Hipkins was also losing his main advantage over National’s leader Christopher Luxon: his personal popularity. He had dropped from 29 to 23 per cent as preferred Prime Minister in the Curia poll, now just three points ahead of Luxon on 20 per cent.
And the Curia poll also hit a record low for those who believed the country was heading in the wrong direction: 65 per cent said it was heading that way, while only 22 per cent believed it was the right direction.
The PM has lost his mana and is now only marginally ahead of Luxon. Two thirds of the respondents reckon Aotearoa is going the wrong way, only a fifth think it's on track. The other 13% either believe its going sideways or deemed the question too hard.
Anyone who can cook up a left-wing win scenario out of this public sentiment are pushing shit up-hill…
See that straight-talking stance he's got going there: tell it like it is. It will be expedient to attract floating voters back to Labour after having alienated them. It will also be unlikely. Boomers will need a substantial bribe, so we could expect Grant to pull a magic rabbit out of his financial hat: rob the poor to pay the rich! Classic neoliberalism.
The PM will be happy with that, knowing that he's out-Luxing Luxon. Labour will leap up & down with excitement, seeing that they will continue to represent the middle class.
The Herald poll bar graph in primary colours displays a precise electorate triad: left/right/neither all rating a third each!
The Financial Times was impressed to see this announcement to the media. I expect most of their media would have agreed with him that they did indeed know that.
However there would inevitably be some who would wonder, knowing that any statement from the Conservatives was probably untrue.
I suspect their media also contains hard-core sceptics operating from down their personal rabbit-hole – immediately realising that the official denial meant the govt really was Amazon. These folk would jump onto the internet to spread the word…
Three's political editor has a farming tail wagging Labour dog theory:
Behind the scenes, I'm hearing it was the risk of revolt from the farmers that wrecked this one. While $5 million in wealth sounds like a lot to most New Zealanders, a bunch of dairy farms would've been captured and Hipkins didn't count on his ability to sell it in a close election campaign.
So Hipkins believes dairy farmers vote Labour & freaked out about the wealth tax, realising it would force them to vote National. I'm impressed. Such laser-like political logic would have been way over the heads of most Labourites, I'd have thought.
Heaps of farms are held in trusts as well, there's no doubt it would be problematic to levy a fairly significant tax on what is productive sector in terms of export dollars.
It's the unproductive stuff we need to figure out how to capture and ideally make things like housing far less of an attractive short term investment vehicle.
Easier just to say everyone is wealthy and tax them.
Even with a sarc tag this would be a disingenuous comment. There is nothing ‘easy’ about the Greens’ Tax Policy, for example. Your disagreeing views are starting to straddle into obnoxious resistance.
Sorry for leaving off the sarcasm tag. I did mean it sarcastically.
I am entitled to my views. if I want to express them sarcastically then I will. I happen to think that the Treasury and IRD work on high net work individuals is better. That is not resisting just saying someone else got some thing 'more righter' (sic)
I have been putting forward other ideas that I hope will be looked at & will have a better chance of success. High net worth people should pay their share and if other taxes are slotted in at home sale or death waypoints those of us less financially endowed can too.
The Green party wealth tax failed in my view
1it included the family home
2 if they were to include the family home the point at which the tax came about needed to be much higher.
3 I still find the inclusion of KS problematic bearing in mind that those who took it out were probably responding to Govt signals that govt funded national Super may not be affordable in the long term,
and
it makes economic sense to do this.
NB in its work looking at high net worth individuals the figures discounted the value of the family home. That seems a fairly good sign to me that those investigating this had a pretty good understanding of the psyche of NZers as far as aspiring to buy/live in our own piece of dirt.
While I am glad that the wealth tax idea was knocked out there are still good policies in the Greens manifesto for those of us wanting to opt for the Labour/Greens combo.
And again, you misread the comment or chose to ignore the part(s) that you dislike. This is becoming an issue in discussions on this topic but I’m also starting to wonder more about your contributions to other discussion threads on other controversial topics here on TS. Note that my concern doesn’t relate to disagreeing opinion, counter-arguments, or discerning voice but to pattern behaviours that are not conducive to robust grown-up constructive debate. I refer to Lprent’s recent comments for further context.
Your comment was disingenuous, with or without sarc tag.
Everybody is free to put forward their views & opinions here. In fact, we welcome & encourage this in the expectation that it generates robust debate. People who have no arguments (left) sometime resort to disingenuous comments and this can turn into obnoxious behaviour.
The Wealth Tax proposals would affect approximately 0.5 to 0.7% of people, give or take, depending on the proposal. This is miles off being “everyone’, as you sarcastically implied.
Several times you have deflected & diverted to the example of those 311 of the wealthiest families in NZ that generally have a net worth of more than $50M. It is disingenuous to suggest that tax policy should focus or target on only those families when it is the findings of this research that underpins much of the WT proposals. I note that these are families, not individuals, so you are comparing apples & oranges, again.
NB in its work looking at high net worth individuals the figures discounted the value of the family home.
Citation needed. It’s irrelevant anyway for the purpose of that research.
“NB in its work looking at high net worth individuals the figures discounted the value of the family home.
Citation needed. It’s irrelevant anyway for the purpose of that research.”
I have already linked to this today.
The papers show that Treasury estimated a tax on individuals with assets of over $5 million, not including their family home, would hit only 25,000 individuals or 0.5 per cent of the total population. However, that group would have assets totalling $5 billion or 26% of all the assets held by individuals. Nevertheless, it could raise $3.8 billion a year by 2025 and allow tax reductions for low income taxpayers. But the Prime Minister,ruled it out in late April and even more emphatically yesterday.
The figures that are covered in this is 25,000 people with assets of over $5M. It excludes the family home and could raise $3.8billion pa by 2025.
So even considering the wealth of these 25,000 the regulators feel that including the family home is not on. They may be more in tune with the known psyche/social/historic relationship that Kiwis have with home ownership.
Census data shows that homeownership peaked in the 1990s at 74 percent and by 2018 had fallen to 65 percent of households, the lowest rate since 1951. However, homeownership rates appear to have been more stable between 2013 and 2018.
Looking at those who owned more than one property ie excluding the family home, may include some of the ones already caught in the Treasury figures. It gives an idea of where to look now, possibly, if there is a correlation between owning more than one property and ghost or empty houses. Taxing empty houses may be worth looking at.
One such analysis, which was based on Land Information New Zealand and Companies Office data, found that 13.2 per cent of property was owned by people who had two properties while 6.5 per cent was owned by people who had three properties.
These are the world-wide figures for home ownership.
Even noting that home ownership rates have fallen in NZ, it is still a majority.
I feel we need to work so all have the chance to home ownership. This should not be taxed.
Or have a rental market that is stable, possibly including more institutional investors, so people can rent for long periods of time and have stability. They have the option then of home ownership or renting without being at the whim of a private LL who may want to cash up.
I assume you’ve read those Budget papers released by Treasury and you’ve seen that Treasury advised against the exemption of the family home with some strong arguments.
The irony of your irrational resistance to including the family home in a Wealth Tax, which would only affect 0.5 or 0.7% of people, i.e., the wealthiest of all, is that it could increase inequity and move home ownership further out of reach for more Kiwis.
Including the family home in a WT is not a disincentive for home ownership, not even for those wealthy individuals. It is a fact that Capital Gains are a major source of un-taxed wealth in NZ. To wean off Kiwis from investing or speculating in property, including the family home, and instead investing in productive enterprises is something I do advocate unlike you, it seems.
I won’t even go into the effects of your stance on inter-generational wealth transfer among the well-offs by exempting the family home.
The absolute majority of home owners in NZ would not be affected by a WT under the proposals that we have seen. Your resistance is based on fear and thus is irrational.
If you are worth $2+M then you can afford to pay a WT. End of.
The figures that are covered in this is 25,000 people with assets of over $5M. It excludes the family home and could raise $3.8billion pa by 2025.
How does this lift everyone out of poverty?
The GP budgeted for $15.48B in 2024/2025 via a wealth tax, tax on trusts, and a change in companies tax rate.
That's what was needed to lift people out of poverty. Your figures are designed for an approach that lifts some people out of poverty and leaves the rest behind. That's horrible.
that doesn't adequately explain why a personal home should be excluded from a wealth tax.
Houses always cost money and yet people with over $2m are making far more in capital gains than it costs to maintain a house.
Houses do generate income, via capital gains. It's not weekly income but it is untaxed wealth accrual that most definitely people benefit from compared to people who don't own a home or who do but have assets less than $2m.
That's incorrect. Unrealised capital gains on residences is not income.
Many make the assumption that capital gains is guaranteed. Many home owners buy where they can afford or where it meets their life priorities (ie. close to family), and not necessarily in places with high capital gains.
Primarily, the current way of thinking about this issue is this:
Successive governments (both left and right) while pontificating about housing costs, have not prioritised this during their terms. In fact, most actions have been supportive of increasing prices and housing cost inflation, perhaps because it has been a driver of an economy that looks successful. However, let's ignore this.
Despite the failure of those successive governments to rein in housing costs, the state housing available has diminished as the population has grown, leaving the opportunity for private landlords to take a greater share of the rental market, which has also increased as home ownership becomes more difficult.
Half-hearted attempts to improve existing housing stock has been enacted by legislation, which shows the separation between talk and walk for the state, as they have repeatedly recused themselves from meeting the standards they have set.
Those who have repeatedly been identified as not paying income tax from flipping houses, by the mechanism of using it as a primary residence for three months, continue to be able to use this without fear of censure by the IRD. This is a data search for government departments to address, yet it remains a low or no priority area – even as talking heads keep talking about those who are making money by doing so.
Landlords who perform the service of providing housing of a good standard, and an affordable price are lumped in with non-landlords who take advantage of housing scarcity and provide unacceptable accommodation at ridiculous prices. The Tenancy Tribunal is either not able to deal with the complaints, or the complaints are not being made. Also, it may be that the Tribunal should pass on the worst cases to the court system, so that fines and sentences are immediate.
The vilification of landlords begins with the assumption that all landlords behave as the lowest common denominator, despite the fact that housing is a service provided.
Despite housing remaining a high cost, a removal of an existing business expense of bank interest is considered justified. Although every other business is able to claim this real cost of providing services. The only reason for this is that the capital gains of housing is now expected to keep increasing significantly and there are those that view this as immoral – even though individual investors do not play a part in this increase. However, if the result is not a reduced profit margin, but an actual detour into loss – then landlords will have to either subsidise the cost of providing housing to others, or will have to raise the rent to bring the business back into equilibrium. This move treated landlords as flippers who were avoiding capital gains tax, rather than the preferred type of private landlord who provides a good service, and ran their tenancies as a business.
That perspective once entrenched was destined to move onto any property owner, whether flipper, landlord or homeowner, and so it has come to pass.
Right, let's look at property prices in Auckland over the last ten years:
So the deposit alone will have lost earnings over this ten year period.
Best case scenario, if the house was purchased with cash, using the same interest rates the loss in interest is;
$570,000 – $279,774.63
While the capital value of the house has increased, the material depreciation would have decreased unless money has been spent on maintaining the property to the standard in which it was purchased.
A conservative estimate for house maintenance is 1% of the house value annually;
For simplicity I'll use only the purchase price rather than increase the value each year. Using the same calculator parameters, but with a yearly compound interest:
$5,700/year – over ten years with lost interest – $76,872.20
Not yet calculated is other associated costs such as insurance, and rates.
Using low 2023 rates of $2,400 to adjust for the fact they are not 2013 rates,
and an estimate of $200/month for home insurance will bring the annual rates and insurance bill to $4,800.
Put this into the interest calculator as above and:
After 10 years the cumulative cost is: $64,734.49
So, this is a best case scenario, that assumes no borrowing from the banks, but takes into account conservative lost interest.
