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Open mike 08/11/2011

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 8th, 2011 - 71 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to Policy in the banner).

Step right up to the mike…

71 comments on “Open mike 08/11/2011”

  1. Matthew Hooton has been interesting lately. He alleged without evidence that Labour has engaged in attempted manipulation of Ipredict but then refused to comment on a very clear example of right wing manipulation of the market.

    Yesterday on Radio New Zealand he hinted that David Cunliffe had tried to sabotage Phil Goff last week by not providing him with a briefing. Nothing could be further from the truth. The draft costings have been in existence for a while and Goff knew in general terms what the figures are. The release of the figures last Friday had been planned for a while.  I thought Goff just struggled to get the information out because Key kept overtalking him.

    But Hooton’s comment was picked up by the Dominion’s Andrea Vance. And David’s Ipredict stock for becoming the future leader then suddenly plunged to as low as .20c before returning to its more normal level of .50c.

    Hooton knows nothing about the Labour Party or its internal workings.  David Cunliffe is an extremely competent performer and the only Labour MP who has continually bested his opposition.  I am certain he would have the measure of Key in a debate. Yet this does not stop Hooton from claiming that the most damaging of a variety of scenarios is the truth.  And then the media pick up on it.

    The technique used by the right is really subtle, work in the background, plant an idea, influence the media, affect measures of popularity then voila the opinion polls back you up. Progressives need to work out how to respond to this.

    • Carol 1.1

      I was also p**sed that Kathryn Ryan kept saying that Labour’s figures are under scrutiny yesterday – I think during the left vs right segment yesterday. i.e. part of the media following Key’s show me the money line, and continuing not to scrutinise Nat/Key’s figures as carefully.

      And this morning Stuff continues that line here:

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5923639/Labours-2-6b-plan-to-tackle-child-poverty

      with the main page headline Labour’s $2.6b gamble

    • Yes, it does seem that he knows that he can make all sorts of unfounded assertions without any evidence.
      I was astounded, last night on iPredict, at the balls of the guy to make what would be otherwise unsupportable assertions.
      As a National mouthpiece he knows that the quality of debate in the NZ media means that he can get his his wildly inaccurate soundbite out and the moderator/interviewer will not have noticed because they are not listening and busy reading the next pre-prepared patsy question.

      • mickysavage 1.2.1

        Gee I just watched it and you are right, Hooton was appalling.  I was particularly interested in his comment that Labour was heading down to National’s 2002 election support levels.  Then this morning Ipredict’s Labour;’a party vote was sold down to .24c.  It has since rallied however.
         
        Maybe there should be securities oversight of Ipredict because there is a strong hint of some political manipulation going on.
         

        • Willie Maley 1.2.1.1

          He has repeated this same B.S. regarding Labour falling to the nats 2002 support for as long as anyone will listen to him.
          Someone needs to remind him about the result in 1993.
          Nikki Kaye on Back Benches last week did not look and act like an M.P. who was safe in thier seat.

    • Colonial Viper 1.3

      Progressives need to work out how to respond to this.

      Yeah, have their own MSM channels, and implement strong public broadcasting with high journalistic standards.

      We can’t expect anything different than today under a regime of corporate and money driven editorial standards.

    • Gipper 1.4

      Mm, this was interesting actually. Andrea Vance forgot the jounralism part of her job and it is a clear tactic from the right to insert some sort of wedge, at least at face value between Phil Goff and David Cunliffe.

      Strange comments she makes appearing to have some insight into the Labour Caucus with her claim he has no numbers, I for one don’t believe this to be true if in fact that’s what’s happening, but from what I can see there is a lot of work happening between the Labour leadership and its senior MPs to deliver costed policies, that doesn’t happen if there is something else going on. Besides, I don’t believe any senior Labour MPs are stupid enough to put a possible left-win at risk given the split between left and right is only up to 5% across a range of polls.

      The media has to do a better job before buying in to this kind of rubbish because it’s not about them, it’s about the voters and voters are being informed by media articles and blogs. The problem with this particular article is that Andrea did no work, rather just drew on Hooten’s comments about leadership and that’s unfortunate for her as someone working to develop her credibility as a journalist.

