Obama and Romney come to an agreement on Climate Change.
They both agree not to talk about it.
However despite Obama and Romney’s gentlmen’s agreement to keep silent on climate change. An opposite and more forthright agreement to openly discuss climate change is developing among lower ranked US political leaders.
After ‘Sandy’ the possibility of an East Coast, if not nation wide bipartisan political consensus to tackle climate change is beginning to emerge.
“There has been a series of extreme weather incidents. That is not a political statement. That is a factual statement,”
” Anyone who says there’s not a dramatic change in weather patterns, I think, is denying reality.”
“I think part of learning from this is realizing that climate change is a reality.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo press briefing Tuesday (Oct. 30)
“All up and down the East Coast, there are mayors … being told, ‘You’ve got to move these houses back away from the ocean. You’ve got to lift them up. Climate change is going to raise the water levels on a permanent basis. If you want your town insured, you have to do this.”
Former President Bill Clinton before a crowd Tuesday (Oct. 30)
Obama is the better candidate to deal with climate change, which may have contributed to the superstorm.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg Thursday (Nov. 1)
High-profile figures like Bloomberg, Cuomo and Clinton speaking candidly and practically about climate change suggests a change of pace among public officials. But will the dialogue on extreme weather and climate that has emerged in Sandy’s wake alter the national conversation (or lack thereof) on climate change? Or will that discussion recede with Sandy’s floodwaters and the week’s news cycle?
If they choose to pick it up, Whichever candidate emerges victorious they will have the makings of this bipartisan consensus lying at hand all around them.
Whichever candidate wins the US presidential elections, the first order of business, must be to immediately order an assessment of the best strategy to combat climate change, seeking the best advice of the world’s best scientists and climate experts. The fate of civilisation, possibly even the fate of humanity depend on it.
Of the two candidates, Obama, in my opinion, would be best placed to do this, being less close to vested business interest linked to the oil and coal lobby. But all the evidence is, that he is failing the test.
Agreed. They also cannot say how much of “Sandy” is attributable to solar flares, warm water, ocean gods, or some guy mooning the latter from the beach.
Your statement is meaningless because everything is statistically based and an absolute level of confidience is something that science leaves for matters of religous faith.
Imagine that the actuarial tables on mortality state that a man of your age has a say 1 in 50 probability of dying this year. Does this ‘reliably’ inform us whether you will be alive at the end of the year or not?
Of course not.
The only sense in which such tables are meaningful are when you examine (or sample) a whole lot of men of your age. If for example you sampled say 1000 men, then you could be fairly sure that 20 of them might not make it to the end of the year. But it tells you nothing about each individual man.
In the same way science can reliably predict that increased ocean temperatures and more water vapour in the atmosphere will increase the probability of more frequent severe storms, and increase their peak intensity. It doesn’t reliably tell you anything much about an individual storm. Instead you have to wait until you’ve had many dozens of storms like Sandy before we can confirm the statistical prediction reliably.
Of course the insurance industry might well spit the dummy at funding such an extended and expensive experiment. The death toll might prove a bit of an irritation too.
There is a fair amount of data available regarding the recent storm in the US all one can say is only that some of its components may have been due to climate change.
The late-season formation may have been influenced by a shifting climate, but its meet-up with an early North American winter storm had no climate change connection.
A high-pressure blocking event, which may have been climate change-related, steered the storm toward the East Coast rather than out to sea.
Unusually high tides amplified the storm surge and flooding, but the tides had nothing to do with climate change. And the fact that those four events happened simultaneously was just a very unfortunate coincidence.
Warmer temperatures, which allowed the storm to carry more moisture, and higher sea level are likely to have amplified its effects. The higher sea level — a foot higher than when the city’s protective sea walls were built a century ago can almost certainly be attributed to climate change.
So if I read what you are saying, then you agree that man-made climate change is real and is fast becoming a significant component of severe and adverse weather events?
And going back to your first point; that the barrier to doing anything about it is political … and always has been.
In other words, climate change affects existing weather and how it intersects with other phenomena like geography, tides and time. Isn’t that a given already?
Hs: Your second and third paragraph are in direct contradiction with each other.
The reason this particular storm came onshore at that latitude rather than doing the usual wander into the Atlantic was because it was blocked by a northern jetstream coming lower in latitude than usual.
If you look at the historic tracks for hurricanes at that latitude you will see that it is almost unknown for them to turn inland. If you look at the historic tracks of the jetstreams you will see that they seldom come down far enough to block which provides the room for hurricanes driven by the otherwise minor effect of the earths rotation to move east .
The physics of arctic warming when modeled indicate that the jetstreams will have a higher amplitude, and over the last decade that is exactly what has been seen. So it becomes a higher probability that there will be offshore blocking events driving hurricanes into the upper eastern seaboard of the US. That also increases the probability of hitting cold fronts being spun out of the arctic by those same jetstreams and following that same rotational spin towards the east (frontal systems have quite predictable tracks as well when they don’t get blocked).
It isn’t coincidental. It will probably become more and more obvious through the rest of this current weather cycle for the next few years, then it will reduce in probability as the rate of the deicing of the arctic wanes and the atmosphere shifts to a new equilibrium. It will then resume in the 2020’s.
What the SA was saying was that the degree of the impact of climate change on that storm wasn’t proveable yet (although highly likely) because it takes a number of events to get a statistical sample sufficient to establish confidience. By the time that there is the required confidience, the east coast will have developed good hurricane systems anyway – they will have had received quite a few – probably 10 or more to get to a 90% confidience level that there has been a shift in the high latitude hurricane tracks.
Reductionism of the type you were repeating has it’s place in science, but in weather and climate systems you really have to look at the whole because the effects work on each other in a much more complex set of interactions.
Thanks 1prent. Most people view the weather as a surface event only but it is not. What goes on in the upper atmosphere plays a major role in how things turn out at the surface. In recent decades the polar jets (both North and South) have been tracking further into lower latitudes than has hitherto been the case. When this happens and cold air from those upper level jet streams feed into warmer surface cyclonic weather systems then you can expect further cyclonic generation to occur. It is certainly due to global warming, and as a consequence… expect to see deeper and more frequent tropical cyclonic events occurring in the Southern Pacific region too.
It is their article I was quoting but perhaps you should send them a letter what with your earth sciences BSc I’m sure you’re far more erudite than any of their contributors and with your computer skills you’d be able to model weather events with far greater reliability than anyone else has to date.
What can be denied is the youtube video you have linked to with alarmist comments suggests a warming of 6 or more degrees C in the next few decades.
You’ve not been keeping up. The video was quoting the IEA:
LONDON, April 27 (UPI) — Global greenhouse gas emissions will nearly double by 2050 under current policies unless urgent action is taken, the International Energy Agency has warned.
Issuing a stark assessment this week at a London environmental conference, the energy policy advisory group said failure to develop fossil fuel alternatives quickly will put the world on an irreversible course to a catastrophic long-term temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius.
“Under current policies, we estimate that energy use and (carbon dioxide) emissions would increase by a third by 2020, and almost double by 2050,” said IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones.
“This would likely send global temperatures at least 6 degrees higher. Such an outcome would confront future generations with significant economic, environmental and energy security hardships,” he added.
The grim forecast was delivered at the third annual Clean Energy Ministerial, which brought together ministers from 23 governments for discussions on clean energy progress and opportunities.
While it’s true that some years ago, 6 degrees was considered a fringe ‘worst-case’ scenario, as with so many other things around climate science, it’s rapidly become a lot more main-stream.
Coming as it is just a week before Election Day, Sandy makes the fact that climate change has been entirely ignored during this campaign seem all the more grotesque. In a year of record-breaking temperatures across the U.S., record drought conditions in the country’s corn belt, and now a record storm affecting the nation’s most populous cities, neither candidate found the issue to be worthy of discussion. Pressed about this finally the other day on MTV, President Obama called climate change a “critical issue” that he was “surprised” hadn’t come up during any of the debates, a response that was at once completely accurate and totally disingenuous. (As one commentator pointed out, he might have brought up this “critical” issue on his own since “he is the friggin’ POTUS.”)
Definition: The CCDs argue that climate change is not real and is not happening. CCDS explain the controversy is a result of global conspiracy deliberately concocted by scientists politicians and media, unfortunately they have not been able to give any rational explanation of the reasons for this conspiracy.
Current Status: The CCDs are Pretty much at the fringes of the current debate on climate change
Title: Climate Change Apologists
Definition: CCAs admit that climate change is happening, but say that jobs, profits, the economy and growth, and a myriad other issues are far more important than taking steps to address climate change. The apologists are also adept at blaming or scapegoating others, usually groups that they have taken a dislike to anyway. This group are quite comfortable with the idea of millions if not billions of human deaths, as well as the destruction of entire eco systems and the resulting animal and plant extinctions. Their previously listed preoccupations are considered far more important.
Current status: The most sinister, cynical and dangerous of the different Climate Change factions. Currently the CCAs are the main spear carriers for doing nothing about climate change
And now a third category has arisen:
Title: Climate Change Ignorers
Definition: Political leaders and parties who refuse to even mention Climate Change, if they can avoid it. Usually for sectarian political advantage, ie not scare the horses, not look too radical in the eyes of the voters, not offend vested interest etc etc.