It also assumes no material improvements in the property:
$279,774.63 Full purchase price lost interest
$ 76,872.20 Maintenance 1% incl lost interest
$ 64,734.49 Rates & Insurance incl lost interest
$421,381.32 Cost of owning home purchased for cash over 10yrs
Which is not far off the increase in capital value: $425,000
In essence, the "income" you refer to comes in @ $3,618.68 over ten years, or $361.87yr.
If a mortgage is involved, you can see how this creates a deficit for home owners in terms of financial benefits.
I would say that many average homeowners who live in their own homes, are paying out more for that decision than they are receiving in capital gains. The above calculation may indicate why. Many of those with a mortgage pay more for their housing than they would pay in a similar rental.
Let's not also forget that the hope is that housing prices decrease for all, and some have had significant losses in their investments recently:
"Currently, Auckland house prices have fallen 23.17% from the peak of the market in Nov 2021 through to May 2023."
Not minus, a obviously confusingly placed hyphen – referring to the usual deposits of either 10% or 20% of the purchase price, so:
Therefore, "10% – $57,000 – $27,977.46"
meant 10% deposit = $57,000 which if placed in a 4% (I took it as 5% with 1% going to IRD) compounding interest account would have generated $27,977.46 in interest over the ten year period.
Homes are homes not $$$$$ making ventures to bring in money.
Family homes provide stable places to live, bring up a family, stay in a community and be able to contribute to it.
People who own more that one home are looking at the $$$ side or it may be an extension to the family home concept in having a bach or crib (though I don't find that very persuasive)
Renting in NZ can be fraught with non professional or non institutional landlords leading to many people not having the ability to stay in one suburb (schooling etc) let alone one place.
I linked to a paper about the UKs housing and the need to provide more renting accomodation and this discusses focussing on instituinal investment
NZ has had a long social history of citizens being encouraged to own their own homes/properties including
1 legislative action over the years ranging from the breaking up of the great estates in the 1890s (when parts of NZ were on track to becoming little Englands with a built in tenant/landlord class and a farm owner/farm labourer class.
2 Home ownership was felt to be a just reward to be offered to returned soldiers after both WW1 & WW2 (particularly) Some times loans, some times sections/houses.
3 through to the Govt selling sections, houses, offering home loans, offering topped up savings schemes for deposits through the old NZ Post. Needless to say this all came to a grinding halt with the neo-libs. "not the role of Govt to encourage the flow of money anywhere other than the market' etc etc plus other rubbish
I hope that gives some indication of why I believe that treating capital gains as income – when there is no income – is an ill considered approach.
This to me has an impact like the story about little boy and the Emperor without clothes. Calls it like it is.
I must say this is one of the first that I have read that actually looks at what is proposed without name calling, 'misunderstanding' saying people don't understand links, connections and is short on rhetoric (this is a good thing)
Then read mine about the history of encouragment to buy a family home here in NZ that has been a feature since the 1890s at least and probably before that under the various provincial govts.
Then reflect on why the proposal to include the family home, at the least, made it doomed to failiure once it got out into the electorate. There are other oddities.
I feel this odd and ill thought out policy 'queered the pitch' and 'frightened the horses' so much that Hipkins has needed to squash speculation. In doing so he has had to rule out (again) the one that Treasury had been working on that had a higher assets limit $5m, did not include the family home.
The papers released yesterday include a series of technical papers addressing the issues a wealth tax would involve, but there was a strong undertone within them that both Treasury and Inland Revenue could see endless complexities in trying to introduce the tax and doubted it would achieve the revenue gains the Government hoped. https://www.politik.co.nz/labours-secret-tax-plans/ | Politik
I think we are well rid of the threat of this policy and it opens the door to a mature discussion on 'what is wealth?' cf The Greens say $2m and The Treasury said $5m. Knowing that The Treasury had access to much more quality information from other Govt depts and seemingly a better handle on what IRD/The Treasury called 'wealth' the higher figure is more like it. Productive industries like farms and factories though could easily top the $5m mark.
As Harman says…….'endless complexities in trying to introduce the tax and doubted it would achieve the revenue gains the Government hoped'.
So let us turn our minds to other ways to alleviate poverty, to make sure our overall taxation is fair and that it generates enough to meet all the policies of Govt including alleviating poverty. The Greens policy was silent on
why the wealth tax had been chosen
what other types of tax had been looked at and why they were discarded
why an additional tax was needed in any case ie with Vote: Govt reordering could alleviating poverty have been done in some other way?
The paper on high net worth is much more nuanced in saying that the high net worth individuals were wealthy but this was often from running productive units….business, farming ect.
Most of the capital gains made by the researched families came through increases in the value of businesses they own or control.
Heaps of farms are held in trusts as well, there's no doubt it would be problematic to levy a fairly significant tax on what is productive sector in terms of export dollars.
It's the unproductive stuff we need to figure out how to capture and ideally make things like housing far less of an attractive short term investment vehicle.
I think there is possibly a case to be made about farms, but the problem is farms have also had massive property capital gains in the past few decades and that is wealth. Some farmers can sell their farms and never work again. Other farms have huge debt because they believed that industrial dairy was the way to go. They won't be paying the wealth tax but the farmers in between might struggle.
Some of these farmers work really hard with living expenses being funded via a current account through the year and paid off after wool/meat/sales and only being able to pay themselves for 40 or 50 years of hard work after the property is sold. Even then many leave money in and don't get the full amount, forgiving any debts at death. Wage and salary earners usually get more than just their living expenses met.
I think many people seem to have some odd ideas about what and how other people live.
The papers show that Treasury estimated a tax on individuals with assets of over $5 million, not including their family home, would hit only 25,000 individuals or 0.5 per cent of the total population. However, that group would have assets totalling $5 billion or 26% of all the assets held by individuals. Nevertheless, it could raise $3.8 billion a year by 2025 and allow tax reductions for low income taxpayers. But the Prime Minister,ruled it out in late April and even more emphatically yesterday.
My opinion is that the Greens wealth tax lost it once the family home was included. It might have been less controversial had the family home been excluded.
Ok, so you clearly don't understand the political argument around poverty and the wealth gap.
Capital gains on housing is a large part of why many people live in poverty. The increases in the property market drove up house prices and rents. Some people did very well out of that, and many people can no longer afford to feed and raise their kids.
Labour's response is to raise wages, and they've done a good job on raising the minimum wage. But that hasn't kept up with the housing costs. They've also raised some benefits, but again, it's not kept up with housing costs and never can. This is a political choice to leave a lot of people living in poverty.
Some possible solutions:
crash the property market (no-one wants this).
Slowly drop the property market (eg over a decade) while raising wages and benefits (the GP did some work on this when Turei was co-leader, but it's not politically viable).
tax wealth and replace core benefits with a GMI, use rent caps and other tools to hold rents steady while incomes catch up.
Ok, so you clearly don't understand the political argument around poverty and the wealth gap.
Pity responses are more and more being phrased like this rather than acknowledging that the questioner did understand poverty/wealth conundrum but has disagreed with The Greens suggested solution.
In saying this you are using the great TINA (there is no other alternative) principle that in a quality debate gets you nowhere. If the policy got anywhere near The Treasury, Treasury would sniff out a TINA policy from a 1000 paces.
Because there are other alternatives – The Greens had chosen the wealth tax. And no-one seemed to know why, at least not on here.
"My opinion is that the Greens wealth tax lost it once the family home was included. It might have been less controversial had the family home been excluded."
The wealth tax is a strange beast anyway, but I addressed some of the issues regarding capital gains on the home as income here:
All good. I tried to be as conservative as possible, and it assumes perhaps a fairly high interest rate (I took it as 5% with 1% going to IRD), but it is also very low on maintenance estimates etc, so I think it balances out.
As soon as you've taken a loan out for the mortgage, the costs grow quite significantly, and given that most people with a mortgage pay more to service it than renters – it shows clearly the problem with assuming capital gains leads to material benefits for home owners.
in 2013, (notwithstanding how that bulk investment would affect the value), the purchase price of that median Auckland house would now be worth: $7,735,812
That was posted to this site several times last election, and probably the one before that too. The usual response of the people: doan wanna.
That's the amusing thing about the Greens' tax strategy – those most likely to benefit matches those least likely to vote. I suspect the Greens do actually know that, and are yielding to the traditional socialist stance out of their inner need to signal that virtue.
Feeling good defeats political logic. Morally righteous defeats success. But hey, always possible that the electorate could prove me wrong…
Hipkins killed any hope of that yesterday. No really he did. We care deeply about policy unlike the easily conned boomers who fall for every scam and conspiracy online, we see through political bullshit.
We are renters ffs. We want a capital gains tax and to sock it to the rich.
He basically told every zoomer and millennial to go fuck ourselves because none of the policies we care about in housing or tax will ever happen under him, he basically told us it doesn't matter left wing party you vote for, it ain't happening, "end of story"
Get rid of that muppet.
That budget he canned would have labour polling in the fucking 40s for a few weeks.
No political instincts, no charisma, no spine and he takes weeks and weeks to make decisions about his errant ministers.
I am on your side Corey about renting and not home ownership for your generation. Two step children and I am really not sure how they will manage. We give them as much help as we can.
But I have to object to your potrayal of boomers who 'fall for every scam and consipiracy theory on line". Where's your evidence for this? It didn't look to me like there were a whole lot of boomers at parliament (the protest) and as far as I know most boomers got the covid jab.
Having read the piece that Denis put up earlier (the interview with Sir Geoffry Palmer) I was reminded how in my childhood we would never lock our doors. What has changed? Don't know. I was a working class kid and was housed cause of the state house building programme. The conditions we lived in would be considered overcrowding now.
The solution to the housing crisis that is most likely to work is to flood the market with housing. Labour have been unable to do it.
So roll Chippy, put Grant in for the election and give something new groundbreaking and positive a real shot?
Perhaps better than going down as National lite and continuing to have little or nothing to show from the Ardern years in terms of significant change to inequality.
Plus first openly gay PM and with plenty of experience on how to do the job.
That’s a very casual dismissal of Grant as a ‘diversity pick up.’ If he wasn’t gay, I’d suggest he’d have been a shoo in as leader much earlier in the piece.
And the policies are exactly my point. Clearly there has been a movement in Labour to address inequality and Hipkins has made it a no go.
It would be a chance to front tax reform already prepared for by the revenue minister.
The quote here was a wealth tax was over 50% popular. If that’s true don’t be out of step with the other countries.
Otherwise the gap between Chippy and Steven Joyce begins to look less than that between him and his party.
I don't think G.R has any support from the public other then those that reflexively vote Labour.
Put G.R in the leader spot and i am taking bets that Labour could fall below Cunliffe efforts2014, Labour got about 25.1 %? And god only knows how low Andrew Little polled when they pushed J.A to the spot of leadership in order to win an election.
Chippie is the best atm i think they have, and he is about as exiting as is stale white toast. Untoasted.
Neither of you read the comment- clearly with Minister Parker’s report there’s been preparation for some redistributive tax and support within Labour for that. That would be the basis for proposing the new leader. To potentially follow through on a core policy.
and @Jack you ever watch Key in the house?
Grant can be an effective communicator, but has been inside treasury and not thinking outside of Wellington. Remember him standing out on that pub politics show waaay back with Wallace Chapman.
Grant to me looks like he is ready to sign out. Just my opinion, but we are not seeing much of him of late and he is not standing for Wellington Central and going to be a list MP. Bets on that if Labour loses he will walk
Guess I was seeing the possibility of it as a Barristan Selmy or Jora Thormont type mission. Among which Labour finance ministers does he want to be remembered? It’s all a lot of faff, but so is getting into politics.
He and David Parker have already suggested they disagreed with Hipkins, or at least Hipkins says it was his decision. Enough of these captain’s calls. We’re not a presidency. They only work if his whole team, many of whom won’t be back, support his stance. He can’t say it’s a captain’s call unless the whole team goes along with it in a parliamentary democracy.