      Goff doesn’t release policy without it being costed, it’s clear that’s his approach. Even if there were no pressure on finances, there would still be a full costing undertaken because he is not inclined to shoot from the hip. Hooten’s assertions are very unfortunate too, but tactically you would do it to destabilise Labour.

  2. tc 2

    It’s hardly subtle with that interest free taxpayer loan to mediawonks, recycling rick at TVNZ and their good mate griffin at RNZ, granny needed little help as she was already out on the right.

    Hooton snipes and talk over people then backs away leaving others to take up the case….nice work if you can get it, we’ve seem the hollowmen and what he’s about.

  3. LynW 3

    Excellent article by John Robertson in the Herald today

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10764414

    “We have struggled to develop a comprehensive measure of social well-being. We use a multitude of statistics – like mental illness, life expectancy, and prisoner numbers. But there is an increasing body of knowledge suggesting that the best indicator of social well-being may be simply the extent of inequality within a society. “

    • BLiP 3.1

      The platitudinous conclusion is prefaced by a load of old bollocks. The piece reads more like an attempt to justify the Fourth Labour Government’s contribution to New Zealand’s current political climate and economic situation coupled with a call to do it all again.

  4. felix 4

    Key on Morning Report just now says that business people who think National doesn’t have a plan need to get out of their offices and go for a drive, as National’s plan is on billboards up and down the highway.

    Amazing. Key thinks a few slogans counts as a “plan”.

    It’s like we’re building a house and the architect turned up with a list on a piece of card saying

    Walls!
    A roof on top!
    Windows you can see out of!
    A door to every room!
    Lets have a pool!

    I wouldn’t call that a plan either.

    • I can’t believe how inept the questions are.  They are letting Key blather on and he is not answering anything.  You have to admire his ability to constantly regurgitate sound bites.

      • Carol 4.1.1

        Yes… a load of waffle from Key, using his down-to-earth reasonable and calm tone of voice – Mr Slippery PM of the long con.

      • ianmac 4.1.2

        Yes. And trying to listen objectively this morning, I cannot for the life of me hear Key say anything of substance. Waffle! And he still gets a free run!
        Last Sunday morning the commentary said that the persona viewed on TV trumped the audio. Nixon beat Kennedy (?) on radio by virtue of his intellect but the same debate if seen on TV had Kennedy race in because he looked better.
        Is this why Key refuses to debate with Goff on radio but is willing to do so on TV? In audio what Key says is pure waffle. Compare this with Phil’s TV performance late on Sunday night.

        • Ed 4.1.2.1

          Key was quite keen to explain how he had helped the ‘underclass’ through these difficult times. We don’t know who these people are of course because we don’t have a definition of poverty, and the increase in GST affects the wealthy more because they spend more .. but National did help the poor by  … not cutting benefits!. Now there is real compassion . . .

    • drx 4.2

      I though the interview was going to be gutsy from the first question AND THEY let him away with the plan being the billboards.

      • Vicky32 4.2.1

        I honestly could not bear to listen! I spent most of the time in the bathroom… fortunately, not throwing up…

    • Deadly_NZ 4.3

      Now I know what’s on the Nat billboards the same shit as 2008, maybe some people with a little time, petrol and a video camera and go see what they can see and post the results.

  5. AAMC 5

    Photo’s of bubbles bursting on Queen St banks – #occupyauckland Nov 5th…

  6. coolas 6

    Key on morning report:

    ‘We inherited a sick set of books … deficit was 60% of GDP …’

    And .. ‘1/2 of the $18b deficit is due to Christchurch’

    True? or is lying again.

    • BLiP 6.1

      Lies, of course. Even Blinglish had to admit Labour left the books looking pretty good:

      . . . Having condemned his predecessor for many years for paying off debt too quickly, English said: “I want to stress that New Zealand starts from a reasonable position in dealing with the uncertainty of our economic outlook.

