what is Labour’s stance on the GCSB ? anyone know?

  14. greywarshark 14

    I was thinking about people and how many are involved in abusive behaviour and suicides are growing.

    I thought of the Hawthorne effect which was name for a study of workers and how their behaviour changed when lighting and other things were being altered ostensibly to make their work easier.

    Perhaps this should be considered when working with parents having difficulties and be an attempt to aid them in their work bringing up their children and trying to find a little work so they can not be excluded from the workplace.

    [Care and attention effect –
    The original research at the Hawthorne Works in Cicero, Illinois, on lighting changes and work structure changes such as working hours and break times was originally interpreted by Elton Mayo and others to mean that paying attention to overall worker needs would improve productivity. Later interpretations such as that done by Landsberger suggested that the novelty of being research subjects and the increased attention from such could lead to temporary increases in workers’ productivity. This interpretation was dubbed “the Hawthorne effect”…

    Although illumination research of workplace lighting formed the basis of the Hawthorne effect, other changes such as maintaining clean work stations, clearing floors of obstacles, and even relocating workstations resulted in increased productivity for short periods. Thus the term is used to identify any type of short-lived increase in productivity.[4][7][8]

    (I would think that the boring aspects of work would result in a fall-back in effect, and that having some enlivening thing happen every few days would stop the fall.
    So if this was transferred to taking an interest in people in a listen to and carry forward the parent’s own wishes and needs where it would most enable their parenting and in-training role.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect

  15. swordfish 15

    Sweden – Eg of Second Largest Party on 26% forming Coalition Govt

    2006 General Election

    Centre-Left Bloc

    Social Democrats 35%(Largest Party)

    Left Party 6% (Sixth)

    Green 5% (Seventh)

    Centre-Right Bloc

    Moderate 26% (Second Largest Party)

    Centre 8% (Third)

    Liberal People’s Party 8% (Fourth)

    Christian Democrats 7% (Fifth)

    Moderates form Centre-Right Coalition Govt

  16. joe90 16

    No matter what ails ya, the stupidity of bigots is a marvelous tonic.

    An overly zealous group of Norwegian nationalists is facing online ridicule after mistaking a photo of seats on a city bus for women wearing burqas.

    Screenshots from the Norwegian Facebook group Fedrelandet Viktigst, which translates to “The Fatherland, Most Importantly,” show members of the group expressing xenophobic fears in response to the photo. The image depicts several darkly-coloured seats on a city bus, lit in such a way that some might mistake it for rows of women in burqas.

    The Facebook group is labelled as meant for “anyone who loves Norway, and appreciates what our ancestors have been fighting for!”

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ignorance-unveiled-anti-immigrant-group-mistakes-bus-seats-for-burqas-1.3529632

    • RedLogix 16.1

      The only time I’ve ever seen my partner visibly angry and shaking in public was the first time we encountered a burka in public in a Melbourne shopping mall.

      They are disgusting things.

      • Andre 16.1.1

        I gotta admit burqas induce a massive cognitive dissonance for me.

        On one hand they’re a massive symbol of institutionalised oppression of women.

        On the other hand, at least some burqa wearers genuinely freely choose to do so and would be genuinely uncomfortable about not wearing it in public. Whether that situation is the product of a messed-up oppressed upbringing is kind of a separate topic.

        So my disgust at what the burqa represents is at serious war with my libertarian instincts that people should be free to do what they want (up to the point that they interfere with other people doing what they want).

        But yeah, there’s nothing but delight in obnoxious morons mistaking bus seats for burqas and publicly making themselves idiots over it.

        • weka 16.1.1.1

          The way out of that dilemma for me is to support the feminists in those cultures. This ups the rights of women and enables self-determination.

        • Whispering Kate 16.1.1.2

          What fascinates me about burqa wearers is many that I have seen overseas especially at Dubai Airport are glamorous (from what you can see). Lots of jewellery on their fingers, red nail polish, one had sky high red strappy shoes on carrying very expensive bags from designer stores.

          The paradox of this fascinates me, I thought it was to keep women demure, pious, subdued and submissive. I wouldn’t mind betting they are hell on wheels in their own environment and its obvious their menfolk like them dressed in racy lingerie under all the voluminous robes.

