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Open mike 13/10/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 13th, 2021 - 127 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

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127 comments on “Open mike 13/10/2021 ”

  1. Jenny how to get there 1
    13 October 2021 at 6:22 am

    Sign the petition get the government to recommit to Elimination.

    NZ Government: Recommit to elimination of COVID-19

    https://www.change.org/p/nz-government-recommit-to-elimination-of-covid-19?

    Reply
    • Alan 1.1
      13 October 2021 at 8:02 am

      Have you not witnessed what has happened in pretty much ever other country around the world Jenny? The horse has bolted, this petition is futile.

      Reply
    • Jester 1.2
      13 October 2021 at 8:28 am

      Waste of time. If NZ goes back to level 4 for say the next 24 months, we will eliminate it. Great. As soon as we open up, Covid will return. You cant live under a rock forever hiding from something that you are in fear of.

      Reply
      • Molly 1.2.1
        13 October 2021 at 12:13 pm

        However, treatments that are more effective may well be developed, saving lives, communities and businesses.

        Reply
      • McFlock 1.2.2
        13 October 2021 at 2:48 pm

        Said the hiker about the bear.

        Actually, it would be less than a couple of months, with full compliance.

        But if it was 24 months, most of the covid strains would be much more mild, because they ones that kill their hosts die sooner. E.g. the 19818 flu waves by the mid-twenties.

        Reply
        • joe90 1.2.2.1
          13 October 2021 at 2:51 pm

          Reply
          • Jenny how to get there 1.2.2.1.1
            13 October 2021 at 5:13 pm

            Is this a veiled threat?

            Reply
          • Jester 1.2.2.1.2
            13 October 2021 at 11:39 pm

            Good video. Brave man to let a warthog get that close as they are vicious.

            But I don't really see what the video has to do with anything?

            Reply
            • McFlock 1.2.2.1.2.1
              14 October 2021 at 1:09 am

              Brave?

              Or did he have an overinflated opinion of his ability to control something that he should have feared?

              Reply
            • Joe90 1.2.2.1.2.2
              14 October 2021 at 8:51 am

              Virus isn't so bad, see, we can come out from under our rock and live with it…[voice of reason – probably best we don't even try living with it] ..right up until you're treed in a rondavel squeaking help, help meee…

              Reply
        • Cricklewood 1.2.2.2
          13 October 2021 at 3:13 pm

          Not necessarily, as current vaccines dont sterlize the virus there is a possibility a more potent and resistant strain that is able to overcome vaccination emerges to prominence in which case all bets are off.

          Reply
          • lprent 1.2.2.2.1
            13 October 2021 at 4:09 pm

            You and I can bet that will happen (and I only bet on things that I evaluate as near sure things – ie I seldom gamble for money at all). The only real issue is the timing.

            Natural immunity is also pretty well impossible with this particular virus apart from the longer term prospect. Eventually it kills off or causes every one who gets it to not breed well. There are known verified cases where people have caught variants or even the same variant of covid-19 after having a previous infection with covid-19 – as well as the same kinds of breakthrough infections with fully vaccinated.

            There is a reason why the bat populations where the disease originated have the probably the most ferocious immune systems we know of in mammals. Long-term selection from this disease and other socially endemic diseases being endemic in their populations.

            Ultimately we need to manage to get a sterilising vaccine or treatment because otherwise this disease will probably eventually crush our health systems. The incidence and time extent of long-covid is too high.

            I suspect that repeated exposures are going to wear down the peoples immune systems. If covid-19 doesn't get you then something else will.

            The reason that our more complex health systems work (and our life expectancy in the west keep rising) is because we have managed to reduce the wear and tear of diseases on the immune systems with public health measures over the past 150 years. At present I'm expecting that to reverse for most of this decade with this disease.

            Reply
            • weka 1.2.2.2.1.1
              13 October 2021 at 4:22 pm

              That's sobering. I wish NZ was talking about this more, far too many people think we're going back to normal next year.

              What are your thoughts on the Auckland outbreak and what should be done at the moment, in the context of the bigger and longer picture above?