Rather than alert the electorate and the wider population to the danger, the CCIs put getting bums on seats for their particular sectarian grouping more important than even alerting their political rivals who could steal a policy march on them.
The whole topic of Climate Change is a ‘no go area’ for these politicians. They will rarely if ever mention the subject of Climate Change unless it is pushed right up under their noses, and often not even then. If forced to mention Climate Change CCIs say that one day when they are in complete control of the presidency and the congress, or have the most seats in the house of parliament then they will call for action on Climate Change. CCIs neither deny, or apologise for climate change, they just simply ignore it.
Current Status: The most ridiculous and laughable faction of all, I don’t expect it to last long.
Being connected to the internal network is definitely a security breach waiting to happen, but I find it hard to believe that such an obvious problem went unnoticed for 13 years, yet within 1 year of the new kiosks being set up it was discovered on at least 2 separate occasions (that we know of).
Therefore, I suggest, that although the old computers may have been connected to the internal network, they did not exhibit the same basic security breach (that is, navigating with an ‘open file’ dialog in Word would give you access to the entire network) probably through some configuration option that stopped it, which should also have been configured on the kiosks but wasn’t.
This means that the security was still incredibly lax and just waiting for someone malicious to exploit it, but this would have required a specific intent to do so by someone with the required skills, rather than any moderately-knowledgeable office worker with Microsoft Office skills being able to find it.
In short, no, the evidence would suggest that National is worse than Labour.
That depends. I’d like to see the report. But on the face of it, MSD under National were told, at least twice, that there was a serious problem and to fix it, and that advice was ignored. What happened under Labour? I don’t think we know yet.
Says so much about his myopic view of our society and how he thinks he’ll ‘add value’.
Talk about give a bigot RWNJ, with established psych issues, an even bigger soapbox to indoctrinate the frogs with, last roll of the dice for the truth IMO.
if they can’t boost the circulation appealing with dog whistles they are history like so may publications are already.
It’d only sell at union sites (well maybe they need to be a bit more careful with the money…) but it might put a stop to the rampant jealousy of whaleoil…
Rortney Hide on the financial transparency war path! Has Rortney come clean on his girlfriend’s parliamentary travel perks yet? Or his flash international hotel stays?
Yeah Draco. Bluddy right wing nobs. They say that they are: ” Legatum Institute (LI) is an independent non-partisan public policy organisation whose research, publications, and programmes advance ideas and policies in support of free and prosperous societies around the world.”
Must be a trick in there somewhere. I expect Parata will now quote the claim that NZ is “first in the World Education” as being the product and vision of her leadership. Yeah Right!
Their credibility? In their own words, “…we have a vision of a more prosperous world based on greater economic and political liberty balanced with personal and institutional responsibility.”
So, free markets and personal responsibility and political liberty that is probably measured in terms of consumer choice and institutional responsibility measured in terms of protecting a market ‘free for all’ and keeping pesky citizens who want more political freedom than mere consumer choice firmly in line.
Chalupabot, your count is getting too high. 18.4% of all comments on this site in the last 48 hours have been made using your handle. As you know, the limit to avoid unwanted attention is 9.7%
Please return to an acceptable ratio or use some of your other handles.
Interesting boots on the ground report of the chaos that is Sandy. Disturbingly there are still Americans full of the belief that someone will rescue them, so they don’t need to prep.
Give it a week and that attitude will be wiped out – at least in affected areas. We would do well to heed their experience.
DB Breweries has been slammed for abusing Kim Dotcom’s wife on a Tui billboard. Seventeen billboards around the country say “She clearly married Dotcom for his body. Yeah right”.
Dotcom, in a statement to the Herald on Sunday, described the campaign as “hurtful and insulting. It’s not only offensive to me and my wife but to everyone who is overweight and their partners”, he said.
He said his wife Mona had been through hell in the past nine months.
Tui marketing manager Jarrod Bear said the billboards were an irreverent spin on topical issues that would appeal to “everyday Kiwis”.
One person, (not Dotcom) has laid a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority.
Fuckin’ A, weka. Tui can sometimes be actually funny but the rest of the time it’s just embarrassing the way their marketing team’s rampant insecurities are put out their for the world to see …
+1 Only a complete moron would drink that ferrets piss anyway. I guess with such despicable advertising that only a moron could like, DB Breweries is trying to appeal to their consumer base. An irreverent spin on topical issues… Yeah right! It’s defamatory rubbish that many New Zealanders will be offended at.
Yep. One Tui billboard in ten might actually be funny. Unless Jarrod Bear is willing to put a photo of him/herself and partner on a billboard, he/she should just shut up.
Yes Fran O Cyclops has really lost the plot, or that article was intended to be a job application to join the (non) Truth. ( I see production problems looming with frequent web-breaks* due to slaters being keen to feast on rotting paper)
*web-breaks is printers jargon for the reel of paper snapping when press is running
And under Fran O’Sullivan’s embrassing brain-blurt, is the perfec place to copy the email I sent to my son today, after doing some reading:
“This was said on the IMDB boards about a Romney supporter, arrested
for voting twice:
“I understand why you and the government would hate such a women.
She’s a hero, one of the very few Americans actually trying to rid us
of the corrupt regime currently hogging power.
“Lock her up” You said, well so did all the dictators.”
Hilarious, and yet very disturbing…”
I’m sorry I clicked that. But I guess it was time for my annual reminder of how pathetic “evidence” has to be for WO to treat it as hard-hitting gospel.
(For those who don’t wish to click: Hamish Keith tweets “why no Labour MPs at Fabians”, Cunliffe tweets “sorry, I had a cold”, Cactus responds “you didn’t look sick when I saw you in town today!” It’s fucking riveting journalism, Keith Ng should take note of how it’s really done.)
Maybe he was sick enough that he couldn’t attend a major function and put on his future-labour leader face….but he was well enough to get up for a meal.
A few weeks back I wasn’t feeling well enough to get over the other side of town for a meeting, but I could get down to the supermarket.
You need to stop letting whaleoil think for you chalupa batman, you can probably do better with your own brain
Exactly. There’s no reason anyone has to be deliberately lying, it’s just bullshit for Cactus/WO to act like one non-medical professional’s opinion of how a person looks has any bearing on their actual state of health.
I’m sure the Fabians would approach Cunliffe if they had a reason.
Everyone’s working toward the same goal etc.
When it comes down to doing something concrete is when we’ll see them talking.
One should always take with a great deal of cynicism anything that Slater says about Cunliffe. I am interested in his obsession with DC, obviously he thinks that Cunliffe is a threat to the right and needs to be attacked at every opportunity.
The reality is that David is crook. He pulled out of some no asset sales petition campaigning that was arranged for this morning and this afternoon he is missing an important party fundraiser. I have spoken to him a couple of times and he sounds sick as.
Oh yes, it’s been amusing – Richard Long begging Shearer not to reshuffle, Hooters saying that really, David Shearer needs more support and Cunliffe should be sacked while Farrar, knowing that Shearer’s a lost cause, suggests the next waste of space, Robertson.
All of them presenting themselves as sensible voices of reason – just like Pete George, come to think of it.
Alas, the Right and their shills know what they want and make it clear…
Now I was under the impression that, that vindictive old bat lived in Hong Kong. So HOW could she see Cunliffe in town? Also when I had the flu, I still had to go out, and people probably from looking at me didn’t realise I was screwing up their lives for the 3 weeks it takes to get over the flu. And anyway, anything Whaleshit says, needs to be checked, rechecked, verified, with at least 10 other neutral people. And I still WILL NOT believe a word he vomits.
There’s been a lot of disinformation being promoted by the right wing at the moment concerning Unions. In fact if you didn’t know the real reasons behind what propagandists like David Farrar, Cameron Slater and Rodney Hide were saying, you might believe that Unions are an evil blight on society…
Do you mean the Unions should follow the rules or the NBR should adhere to publication laws Chalupa Batman? The Unions have followed the rules. The NBR hasn’t because it’s publishing inaccuracies based on Hides speculation. There has been no finding of wrongdoing on the part of the Unions. Clearly the NBR has again breached publication laws by promoting defamatory and inaccurate speculation.
Good article Jackal, I’d like to see these dropkicks getting their asses sued for defamation by the Unions concerned.
Hide should find a rock and invite those other creeps to join him in entombment.
Thanks fender. You’re clearly talking about Act’s standard retirement package… Slithering under a rock is the best place for the likes of the unlawful David Garrett, John Banks and the rest of the deluded Actoids. What a bunch of worms!
How about this then, we wait for Neville Harris to decide whats what and if in the unlikely event theres nothing I’ll apoligise. Of course once something dodgy has been uncovered we’ll expect an apology from you?
Apologize for saying that there’s been no finding of any wrongdoing? Get off the grass Chalupa. Just like Affco’s complaint to the Serious Fraud Office, the Companies Office won’t find anything unlawful either. That’s because Rodney Hide is full of shit, and always has been.
You want me to say I’ll apologize about a what if? How retarded!