      “In New Zealand we have room to respond. This is the rainy day that Government has been saving up for,” he told reporters at the Treasury briefing on the state of the economy and forecasts.

      English pointed to a graph of the debt track since 1972 and projected five years out from today.

      The recent low was 17 per cent of GDP and the ghastly projection for 2013 is 33.1 per cent and possibly worse, under what Treasury calls a “downside scenario” – 38.6 per cent.

      Unemployment is forecast to rise to 6.4 per cent in 2010 and deficits forecast to be $2.4 billion to $3.5 billion larger over the 2010 to 2013 years than forecast just before the election . . .

      . . . but, hey, why would an MSM journalist want to check facts? Too many of them have spent too much time saying National Ltd™ are going to romp home so its now up to them to ensure they’re correct. “Observer bias”, I believe its called.

      • coolas 6.1.1

        Thanks for that .. lying with impunity .. it’s outrageous and those sycophantic journos don’t seem to listem to what he’s saying. No challenge, no rebuttal .. I depair!

        • BLiP 6.1.1.1

          What this country needs is someone in charge who understands economics and the workings of the international financial markets . . . oh, hang on!

        • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.2

          Half of the $18B deficit for the last one year can be attributed to Christchurch, yes.

          But given that Key’s govt has run up a total of $37B in deficits since it took over, that’s a measley $9B contribution to a much larger $37B hole.

          His 60% of GDP number is bullshit.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1

      And NAct want to:-

      1.) Build more farms rather than R&D and produce more valuable products
      2.) Build more fossil fuelled power stations

      Who are NAct working for again? Because it sure as hell doesn’t appear to be us.

  7. gareth 8

    Questions,

    Using the WFF calculator currently if you earn minimum wage with one primary age child and work a 45hr week you get $148 with a $15 minimum wage you get $88.

    Would I be right in thinking that the $60 saved there would be the money that would go towards the extension? The minimum wage rise will make this close to cost neutral? Or will WFF push up with the minimum wage?

    Using before tax figures I work out that someone earning minimum wage @45 hrs gets $607.50 in wages and $148 wff, total $755.50. @ $15 , $675 in wages and $88 wff total $763.
    So unless wff rises not withstanding tax free threshold etc someone classed as ‘working poor’ will be less than $10 per week better off?

    Or am I missing something?

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      Very interesting. I hadn’t given it a lot of thought but of course it makes sense.

      So really minimum wage increase will only individuals or couples without children, and families will have to rely on GST off FF&V and tax-free bracket (phased in) to get much benefit.

      How long until National picks this up?

      Also your figures are wrong. The current minimum wage is $13/hour not $13.50. So it’s $585 before tax not $607.50 for working 45 hours.

      • Lanthanide 8.1.1

        Ok, I used the IRD tax calculator and either you got your numbers completely wrong, or you’re deliberately lying.

        http://www.ird.govt.nz/calculators/keyword/wff-tax-credits/calculator-wfftc-estimate-2012.html

        All my calculations show that if you work 40 hours a week going from $13 to $15 minimum wage will increase your after-WFF income by $2 per hour. Similarly if you work 45 hours a week going from $13 to $15 minimum wage it will increase your after-WFF income by $2 per hour.

        40 hours @ $13: $16.70 inc WFF
        40 hours @ $15: $18.70 inc WFF
        45 hours @ $13: $16.29 inc WFF
        45 hours @ $15: $18.29 inc WFF

        The WFF benefit of $148/week stays fixed under all these scenarios.

  8. prism 9

    Italy can’t get rid of Berlusconi. They elected him as a celebrity figure and then let him demolish the controls on pan-media ownership that aided his personal interests, so that he was then free to have influence everywhere. Why should he go, he likes the publicity and notoriety. He doesn’t care too much about the stability of the Italian nation and people’s future And they didn’t take care themselves to seek out a serious-minded politician committed to policies and a direction good for the health and wealth of the country.

    Health and wealth now that is a good slogan for a NZ politician to support. Will a celebrity such as smile and wave, once over lightly Key have policies advancing those for us all in his mind?

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Another example where unbridled corporate MSM as frakked the political system.