              Reply
          • McFlock 1.2.2.2.2
            13 October 2021 at 4:33 pm

            Well, it's not so much a case of "overcoming" vaccination as random mutations eventually tweak the main protein most vaccines currently help the immune system to target. Like the flu vaccine does – why some of use get new flu shots every year: it's not just because the previous year's vax has worn off somehow, it's because while the Northern Hemisphere was having their flu season some new varients emerged.

            But the thing about more harmful variants is that they get spotted sooner (because people get seriously ill rather than not noticing a sniffle), and are prioritised for research/medications/vaccines more highly. So they still have less of a reproductive advantage than essentially harmless variants.

            Reply
        • Ed1 1.2.2.3
          13 October 2021 at 5:38 pm

          Probably one more week in level 4 would have been enough; now it may take another 3 weeks to achieve it. Worth it for level 1 or 2 by Christmas.

          Reply
        • Jester 1.2.2.4
          13 October 2021 at 11:26 pm

          Yes but how would you get full compliance from the gangs? It makes no difference to them whether its level 1,2,3 or 4.

          Reply
          • McFlock 1.2.2.4.1
            14 October 2021 at 12:47 am

            Fair call to a degree, but they're not complete morons, either. Most of them know that being the only ones on the street increases the odds of getting stopped. Some of the more stupid ones demonstrated that.

            But also, even without perfect compliance with L4 the problem isn't so much the gangs as the possibility of wholesale rejection of controls, like in Melbourne. An indeterminate purgatory of half the population in lockdown and the other half listening to infantile opinionators in the media or religious frauds.

            Someone at the dirty end of criminal activity is not getting essential worker status for that. "Covid compliance" is an even broader brush for stops and arrests (and the concomitant vehicle search for officer safety) than breach of the peace or traffic infringement. It's literally an excuse to arrest anyone in public if they're not essential workers or with a reasonable excuse to be out.

            So assuming that they're okay with disease ravaging their community and families, the leaders of all criminal enterprises would need to ask themselves whether a limited hiatus on earning is more cost-effective than actively losing earnings and distribution staff to law enforcement. Hell, the government could allow suspected leaders of such organisations to travel into restricted areas in order to deliver that message personally. Along with other leaders of disaffected and socially alienated communities (in the general idea that maybe community leaders have more credibility with the members of those communities than might be the domain of official government representatives).

            Reply
      • Jenny how to get there 1.2.3
        13 October 2021 at 5:08 pm

        Jester

        13 October 2021

        …Waste of time. If NZ goes back to level 4 for say the next 24 months,….

        24 months?

        Surely you joke, Jester.

        24 months is a hysterical over exageration of the time needed to achieve elimination.

        The Level 4 Lockdown in Auckland almost killed off the Delta covid varient, before it was lifted early before it had finished its job.

        Another one, possibly two more weeks, would have eliminated it completely.

        And we would be back in Level 1 by now.

        This TVNZ timeline graph shows the whole sorry tale.

        The Level 4 Lockdown was put in place on 17 August. Daily infections reached a peak of 86 before plateuing around August 30 and then started dropping sharply about the 1st of September. As the Level 4 Alert started to take effect, daily cases kept dropping to a low of 22 cases on 21 September. Against expert public health advice. On 21 September the Level 4 Alert was dropped to Level 3, despite 22 daily cases, two of which could not be linked to any known cluster. Eight days later the infections started rising again. And haven't stopped rising.

        Reply
        • Jenny how to get there 1.2.3.1
          13 October 2021 at 7:04 pm

          The above photo of the TVNZ timeline graph doesn't quite capture the full awfulness of the government's retreat from elimination.

          After lowering the Level 4 Alert to Level 3 and numbers started rising, the government loosened restrictions in Auckland even futher.

          See photo in link below.

          https://asiapacificreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/TVNZ-graph-101021-680wide.png

          Reply
        • Jester 1.2.3.2
          13 October 2021 at 11:35 pm

          Yes 24 months is an exageration, but a Level 4 lockdown for say 12 weeks then, would eliminate. But guess what? Covid would still come back and pop up again.

          I hope they don't do any more level 4 lockdowns as by December everyone that wants to be vaccinated will be. But I do hope they have increased ICU capacity at hospitals.

