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6:00 am, June 12th, 2024 - 50 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/350306474/meaningless-political-lobbying-code-plan-unravels?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=4&utm_source=localised_module#cxrecs_s
Lobbiests lobby against the code to control Lobbiests!!!
A useful backgrounder on Kainga Ora. Of a weekend reader length.
National's management of state housing, 2008-2017, was inept.
The problems with Kainga Ora design 2019-2022 (and then consideration of change)
Separation, or differentiation of the provider and urban development roles
The problem of debt cost of works in progress.
The inadequacy of the English solution to the problem (building less), so things get worse in terms of supply, just to make the books look better.
The agenda of Bill English – market rents 1990's (and sales to those who afford to buy), sell off of housing in the Wairarapa to gentrify the area. Government funding of non state providers etc.
English wants them to access more money more cheaply (part of having less state supply to the people – education, health and housing and ultimately faith based provider welfare – social investment and term limits. Boiling the state frog).
What are CHP's.
One thing they need is cheaper access to money. The RBG classifying them as investors is a problem. Will the Oz solution work here, a government guarantee or would Treasury "veto" this?
So, KO would still have a more secure funder and debt model than the CHP.
For mine give the RBG something for ending the investor classification – which is untrue if they have association with government. A mortgage surcharge set by the RBG raises money for government … .
English noted that Kāinga Ora’s build costs seemed to be too high, implying CHPs could do better. MHUD agreed.
A broken model.
KO can have better accounts by doing less – reducing its investment cost and harvest rising market rents (charges tenants income related rent and tops this up to the market rate via government top up) resulting from a shortage. CHP's assisted by government can join such a profitable sector.
This is one of rising property values and rents (landlord CG), lower home ownership, and either more in the state/social housing queue (aging boomers without homes) or alternatives – easy subdivision for small builds on existing sections/shared house ownership/housing on iwi land/incentivising shared housing by allowing owners to take boarders without tax liability/sole parents allowed to have boarders/support for placement of mobile homes on sections/mobile home parks.
The article – The billion dollar problems with Kāinga Ora and why plans to fix it might make the problem worse by Thomas Coughlan at
https://archive.li/f8Vcp#selection-1153.245-1153.274
Thats an under understatement. And Inept ? Hmmm, thats without thinking..(or IMO,knowing) that the Nats knew exactly what they were doing with and to NZ's State/Kainga Ora Housing.
Ironic that Ol' double dipper Bill English toxic thumbs are all over this from start..to finish. I sincerely hope that NActfirst are not the death of it.
Totally ! Blinglish had done very well out of this if one follows him from treasurer to today and his 'business' dealings post parliament.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/hamas-says-it-accepts-un-backed-gaza-truce-plan-with-israel-us-cites-hopeful-sign.html
Presumably the intent is to require IDF withdrawal from Gaza Palestine before the hostage exchange begins.
The Israelis will negotiate for the hostage exchange without intent to leave until that is completed.
It is the game of alpha male posturing – leave before we release hostages, or release hostages before we leave. They must be branches of the same Semite family. Cain and Abel in our time. Pre Islam and the covenant nation, Semites would arrive at a place and exchange females and become brothers. Arabs would do this at an oasis (formalised it as the cult of two female shaped idols in a red tent shrine on the back of a camel). Not in this generation. All that Jewish nationalist and other Semite testosterone boosted by concepts of religious destiny.
Cain and Abel in our time.
Or, rather, Isaac and Ishmael.
Well I have posted about this before….why is there a lag on New Solar and esp on new builds?
And of course Govt gets money from electricity sales. Sadly, now that rio tinto looks to be embedded in NZ (should have been gone years back ! )….IMO we need to look at less household reliance on the Big Power companies.
Friends of mine, admittedly well off, recently built a new home. Solar panels on the roof. Family of 3, 1 is a teenager. Two teslas.
During last winter, their power bill was $6.00 a month.
A lot of housing developments were built with cheap solar hot water units where the roof connections have perished quite quickly in some cases and so people have turned them off cause landlords etc don't want to replace them. There are some lessons to be learned as well.