When considering National's boot camp idea, I think it is very important to consider the specifics of the proposed program before making broad judgements.
I checked with Chat GPT about the effectiveness of boot camps. It came back and said that the evidence is mixed on boot camps that focus on physical exercise etc, and that there isn't much evidence that they are any more effective than other interventions.
But then I asked, what if the focus is on addressing education and drug addiction issues and social support is provided for youth when they return to the community. (as is the case with National's proposal). Here is its response below:
That's a very important question. Research consistently shows that comprehensive, multi-faceted interventions that address a range of needs and issues have the greatest potential to positively impact youth offender outcomes, including reducing recidivism.
Education: Many young offenders have low levels of educational attainment, so providing educational opportunities can be critical for their future success. This can help reduce recidivism by providing them with more opportunities for employment and a better socioeconomic status, both of which are often correlated with lower crime rates.
Substance Abuse Treatment: Many youth offenders struggle with substance abuse issues. Evidence-based substance abuse treatment, including both pharmacological and behavioral interventions, can therefore be an important component of reducing recidivism.
Social Support: A strong network of support can be critical for youth offenders returning to their communities. This might include mentoring programs, family-based interventions, and community reintegration programs designed to help youth navigate the challenges they face after release.
Programs that address these issues as part of a holistic intervention are more likely to be effective than those that only focus on one aspect. The "Risk-Need-Responsivity" (RNR) model is a widely recognized framework in the field of criminal justice that emphasizes the importance of addressing individual's risk factors, needs, and their ability to respond to interventions.
That said, the specifics of implementation matter a great deal. Not all programs are created equal, and it's important for programs to be based on solid research, well-implemented, and regularly evaluated for effectiveness. It's also important to consider the specific characteristics and needs of the individual youth, as different interventions may be more or less effective for different individuals.
As always, it's crucial to look for up-to-date, peer-reviewed research when considering the effectiveness of specific interventions or models.
This response is very much in line with my understanding of the situation. So, if a program has these elements, then it is far more likely to be successful than the traditional boot camp model.
I agree with what you follow it up with, but especially your paragraph here:
"That said, the specifics of implementation matter a great deal. Not all programs are created equal, and it's important for programs to be based on solid research, well-implemented, and regularly evaluated for effectiveness. It's also important to consider the specific characteristics and needs of the individual youth, as different interventions may be more or less effective for different individuals."
So collective web wisdom is that boot camps suck but investing money into proper rehabilitation and social services work…
Which party do you think will actually do the stuff known to work? And which one will throw kids into an army camp, talk about setting up the other stuff and then never actually do it because of stuff….
Young Offender Military Academies, would be set up by the Ministry of Justice in partnership with the Defence Force, for young serious offenders aged 15 to 17 to spend up to a year. They would include schooling, counselling, drug and alcohol treatment, mentoring, and cultural support, and a case worker will be assigned to the family.
ChatGPT ??? A completely reliable system prone to making shit up. Generally it seems to feed back what the questioner wants. I’d want to look at the exact search statements to determine flaws. But that lack of references tends to indicate that this is likely to be complete bullshit. Ask for pinpoint references and then check them.
However, I’ve seen about 3 or 4 rounds of boot camp type proposals go through so far in the last 40 years. What I always notice is that they are invariably set up on the absolute cheapest possible basis. Their operational costs were a tiny fraction of the cost of (for instance) basic training by the military. Their setup costs were tiny as well.
Certainly the last round of NationalAct ones were. All that have tried to implement were complete failures.
Education is really expensive, especially when you’re looking at kids without basics and at varying levels. That is before you even look at the social and mental deprivation interfering with education.
Substance abuse is also bloody expensive, especially providing the on-site facilities for emergency treatment and getting staffing.
Social support – again expensive and really hard to setup in community. Typically this would take quite some time to set up. And it’d probably have to localised so it’d need to scattered widely. The probability of being able to use existing social services is minimal – they’re overstretched already. This is a whole new country wide program.
Whatever else is used in a boot-camp. To date this has mostly been people shouting. That was cheapish, but completely ineffective.
So until ActNational announces their programme setup and per person budget, it is pointless considering it. I’d bet we never see anything over the next 100 days. To date they have only ever provided day-care levels of funding.
So this is just a corflute slogan policy with a picture of the Luxon dimwit next to it.
A separate question is if the boot-camp idea would be effective at all. I consider that to be highly unlikely as well. In my opinion as a ex-soldier who has done a real boot-camp and as someone who spent a number of years writing military training programs, it is highly unlikely.
There is a reason why our military is so damn picky about who they induct and how they train them. It is a highly expensive operation. Doing a boot-camp for teens who don’t want to be there and who aren’t selected as being trainable is a few orders of magnitude harder and more expensive.
Speaking as a programmer, relying on ChatGPT for research without thoroughly checking the sources of what it produces is the action of a gullible idiot. Ask it for pinpoint reference links and then check them.
relying on ChatGPT for research without thoroughly checking the sources of what it produces is the action of a gullible idiot. Ask it for pinpoint reference links and then check them.
Yeah, I would agree with you normally on this. Except, I wasn't just relying only on Chat GPT. I was also relying on a lecture I remember during my Masters years, when we had a lecture from a guy who runs an institution in the US for youth on the verge of serious prison time as a last intervention.
He was saying it was easy to get amazing change while the youth were in the institution, but the changes evaporated once the youth returned to their communities. So, they had to do a lot of community intervention and provide a lot of community support to get the changes to stick more reliably.
Therefore, so far as National's plan goes, I agree with it in principle. But, whether it will be done well enough is another matter. These sort of interventions are incredibly expensive. So, if the community side of the intervention is only at a superficial level, then I doubt it will work.
I posted about the Limited Service Volunteer programme below, and one aspect that does seem to be positive is that IF a volunteer does go on to enlist, they have a fully functioning community around them from that point on, that allows them to make changes.
Providing a supportive environment post intervention is the most difficult part of supporting change.
And, I just asked Chat GPT for supporting studies. Here was the result:
Absolutely, here are a few studies and reports as of my knowledge cut-off in September 2021, related to the points mentioned:
Education: A report from RAND Corporation, "How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?" (2014), discusses the positive effects of correctional education on reducing recidivism and increasing employment.
Substance Abuse Treatment: A paper by Mitchell et al. (2007) titled "Does incarceration-based drug treatment reduce recidivism? A meta-analytic synthesis of the research" found that prison-based substance abuse treatment was associated with reduced post-release recidivism.
Social Support: In the study "Effects of mentoring on post-release outcomes: findings of a longitudinal study in England and Wales" (2019) by Shapland and Bottoms, the researchers found that having a mentor can significantly reduce reoffending among young offenders.
Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model: A paper by Andrews and Bonta (2010) titled "Rehabilitating criminal justice policy and practice" provides evidence for the effectiveness of the RNR model in reducing recidivism.
Remember, ongoing research in this area may provide newer insights, so it's always good practice to look for the most recent studies on the topic. Also, these studies provide evidence based on large populations and may not apply equally to every individual case. Interventions should always be tailored to individual needs and circumstances.
[This is not good enough. You know that you must provide links to material you quote or cite.
Also, you seem to be new to using ChatGPT and an ignorant tool using an ignorant tool. Lprent has already commented on your ignorance.
Ask it for pinpoint reference links and then check them.
Responses from ChatGPT, for example, can sound very compelling & convincing and it is easy to be fooled by this. ChatGPT is also prone to what is called ‘hallucinating’, which means it can generate utter BS.
You are in Pre-Mod until you’ve provided links for your alleged sources and checked them.
You cannot hide behind responses from ChatGPT or any other GPT tool. You write & submit the comments and thus they are yours and your responsibility.
This Mod note is mostly educational & instructional because I suspect the use of GPT and other AI tools will become more common here on TS and people have to be aware of the pitfalls, just as they are about using material sourced from MSM and SM.
In other words, this is not personal but a precedent/reference point for future moderation – Incognito]
This study relates to education in correctional facilities rather than boot camps. But the key point is that dealing with educational deficiencies reduces offending.
Inmates who participate in correctional education programs had a 43 percent lower chance of recidivating than those who did not — a reduction in the risk of recidivating of 13 percentage points.
and
Two juvenile correctional education programs show promise: Read 180 and Florida's Avon Park Youth Academy.
The second study considered drug interventions in incarcerated communities, including including theraputic communities and boot camps. Positive results in reducing reoffending for theraputic communities. Mixed results for boot camps.
Because National's plan includes remedial education and drug interventions, plus social support, rather than the traditional fitness regime associated with boot camps, I would argue the plan proposed by National is more akin to theraputic communities than boot camps.
This study again found that education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments. Although not directly related to boot camps, the similar principles are likely to apply given that in both circumstances, the interventions will apply to confined individuals.
Consequently, I think it is reasonable to argue that any program that includes these elements whether in prison or some other setting where individuals have been confined due to their offending will likely be more effective than merely locking people away or putting them through a fitness regime in the context of a boot camp.
[You made an effort to provide 3/4 links; where’s the 4th link?
The link for the 2nd study goes to an Abstract only; where’s the full study report?
You made an effort to ‘check’ the source material by skimming the key findings and/or abstracts, quite possibly relying on and reiterating what ChatGPT had already generated for you, and I doubt you read those two publications that were 17 pages (13 + 4 pages of references) and 156 pages long, respectively.
For example, where in the study by Andrews and Bonta does it say that “education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments”? It may well be in there somewhere, but the onus is on you to point us to it rather than making us read the whole paper for ourselves (and then coming to a different conclusion).
You don’t seem to be aware that ChatGPT may be intrinsically biased because it is trained on huge volumes of text found on the internet. In addition, you may have increased any bias through your lines of questioning to ChatGPT.
Your selective material, selective quoting, and super-superficial ‘analysis’ suggest that you were simply searching for stuff that confirmed your own bias. You used this as an excuse to spread NACT talking points & propaganda here on TS.
You are trying hard to merge & marry NACT & your apparent preference of boot camps with the findings of those studies when there’s in fact little to no support for this in the material. If I’m incorrect then point to the relevant sections on boot camps in those studies. As far as I can tell, the available evidence in the material you provided is negative re. boot camps and even shows they are counter-productive for the level of recidivism.
You must try harder and you’re wasting other people’s time – Incognito]
Very often, abstracts are the best that is available due to publications being in paid subscription journals. So, that is the best I can probably do.
Here is the link I missed. Again an abstract.
For the link below, it is necessary to approach the authors for the full version. So, I am unsure how long it will take to get a response back to that.
This study found that fifth and six graders improved performance as a result of mentoring.
I disagree with you about relevance. Having read quite a few papers, and written a thesis, it is not unusual to refer to research that in principle should apply in different settings. Sometimes, that is the best that can be done if specific research is not available in that area.
If that were not the case, we would not be conducting medical research on mice and drawing possible implications for humans.
I think it is intuitively obvious that correcting educational gaps, reducing drug addiction, and providing social support would be effective in many settings.
It is the same one as before. The one that is still missing is the one by Shapland and Bottoms.
For the link below, it is necessary to approach the authors for the full version. So, I am unsure how long it will take to get a response back to that.
I’m not asking or expecting you to get the full version from the authors. The issue is that you superficially parade summarised material (abstracts) because it confirms your bias and suits your narrative. Without the all the information & context in a full paper/report all we’re left with is the equivalent of reading headlines or tweets.
This study found that fifth and six graders improved performance as a result of mentoring.
That’s lovely but what does this and/or the PubMed link have to do with the Mod notes?
I disagree with you about relevance. Having read quite a few papers, and written a thesis, it is not unusual to refer to research that in principle should apply in different settings. Sometimes, that is the best that can be done if specific research is not available in that area.
Irrelevant to the Mod notes, as far as I can tell.
If that were not the case, we would not be conducting medical research on mice and drawing possible implications for humans.
