2010 – Pike River – a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
2019 – White Island – a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
2028 – /insert next tragedy here/ a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
Don't let the gutless bastards who run the police these days stop you going to recover bodies from the island. It is your island, your decision. Tell the cops you'll do as you please, get in your machines, and go get those people if that is what you feel is the right thing to do.
Sanctuary, the police announcements do have an echo of them talking about safety for their officers after the Pike River explosion. But then other people with experience have viewed the terrain and can speak about the conditions prevailing and from their reports we know that they must be dead because of the cyanide effect on the body from the gases and the burns from steam.
Do you think that police should not be the ones in charge after non-criminal events like this, this sort of natural tragedy? Would it be better to expand the Civil Defence units, and leave the police to concentrate on their own affairs? It seems to me that they have become too widely spread. Also more personally protective beyond what would be expected, and at the same time more of their work is being done by the Fire Service. And we don't want them hurt in carrying out their jobs either, but they seem to try to be careful but also tackle their essential task without reluctance.
Then there is the control for safety issue of the island. Though it is right by Whakatane, it is overseen by the Internal Affairs Department because off-shore islands fall into their bag. Yet it is Whakatane that people will come to when there is a disaster like this, and some of their own people are involved. So who keeps an overview should be looked at and it seems Whakatane should be the body for overseeing White Island as first call.
Then there is the situation of the island being privately owned. I would have thought it would be in public ownership, something like a National Park.
Then there is the attitude about tourism with risk. One woman said that NZ sells itself as an adventure tourism destination and it seemed she was saying, deaths and injuries happen. A bit casual, she'll be right is the way she sounded to me. The trouble with a tourism business, is that they have bookings and want to keep the business going and will underestimate risk. It has been registered as 2 on the risk scale for a while but they have not closed down as a preventative measure, and only they can decide. Hey that is not very responsible that NZ Inc as a tourism destination comes across as casual. We have been severely criticised in the past by a parent of a dead tourist. Just forgotten the details.
Kathryn Ryan made the point that it was a different sort of event to say a Ruapehu eruption. This one was close and personal, people couldn't run fast and get away. The combination of super-heated steam and sulphurous gases were deadly and would burn skin and airways. Nasty.
Also though it was mentioned in the same breath as adventure tourism, it was being used as an attraction for a cruise ship, presumably an interesting walk on an island that is an active volcanic site for cruisers who are not usually your mountaineers, and adventurers, but just lookers with money wanting a quick sample of the local features. They would be advised what clothing to wear etc. but I wonder if they were told that it was up to Category 2 on the action scale, and was showing signs of greater activity and thus greater risk.
If I was a passenger, I would be looking at a class action against the tour operators. So button down Buttles? The government should wait a while and then offer them a low price for it which will help them pay their legal bills. That is if there is a government in the Beehive and not just a lot of buzzing drones flying around in unproductive circles.
There is something I am not sure about also. I would like NZ Inc to be not making a loss after having to provide rescue efforts and hospital care, (I see the news says that the burns unit is full). Are these treated as externalities by tourism companies? Is there a reliance on ACC? If there is, the public should be aware that what ACC provides is not the complete recovery assistance which someone who could sue would ask for.
There definitely needs to be a public liability insurance or whatever to cover any costs incurred by tourism agencies, otherwise profits from tourism bringing benefits to the country are largely illusory. Has Treasury done a paper on this? You conservatives who love to quote the official line and figures – do you know if the costs of tourist mishaps are counted, calculated and recovered, or better pre-paid as extra charges through some insurance scheme.
Everyone of the survivors are already a million dollar plus cost. We are giving the everything we've got, unstintingly, because we are good people who take care of our guests.
But also need to work out if we failed a duty of care.
That's pretty silly advice as going there at the moment would be very dangerous without the correct equipment. Maybe you should listen to the audio provided below by Pat as they were finding it difficult to breathe etc. as soon as they arrived and that was through the breathing equipment.
The decision to not return to the island can’t have been an easy one to make – but it was the decision made by people with skills, training and qualifications to make such decisions.
There will be a time to debate what the correct response to these things should be – and it’s a valid discussion worth having. There could be lessons to learn from tragedy. Just not now.
1. what is the rush? Given the risk, what is the point of going today instead of waiting? Pike River was different because recovery people weren't allowed in for a very long time, and it's likely that this was in part to prevent investigation of what happened. I'm not seeing that motivation or dynamic here.
2. what should the response be of the various authorities if people go and get into trouble and need rescuing?
There have been flyovers today but the geologists note continuing ground tremors and risk of further activity – thus the work and safety side prevents action.
Just not as high as that faced by those getting the burnt off the island, so little wonder a person who was involved then is prepared to get the bodies off as well.
Calling someone moronic must be a no-no especially when they are upset about people dying and being injured! It is a case for helping thinking things through and being a bit understanding. Without being judgmental or sour.
It's a messy one, a pilot reckoned the day to get the bodies was yesterday (wind cleared away the ash fumes etc and before today's tremors) – but police drones could not fly till today. And apparently they need to survey the scene of the corpse layout for a coronal inquiry (safest by drone to minimise time on the ground etc) before removing bodies etc.
People take personal risks all the time. And there are those advocating banning bullrush as part of their school safety programme. There are those exercising their choices and those who would prevent them, is either moronic or both?
It's more workplace safety than liability. There will be an assessment of the tour operators on that side, apart from the coronal inquiry, the police cannot very well breach of that themselves.
However it seems the biggest risks of safe work practice (other staff coming in after they heard of the eruption) were taken by those rescuing people, if they had not done this, more lives would have been lost.
on the basis of what I’ve read/seen so far, I have zero problem with the actions of people in the first hour after the explosion (chopper pilots, boat operators, first aiders).
What Sanctuary was suggesting is something quite different.
"Yet if people had not done so it would have been worse on Monday."
True. But, that was to save lives, and either needed to happen immediately or not at all, so the justification is for different reasons. It's also valid for people to take action in the moment even if it puts themselves at risk (bearing in mind that the pilots have expertise in assessing risk as well as making judgement calls about that and the value of their own lives). That is different from planning to do something that is dangerous in order to achieve something that can be done at a later date.
1/ If the police had of been on in charge earlier, or the chopper pilots not acted so quickly, then the survivors of the blast rescued by the helicopters would most likely have been left to die of their injuries on the island while the cops dithered for "health and safety" reasons.
2/ The rationale behind police decision making these days seems to be a creeping US style thinking that their lives are more valuable than those of the public. Car loads of heavily armed cops cruising South Auckland in black SUVs for vague reasons also seems to just come back to the police adopting a hyper-cautious approach to risking police lives, even if it means others are needlessly killed.
Sometimes people in emergency and rescue services have to take risks. More importantly, sometimes they are willing to risk their lives to rescue people. That is why when they do we call them heroes.
It is sometimes important to empower people to respond to a local disaster with what they consider to be appropriate steps. Imposing a top down, bureaucratic and technocratic solution based on a rigid adherence to rules can sometimes not be the best outcome. If local people are willing to run the low risk they’ll be on the island when it erupts again in order to recover bodies, who is to say they shouldn’t be allowed to?
They are not stupid. They know what they would be going into.
If the police had of been on in charge earlier, or the chopper pilots not acted so quickly, then the survivors of the blast rescued by the helicopters would most likely have been left to die of their injuries on the island while the cops dithered for "health and safety" reasons
I call bullshit on this.
The police have very difficult jobs to do, especially in major situations like this. They don't always do things well, but they often do, putting themselves at risk on a daily basis.
Your love of authority doing nothing while hiding behind sophistry is well known Pete, so your reply doesn't surprise me.
We all know it would have played out. After a few weeks, the bodies are recovered and the police declare they most likely all died of unsurvivable injuries during the blast. And Pete George would go, “Thank goodness our police who I trust uncritically have reassured me they didn’t fuck it up and leave people to die, how right they were!”
"Your love of authority doing nothing while hiding behind sophistry is well known Pete"
I call bullshit on that too. You're making it up, no evidence, it's false.
"“Thank goodness our police who I trust uncritically have reassured me they didn’t fuck it up and leave people to die, how right they were!”
And on that. That's just pathetic.
The police have an essential role to play in a civil society (perhaps that doesn't apply here), they're not perfect but they're far better than the alternative.
If the police had of been on in charge earlier, or the chopper pilots not acted so quickly, then the survivors of the blast rescued by the helicopters would most likely have been left to die of their injuries on the island while the cops dithered for "health and safety" reasons.
What are you basing that on? My sense is that people first at the scene will make their own decisions and that it's generally accepted in NZ that people can choose to risk their own lives in such a situation. Had the first helicopter passing by when Whakaari blew been a police helicopter I would expect them to have done pretty much what the private chopper pilots did. Maybe I am wrong about that, but I'd like to see what you are basing your opinion on.
The rationale behind police decision making these days seems to be a creeping US style thinking that their lives are more valuable than those of the public. Car loads of heavily armed cops cruising South Auckland in black SUVs for vague reasons also seems to just come back to the police adopting a hyper-cautious approach to risking police lives, even if it means others are needlessly killed.
I'm not seeing the connection. There's a difference between police killing others in an active criminal situation vs saving people's lives in an SAR or first response to emergency situation. Arming cops on the street is a really bad idea, but can you point to cultural reasons within the police that link that to decisions that are made during civil emergencies?
I think it's likely that all agencies now have more formal risk assessment processes, in part driven by legislation. Are we sure the decision to delay recovery of the bodies is on the police alone? What is CD's role in this?
If local people are willing to run the low risk they’ll be on the island when it erupts again in order to recover bodies, who is to say they shouldn’t be allowed to?
When do you think the tourists should be allowed back? I think the central point here is that we don't know what the risk is. When you say low risk, what are you basing that on? The risk was considered low on the day the volcano blew.
The only private person I've seen saying he wants to go back is the pilot RNZ interviewed. It's a great interview, but I don't think he is saying that it's safe. He's saying that he thinks a 20 minute window would be enough in an unknown safety situation. I'm not sure that 20 minutes would be enough to properly recover the bodies, but I'd be interested if there's been expert opinion expressed on that.
