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Open mike 04/09/2020

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 4th, 2020 - 60 comments
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60 comments on “Open mike 04/09/2020 ”

  1. ScottGN 1

    So with the Greens seemingly about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory I wonder what the chances are of the Māori Party retaking one of their old seats? And maybe getting another MP in on the list? Should Labour end up in a narrow minority and needing a confidence and supply partner?

    • garibaldi 1.1

      Yes ScottGN. My concerns are now centered around keeping National out, rather than hoping the Greens can get back in. The Maori Party is a possibility but I will be watching the polls closely over the next few weeks and will vote primarily to keep Judith out out out.

      • Jester 1.1.1

        I think the Greens may dip in support, but should still get over the 5%. Nats best case scenario I reckon will be 35%, along with Act say 5% so I cant see a Nat govt anytime soon.

      • Bearded Git 1.1.2

        Gariboldi and Jester-the way to keep National out is for the Greens to get 5%+.

        Lab 44 Nats 39 Greens 4.9 NZF 4 Act 6 other wasted 2.1=PM Collins

        Jester-it is a small leap from 35% to 39%. Wait until the Nats DP campaign really kicks in. The attacks on Shaw will seem like a picnic in the woods.

    • Sabine 1.2

      one green sign here in rotorua, no candidate name, just he generic vote for us sign, but heeps of signs for the Maori Party guy, the Tamaki Crowd, the new conservatives, national, labour.

      Not that this is any indication of anything.

      • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1

        The Greens, as a party, tend to go for the party vote rather than electorate vote. Pretty much the only reason why they stand electorate candidates at all is because it ups their allowed spend on electioneering.

        To me, that's another reason to get rid of electorates and make all party electioneering funding the same.

    • McFlock 1.3

      dude, what?

      11% in the latest poll. I don't think the school is the gut punch pundits are salivating over.

      • Andre 1.3.1

        That was a Roy Morgan poll. Which are usually unreasonably optimistic about the Greens. And the sampling period was likely to be mostly if not entirely before the crystals hit the fan.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.4

      The Greens are fine, thank you for your concern.

  2. Andre 2

    Plan B arseholes are still trying to kill and disable New Zealanders by deliberately allowing disease to spread.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ananish-plan-b-oped

    It's an impressive collection of argument for authority, mistruths and outright bullshit they've put together.

    Starting with an attempt to discredit our health authorities with a gross misrepresentation of the advice around masks. They portray it as a complete reversal of position over two weeks, whereas the advice has actually evolved over months in response to changing circumstances, resources, priorities and new evidence.

    They whine about the cost of lockdowns and point to economics fantasies apparently comparing what happens under lockdown to some alternate universe where covid never happened.

    They try to downplay the very serious risk of death from covid, indulging in the really ugly "it's only risky to the old and already diseased" argument, as well as totally misleading comparisons like cherry-picking the lowest reasonably plausible infection fatality rate of 0.65%, and then saying the risk of dying in a car accident in the US in 2018 was 1 in 108 (their link actually says that's the lifetime odds). Never mind that the risk of dying in a transport accident is incurred while doing stuff we want to do, while there are absolutely zero positives associated with the risk of covid.

    Newsroom have also paired it with an argument for continuing the approach we have now:

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/why-a-plan-b-when-plan-a-is-working-so-well

    • AB 2.1

      100%. 'Plan B' psychopaths need to be shoved back into the crypt from whence they emerged. There isn't a plan B. There's simply competent management of a public health crisis – or eugenicist lunacy that produces worse outcomes on every indicator (health and economy). The non-existence of a Plan B becomes even more apparent as Plan A acquires superior tools (e,g, genomic testing, beefed up contact tracing) that allow the disruption to daily life to be reduced a little each time there is an outbreak.

      It's clear that the origins of Plan B thinking are are a set of completely irrational and onanistically-derived ideas about personal 'freedumb' being impinged by collective action on public health.