Key's privatisation of the power companies is one of the biggest impediments to the uptake of solar.
Power shortages are a good thing for shareholders.
Renationalise the power companies and encourage grid tied solar systems. We are at a point now where EVs can supply electricity to a house.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left – Bertrand Russell
April 2024
So the why is political. To delay action for now. And try and change the course for future governments.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/513695/methane-science-already-settled-watchdog-says
June 2024
The CoC, reconsiders – effectively ends inclusion of farming in the ETS – and speculates that the right will take over the world and there will be no obligations to fulfill. Or they can do it by subsidising farmers …
Which suits farmers.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/519313/government-setting-up-smokescreen-to-look-away-from-climate-change-chloe-swarbrick
Not that NZ shouldn't try to do its bit, but it could all be moot anyway if the Arctic were to generate a tera-belch:
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/sea-of-methane-sealed-beneath-arctic-permafrost-could-trigger-climate-feedback-loop-if-it-escapes
Teenagers representative Wayne Langford said that they had done all their homework and understood all the subjects so they didn’t need to do any tests or assignments. They also said because of this new app that was making study so easy that the government should totally buy all farmers beers to go to the party this weekend because they were going to get a job no worries because they were ahead on everything.
Students doing extra cram courses could be heard to mutter ‘Whiny ass-kiss b€+*%’ as they had their 4th cup of coffee.
I heard that idiot and you nailed it.
Wtf is this c&&7 talking about?
We pay our fair share of the ETS, we just don’t want to pay.
And if they had made any progress whatsoever, not just that bullshit they keep saying without any proof about being the most efficient (no reference, no proof) in the world, they’d want the ETS because the market would reward their progress.
At some point very soon internationally consumers are going to look at the NZ prices increased by inflation and backed by farmers who don’t give a f and think I’ll get local fruit rather than this $5 red Kiwi and I’ll get this cheaper Australian manuka honey and this cheaper Australian beef and the New Zealanders overseas won’t go into bat for them because they’re an industry predicated on lying and getting special treatment. Time for beneficiary bashing at the farm gate.
Bet Corin Dann was all over this, like that tenacious bull dog worthy of Morning Report that he is. Bet he didn’t let this guy run his mouth without any meaningful challenge!
From Bernard Hickey:
Or as he later headlined ‘Farmers get free pass AND get subsidy’ and perhaps even a BJ from Muldoon’s ghost! Almost like neoliberal bullshit is entirely for other people.
https://thekaka.substack.com/
Incredulous scientists react:
“I have heard the referral to New Zealand farms being the most carbon emission efficient in the world many times. First question one should ask to understand this is, where do those numbers come from? Who funded the research? And if you look at the limitations of the research would we draw the same conclusions? Even if we are ‘some of the most carbon-efficient’ we are still emitting huge amounts of greenhouse gases as a country.
…
He Waka Eke Noa proposals were inadequate and far from ambitious, so disestablishing that makes sense, but not if agricultural emissions are to not be priced at all.
“Starting fresh after so many years of delay is preposterous.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2024/06/11/farming-to-remain-outside-nzs-emissions-trading-scheme-expert-reaction/
Why would you ever trust an NZ farmer about a damn thing?
And just to remind you:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/519197/flood-damaged-homes-still-in-limbo-no-reason-to-believe-they-will-get-things-done
1500 homes still haven’t had assessments made a year after the floods. Which were made much worse by climate change.
This road was damaged by TWO storms and has been out of action for over two years.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/518516/northland-s-mangamuka-gorge-to-reopen-by-christmas-after-two-year-closure
This is the main route between Auckland and the Coromandel, parts completely washed away. Not hypothetical climate change damage, something that profoundly impacts the local economy. Lucky for those roads that can get fast tracked eh.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499154/waka-kotahi-fast-tracks-repair-of-major-state-highway
State Highway 1 through the Brynderwyns another 2 years.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516774/re-opening-of-state-highway-1-over-brynderwyns-pushed-back-to-end-of-june
And also related our connection between north and south and key to linking SH1 and our rail freight. Still on the lookout for that Toyota.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/131092724/broken-cook-strait-ferry-drifted-a-nautical-mile-towards-rocks
Wonder how this is effecting tourism…
… and we wonder why farmers have a near genocidal distrust of the left?
