Open mike 06/09/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 6th, 2022 - 56 comments
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56 comments on “Open mike 06/09/2022 ”

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  1. Adrian Thornton 1
    6 September 2022 at 7:16 am

    Doesn’t really look like the US led sanctions on Russian are working out to well for the average citizen in Europe, in fact it is shaping up to be an unmitigated disaster for them…while, ironically, at the very same time, and as a direct result of those very same sanctions the Russians are making more money than they could have ever imagined…

    ….it almost seems like those sanctions were thought up, administered and enforced by a bunch of out of touch half-wits with about as much foresight as a bowl full of brain-dead goldfish…and yet we are told that this very same group of people are apparently the ‘leaders of the free world’…if that is true, then God help us.

  2. Ad 2
    6 September 2022 at 7:34 am

    As NZs first aerospace summit starts, the mean question is: why is NASA pushing ahead with Artemis after multiple decades out of the game, and the private sector long since taken over?

    Same applies to the NZ government contribution to our industry.

    To infinity and beyond surely no longer needs the taxpayer to shovel our cash into the engine.

    • DB Brown 2.1
      6 September 2022 at 7:42 am

      These grand schemes are vanity projects for the deluded and distracted to maintain their grip on fantasy – that all is well, that man has very big brains, and our future is guaranteed via destiny, or divine grace, or some other methane provisioning PR offering.

      Yes, humanity can multitask, but in an emergency surely resources should be put towards solving the emergency.

      It's like solving flooding on your Te Puke property by booking a flight to Hawaii. You might put in a decent drain and some sandbags for the same price – but the holiday snaps would suffer.

    • psych nurse 2.2
      6 September 2022 at 8:15 am

      Would it be, they want to be the first to put a man on the moon ?.

      • Sanctuary 2.2.1
        6 September 2022 at 12:17 pm

        Actually NASA want to put the first woman on the moon. The Artemis rocket exists for two reason. To leverage existing hardward and technology and because NASA is still the only orgnaisation which has an existing launch vehicle and the expertise to carry out lunar missions. For all his hot air Elon Musk's Starship hasn't even orbited the planet yet let alone had a crewed mission – putting his venture firmly in about where NASA was in around 1963.

        With the emerging new cold war with China it is important to the United States that they have immediately available a proven launch vehicle capable of taking humans to the moon, and this time sustaining them there, before the Chinese do. Artemis is meant to bridge the gap between now and the possible chimera of private space launch vehicles.

        As always, it is the government that will be doing the heavy lifting of proving technology and solving problems of lunar exploration and possible Mars missions on behalf of private corporations.

    • Stan 2.3
      6 September 2022 at 9:44 am

      Agreed. Artemis, though huge and impressive, is looking like it's a big expensive lemon. Despite being essentially an uprated cannaballised space shuttle, NASA just can't get the thing to work.

      And it's not even reusable, unlike what Spacex tries to do with their (even bigger) Starship.

      • Sanctuary 2.3.1
        6 September 2022 at 12:19 pm

        Artemis will cost around 100 billion US dollars over it's lifetime. That equates to about 10% of what the US spends on defense in a single year.

        • Ad 2.3.1.1
          6 September 2022 at 12:27 pm

          If it then makes sense for the NZ space industry to go for the bountiful $$ of US defence contract payloads, they're way ahead of you.

    • bwaghorn 2.4
      6 September 2022 at 11:39 am

      The useful a has to show China who's boss is why

  3. scotty 3
    6 September 2022 at 7:43 am

    I know Roy Morgan is unreliable , however Labour is in a pretty good position despite all the orchestrated BS thrown .

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9064-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2022-202209050524

    • Ad 3.1
      6 September 2022 at 8:47 am

      Maori Party is sucking votes off the Greens but not Labour.

      Nice to see competition on the hard left.

      • Stuart Munro 3.1.1
        6 September 2022 at 10:31 am

        Nice to see competition on the hard left.

        Re-education camps for the speculator class? Nationalizing the banks and stolen power companies? Compulsory unions?

        It would be nice to see a hard left – if only to shame fatuous abuse of the term.

    • Mac1 3.2
      6 September 2022 at 8:52 am

      Are women smarter or is it misogyny that explains the discrepancy in voting intentions by gender in the Roy Morgan findings at #3 above?

      • Gabby 3.2.1
        6 September 2022 at 8:59 am

        Both?

        • Anne 3.2.1.1
          6 September 2022 at 9:42 am

          Agreed. Misogyny in the first instance. After years of experience many women develop a sixth sense which tells them to avoid right wing parties because they seem to possess the majority of the cases.