      • greywarshark 2.1.1

        Ooh AB you're a hero. You have managed to trounce those Plan B sods in well-chosen words. Which they won't absorb of course, being covered in teflon sort of flak bodysuits from which anything is repelled, and just runs down their legs into puddles on the ground. However to understand your enemy is a resource, and I consider them my enemy, and human society's enemy, now we recognise them for what they are.

        Perhaps they are The Halfmen of O that Maurice Gee wrote about. The books written under the Young Adult aegis are often questing, beautiful and disturbing as the protagonists search for direction and meaning.
        (Susan and Nick…are summoned to the beautiful land of O in a last-ditch attempt to save the planet from cruel Otis Claw and his followers, the evil Halfmen, who have lost every trace of human goodness and kindness.) https://www.penguin.co.nz/books/halfmen-of-o-9780143318347

        The O trilogy – https://www.goodreads.com/series/57343

    • Incognito 2.2

      It’s a pity that the ‘debate’ was highly polarised from the outset and turned into a dichotomy of Plan A and Plan B. The Plan B group did not help their cause whatsoever.

      • Andre 2.2.1

        It's not clear to me what the "plan B" lot are actually trying to achieve. Polling makes it look pretty clear the NZ public is solidly behind the elimination strategy, and are ok with being patient about a vaccine potentially happening next year.

        If the phase 3 trials that are already underway show all the current candidates to be abject failures, then it's likely there will be a strategy conversation to be had. But for now it just looks like "plan B" are merely trying to sow unhappiness. Their repetition of the "mumps vaccine took four years to develop" just adds to that impression. As a context-free fact, it's true enough, but it's also very relevant that that was over fifty years ago and our knowledge and manufacturing capabilities have improved by orders of magnitude since then.

        • joe90 2.2.1.1

          It's not clear to me what the "plan B" lot are actually trying to achieve

          They want around 45k* infected Kiwis with a third> developing cardiomyopathy. Sweet.

          (going by Sweden's numbers)*

          • Andre 2.2.1.1.1

            Well, yes, that's the likely result. But my poor opinion of them doesn't quite extend to thinking that's the primary objective. Surely they've got something else less shitty they're actually trying to achieve.

            Or maybe my view of other humans has taken to heart a bit too much of Jacinda's "kindness".

            • joe90 2.2.1.1.1.1

              I'd like to know who's funding them.

              The WHO special envoy on Coronavirus said on radio that while New Zealand had done well, it should now follow Sweden’s model.

              Scientist Michelle Dickinson said on radio that “we’re going with a different strategy now – our last strategy was elimination – now its almost learning to live with a virus.”

              https://www.covidplanb.co.nz/category/news-and-videos/

            • Draco T Bastard 2.2.1.1.1.2

              Surely they've got something else less shitty they're actually trying to achieve.

              Nope – they just seem to be trying to maintain the bludging profits of the rich.

          • Grafton Gully 2.2.1.1.2

            "with a third> developing cardiomyopathy."

            A third developing myocarditis perhaps, but based on experience with better known viral infections, only a minority will get a dilated cardiomyopathy.

            "Viral infection of the heart is relatively common and usually of little consequence. It can, however, lead to substantial cardiac damage and severe acute heart failure. It can also evolve into the progressive syndrome of chronic heart failure."

            https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11123385/

            Because Covid19 is a new disease there is limited experience and we will have to wait for further studies to see what proportion of people get myocarditis and in how many the inflammation resolves without the continuing damage that leads to cardiomyopathy.

            • joe90 2.2.1.1.2.1

              So anyone who does develop myocarditis post C19 infection can wait for the possibility of spontaneous recovery while new treatments for viral heart disease are awaited.

              Cool.

              /

        • Incognito 2.2.1.2

          It’s a moot point, really, because TINA. Nobody except some Opposition politicians seems to want having a conversation about anything but Plan A at the moment. High public support may be vital in the current context.