          • Draco T Bastard 16.1.1.2.1

            The paradox of this fascinates me, I thought it was to keep women demure, pious, subdued and submissive.

            No, it’s to mark them as being owned by men and that other men are therefore not allowed to look/converse with without the express permission of the man.

            • Sabine 16.1.1.2.1.1

              https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-differences-between-a-niqab-a-chador-an-abaya-a-burkha-and-a-hijab

              i have met quite a few girls in France and Germany who would wear not the burka but the Abaya with a Hijab – a headscarf with long coat/dress when going out. Underneath these girls are as modern and flamboyant as any other girls/women elsewhere.

              the point about dressing in the headscarf and long coat outfit is simply to not ‘seduce’ men, but to portray an image of ‘modesty’.
              at home these women wear regular clothes.

              I sat in quite a few kitchens in Germany with turkish women/girls while the men sat in the living room. The ladies have no issues discussing boys/ men in no uncertain terms. Let me rest it at that. 🙂
              Good fun, good food and much tea was consumed.

              and while some be forced to wear this, many choose it on their own and make it fashion. and its not up to us to judge these choices.

              • RedLogix

                For me it is the oppressive, sexist and deeply damaging purdah culture these dress forms represent which I passionately object to. Yes they are a dress choice, but then so is a skinhead making a ‘dress choice’ if they wear a swastika in public. It’s the symbolism that matters here.

                What most westerners don’t realise is that originally these walking tents had almost nothing to do with Islam. Purdah culture thoroughly pre-dates Islam, and the first 500 years or so these dress forms were completely unknown and discredited. IIRC they only appeared in Islam around AD 1300 or so inside some extremist cult and spread from there.

                Purdah, or the strict social segregation of men and women, is an ancient practise that has no place in the modern world. It roughly falls into the same basket of horrors such as genital mutilation and foot binding.

                I do agree with weka on the point she makes above; but at the same time I will never feel under any obligation to tolerate or condone it.

  17. greywarshark 17

    I just saw that Auditor General Matthews is stepping down. (Might be old news now.) To do with Transport Agency and Joanne Harrison I suppose.

    Who is next at facing up to the unpleasant and unsavoury?

    • Yep, he is but he doesn’t seem to have realised the problem:

      “I deeply regret and apologise for the fraud that was committed,” he said in a written statement.

      “I wished it had never happened but I accept I am accountable for everything done in and by the Ministry when I was CEO and I am ultimately responsible.

      “I feel as angry and aggrieved as anyone about [Harrison’s] stealing and breaches of trust.”

      He was told that the fraud was being committed by several people and did nothing. He doesn’t seem to realise that this is a breach of trust by him to the employees and to the people of NZ.

  18. greywarshark 18

    New tax idea Labour and Greens – help the homeless and yourselves.

    http://norightturn.blogspot.co.nz/2017/08/dealing-with-ghost-homes.html

    • weka 18.1

      excellent, will put that up as a cross-post I think.

      • mac1 18.1.1

        Shades of the Land Tax of the Liberal Govt under Minister of Lands, James Mckenzie.

        As a result of that tax at least four of my ancestors got a farm from the breaking up of the big estates.

  19. Ad 19

    The Auditor General has resigned.

    This is the guy who stood by during the corruption, and during the time the corrupt official hunted down the whistleblowers, while he was Secretary of the Ministry of Transport:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95411616/auditorgeneral-resigns-saying-his-position-untenable

    Good fucking job.

    May it be a lesson to whomever runs the State Services Commission – and the Minister of State Services – in future. As well as to ever single head of a government agency.

    • Sabine 19.1

      is there not a tax loop hole here in NZ where a landlord of a residential or commercial property can write of the loss of an untenanted property against income?

      maybe just do away with that loophole.

      some of the rural townships could actually be quite lovely little hubs if the upstairs of the old fringes were to be residential again instead of ’empty commerical office space to lease’.

      • siobhan 19.1.1

        We >i>still have landlords of Commercial property, in the Hawkes Bay, putting up rents and forcing out long standing tenants…just for those shops to sit empty, or some brave soul starts up and closes down in the blink of an eye due to the stress of so called ‘market rents’.
        If your retail property is empty, or has a constant flow of ‘pop ups’, then its NOT market rent.
        And the question is, what are the artificial motivations that make property that is vacant or with high-tenant-turnover viable?.