          Reply
          • Jenny how to get there 1.2.3.2.1
            14 October 2021 at 7:45 am

            90% vaccination of the eligible population is a good practical achievable target to aim for, 95% vaccination of the total population is what is needed.

            Maybe when the vaccine is approved for use on over 5s we could get near that figure.

            Even then, more ICU beds will be needed.

            We are at war and our government are surrendering.

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126671440/covid19-virus-will-sweep-through-auckland-after-level-3-loosening-modeller-warns

            Reply
            • Jester 1.2.3.2.1.1
              14 October 2021 at 8:21 am

              I don't think the government are surrendering. I think they realise that people will only be locked down for so long. Eventually life has to go on. I'm in Auckland and many people are already over it. People at Okahu Bay and Mission Bay have been at level 1 for the last few weeks anyway. This step one of level 3 where you can have a picnic with another bubble, as the govt know, people have been doing this for weeks already.

              And as for the gangs…well it's always been level one for them as we hear on the news (and then they have the audacity to not be cooperative with the authorities).

              Reply
              • Jenny how to get there …
                18 October 2021 at 9:09 pm

                Jester

                14 October 2021

                I don't think the government are surrendering….

                …..as for the gangs…well it's always been level one for them as we hear on the news (and then they have the audacity to not be cooperative with the authorities).

                "There is no such thing as bad soldiers, only bad generals" Napoleon

                Now I am sure that Napoleon's army had the usual minority of drunkards, deserters, and trouble makers of any army. Of course there is such a thing as bad soldiers. The point that Napoleon was making is that he or his generals could not put the blame for their failures on this minority.

                The minority of rule breakers including the gangs and sex workers rough sleepers, drug addicts, and the other marginalised communities make for a handy scapegoat. But they are not the major source of the current uncontrolled spread of the virus.

                If enough people do it, just like vaccination, Lockdown creates herd immunity. Just like vaccination, if enough people do it, Lockdown protects the minority of people who don't.

                To make my point, one of the most egregious cases of rule breaking and the one you alluded to, was the case of the two sex workers that traveled through Northland on false essential worker credentials, and then refused to tell the authorities who they had met with or where they had been. Surely this must be a worst case of rule breaking by two individuals. But this rare and unusual case, did not result in a mass spreader event and Northland has just been downgraded to Level 2.

                So where should we look for the failure of this country's covid response?

                When the Level 4 alert for Auckland was lowered. 200,000 workers who had been isolatiing at home were ordered back to work.

                There is your daily mass spreader event right there.

                https://asiapacificreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/TVNZ-graph-101021-680wide.png

                The real cause of the current uncontrolled rise in covid invections is revealed in the TVNZ timeline graph, above. The timeline clearly shows the dramatic rise in cases following the Level 4 lockdown being lifted.

                Just as you say, Jester. It has always been level one for the minority of rule breakers like the gangs. But despite the actions of this tiny minority, the virus was being crushed under Level 4.

                From a high of 83 around about August 30 followed by a dramatic drop, to single figures around about September 22, followed by a rise, beginning eight days, after the lifting of the Level 4 lockdown, (the incubation period of the virus). An upward rise in cases that has continued.

                The change in government policy not the gangs is the cause of the current rise.

                Reply
                • Jester …
                  18 October 2021 at 10:28 pm

                  So after all that waffle, what is your solution? Stay in level 4 forever? When / if we finally get to level 2 there will probably be a further rise in cases but wont matter as enough people vaccinated so mostly recover at home. I want to know what Auckland has to do to get to open up to at least level 2. Is it 90% vaccinated? 95%? And I'm sure there is a few restaurants, bars, hairdressers and shops that would love to know. But after todays announcement they are none the wiser other than they are out of business for a further two weeks at least and still don't know what Auckland needs to do until at least Friday.

                  Reply
                  • Jenny how to get there …
                    19 October 2021 at 9:09 am

                    Jester

                    18 October 2021 at 10:28 pm

                    So after all that waffle, what is your solution? Stay in level 4 forever?….

                    Again you exagerate and fear monger to oppose proven measures of stopping preventable illness and deaths. This fearmongering and exageration prevents us debating the real matters that are in the balance to be decided.