The claims by Hide and Slater that the Maritime and Meatworkers Union’s are hiding and misspending millions of dollars of their members money are in the present tense false. There is no evidence, I repeat no evidence of this. They’re speculating and then trying to say their assumptions are facts.
I think QoT summed it up nicely today when she wrote:
I’m sorry I clicked that. But I guess it was time for my annual reminder of how pathetic “evidence” has to be for WO to treat it as hard-hitting gospel.
In my opinion, the same can be said about the deplorable Rodney Hide as well.
Hunter S. Thompson was onto that trick long ago, relating an anecdote about Lyndon Johnson wanting stories about his opponent fucking pigs to be promulgated. When his advisors were shocked (this was a more innocent time), saying that there was no evidence, Johnson retorted, “I want him up there denying that he fucks pigs!”
Hide’s article’s aren’t about if something is found, he’s saying they’re already guilty even though there’s no evidence of this. My article is about Hide and Slater’s baseless propaganda, which is a fact. Therefore I won’t be apologizing to you Chalupa Batman.
Oh for gods sake CB will you just get over it, your tiny mind has obviously been overloaded with this discussion, other wise you would be writing something of substance and value instead of repeating Whaleshit’s propaganda, and wanting an apology to a non existent wet dream you once had?
I heard the recognisable thud thud thud of a helicopter’s rotor blades. I looked up to see one of our birds coming in, guns blazing!
“We’re saved!” I yelled, leaping to my feet, waving my arms so as to be seen.
The chopper came in on its run, and I knew it would leave a trail of destruction. The gunner let loose and the world all around us turned to fire. Roy and Douglas went down in a bloody mist, but Johnny somehow escaped being eviscerated by the chopper’s 30-mm chain gun. I dived to the ground.
“You’re shooting at the wrong target!” I screamed into the radio.
“Sorry about that,” came the reply. I knew the voice all too well. “But frankly, er, you’re lucky we even came. Stand by for pick-up. Gunner Perigo, er, have you got a fix on the enemy?”
If Cameron Slater is ‘no holds barred’ in holding politicians ‘feet to the fire’ – what has he done to hold John Bank’s (and Don Brash’s) ‘feet to the fire’ over the ‘ONE LAW FOR ALL’ (that they both support) – not yet applying to them over Huljich?
(John Banks and Don Brash were both former Directors of Huljich Wealth Management (NZ) Ltd, and both signed Huljich Kiwisaver Registered Prospectuses dated 22 August 2008 and 18 September 2009 which contained untrue statements – a ‘strict liability’ offence under s.58(3) of the Securities Act.)
I formally requested the Finance Markets Authority (FMA), the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), and the NZ Police apply ‘ONE LAW FOR ALL’ to the former and current ACT Party Leaders.
When each of the above-mentioned put it in writing that they would do nothing, I petitioned Parliament for an urgent investigation. However – the national party dominated Commerce Select Committee also chose to do nothing.
At least I tried!
What has Cameron Slater done on this issue?)
Why has Cameron Slater banned me for commenting on his ‘Whaleoil’ blog – is he purports to support ‘freedom of expression’?
If staff at the ‘TRUTH’ are covered by employment law – how long is Cameron Slater going to last, as ‘TRUTH’ Editor?
(Kind regards Cameron – I’d be making this comment to you directly – on YOUR blog – if you hadn’t ‘banned’ me? 🙂
Why has Cameron Slater banned me for commenting on his ‘Whaleoil’ blog – is he purports to support ‘freedom of expression’?
– Probably because you posted long-winded, boring diatribes that basically had nothing to do with the thread, wouldn’t reply when challenged and ignored the warnings given
Good because National/Key (there’s no difference) continue to fade. Plan A is finished, only Plan B will save them. There won’t be a “National plus electorate Righties” majority at the next election. Key’s been found out, and the voters are looking for alternatives.
Which brings us to National’s Plan B … a third term thanks to Labour fucking up. That’s their best hope now.
So again, a good poll because the (few) remaining Labour ostriches can’t keep those heads in the sand. As National’s support declines, voters will turn to the opposition that is not Labour. Like Winston, in this poll.
Unless Labour decide (finally) to do something about that.
Polls like this – and the last Roy Morgan one – make it more likely that they will. Good.
Taken in concert with the most recent roymorgan, beginning to be a bit concerning. The issue for labour is to get out of the low30s in CB polls and at the moment it seems pretty steady.
During the time this poll was taken the following was going on:
-MSD privacy scandal
– The Government messing up on asset sales and Maori water rights
– Christchurch school screw ups
– Sweet talking its way through “No manufacturing crisis”
– Key being absolutely unbelievable and brain faded in the Dotcom/GCSB affair.
I never watch TV these days but clicked through to get a taste of everything that’s not changed. Front of vid is a still picture of JK raising a glass (in the vid it coincides with him saying ‘cheers’). JK in a factory that’s still open! And (the only potentially dodgy one) in operating garb to a voice over about ‘the good health’ of the Nats. Shearer edited to be heard apparently taking advice from a fucking wizard. Shearer standing looking at derelict sites and (twice?) framed alongside a ‘No Public Access’ sign.
And less than 50% of those polled thinking the economy will improve is spun in a positive light!
Anyway. If a Shearer led Labour Party that does nothing but shoot itself in the foot and offer gift horses to the Nats is still over 30%, just imagine what a Labour Party could do.
And then the scare mongering begins about the prospect of a dysfunctional NZ1/Green/Labour coalition. Because we’re meant to believe that NZ1 wouldn’t go with the Nats!?
Funny how TV1 says National can govern alone on 44%.
They ignore NZF because they are only on 4.9%.
Yet they count The Maori Party, Act, the Conservative Party and Mana who are all struggling to register.
So if you put Labour 32%, Greens 12%, NZF 4.9% = 48.9%.
This for the sake of discussion trumps National on the poll, doesn’t it?
Not all that good for Labour but not that bad either 2 years out from an election.
You’d think by now we would have a user-friendly web app for calculating various results. And that the MSM would be putting polls in those contexts.
Old fashioned I know, but I think the media’s job here is to report on the range of things that might happen (you know, actually inform people), rather than promoting one in particular. Would love to know how that editorial decision was made.
Ian, the reason they are counting MP, ACT, UF and Mana is because they’re all in parliament due to safe-ish electoral seats (except maybe UF). NZF is completely dependent on crossing the 5%.
Well actually there is a calculator for working out the allocated seats depending on vote percentages. It’s called the MMP seat allocation calculator. Of course the MSM can’t be bothered using it because it would mean they couldn’t peddle their propaganda.
You would increase or decrease the likelihood of certain MPs winning electoral seats on the previous election results in comparison to the percentage of current polling. Just assuming that the current incumbent MPs would retain their seats even though their party support has declined and then claiming the right wing would be able to form the next government is obviously wrong!
In fact it’s astounding just how arrogant the media is with its manipulations. They treat the public like fools!
Yes I know about that calculator, it’s just not very user friendly.
I’m not sure that there is such a direct correlation re the seats and previous/current polls, esp re the Maori Party/Mana seats. Have you done that calculation?
Right on, mac. It’s a Brolmar, and NACT’s desperate for good news. Take 10% off NAT, add 5% to Lab, have a good chortle at “add ACT and MP” and the ignoring of Winnie, and relax.
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I don't mind where you come fromAs long as you come to meBut I don't like illusionsI can't see them clearlyI don't care, no I wouldn't dareTo fix the twist in youYou've shown me eventually what you'll doSong: Shimon Moore, Emma Anzai, Antonina Armato, and Tim James.National Hugging Day.Today, January ...
Is Rwanda turning into a country that seeks regional dominance and exterminates its rivals? This is a contention examined by Dr Michela Wrong, and Dr Maria Armoudian. Dr Wrong is a journalist who has written best-selling books on Africa. Her latest, Do Not Disturb. The story of a political murder ...
The economy isn’t cooperating with the Government’s bet that lower interest rates will solve everything, with most metrics indicating per-capita GDP is still contracting faster and further than at any time since the 1990-96 series of government spending and welfare cuts. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short in ...
Hi,Today is the day sexual assaulter and alleged rapist Donald Trump officially became president (again).I was in a meeting for three hours this morning, so I am going to summarise what happened by sharing my friend’s text messages:So there you go.Welcome to American hell — which includes all of America’s ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkI have a new paper out today in the journal Dialogues on Climate Change exploring both the range of end-of-century climate outcomes in the literature under current policies and the broader move away from high-end emissions scenarios. Current policies are defined broadly as policies in ...
Long story short: I chatted last night with ’s on the substack app about the appointment of Chris Bishop to replace Simeon Brown as Transport Minister. We talked through their different approaches and whether there’s much room for Bishop to reverse many of the anti-cycling measures Brown adopted.Our chat ...
Last night I chatted with Northland emergency doctor on the substack app for subscribers about whether the appointment of Simeon Brown to replace Shane Reti as Health Minister. We discussed whether the new minister can turn around decades of under-funding in real and per-capita terms. Our chat followed his ...
Christopher Luxon is every dismal boss who ever made you wince, or roll your eyes, or think to yourself I have absolutely got to get the hell out of this place.Get a load of what he shared with us at his cabinet reshuffle, trying to be all sensitive and gracious.Dr ...