I'm mindful that on the day of the explosion there were all sorts of people on twitter demanding to know why no-one was going back to look for survivors. As it turns out, the first responders twice checked for survivors and made the decision on the ground that there weren't any other than those they were evacuating. The public didn't get told until midnight that the believe was there were no survivors, and even then there wasn't really an explanation about that. But I think it's safe to say the police and CD had their hands full.
In other words, police, CD and geonet/GNS will all have access to information that you and I don't have.
Not sure. I wondered if Nash was talking about how police were communicating with family of victims.
I assume all the services will review practice, but I'm not sure updating the public on the first evening would have been a priority. Not sure if the first responder pilots also then flew people to hospitals. Might have been a while before police were able to do interviews formal enough to release information to the public. I'm guessing there was a fair amount of chaos given the numbers of agencies and public involved.
If local people are willing to run the low risk they’ll be on the island when it erupts again in order to recover bodies, who is to say they shouldn’t be allowed to?
Anybody whose duty it would be to rescue them – a duty they can't opt out of. By all means, change the current law and professional standards if that's desired.
And most of us will defer to actual volcano and rescue experts about whether the risk is 'low' thanks.
Risk is a combination of likelihood (being on the island at the wrong time) and impact (effects of an eruption). People and organisations will tolerate a higher likelihood if the impact is low.
A nearby volcanic eruption does not match that calculation. Boiling acid, superhot magma, projectiles and ash flows that nobody can outrun are not things you'd bet against unless you are reckless or stupid. Certainly not something you would bet someone else's life on unless you do not value it much.
Finally , journalists from diverse backgrounds rally to defend Assange in an open letter signed by hundreds
"The journalists write: “We hold the governments of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Ecuador and Sweden accountable for the human rights violations to which Mr Assange has been subjected.”
They cite a powerful comment from Melzer, who wrote earlier this year: “It finally dawned on me that I had been blinded by propaganda, and that Assange had been systematically slandered to divert attention from the crimes he exposed.” The UN official pointed to the role of the corporate press in demonising Assange and repeating the smears against him concocted by the intelligence agencies."
Julian Assange will be released from prison and offered all the psychological assistance he requires after Jeremy Corbyn becomes the PM of the UK in a few days from now.
It'll be interesting to see the take of various pop media outlets that have in turn courted him and buried him. Same for the gangs of hand wringing, nose led liberals who couldn't help shove him down a hole fast enough after initially hailing him as a hero.
Julian Assange will be released from prison and offered all the psychological assistance he requires after Jeremy Corbyn becomes the PM of the UK in a few days from now.
I'm guessing that this will age poorly and Bills political judgement will be shown to be incredibly misplaced.
"“A Labour victory would represent a sharp break with neoliberalism, the failed economic orthodoxy of the past four decades, which makes an idol of the “market” and re-distributes wealth and power ever-upward "
I have been looking at the Irish Potato Famine story and parts of the furore over Ireland in the English parliament are reminiscent of Brexit and the slackness of government where firm resolve to do the sensible as well as the right thing has not prevailed.
Think how the Irish were treated by the UK. There was heavy oppression (austerity) on the population by Brit landlords who ground the Irish tenants down, and took all the profits from their large landholdings away from investing it and growing Irish business, back to Britain.
Landlords in Ireland often used their powers without compunction, and tenants lived in dread of them. Woodham-Smith writes that, in these circumstances, "industry and enterprise were extinguished and a peasantry created which was one of the most destitute in Europe.
There were numerous times of hardship but the potato blight arrived in Europe about 1844 and from 1845 to 1851 hit the Irish hard. This from the Wikipedia Famine link below reminds me of the UK hoo-ha over recent years from hardship caused by Margaret Thatcher and the adoption of a dose of austerity medicine to the UK public to Brexit, an attack of hubris on the supposedly seasoned heads in UK government.
In October 1845, Peel moved to repeal the Corn Laws—tariffs on grain which kept the price of bread artificially high—but the issue split his party and he had insufficient support from his own colleagues to push the measure through.
He resigned the premiership in December, but the opposition was unable to form a government and he was re-appointed. In March, Peel set up a programme of public works in Ireland but the famine situation worsened during 1846, and the repeal of the Corn Laws in that year did little to help the starving Irish; the measure split the Conservative Party, leading to the fall of Peel's ministry.
On 25 June, the second reading of the government's Irish Coercion Bill was defeated by 73 votes in the House of Commons by a combination of Whigs, Radicals, Irish Repealers, and protectionist Conservatives. Peel was forced to resign as prime minister on 29 June, and the Whig leader, Lord John Russell, assumed the seals of office.
Good point! I was actually more just musing as to if the Labour party had had a different leader for say the last six months would they have more chance?
Almost certainly. But who? And how is the best way to choose that leader?
I'm kinda coming to the view that leader selection processes may have swung a bit too far towards systems that give too much emphasis to the fringes of party membership, and not enough weight to the leader's colleagues (who really are in a better position to assess who actually has the skills to be an effective leader).
For examples of the former, see "Cunliffe", "Little", "Corbyn", "Sanders". For the latter, see "Ardern", "Clark". Though "Clinton" and "Shearer" stand as pretty solid arguments against the latter idea.
"The most important conclusion to be drawn from the paranoia into which New Zealand politics has fallen is that its ugly manifestations are driving more and more voters out of their old political pigeon-holes. Those who still see a point in voting are casting their ballots more out of habit than conviction. There may already be an electoral majority in support of a political style that is neither delusional nor irrational.
Chris Trotter advocating for a new political party, in an already crowded field….assuming theres the will what level of support could it expect? or is this NZ First's future when Winston departs?
Colonel Trotter really is struggling to understand today's world through the goggles of his up-the-workers youth. His recent reckons and bedfellows suggest Winston First might be the most comfortable retirement home for him.
That site they set up by copying all whaleoik's files and contact list, defying the official receiver. Called 'bdf' or something? Same cling-ons, same rubbish.
He's writing there. He's got his own author's page describing him as a weekly columnist with links to everything he's contributed. He's posted something every week since 1 April.
Thats not really surprising given his alignment with Jim Anderton's New Labour back in the day…he is , like many i'd suggest, somebody without a natrual political home in todays environment
Yes, my question is more about why he doesn't support the Greens anyway? Where did this political home thing being so exclusionary come from? Lots of people don't have a political home, it's ok to still support parties that are doing good things. The alternative is a fractured left, where too many people think that politics has to be what they want it to be or else (which does appear to be where we are at).
I dont know how old you are but you need to view from the perspective of someone of his generation (im a little younger than him,but not much)….we are all a product of our environment
I’m sure that’s at least partly true. But then that’s the problem isn’t it. He’s smart enough to understand that strategy matters for the greater cause and that one’s gut can undermine that if not used wisely. He makes his political choices just like the rest of us.
He's of a generation that has, and thus wants to keep, so while a social democrat he was against the CGT because people of his generation did not support it.
He likes to pose with the left, but not if it is not popular with his peers, and as you know a lot of oldies voted for Brexit (for the little England of their youth – nostalgia). His is the nostalgia of one no longer of the left, now a cynical realist broken by struggles lost – tired and conceding defeat.
He is like the American Catholic middle class – once Democrats, but now many vote GOP seduced by being white and middle class thus acceptable to their now WASP brethren. Or like Bryce Edwards as long as he is not actually left advocating, he can be a media commentator too as one of their token lefties. Or like Josie Pagani advocating a Labour tax cut strategy to get re-elected, so we remain with inadequate government funding.
it is a problem…possibly insoluble. We might think we are making rational decisions but I suspect we largely only seek out justification for our gut instincts…and why would CT be any different?
one would hope that a seasoned political commentator like Trotter had a better hold of his reason. Changing an election result happens because of many factors, and the influence on that includes political commentary. Which takes me back to finding it odd that he can’t bring himself to support the party with the most left wing policies, assuming those are his actual values. I suspect what SPC is saying is part of it.
think that is a harsh and inaccurate assessment..CT's generation of social dems are by and large unwitting beneficiaries of the asset inflation…indeed many of them are happy to risk their own futures to help their children/grandchildren…there is I fear a deep misunderstanding of the motivations of the older generations
I can cite that the Tory and GOP have older voters on their side – and have seen in the past similar stats here. And one would presume that would be the case. But I canna find anything on google search, not sure why.
But one can cite experienced commentators on the local political scene
Just ask any Gen-Xer or Millennial what sort of person is likely to pick up the phone in their own home and they will hiss “Baby Boomer!” Quite correctly. Which way, do you suppose, a voter sitting on a million dollars-plus of tax-free capital gain is more likely to vote – Left or Right? No wonder, really, that about 45 percent of the Party Vote appears to be welded-on to the National Party!
again, thats an assumption…is worth remembering that a good chunk of those 'boomers' and pre boomers have voted Labour/left all their lives….old habits die hard
SPC – I as a disillusioned Boomer who have always voted Left, would warn you that human nature is what it is, and that your generations and others are very likely to be just as disappointing as we Boomers have shown to be. We all suffer from the same human afflictions. So don't get too haughty, huh?
Good to read you pat having a discussion that doesn't just adopt whatever the conformist view is. I like Chris Trotter because he plays with ideas, looks at what has been done before. Looks at the gap between rhetoric and reality. Sets up strawmen and then takes them down. He exposes himself to ridicule by putting down ideas that others won't consider, but which we need to think about. What Parties say they believe in, what we think of them and their policies, and whether they will be true to their principles, and whether they are practically achievable, it all has to be thought about and sometimes exposed as faulty. It's dirty work but someone has to do it.
Some surprising stuff, such as over 65's preferring National and Labour to NZF – NZF is not as strong there as their reputation suggests.
Yeah, it’s National 1 and Greens 2nd with state house tenants. Must be those who pay the market rent for a good bones old state house (pre leaky homes era) and who also vote.
Thanks for posting the graph from the just been UK election…I had already seen it and it holds some useful data about that event. As you have posted it here I assume you are trying to draw some comparison with this thread and the other (so called) graph you linked.
There is no comparison.