    • McFlock 2.3

      indulging in the really ugly "it's only risky to the old and already diseased" argument,

      The ease with that argument has emerged/resurfaced has definitely given me much to think about in the euthenasia referendum.

      • Andre 2.3.1

        It certainly highlights that kind of thought is out there and active. As far as the euthanasia thing goes, I think the safeguards in the process are more than sufficient to stop that kind of abuse from actually happening. So I'll still be a yes vote. But maybe I don't have contact with the wrong circles where the risk is real.

        • McFlock 2.3.1.1

          Looking at the yanks, bojo, and our local tories (and one or two fringe parties), I am almost certainly a no. But it's always sat uneasily with me, anyway.

        • Gabby 2.3.1.2

          It's a foot in the door.

          • Andre 2.3.1.2.1

            Possibly. But to me, the guaranteed benefit of giving people control of the end of their lives outweighs the hypothetical risk that is understood and appears to be adequately guarded against.

  3. ScottGN 3

    @garibaldi 1.1

    Me too.

    My priorities for the election are

    1. Returning Jacinda Ardern as PM
    2. Making sure that Collins and National are as far away from the treasury benches as possible

    If the Greens can help in that endeavour, then great. If not then Ardern either needs to do what no other PM has done since 1951 and win a plurality of the votes or hope there is another small party in the parliament who can give her minority government confidence and supply.

    That’s it.

    • Chris T 3.1

      "

      My priorities for the election are

      1. Returning Jacinda Ardern as PM
      2. Making sure that Collins and National are as far away from the treasury benches as possible"

      No offence intended, but is is quite funny how almost presidential politics has turned for some people.

      Ardern herself has said everything is decided by Caucus vote.

      • Stuart Munro 3.1.1

        While that may be true, her influence on the character of the government is very apparent, and represents a positive for Labour that it has not been able to offer in a generation.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.2

      If not then Ardern either needs to do what no other PM has done since 1951 and win a plurality of the votes

      The 1951 National government was the last government voted in with an outright majority of votes. All others since have only had a plurality.

      • Uncle Scrim 3.2.1

        The 1951 National government was the last government voted in with an outright majority of votes.

        You're right, although in reality before MMP (and the 'party vote') the percentage vote achieved by a party didn't have any real meaning in NZ's electoral system. Really what it means is that in 1951 the votes won by all the National MPs standing in electorates added together came to 54% of the total votes. All that mattered under FPTP though was winning seats. Until 1990 NZ ballot papers didn't even list candidates' party affiliation.

        Remarkably, in the last FPTP election (1993), National won 50 out of 99 seats with just 35% of the vote, to Labour's 34.6%. The combined c 27% won by the Alliance and NZ First earned them two seats each. FPTP really was an extremely unfair system.

  4. RedBaronCV 4

    The police teams that tooled up to terrorise the neighbourhood. According to the story it was Waikato, Counties Manakau and Canterbury selected. But I thought some where running around Palmerston North?

    Plus the serious misjudgement that this would make people feel safer??

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300094225/police-armed-response-teams-dumped-because-they-created-fear-documents-show

  5. joe90 5

    Filleted.

    • greywarshark 5.1

      They are talking about Abbott. And he is good at trade, so despite a number of defects he's okay. And that is how we feel about Australia – has defects but serves a purpose so we can't be too staunch about those cobbers.

    • Andre 5.2

      Is that Dutton's long lost twin?

      Or did the lizard people replicator glitch and run the same recipe twice?

  6. solkta 6

    I have made a comment twice in the reds under the beds thread and it has disappeared once i get back to the homepage both times.

  7. greywarshark 7

    The ship, the people and the cows in the typhoon.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/425193/missing-cattle-export-ship-second-survivor-found-unconscious-in-sea

    Two people found, one face down, one first officer seemingly okay. Dozens of cows. The engines went down, and then the seas turned them over.

    • McFlock 7.1

      Yep. Fucking tragic.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.2

      But Peters said a complete halt on cattle exports in the future was not the answer.