Eat the food they produce; live off the imports bought with the foreign exchange they bring in and tax the shit out of them while driving down their income at the farm gate; all while trying to tell them how to farm!
Ka-ching!
No we do not. The return on farming is often the CG made on the farm sale – on which there is no tax.
And as the current FF leader puts it, it is not locals telling them how to farm
That said
1.the record of waterway pollution is a then it was … and now it is …. story. From NI lakes to nitrates in Canterbury and then the impact of dairy farming in Southland (livestock in the deep south mud).
2.the growth of the world market mitigates moves away from meat and dairy consumption by those concerned about the industry impact on global warming.
The major problem for farmers is their relationship with banks – as it is for many in business (not financed by loans against a residential property). The issue is borrowing/debt cost.
Hope the love of your life treats you the way farmers have treated NZ over climate change. Just let me keep f- n ya, we’ll marry ya next year! Also, can I borrow 20k? Going to the races with the boys tomorrow…
That genocidal crack is in particularly poor taste considering people have died in these sudden and sometimes unpredictable storms fueled by climate change. And others as I pointed out above have waited over a year just to find out what is happening with their houses. God knows what they’ve been doing in the meantime.
And finally we’ve got to the point passed petulant whining where commercial contracts have been signed requiring climate action and they have penalties for non-action. No? Lalalalalala?
Watch the contortion as the market can decide on all kinds of matters, but bless the farmers who’ve been stuck in the mud since the seventies. Close your eyes and call your MP and when you open them another tax break or subsidy and it all goes away.
These aren’t the days of Lovelock or Peter Snell and the black singlet in the paddock. Called on again and again to meet the challenge of the modern era with a combined front you’ve shirked every time, with many engaging in garbage science and denialism to justify going AWOL.
A little foretaste of how climate change will be accelerated under a hard right European Union and hard right US White House under Trump.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/power-switch/2024/06/11/did-gasoline-win-the-european-election-00162741
Great to see our numbers at the march on the weekend, but very hard not to be pessimistic if the EU really does reverse its combustion engine ban as a result of this hard right electoral reversal.
I do not foresee a hard right EU resulting from the election.
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-11-06-2024/#comment-2002184
The writer is not expecting a reversal. The Identity and Democracy group of Le Pen is outlier still. And one voice in the Peoples Party does not indicate much. The real issue is how they choose to tax Chinese EV and the lobbying of car manufacturers (some want to export to China) as to protectionism and or free trade.
biggest thing that the left could do right now is build bridges with the large numbers of people who are not politically aligned. If we don't make them welcome, the right will. They already are very active on this.
On the right, Orban has made rejection of gender identity theory a central plank of his platform, and has done rather well.
On the left, Wagenknecht has made rejection of gender identity theory a central plank of her platform, and has done rather well, going from a nonexistent party to 6% of the German vote in the EU elections.
Hmm. Allowing entitled men to barge into women's spaces and telling LGB kids they are broken and need to be fixed… seems like an electoral liability across the board.
The Peoples Party increased its number of MP's, despite the departure of Orban's party (which had a reduced vote).
https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/fideszs-exit-european-peoples-party-will-diminish-hungarys-influence-eu
A new breakaway group took 30% of the vote.
It may be Orban’s last term, albeit a new centre-right party is set up to be replacement (and not the left).
https://apnews.com/article/hungarians-vote-orban-war-peace-european-parliament-8b54d0e99166127a4356d3a2d75f0a27
Allowing entitled men to barge into women's spaces
Only an electoral liability thanks to this sort of emotive language being thrown around in soundbites often enough that it triggers sensitive and ignorant people who end up seeing anything to do with transgender people as the biggest crisis facing humanity.
Don't worry, the burning planet will get those awful trans people as well.