Your earlier link (https://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/how-new-zealand-votes/) is an overlay of census data on election results by polling booth which has too many variables and assumptions . It then displays those assumptions with an unquantified graph so we have no way of knowing what it is expressing. Finally there are contradictions and unlikely results that should be ringing warning bells and demand verification by alternate method….in other words…it is crap
Well since Metirea and Cunliffe were taken out at the knees. And since the managerial set in Labour have well and truly buried any move to democratise the party. And since the only social democrat on the scene is an old school right winger…yeah, there's an almost empty lane waiting to be claimed by simply promoting a social democratic alternative to NZ's woeful liberalism (think Corbyn/Sanders/SNP etc)
Yeah but…are you suggesting Peters is the only old school Tory in the NZ First ranks? That he suppresses a left leaning social democratic tendency within the party? Not seeing it myself, but hey…
No…Peters is old school no doubt…but hes an old school politician…theres a difference between the voter and the voted for.
Winston is a divisive character (personality) but the party has the potential to have a wider appeal…sans Winston. Its basis is old school social democrat…that is not to say I support it but I see the appeal for a demographic
So apparently (just reading this atm) no polls have factored in people under the age of 39 who registered this year. That's about 4 million people 'blanked'.
That leaves four million, the majority of whom are young. Even while various pollsters are happy to predict that they will break 2:1 Labour (which is actually quite a cautious estimate: if they’re young, they turn out and they vote tactically, the Labour share could be higher), they have so far been unwilling to build these voters into their predictions.
And if you look at footage of Corbyn in public and contrast it to footage of Johnson…it really doesn't gel with the narrative being spun by pop media outlets. Corbyn draws crowds and Johnson draws jeers.
Earlier today (or was it last night?) I ran a wee thought experiment on how pop media would likely slant stuff if Labour was looking good…
Pop media reflects the interests of elites. And the last thing they want is for a Corbyn led government to be offering the British public the option of remaining in Europe but being free from Europe's economic liberal straitjacket (the one that renders any social democratic policy platform unlawful) – or of remaining in Europe with the straitjacket still on.
People will opt for the first of those options. And that option fucks elites up. (Reversal of all those privatisation cash cows etc)
So to prevent a Labour/SNP majority, it's absolutely necessary for elites to discourage the Labour vote and hope for a hung parliament – hence the "foregone conclusion" bullshit that just doesn't accord with what can be seen at those public events/rallies.
Edit – Hmm, it also appears, if I’m reading things correctly (poll data hurts my head btw) that the polls being reported are generally conducted by way of “online panel”…
Thanks Bill – the youth vote will be crucial for a Labour win. I haven't got my head around how well different polls are measuring this.
A lot has been said about the YouGov MRP model (which currently predicts a Tory win), because 'it got it right last time'. But actually a track record of getting one election right once doesn't mean that much. I looked through the methodology – what isn't clear is when their panel of registered voters was selected (and specifically whether it can include the most recent registrations – perhaps it can't)?
So if we dig up, as a species, CHx and burn them. And to mitigate the effects we bury, mineralize in carbonated, or other COx aren't we adding hydrogen and removing oxygen from the biosphere? As the sea oxygen depletes, is it a good idea to depend on co2 sequestration, doesn't it create a new problem? o2 loss.
Shane Jones taken from Parliament in an ambulance. All the best Shane.
I was going to ask you why you would fund tarseal of The Lost Highway seeing the gravel was part of the experience. And why you aren't putting that money into investigating a decent road around Raetihi and Whanganui that won't slip into the river. That is really important, not giving the tourists from the cities a nice smooth road. When they are in the backblocks why not let them get the whole experience?
It is really, *really* frightening for us to be defined as a nationality. The trope of "dual loyalism" is classic antisemitism. It encourages people to view American Jews as professing greater loyalty to Israel than to the United States– thereby making us untrustworthy. https://t.co/PyuqK1lLZX
Granted, Zionism was an attempt to recast Judaism as a race/ethnicity. So on that front, the Netanyahu's of the world will be well pleased. But…well, what's to prevent an executive order designating Catholicism as a nationality? And why would that be any less absurd?
President Trump will sign an executive order defining Judaism as a nationality, not just a religion, thus bolstering the Education Department's efforts to stamp out "Boycott Israel" movements on college campuses https://t.co/0avw7eseMc
Two days after President Trump delivers a speech littered with antisemitic tropes and memes, two mass shooters motivated by antisemitic views target a Jewish market in Jersey City.
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Buzz from the Beehive Hurrah. Today we found something fresh on the Beehive website, Beehive.govt.nz, which claims to be the best place to find Government initiatives, policies and Ministerial information. It wasn’t from Finance Minister Grant Robertson, whose reaction to the latest inflation figures would have been appreciated. So, too, ...
Smiling And Waiving A Golden Opportunity: Chris Hipkins knew that the day at Ratana would be Jacinda’s day – her final opportunity to bask in the unalloyed love and support of her followers. He simply could not afford to be seen to overshadow this last chance for his former boss ...
Extremism Consumes Itself: The plot of “Act of Oblivion” concerns the relentless pursuit of the “regicides” Edward Whalley and William Goffe – two of the fifty-nine signatories to King Charles I’s death warrant. As with his many other works of historical fiction, Robert Harris’s novel brings to life a period ...
To challenge the Government’s promotion of co-governance, to share power between Maori and public authorities and agencies, is to invite accusations of racism. An example: this article by Martyn Bradbury on The Daily Blog headed Luxon’s race baiting hypocrisy at Ratana. The article was triggered by National leader Christopher Luxon, ...
A very informative video discussion: Are we getting the whole story about Ukraine? | Robert Wright & Ivan Katchanovski Getting objective information on the situation in Ukraine and the cause of this current war is not easy. There is the current censorship and blatant mainstream media bias – which ...
Yesterday the Herald ran an op-ed from Mayor Wayne Brown titled “The case for light rail is lighter than ever” and a few things stood out. However, it’s getting more and more tricky to make a strong economic case for spending up to $29 billion on a single route of ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Samantha Harrington Imagine it’s a cold February night and your furnace breaks. You want to replace it with an electric heat pump because you’ve heard that tax credits will help pay for the switch. And you know that heat pumps can reduce ...
In 2005, then-National Party leader based his entire election campaign on racism, with his infamous racist Orewa speech and racist iwi/kiwi billboards. Now, Christopher Luxon seems to want to do it all again: Fresh off using his platform at this week's Rātana celebrations to criticise the government's approach to ...
Inflation is showing little sign of slowing down, posing a problem for freshly minted PM Chris Hipkins. According to that old campaigner Richard Prebble, Hipkins should call a snap election. If he waits till October, he risks being swept away. The dilemma for the new leader is that fighting an election ...
Buzz from the Beehive A great deal has happened since January 19. Among other things, a new Prime Minister and deputy have been sworn in and our leaders (past, present and aspiring) have delivered speeches at Ratana. Newshub reported that politicians of all stripes had descended upon Rātana for the ...
It’s a big day for New Zealand; our 41st Prime Minister has taken office and the new, “Chippy” era of politics is underway. Or, on the other hand, the Labour Party continues to govern with an overall majority and much the same leadership team in place. Life goes on and ...
New Zealand has another Prime Minister who does not have a basic grasp of the three articles of the Treaty of Waitangi. THOMAS CRANMER writes: It is simply astonishing that New Zealand’s next Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, is unable to give even a brief explanation of the three articles ...
A statue of a semi-naked Nick Smith puts the misogyny debate into perspective. GRAHAM ADAMS writes … In the wake of Ardern’s abrupt resignation, the mainstream media are determined to convince us she was hounded from office mainly because she is a woman and had to fall on her sword ...
A Different Kind Of Vibe: In the days and weeks ahead, as the Hipkins ministry takes shape, the only question that matters is whether New Zealand’s new prime minister possesses both the wisdom and the courage to correct his party’s currently suicidal political course. If Chris “Chippy” Hipkins is ...
An editorial in the NZ Herald last week, titled “Nimbyism goes bananas as housing intensifies“, introduced Herald readers to a couple of acronyms that go along with the now-familiar NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard): “bananas” (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone) “cave” dwellers (citizens against virtually everything). The editorial ...
Back in the dark autumn of 2020, when the prospect of Covid was freaking the country out, Finance Minister Grant Robertson set himself and Treasury a series of questions about what a post-Covid economy might look like. Those were fearful days, and the questions in part reflected a series ...
Buzz from the Beehive Yet another day has passed without Ministers of the Crown posting something to show they are still working for us on the Beehive website. Nothing new has been posted since January 17. Perhaps the ministers are all engaged in the bemusing annual excursion ...
Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has already indicated he intends making the tax system “fairer”. That points to the route a government facing an election could take to tilt the odds towards winning in its favour, given Labour’s support in the last months of the Ardern era had been ...
NewsHub has a poll on the cost-of-living crisis, which has an interesting finding: the vast majority of kiwis prefer wage rises to tax cuts: When asked whether income has kept up with the cost of living, 54.8 percent of people surveyed said no and according to 58.6 percent of ...
Labour has begun 2023 with the centre-left bloc behind in the polls and losing ground. That being so, did his colleagues choose Chris Hipkins as the replacement for Jacinda Ardern because they think he has a realistic shot at leading them to victory this year, or because he‘s the best ...
Two Flags, Two Masters? Just as it required a full-scale military effort to destroy the first attempt at Māori self-government in the 1850s and 60s (an effort that divided Maoridom itself into supporters and opponents of the Crown) any second attempt to establish tino rangatiratanga, based on the confiscatory policies ...
The first of Kiwirail’s big network shutdowns to fix the foundations on our tracks is now well underway with the Southern Line closed between Otahuhu and Newmarket. This is following on from the network wide Christmas/New Year shutdown, during which Kiwirail say that nearly 1,300 people working across 69 different ...
This is a re-post from the Citizens' Climate Lobby blogIn last year’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Congress included about $20 billion earmarked for natural climate solutions. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is responsible for deciding how those funds should be allocated to meet the climate ...
You’ve really got to wonder at the introspection, or lack thereof, from much of the mainstream media post Jacinda Ardern stepping down. Some so-called journalists haven’t even taken a breath before once again putting the boot in, which clearly shows their inherent bias and lack of any misgivings about fueling ...
Over the weekend I was interviewed by a media outlet about the threats that Jacinda Ardern and her family have received while she has been PM and what can be expected now that she has resigned. I noted that the level of threat she has been exposed to is unprecedented ...