      "If it was not for livestock exports, this country would have no farming industry at all.

      Hahahahahahahahaha

      Peters just proved that he doesn't understand economics as it pertains to the real world. These cattle were exported as breeding stock which means that, in the fullness of time, we won't be exporting cattle any more, or milk or any of the other by-products because China will be out-competing us (which I'm in favour of).

      "I can't remember in all my years – I've been 40 years in the industry – hearing of a livestock ship sinking and claiming lives… it's quite exceptional."

      No matter how big we build Gaia is always going to prove that she is still bigger and more powerful than we are.

      • greywarshark 7.2.1

        Yes you don't hear that sort of fact coming up in discussion – the economics of it. We are exporting good breeding stock for a handful of beans! And unless we have a fearless, flight of foot Jack to do something amazing climbing the Beanstalk and running away with the giant's goodies, which would never be allowed, we won't find any high side to this. But who's looking after the country's interest.

        And the usual amazement about any event, it never happened in my life before. Everything changes, but I'm still the same.

        (Joe Walsh Life's been good to me so far https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ocviQ3ux0)

        We didn't do anything when the kiwifruit was sold overseas, and it is a matter of discussion whether having it growing elsewhere ultimately introduced it to the world market better than we could have done. We could at least have tried for a royalty on the genetic material. Till it got pinched.

  8. Corey Humm 8

    The winter energy payment ends two weeks before the election. Two weeks.

    The amount of Beneficiaries who came out and voted for the first time in 2017 who are about to lose $40 and $60 should worry labour because theyll stay home and it's a couple % that labour will lose.

    Labour have ruthlessly created a two tier welfare system at a time when people who were on welfare prior to covid can't get employed because people who lost their jobs cos of COVId will get preference than longer term unemployed people.

    The families package doesn't do a damn thing for disabled , mentally unwell, or unemployed people on their own so when labour says they've done enough for Beneficiaries and quote the family package I wanna rip out my hair.

    Give all solo Beneficiaries or atleast disabled and mentally unwell Beneficiaries the covid unemployment rate or extend the winter energy payment or you're going to see Beneficiaries stay home, or get angry and even more alienated with govt that they vote nzpp or you'll see unemployment demonstrations and protests.

    Disgusting that so many people who support labour on my social media are now realizing they are about to lose a bunch of money in a couple weeks and are furious. There's no jobs for them and they can't afford and don't deserve to live in these conditions.

    Some of that kindness please labour. It's gonna cost you electorally to have some of your biggest supporters lose a chunk of change two weeks out from the election

    • Draco T Bastard 8.1

      Give all solo Beneficiaries or atleast disabled and mentally unwell Beneficiaries the covid unemployment rate or extend the winter energy payment or you're going to see Beneficiaries stay home, or get angry and even more alienated with govt that they vote nzpp or you'll see unemployment demonstrations and protests.

      Or they vote for the party that will actually be good for them and vote Green.

      • Sabine 8.1.1

        yeah, right. Tui.

        again, the 25 NZD in benefit increase that the Greens are so proud of is ONLY because of Covid.

        Just think about that for a moment, let it marinate, and then again, both the increase in base benefit and the double heating payment did not come about because of the need for this money but because of Covid.

        Labour, NZ First and the Greens just gave the very poor as much kindness and gentleness as they had too and not one bit more. And as the fullah above says, and even the governments own adviser group says, Not good enough.

        • Draco T Bastard 8.1.1.1

          And withoput the Greens we probably wouldn't have seen even that amount.

          Having more Green say in government will help ensure that those increases are permanent and even higher. If you don't want that then vote Labour or NZFirst.

          To get the transformation that we really need we need the Greens with more power.

  9. Herodotus 9

    Should the greens be returned with say with 5% vote or win central Auckland and achieve less than 5%, Shaw decides to “retire” how does any party cope with a co leader who is not in parliament ? As the next male is ranked 8th, as under my scenario 6 max get in so the next in line would be Golriz.