    • Vicky32 9.2

      Italy can’t get rid of Berlusconi.

      Even though 99.9% of my friends despise him! One of my friends on Facebook managed a truly impressive shite storm of abuse about SB’s government tonight! 😀
      Maybe that just reflects the friends I have?

  9. Bored 10

    Hi Prism, there is a major bit of action going on in Europe that will impact this elections winner big time…in short winning this time is the kiss of death. The Euro crisis is unfolding in a way which will see the failure of the European single currency and the total insolvency of the banks (unless bailed out by the public purse in a m. This contagion will spread like dominoes falling into the US and Asian banks. Concurrently we see Brent Crude stubbornly staying too high which will stifle any “growth” initiatives anywhere. The Arab Spring has turned into an Arab Autumn with no resolution of the key issues i.e. food prices, there is only trouble ahead there and we can expect Saudi political turmoil when the banking crash wipes out their “investments”.

    When National resume their role as government of the day they will be looking straight down the barrel of collapsing markets and prices, and contagious financial mayhem. Tax cuts wont be affordable and I predict the inability to borrow offshore will see them rolled back, along with massive welfare and health cuts. Welcome to the “shrinking” economy, permanent growth will be a thing of the past.

    The failure of all parties at this election is their commitment to business as usual with growth as their universal panacea. Ill fares the land.

    • AAMC 10.1

      I’m with you Bored, and don’t know where that leaves me in terms of who I want to take Government.

      On one hand, I’d rather the Nat’s took it on the chin and had to live with the consequences of their ideology. And I’d rather Labour & Green didn’t get labelled with it.

      On the other hand, I believe the Nats ( but to be fair probably the whole Establishment ) possibly have more of an Authoritarian bent, so Depression and ensuing social disintegration could be even nastier in their hands.

      Contemplating not voting…

      • Campbell Larsen 10.1.1

        You have a voice – vote and make sure it is heard.
        Abstaining is not a protest, it is silence – a silence that will be filled with the voices of others or taken as consent.

        • AAMC 10.1.1.1

          I know… I’m just concerned with the consequences either way, I guess what I’m saying is, Labour / Green may be better not to inherit the implosion of Europe and then Wall St as a byproduct of it’s $4 trillion exposure to Euro Banks. Perhaps Key’s ideology imploding on his watch is preferable?

    • prism 10.2

      Bored – It’s all so cheering isn’t it. You could be interested in the interview I heard on Radionz on Russia and its businesses and economy and laws after the fall of Stalinism. (I don’t say Communism as I understand there was only a brief attempt at the real deal in Russia.)

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ldy87
      Three businessmen tell Peter Day about doing business in Russia. William Browder was an investment fund manager in the country who campaigned, with some success, against corruption and left the country, having moved all his company’s assets out, in 2007. He tells Peter Day about his experiences. And two current directors of companies in Moscow discuss what they think they can do to improve corporate governance there.

  10. joe90 11

    Drying intensifying wildfires, carbon release ninefold.

    Drying of northern wetlands has led to much more severe peatland wildfires and nine times as much carbon released into the atmosphere, according to new research led by a University of Guelph professor.

    The study, published today in Nature Communications, is the first to investigate the effect of drainage on carbon accumulation in northern peatlands and the vulnerability of that carbon to burning.
    “Russia, Indonesia and Canada all have abundant peatlands, but they also have been hotspots for intense peat fires in the past decade,” said Guelph professor Merritt Turetsky, who worked on the study with William Donahue of the Water Matters Society of Alberta and Brian Benscoter from Florida Atlantic University.
    In pristine states, peatlands often resist fire because of their wet soils. “Our study shows that when disturbance lowers the water table, that resistance disappears and peat becomes very flammable and vulnerable to deep burning,” she said
    .

    Related: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-07-largest-tundra-yields-scientific.html

  11. AAMC 12

    Italy! Italy! Italy!