Dr Bryce Edwards writes: The days of the Labour Government being associated with middle class social liberalism look to be numbered. Soon-to-be Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni are heralding a major shift in emphasis away from the constituencies and ideologies of liberal Grey ...
A Different Kind Of Vibe: In the days and weeks ahead, as the Hipkins ministry takes shape, the only question that matters is whether New Zealand’s new prime minister possesses both the wisdom and the courage to correct his party’s currently suicidal political course. If Chris “Chippy” Hipkins is able to steer ...
The days of the Labour Government being associated with middle class social liberalism look to be numbered. Soon-to-be Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni are heralding a major shift in emphasis away from the constituencies and ideologies of liberal Grey Lynn and Wellington Central towards the ...
Following the surprise resignation of Jacinda Ardern last week, her replacement, Chis Hipkins, has said: Over the coming week, Cabinet will be making decisions on reining in some programs and projects that aren’t essential right now That messaging is similar to what Jacinda Ardern said late last year and as ...
Much of what will mark the early days of Chris Hipkins’ Prime Ministership would have happened anyway. By December, the Prime Minister and Finance Minister were making it clear the summer break and early days of this year were going to be spent on a reset of government policy. ...
Going to try to get into the blogging thing again (ha!) what with an election coming up and all that. So today I thought I'd start small and simple, by merely tackling the world's (second) richest man.I'm no fan of Elon Musk. You don't want to know why, but I'll ...
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 15, 2023 thru Sat, Jan 21, 2023. Story of the Week State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2022With a new year underway, most of the climate data for ...
Well, that was a disappointment. As of today, the New Zealand Labour Caucus opted for Chris Hipkins as our new Prime Minister, and I cannot help but let loose a cynical cackle. ...
Get ready for a major political reset once Chris Hipkins is sworn in as Prime Minister this week. Labour’s new leader is likely to push the Government to the right economically, and do his best to jettison the damaging perceptions that Labour has become “too woke” on social issues. Overall, ...
Things have gone sideways… and it’s only the third week of January? It was political earthquake time. For some the Prime Minister made a truly significant announcement. For others – did you have this on your bingo card? – a body double did so (sit tight, you’ll understand later, ...
Buzz from the Beehive Because our hard-working Ministers of the Crown are engaged in Labour Party caucus stuff in Napier, no doubt jockeying to ensure they keep their jobs or get a better one, Point of Order was not surprised to find no fresh news on the Beehive website this ...
By the end of 2019, Jacinda Ardern was a political superstar heading towards an election defeat. She was an icon, internationally beloved, on track to be an ex-prime minister before the age of forty. It was the year of the Christchurch terror attack when Ardern’s response to the atrocity saw ...
People complain about their jobs being meaningless. Does it matter?David Graeber, author of Bullshit Jobs: The Rise of Pointless Work and What We Can Do About It, would have smiled at Elon Musk’s sacking half the Twitter workforce. Musk seems to be confirming the main thesis of the book, that ...
Dr Bryce Edwards writes: Should New Zealand have a snap election? That’s one of the questions arising out of the chaos of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s shock resignation. There’s an increased realisation that everything has changed, and the old plans and assumptions for election year have suddenly evaporated. ...
Should New Zealand have a snap election? That’s one of the questions arising out of the chaos of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s shock resignation. There’s an increased realisation that everything has changed, and the old plans and assumptions for election year have suddenly evaporated. So, although Ardern has named an ...
I warned about the trap of virtue signaling in my article Virtue signaling over Ukraine. This video is still relevant – but have we moved on since then? The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was universally condemned at the time. Or was it? Certainly, the political atmosphere ...
Earlier this week Point of Order carried a post by Geoffrey Miller on how Japan under a new security blueprint is doubling its defence spending. The plans see Japan buying up advanced weaponry – including long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US – and spending more on ...
Anyone else suffering back-to-work-blues? We’re battling, but still upright. Haere tonu! Today’s cover image is of sunset over Tirohanga Whānui Bridge, sourced from Twitter. The week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Jolisa pondered the fate of AT’s ‘Statements of Imagination’. Tuesday’s post was a guest post by Grady ...
Open access notables Bad news delivered by an all-star cast of familiar researchers: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans. From the abstract: In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, ...
The resignation of Jacinda Ardern has already made more global headlines than you might expect for that of the PM of a small commonwealth nation like say Sierra Leone (population 6.5 million) or Singapore (population 5.5 million). But international observers might not be too surprised by Ardern’s announcement that ...
One of my earliest political memories is the resignation of Prime Minister David Lange in August 1989. I remember this because of a brown felt-tipped pen drawing I did of the Beehive, the building that houses the Executive of the New Zealand Government. More than thirty years later, we ...
Buzz from the Beehive Hard on the heels of our Buzz from the Beehive earlier today, the PM has made two announcements – the 2023 general election will be held on Saturday 14 October and she will not be campaigning to win a third term as Prime Minister. She will ...
Jacinda Ardern had an outsized impact on New Zealand’s international relations. While all Prime Ministers travel internationally, Ardern’s calendar was fuller than most. Ardern’s first major foreign trip came within weeks of her election in 2017, to the APEC summit in Vietnam. The meeting gave Ardern her first in-person encounter ...
She gave it her all. No New Zealand Prime Minister has ever dominated the political scene at home as she has done, or has established an international profile to match hers. No New Zealand Prime Minister has had to confront such a sequence of domestic and international catastrophes – from ...
Jacinda Ardern's shock resignation announcement today has left a lot of us with a lot of complicated feelings. In my case, while I've been highly critical of Ardern's government, I'm still sorry to see her go. We've had far too many terrible things happen during her term as Prime Minister ...
The decision by Jacinda Ardern to end her term as Prime Minister on February 7 has come as a stunning surprise. It turns the task of a centre-left government winning re-election this year from difficult to nigh on impossible. No-one else among the Labour caucus has Ardern’s ability to explain ...
Jacinda Ardern’s first press conference as Labour leader in August 2017 was a defining moment in the past decade of New Zealand politics. A young woman (by the standards of politics) who had long been tipped for higher office, she had underperformed as a minister and Andrew Little’s noble resignation ...
The tools exist to help families with surging costs – and as costs continue to rise it is more urgent than ever that we use them, the Green Party says. ...
Members of Parliament for the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand have today written to Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Khamenei to condemn the ongoing violence and killing of women’s rights and democracy protesters, and to call on him to intervene immediately. ...
As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
The Government is maintaining its strong trade focus in 2023 with Trade and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visiting Europe this week to discuss the role of agricultural trade in climate change and food security, WTO reform and New Zealand agricultural innovation. Damien O’Connor will travel tomorrow to Switzerland to attend the ...
The Government has extended its medium-scale classification of Cyclone Hale to the Wairarapa after assessing storm damage to the eastern coastline of the region. “We’re making up to $80,000 available to the East Coast Rural Support Trust to help farmers and growers recover from the significant damage in the region,” ...
The Government is making an initial contribution of $150,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Tairāwhiti following ex-Tropical Cyclone Hale, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “While Cyclone Hale has caused widespread heavy rain, flooding and high winds across many parts of the North Island, Tairāwhiti ...
Rural Communities Minister Damien O’Connor has classified this week’s Cyclone Hale that caused significant flood damage across the Tairāwhiti/Gisborne District as a medium-scale adverse event, unlocking Government support for farmers and growers. “We’re making up to $100,000 available to help coordinate efforts as farmers and growers recover from the heavy ...
A vaccine for people at risk of mpox (Monkeypox) will be available if prescribed by a medical practitioner to people who meet eligibility criteria from Monday 16 January, says Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall. 5,000 vials of the vaccine have been obtained, enough for up to 20,000 ...
RNZ News Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has acknowledged the way Aucklanders have come together and opened their homes to those in need, with the New Zealand government focused on providing the resources needed to get the city back up and running. The new prime minister — just four days into ...
RNZ News Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty has asked for communication on support after the severe thunderstorm in Auckland to be stepped up. It comes after a Civil Defence warning text failed to be sent out, and Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown told RNZ they will be reviewing the response, ...
RNZ News Three people are dead and at least one person is missing following the flooding overnight in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. About 1000 people were still stranded today after Auckland Airport was closed last night because of flooding of the arrival and departure foyers. Flights were cancelled for ...
Wayne Brown has doubled down on his decision last night to shun the media until close to midnight and only order a state of emergency at 9.30pm. In a defensive display to the media this afternoon, the Auckland mayor was questioned on comments other councillors made last night, including some ...
Prime minister Chris Hipkins has confirmed there are three deaths linked to the extreme weather event in Auckland over the past 24 hours. There is also at least one person missing. Speaking at a press conference in Auckland, Hipkins said the priority was to make sure Aucklanders were safe, housed ...
*This story was first published on The Conversation and is republished with permission*Until New Zealand's stormwater drain system adapts to our rising climate, it will never be able to cope with the level of flooding seen in Auckland on Friday night, writes James Renwick The extraordinary flood event Auckland experienced ...
Chris Hipkins has experienced his first major event as prime minister, just days into his tenure. He’s spent the day in Auckland alongside emergency services, surveying the damage and assessing next steps. He’s due to speak at 3.15pm alongside Auckland mayor Wayne Brown. Thanks to Stuff, here is a livestream. ...
Due to the “unprecedented weather event” in Auckland, organisers have confirmed the “heartbreaking decision” to cancel this year’s Laneway Festival. “We were so excited to deliver this show to our biggest crowd ever in New Zealand, our team has been working around the clock to do everything they can to ...
With the rain easing for a moment, many will be beginning the arduous task of cleaning out their flooded property. Auckland council has release advice for cleaning up after a flood. Cleaning up after a flood It is important to clean and dry your house and everything in it. Floodwater ...
Air New Zealand Chief Operational Integrity and Safety Officer Captain David Morgan says the airline’s domestic flights in and out of Auckland resumed from 12pm today as Auckland Airport re-opens. But he said with a backlog of flights and customers, the priority is those who need to travel urgently. “Those ...
Festival-goers holding on hope for Laneway, set to take place at Western Springs on Monday, will have to wait a bit longer for an official update. A brief post on Facebook this afternoon stated: “Safety is Laneway Festival’s number one priority. With the large weather event Auckland is currently experiencing, ...