The text of my submission to the Ministry of Health's unnecessary and politicised review of the use of puberty blockers for young trans and nonbinary people in Aotearoa. ...
Hi,Last night one of the world’s biggest social media platforms, TikTok, became inaccessible in the United States.Then, today, it came back online.Why should we care about a social network that deals in dance trends and cute babies? Well — TikTok represents a lot more than that.And its ban and subsequent ...
Sometimes I wake in the middle of the nightAnd rub my achin' old eyesIs that a voice from inside-a my headOr does it come down from the skies?"There's a time to laugh butThere's a time to weepAnd a time to make a big change"Wake-up you-bum-the-time has-comeTo arrange and re-arrange and ...
Former Health Minister Shane Reti was the main target of Luxon’s reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short to start the year in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate: Christopher Luxon fired Shane Reti as Health Minister and replaced him with Simeon Brown, who Luxon sees ...
Yesterday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced a cabinet reshuffle, which saw Simeon Brown picking up the Health portfolio as it’s been taken off Dr Shane Reti, and Transport has been given to Chris Bishop. Additionally, Simeon’s energy and local government portfolios now sit with Simon Watts. This is very good ...
The sacking of Health Minister Shane Reti yesterday had an air of panic about it. A media advisory inviting journalists to a Sunday afternoon press conference at Premier House went out on Saturday night. Caucus members did not learn that even that was happening until yesterday morning. Reti’s fate was ...
Yesterday’s demotion of Shane Reti was inevitable. Reti’s attempt at a re-assuring bedside manner always did have a limited shelf life, and he would have been a poor and apologetic salesman on the campaign trail next year. As a trained doctor, he had every reason to be looking embarrassed about ...
A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, January 12, 2025 thru Sat, January 18, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
After another substantial hiatus from online Chess, I’ve been taking it up again. I am genuinely terrible at five-minute Blitz, what with the tight time constraints, though I periodically con myself into thinking that I have been improving. But seeing as my past foray into Chess led to me having ...
Rise up o children wont you dance with meRise up little children come and set me freeRise little ones riseNo shame no fearDon't you know who I amSongwriter: Rebecca Laurel FountainI’m sure you know the go with this format. Some memories, some questions, letsss go…2015A decade ago, I made the ...
In 2017, when Ghahraman was elected to Parliament as a Green MP, she recounted both the highlights and challenges of her role -There was love, support, and encouragement.And on the flipside, there was intense, visceral and unchecked hate.That came with violent threats - many of them. More on that later.People ...
It gives me the biggest kick to learn that something I’ve enthused about has been enough to make you say Go on then, I'm going to do it. The e-bikes, the hearing aids, the prostate health, the cheese puffs. And now the solar power. Yes! Happy to share the details.We ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Can CO2 be ...
The old bastard left his ties and his suitA brown box, mothballs and bowling shoesAnd his opinion so you'd never have to choosePretty soon, you'll be an old bastard tooYou get smaller as the world gets bigThe more you know you know you don't know shit"The whiz man" will never ...
..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.The Numbers2024 could easily have been National’s “Annus Horribilis” and 2025 shows no signs of a reprieve for our Landlord PM Chris Luxon and his inept Finance Minister Nikki “Noboats” Willis.Several polls last year ...
This Friday afternoon, Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced an overhaul of the Waitangi Tribunal.The government has effectively cleared house - appointing 8 new members - and combined with October’s appointment of former ACT leader Richard Prebble, that’s 9 appointees.[I am not certain, but can only presume, Prebble went in ...
The state of the current economy may be similar to when National left office in 2017.In December, a couple of days after the Treasury released its 2024 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HEYFU24), Statistics New Zealand reported its estimate for volume GDP for the previous September 24 quarter. Instead ...
So what becomes of you, my love?When they have finally stripped you ofThe handbags and the gladragsThat your poor old granddadHad to sweat to buy you, babySongwriter: Mike D'aboIn yesterday’s newsletter, I expressed sadness at seeing Golriz Ghahraman back on the front pages for shoplifting. As someone who is no ...
It’s Friday and time for another roundup of things that caught our attention this week. This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew and made possible by generous donations from our readers and fans. If you’d like to support our work, you can join ...
Note: This Webworm discusses sexual assault and rape. Please read with care.Hi,A few weeks ago I reported on how one of New Zealand’s richest men, Nick Mowbray (he and his brother own Zuru and are worth an estimated $20 billion), had taken to sharing posts by a British man called ...
The final Atlas Network playbook puzzle piece is here, and it slipped in to Aotearoa New Zealand with little fan fare or attention. The implications are stark.Today, writes Dr Bex, the submission for the Crimes (Countering Foreign Interference) Amendment Bill closes: 11:59pm January 16, 2025.As usual, the language of the ...
Excitement in the seaside village! Look what might be coming! 400 million dollars worth of investment! In the very beating heart of the village! Are we excited and eager to see this happen, what with every last bank branch gone and shops sitting forlornly quiet awaiting a customer?Yes please, apply ...
Much discussion has been held over the Regulatory Standards Bill (RSB), the latest in a series of rightwing attempts to enshrine into law pro-market precepts such as the primacy of private property ownership. Underneath the good governance and economic efficiency gobbledegook language of the Bill is an interest to strip ...
We are concerned that the Amendment Bill, as proposed, could impair the operations and legitimate interests of the NZ Trade Union movement. It is also likely to negatively impact the ability of other civil society actors to conduct their affairs without the threat of criminal sanctions. We ask that ...
I can't take itHow could I fake it?How could I fake it?And I can't take itHow could I fake it?How could I fake it?Song: The Lonely Biscuits.“A bit nippy”, I thought when I woke this morning, and then, soon after that, I wondered whether hell had frozen over. Dear friends, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Asheville, North Carolina, was once widely considered a climate haven thanks to its elevated, inland location and cooler temperatures than much of the Southeast. Then came the catastrophic floods of Hurricane Helene in September 2024. It was a stark reminder that nowhere is safe from ...
Early reports indicate that the temporary Israel/Hamas ceasefire deal (due to take effect on Sunday) will allow for the gradual release of groups of Israeli hostages, the release of an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails (likely only a fraction of the total incarcerated population), and the withdrawal ...
My daily news diet is not what it once was.It was the TV news that lost me first. Too infantilising, too breathless, too frustrating.The Herald was next. You could look past the reactionary framing while it was being a decent newspaper of record, but once Shayne Currie began unleashing all ...
Hit the road Jack and don't you come backNo more, no more, no more, no moreHit the road Jack and don't you come back no moreWhat you say?Songwriters: Percy MayfieldMorena,I keep many of my posts, like this one, paywall-free so that everyone can read them.However, please consider supporting me as ...
This might be the longest delay between reading (or in this case re-reading) a work, and actually writing a review of it I have ever managed. Indeed, when I last read these books in December 2022, I was not planning on writing anything about them… but as A Phuulish Fellow ...
Kia Ora,I try to keep most my posts without a paywall for public interest journalism purposes. However, if you can afford to, please consider supporting me as a paid subscriber and/or supporting over at Ko-Fi. That will help me to continue, and to keep spending time on the work. Embarrassingly, ...
There was a time when Google was the best thing in my world. I was an early adopter of their AdWords program and boy did I like what it did for my business. It put rocket fuel in it, is what it did. For every dollar I spent, those ads ...
A while back I was engaged in an unpleasant exchange with a leader of the most well-known NZ anti-vax group and several like-minded trolls. I had responded to a racist meme on social media in which a rightwing podcaster in the US interviewed one of the leaders of the Proud ...
Hi,If you’ve been reading Webworm for a while, you’ll be familiar with Anna Wilding. Between 2020 and 2021 I looked at how the New Zealander had managed to weasel her way into countless news stories over the years, often with very little proof any of it had actually happened. When ...
It's a long white cloud for you, baby; staying together alwaysSummertime in AotearoaWhere the sunshine kisses the water, we will find it alwaysSummertime in AotearoaYeah, it′s SummertimeIt's SummertimeWriters: Codi Wehi Ngatai, Moresby Kainuku, Pipiwharauroa Campbell, Taulutoa Michael Schuster, Rebekah Jane Brady, Te Naawe Jordan Muturangi Tupe, Thomas Edward Scrase.Many of ...
Last year, 292 people died unnecessarily on our roads. That is the lowest result in over a decade and only the fourth time in the last 70 years we’ve seen fewer than 300 deaths in a calendar year. Yet, while it is 292 people too many, with each death being ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob HensonFlames from the Palisades Fire burn a building at Sunset Boulevard amid a powerful windstorm on January 8, 2025 in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. The fast-moving wildfire had destroyed thousands of structures and ...
..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.The Regulatory Standards Bill, as I understand it, seeks to bind parliament to a specific range of law-making.For example, it seems to ensure primacy of individual rights over that of community, environment, te Tiriti ...
Happy New Year!I had a lovely break, thanks very much for asking: friends, family, sunshine, books, podcasts, refreshing swims, barbecues, bike rides. So good to step away from the firehose for a while, to have less Trump and Seymour in your day. Who needs the Luxons in their risible PJs ...
Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the Auckland City Centre Advisory Panel and a director of Greater Auckland In 2003, after much argument, including the election of a Mayor in 2001 who ran on stopping it, Britomart train station in downtown Auckland opened. A mere 1km twin track terminating branch ...
For the first time in a decade, a New Zealand Prime Minister is heading to the Middle East. The trip is more than just a courtesy call. New Zealand PMs frequently change planes in Dubai en route to destinations elsewhere. But Christopher Luxon’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, January 5, 2025 thru Sat, January 11, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
The decade between 1952 and the early 1960s was the peak period for the style of music we now call doo wop, after which it got dissolved into soul music, girl groups, and within pop music in general. Basically, doo wop was a form of small group harmonising with a ...
The future teaches you to be aloneThe present to be afraid and coldSo if I can shoot rabbits, then I can shoot fascists…And if you tolerate thisThen your children will be nextSongwriters: James Dean Bradfield / Sean Anthony Moore / Nicholas Allen Jones.Do you remember at school, studying the rise ...
When National won the New Zealand election in 2023, one of the first to congratulate Luxon was tech-billionaire and entrepreneur extraordinaire Elon Musk.And last year, after Luxon posted a video about a trip to Malaysia, Musk came forward again to heap praise on Christopher:So it was perhaps par for the ...
Hi,Today’s Webworm features a new short film from documentary maker Giorgio Angelini. It’s about Luigi Mangione — but it’s also, really, about everything in America right now.Bear with me.Shortly after I sent out my last missive from the fires on Wednesday, one broke out a little too close to home ...
So soon just after you've goneMy senses sharpenBut it always takes so damn longBefore I feel how much my eyes have darkenedFear hangs in a plane of gun smokeDrifting in our roomSo easy to disturb, with a thought, with a whisperWith a careless memorySongwriters: Andy Taylor / John Taylor / ...
Can we trust the Trump cabinet to act in the public interest?Nine of Trump’s closest advisers are billionaires. Their total net worth is in excess of $US375b (providing there is not a share-market crash). In contrast, the total net worth of Trump’s first Cabinet was about $6b. (Joe Biden’s Cabinet ...
Welcome back to our weekly roundup. We hope you had a good break (if you had one). Here’s a few of the stories that caught our attention over the last few weeks. This holiday period on Greater Auckland Since our last roundup we’ve: Taken a look back at ...
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to stand firm and work with allies to progress climate action as Donald Trump signals his intent to pull out of the Paris Climate Accords once again. ...
The Green Party has welcomed the provisional ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and reiterated its call for New Zealand to push for an end to the unlawful occupation of Palestine. ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
COMMENTARY:By Saige England Celebration time. Some Palestinian prisoners have been released. A mother reunited with her daughter. A young mother reunited with her babies. Still in prison are people who never received a fair trial, people that independent inquirers say are wrongly imprisoned. Still in prison kids who cursed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong On his first day in office, Donald Trump launched his second term with a barrage of executive orders. Unsurprisingly, many could have a major impact on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Macquarie University Nial Wheate Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) recently issued a safety alert requiring extra warnings to be included with the asthma and hay fever drug montelukast. The warnings are for users and their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carolina Quintero Rodriguez, Senior Lecturer and Program Manager, Bachelor of Fashion (Enterprise) program, RMIT University When a tennis player serves at 200km/h in 30°C heat, their clothing isn’t just fabric. It becomes a key part of their performance. Modern tennis wear ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jayashri Kulkarni, Professor of Psychiatry, Monash University Last week, Australian Open player Destanee Aiava revealed she had struggled with borderline personality disorder. The tennis player said a formal diagnosis, after suicidal behaviour and severe panic attacks, “was a relief”. But “it ...
Research methods in this project included healing Kauri trees through using "sonic samples of healthy whales to construct a tapestry of rejuvenation and wellbeing.” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Hume, Lecturer In Theatre (Voice), Victorian College of the Arts, The University of Melbourne A24 The Brutalist has drawn attention this week for its use of artificial intelligence (AI) to refine some of the actors’ dialogue. Emilia Pérez, a ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Books Confessional, in which we get to know the reading habits of Aotearoa’s writers, and other guests. This week: Jenny Pattrick, playwright of Hope, which runs at Circa Theatre from January 25 – February 23.The book I wish I’d writtenHow to choose? Let’s say ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson and Lilomaiava Maina Vai The Speaker of the House, Papali’i Li’o Taeu Masipau, decisively addressed a letter from FAST, which informed him of the removal of Fiame along with Deputy Prime Minister Tuala Tevaga Ponifasio, Leatinu’u Wayne Fong, Olo Fiti Vaai, Faualo Harry Schuster, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Marie Brennan, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Waikato Shutterstock/KV4000 Every day, about 48.5 tonnes of space rock hurtle towards Earth. Meteorites that fall into the ocean are never recovered. But the ones that crash on land can spark debates ...
New year, same friendly local politics podcast. The political year kicked off with a dramatic reshuffle that sees Shane Reti removed from health in favour of Simeon Brown, James Meager made minister for the fiefdom that is the South Island and Nicola Willis in the renamed role of minister for ...
Alex Casey and Tara Ward assemble a list of demands for James Meager, the first minister for the South Island. South islanders, rejoice, for there is now one man dedicated to ensuring that each and every 1,260,000 of us has our voices heard in parliament. This week Rangitata MP James ...
COMMENTARY:By Steven Cowan, editor of Against The Current New Zealand’s One News interviewed a Gaza journalist last week who has called out the Western media for its complicity in genocide. For some 15 months, the Western media have framed Israel’s genocidal rampage in Gaza as a “legitimate” war. Pretending ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the government has been taking the problem of economic growth seriously, and its work on that so far has been "significant". ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marta Yebra, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Australian National University Picture this. It’s a summer evening in Australia. A dry lightning storm is about to sweep across remote, tinder-dry bushland. The next day is forecast to be hot and windy. A lightning strike ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher, Digital Literacy and Digital Wellbeing, Western Sydney University Wachiwit/Shutterstock Roblox isn’t just another video game – it’s a massive virtual universe where nearly 90 million people from around the world create, play and socialise. This includes some 34 ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University Dragana Gordic/Shutterstock Anecdotal reports from some professionals have prompted concerns about young people using prescription benzodiazepines such as Xanax for recreational use. Border force detections of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judy Lundy, Lecturer in Management, Edith Cowan University Vitalii Vodolazskyi/Shutterstock It’s been a significant day for diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs in the United States. Such initiatives are about providing equality of opportunity and a sense of being valued ...
Filmmaker Ahmed Osman reflects on the many challenges the screen industry is facing this year – and what needs to change. I grew up in front of the TV. For me, it was more than just background noise: it was connection. Shows like bro’Town, Street Legal, and Outrageous Fortune weren’t ...
The government last year created a new Ministry for Regulation, with ACT leader David Seymour in charge, to review regulations and, in Seymour’s words, “to look for red tape to cut.” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kimberley Connor, Postdoctoral Scholar at Stanford Archaeology Center, Stanford University Sydney’s Hyde Park Barracks photographed in 1871, when the building served as a women’s immigration depot and asylum.City of Sydney Archives. Sydney’s Hyde Park Barracks was built between 1817 and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University NASA/Earth Observatory, CC BY-SA It’s now official. Last year was the warmest year on record globally and the first to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This doesn’t mean ...
Analysis - The political year is kicking off with a flurry of gatherings and speeches after the Prime Minister used Wellington Anniversary weekend to get his team in order. ...
There’s been a major shake-up at the Waitangi Tribunal, with more than half of the current members, including some esteemed Māori academics, losing their places to make way for some controversial new appointments.Established in 1975, the Waitangi Tribunal investigates alleged Crown breaches of the promises made to Māori in ...
PFAS chemicals are omnipresent, enduring, and almost certainly in your bloodstream. Here’s a guide to where they come from, why there are concerns about their use and what regulations are in place to help you avoid exposure. Your raincoat, beading with water. The slippery smooth surface of your non-stick pans. ...
Prime Minister Christoper Luxon has turned Finance Minister Nicola Willis into a ‘super minister’ by adding the rebranded economic portfolio to her plate and bolstering her ability to implement change.Luxon announced his decision to appoint Nicola Willis to the role of Minister for Economic Growth as part of a wider ...
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When I reflect on my life, I look at how everything changed on the evening of June 22, 1970.I was lying in bed when the phone went late one night. My father picked it up. He was on the phone for what seemed like an eternity, and I could tell ...
Opinion: After an exhaustive period of consultation spanning almost two years, the Privacy Commissioner, in the week before Christmas, released the draft version of the Biometric Processing Privacy Code he intends to issue under the Privacy Act.Biometric information, collected through the likes of facial recognition technology, is personal information covered ...
Opinion: With a freshly minted transport minister taking the helm this week, it’s a good time to consider why we lack a fair and objective conversation about transport in New Zealand.The main reason for opposing investment in public transport and rail is that these modes reduce the reliance on and ...
After 23 years following a black line at the bottom of a swimming pool, Aquablack and Olympian Helena Gasson has retired from competitive swimming on her terms.She now wants to share her expertise and give back to the sport after being the only New Zealander to compete at an Oceania ...