    “The euro zone periphery was a sideshow. This stuff with Italy is the real deal. With yields at 6.7% and rising, it’s game over for the euro zone. The extend and pretend stuff ain’t gonna work.”

    http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/italy-italy-italy.html

  12. drx 13

    Key on Morning report- the easy problems are solved by others. the hard ones get to my desk
    HA
    SO THAT is why the hard problems are not solved or even have a plan.

    • Draco T Bastard 13.1

      Well, now we know how we ended up with a cycleway producing ~200 back office jobs.

      • Tigger 13.1.1

        So he’s saying his Ministers aren’t up to solving problems? Way to get behind your people there, John.

  13. Uturn 14

    Are some of the commenters here real people?

    Yesterday I read a comment that I’m sure was someone trying to parody the people they didn’t much like. It was excellently put together – a real collection of self-satisfied right-wing stereotypes. It even had an avatar!

    Today there are people referencing talkback radio as a means of measuring poverty. It’s just too much. Between chuckling at the black humour, I’m having to second guess what I think are genuine contributions. My internet reality is getting distorted. Come on, admit it, who here is being the mischievous scallywag?

  14. Fracking Earthquakes

    It’s good to see the fracking issue being debated in the mainstream media. Being that a poll recently showed the environment is people’s number one concern, it’s important that a proper debate consisting of the facts is presented…

  15. randal 16

    hey mickysavage. ipredict that kweewee will lose the election and ipredict that hooton will not get the vacant brt job.

  16. joe90 17

    Former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson says: ‘We Are Looking Straight Into The Face Of A Great Depression’

    “We have built a dangerous financial system in the United States and Europe,” said the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “We must step back and reform the system.”

    Professor Johnson cited alarming parallels with October 1931, when “people thought the worst was behind them, but the smart people were wrong and instead the crisis just broadened.”

    Previously: The Standard 8 April 2009

    • uke 17.1

      And as one of the comments states:
       

      As EU falls apart, the cracks will spread across the Atlantic and quickly split our largest banks asunder dragging all of the American economy down to unbelievable depths of misfunction and colossal loss of entire generations of wealth. Commodities and agricultural land will be the only safe havens for smart money. Undoubtedly, wars will spring forth from this collapse. The next decade is going to rival the worst in the last few hundred years. The only uncertainty is when. How long will kicking the can down the road be possible as an avoidance

    • joe90 17.2

      What caused the financial crisis? The Big Lie goes viral.

      Why are people trying to rewrite the history of the crisis? Some are simply trying to save face. Interest groups who advocate for deregulation of the finance sector would prefer that deregulation not receive any blame for the crisis.

      Some stand to profit from the status quo: Banks present a systemic risk to the economy, and reducing that risk by lowering their leverage and increasing capital requirements also lowers profitability. Others are hired guns, doing the bidding of bosses on Wall Street.

      They all suffer cognitive dissonance — the intellectual crisis that occurs when a failed belief system or philosophy is confronted with proof of its implausibility.

      And what about those facts? To be clear, no single issue was the cause. Our economy is a complex and intricate system. What caused the crisis? Look:

      • uke 17.2.1

        The main problem, of course, is that any global financial “correction” is inevitably going to impact most on those least to blame for the crisis and least able to insulate themselves from the ensuing mess.
         
        It is always the poorest who bear the brunt of the blunders and excessive greed of the richest. It is unfair and will, I expect, provoke serious blowback for the suits this time around.
         
        Has anyone from a bank or financial institution ever been indicted for the fraud that led to this crisis?

  17. AAMC 18

    “A glass tower filled with people carefully selected for the polish and self-assurance that come with having been formed in institutions of privilege, whose primary attributes are a lack of consciousness, a penchant for deception and an incapacity for empathy or remorse. The curious onlookers behind the windows and we, arms locked in a circle on the concrete outside, did not speak the same language. Profit. Globalization. War. National security. These are the words they use to justify the snuffing out of tiny lives, acts of radical evil. Goldman Sachs’ commodities index….”

    Brilliant piece from Pulitzer winning writer Chris Hedges arrested outside Goldman Sacs the other day…

    http://www.truth-out.org/finding-freedom-handcuffs/1320678254

  18. newsense 20

    Oh dear, I’m sure it’s an innocent mistake.