                    The health experts and epidemic modelers have called on the government to apply a "circuit breaker" Level 4 lockdown to stop the rate of infection reaching into to triple figures.
                    So far the government have refused to heed this health advice.

                    "I want to know what Auckland has to do to get to open up to at least level 2. Is it 90% vaccinated? 95%?" Jester

                    Part of the answer to this question, Jester, has been supplied by the Auckland District Health board, who have stated that at 90% vaccination rate they are preparing the hospitals for 6 deaths and 33 hospitalisations a week.

                    The real question Jester, that is in the balance to be decided, is how much preventable death and illness will we accept in return, for business as usual?

                    The government has not made it explicit, but it seems that 6 preventable deaths and 33 preventable hospital admissions is acceptable to them as the price for fully opening up the economy and to hell with kindness.

                    "And I'm sure there is a few restaurants, bars, hairdressers and shops that would love to know. But after todays announcement they are none the wiser other than they are out of business for a further two weeks at least and still don't know what Auckland needs to do until at least Friday." Jester

                    https://asiapacificreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/TVNZ-graph-101021-680wide.png

                    From the graph above, you can see that we were very close to nation wide elimination under the Level 4 Auckland Alert. If the government had not lost its nerve. we could be at Level 1 now. Not a certainty, but the sharp downward heading trend did seem to show that. Of course we will never no for sure now.

                    Certainty was lost when government abandoned the Alert Level System and replaced it with the Three Step Roadmap to reopen the borders.
                    As you can clearly see on the graph, Stage One and no doubt the other steps to come on this Roadmap, are to be applied even as infections continue to climb. But reality has turned the Roadmap into a vague and confusing mess, with little certainty of anything. Only the first step or stage has been completed, with no idea of when the others steps will occur, or even if the Roadmap still exists.

                    But at least we are getting down to the real reasons for the refusal to continue the Elimination Strategy, which is the economic hardship on business and small proprietors. Nothing to do with gangs or sex workers or the minority of rule breakers. Which are just handy scapegoats for our failure to prioritise lives and public health over business interests.

                    Don't get me wrong Jester, the destruction and turmoil and economic hardship and pain being visited on small business and households from lockdown is very real and a concern to me. But this paiin is not being shared equally. The big banks and financiers have had no lockdown.

                    If we really wanted to eliminate the virus and return us to Level 1, we would impose a Level 4 Lockdown with a full rent and mortgage moratorium to help households and business ride out the hardship.

                    This meaure is not unheard of. A moratorium on mortgages was implemented in 1914 due to the crisis brought about by the World War. And in 1931 a mortgage and rent moratorium was brought in due to the crisis of the World Economic Depression.

                    …..by 1931, it was clear that further intervention was necessary to prevent widespread foreclosures and mortgagee sales…..

                    ….Although mortgage relief was frequently discussed at some length by
                    contemporary commentators, and by some historians in the 1950s and
                    1960s, it has been relegated to a few lines at most in more recent works.’

                    …..This Act also extended to lessees [renters] the same protection
                    that had been granted to mortgagors,

                    The modification of mortgage conditions was not new in New Zealand. A ‘mortgage moratorium’ had been imposed as a war measure in 1914,

                    http://www.nzjh.auckland.ac.nz/docs/1987/NZJH_21_2_03.pdf

                    Obviously the government does not think that the current Covid crisis is as severe as these past crises, or they would have implemented the same emergency measures.

                    You asked me Jester;

                    "So after all that waffle, what is your solution?"

                    That's my solution. Nationwide Level 4 Lockdown with full rent and mortgage moratorium until the virus is eliminated.

                    Afterall is said and done, it is not like the big Aussie owned banks, which take $3.5b out of our economy and off shore, every year, can't afford it.

                    P.S. You may think this crisis is not severe enough to warrant such extreme measures, but the people who sicken and end up in hospital and families of those directly affected may disagree.

                    Reply
                    • Jester …
                      19 October 2021 at 5:47 pm

                      So we have a harder than level 4 lockdown for (who knows how long) a time period including rent moratoriums etc. and we end up with say 14 days of no cases! Awesome. Then we open up and a few weeks later the virus comes back again and we start getting cases again. Then what? Another lockdown?