“Don’t talk about the war”
Obama and Romney come to an agreement on Climate Change.
They both agree not to talk about it.
However despite Obama and Romney’s gentlmen’s agreement to keep silent on climate change. An opposite and more forthright agreement to openly discuss climate change is developing among lower ranked US political leaders.
After ‘Sandy’ the possibility of an East Coast, if not nation wide bipartisan political consensus to tackle climate change is beginning to emerge.
Actually no one can reliably say how much of ‘Sandy’ is attributable to climate change man made or otherwise.
Regardless the POTUS will do whatever their lobbyists and pollsters tell them to do.
As will all the primary and Presidential candidates. ‘Leadership’ is DEAD.
Agreed. They also cannot say how much of “Sandy” is attributable to solar flares, warm water, ocean gods, or some guy mooning the latter from the beach.
Your statement is meaningless because everything is statistically based and an absolute level of confidience is something that science leaves for matters of religous faith.
Are you trying to make some point ?
Sometimes it’s difficult to tell with one who is so erudite. Remember not all of us have the vast repository of knowledge that you have.
I understood his point.
Have to say, the bickering is getting boring.
As lprent stated … it is a matter of probability.
Imagine that the actuarial tables on mortality state that a man of your age has a say 1 in 50 probability of dying this year. Does this ‘reliably’ inform us whether you will be alive at the end of the year or not?
Of course not.
The only sense in which such tables are meaningful are when you examine (or sample) a whole lot of men of your age. If for example you sampled say 1000 men, then you could be fairly sure that 20 of them might not make it to the end of the year. But it tells you nothing about each individual man.
In the same way science can reliably predict that increased ocean temperatures and more water vapour in the atmosphere will increase the probability of more frequent severe storms, and increase their peak intensity. It doesn’t reliably tell you anything much about an individual storm. Instead you have to wait until you’ve had many dozens of storms like Sandy before we can confirm the statistical prediction reliably.
Of course the insurance industry might well spit the dummy at funding such an extended and expensive experiment. The death toll might prove a bit of an irritation too.
There is a fair amount of data available regarding the recent storm in the US all one can say is only that some of its components may have been due to climate change.
The late-season formation may have been influenced by a shifting climate, but its meet-up with an early North American winter storm had no climate change connection.
A high-pressure blocking event, which may have been climate change-related, steered the storm toward the East Coast rather than out to sea.
Unusually high tides amplified the storm surge and flooding, but the tides had nothing to do with climate change. And the fact that those four events happened simultaneously was just a very unfortunate coincidence.
Warmer temperatures, which allowed the storm to carry more moisture, and higher sea level are likely to have amplified its effects. The higher sea level — a foot higher than when the city’s protective sea walls were built a century ago can almost certainly be attributed to climate change.
hs…a solid assessment.
It’s not mine it’s Scientific American’s.
So if I read what you are saying, then you agree that man-made climate change is real and is fast becoming a significant component of severe and adverse weather events?
And going back to your first point; that the barrier to doing anything about it is political … and always has been.
Update:
Just in case someone hasn’t got it yet :
No.
That was your opportunity to explain what you did mean. Wanna try again?
Only this time without the unattributed cut and paste please.
In other words, climate change affects existing weather and how it intersects with other phenomena like geography, tides and time. Isn’t that a given already?
I would have thought so.
Hs: Your second and third paragraph are in direct contradiction with each other.
The reason this particular storm came onshore at that latitude rather than doing the usual wander into the Atlantic was because it was blocked by a northern jetstream coming lower in latitude than usual.
If you look at the historic tracks for hurricanes at that latitude you will see that it is almost unknown for them to turn inland. If you look at the historic tracks of the jetstreams you will see that they seldom come down far enough to block which provides the room for hurricanes driven by the otherwise minor effect of the earths rotation to move east .
The physics of arctic warming when modeled indicate that the jetstreams will have a higher amplitude, and over the last decade that is exactly what has been seen. So it becomes a higher probability that there will be offshore blocking events driving hurricanes into the upper eastern seaboard of the US. That also increases the probability of hitting cold fronts being spun out of the arctic by those same jetstreams and following that same rotational spin towards the east (frontal systems have quite predictable tracks as well when they don’t get blocked).
It isn’t coincidental. It will probably become more and more obvious through the rest of this current weather cycle for the next few years, then it will reduce in probability as the rate of the deicing of the arctic wanes and the atmosphere shifts to a new equilibrium. It will then resume in the 2020’s.
What the SA was saying was that the degree of the impact of climate change on that storm wasn’t proveable yet (although highly likely) because it takes a number of events to get a statistical sample sufficient to establish confidience. By the time that there is the required confidience, the east coast will have developed good hurricane systems anyway – they will have had received quite a few – probably 10 or more to get to a 90% confidience level that there has been a shift in the high latitude hurricane tracks.
Reductionism of the type you were repeating has it’s place in science, but in weather and climate systems you really have to look at the whole because the effects work on each other in a much more complex set of interactions.
Thanks 1prent. Most people view the weather as a surface event only but it is not. What goes on in the upper atmosphere plays a major role in how things turn out at the surface. In recent decades the polar jets (both North and South) have been tracking further into lower latitudes than has hitherto been the case. When this happens and cold air from those upper level jet streams feed into warmer surface cyclonic weather systems then you can expect further cyclonic generation to occur. It is certainly due to global warming, and as a consequence… expect to see deeper and more frequent tropical cyclonic events occurring in the Southern Pacific region too.
Tell it Scientific American.
It is their article I was quoting but perhaps you should send them a letter what with your earth sciences BSc I’m sure you’re far more erudite than any of their contributors and with your computer skills you’d be able to model weather events with far greater reliability than anyone else has to date.
Can we have a link please? I tried a random cut and paste of your post in google and go no hits.
It’s in the very first comment of the thread.
Read your own reference hs;
Warmer temperatures, which allowed the storm to carry more moisture, and higher sea level are likely to have amplified its effects.
which is pretty much congruent with what we are saying.
Yes, there’s no denying that.
What can be denied is the youtube video you have linked to with alarmist comments suggests a warming of 6 or more degrees C in the next few decades.
What can be denied is the youtube video you have linked to with alarmist comments suggests a warming of 6 or more degrees C in the next few decades.
You’ve not been keeping up. The video was quoting the IEA:
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/04/27/IEA-warns-of-doubled-CO2-emissions/UPI-62511335522600/#ixzz2BEWQKE7U
While it’s true that some years ago, 6 degrees was considered a fringe ‘worst-case’ scenario, as with so many other things around climate science, it’s rapidly become a lot more main-stream.
Title: Climate Change Deniers
Definition: The CCDs argue that climate change is not real and is not happening. CCDS explain the controversy is a result of global conspiracy deliberately concocted by scientists politicians and media, unfortunately they have not been able to give any rational explanation of the reasons for this conspiracy.
Current Status: The CCDs are Pretty much at the fringes of the current debate on climate change
Title: Climate Change Apologists
Definition: CCAs admit that climate change is happening, but say that jobs, profits, the economy and growth, and a myriad other issues are far more important than taking steps to address climate change. The apologists are also adept at blaming or scapegoating others, usually groups that they have taken a dislike to anyway. This group are quite comfortable with the idea of millions if not billions of human deaths, as well as the destruction of entire eco systems and the resulting animal and plant extinctions. Their previously listed preoccupations are considered far more important.
Current status: The most sinister, cynical and dangerous of the different Climate Change factions. Currently the CCAs are the main spear carriers for doing nothing about climate change
And now a third category has arisen:
Title: Climate Change Ignorers
Definition: Political leaders and parties who refuse to even mention Climate Change, if they can avoid it. Usually for sectarian political advantage, ie not scare the horses, not look too radical in the eyes of the voters, not offend vested interest etc etc.
Rather than alert the electorate and the wider population to the danger, the CCIs put getting bums on seats for their particular sectarian grouping more important than even alerting their political rivals who could steal a policy march on them.
The whole topic of Climate Change is a ‘no go area’ for these politicians. They will rarely if ever mention the subject of Climate Change unless it is pushed right up under their noses, and often not even then. If forced to mention Climate Change CCIs say that one day when they are in complete control of the presidency and the congress, or have the most seats in the house of parliament then they will call for action on Climate Change. CCIs neither deny, or apologise for climate change, they just simply ignore it.
Current Status: The most ridiculous and laughable faction of all, I don’t expect it to last long.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10844736
So Nationals as bad as Labour?
Being connected to the internal network is definitely a security breach waiting to happen, but I find it hard to believe that such an obvious problem went unnoticed for 13 years, yet within 1 year of the new kiosks being set up it was discovered on at least 2 separate occasions (that we know of).
Therefore, I suggest, that although the old computers may have been connected to the internal network, they did not exhibit the same basic security breach (that is, navigating with an ‘open file’ dialog in Word would give you access to the entire network) probably through some configuration option that stopped it, which should also have been configured on the kiosks but wasn’t.
This means that the security was still incredibly lax and just waiting for someone malicious to exploit it, but this would have required a specific intent to do so by someone with the required skills, rather than any moderately-knowledgeable office worker with Microsoft Office skills being able to find it.
In short, no, the evidence would suggest that National is worse than Labour.