Ah, yes, this old line. It’s not about trans people, many of whom agree with me.
It’s about women and their rights.
It’s about children and their rights.
It’s about parents and their rights.
That’s most of the people on the planet.
It’s also an issue that’s highly emotive, with children, sex, and medical malpractice, and people vote on emotion.
I remain of the opinion that it’s a bigger issue than is generally assumed, so unfortunately your detailed and nuanced analysis has not convinced me of your point of view. Onya for trying though!
I will place the responsibility for that firmly with the liberal left who ran No Debate. They're why the current narrative is dominated by social conservatives. Fortunately in the UK, GCFs and other progressive, left, or centrist women and some men, have been doing the actual work of protecting women's and children's rights and many of them know how to do that while protecting the humans rights of trans people.
The big risk at the moment is that those people will get overwhelmed by the reactionaries. None of that was necessary. GC was originally feminist and left wing. The liberal left fucked them over and the current situaiton is what we have been left with.
Are there really that many voters that put "gender identity theory" anywhere near their voting considerations? I talk with lots of people about politics, the topic doesn't come up at all. It's more about socio-economic (work, income, cost-of-living…), health, eduction, environmental, climate and sometimes migration issues. You have to convince voters in those areas to make it to parliament.
I had a quick look at BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht) website trying to confirm that "gender identity theory" is a "central plank of her platform" and couldn't find anything. So probably nowhere near their top 5 priorities.
It's debatable how much BSW is a new party. On paper yes, but it's mainly a split from the party "Die Linke" and Sarah Wagenknecht herself is a household name in German left-wing politics for many decades with a significant number of followers.
I just think it’s been underestimated as an issue because people don’t really want to talk about it or honestly state their views because they’ve seen what happened to people who did. Pileons, career / social consequences , physical attacks. Can’t stop people expressing that view at the ballot box though.
I don't spend any more time on the perceived "gender identity" crises. It's one reason to avoid The Standard lately. So much wasted energy.
Coming back to Orban and Wagenknecht. The areas they clearly overlap and where they probably earned most support on are:
no-one knows, because no-one is asking the question in polling.
But, what we do know is that in the UK, GC positions in both the Tories and Labour was forced to shift because of GC activists, and that is largely because most Brits want trans people to have rights but draw the line at where it impacts on women's rights and children.
The other thing is I follow a shit tonne of GC accounts on twitter, and it is very very common for women in particular to say they no longer know who to vote for. Some have already crossed into voting conservative. Others will spoil the ballot. That's NZ, UK and the US.
This is very concerning. It's clear to me that many women will abandon their lifelong voting habits over this issue and I can tell you categorically that the left loses out on that. Worse, as those women and some men get welcomed by the conservatives, they learn that there are other reasons to stay. That is happening in the context of rising fascism.
The left's blindness on this is a huge problem and as I said to Kay above, I place the blame for that firmly on the liberal left who ran No Debate. It actually scares me how much this is a problem and who much we aren't talking about it.
I've been listening to UK GCs in recent weeks and many are talking about voting conservative now for a range of reasons. I doubt this will cost Labour the election, but there are women ready to tear Labour to pieces if they try and remove women's sex based rights further. They don't care if they get called bigots and transphobes, they know what their priorities are, and the liberal left has completely fucked this up.
No need to ask question / wasting more time about something the majority people are not even remotely impacted by or interested in.
Consider that the way you're dismissing women's genuinely held concern about their rights is basically the same way women's rights have been trivialised throughout history.
It's not important.
Nobody cares (despite evidence to the contrary)
It's a waste of time
"gender identity" in scare quotes, as if it's not a real concept with real societal consequences.
Kay tags in with "it's just emotive, sensitive people, triggered"
All we needed is the word “hysterical” and we’ve got a BINGO.
Basically the standard dismissal of genuinely held concerns that women have been dealing with for literally thousands of years.
Welcome to the new misogyny. Same as the old misogyny, but with glitter.