                  • Jenny how to get there …
                    20 October 2021 at 10:21 am

                    Jester

                    19 October 2021 at 5:47 pm

                    So we have a harder than level 4 lockdown for (who knows how long)….

                    ….Then what? Another lockdown?

                    Possibly, but more likely everyone is vaccinated by then. (At least everyone who can be vaccinated.) And resulting deaths and illness are minimal and as small as possibly could be achieved.

                    It's this interim period we are talking about, where it has been decided to let the virus rip even while the population has not yet reached the target 90% vaccination level.
                    (The end of lockdown could be the carrot/whip to encourage vaccination, unfortunately this carrot and whip has been ruled out, ensureing that vaccination will not be as high as it possibly could have been, if the government had stayed the course.)

                    I admire your honesty in that you admit to this trade off in preventable deaths and illness has been made for the good of the economy.

                    We are not seeing this honesty being admitted in many places.

                    Early on worksites were identified by the Prime Minister as the source of spread of the Virus even under Level 4, despite this, infections kept dropping. That is until the Level 4 Alert was lifted on the 21st of September and 200,000 Auckland workers returned to their workplaces to mingle and spread the virus. One week later the infections which had been on a steep decline, began the upward trend, which hasn't stopped. On October 4, despite the continueing rise in infections, restrictions were loosened again.

                    Level 4 can can compensate for the minority of rule breakers. The looser Level 3 cannot.

                    Honesty means admitting that it was government policy that decided to let the virus rip for the good of the economy at the cost of public health.

                    Unfortunately your honesty in admitting this fact, is not being followed by our policy makers who are embarked on major frenzy of finger pointing and blamestorming the tiny minority of rule breakers for the current outbreak due to their change in policy direction.

                    This dishonesty does not inspire confidence in our leadership. Or even the certainty that business crave.

                    Two millionaires horse breeders who broke lockdown to fly to Queensland, did not lead to an outbreak. Two sex workers who toured the North, did not lead to an outbreak. A wild party on the North Shore attended by 50 people, looks unlikely to lead to an outbreak.

                    The government has embarked on a policy of letting the virus rip.

                    But rather than accept responsibility, the screaming headlines for the next couple of weeks, as hospital admissions rise and deaths start occuring, will be concentrated on the rule breakers as the cause.

                    The honest thing to do would be admit to the policy change behind the rising infections and put it to the public for their support.

                    Dishonesty does not engender confidence.

                    "There is no such thing a bad soldiers only bad generals" Napoleon

                    As the health experts have said, kissing goodbye to level 4 means kissing goodbye to level 1.

                    So say goodbye to a Covid Free Christtmas and summer.

                    Reply
                    • Jester …
                      20 October 2021 at 5:50 pm

                      So reading this, all you are suggesting is giving people more time to get vaccinated ie. up over the 90% or whatever.

                      "Possibly, but more likely everyone is vaccinated by then. (At least everyone who can be vaccinated.) And resulting deaths and illness are minimal and as small as possibly could be achieved."

                      I say no to that, people need to be get off their backsides and get vaccinated NOW if they want to. Else take their chances unvaccinated if that is what they want. They can be fully vaccinated by December the 1st if they get vaccinated now. But the rest of us (the vaxinated majority) cant be held back forever waiting.

                      Personally, if it was up to me, I would say, you've already had your chance to get vaccinated (taxis, buses, KFC vouchers, other vouchers and a vaxathon and various other financial incentives have been oferred) and we are opening up on 1st of November.

                  • Jenny how to get there …
                    21 October 2021 at 4:47 am

                    Jester

                    20 October 2021

                    So reading this, all you are suggesting is giving people more time to get vaccinated ie. up over the 90% or whatever…..

                    I say no to that, people need to be get off their backsides and get vaccinated NOW if they want to. Else take their chances unvaccinated if that is what they want…..

                    ….I would say, you've already had your chance to get vaccinated (taxis, buses, KFC vouchers, other vouchers and a vaxathon and various other financial incentives have been oferred) and we are opening up on 1st of November.

                    'Devil take the hindmost', (as the saying goes). Eh Jester?