      • Ad 3.2.2
        6 September 2022 at 11:55 am

        From the RoyMorgan points, women are very strong that the country is going in the wrong direction, but still support Labour. That suggests that they support Labour not for its policies but because it has a female leader many women relate to. I don't see that as either a 'smart' thing or a 'misogynist' thing.

        • Nic the NZer 3.2.2.1
          6 September 2022 at 12:16 pm

          The thing we know logically about certain choices in polls is that they only make logical sense if their total probability adds up to 100%. The other thing we see about polls is that the choices selected by people can't possibly add up to 100%.

        • mpledger 3.2.2.2
          6 September 2022 at 5:21 pm

          Or it could suggest that National would go in an even worse wrong direction.

    • Belladonna 3.3
      6 September 2022 at 9:22 am

      My take on Roy Morgan: Labour support holding up well. Still too close to call for the main parties. Greens and ACT are both holding steady – with very little individual fluctuation over the year (1-2% up and down around the 10% mark is well within the margin of error).
      TPM seems to be very variable throughout the year, especially with the different polls (RM have given significantly higher percentages than other polls over the last two polling cycles). It may be that (as is typical for small percentages) the results just aren't as reliable. It may be that the methodology of some of the pollsters is better at sampling the potential TPM vote. It may be that their support levels are actually fluctuating quite a bit (these tend to firm up more as you get closer to an election).

      Labour will be worried by the continued fall in the government confidence rating and the 'heading in the right direction' numbers. Though the slight rise in the consumer confidence one, may give them cause to be hopeful that the trends may turn around.

    • lprent 3.4
      6 September 2022 at 10:44 am

      Based on the trends It looks like the right has hit their polling limits with big suck off of support from Act to National, and a lesser pull of support from Other and Labour to National. But that Luxon honeymoon looks to be over. It is usually all downhill from there. As Labour can testify..

      But I'd say that we've hit a steady state over the last few polls. Apart from the Maori party. That will be interesting if it persists.

      The increased Maori party support is most likely from Labour and Other rather than the Greens. I have no idea why Ad would think that support goes from Greens to MP. Doesn't make much sense when you look at the demographics of Maori party support over the last 15 years. It is going to be interested in how that plays out.

      However I'd think it would be highly unlikely for the Maori party to go into any coalition with Act with the viewpoints expressed over this year. For instance "NZ Māori party rules out right-wing coalition after next election". Not to mention their fate after their coalition with National for 9 years.

      Indeed, I'm not sure that MP will want to go into any coalitions. There are some distinct advantages in being out of government for a smallish party while they try to consolidate their vote.

      It is a long run to the next election and there is no obvious advantage to either major coalition – except that Labour supported by the Greens are currently the incumbent.

      • Ad 3.4.1
        6 September 2022 at 11:52 am

        Greens went down, Maori Party went up.

        Greens have the closest pro-Maori policies to Maori Party.

        Who knows if it lasts.

        • lprent 3.4.1.1
          9 September 2022 at 10:46 am

          Sure, thems de facts – but only if you don't engage your brain for analysis for longer than a TV news anchor.

          You're looking at a single poll rather than the series of polls. Reading anything into a single poll is like conflating random statistical variation into causation.

          In this case if you look over the last 2 to 3 polls from Roy Morgan you'll see that the MP has risen by about 4% over that period, and that the greens have declined by about 1% over the same period. MP has a consistent trend upwards above the margins of error. Greens are just bouncing around within the margins of error.

          I'd give you the exact numbers, but the RM site isn't working correct right now.

          Plus when you look at the whole range of policies between the MP and Greens rather than whatever smallish subset you happen to think is similar (probably just a few social policies), you'll find that there are some quite strong differences between their policies – especially when it involves property, economic growth, ethnicity, legal, and a whole pile of other ones.

          Which tends to suggest that just reading a single poll and assigning causation within margins of error or suggesting unspecified similarities in policy is about as useful as reading chicken entrails.

      • Sanctuary 3.4.2
        6 September 2022 at 12:48 pm

        I interpret a lot of the hardline Thatcherism coming out of the current National leadership as an attempt to suck the air out of ACTs sails and get them back to the 5-7% range.

    • Leighton 3.5
      6 September 2022 at 4:11 pm

      Not sure why Roy Morgan bundles TPM in with Act and National as a potential coalition government in waiting. I'd say it will be a particularly chilly day in hell before we say Act and TPM in any form of working relationship.