So in a race to the bottom Nationals leading?
ACT already won it
Not sure in what way that would be surprising.
That depends. I’d like to see the report. But on the face of it, MSD under National were told, at least twice, that there was a serious problem and to fix it, and that advice was ignored. What happened under Labour? I don’t think we know yet.
Oh look a Slater repeater …
AAAHHHHH I’M blind…………. Slater on TV before morning coffee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Just think how much more influential hes going to become…most popular blog, newspaper editor, tv columnist
Muwahahahahaha!
You’re channeling WO’s inner fantasys now…break the link before it’s TOO LATE!!!
What a comedy Whaleoil trying to justify his editorial prowess. Oh well at least the Greengrocers will have something to wrap the lettuces in.
hmmm… so WO has just said on TV3 that his new rag is for the average NZ “bloke”. So revolutionary!
Considering the herald and dom post it actually is
Says so much about his myopic view of our society and how he thinks he’ll ‘add value’.
Talk about give a bigot RWNJ, with established psych issues, an even bigger soapbox to indoctrinate the frogs with, last roll of the dice for the truth IMO.
if they can’t boost the circulation appealing with dog whistles they are history like so may publications are already.
Hey left-wing types are more than welcome to start up/take over a newspaper to get their views out there
Well in fact that is what needs to be done, newspapers and other news media channels.
so do it
OK mate, but only because you said so!!! We could do with a $5K donation from you.
Yeah right, who’d want to read that
You were all for the idea a moment ago!
It’d only sell at union sites (well maybe they need to be a bit more careful with the money…) but it might put a stop to the rampant jealousy of whaleoil…
Why would it only sell at union sites?
400,000 union members, potential for more than 20x the circulation of Truth, Not bad eh.
“You were all for the idea a moment ago!”
No they weren’t.
Well, I know that and you know that 🙂
Sunday morning tr*lls, what can you do?
So with a readership of what 25000 ? There’s not many “Average NZ blokes” out there, that want to waste their money on that rag.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/maritime-union-asked-explain-accounts-lf-131705
Interesting…
Rortney Hide on the financial transparency war path! Has Rortney come clean on his girlfriend’s parliamentary travel perks yet? Or his flash international hotel stays?
Yep thats sorted it, good plan
Well, when Rodney Hide advocates that all business financial dealings become public (which I believe should happen anyway) then he’ll have a point.
Funny this. Wonder about their credibility?
The annual Legatum Prosperity Index has ranked New Zealand as the fifth most prosperous country in the world overall, and first in the education category.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10845034
Just another RWNJ think-tank by the looks of things.
Yeah Draco. Bluddy right wing nobs. They say that they are: ” Legatum Institute (LI) is an independent non-partisan public policy organisation whose research, publications, and programmes advance ideas and policies in support of free and prosperous societies around the world.”
Must be a trick in there somewhere. I expect Parata will now quote the claim that NZ is “first in the World Education” as being the product and vision of her leadership. Yeah Right!
Their credibility? In their own words, “…we have a vision of a more prosperous world based on greater economic and political liberty balanced with personal and institutional responsibility.”
So, free markets and personal responsibility and political liberty that is probably measured in terms of consumer choice and institutional responsibility measured in terms of protecting a market ‘free for all’ and keeping pesky citizens who want more political freedom than mere consumer choice firmly in line.
Chalupabot, your count is getting too high. 18.4% of all comments on this site in the last 48 hours have been made using your handle. As you know, the limit to avoid unwanted attention is 9.7%
Please return to an acceptable ratio or use some of your other handles.
Wow, where can you go to see those stats, felix?
I pulled them out of Chalupa’s arse.
I changed to Chalupa Batman because of the league, you really should watch it
CHRISTOPHER!
The league commissioners ruling is final!
Heh, yeah great show.
http://www.silvergoldsilver.com/entry/qe-sandy
Quote:
“One sentence post: Is the next QE bailout masked to be a Sandy bailout for the insurers?”
Good question SGS. Probably.
Interesting boots on the ground report of the chaos that is Sandy. Disturbingly there are still Americans full of the belief that someone will rescue them, so they don’t need to prep.
Give it a week and that attitude will be wiped out – at least in affected areas. We would do well to heed their experience.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4293/guest-post-ground-nyc-green-lantern
New York City authorities have been doing an amazing job of getting things going again. It reminds me of what a great hard working nation America was.
As for the “preppers” anyone who is serious about that would not be living in NYC or New Jersey.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10844971
Fuck Tui and their fatphobic, culture-manipulative, body-hating excuse of an ad agency.
+1 to your last sentence!
Fuckin’ A, weka. Tui can sometimes be actually funny but the rest of the time it’s just embarrassing the way their marketing team’s rampant insecurities are put out their for the world to see …
Tui? Bad taste all round.
+1 Only a complete moron would drink that ferrets piss anyway. I guess with such despicable advertising that only a moron could like, DB Breweries is trying to appeal to their consumer base. An irreverent spin on topical issues… Yeah right! It’s defamatory rubbish that many New Zealanders will be offended at.
Absolutely agreed. That billboard is vicious.
Yep. One Tui billboard in ten might actually be funny. Unless Jarrod Bear is willing to put a photo of him/herself and partner on a billboard, he/she should just shut up.
Tui can still be proud of producing such an awesome beer though. Yeah right.
It’s no surprise that Fran O Sullivan is a detestable old right wing battleaxe, but this shallow article endorsing Romney really had me flabbergasted http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10844776
I find it an embarrassment that our supposed premiere newspaper prints this rubbish *facepalms*
Yes Fran O Cyclops has really lost the plot, or that article was intended to be a job application to join the (non) Truth. ( I see production problems looming with frequent web-breaks* due to slaters being keen to feast on rotting paper)
*web-breaks is printers jargon for the reel of paper snapping when press is running
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2012/11/cunliffe-learning-to-lie-already/
Do we believe Cactus or Cunliffe? Though to be fair to Cunliffe it did sound really boring.
I’m sorry I clicked that. But I guess it was time for my annual reminder of how pathetic “evidence” has to be for WO to treat it as hard-hitting gospel.
(For those who don’t wish to click: Hamish Keith tweets “why no Labour MPs at Fabians”, Cunliffe tweets “sorry, I had a cold”, Cactus responds “you didn’t look sick when I saw you in town today!” It’s fucking riveting journalism, Keith Ng should take note of how it’s really done.)
Editorial standards at Truth are going up already. Up in smoke.
Well someones lying, who do you think it is?
Maybe he was sick enough that he couldn’t attend a major function and put on his future-labour leader face….but he was well enough to get up for a meal.
A few weeks back I wasn’t feeling well enough to get over the other side of town for a meeting, but I could get down to the supermarket.
You need to stop letting whaleoil think for you chalupa batman, you can probably do better with your own brain
Exactly. There’s no reason anyone has to be deliberately lying, it’s just bullshit for Cactus/WO to act like one non-medical professional’s opinion of how a person looks has any bearing on their actual state of health.
Could’ve been worse – he might have been seen fixing his roof.
Yep. It’s not like Cunliffe was painting his roof.
Edit: DoS beats me to the punchline!
That’s some desperate stuff. Even for those wretches.
Is Cactus Kate a qualified medical doctor as well as a lawyer?
I’m sure the Fabians would approach Cunliffe if they had a reason.
Everyone’s working toward the same goal etc.
When it comes down to doing something concrete is when we’ll see them talking.
Probably as well qualified as LPRENT I guess…
classic whaloil…jeeze, the tories really are scared of cunliffe
One should always take with a great deal of cynicism anything that Slater says about Cunliffe. I am interested in his obsession with DC, obviously he thinks that Cunliffe is a threat to the right and needs to be attacked at every opportunity.
The reality is that David is crook. He pulled out of some no asset sales petition campaigning that was arranged for this morning and this afternoon he is missing an important party fundraiser. I have spoken to him a couple of times and he sounds sick as.
Oh yes, it’s been amusing – Richard Long begging Shearer not to reshuffle, Hooters saying that really, David Shearer needs more support and Cunliffe should be sacked while Farrar, knowing that Shearer’s a lost cause, suggests the next waste of space, Robertson.
All of them presenting themselves as sensible voices of reason – just like Pete George, come to think of it.
Alas, the Right and their shills know what they want and make it clear…
Did you hear Hoots on the wireless slagging Cunliffe off this week? Really vicious, nasty stuff.
They’re all terrified. As they should be.
Now I was under the impression that, that vindictive old bat lived in Hong Kong. So HOW could she see Cunliffe in town? Also when I had the flu, I still had to go out, and people probably from looking at me didn’t realise I was screwing up their lives for the 3 weeks it takes to get over the flu. And anyway, anything Whaleshit says, needs to be checked, rechecked, verified, with at least 10 other neutral people. And I still WILL NOT believe a word he vomits.
Do I believe Cactus is a demented stalker? Yeah, I do.