                    Weka puts it best:

                    Covid and kindness

                    Written By: WEKA – Date published:10:16 am, October 20th, 2021

                    I’m still seeing a fair number of people advocating for ‘opening up’ on the basis of either individual responsibility (‘I’m vaccinated’), and/or fuck the lazy/selfish bastards (‘never mind 90% vax rate, we can’t wait’)….

                    As well as trashing our international reputation for protecting the welfare and health of our most vulnerable. There is another serious flaw in your plan to sacrifice others' lives and health, just so you can open up the country by November.

                    The fact is, that at the very best, vaccines are only 90% effective. Vaccination approachs 100% effectiveness in stopping the spread of a viral infection, the more people get vaccinated. The so called 'herd immunity' does not just protect the unvaccinated, it also protects the fully vaccinated by filling in for that 10% failure rate.

                    That is how vaccination works. It is how we eliminated polio.

                    What this means, is that below 90% vaccination coverage, even some of the fully vaccinated can still catch the virus, and sicken and possibly even die.

                    Who knows, it could even by you, or one of your loved ones.

                    So purely on a selfish basis it is in your interest to get as many others vaccinated as possible before opening up.

                    Colin Powell was fully vaccinated, but he still died from COVID complications. How rare is that?

                    Adrianna Rodriguez – USA TODAY, Oct. 18, 2021

                    ….the former secretary of state and retired four-star general was fully vaccinated against the disease….

                    ….The CDC also reports that as of Oct. 12, 7,178 deaths among vaccinated people; 85% of the deaths are in people 65 and older….

                    ….Research suggests that may be happening among other populations, too. A study in August from the CDC showed vaccine effectiveness decreased among health care workers who were fully vaccinated since the time the delta coronavirus variant became widespread.

                    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/10/18/vaccine-covid-19-colin-powell-high-risk/8505663002/

                    I don’t think much of your plan to sacrifice the old and also put at risk our health care workers who have sacrificed so much for us during this pandemic.
                    And what for? So the Aussie owned banks can keep screwing this country into the ground even during a pandemic?

                    P.S. So far, no country has yet been able to achieve herd immunity levels of vaccination against Covid-19. New Zealand could be the first. I think it is a worthy goal to attempt. We were the first country to show that elimination was possible to world acclaim. Another world first in the global fight against Covid-19, would do wonders for this country's international reputation. And on a purely personal note, my father is 86, and fully vaccinated. My father still enjoys life. I wouldn't want him to die of a fully preventable disease because of your selfishness.

                    Reply
                    • Jester …
                      21 October 2021 at 8:28 am

                      Colin Powell died of cancer.

                      It sounds like we will simply have to agree to disagree then. Locking down a town / city /country indefinitely simply wont work.

                      It would be interesting to know how many people have died due to the lockdowns. This Covid outbreak this year has killed 2 people, one in their nineties, and one in their fifties with health issues. I'm sure the mental health and procedures and treatments postponed have probably killed more.

                  • Jenny how to get there …
                    21 October 2021 at 2:18 pm

                    Jester

                    21 October 2021 at 8:28 am

                    Colin Powell died of cancer……

                    Really?

                    You started this thread by falsely claiming that the latest outbreak is the result of the minority of rule breakers.

                    Open mike 13/10/2021

                    Then you moved on, to say that those that didn't get immunised deserved to sicken and die.

                    Open mike 13/10/2021

                    To which I pointed out that without achieving herd immunity some of the fully vaccinated will also sicken and possibly even die.

                    Now, to fit your narrative that we must reopen by November, you claimed that Colin Powel didn't die of Covid -19, but died of cancer.

                    Yes, Colin Powel did have cancer, but it wasn't a fatal kind.

                    Myeloma is more commonly seen in people over 60, said Dr. Don Benson, hematologist-oncologist at The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center.

                    Roughly 35,000 cases of myeloma are reported in the U.S. each year. Although it’s considered an incurable cancer, most patients don’t die from the disease itself.

                    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/10/18/vaccine-covid-19-colin-powell-high-risk/8505663002/

                    Another lie is that lockdown has caused more deaths than not locking down.

                    Jester

                    21 October 2021 at 8:28 am

                    ……This Covid outbreak this year has killed 2 people, one in their nineties, and one in their fifties with health issues. I'm sure the mental health and procedures and treatments postponed have probably killed more.