    IMO NZ losses out everytime a political party is removed from parliament. We do need a variety of views there in Wellington.

    • Andre 9.1

      Russel Norman was co-leader for a couple of years before he went into parliament.

      • Herodotus 9.1.1

        I didn’t know that

        not ideal there are parties that have had the next person stand down to enable the one that is desired to be there to make it into parliament

        • Andre 9.1.1.1

          With the in government but not in government thing going on, there may even be some optical benefit in having a co-leader that is not an MP for those occasions when the government does something that is not in line with Green policies and values.

          It just happened that Norman was next on the list when Tanczos called it quits. Otherwise he would have had to wait until the election, or persuade those ahead of him to withdraw from the list.

    • PaddyOT 10.1

      Surveillance masquerading as Socialism; nationwide electronic Big data collection on babies ( instead of data with care providers ) and then profiling ( racially ) – aka as the resurrection of " social investment ".

      A system that never addressed the deeper causes, offering psychological sweeteners to groom the gullible at election time.

      Socialism is about addressing equality and justice for people. This ugly fairy delivering ' save the babies ' policy has its main objective entrenched in economics, saving money.

      The social investment model is then privatised through contracting, see the small print -: $3000 is a credit ( for extras on top of free care already available eg. Parenting course) to government nominated and approved agents only.

      Has Paula Bennett's legacy slipped from people's minds, did her Valedictory speech accidently mention the way forward was ' social investment' ? "

      " ..under a more accurate definition, social investment reflects four characteristics of neo-liberalism: the de-politicisation of the economy and of welfare reform; the economic understanding of the state; the extension of economic rationale to non-economic domains; and the anthropology human capital. Taking this view, while social investment is preferable to welfare retrenchment, it promotes the same kind of citizenship as neo-liberalism, especially in terms of the marginalisation of the role of democracy in regulating the economy."

      "Social investment: Diffusing ideas for redesigning citizenship after neo-liberalism? "

      Francesco Laruffa

      First Published December 31, 2017 Research Article Sage Publications.

  10. AB 11

    Oh boy. CDC has informed states to be ready to distribute a Covid-19 vaccine by Nov. 1 (2 days before the US election) and to remove all impediments to doing so. Trump isn't going to roll over – he'll lie through his teeth about a vaccine and how he's saved millions of lives. Don't see how they can do proper tests of either efficacy or adverse events in that timeframe?

    • Andre 11.1

      He's jealous his besties Poots and Xi can just order something to be approved and start jabbing soldiers and doctors. So he's trying to prove he can just order things to happen too, and blame "the Deep State" trying to sabotage him when it doesn't work out.

      Just as well nobody's explained the concept of challenge trials to him or he would be ordering them to be done on troops. Or maybe somebody tried and he didn't pay attention.

  11. KJT 12

    I've learnt, after studying thousands of marine accident reports, that the causes are not always the obvious ones. And it is best to wait until you have all the facts.

    Just a few observations.

    TRS do not always follow the expected tracks. In places with limited sea room the options to avoid them are also limited.

    The Captain has the responsibility, but little power these days. Especially from places with no labour law protection, like all "Flag of convenience" registries, and most countries that supply crews.

    No vessel is hurricane proof. Luck, seamanship, construction, maintenance and design all play a part.

  12. Andre 13

    Oh shit. A new death from COVID. Condolences to his family, friends and all others affected.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300100073/coronavirus-auckland-man-dies-in-icu-the-first-death-of-the-cluster

  13. Andre 14

    They should have all got themselves bonespurs deferments and been winners at their own personal Vietnams like he was.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/300100019/donald-trump-disparaged-us-war-dead-as-losers-suckers–report

    Wonder if it's occurred to him that even a generally solid Repug voting bloc like the military might have their limits when you repeatedly go out of your way to offensively insult them.

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

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