Wayne Brown has defended the timing of a declaration of a state of emergency last night following record rainfall in Auckland. “The state of emergency is a prescribed process, it’s quite formal, and I had to wait until I had the official request from the emergency management centre. The moment ...
After the 11th hour cancellation last night, Elton John has cancelled the second concert of his farewell tour at Mt Smart, which had been scheduled for this evening. In a statement, John said: “Following the instruction of the emergency services, we have no option but to cancel tonight’s show in ...
The member of parliament for Mt Albert, Jacinda Ardern, has posted a message on Facebook following the flooding in Auckland. “I’m very conscious that it’s been a while since I posted, and there have been a few big things happening. But today the most important thing is everyone’s wellbeing and ...
Flooding of the runway, the check-in and arrivals areas on the ground floor and surrounding roads has disrupted operations at Auckland International, halting all departures until at least 5pm today, with no arrivals before 4:30am tomorrow. “People are asked not to come to the International Terminal at this time for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Renwick, Professor, Physical Geography (climate science), Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Victoria Park near the Auckland CBD on January 27.Getty Images The extraordinary flood event Auckland experienced on the night of January 27, the eve of the ...
New Zealand’s largest insurance group, IAG, says it is on track to receive more than 1,100 claims from Aucklanders by lunchtime after the city was deluged in the wettest day on record. Those claims, said the group which includes AMI, State and NZI Insurance, span property damage to homes and ...
The rampant flooding in Auckland didn’t just detonate its provincial public holiday weekend – it coincided with the biggest weekend of the year to date for live events. A pair of Elton John concerts at Mt Smart stadium had a combined capacity of over 80,000, while both Laneway at Western ...
Auckland is beginning a clean-up after its wettest day since records began. “Auckland was clobbered on Friday,” said emergency management duty controller Andrew Clark. “We won’t start to get a good idea of numbers affected until later today and, even then, this will take time, with information still coming in ...
The prime minister, Chris Hipkins, is travelling to Auckland after devastating floods hit the city overnight. With the airport out of operation until at least midday, he is landing at Whenuapai air base on a New Zealand Defence Force Hercules aircraft from Wellington. ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has arrived in Auckland for a daylong visit to the city following its catastrophic flood on Friday night. Flying in an Air Force Hercules to Whenuapai, Hipkins will spend roughly three hours on the ground assessing flood damage in the city before returning. He will receive ...
A quirk of timing left all Auckland’s institutions on the back foot. But social media, particularly TikTok, graphically showed just how bad the situation was. Late afternoon on a Friday is known as time to quietly drop bad news. You have the plausible deniability of it happening during work hours, ...
It’s a common sight during summer. It’s also a recipe for disaster.I recently drove with my family from New Plymouth to Tāmaki Makaurau and, just like how I lost count of how many cows I saw on the way, I lost count of how many cars had a passenger ...
Opinion - Election year has begun with a bang, and already the punditry and speculation are ramping up, but Grant Duncan warns not to treat polls as gospel. ...
New Zealand’s new prime minister, Chris Hipkins, is formally facing down an emergency just a few days after being sworn in, summoning the National Crisis Management Centre to the Beehive. The Beehive Bunker is being stood up to help with coordination of the emergency response in Auckland. I’ve asked ...
Analysis - Jacinda Ardern is one of New Zealand's most historically significant leaders. But she did not achieve the grand vision for Aotearoa her outsized rhetoric promised. ...
Brits abroad can be an asset to Aotearoa - but only if we make an effort to engage with te ao Māori, writes Scottish expat Fran Barclay Earlier this week, the UK High Commissioner signalled a promising intention to address the barriers facing young Māori and Pasifika who aspire to ...
"They want the Māoris out": provincial life in NZShe hadn’t learned to shut her mouth. Howard was tired of Councillor Kemp harping on and on and on. He pushed himself deeper into the boardroom chair and leaned back as far as he could force it. This woman had ranted ...
Positive affirmation quotes often aren’t helpful for tāngata whai ora. But taking the piss out of them can be. Early in January, on the first day of what would be a week of staying in bed with the curtains pulled, I put a disappointingaffirmations Instagram post up on my stories. ...
Ellen Rykers visits Mahakirau Forest Estate, ‘a crown jewel in the Coromandel Range’, where pest control is serious business.This is an excerpt from our weekly environment newsletter Future Proof – sign up here. The Mahakirau Forest Estate is not your average subdivision. Enter through its tall ...
As Auckland tackles severe floods and the city’s airport emerges from a deluge on both the runway and in terminals, Air New Zealand has confirmed that no flights will leave or arrive before noon on Saturday at the earliest. In a statement, the airline said anyone booked for a flight ...
RNZ News Mayor Wayne Brown has shut down criticism that he was too slow in declaring a state of emergency after severe flooding in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. In a media stand-up late on Friday evening, Brown said he was following advice from experts and as soon as they ...
The Prime Minister has gone down to the Beehive bunker to help coordinate the emergency response, as the Insurance Council warns some Aucklanders whose homes and business are flooded face very hard times ahead. Jonathan Milne reports.Comment: Standing by the south-western motorway, I watched in dismay as hundreds of cars ...
A state of emergency has been declared in Auckland as severe weather causes major flooding across much of the city. It’s expected the rain will continue into the morning. This post will be updated as more information is shared.What does a state of emergency mean? A state of emergency ...
Auckland’s mayor Wayne Brown said he declared an emergency in Auckland as soon as he possibly could – and he made the decision without listening to the “clamour” of the public. There has been some criticism of the mayor for his relative silence today throughout the deadly flooding that’s hit ...
Welcome to a special late night edition of The Spinoff’s live updates as Auckland enters a state of emergency. Stewart Sowman-Lund is on deck, with help from our news team.The top linesAuckland is in a state of emergency. It will remain in place for seven ...
Prime minister Chris Hipkins is pleased the call was made to declare a state of emergency in Auckland. All government agencies were working “flat out” to help in what was an “extraordinary set of circumstances”, Hipkins said in a tweet. “The emergency response is underway and the government is ready ...
Auckland’s mayor Wayne Brown has released a statement following the decision to declare a state of emergency in Auckland. Brown has faced criticism this evening for his relative silence throughout today’s major flooding, with the first public pronouncement of the state of emergency coming from his deputy. Brown said the ...
Christopher Luxon has criticised the time it took for the state of emergency in Auckland to be declared. The National Party leader is currently in Southland, but told Today FM he intends to get back to Auckland as soon as possible. Earlier in the night, Luxon sent a tweet “urging” ...
Here is, verbatim, that latest information we have from Civil Defence on tonight’s state of emergency in Auckland: Auckland Emergency Management has opened a Civil Defence Centre to assist those that have been displaced or need assistance following today’s severe weather. The centre is open now and is based at ...
Severe flooding has ravaged Auckland today but the mayor of the city is barely visible. As I write, the airport has flooded, check-in areas looking like a public pool. Motorways are overflowing and cars have been seen floating down streets like a river. A person has died in floodwaters in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers has laid out an economic blueprint for pursuing “values-based capitalism”, involving public-private co-investment and collaboration and the renovation of key economic institutions and markets. In a 6000-word essay in The Monthly ...
This is live coverage of the developing situation in Auckland. We will continue to update this with photos and information as it comes to hand. After a day of torrential rain, and new reports of at least one death in the flood water, a state of emergency has been declared ...
Fans are describing Auckland Transport's plans to help them get to and from Elton John's concerts in the supercity this weekend as a fiasco with tonight's concert now cancelled due to the weather. Two concerts were due at Mt Smart Stadium before tonight's concert was called off in the face ...
A state of emergency has been declared in Auckland due to severe flooding that has caused people to evacuate their homes. It was officially declared at 9.54pm. Meanwhile, Auckland Airport has closed its international terminal check-in due to flooding inside the building. The airport says it is sincerely sorry to ...
RNZ News Residents in flood-prone areas of West Auckland are being asked to prepare to evacuate as bad weather causes power cuts and car crashes across Tāmaki Makaurau, with a severe thunderstorm watch in place for the north of Aotearoa New Zealand. Auckland Emergency Management said the severe weather across ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Ward, Postdoctoral research fellow, The University of Queensland Five years ago, bulldozers with chains cleared forests and woodlands almost triple the size of the Australian Capital Territory in a single year. Brazil? Indonesia? No – much closer: Queensland. In 2018-19, ...
Auckland Transport has apologised for confusing messaging that suggested attendees of tonight’s Elton John concert should drive. In a post on Facebook last night, AT said “driving to the concert is recommended” – a suggestion that prompted backlash due to the lack of parking options near the stadium. The announcement ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Tingay, John Curtin Distinguished Professor (Radio Astronomy), Curtin University Asteroid 20223 BU’s path in red, with green showing the orbit of geosynchronous satellites.NASA/JPL-Caltech There are hundreds of millions of asteroids in our Solar System, which means new asteroids are discovered ...
In his memoir Spare, Prince Harry revealed he attended the future King and Queen of England’s wedding with a frostbitten penis. A veteran of Antarctic expeditions says it’s not an issue that crops up often, if at all.Now that the avalanche of coverage about the Duke of Sussex’s memoir ...
A new poem by Wellington poet and publisher Ash Davida Jane. objects in the mirror are closer than they appear if a dog digs in the right spot and unearths a rib what do I care if a woman grows from that bone take her in and tend to her ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan (Grove Press, $25) Everyone’s chowing down on fiction ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Associate Professor, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide schankz/Shutterstock Have you ever worried if the play between your cats was getting too rough? A new study published in Scientific Reports has investigated play and fighting ...
More water than anything else, the cucumber is the perfect counter to intense and fiery flavours. Cucumber is without a doubt the most refreshing vegetable*, the antidote to hot summer days. At 95% water, a cucumber is basically an edible, crunchy, waste-free water bottle. Beside water, the cucumber has almost ...
REVIEW:By Rowan Callick Radio Australia was conceived at the beginning of the Second World War out of Canberra’s desire to counter Japanese propaganda in the Pacific. More than 70 years later its rebirth is being driven by a similarly urgent need to counter propaganda, this time from China. Set ...
The yellow brick road to Mt Smart stadium looks to be packed this weekend as thousands travel to dual Elton John concerts In the words of pop royal Elton John, “I think it’s going to be a long, long time” - in this case for the 40,000 odd concert-goers driving ...