Are you comparing youth offenders to lab mice? And boot camps to lab experiments?
I think it is intuitively obvious that correcting educational gaps, reducing drug addiction, and providing social support would be effective in many settings. [my italics]
I like that! It is intuitively crystal clear that you’re diverting and that you’re wasting more of my precious time – Incognito.
Further to my last comment, that Andrews and Botha paper is actually a very good one, because it suggests that factors such as correcting educational and drug addiction interventions along with social support are necessary for any programs aiming to reduce offending. From that article on page 40:
However, once again, adherence with such principles will not enhance crime prevention unless the applications are in touch with empirically validated psychological principles of behavioral influence and behavior change. We examine the failure of get tough policies on criminal recidivism briefly
The article refers to their RNR model as a framework for developing interventions in a wide variety of settings. On page 44 &45:
1. Risk principle: Direct intensive services to the higher risk offenders and minimize services to the low risk offenders.
2. Need principle: Target criminogenic needs in treatment. 44 ANDREWS AND BONTA 3.
Responsivity principle: Provide the treatment in a style and mode that is responsive to the offender’s learning style and ability.
These are general principles the authors posit should be applied to any program aimed at addressing criminal behaviour in a variety of settings.
And this model is largely met by National's proposed program. In principle at least. Whether that will be implemented effectively is another story.
[You keep on wasting my time with this.
The task at hand is for you to learn the limitations of your uncritical, biased & selective use of ChatGPT to promote NACT talking points & propaganda.
Your task, set by me and with support from other Mods, is not to argue for or defend NACT propaganda but to correct your comments that were missing links and critical commentary by yourself. In other words, ChatGPT sold you lemons and you were and still are trying to sell them off here. But they are now your lemons and you now are the seller, not ChatGPT or whatever or whoever your source was. So, you must take ownership of and responsibility for your comments and be accountable.
This is the basis of robust god-faith debate here on TS and it applies to every commenter.
I’m still waiting for a link + check by you of the 4th article by Shapland and Bottoms. Get on with it because I’m running out of patience and I’ve better things to do.
I also asked you where in the study by Andrews and Bonta does it say “education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments”? This was triggered by your claim “This study again found that education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments.” I still haven’t seen it, most likely because you made it up.
There’s one more comment of yours pending in Pre-Mod. I will deal with that one too but don’t bother submitting any other comments till this has been resolved, one way or another, as I will send them straight to Trash – Incognito]
Limited Service Volunteer programmes have been running through both Labour and National governments. They could be considered a supported form of bootcamp.
They often have young people on them that have been directed there by the Ministry of Social Development, or the Justice System.
I have relatives that have been tasked with running some of these courses in the past.
Unfortunately, the mix of "directed" volunteers and those who have an interest in the Armed Forces as a career disrupts both groups in terms of outcomes.
There's a good report from 2019 that has a wealth of detail in it:
What it is called again when you feign a hit job on yourself? Dodging a bullet? Ducking for cover? Deflecting the issue? A coward? A faker? A liar & a cheater?
The point made about the route display info being tied into the Hop machine – does give pause for thought. You really do want to get onto the right bus….
Van der Putten said the AT HOP card equipment does not only scan for payment but allows buses to show what route they are operating on.
“Without basic information like bus routes being displayed on buses, it will be very hard for our customers to navigate the bus network next week, including for school students travelling on both school buses and scheduled AT services.”
However, it looks as though it may be a bit hit-and-miss – as to whether you get a free ride or not.
First Union organiser Hayley Courtney said approximately 700 drivers will take part in the action across both unions.
“I’m not sure of the number of routes or the routes exactly but if you want a free ride, just ask the driver if they’re a union member.”
Thanks for the article. Next time I suggest you read past the headline and first few paragraphs quoting National's cherry-pick. There is plenty of info there that sounds reasonable about the spend.
Can't make a judgement call on bookcase and wardrobe, but if the walls they are to fit are 10 m long, that would explain the costings.
If anyone wishes to educate themselves about the Sovreign Citizen movement, Münecat deep-dives SovCits around the world. A well-researched, comprehensive explanation of the wads of paperwork they wave around. As usual, 1.5x speed gets you through it faster. Spoiler: it boils down to grifters preying on unsure people in a scary world.
David Seymour continues the right-wing grandstanding on crime.
Today he is calling for harsher sentencing for crimes against work places
So is he saying that crimes in workplaces are more serious than crimes in people's homes?
I bet people who suffer home invasions wouldn't agree with him.
It just shows even more plainly that Seymour doesn't really have a clue about how to really address crime, he thinks he can easily solve it by inserting a few words into a government bill.
ACT clearly think that government is an easy glamorous job. Jacinda would chuckle at their naivety.
AFAICS in the article – there is no mention of relative sentences against crimes committed during a home invasion (which is already, I think, an aggravating circumstance)
He's simply talking about making attacking a worker – in their place of employment, carrying out their usual job – an aggravating factor at the time of sentencing.
It's likely to be pretty popular for those who've been seeing local small business workers assaulted, not to mention nurses, ambos and firefighters attacked while they're trying to actually save lives.
The comparison would be with an assault in the street, or in a pub, or at a political rally. Where the assault sentence would not have the additional factor included.
This is more of the same proposal to restrict judges over sentencing that ACT have already signalled in several other areas. So nothing new from them.
I am less confident that ACT are, that they can actually influence judicial sentencing- but perhaps they have a plan if they are in government next year….
It just shows even more plainly that Seymour doesn’t really have a clue about how to really address crime, he thinks he can easily solve it by inserting a few words into a government bill.
Nope, Seymour, Luxon, and NACT don’t want to solve crime. They are cynically manipulating opinion to win votes and the Treasury benches. Just look at their policies, mostly not or poorly costed (what’s $1.5B aanyway?), because they don’t give a toss.
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RNZ reports – It’s supposed to be a haven of healing and spiritual awakening but residents of the Kawai Purapura community say they’ve been hurt and deceived. It’s the successor to the former Centrepoint commune, and has been on the bush block opposite Albany shopping centre since 2008. It ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. Usually we have a video chat to go with this wrap, but were unable to do one this week. We’ll be back next week.Several reports ...
The Transport Minister has set a hard 'fiscal envelope' of $6.54 billion for transport capital spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The economy is settling into a state of suspended animation as the Government’s funding freezes and job cuts chill confidence and combine with stubbornly high interest rates to ...
To be precise, the term “anti- Zionism” refers to (a) criticism of the political movement that created a modern Jewish state on the historical land of Israel, and to (b)the subjugation of Palestinians by the Israeli state. By contrast, the term “anti-Semitism” means bigotry and racism directed at Jewish people, ...
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Because hurricanes are one of the big-ticket weather disasters that humanity has to face, climate misinformers spend a lot of effort muddying the waters on whether climate change is making hurricanes more damaging. With the official start to the hurricane ...
Yesterday the Mayor released what he calls his “plan to save public transport” which is part of his final proposal for the Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP). This comes following consultation on the draft version that occurred in March which showed, once again, that people want more done on transport, especially ...
And it's a pleasure that I have knownAnd it's a treasure that I have gainedAotearoa’s coalition government is fragile. It’s held together by the obsequious sycophancy of Christopher Luxon, who willingly contorts his party into the fringe positions of his junior coalition partners and is unwilling to contradict them. The ...
The Select Committee hearing submissions on the fast-track consenting legislation is starting to become a beat-up of regional councils. The inflexibility and slow workings of the Councils were prominent in two submissions yesterday. One, from the Coromandel Marine Farmers Association, simply said that the Waikato Regional Council’s planning decisions were ...
Back in April, the High Court surprised everyone by ruling that Ministers are above the law, at least as far as the Waitangi Tribunal is concerned. The reason for this ruling was "comity" - the idea that the different branches of government shouldn't interfere with each other's functions. Which makes ...
Buzz from the BeehiveTolling was mentioned when Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced the government was re-introducing the Roads of National Significance (RoNS) programme, with 15 “crucial” projects to support economic growth and regional development across New Zealand. All RoNS would be four-laned, grade-separated highways, and all funding, financing, and ...
or the past 14 years, ever since the Spanish government cheated on an autonomy deal, Catalonia has reliably given pro-independence parties a majority of seats in their regional parliament. But now that seems to be over. Catalans went to the polls yesterday, and stripped the Catalan parties of their majority. ...
David Farrar writes – Radio NZ report: Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins said the Electoral Commission should make sure the system ran smoothly and “taking away the right of thousands of people to vote” was not the answer. “Thousands of people enroled and voted on the day. If ...
The Government’s introduction of legislation that would enable landlords to end tenancies with no reason marks a dark day for the 1.4 million people who rent their home in Aotearoa. ...
The Minister for Mental Health has found the Suicide Prevention Office and mental health support for 111 calls slipping through his fingers, says Labour spokesperson for Mental Health Ingrid Leary. ...
Today’s justification from the Minister for Children for scrapping protections for our tamariki was either a case of ignorance or deliberate deception. ...
The Green Party says the Government’s misguided policy on gangs will fail, following the announcement of the establishment of a national gang unit and district gang disruption units to target gang activities. ...
“With Police pay negotiations still unresolved after six months in Government, Mark Mitchell has today rolled the Commissioner out for a rebrand of their approach to gang crime,” Labour police spokesperson Ginny Andersen said. ...
The Government bringing back 50 charter schools will not increase achievement and is a distraction from the core mission of the education system, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Te Pāti Māori is showing extreme concern over the Environment Select Committees adoption of a lucky dip draw to determine hearings for the Fast Track Approvals bill. Of the 27,000 submissions, 2,900 requested to present. All organisations will be heard; however, the remaining 2,350 submitters will be subject to a ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events. “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
"On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden. “I raised my concerns after being ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools. “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019. “It is my pleasure ...
New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says. “This ...
Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...
Distinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...
Today’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners. “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...
Air Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...
Legislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...
The upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...
“The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...
Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen, Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...
Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...
The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
Arawata Shane Arawata Shane had wandered long In the wild tangled hills of the West Coast. He came to a stop on the mighty range And looked down at the wide river flats. He breathed in the clean air, And he took in the shadows playing across The face of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:Islands Business in Suva Today is the 24th anniversary of renegade and failed businessman George Speight’s coup in 2000 Fiji. The elected coalition government headed by Mahendra Chaudhry, the first and only Indo-Fijian prime minister of Fiji, was held hostage at gunpoint for 56 days in the country’s ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist and Kelvin Anthony, RNZ Pacific digital journalist Police have used tear gas and stun grenades on rioters at an airport near Nouméa as the chaos in New Caledonia stretched into its sixth day. Five people, including two police officers, have died and hundreds of ...
Asia Pacific ReportThe global human rights watchdog Amnesty International has called on France to not “misuse” a crackdown in the ongoing unrest in the non-self-governing French Pacific territory of Kanaky New Caledonia in the wake of a controversial vote by the French Parliament to adopt a bill changing the territory’s ...
A major provider of school lunches fears the government's new $3 limit for most students will see them eating more pre-packaged and processed food. ...
The star of Dark City: The Cleaner takes us through his life in TV, including the VHS revolution and the John Campbell impression that started it all. Best known for his comedic roles, Cohen Holloway says he struggled at times to maintain the stone cold facade of serial killer on ...
David Hill remembers an old friend, who you’ve probably never heard of. My friend Doug never travelled; he had little interest in the world beyond his own tiny rural town. I’ve rarely known anyone who radiated such contentment. Doug (I’ll call him that) died in March. You won’t know him. ...
Some of the earliest photos of life in Aotearoa are on display at Auckland Museum right now – but the identities of some of the people in them are a mystery.What was it like to be one of the first people in New Zealand to have their photo taken? ...
Since its founding almost a decade ago, Featherston Booktown has grown into one of the country’s most interesting and idiosyncratic literary events. Erin Banks reports from the audience. “Come in, have you had lunch? I’m about to make a cheese toastie.” Mary Biggs, operations manager of Featherston Booktown Karukatea Festival, ...