                    All statistics of a drop in background deaths from all causes during lockdown, disprove this Lie. Even deaths from suicide declined under Level 4 Lockdown.

                    https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/weekly-deaths-declined-nzs-lockdown-we-still-dont-know-exactly-why

                    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-fewer-suicides-during-lockdown-level-4-chief-coroner/Z6R2IN5LN67LNLYDADTSTNWSIE/

                    The fact is that lockdown stops our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, preventing people who could otherwise be treated of curable illness and accidents getting a bed, because all the beds, especially, critical care beds are filled up with covid patients.

                    To argue the opposite against the facts is to go against all reason.

                    Frankly Jester. I am disappointed. From arguing that we need to balance the loss of lives against the economic harm of Lockdown, which is a fair point, and an honest position to debate, you have reverted to lieing.

                    But I can understand why you might feel motivated to dissemble. Because when faced with a pandemic, the main reason for opposing lockdown, is the prioritising of making money over people's lives and health, is a motive repulsive to most people, possibly if you dared admit to it, repulsive to your self.

                    Reply
  2. Dennis Frank 2
    13 October 2021 at 6:27 am

    Re the govt's pivot toward North Korea in response to Key's prompt, will we see him leaping excitedly about in front of the news camera yelling "Told ya so!! Got it right! State compulsion!"?

    Folks here yesterday pointing out that it's actually state coercion are technically correct – but will those on the receiving end feel the difference? I'm inclined to doubt it.

    So will the govt now open an embassy in NK? Send an ambassador to tell the wee fat guy "Hey, we do rockets, just like you! We do state control of citizens too! Any other bright ideas?" His response: "Cool, yes! Take out bad cabinet minsters with anti-aircraft gun! Sends message to other ministers: do as told!"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyon_Yong-chol

    Bit late to apply retrospectively to Twyford & Clark I guess, but you can see how the PM would open the following cabinet meeting: "Right, the North Korean option. Here's where we're going with this…"

    Reply
  3. Chris T 3
    13 October 2021 at 7:54 am

    Bit of a side story. But something I found interesting.

    Seymour's End of life choice Act comes in, in less than a month.

    They have published how much Doctors and other medical staff will get who chose to carry out the procedure.

    $1087.20 a time.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300428689/assisted-dying-doctors-to-be-paid-1087-to-perform-procedure-starting-next-month

    Reply
  4. Joe90 4
    13 October 2021 at 8:42 am

    On the media's undermining of the public health response to covid.

    https://badnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-fifth-columnists

    Reply
    • Gezza 4.1
      13 October 2021 at 9:02 am

      I never even finished reading that. He shows up the opinionist critics as complete tossers so well by about halfway thru I didn’t have any desire to be further depressed by reading on about how ill-informed & ridiculous the perennial critics like Soper & HDPA, & Mike Hosking & Kate Hawkesby are.

      Shock jockism at its worst.

      Reply
    • observer 4.2
      13 October 2021 at 10:21 am

      I hope everybody can find the time to read that piece. It is the most comprehensive round-up of the idiotic reckons which infect the "debate". Grim but essential reading. Worth bookmarking.

      Reply
    • miravox 4.3
      13 October 2021 at 10:59 am

      Covid's greatest secret weapon is it creates no visible marks.

      Maybe we'll have to wait until a covid mutation of concern (bound to happen) that gives people covid fingers, or covid nose rather than covid toe – something people can see, like a body covered in pustules, before the opinionists take a public health response of elimination seriously.

      Then they can helpfully rage if the elimination is too slow.

      Reply
    • chris T 4.4
      13 October 2021 at 12:18 pm

      That is one seriously long winded way of someone saying they don't agree with other peoples opinions and only their's is right

      Reply
      • observer 4.4.1
        13 October 2021 at 12:39 pm

        No, he's saying that the people with those opinions don't agree with their own opinions, depending on the toss of a coin that day. The opinions aren't based on a good-faith analysis of the evidence, but only on the requirement to have opinions.

        It's only "long-winded" because there are so many examples to cite.

        Reply
        • McFlock 4.4.1.1
          13 October 2021 at 2:54 pm

          First tactic: there's no evidence;

          if that is patently false, choose between "yawn" and "explaining is losing".