The decision by Sport Northland to deny 'Stop Co-Governance', a community group, use of their Whangarei venue to hold a public meeting is illegal and defies the rights given to all Kiwis to voice their political opinions. This case, yet again, illustrates ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University The supposed dimensions of the “crisis” in Alice Springs have been exhaustively portrayed in the media, both nationally and in the Northern Territory. The stories abound: shopfront windows repeatedly broken, groups of ...
Children’s Commissioner, Judge Frances Eivers: "Myself and previous Commissioners have been clear that the use of motels at all is deplorable, and a symptom of a system that is failing children. "Concerns around the practice have been raised repeatedly ...
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2010 – Pike River – a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
2019 – White Island – a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
2028 – /insert next tragedy here/ a catastrophe caused by slack, light handed regulation, allowing the operator to call the shots on safety and letting commercial pressures drive decision making.
Rinse and repeat ad nauseam.
Yes Pike River.
We don't know about White Island yet.
Oh and my advise to the people of Whakatane?
Don't let the gutless bastards who run the police these days stop you going to recover bodies from the island. It is your island, your decision. Tell the cops you'll do as you please, get in your machines, and go get those people if that is what you feel is the right thing to do.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018726369/whakaari-white-island-doctor-on-what-he-found
Sanctuary, the police announcements do have an echo of them talking about safety for their officers after the Pike River explosion. But then other people with experience have viewed the terrain and can speak about the conditions prevailing and from their reports we know that they must be dead because of the cyanide effect on the body from the gases and the burns from steam.
Do you think that police should not be the ones in charge after non-criminal events like this, this sort of natural tragedy? Would it be better to expand the Civil Defence units, and leave the police to concentrate on their own affairs? It seems to me that they have become too widely spread. Also more personally protective beyond what would be expected, and at the same time more of their work is being done by the Fire Service. And we don't want them hurt in carrying out their jobs either, but they seem to try to be careful but also tackle their essential task without reluctance.
Then there is the control for safety issue of the island. Though it is right by Whakatane, it is overseen by the Internal Affairs Department because off-shore islands fall into their bag. Yet it is Whakatane that people will come to when there is a disaster like this, and some of their own people are involved. So who keeps an overview should be looked at and it seems Whakatane should be the body for overseeing White Island as first call.
Then there is the situation of the island being privately owned. I would have thought it would be in public ownership, something like a National Park.
Then there is the attitude about tourism with risk. One woman said that NZ sells itself as an adventure tourism destination and it seemed she was saying, deaths and injuries happen. A bit casual, she'll be right is the way she sounded to me. The trouble with a tourism business, is that they have bookings and want to keep the business going and will underestimate risk. It has been registered as 2 on the risk scale for a while but they have not closed down as a preventative measure, and only they can decide. Hey that is not very responsible that NZ Inc as a tourism destination comes across as casual. We have been severely criticised in the past by a parent of a dead tourist. Just forgotten the details.
Kathryn Ryan made the point that it was a different sort of event to say a Ruapehu eruption. This one was close and personal, people couldn't run fast and get away. The combination of super-heated steam and sulphurous gases were deadly and would burn skin and airways. Nasty.
Also though it was mentioned in the same breath as adventure tourism, it was being used as an attraction for a cruise ship, presumably an interesting walk on an island that is an active volcanic site for cruisers who are not usually your mountaineers, and adventurers, but just lookers with money wanting a quick sample of the local features. They would be advised what clothing to wear etc. but I wonder if they were told that it was up to Category 2 on the action scale, and was showing signs of greater activity and thus greater risk.
If I was a passenger, I would be looking at a class action against the tour operators. So button down Buttles? The government should wait a while and then offer them a low price for it which will help them pay their legal bills. That is if there is a government in the Beehive and not just a lot of buzzing drones flying around in unproductive circles.
There is something I am not sure about also. I would like NZ Inc to be not making a loss after having to provide rescue efforts and hospital care, (I see the news says that the burns unit is full). Are these treated as externalities by tourism companies? Is there a reliance on ACC? If there is, the public should be aware that what ACC provides is not the complete recovery assistance which someone who could sue would ask for.
There definitely needs to be a public liability insurance or whatever to cover any costs incurred by tourism agencies, otherwise profits from tourism bringing benefits to the country are largely illusory. Has Treasury done a paper on this? You conservatives who love to quote the official line and figures – do you know if the costs of tourist mishaps are counted, calculated and recovered, or better pre-paid as extra charges through some insurance scheme.
Everyone of the survivors are already a million dollar plus cost. We are giving the everything we've got, unstintingly, because we are good people who take care of our guests.
But also need to work out if we failed a duty of care.
That's pretty silly advice as going there at the moment would be very dangerous without the correct equipment. Maybe you should listen to the audio provided below by Pat as they were finding it difficult to breathe etc. as soon as they arrived and that was through the breathing equipment.
White Island is owned by an Auckland family. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118071975/whakaariwhite-island-owner-the-buttle-family-declines-to-comment-after-deadly-eruption
Dec 2019
Another tragedy?
People of Whakatane on quixotic quest to recover bodies suffer asphyxiation
yet another example of lax standards and unqualified people calling the shots?..
Yeah, nah
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/405238/live-whakaari-white-island-eruption-day-3
two questions.
1. what is the rush? Given the risk, what is the point of going today instead of waiting? Pike River was different because recovery people weren't allowed in for a very long time, and it's likely that this was in part to prevent investigation of what happened. I'm not seeing that motivation or dynamic here.
2. what should the response be of the various authorities if people go and get into trouble and need rescuing?
Pike River was different because the mines rescue experts believed it was safe to go in right after the initial explosion and the Police stopped them.
None of the expert first responders in this situation are saying that the island is safe enough. Just some armchair warriors.
thanks, I'd missed that nuance.
Conflation is a common tactic of the righties who have been beating their puny chests about this.
Apart from the first responders who already rescued 12 people in helicopters, and presumably have years of first hand experience with the island.
which are saying it is safe?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118103101/whakaariwhite-island-helicopter-pilot-said-conditions-perfect-to-recover-bodies
There have been flyovers today but the geologists note continuing ground tremors and risk of further activity – thus the work and safety side prevents action.
Just not as high as that faced by those getting the burnt off the island, so little wonder a person who was involved then is prepared to get the bodies off as well.
It would seem that your advise is worth about as much as it is accurate.
It’s not their island – it’s privately owned.
it’s not their decision either.
to suggest people do as thy please if they feel it’s right – with a possibility of risk to their safety is absolutely moronic.
Yet if people had not done so it would have been worse on Monday.
Calling someone moronic must be a no-no especially when they are upset about people dying and being injured! It is a case for helping thinking things through and being a bit understanding. Without being judgmental or sour.
It's a messy one, a pilot reckoned the day to get the bodies was yesterday (wind cleared away the ash fumes etc and before today's tremors) – but police drones could not fly till today. And apparently they need to survey the scene of the corpse layout for a coronal inquiry (safest by drone to minimise time on the ground etc) before removing bodies etc.
I called what he was suggesting moronic- and it is. I didn’t call him / her moronic.
I’ll add selfish, poorly thoughtout, stupid and dangerous.
People take personal risks all the time. And there are those advocating banning bullrush as part of their school safety programme. There are those exercising their choices and those who would prevent them, is either moronic or both?
what's the rationale for banning bullrush?
From the mid-1980s some schools decided to ban bullrush because they were concerned they would be held liable when children were hurt.
https://www.google.com/search?q=banning+bullrush&oq=banning+bullrush&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
the biggest complaints were damage to school uniforms…and the cost of replacement
lol, I didn't know that.
Liability is a different issue again. Hadn't thought about that in terms of Whakaari and the police.
It's more workplace safety than liability. There will be an assessment of the tour operators on that side, apart from the coronal inquiry, the police cannot very well breach of that themselves.
However it seems the biggest risks of safe work practice (other staff coming in after they heard of the eruption) were taken by those rescuing people, if they had not done this, more lives would have been lost.
on the basis of what I’ve read/seen so far, I have zero problem with the actions of people in the first hour after the explosion (chopper pilots, boat operators, first aiders).
What Sanctuary was suggesting is something quite different.
it’s interesting to consider that the boat operators probably made the decision to go back without talking to the passengers.
"Yet if people had not done so it would have been worse on Monday."
True. But, that was to save lives, and either needed to happen immediately or not at all, so the justification is for different reasons. It's also valid for people to take action in the moment even if it puts themselves at risk (bearing in mind that the pilots have expertise in assessing risk as well as making judgement calls about that and the value of their own lives). That is different from planning to do something that is dangerous in order to achieve something that can be done at a later date.
What bothers me is:
1/ If the police had of been on in charge earlier, or the chopper pilots not acted so quickly, then the survivors of the blast rescued by the helicopters would most likely have been left to die of their injuries on the island while the cops dithered for "health and safety" reasons.
2/ The rationale behind police decision making these days seems to be a creeping US style thinking that their lives are more valuable than those of the public. Car loads of heavily armed cops cruising South Auckland in black SUVs for vague reasons also seems to just come back to the police adopting a hyper-cautious approach to risking police lives, even if it means others are needlessly killed.
Sometimes people in emergency and rescue services have to take risks. More importantly, sometimes they are willing to risk their lives to rescue people. That is why when they do we call them heroes.
It is sometimes important to empower people to respond to a local disaster with what they consider to be appropriate steps. Imposing a top down, bureaucratic and technocratic solution based on a rigid adherence to rules can sometimes not be the best outcome. If local people are willing to run the low risk they’ll be on the island when it erupts again in order to recover bodies, who is to say they shouldn’t be allowed to?
They are not stupid. They know what they would be going into.
If the police had of been on in charge earlier, or the chopper pilots not acted so quickly, then the survivors of the blast rescued by the helicopters would most likely have been left to die of their injuries on the island while the cops dithered for "health and safety" reasons
I call bullshit on this.
The police have very difficult jobs to do, especially in major situations like this. They don't always do things well, but they often do, putting themselves at risk on a daily basis.
Cheap shots like this are shitty.
Your love of authority doing nothing while hiding behind sophistry is well known Pete, so your reply doesn't surprise me.