After 33 years abroad, Loveni Enari recently returned to Aotearoa and Samoa in what a friend joked was an “existential crisis”. He learnt and re-learnt so much about his family, friends and both countries. Almost as an afterthought, he got a Samoan tatau. This is his story. (Accompanying it are ...
Nearly 30 years ago, two people told me they’d killed a woman they knew. I thought the truth would come out, that others would tell it. In the end, I had to. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Fact: in 1995, Angela Blackmoore ...
Editor Madeleine Chapman looks back at the week and shines a light on some increasingly rare longform journalism. Mōrena and welcome to The Weekend where there will sadly be no aurora to see. After a busy week last week of short, sharp pieces, this week we swung the other way, ...
ANALYSIS:By David Robie, editor of Asia Pacific Report Jean-Marie Tjibaou, a revered Kanak visionary, was inspirational to indigenous Pacific political activists across Oceania, just like Tongan anthropologist and writer Epeli Hao’ofa was to cultural advocates. Tragically, he was assassinated in 1989 by an opponent within the independence movement during ...
Forget thin is in, apparently now bigger is better … or is it? After over a decade of body positivity, girls, teens and women are even more confused about what body positivity actually is. The movement began with women confronting unrealistic expectations of how their bodies should look. But sub-strands ...
Grace always sat at the bar at the back of The Cambridge, where she could watch who came in. A huge mirror ran the length of the pub, so you could sometimes watch people without them knowing. The mirror made the place seem a lot bigger than it really was. ...
MONDAY Sheriff Mark Mitchell rose at dawn. He had a long day’s ride ahead of him. He was headed for Waikeria. Waikeria! Even the name itself stirred his blood, and set root in his imagination. There was nothing and no one in Waikeria. But he would bend it to his ...
The first phase of the inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones finished this week, turning up plenty of revelations and few answers. But through all the confusion, heartbreak and antipathy on display, the simple fact at the heart of this case remains: if little Lachie’s body had ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Benjamin, Professor in Art History, University of Sydney “She’s no oil painting”. Those were the unkind words of a colleague commenting on the subject of Vincent Namatjira’s acrylic painting, Gina. Every one of the prominent Australians and cultural heroes in Namatjira’s ...
Government plans to require local councils hold a referendum on whether to have Māori wards breaches the Treaty of Waitangi, a Waitangi Tribunal report has found. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney This year the National Rugby League (NRL) opened its season in Las Vegas. It was an audacious move by the league’s ambitious head honcho Peter V’Landys to showcase the game in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University Leading music organisations have praised the federal budget for its investment in the live music sector. The budget includes A$8.6 million for a program called Revive Live: to provide essential support to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marnee Shay, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, The University of Queensland The 2024 federal budget contains A$110 million for Indigenous education. This includes funding for various different organisations to represent and help Indigenous people as well as scholarships in a bid to ...
Air New Zealand has confirmed Nouméa’s Tontouta International airport in New Caledonia is closed until Tuesday. The airline earlier told RNZ it would update customers as soon as it could. Earlier today, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters told RNZ Morning Report government officials had been working on an “hourly basis” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Linley, PhD Candidate in Ecology, Charles Sturt University Grant Linley Australia’s unprecedented Black Summer bushfires in 2019–20 created ideal conditions for misinformation to spread, from the insidious to the absurd. It was within this context that a bizarre story ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marcel Scharth, Lecturer in Business Analytics, University of Sydney OpenAI executive Mira Murati launching GPT-4o.OpenAI Earlier this week OpenAI launched GPT-4o (“o” for “omni”), a new version of the artificial intelligence (AI) system powering the popular ChatGPT chatbot. GPT-4o is promoted ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Treasure McGuire, Assistant Director of Pharmacy, Mater Health SEQ in conjoint appointment as Associate Professor of Pharmacology, Bond University and as Associate Professor (Clinical), The University of Queensland Speedkingz/Shutterstock Menopause is a natural biological process that marks the end of a ...
A new poem by Hannah Patterson. Xiāng There’s a pear tree in our backyard And Xiāng tells me She can’t eat them anymore Not after some things that have happened in her life. She tells me, in Mandarin The word for pear sounds the same as the word for disassociation ...
‘Cycling Works’ aims to show business support for citywide cycle infrastructure. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, supermarket giant Foodstuffs lost its attempt to block the construction of a cycle lane outside Thorndon New World in Wellington. The Spinoff’s Wellington editor ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Slow Productivity by Cal Newport (Penguin, $40)Taking out the top spot in Auckland this ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lowe, Emeritus Professor, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University For decades, Australia has exported uranium – but not used it, other than in the Lucas Heights research reactor. But change is coming. We now face a rapidly deepening commitment to ...
"In future I should walk away," Green MP Julie Anne Genter says after complaints over an exchange in Parliament and from two members of the public. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Graffam, PhD Candidate in Theatre, Monash University Gianna Rizzo/Malthouse Music pumps; lights pulsate; two sweaty bodies sway together, touching, breathing in each other’s scent. A male body framed by downlight restlessly shifts between stances and gestures. He undresses. The intensity ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sandra van der Laan, Professor of Accounting, University of Sydney Mtaya/Shutterstock At some point, you or someone else will need to make a decision about your “send-off”. Most Australians die in an institution, such as a hospital or aged care facility. ...
Asia Pacific Report Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai — who is also Chairman of the Melanesian Spearhead Group — has reaffirmed MSG’s support of the pro-independence umbrella group Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) stance opposing the French government’s constitutional bill “unfreezing” the New Caledonia Electoral Roll. It is ...
Producer Susan Leonard remembers her father Ernie, a pioneer of Māori television, and how his legacy lives on in Pathfinders.My father was a fabulous man. His name was Ernie Leonard and he started in TV in the 1970s when it was still glamorous – when TVNZ made behind the ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk, and Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist The suspected ringleaders of the unrest in New Caledonia have been placed in home detention and the social network TikTok has been banned as French security forces struggle to restore law and order. The French ...
Multi-year appropriations - which give the government authority to spend money without reapplying annually - are loosening Parliament's control of the public purse, auditor-general says. ...
Dr. Eric Chuah who stood for a centrist NZ political party in the October 2023 NZ Elections for Maungakiekie Auckland will stand as a candidate for Tauranga City Council Ward of Matua-=Otumoetai and Mayor of Tauranga. ...
If you can’t get to the comedy fest, let us bring the comedy fest to you. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. The New Zealand International Comedy Festival is in full swing at the moment, with a veritable smorgasboard of comedy treats ...
A new poll commissioned by Unions Wellington shows an overwhelming majority of Wellingtonians oppose the Council’s plan to sell the 34% public stake in Wellington Airport. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aruna Sathanapally, Chief Executive, Grattan Institute, Grattan Institute A central focus of this week’s budget is the treasury’s forecast for inflation. By this time next year, inflation is projected to be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range. Inflation has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yolanda van Heezik, Professor of Ecology, University of Otago Getty Images Cities across Aotearoa New Zealand are trying to solve a housing crisis, with increasing residential density a key solution. But not everyone is happy about the resulting loss of natural ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute WDG Photo/Shutterstock For years, the electricity sector has been the poster child for emissions cuts in Australia. The sector achieved a stunning 26% drop in emissions over the past 15 ...
It’s often the last thing people want to do, but asking someone if they’re having suicidal thoughts is a critical first step to helping them. Content warning: this story discusses suicide and suicidal ideation. For a list of resources that can help if you or someone you know is feeling ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy J. Ralph, Associate Professor, Macquarie University The pyramids at Giza, like dozens of others, are located several kilometres west of the current path of the Nile.Alex Cimbal / Shutterstock The largest field of pyramids in Egypt – consisting of 31 ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute ABO PHOTOGRAPHY/Shutterstock Receiving a cancer diagnosis is life-changing and can cause a range of concerns about ongoing health. Fear of cancer returning is one ...
Winston Peters has been on tour around the Pacific while two unrelated crises unfolded, explains Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Two separate ...
This is the Mount Everest of artificial meatcraft.Ah, bacon. Pig’s gold. Toast’s consolation. Dawn’s savoury embrace. If meat was a currency, bacon would be the Benjamin Franklin. Or if you’re feeling patriotic, the Lord Rutherford. When it comes to fake bacon, the obvious question is: why bother? In the ...
From illegal milk to sprinkler bans and airplane ticket scams, Tyrone Barugh is on a one-man mission through New Zealand’s most obscure legal loopholes. I’m deep undercover, investigating Wellington’s criminal underworld. Inside this store, I’ve been told there is a million-dollar trade in illicit substances. A man dressed in black ...
NONFICTION 1 The Last Secret Agent by Pippa Latour & Jude Dobson (Allen & Unwin, $37.99) A free copy of this amazing story of a woman who operated behind enemy lines in Nazi-occupied France was up for grabs this past fortnight. Readers were asked to share a story of wartime bravery, ...
It’s been a recess week at Parliament, which might indicate slim pickings for conversation topics for the Raw Politics team. But things are never dull in politics, especially with a new Government keen to follow through on its law and order promises, and a NZ First minister who wants to ...
So here's the guts:
The PM has lost his mana and is now only marginally ahead of Luxon. Two thirds of the respondents reckon Aotearoa is going the wrong way, only a fifth think it's on track. The other 13% either believe its going sideways or deemed the question too hard.
Anyone who can cook up a left-wing win scenario out of this public sentiment are pushing shit up-hill…
Luxon on Hipkins: “He’s just being politically expedient and going to say and do anything in order to win an election.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labours-chris-hipkins-eyes-up-new-tax-policy-as-poll-struggles-bite-warns-to-expect-restraint-after-ruling-out-wealth-tax-capital-gains-tax/JQ2DUV345RHDDKNVS6C4TI3Y5E/
See that straight-talking stance he's got going there: tell it like it is. It will be expedient to attract floating voters back to Labour after having alienated them. It will also be unlikely. Boomers will need a substantial bribe, so we could expect Grant to pull a magic rabbit out of his financial hat: rob the poor to pay the rich! Classic neoliberalism.
The PM will be happy with that, knowing that he's out-Luxing Luxon. Labour will leap up & down with excitement, seeing that they will continue to represent the middle class.
The Herald poll bar graph in primary colours displays a precise electorate triad: left/right/neither all rating a third each!
Stunning revelation from Britain's Conservative govt:
The Financial Times was impressed to see this announcement to the media. I expect most of their media would have agreed with him that they did indeed know that.
However there would inevitably be some who would wonder, knowing that any statement from the Conservatives was probably untrue.
I suspect their media also contains hard-core sceptics operating from down their personal rabbit-hole – immediately realising that the official denial meant the govt really was Amazon. These folk would jump onto the internet to spread the word…
It's probably tough to show sufficient gratitude when you're being invaded by rapists, murderers, and washing machine thieves.
UN report October 2022:
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/A-77-533-AUV-EN.pdf
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/how-russian-soldiers-terrorise-ukraine-sexual-violence/
Three's political editor has a farming tail wagging Labour dog theory:
So Hipkins believes dairy farmers vote Labour & freaked out about the wealth tax, realising it would force them to vote National. I'm impressed. Such laser-like political logic would have been way over the heads of most Labourites, I'd have thought.
Heaps of farms are held in trusts as well, there's no doubt it would be problematic to levy a fairly significant tax on what is productive sector in terms of export dollars.
It's the unproductive stuff we need to figure out how to capture and ideally make things like housing far less of an attractive short term investment vehicle.
Ghost houses and air bnbs would be a good start for taxing the fuck out of
That's my view too…..but it needs work and finesse.
Easier just to say everyone is wealthy and tax them.
Even with a sarc tag this would be a disingenuous comment. There is nothing ‘easy’ about the Greens’ Tax Policy, for example. Your disagreeing views are starting to straddle into obnoxious resistance.