Are you tired of the US election yet? Abby sure is! I hope her mom votes for Bronco Bamma anyway 😉
Rodney Hide’s Union bashing fetish
There’s been a lot of disinformation being promoted by the right wing at the moment concerning Unions. In fact if you didn’t know the real reasons behind what propagandists like David Farrar, Cameron Slater and Rodney Hide were saying, you might believe that Unions are an evil blight on society…
Or they could just follow the rules…
Do you mean the Unions should follow the rules or the NBR should adhere to publication laws Chalupa Batman? The Unions have followed the rules. The NBR hasn’t because it’s publishing inaccuracies based on Hides speculation. There has been no finding of wrongdoing on the part of the Unions. Clearly the NBR has again breached publication laws by promoting defamatory and inaccurate speculation.
More time & money wasted because someone has an axe to grind ….. no other reason.
Good article Jackal, I’d like to see these dropkicks getting their asses sued for defamation by the Unions concerned.
Hide should find a rock and invite those other creeps to join him in entombment.
Thanks fender. You’re clearly talking about Act’s standard retirement package… Slithering under a rock is the best place for the likes of the unlawful David Garrett, John Banks and the rest of the deluded Actoids. What a bunch of worms!
How about this then, we wait for Neville Harris to decide whats what and if in the unlikely event theres nothing I’ll apoligise. Of course once something dodgy has been uncovered we’ll expect an apology from you?
Apologize for saying that there’s been no finding of any wrongdoing? Get off the grass Chalupa. Just like Affco’s complaint to the Serious Fraud Office, the Companies Office won’t find anything unlawful either. That’s because Rodney Hide is full of shit, and always has been.
I’ve said I’ll apoligise if theres nothing found, will you apoligise if something is found?
You want me to say I’ll apologize about a what if? How retarded!
The claims by Hide and Slater that the Maritime and Meatworkers Union’s are hiding and misspending millions of dollars of their members money are in the present tense false. There is no evidence, I repeat no evidence of this. They’re speculating and then trying to say their assumptions are facts.
I think QoT summed it up nicely today when she wrote:
In my opinion, the same can be said about the deplorable Rodney Hide as well.
Hunter S. Thompson was onto that trick long ago, relating an anecdote about Lyndon Johnson wanting stories about his opponent fucking pigs to be promulgated. When his advisors were shocked (this was a more innocent time), saying that there was no evidence, Johnson retorted, “I want him up there denying that he fucks pigs!”
😀
So thats a no, not even willing to put up an apology if something is found (which you strenuously deny any possibility of)
Hide’s article’s aren’t about if something is found, he’s saying they’re already guilty even though there’s no evidence of this. My article is about Hide and Slater’s baseless propaganda, which is a fact. Therefore I won’t be apologizing to you Chalupa Batman.
Oh for gods sake CB will you just get over it, your tiny mind has obviously been overloaded with this discussion, other wise you would be writing something of substance and value instead of repeating Whaleshit’s propaganda, and wanting an apology to a non existent wet dream you once had?
CB is is full of BS and is thick as bat shit
strenuously
Hey, congrats on getting that ticked off your Big Word of the Day checklist!
Thank you, one tries to improve ones vocabulary
Perhaps the next word you want to learn about is Sarcasm Chalupa Batman.
One might also work on one’s punctuation :p
The dodgy has already been uncovered – it’s Hide and WO.
Not really, but then again I believe that David Farrar, Cameron Slater, and Rodney Hide, are all an evil blight on our society
A Day In The Life Of Rodney Hide
Great work Jackal. Because for us all that would be left otherwise with just the slur. Will watch developments.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/video-whaleoil-goes-mainstream-ck-131794#
MY COMMENT – YET TO BE PUBLISHED:
If Cameron Slater is ‘no holds barred’ in holding politicians ‘feet to the fire’ – what has he done to hold John Bank’s (and Don Brash’s) ‘feet to the fire’ over the ‘ONE LAW FOR ALL’ (that they both support) – not yet applying to them over Huljich?
(John Banks and Don Brash were both former Directors of Huljich Wealth Management (NZ) Ltd, and both signed Huljich Kiwisaver Registered Prospectuses dated 22 August 2008 and 18 September 2009 which contained untrue statements – a ‘strict liability’ offence under s.58(3) of the Securities Act.)
I formally requested the Finance Markets Authority (FMA), the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), and the NZ Police apply ‘ONE LAW FOR ALL’ to the former and current ACT Party Leaders.
When each of the above-mentioned put it in writing that they would do nothing, I petitioned Parliament for an urgent investigation. However – the national party dominated Commerce Select Committee also chose to do nothing.
At least I tried!
What has Cameron Slater done on this issue?)
Why has Cameron Slater banned me for commenting on his ‘Whaleoil’ blog – is he purports to support ‘freedom of expression’?
If staff at the ‘TRUTH’ are covered by employment law – how long is Cameron Slater going to last, as ‘TRUTH’ Editor?
(Kind regards Cameron – I’d be making this comment to you directly – on YOUR blog – if you hadn’t ‘banned’ me? 🙂
Penny Bright
‘Anti-corruption campaigner’
http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com
http://www.pennybright4epsom.org.nz
Why has Cameron Slater banned me for commenting on his ‘Whaleoil’ blog – is he purports to support ‘freedom of expression’?
– Probably because you posted long-winded, boring diatribes that basically had nothing to do with the thread, wouldn’t reply when challenged and ignored the warnings given
Good luck Penny in that.
Oh dear, Never mind.
Brothel vs Church
H/T Trevor Mallard through twitter
Bugger another rouge Poll?
No, another good poll.
Good because National/Key (there’s no difference) continue to fade. Plan A is finished, only Plan B will save them. There won’t be a “National plus electorate Righties” majority at the next election. Key’s been found out, and the voters are looking for alternatives.
Which brings us to National’s Plan B … a third term thanks to Labour fucking up. That’s their best hope now.
So again, a good poll because the (few) remaining Labour ostriches can’t keep those heads in the sand. As National’s support declines, voters will turn to the opposition that is not Labour. Like Winston, in this poll.
Unless Labour decide (finally) to do something about that.
Polls like this – and the last Roy Morgan one – make it more likely that they will. Good.
This one?
Taken in concert with the most recent roymorgan, beginning to be a bit concerning. The issue for labour is to get out of the low30s in CB polls and at the moment it seems pretty steady.
Link?
TV One
Labour dropped from 34% 6 weeks ago to 32% now.
During the time this poll was taken the following was going on:
-MSD privacy scandal
– The Government messing up on asset sales and Maori water rights
– Christchurch school screw ups
– Sweet talking its way through “No manufacturing crisis”
– Key being absolutely unbelievable and brain faded in the Dotcom/GCSB affair.
http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/national-support-holds-labour-slips-in-poll-5194717
I never watch TV these days but clicked through to get a taste of everything that’s not changed. Front of vid is a still picture of JK raising a glass (in the vid it coincides with him saying ‘cheers’). JK in a factory that’s still open! And (the only potentially dodgy one) in operating garb to a voice over about ‘the good health’ of the Nats. Shearer edited to be heard apparently taking advice from a fucking wizard. Shearer standing looking at derelict sites and (twice?) framed alongside a ‘No Public Access’ sign.
And less than 50% of those polled thinking the economy will improve is spun in a positive light!
Anyway. If a Shearer led Labour Party that does nothing but shoot itself in the foot and offer gift horses to the Nats is still over 30%, just imagine what a Labour Party could do.
And then the scare mongering begins about the prospect of a dysfunctional NZ1/Green/Labour coalition. Because we’re meant to believe that NZ1 wouldn’t go with the Nats!?
TV is staying in the ‘bad stuff’ cupboard.
Funny how TV1 says National can govern alone on 44%.
They ignore NZF because they are only on 4.9%.
Yet they count The Maori Party, Act, the Conservative Party and Mana who are all struggling to register.
So if you put Labour 32%, Greens 12%, NZF 4.9% = 48.9%.
This for the sake of discussion trumps National on the poll, doesn’t it?
Not all that good for Labour but not that bad either 2 years out from an election.
You’d think by now we would have a user-friendly web app for calculating various results. And that the MSM would be putting polls in those contexts.
Old fashioned I know, but I think the media’s job here is to report on the range of things that might happen (you know, actually inform people), rather than promoting one in particular. Would love to know how that editorial decision was made.
Ian, the reason they are counting MP, ACT, UF and Mana is because they’re all in parliament due to safe-ish electoral seats (except maybe UF). NZF is completely dependent on crossing the 5%.
Well actually there is a calculator for working out the allocated seats depending on vote percentages. It’s called the MMP seat allocation calculator. Of course the MSM can’t be bothered using it because it would mean they couldn’t peddle their propaganda.
You would increase or decrease the likelihood of certain MPs winning electoral seats on the previous election results in comparison to the percentage of current polling. Just assuming that the current incumbent MPs would retain their seats even though their party support has declined and then claiming the right wing would be able to form the next government is obviously wrong!
In fact it’s astounding just how arrogant the media is with its manipulations. They treat the public like fools!
Yes I know about that calculator, it’s just not very user friendly.
I’m not sure that there is such a direct correlation re the seats and previous/current polls, esp re the Maori Party/Mana seats. Have you done that calculation?
Right on, mac. It’s a Brolmar, and NACT’s desperate for good news. Take 10% off NAT, add 5% to Lab, have a good chortle at “add ACT and MP” and the ignoring of Winnie, and relax.