    Goff’s top ten list of government failings, which the Herald lists two of links to a video of John Key and Nick Smith talking about employment.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10764588

    • RadioNZ Link
      On the subject of Goff’s Top 10…key says

      “The reality is that we have the global financial crisis which has been swirling around now for three years, Christchurch has had earthquakes, and he seems to be in a state of denial that either of those things have happened.”
      He said National had done the best it could in guiding New Zealand through the crises.
       

      He said National had done the best it could in guiding New Zealand through the crises.
      Yeah, a crisis he helped create with his trading in vapour and making money of the backs of people who work for a living!
       
      Time to throw the money changer out of the halls of government!

  19. Morrissey 21

    WANKER WALLOPING
    Liz Bowen-Cluely thrashes David Farrar live on air
    National Radio “The Panel”, Tuesday 8 November 2011

    Ouch! Did anyone else hear Liz deal it out to that National Party stooge a few minutes ago, calling his attack on Robyn Malcolm “balderdash” and telling him to “move on”?

    The glib one (Farrar) was reduced to silence.

    The other glib one (Jim Mora) was reduced to cracking a lame joke in an unsuccessful attempt to soothe the scorched sensibilities of the fat bloke.

  20. AAMC 22

    I guess she’ll be banned!

    • Morrissey 22.1

      I guess she’ll be banned!

      Sadly, you could be correct. It’s a pity, as principled and eloquent confrontation is what that programme sorely needs much more of.

      • William Joyce 22.1.1

        Why did she have to be so partisan?
        How dare she express herself and try to shut down the type of pseudo-debate that has made us feel so comfortable in the past!
        Public displays of passion like that is just oh so unbecoming for a woman?
        Back to the kitchen I say – make me some eggs!
         
        ps. Robyn, still waiting for that call – I’m still ready to carry your babies.
         
         

    • Deadly_NZ 22.2

      Anyone got the file??? I need a good laugh.

  21. Campbell Larsen 23

    CV & Prism

    ‘Recreating Full Employment’ by Paul Dalziel – the most recent Bruce Jesson
    Foundation lecture is now online:
    http://www.brucejesson.com/lectures

  22. logie97 25

    What is it about the Kiwi psyche that whenever one of us is under scrutiny for our actions that we immediately go in to defend for that person.

    The latest is this Williams-the-professional-golfer’s-caddy.

    Seems we cannot bear to think that his actions might have been wrong. As always. it’s the other party’s fault.

    • I don’t know Williams in any personal way so I don’t know if he is, by nature (i.e. by continued mode of conduct and belief), a racist.
      I think the use of black was a descriptor rather than a pejorative term.
      He was not saying that he was an arsehole because he was black (which is racist – i.e. black people are by nature arseholes) but because of all the the arseholes in the world he is black. The use of black was to merely be descriptive (but it was unnecessary).
      The world’s MSM are saying that he called Woods a black arsehole. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, which I think is a nice liberal enlightened idea, and in view of his apology and what others have said about Williams, he didn’t.
      He said about his jubilation at winning was to show – “It was my aim to shove it right up that black arsehole”.
       
      Perhaps the issue is rather about accuracy. Is his arsehole black?
       

  23. rosy 26

    Microphones on – priceless.

    The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, described the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, as a “liar” in a private exchange with Barack Obama at last week’s G20 summit in Cannes that was inadvertently broadcast to journalists….

    “I cannot stand him. He’s a liar,” Sarkozy told Obama. The US president responded by saying: “You’re fed up with him? I have to deal with him every day.”…

    The gaffe followed a press conference after which the two presidents retired to a private room. The conversation apparently began with Obama criticising Sarkozy for not warning the US that France would vote in favour of the Palestinians’ application to join Unesco, the United Nations agency for culture and education.

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  • Green Party seek amendment to ensure all prisoners can vote
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  • New Zealand First MP Mark Patterson selected as candidate for Taieri
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  • Ground-breaking on NZ Post depot
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  • Speech to Labour Party Congress 2020
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