If you wish to have a grown-up conversation about increasing tax (https://thestandard.org.nz/hipkins-tax-gamble/#comment-1959509) you’ll need to start acting like one.
Sorry for leaving off the sarcasm tag. I did mean it sarcastically.
I am entitled to my views. if I want to express them sarcastically then I will. I happen to think that the Treasury and IRD work on high net work individuals is better. That is not resisting just saying someone else got some thing 'more righter' (sic)
I have been putting forward other ideas that I hope will be looked at & will have a better chance of success. High net worth people should pay their share and if other taxes are slotted in at home sale or death waypoints those of us less financially endowed can too.
The Green party wealth tax failed in my view
1it included the family home
2 if they were to include the family home the point at which the tax came about needed to be much higher.
3 I still find the inclusion of KS problematic bearing in mind that those who took it out were probably responding to Govt signals that govt funded national Super may not be affordable in the long term,
and
it makes economic sense to do this.
NB in its work looking at high net worth individuals the figures discounted the value of the family home. That seems a fairly good sign to me that those investigating this had a pretty good understanding of the psyche of NZers as far as aspiring to buy/live in our own piece of dirt.
While I am glad that the wealth tax idea was knocked out there are still good policies in the Greens manifesto for those of us wanting to opt for the Labour/Greens combo.
And again, you misread the comment or chose to ignore the part(s) that you dislike. This is becoming an issue in discussions on this topic but I’m also starting to wonder more about your contributions to other discussion threads on other controversial topics here on TS. Note that my concern doesn’t relate to disagreeing opinion, counter-arguments, or discerning voice but to pattern behaviours that are not conducive to robust grown-up constructive debate. I refer to Lprent’s recent comments for further context.
Your comment was disingenuous, with or without sarc tag.
Everybody is free to put forward their views & opinions here. In fact, we welcome & encourage this in the expectation that it generates robust debate. People who have no arguments (left) sometime resort to disingenuous comments and this can turn into obnoxious behaviour.
The Wealth Tax proposals would affect approximately 0.5 to 0.7% of people, give or take, depending on the proposal. This is miles off being “everyone’, as you sarcastically implied.
Several times you have deflected & diverted to the example of those 311 of the wealthiest families in NZ that generally have a net worth of more than $50M. It is disingenuous to suggest that tax policy should focus or target on only those families when it is the findings of this research that underpins much of the WT proposals. I note that these are families, not individuals, so you are comparing apples & oranges, again.
Citation needed. It’s irrelevant anyway for the purpose of that research.
“NB in its work looking at high net worth individuals the figures discounted the value of the family home.
Citation needed. It’s irrelevant anyway for the purpose of that research.”
I have already linked to this today.
The figures that are covered in this is 25,000 people with assets of over $5M. It excludes the family home and could raise $3.8billion pa by 2025.
So even considering the wealth of these 25,000 the regulators feel that including the family home is not on. They may be more in tune with the known psyche/social/historic relationship that Kiwis have with home ownership.
Looking at those who owned more than one property ie excluding the family home, may include some of the ones already caught in the Treasury figures. It gives an idea of where to look now, possibly, if there is a correlation between owning more than one property and ghost or empty houses. Taxing empty houses may be worth looking at.
These are the world-wide figures for home ownership.
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/home-ownership-rate
Even noting that home ownership rates have fallen in NZ, it is still a majority.
I feel we need to work so all have the chance to home ownership. This should not be taxed.
Or have a rental market that is stable, possibly including more institutional investors, so people can rent for long periods of time and have stability. They have the option then of home ownership or renting without being at the whim of a private LL who may want to cash up.
https://www.localgov.co.uk/How-institutional-investors-can-boost-the-UKs-private-rented-sector/55713
That might be the case, but not under this Post and not in this discussion thread, AFAIK.
In this thread @ 4.1.1.1.1.1 (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-07-2023/#comment-1959559) above, your wrote :
And in this thread @ 4.1.2 (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-07-2023/#comment-1959561) below, you were referring & linking to the IRD research.
So, I mistook it as the IRD study, my bad.
I assume you’ve read those Budget papers released by Treasury and you’ve seen that Treasury advised against the exemption of the family home with some strong arguments.
The irony of your irrational resistance to including the family home in a Wealth Tax, which would only affect 0.5 or 0.7% of people, i.e., the wealthiest of all, is that it could increase inequity and move home ownership further out of reach for more Kiwis.
Including the family home in a WT is not a disincentive for home ownership, not even for those wealthy individuals. It is a fact that Capital Gains are a major source of un-taxed wealth in NZ. To wean off Kiwis from investing or speculating in property, including the family home, and instead investing in productive enterprises is something I do advocate unlike you, it seems.
I won’t even go into the effects of your stance on inter-generational wealth transfer among the well-offs by exempting the family home.
The absolute majority of home owners in NZ would not be affected by a WT under the proposals that we have seen. Your resistance is based on fear and thus is irrational.
If you are worth $2+M then you can afford to pay a WT. End of.
How does this lift everyone out of poverty?
The GP budgeted for $15.48B in 2024/2025 via a wealth tax, tax on trusts, and a change in companies tax rate.
That's what was needed to lift people out of poverty. Your figures are designed for an approach that lifts some people out of poverty and leaves the rest behind. That's horrible.
why is including the family home a problem?
Houses always cost money – rates, repairs, maintenance, insurance.
Homes used as the owner's residence don't generate income, and will still require money even when paid off.
The wealth tax is a poor substitute for a more efficient income and corporate tax system.
that doesn't adequately explain why a personal home should be excluded from a wealth tax.
Houses always cost money and yet people with over $2m are making far more in capital gains than it costs to maintain a house.
Houses do generate income, via capital gains. It's not weekly income but it is untaxed wealth accrual that most definitely people benefit from compared to people who don't own a home or who do but have assets less than $2m.
"Houses do generate income, via capital gains. "
That's incorrect. Unrealised capital gains on residences is not income.
Many make the assumption that capital gains is guaranteed. Many home owners buy where they can afford or where it meets their life priorities (ie. close to family), and not necessarily in places with high capital gains.
Primarily, the current way of thinking about this issue is this:
Right, let's look at property prices in Auckland over the last ten years:
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/auckland
Median price now: $995,000 Median price 2013: $570,000
That's an increase of $42,500 a year, or $425,000 over the ten year period. But there are costs associated with home ownership.
(Used this interest rate calculator)
Assume a 4% return over ten years monthly interest calc:
10% – $57,000 – $27,977.46 20% – $114,000 – $55,954.93
So the deposit alone will have lost earnings over this ten year period.
Best case scenario, if the house was purchased with cash, using the same interest rates the loss in interest is;
$570,000 – $279,774.63
While the capital value of the house has increased, the material depreciation would have decreased unless money has been spent on maintaining the property to the standard in which it was purchased.
A conservative estimate for house maintenance is 1% of the house value annually;
https://www.wisemove.co.nz/post/how-much-should-you-spend-on-home-maintenance-each-year.
For simplicity I'll use only the purchase price rather than increase the value each year. Using the same calculator parameters, but with a yearly compound interest:
$5,700/year – over ten years with lost interest – $76,872.20
Not yet calculated is other associated costs such as insurance, and rates.
Using low 2023 rates of $2,400 to adjust for the fact they are not 2013 rates,
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/127986739/auckland-rates-some-of-citys-poorest-suburbs-hardest-hit-by-rates-increases.
and an estimate of $200/month for home insurance will bring the annual rates and insurance bill to $4,800.
Put this into the interest calculator as above and:
After 10 years the cumulative cost is: $64,734.49
So, this is a best case scenario, that assumes no borrowing from the banks, but takes into account conservative lost interest.
It also assumes no material improvements in the property:
$279,774.63 Full purchase price lost interest
$ 76,872.20 Maintenance 1% incl lost interest
$ 64,734.49 Rates & Insurance incl lost interest
$421,381.32 Cost of owning home purchased for cash over 10yrs
Which is not far off the increase in capital value: $425,000
In essence, the "income" you refer to comes in @ $3,618.68 over ten years, or $361.87yr.
If a mortgage is involved, you can see how this creates a deficit for home owners in terms of financial benefits.
I would say that many average homeowners who live in their own homes, are paying out more for that decision than they are receiving in capital gains. The above calculation may indicate why. Many of those with a mortgage pay more for their housing than they would pay in a similar rental.
Let's not also forget that the hope is that housing prices decrease for all, and some have had significant losses in their investments recently:
"Currently, Auckland house prices have fallen 23.17% from the peak of the market in Nov 2021 through to May 2023."
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/auckland
I hope that gives some indication of why I believe that treating capital gains as income – when there is no income – is an ill considered approach.
You lost me already.
"You lost me already.
Not minus, a obviously confusingly placed hyphen – referring to the usual deposits of either 10% or 20% of the purchase price, so:
Therefore, "10% – $57,000 – $27,977.46"
meant 10% deposit = $57,000 which if placed in a 4% (I took it as 5% with 1% going to IRD) compounding interest account would have generated $27,977.46 in interest over the ten year period.
Homes are homes not $$$$$ making ventures to bring in money.
Family homes provide stable places to live, bring up a family, stay in a community and be able to contribute to it.
People who own more that one home are looking at the $$$ side or it may be an extension to the family home concept in having a bach or crib (though I don't find that very persuasive)
Renting in NZ can be fraught with non professional or non institutional landlords leading to many people not having the ability to stay in one suburb (schooling etc) let alone one place.
I linked to a paper about the UKs housing and the need to provide more renting accomodation and this discusses focussing on instituinal investment
https://www.localgov.co.uk/How-institutional-investors-can-boost-the-UKs-private-rented-sector/55713
I have not searched very deeply for articles on the benefits of home ownership but here is one from the US
https://www.fortunebuilders.com/benefits-of-homeownership/
NZ has had a long social history of citizens being encouraged to own their own homes/properties including
1 legislative action over the years ranging from the breaking up of the great estates in the 1890s (when parts of NZ were on track to becoming little Englands with a built in tenant/landlord class and a farm owner/farm labourer class.
2 Home ownership was felt to be a just reward to be offered to returned soldiers after both WW1 & WW2 (particularly) Some times loans, some times sections/houses.
3 through to the Govt selling sections, houses, offering home loans, offering topped up savings schemes for deposits through the old NZ Post. Needless to say this all came to a grinding halt with the neo-libs. "not the role of Govt to encourage the flow of money anywhere other than the market' etc etc plus other rubbish
I agree. Let's remove the capital gains from all housing. Great solution.
Weka, Please see Molly's thoughtful response on this topic immediately above.
16 July 2023 at 2:28 pm
This to me has an impact like the story about little boy and the Emperor without clothes. Calls it like it is.
I must say this is one of the first that I have read that actually looks at what is proposed without name calling, 'misunderstanding' saying people don't understand links, connections and is short on rhetoric (this is a good thing)
Then read mine about the history of encouragment to buy a family home here in NZ that has been a feature since the 1890s at least and probably before that under the various provincial govts.
Then reflect on why the proposal to include the family home, at the least, made it doomed to failiure once it got out into the electorate. There are other oddities.
I feel this odd and ill thought out policy 'queered the pitch' and 'frightened the horses' so much that Hipkins has needed to squash speculation. In doing so he has had to rule out (again) the one that Treasury had been working on that had a higher assets limit $5m, did not include the family home.
This report was referred to by DF here.
13 July 2023 at 8:59 am
I think we are well rid of the threat of this policy and it opens the door to a mature discussion on 'what is wealth?' cf The Greens say $2m and The Treasury said $5m. Knowing that The Treasury had access to much more quality information from other Govt depts and seemingly a better handle on what IRD/The Treasury called 'wealth' the higher figure is more like it. Productive industries like farms and factories though could easily top the $5m mark.