We all know it would have played out. After a few weeks, the bodies are recovered and the police declare they most likely all died of unsurvivable injuries during the blast. And Pete George would go, “Thank goodness our police who I trust uncritically have reassured me they didn’t fuck it up and leave people to die, how right they were!”
Good morning. Having a go at each other is not helpful and it bores the shit out of others.
I don't know about that, taking down Pete George is fun game the whole family can play IMHO.
"Your love of authority doing nothing while hiding behind sophistry is well known Pete"
I call bullshit on that too. You're making it up, no evidence, it's false.
"“Thank goodness our police who I trust uncritically have reassured me they didn’t fuck it up and leave people to die, how right they were!”
And on that. That's just pathetic.
The police have an essential role to play in a civil society (perhaps that doesn't apply here), they're not perfect but they're far better than the alternative.
Sanctuary,
What are you basing that on? My sense is that people first at the scene will make their own decisions and that it's generally accepted in NZ that people can choose to risk their own lives in such a situation. Had the first helicopter passing by when Whakaari blew been a police helicopter I would expect them to have done pretty much what the private chopper pilots did. Maybe I am wrong about that, but I'd like to see what you are basing your opinion on.
I'm not seeing the connection. There's a difference between police killing others in an active criminal situation vs saving people's lives in an SAR or first response to emergency situation. Arming cops on the street is a really bad idea, but can you point to cultural reasons within the police that link that to decisions that are made during civil emergencies?
I think it's likely that all agencies now have more formal risk assessment processes, in part driven by legislation. Are we sure the decision to delay recovery of the bodies is on the police alone? What is CD's role in this?
When do you think the tourists should be allowed back? I think the central point here is that we don't know what the risk is. When you say low risk, what are you basing that on? The risk was considered low on the day the volcano blew.
The only private person I've seen saying he wants to go back is the pilot RNZ interviewed. It's a great interview, but I don't think he is saying that it's safe. He's saying that he thinks a 20 minute window would be enough in an unknown safety situation. I'm not sure that 20 minutes would be enough to properly recover the bodies, but I'd be interested if there's been expert opinion expressed on that.
I'm mindful that on the day of the explosion there were all sorts of people on twitter demanding to know why no-one was going back to look for survivors. As it turns out, the first responders twice checked for survivors and made the decision on the ground that there weren't any other than those they were evacuating. The public didn't get told until midnight that the believe was there were no survivors, and even then there wasn't really an explanation about that. But I think it's safe to say the police and CD had their hands full.
In other words, police, CD and geonet/GNS will all have access to information that you and I don't have.
An example of the inadequate official communication that the Police Minister was talking about yesterday?
Not sure. I wondered if Nash was talking about how police were communicating with family of victims.
I assume all the services will review practice, but I'm not sure updating the public on the first evening would have been a priority. Not sure if the first responder pilots also then flew people to hospitals. Might have been a while before police were able to do interviews formal enough to release information to the public. I'm guessing there was a fair amount of chaos given the numbers of agencies and public involved.
Anybody whose duty it would be to rescue them – a duty they can't opt out of. By all means, change the current law and professional standards if that's desired.
And most of us will defer to actual volcano and rescue experts about whether the risk is 'low' thanks.
Risk is a combination of likelihood (being on the island at the wrong time) and impact (effects of an eruption). People and organisations will tolerate a higher likelihood if the impact is low.
A nearby volcanic eruption does not match that calculation. Boiling acid, superhot magma, projectiles and ash flows that nobody can outrun are not things you'd bet against unless you are reckless or stupid. Certainly not something you would bet someone else's life on unless you do not value it much.
Finally , journalists from diverse backgrounds rally to defend Assange in an open letter signed by hundreds
"The journalists write: “We hold the governments of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Ecuador and Sweden accountable for the human rights violations to which Mr Assange has been subjected.”
They cite a powerful comment from Melzer, who wrote earlier this year: “It finally dawned on me that I had been blinded by propaganda, and that Assange had been systematically slandered to divert attention from the crimes he exposed.” The UN official pointed to the role of the corporate press in demonising Assange and repeating the smears against him concocted by the intelligence agencies."
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/12/09/jour-d09.html
Julian Assange will be released from prison and offered all the psychological assistance he requires after Jeremy Corbyn becomes the PM of the UK in a few days from now.
It'll be interesting to see the take of various pop media outlets that have in turn courted him and buried him. Same for the gangs of hand wringing, nose led liberals who couldn't help shove him down a hole fast enough after initially hailing him as a hero.
I'm guessing that this will age poorly and Bills political judgement will be shown to be incredibly misplaced.
Or I might be wrong.
we will know in a few days.
"“A Labour victory would represent a sharp break with neoliberalism, the failed economic orthodoxy of the past four decades, which makes an idol of the “market” and re-distributes wealth and power ever-upward "
https://www.thecanary.co/exclusive/2019/12/10/a-powerful-show-of-solidarity-for-jeremy-corbyn-and-the-labour-party-from-america/
I have been looking at the Irish Potato Famine story and parts of the furore over Ireland in the English parliament are reminiscent of Brexit and the slackness of government where firm resolve to do the sensible as well as the right thing has not prevailed.
Think how the Irish were treated by the UK. There was heavy oppression (austerity) on the population by Brit landlords who ground the Irish tenants down, and took all the profits from their large landholdings away from investing it and growing Irish business, back to Britain.
Landlords in Ireland often used their powers without compunction, and tenants lived in dread of them. Woodham-Smith writes that, in these circumstances, "industry and enterprise were extinguished and a peasantry created which was one of the most destitute in Europe.
And there was export of food from Ireland during the famine which puts a final screw on the horrific tale of misuse of the Irish to the extent they believed that England was planning genocide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)#Irish_food_exports_during_Famine
There were numerous times of hardship but the potato blight arrived in Europe about 1844 and from 1845 to 1851 hit the Irish hard. This from the Wikipedia Famine link below reminds me of the UK hoo-ha over recent years from hardship caused by Margaret Thatcher and the adoption of a dose of austerity medicine to the UK public to Brexit, an attack of hubris on the supposedly seasoned heads in UK government.
In October 1845, Peel moved to repeal the Corn Laws—tariffs on grain which kept the price of bread artificially high—but the issue split his party and he had insufficient support from his own colleagues to push the measure through.
He resigned the premiership in December, but the opposition was unable to form a government and he was re-appointed. In March, Peel set up a programme of public works in Ireland but the famine situation worsened during 1846, and the repeal of the Corn Laws in that year did little to help the starving Irish; the measure split the Conservative Party, leading to the fall of Peel's ministry.
On 25 June, the second reading of the government's Irish Coercion Bill was defeated by 73 votes in the House of Commons by a combination of Whigs, Radicals, Irish Repealers, and protectionist Conservatives. Peel was forced to resign as prime minister on 29 June, and the Whig leader, Lord John Russell, assumed the seals of office.
Wikipedia link on Ireland's background of long-suffering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland) There seems a parallel with Brexit's lack of vision.
A Labour victory with Corbyn in charge would fuck the UK for decades
So BAU then.
A well-reasoned argument from Alan, well done.
Would the Labour party have more chance of winning if Jeremy Corbyn was not the leader?
NZ Labour party changed leaders very close to an election in 2017 with spectacular results?
A couple of days before the election might be leaving it a bit late.
Good point! I was actually more just musing as to if the Labour party had had a different leader for say the last six months would they have more chance?
Almost certainly. But who? And how is the best way to choose that leader?
I'm kinda coming to the view that leader selection processes may have swung a bit too far towards systems that give too much emphasis to the fringes of party membership, and not enough weight to the leader's colleagues (who really are in a better position to assess who actually has the skills to be an effective leader).
For examples of the former, see "Cunliffe", "Little", "Corbyn", "Sanders". For the latter, see "Ardern", "Clark". Though "Clinton" and "Shearer" stand as pretty solid arguments against the latter idea.
I believe they absolutely would have.
corbyn is unelectable.
"The most important conclusion to be drawn from the paranoia into which New Zealand politics has fallen is that its ugly manifestations are driving more and more voters out of their old political pigeon-holes. Those who still see a point in voting are casting their ballots more out of habit than conviction. There may already be an electoral majority in support of a political style that is neither delusional nor irrational.
All it needs is a party."
http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2019/12/delusional-and-irrational-rise-of.html
Chris Trotter advocating for a new political party, in an already crowded field….assuming theres the will what level of support could it expect? or is this NZ First's future when Winston departs?
Colonel Trotter really is struggling to understand today's world through the goggles of his up-the-workers youth. His recent reckons and bedfellows suggest Winston First might be the most comfortable retirement home for him.
That may or may not be so…but the relevance isnt about his personal position but rather what proportion of the electorate share it
Probably. It's not like he can bring himself to support the party in parliament with actual left wing policies.
Trotter's obviously quite at home contributing to whaleoil and now its just as incredulous successor.
what's its successor?
That site they set up by copying all whaleoik's files and contact list, defying the official receiver. Called 'bdf' or something? Same cling-ons, same rubbish.
Is Trotter writing there?
No idea sorry. Not willing to find out. 🙂
lol, me neither.
it's bad enough just contemplating that it might be true.
He's writing there. He's got his own author's page describing him as a weekly columnist with links to everything he's contributed. He's posted something every week since 1 April.
YSB
AOK
Thats not really surprising given his alignment with Jim Anderton's New Labour back in the day…he is , like many i'd suggest, somebody without a natrual political home in todays environment
He doesn't have to cosy up to the Greens to support them on their policy platform. I've long found his negativity towards the left odd.
The Greens are not his home, and id suggest never will be…he is like my parents, an old school social democrat…theres a lot of them about
Yes, my question is more about why he doesn't support the Greens anyway? Where did this political home thing being so exclusionary come from? Lots of people don't have a political home, it's ok to still support parties that are doing good things. The alternative is a fractured left, where too many people think that politics has to be what they want it to be or else (which does appear to be where we are at).
I dont know how old you are but you need to view from the perspective of someone of his generation (im a little younger than him,but not much)….we are all a product of our environment
I'm in my early 50s. I see people much younger than CT doing this too, but he's had longer to figure out the strategy failure in such an approach.
theres no strategy approach…its visceral
CT’s writings are visceral? Ouch!