        • Sabine 19.1.1.1

          i know live near a little rural town. lovely actually, but pretty much all the upstairs of the shops are ‘offices ‘ to rent and two thirds of the shops are for lease. . Like really? how many offices can a rural small town have? Put people in to live, create some live in these little towns. Offices! Bullshit.

          what ever tax clause it is that makes it more attractive to keep a property empty instead of renting it out needs to be closed, done away with. It is a clause that keeps people on the street homeless and out of earning a living. Stupid.

          • RedLogix 19.1.1.1.1

            Such a loophole would be news to me, but then I have little experience in commercial property.

            I suspect that what may happening is that in the commercial leasing the book value of the property is directly related to it’s imputed rental value. Often such a property will be tied up as bank collateral for some other project. If it’s then leased for residential for a lower rental than office space, the bank would be in it’s rights to revalue the property downwards.

            In this case the owner has every reason to leave a property empty rather than lease it at a reduced rent.

            Also in the commercial context, potential tenants are much fewer in number compared to residential, so it’s always anticipated that there can be quite long vacancies between tenancies.

            Of course none of this addresses the very real issue you raise.

            • Draco T Bastard 19.1.1.1.1.1

              If it’s then leased for residential for a lower rental than office space, the bank would be in it’s rights to revalue the property downwards.

              In this case the owner has every reason to leave a property empty rather than lease it at a reduced rent.

              Economics tells us that the value of a thing is how much it can garner upon the open market. It would seem to me that when it’s left empty then the value is zero and the bank should value it at that. If it’s used for commercial or residential should make no difference to the bank.

              What you’re describing would seem to be some sort of loophole.

              • RedLogix

                Not really. As I suggested in practise there are often quite large gaps in commercial tenancies, and valuing a property at zero for their unknowable duration is not reasonable.

                But the moment you do lease it, regardless of whether it’s commercial or residential, the income is now known and the value of the property becomes determinate again. And that is what the bank cares about.

                Besides once it is leased residential, it makes it a lot harder to subsequently place a more attractive commercial tenant.

                As I said I’m not an expert here; just pointing out some quite pragmatic reasons why commercial property can lie empty for long periods without any particular tax reason being involved.

    • OncewasTim 19.2

      Re last paragraph PLUS EFFING 100!
      Public Service reform of its senior management and corporatised structure is LONG overdue
      Politicised, unaccountable, crony-enabled, and generally dysfunctional.

  20. ianmac 20

    “Auditor-General Martin Matthews has resigned. Good riddance. Given his woeful performance as chief executive of the Ministry of Transport, where he appears to have repeatedly looked the other way on Joanne Harrison’s fraud, there really was no other option.”

    http://norightturn.blogspot.co.nz/2017/08/good-riddance.html

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11898467

    • Gabby 20.1

      But the peasants don’t need to know what was going on, so no publication of the report. Off you go Martin, here’s a little something to tide you over and Martin, keep your mouth shut.

  21. Siobhan 21

    “Foodstuffs run an operation of using a large amount of labour hire temporary workers. They’ve got hundreds of them, and they use them in permanent positions and exploit the precarious nature of their work.”
    First Union transport and logistics secretary Jared Abbott

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95401353/supermarket-distribution-workers-strike-for-better-conditions

    This should be the topic of the day…its all about the employment issues that have massive effect on the lives of a large number of non voters, tap into that and Labour could turn things around.

    • Sabine 21.1

      sometime ago they had a position that i was much qualified for and i applied.

      they were keen to employ me. but the wage was stupid low, so i politely declined.

      and that was not a job for a low skilled worker. no, they demanded degrees and work experience and such and still barely wanted to pay 40.000 plus. so much time wasted, my time. Sad!

  22. Macro 22

    Great news for the Left

    But The Fight Goes On
    There are continual early morning protests to slow contractors from accessing this site on public land and to disrupt the consequent high number of heavy trucks carrying excavated material along the narrow Karangahake Gorge road.

    Sign the petition here:

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