As Harman says…….'endless complexities in trying to introduce the tax and doubted it would achieve the revenue gains the Government hoped'.
So let us turn our minds to other ways to alleviate poverty, to make sure our overall taxation is fair and that it generates enough to meet all the policies of Govt including alleviating poverty. The Greens policy was silent on
Yes why were farms/productive units included?
The paper on high net worth is much more nuanced in saying that the high net worth individuals were wealthy but this was often from running productive units….business, farming ect.
https://www.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/home/documents/about-us/high-wealth-research-project/hwi-research-project/factsheets-supporting-hwi-report/tax-and-the-economic-income-of-the-wealthy.pdf?modified=20230420234159
I think there is possibly a case to be made about farms, but the problem is farms have also had massive property capital gains in the past few decades and that is wealth. Some farmers can sell their farms and never work again. Other farms have huge debt because they believed that industrial dairy was the way to go. They won't be paying the wealth tax but the farmers in between might struggle.
What is the fixation about capital gains?
Some of these farmers work really hard with living expenses being funded via a current account through the year and paid off after wool/meat/sales and only being able to pay themselves for 40 or 50 years of hard work after the property is sold. Even then many leave money in and don't get the full amount, forgiving any debts at death. Wage and salary earners usually get more than just their living expenses met.
I think many people seem to have some odd ideas about what and how other people live.
My opinion is that the Greens wealth tax lost it once the family home was included. It might have been less controversial had the family home been excluded.
Ok, so you clearly don't understand the political argument around poverty and the wealth gap.
Capital gains on housing is a large part of why many people live in poverty. The increases in the property market drove up house prices and rents. Some people did very well out of that, and many people can no longer afford to feed and raise their kids.
Labour's response is to raise wages, and they've done a good job on raising the minimum wage. But that hasn't kept up with the housing costs. They've also raised some benefits, but again, it's not kept up with housing costs and never can. This is a political choice to leave a lot of people living in poverty.
Some possible solutions:
kept up with housing costs should be caught up with housing costs.
Pity responses are more and more being phrased like this rather than acknowledging that the questioner did understand poverty/wealth conundrum but has disagreed with The Greens suggested solution.
In saying this you are using the great TINA (there is no other alternative) principle that in a quality debate gets you nowhere. If the policy got anywhere near The Treasury, Treasury would sniff out a TINA policy from a 1000 paces.
Because there are other alternatives – The Greens had chosen the wealth tax. And no-one seemed to know why, at least not on here.
"My opinion is that the Greens wealth tax lost it once the family home was included. It might have been less controversial had the family home been excluded."
The wealth tax is a strange beast anyway, but I addressed some of the issues regarding capital gains on the home as income here:
.https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-07-2023/#comment-1960028
Great post Molly. Thank you.
All good. I tried to be as conservative as possible, and it assumes perhaps a fairly high interest rate (I took it as 5% with 1% going to IRD), but it is also very low on maintenance estimates etc, so I think it balances out.
As soon as you've taken a loan out for the mortgage, the costs grow quite significantly, and given that most people with a mortgage pay more to service it than renters – it shows clearly the problem with assuming capital gains leads to material benefits for home owners.
Interestingly, if I had invested the equivalent value of $570,000 in these particular Lego Sets
in 2013, (notwithstanding how that bulk investment would affect the value), the purchase price of that median Auckland house would now be worth: $7,735,812
https://www.brickeconomy.com/set/66488-1/lego-hero-factory-ultimate-evo
Yikes!
Jenna Lynch's opinion is not something I would hang my hat on.
18 to 24 year olds.
Est eligible to vote : 418831
Per cent enrolled : 59.71 %
Labour and Greens MUST get them to vote. Crucial.
Labour…all those Tradie apprentices you helped !
Greens…Climate and all !
Labour and Green get moving !
Labour and Greens MUST get them to vote. Crucial.
That was posted to this site several times last election, and probably the one before that too. The usual response of the people: doan wanna.
That's the amusing thing about the Greens' tax strategy – those most likely to benefit matches those least likely to vote. I suspect the Greens do actually know that, and are yielding to the traditional socialist stance out of their inner need to signal that virtue.
Feeling good defeats political logic. Morally righteous defeats success. But hey, always possible that the electorate could prove me wrong…
Hipkins killed any hope of that yesterday. No really he did. We care deeply about policy unlike the easily conned boomers who fall for every scam and conspiracy online, we see through political bullshit.
We are renters ffs. We want a capital gains tax and to sock it to the rich.
He basically told every zoomer and millennial to go fuck ourselves because none of the policies we care about in housing or tax will ever happen under him, he basically told us it doesn't matter left wing party you vote for, it ain't happening, "end of story"
Get rid of that muppet.
That budget he canned would have labour polling in the fucking 40s for a few weeks.
No political instincts, no charisma, no spine and he takes weeks and weeks to make decisions about his errant ministers.
I am on your side Corey about renting and not home ownership for your generation. Two step children and I am really not sure how they will manage. We give them as much help as we can.
But I have to object to your potrayal of boomers who 'fall for every scam and consipiracy theory on line". Where's your evidence for this? It didn't look to me like there were a whole lot of boomers at parliament (the protest) and as far as I know most boomers got the covid jab.
Having read the piece that Denis put up earlier (the interview with Sir Geoffry Palmer) I was reminded how in my childhood we would never lock our doors. What has changed? Don't know. I was a working class kid and was housed cause of the state house building programme. The conditions we lived in would be considered overcrowding now.
The solution to the housing crisis that is most likely to work is to flood the market with housing. Labour have been unable to do it.
But sincerely, I do feel for your genderation.
So roll Chippy, put Grant in for the election and give something new groundbreaking and positive a real shot?
Perhaps better than going down as National lite and continuing to have little or nothing to show from the Ardern years in terms of significant change to inequality.
Plus first openly gay PM and with plenty of experience on how to do the job.
Whatdya reckon?
bwhahahahahahah
yeah, nah nah. Might as well put any of the other diversity picks up.
The problem is not the person announcing the policies, the problem are the policies.
That’s a very casual dismissal of Grant as a ‘diversity pick up.’ If he wasn’t gay, I’d suggest he’d have been a shoo in as leader much earlier in the piece.
And the policies are exactly my point. Clearly there has been a movement in Labour to address inequality and Hipkins has made it a no go.
It would be a chance to front tax reform already prepared for by the revenue minister.
The quote here was a wealth tax was over 50% popular. If that’s true don’t be out of step with the other countries.
Otherwise the gap between Chippy and Steven Joyce begins to look less than that between him and his party.
"If he wasn’t gay, I’d suggest he’d have been a shoo in as leader much earlier in the piece."
Do you ascribe this supposed homophobia to the internal workings of the Labour Party, or are you suggesting it exists in large quantities in voters?
I don't think G.R has any support from the public other then those that reflexively vote Labour.
Put G.R in the leader spot and i am taking bets that Labour could fall below Cunliffe efforts2014, Labour got about 25.1 %? And god only knows how low Andrew Little polled when they pushed J.A to the spot of leadership in order to win an election.
Chippie is the best atm i think they have, and he is about as exiting as is stale white toast. Untoasted.
Got it in one Sabine.
Neither of you read the comment- clearly with Minister Parker’s report there’s been preparation for some redistributive tax and support within Labour for that. That would be the basis for proposing the new leader. To potentially follow through on a core policy.
and @Jack you ever watch Key in the house?
Grant can be an effective communicator, but has been inside treasury and not thinking outside of Wellington. Remember him standing out on that pub politics show waaay back with Wallace Chapman.
You kidding right? Grant is an even bigger turn-off. You only need to look at his performances in the house – smarmy, conceited, loud mouth.
But it does open an interesting question. Who will be the Labour leader come Christmas. Certainly won’t be anyone in the current cabinet.
Grant to me looks like he is ready to sign out. Just my opinion, but we are not seeing much of him of late and he is not standing for Wellington Central and going to be a list MP. Bets on that if Labour loses he will walk
Just one little problem with your suggestion.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/483137/grant-robertson-explains-why-he-didn-t-run-to-be-prime-minister
He stood aside last time. This might be choosing to cement a certain legacy or leave with only having furthered inequality.
Is he leaving politics after the GE??
Could still do that after winning one with a wealth tax if he wanted.
I agree, Grant is funny, articulate and Grant could have been a Keating rather than a Gordon Brown.
Better than the muppet they chose!
Guess I was seeing the possibility of it as a Barristan Selmy or Jora Thormont type mission. Among which Labour finance ministers does he want to be remembered? It’s all a lot of faff, but so is getting into politics.
He and David Parker have already suggested they disagreed with Hipkins, or at least Hipkins says it was his decision. Enough of these captain’s calls. We’re not a presidency. They only work if his whole team, many of whom won’t be back, support his stance. He can’t say it’s a captain’s call unless the whole team goes along with it in a parliamentary democracy.
It’s not captains at the toss at Lord’s.
When considering National's boot camp idea, I think it is very important to consider the specifics of the proposed program before making broad judgements.
I checked with Chat GPT about the effectiveness of boot camps. It came back and said that the evidence is mixed on boot camps that focus on physical exercise etc, and that there isn't much evidence that they are any more effective than other interventions.
But then I asked, what if the focus is on addressing education and drug addiction issues and social support is provided for youth when they return to the community. (as is the case with National's proposal). Here is its response below:
This response is very much in line with my understanding of the situation. So, if a program has these elements, then it is far more likely to be successful than the traditional boot camp model.
Interesting response from Chat GPT.
I agree with what you follow it up with, but especially your paragraph here:
"That said, the specifics of implementation matter a great deal. Not all programs are created equal, and it's important for programs to be based on solid research, well-implemented, and regularly evaluated for effectiveness. It's also important to consider the specific characteristics and needs of the individual youth, as different interventions may be more or less effective for different individuals."
So collective web wisdom is that boot camps suck but investing money into proper rehabilitation and social services work…
Which party do you think will actually do the stuff known to work? And which one will throw kids into an army camp, talk about setting up the other stuff and then never actually do it because of stuff….
Well, what the current government is doing certainly doesn't seem to be working.
But, all I have done, is asked Chat GPT about essentially National's policy on this. From the article:
ChatGPT ??? A completely reliable system prone to making shit up. Generally it seems to feed back what the questioner wants. I’d want to look at the exact search statements to determine flaws. But that lack of references tends to indicate that this is likely to be complete bullshit. Ask for pinpoint references and then check them.
However, I’ve seen about 3 or 4 rounds of boot camp type proposals go through so far in the last 40 years. What I always notice is that they are invariably set up on the absolute cheapest possible basis. Their operational costs were a tiny fraction of the cost of (for instance) basic training by the military. Their setup costs were tiny as well.
Certainly the last round of NationalAct ones were. All that have tried to implement were complete failures.
Social support – again expensive and really hard to setup in community. Typically this would take quite some time to set up. And it’d probably have to localised so it’d need to scattered widely. The probability of being able to use existing social services is minimal – they’re overstretched already. This is a whole new country wide program.
Whatever else is used in a boot-camp. To date this has mostly been people shouting. That was cheapish, but completely ineffective.
So until ActNational announces their programme setup and per person budget, it is pointless considering it. I’d bet we never see anything over the next 100 days. To date they have only ever provided day-care levels of funding.
So this is just a corflute slogan policy with a picture of the Luxon dimwit next to it.
A separate question is if the boot-camp idea would be effective at all. I consider that to be highly unlikely as well. In my opinion as a ex-soldier who has done a real boot-camp and as someone who spent a number of years writing military training programs, it is highly unlikely.
There is a reason why our military is so damn picky about who they induct and how they train them. It is a highly expensive operation. Doing a boot-camp for teens who don’t want to be there and who aren’t selected as being trainable is a few orders of magnitude harder and more expensive.
Speaking as a programmer, relying on ChatGPT for research without thoroughly checking the sources of what it produces is the action of a gullible idiot. Ask it for pinpoint reference links and then check them.