“theres no strategy approach…its visceral”
I’m sure that’s at least partly true. But then that’s the problem isn’t it. He’s smart enough to understand that strategy matters for the greater cause and that one’s gut can undermine that if not used wisely. He makes his political choices just like the rest of us.
Bowelly.
zing, Andre!
He's of a generation that has, and thus wants to keep, so while a social democrat he was against the CGT because people of his generation did not support it.
He likes to pose with the left, but not if it is not popular with his peers, and as you know a lot of oldies voted for Brexit (for the little England of their youth – nostalgia). His is the nostalgia of one no longer of the left, now a cynical realist broken by struggles lost – tired and conceding defeat.
He is like the American Catholic middle class – once Democrats, but now many vote GOP seduced by being white and middle class thus acceptable to their now WASP brethren. Or like Bryce Edwards as long as he is not actually left advocating, he can be a media commentator too as one of their token lefties. Or like Josie Pagani advocating a Labour tax cut strategy to get re-elected, so we remain with inadequate government funding.
thanks SPC, that makes a lot of sense.
it is a problem…possibly insoluble. We might think we are making rational decisions but I suspect we largely only seek out justification for our gut instincts…and why would CT be any different?
plenty of people know how to use their minds, and use gut and brain in making decisions about how they act.
plenty?…enough to change an election result?
one would hope that a seasoned political commentator like Trotter had a better hold of his reason. Changing an election result happens because of many factors, and the influence on that includes political commentary. Which takes me back to finding it odd that he can’t bring himself to support the party with the most left wing policies, assuming those are his actual values. I suspect what SPC is saying is part of it.
@SPC
think that is a harsh and inaccurate assessment..CT's generation of social dems are by and large unwitting beneficiaries of the asset inflation…indeed many of them are happy to risk their own futures to help their children/grandchildren…there is I fear a deep misunderstanding of the motivations of the older generations
Sure, for a minority of boomers. Most do not vote social democrat – look at the voting statistics – how those born 1948-64 vote.
@SPC…not sure where you get your stats …the voting turnout for that demographic is high but its split is unknown as far as I can see
@weka…a better hold on his reason? you think that commentators are somehow different/unaffected as the rest of us?
I can cite that the Tory and GOP have older voters on their side – and have seen in the past similar stats here. And one would presume that would be the case. But I canna find anything on google search, not sure why.
one should never presume…and was discussing NZ
But one can cite experienced commentators on the local political scene
http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2019/12/driving-us-up-poll.html
again, thats an assumption…is worth remembering that a good chunk of those 'boomers' and pre boomers have voted Labour/left all their lives….old habits die hard
SPC – I as a disillusioned Boomer who have always voted Left, would warn you that human nature is what it is, and that your generations and others are very likely to be just as disappointing as we Boomers have shown to be. We all suffer from the same human afflictions. So don't get too haughty, huh?
Well here is some demographic information, as to age and the oldies …
https://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/how-new-zealand-votes/
https://www.psychology.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/Voter-Sentiment-Demographics-and-Psychological-Correlates-private-1.pdf
Or slightly easier to digest and interactive (i.e. you can play with it): https://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/how-new-zealand-votes/
There’s loads more and that’s just for NZ. Search on “voting preference by age” and you’ll be busy for a while 😉
Edit: snap!
In Vino, why presume I am not just another boomer?
Yeah I found the psychology one first, eyes glazed over it … looked for something else.
I forgot the question 🙁
Good to read you pat having a discussion that doesn't just adopt whatever the conformist view is. I like Chris Trotter because he plays with ideas, looks at what has been done before. Looks at the gap between rhetoric and reality. Sets up strawmen and then takes them down. He exposes himself to ridicule by putting down ideas that others won't consider, but which we need to think about. What Parties say they believe in, what we think of them and their policies, and whether they will be true to their principles, and whether they are practically achievable, it all has to be thought about and sometimes exposed as faulty. It's dirty work but someone has to do it.
pretty meaningless data that SPC….have you actually viewed it?
The bit about over 65's more likely to vote National than Labour. …
I see that state house tenants are considered as likely to prefer National over Labour as over 65s….who'd have thought.
Some surprising stuff, such as over 65's preferring National and Labour to NZF – NZF is not as strong there as their reputation suggests.
Yeah, it’s National 1 and Greens 2nd with state house tenants. Must be those who pay the market rent for a good bones old state house (pre leaky homes era) and who also vote.
lol…its crap
Thanks for posting the graph from the just been UK election…I had already seen it and it holds some useful data about that event. As you have posted it here I assume you are trying to draw some comparison with this thread and the other (so called) graph you linked.
There is no comparison.
Your earlier link (https://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/how-new-zealand-votes/) is an overlay of census data on election results by polling booth which has too many variables and assumptions . It then displays those assumptions with an unquantified graph so we have no way of knowing what it is expressing. Finally there are contradictions and unlikely results that should be ringing warning bells and demand verification by alternate method….in other words…it is crap
@ Incognito…if youre honest with yourself your own posts are likely so
I won’t pretend otherwise.
lol…well it always helps to be aware
Sour Sacha – suck a lemon.
you've been warned before about poking people with a stick. Please stop.
Are you prescribing homeopathy? 🙂
Well since Metirea and Cunliffe were taken out at the knees. And since the managerial set in Labour have well and truly buried any move to democratise the party. And since the only social democrat on the scene is an old school right winger…yeah, there's an almost empty lane waiting to be claimed by simply promoting a social democratic alternative to NZ's woeful liberalism (think Corbyn/Sanders/SNP etc)
yep..thats why I nominated NZ First…sans Winston
Yeah but…are you suggesting Peters is the only old school Tory in the NZ First ranks? That he suppresses a left leaning social democratic tendency within the party? Not seeing it myself, but hey…
No…Peters is old school no doubt…but hes an old school politician…theres a difference between the voter and the voted for.
Winston is a divisive character (personality) but the party has the potential to have a wider appeal…sans Winston. Its basis is old school social democrat…that is not to say I support it but I see the appeal for a demographic
The Tory lead has dropped again in the latest You Gov poll.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Still looks unlikely for Labour – but here's hoping!!
So apparently (just reading this atm) no polls have factored in people under the age of 39 who registered this year. That's about 4 million people 'blanked'.
And if you look at footage of Corbyn in public and contrast it to footage of Johnson…it really doesn't gel with the narrative being spun by pop media outlets. Corbyn draws crowds and Johnson draws jeers.
Earlier today (or was it last night?) I ran a wee thought experiment on how pop media would likely slant stuff if Labour was looking good…
Pop media reflects the interests of elites. And the last thing they want is for a Corbyn led government to be offering the British public the option of remaining in Europe but being free from Europe's economic liberal straitjacket (the one that renders any social democratic policy platform unlawful) – or of remaining in Europe with the straitjacket still on.
People will opt for the first of those options. And that option fucks elites up. (Reversal of all those privatisation cash cows etc)
So to prevent a Labour/SNP majority, it's absolutely necessary for elites to discourage the Labour vote and hope for a hung parliament – hence the "foregone conclusion" bullshit that just doesn't accord with what can be seen at those public events/rallies.
Edit – Hmm, it also appears, if I’m reading things correctly (poll data hurts my head btw) that the polls being reported are generally conducted by way of “online panel”…
Thanks Bill – the youth vote will be crucial for a Labour win. I haven't got my head around how well different polls are measuring this.
A lot has been said about the YouGov MRP model (which currently predicts a Tory win), because 'it got it right last time'. But actually a track record of getting one election right once doesn't mean that much. I looked through the methodology – what isn't clear is when their panel of registered voters was selected (and specifically whether it can include the most recent registrations – perhaps it can't)?
No comments yet on the announcement by Grant Robertson?
This is the best thing that labour has done since forming the current government
We need the list of projects.
If they are to get any poll-reversal upwards they need to be specific and do-able.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1912/S00091/12-billion-in-extra-infrastructure-investment.htm
And I have to ask the bonkers question: if their surplus is that big, maybe they don't need our taxes as much, so maybe they should give some back.
Shit twice today I've thought you belong in the national party. Or are you planning on going full Colonial Viper?
Can see where you're coming from, but a bit harsh lol
Everybody knows you never go full CV.
Would one be aware that they are circling the wormhole ,edging closer to the vortex that sucks them into CV land?
Top form today. onya
You favour tax cuts over hospitals and school maintenance?
It's not Thursday yet ducky.
Mr Jones? You okay?
So if we dig up, as a species, CHx and burn them. And to mitigate the effects we bury, mineralize in carbonated, or other COx aren't we adding hydrogen and removing oxygen from the biosphere? As the sea oxygen depletes, is it a good idea to depend on co2 sequestration, doesn't it create a new problem? o2 loss.
Solution, ban the private automobile globally.
Shane Jones taken from Parliament in an ambulance. All the best Shane.
I was going to ask you why you would fund tarseal of The Lost Highway seeing the gravel was part of the experience. And why you aren't putting that money into investigating a decent road around Raetihi and Whanganui that won't slip into the river. That is really important, not giving the tourists from the cities a nice smooth road. When they are in the backblocks why not let them get the whole experience?
Update
Politics is brutal.
David Duke will be delighted.
Is that a piss-take Joe? It has to be!
Granted, Zionism was an attempt to recast Judaism as a race/ethnicity. So on that front, the Netanyahu's of the world will be well pleased. But…well, what's to prevent an executive order designating Catholicism as a nationality? And why would that be any less absurd?
Serious, and seriously unimpressive.
and
‘
Hate Speaker in Chief
Two days after President Trump delivers a speech littered with antisemitic tropes and memes, two mass shooters motivated by antisemitic views target a Jewish market in Jersey City.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/nyregion/jersey-city-shooting.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/nyregion/jersey-city-shooting.html</a>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/09/trump-israeli-american-council-anti-semitic-claims/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/09/trump-israeli-american-council-anti-semitic-claims/</a>
Anyone know when the UK election results will start coming in, NZT?
Friday night probably, our time. dunno whether it takes them minutes or hours to count the votes.
Looking like mid afternoon Friday (3am UK time).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/10/2019-general-election-uk-vote-result-exit-polls/
Exit polls announced when voting has closed, 11am Fri NZT.
Second UK election question. Who are you all following that's got the good takes?