Every poll that I've seen (UK, NZ, US) shows these things:
1. most people support trans rights
2. most people draw the line when those rights start impacting on women's rights
3. increasingly people are withdrawing support for trans rights because of women's and children's rights being overridden.
Even if you don't care about women's and children's rights, there is a backlash happening against trans people.
You can ignore all that and decide it's a waste of time, but you cannot now say you weren't warned.
I've told you categorically that there is a backlash against trans rights, and it's because most people know that material sex matters. The right are making hay from that, and the liberal left are sticking their fingers in their ears going lalala and blaming feminists.
Just don't come complaining to us when shit goes sideways.
It makes sense, because most people don't support self ID when they know what it means. And we're getting closer to many people knowing what it means.
They got closer to knowing in Scotland when Nicola Sturgeon tried to convince voters that a convicted double rapist claiming identity as a woman should be incarcerated in a woman's prison.
He husband playing fast and loose with Party finances hastened her political demise
I think the game is up tbh, and most people are just going to say nope. NZ is further behind that process. The issue now is whether the reactionary/conservative narrative will dominate, or whether we will get something grounded in comment sense and progressive values.
I also think there are still going to hard battles for feminists. Looking at the UK election and fucking Labour still dithering on what a woman is.
also, as we're seeing in Scotland, the hardcore are going to double down.
Hey Nicola..you following the news?
And yeah, back in the day, I was part of the fightback against the Nats colluding with Skycity.
I def remember ol' sir Key and his fantasy claims..
Something NZ needed..or needs? IMO NO !
New records of both citizens leaving and net loss of citizens within 12 months
Record migrant labour inflow – equivalent to 3 average years in one year (after the dry years April 2020-2022 … ).
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/migration-new-record-set-for-kiwis-leaving-new-zealand-as-exodus-deepens.html
Some extra detail about trends
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/519339/migrant-arrivals-up-25-percent-departures-up-nearly-a-third-in-last-year-stats-nz-figures-show
imagine driving in Palmerston North or into Hastings and seeing no one on the streets, all the shops are empty, every home and workplace, empty. That's what Luxon/Seymour & Peters have managed to do – send the population of Palmy of Hastings overseas in the past year. National – Wave goodbye to your future and your loved ones
I agree with Simon Bridges's assessment of Maureen Pugh's competence, but this is absolutely unacceptable.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350307804/mp-maureen-pugh-allegedly-assaulted-gold-mine-protest
Starts with a can of soup, progressing to blocking, intimidation, and physical aggression with a sign. Where does it end?
All parties need to make a statement that physical violence against elected officials is unacceptable under any circumstances, or we're heading for a Jo Cox situation.
Tomato juice – recently milkshake at Farange.
Yeah it's all a bit shit. If you stop people from speaking, some people will assume they had something important to say that's being suppressed even if they are idiots. Just let people speak and let the idiots become obvious. Particularly applies to Pugh.
I mean, which would you rather watch, Pugh getting bonked by a sign, or Pugh attempting to answer questions about how much arsenic is used in gold mines, where the tailings end up, and how this relates to te waikoropupu springs?
In one situation she can be painted as a hero, in the other, she’s, well, Maureen Pugh.
More likely to a situation where right wing protectors begin to deal to the attackers – with "extreme prejudice" – perhaps?
I doubt this. And, the most likely outcome is an escalation of violence ending in riots. No one wants the violence of the Springbok Tour protests repeated.
However, we may well be heading towards a situation where protestors will be physically separated – by a security fence – from the venue at which they are protesting.
And possibly charged for the required security arrangements (after all, the local Santa Parade has to pay a large chunk of money for road-closure management – why not protestors?)
And arrested for any infringement (blocking cars, intimidating behaviour, etc.)
I don't think that's a good outcome for NZ.
The number of submissions made by citizens on the Fast-track Approvals Bill is more than 25,000.
Is that a record?
Nowhere near. The End of Life bill had around 40K. 80K for 3 Waters. 100K for Conversion Therapy ban.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126378262/recordbreaking-number-of-submissions-on-law-proposing-to-ban-conversion-therapy