Yeah, I would agree with you normally on this. Except, I wasn't just relying only on Chat GPT. I was also relying on a lecture I remember during my Masters years, when we had a lecture from a guy who runs an institution in the US for youth on the verge of serious prison time as a last intervention.
He was saying it was easy to get amazing change while the youth were in the institution, but the changes evaporated once the youth returned to their communities. So, they had to do a lot of community intervention and provide a lot of community support to get the changes to stick more reliably.
Therefore, so far as National's plan goes, I agree with it in principle. But, whether it will be done well enough is another matter. These sort of interventions are incredibly expensive. So, if the community side of the intervention is only at a superficial level, then I doubt it will work.
I posted about the Limited Service Volunteer programme below, and one aspect that does seem to be positive is that IF a volunteer does go on to enlist, they have a fully functioning community around them from that point on, that allows them to make changes.
Providing a supportive environment post intervention is the most difficult part of supporting change.
And, I just asked Chat GPT for supporting studies. Here was the result:
Absolutely, here are a few studies and reports as of my knowledge cut-off in September 2021, related to the points mentioned:
Remember, ongoing research in this area may provide newer insights, so it's always good practice to look for the most recent studies on the topic. Also, these studies provide evidence based on large populations and may not apply equally to every individual case. Interventions should always be tailored to individual needs and circumstances.
[This is not good enough. You know that you must provide links to material you quote or cite.
Also, you seem to be new to using ChatGPT and an ignorant tool using an ignorant tool. Lprent has already commented on your ignorance.
Responses from ChatGPT, for example, can sound very compelling & convincing and it is easy to be fooled by this. ChatGPT is also prone to what is called ‘hallucinating’, which means it can generate utter BS.
You are in Pre-Mod until you’ve provided links for your alleged sources and checked them.
You cannot hide behind responses from ChatGPT or any other GPT tool. You write & submit the comments and thus they are yours and your responsibility.
This Mod note is mostly educational & instructional because I suspect the use of GPT and other AI tools will become more common here on TS and people have to be aware of the pitfalls, just as they are about using material sourced from MSM and SM.
In other words, this is not personal but a precedent/reference point for future moderation – Incognito]
Mod note
Fair enough:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR564.html
This study relates to education in correctional facilities rather than boot camps. But the key point is that dealing with educational deficiencies reduces offending.
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-00669-004
The second study considered drug interventions in incarcerated communities, including including theraputic communities and boot camps. Positive results in reducing reoffending for theraputic communities. Mixed results for boot camps.
Because National's plan includes remedial education and drug interventions, plus social support, rather than the traditional fitness regime associated with boot camps, I would argue the plan proposed by National is more akin to theraputic communities than boot camps.
http://www.antoniocasella.eu/nume/Andrews_Bonta_Criminal_Justice_Policy_2010.pdf
This study again found that education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments. Although not directly related to boot camps, the similar principles are likely to apply given that in both circumstances, the interventions will apply to confined individuals.
Consequently, I think it is reasonable to argue that any program that includes these elements whether in prison or some other setting where individuals have been confined due to their offending will likely be more effective than merely locking people away or putting them through a fitness regime in the context of a boot camp.
[You made an effort to provide 3/4 links; where’s the 4th link?
The link for the 2nd study goes to an Abstract only; where’s the full study report?
You made an effort to ‘check’ the source material by skimming the key findings and/or abstracts, quite possibly relying on and reiterating what ChatGPT had already generated for you, and I doubt you read those two publications that were 17 pages (13 + 4 pages of references) and 156 pages long, respectively.
For example, where in the study by Andrews and Bonta does it say that “education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments”? It may well be in there somewhere, but the onus is on you to point us to it rather than making us read the whole paper for ourselves (and then coming to a different conclusion).
You don’t seem to be aware that ChatGPT may be intrinsically biased because it is trained on huge volumes of text found on the internet. In addition, you may have increased any bias through your lines of questioning to ChatGPT.
Your selective material, selective quoting, and super-superficial ‘analysis’ suggest that you were simply searching for stuff that confirmed your own bias. You used this as an excuse to spread NACT talking points & propaganda here on TS.
You are trying hard to merge & marry NACT & your apparent preference of boot camps with the findings of those studies when there’s in fact little to no support for this in the material. If I’m incorrect then point to the relevant sections on boot camps in those studies. As far as I can tell, the available evidence in the material you provided is negative re. boot camps and even shows they are counter-productive for the level of recidivism.
You must try harder and you’re wasting other people’s time – Incognito]
Mod note
Hi Incognito.
Very often, abstracts are the best that is available due to publications being in paid subscription journals. So, that is the best I can probably do.
Here is the link I missed. Again an abstract.
For the link below, it is necessary to approach the authors for the full version. So, I am unsure how long it will take to get a response back to that.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232592251_Rehabilitating_Criminal_Justice_Policy_and_Practice
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17991050/
This study found that fifth and six graders improved performance as a result of mentoring.
I disagree with you about relevance. Having read quite a few papers, and written a thesis, it is not unusual to refer to research that in principle should apply in different settings. Sometimes, that is the best that can be done if specific research is not available in that area.
If that were not the case, we would not be conducting medical research on mice and drawing possible implications for humans.
I think it is intuitively obvious that correcting educational gaps, reducing drug addiction, and providing social support would be effective in many settings.
[this is another Mod note for you]
It is the same one as before. The one that is still missing is the one by Shapland and Bottoms.
I’m not asking or expecting you to get the full version from the authors. The issue is that you superficially parade summarised material (abstracts) because it confirms your bias and suits your narrative. Without the all the information & context in a full paper/report all we’re left with is the equivalent of reading headlines or tweets.
That’s lovely but what does this and/or the PubMed link have to do with the Mod notes?
Irrelevant to the Mod notes, as far as I can tell.
Are you comparing youth offenders to lab mice? And boot camps to lab experiments?
I like that! It is intuitively crystal clear that you’re diverting and that you’re wasting more of my precious time – Incognito.
Further to my last comment, that Andrews and Botha paper is actually a very good one, because it suggests that factors such as correcting educational and drug addiction interventions along with social support are necessary for any programs aiming to reduce offending. From that article on page 40:
The article refers to their RNR model as a framework for developing interventions in a wide variety of settings. On page 44 &45:
These are general principles the authors posit should be applied to any program aimed at addressing criminal behaviour in a variety of settings.
And this model is largely met by National's proposed program. In principle at least. Whether that will be implemented effectively is another story.
[You keep on wasting my time with this.
The task at hand is for you to learn the limitations of your uncritical, biased & selective use of ChatGPT to promote NACT talking points & propaganda.
Your task, set by me and with support from other Mods, is not to argue for or defend NACT propaganda but to correct your comments that were missing links and critical commentary by yourself. In other words, ChatGPT sold you lemons and you were and still are trying to sell them off here. But they are now your lemons and you now are the seller, not ChatGPT or whatever or whoever your source was. So, you must take ownership of and responsibility for your comments and be accountable.
This is the basis of robust god-faith debate here on TS and it applies to every commenter.
I’m still waiting for a link + check by you of the 4th article by Shapland and Bottoms. Get on with it because I’m running out of patience and I’ve better things to do.
I also asked you where in the study by Andrews and Bonta does it say “education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments”? This was triggered by your claim “This study again found that education and drug interventions were more effective in reducing offending in prisoners compared to punitive punishments.” I still haven’t seen it, most likely because you made it up.
There’s one more comment of yours pending in Pre-Mod. I will deal with that one too but don’t bother submitting any other comments till this has been resolved, one way or another, as I will send them straight to Trash – Incognito]
Mod note
Limited Service Volunteer programmes have been running through both Labour and National governments. They could be considered a supported form of bootcamp.
They often have young people on them that have been directed there by the Ministry of Social Development, or the Justice System.
I have relatives that have been tasked with running some of these courses in the past.
Unfortunately, the mix of "directed" volunteers and those who have an interest in the Armed Forces as a career disrupts both groups in terms of outcomes.
There's a good report from 2019 that has a wealth of detail in it:
https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/publication/file/259fd2ccdb/Limited-Service-Volunteer-Report.pdf
So similar to current models? Why call it a boot camp? Thread derail.
I have asked the same question. I wish they didn't call it a boot camp. That just makes it a target for critics.
Brilliant.
He did sound totally paranoid in that dual language interview.
What it is called again when you feign a hit job on yourself? Dodging a bullet? Ducking for cover? Deflecting the issue? A coward? A faker? A liar & a cheater?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132534370/labour-hit-job-video-poster-went-to-luxons-public-meeting-in-good-faith
Brilliant gambit/tactic from bus drivers/first union.
From tomorrow to the following Saturday..bus trips will be free..
The driver's will work…but their industrial action is to not collect fares .
That's the way to do it..!
Don't inconvenience the punters…hit the employer where it hurts…their turnover…
This should remake how strikes are done..
(Sits back…fingers steepled..)
I remember – 20 or so years ago – the bus drivers in Sydney doing this.
A very popular tactic with the public.
How effective it will be in shifting the bosses – I don't know.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-bus-drivers-to-give-free-travel-for-a-week-as-industrial-action-continues/7NZMBVGPU5CR7G352KKGKS3K6E/
The point made about the route display info being tied into the Hop machine – does give pause for thought. You really do want to get onto the right bus….
However, it looks as though it may be a bit hit-and-miss – as to whether you get a free ride or not.
Seems like the call from the PM for a focus on basic priorities has been anticipated by the public service:
Would you pay that for those two pieces of furniture? If you would be aghast at the prospect, you probably aren't a public servant…
Thanks for the article. Next time I suggest you read past the headline and first few paragraphs quoting National's cherry-pick. There is plenty of info there that sounds reasonable about the spend.
Can't make a judgement call on bookcase and wardrobe, but if the walls they are to fit are 10 m long, that would explain the costings.
If anyone wishes to educate themselves about the Sovreign Citizen movement, Münecat deep-dives SovCits around the world. A well-researched, comprehensive explanation of the wads of paperwork they wave around. As usual, 1.5x speed gets you through it faster. Spoiler: it boils down to grifters preying on unsure people in a scary world.
David Seymour continues the right-wing grandstanding on crime.
Today he is calling for harsher sentencing for crimes against work places
So is he saying that crimes in workplaces are more serious than crimes in people's homes?
I bet people who suffer home invasions wouldn't agree with him.
It just shows even more plainly that Seymour doesn't really have a clue about how to really address crime, he thinks he can easily solve it by inserting a few words into a government bill.
ACT clearly think that government is an easy glamorous job. Jacinda would chuckle at their naivety.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300927510/act-promises-tougher-sentences-for-attacks-on-workers
AFAICS in the article – there is no mention of relative sentences against crimes committed during a home invasion (which is already, I think, an aggravating circumstance)
He's simply talking about making attacking a worker – in their place of employment, carrying out their usual job – an aggravating factor at the time of sentencing.
It's likely to be pretty popular for those who've been seeing local small business workers assaulted, not to mention nurses, ambos and firefighters attacked while they're trying to actually save lives.
The comparison would be with an assault in the street, or in a pub, or at a political rally. Where the assault sentence would not have the additional factor included.
This is more of the same proposal to restrict judges over sentencing that ACT have already signalled in several other areas. So nothing new from them.
I am less confident that ACT are, that they can actually influence judicial sentencing- but perhaps they have a plan if they are in government next year….
Nope, Seymour, Luxon, and NACT don’t want to solve crime. They are cynically manipulating opinion to win votes and the Treasury benches. Just look at their policies, mostly not or poorly costed (what’s $1.5B aanyway?), because they don’t give a toss.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132546099/government-admits-it-made-a-mistake-when-keeping-a-lid-on-the-carbon-price
Hipkins’ government can break its own laws to keep the farmers happy and doesn’t really have a plan to clean up its mess.