    • pat 3.6
      6 September 2022 at 5:16 pm

      Labour are being saved (to date) by the complete ineptitude of the alternative.

  4. Molly 4
    6 September 2022 at 10:12 am

    Third example this week of the "allyship" towards non-males of the progressive (LGB)TQ+ movement, as data for those who continue to assert it is a beneficial forced teaming.

    Excuse or critique if you want. Scroll past if it bores you.

    https://twitter.com/reclaimpridebtn/status/1566833870317785089?s=20&t=NNb4wA-mDij_OfGn9n9PyQ

    • Molly 4.1
      6 September 2022 at 10:32 am

      For those wanting evidence of the type of 'fascism' expected, a full recording of one of the public events from the tour of TERFs:

      https://youtu.be/WjDtdb6t7iQ

      There are videos of violence and aggression, but unfortunately couldn’t find one showing TERF’s knowingly initiating violence with counter-protestors.

      Post if you can.

  5. Stephen D 5
    6 September 2022 at 10:33 am

    Putin’s Dream
    In reply to Adrian at 1.

    https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/photo/map-russian-empire-1914

  6. Jimmy 6
    6 September 2022 at 10:43 am

    Government: Lets tackle youth crime

    Courts: Teen who raped 5 girls gets 9 months home detention

    Teenager Jayden Meyer sentenced to nine months' home detention after raping four 15-year-old girls – NZ Herald

    • Mac1 6.1
      6 September 2022 at 11:16 am

      Reading the media report carefully does give some idea that the situation is more nuanced than a simple crime/punishment issue, including age, agreement between Crown and defence as to suitability of sentence, probation report, judge's awareness of usual degree of sentence.

      No mention in the article about government tackling youth crime.

      I believe is best to allow the court system to operate as it does, as we on the outside are just not privy to the details of the case.

      The only person not fully up with the issue seemed to be the defendant who obviously needs other interventions to address his problems with culpability.

      • dv 6.1.1
        6 September 2022 at 11:29 am

        Good comment Mac

      • Jimmy 6.1.2
        8 September 2022 at 4:59 pm

        Looks like a few other people disagree with the home D sentence.

        Hundreds turn out to protest against teen rapist Jayden Meyer's home detention sentence – NZ Herald

        Only 250 at the actual protest, but that means there would be many others around NZ that thinks the judge was useless.

        • Mac1 6.1.2.1
          8 September 2022 at 5:16 pm

          As I said, "we on the outside are just not privy to the details of the case." In no way do I want to criticise the operation of justice here, nor should we. especially since trust in our judiciary is crucial to feeling safe, secure and confident hat we are served by an unbiased, considerate and not unduly influenced set of judges. I am also sure they are very aware of the effects of their sentencing. Numbers of the public protesting are not an indication of an incorrect decision, but of other concerns.

          You seem to be now free of the idea that government has any direct say in the prosecution or outcomes of this case. The judiciary is independent.

  7. Blazer 7
    6 September 2022 at 11:29 am

    So Liz Truss is confirmed as the U.K's new P.M.

    Finding someone that seems more inept than Bojo….not a problem for the…Tories.

    • Stephen D 7.1
      6 September 2022 at 12:23 pm

      What are the odds that when her poll ratings tank, the Tories get jittery about 2024, and Boris rides to the rescue.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1
        6 September 2022 at 1:08 pm

        The prospect of Boris, Trump et al. riding to the 'rescue' doesn't bear thinking about. Or does it?

        Trump is 'obviously thinking about' running for US president in 2024 – Kushner [2 Sept 2022]
        Asked to confirm that Trump was not ruling out running for president again, Kushner added: "With Trump it's hard to rule anything out, he's a very flexible thing."

      • AB 7.1.2
        6 September 2022 at 1:44 pm

        If they ditch yet another PM via internal coup, they're probably finished whatever. Truss will be looking at where inflation and energy prices are going. If she's courageous, she'll go to the polls early with both the promise of tax cuts to attract the rich and energy price freezes to help the poor. Plus a bit of immigrant bashing to keep the red wall voting Tory. She’ll also look brave and principled for seeking a public mandate for her leadership. Could be her best bet.

        • Stephen D 7.1.2.1
          6 September 2022 at 2:28 pm

          Depends on early polling . If she gets a decent bounce you might be right. Otherwise it could the NZ National party all over again.

  9. Ad 9
    6 September 2022 at 5:09 pm

    Anyone know which Departments are getting thr cuts at AUT?