          Reply
    • Drowsy M. Kram 4.5
      13 October 2021 at 12:32 pm

      Great critique of NZ's 5th column ‘opinionists’ – the inconvenience this pandemic has caused Hosking/Hawkesby/Soper/HDP/Roughan/Yardley/Bridge et al. is heartbreaking.

      Reply
      • Dennis Frank 4.5.1
        13 October 2021 at 1:38 pm

        Yeah that graph says it all, eh? Presuming it's accurate (recalling the old adage re lies, damn lies, & statistics). Doesn't give the right any leverage at all. And all that hoo-hah for months about opening the border to get back to business as usual got their credibility destroyed by Delta. It's like they want to pretend the contagion ain't real. But I suppose you could argue it's just the old ruling class social darwinist stance getting a re-run. Collateral damage is tolerable, I bet they think, assuming it won't happen to them…

        Reply
      • McFlock 4.5.2
        13 October 2021 at 2:55 pm

        It's almost as if having a sick population is bad for your wealth…

        Reply
  6. Janet 6
    13 October 2021 at 9:52 am

    If they sourced a vaccine for those whose bodies cannot handle the glycol lipids in the vaccine then 10 % more people could be vaccinated. Might mean we save a few teachers !

    Reply
    • weka 7.1
      13 October 2021 at 12:37 pm

      his position seems reasonable to me. Essentially he wants a much tighter border between Auckland and Northland so Northland people can focus on the vaccination programme in a calmer manner rather than the panic that's happening now. All of that to protect people most vulnerable to a covid infection.

      Reply
      • Patricia Bremner 7.1.1
        13 October 2021 at 2:11 pm

        Hone cares and has vulnerable people to protect. He is fed up with incursions, I agree with you Weka.

        Reply
        • Gezza 7.1.1.1
          13 October 2021 at 2:51 pm

          So do I, but that shocker of a hot-headed, foul-mouthed temper he sometimes displays leads him into fucking avoidable trouble sometimes.

          Reply
    • Pete 7.2
      13 October 2021 at 3:23 pm

      I don't think Harawira's lost the plot. I think he's being quite mild.

      A woman and her mate travelled to Northland when they should not have. From what has been published one of them at least conned the system. At least one of them had covid.

      Neither of them were forthcoming with the details of their trip. One of them it seems went out of her way to avoid being questioned and still is not fully co-operative.

      Ignore the fact that they may have come to Northland deposited Covid, departed and apparently had no compunction about what they could have left behind. Ignore all the direct health angles.

      At the moment 194,000 Northlanders are living their lives according to the dictates of the actions of the two women.

      Hone Harawira and the region's leaders are being very measured.

      Reply
      • Gezza 7.2.1
        13 October 2021 at 4:11 pm

        Oh? Swearing? Using the fucking word for reporters is being measured, is it?

        From someone who’s a former MP & a well-known (& generally well-liked by some, including me) public figure?

        Do you want Jacinda Ardern to use the fucking word in interviews about the Auckland women cheating their way into Northland too? Or Chris Hipkins? Or Ashleigh Bloomfield? Or Kelvin Davis?

        Would that be “measured” of them. Take your time to think before replying about the others. Because if you don’t approve of them using profanities, I’m interested in why it doesn’t bother you when Hone Harawira does, but it would bother you if THEY did.

        Reply
        • woodart 7.2.1.1
          13 October 2021 at 5:12 pm

          perhaps most of us dont phucking care. dont waste our phucking time by ignoring hone's message.

          Reply
        • Pete 7.2.1.2
          13 October 2021 at 5:32 pm

          By your reckoning Harawira's lost the plot because he used the particular word.

          The Herald quoted him as saying, "We need to slam the f****** door on Auckland. Let's focus on us and healing ourselves."

          In August the Herald carried a story of the Ombudsman saying a college should apologise to a schoolboy who'd been expelled for swearing at a teacher.

          According to the report the boy told the teacher to "f*** off."

          Of course the boy didn't say "f*** off." He said "Fuck off." Everyone knows that. Why didn't the Herald print it like that? We can handle seeing it written without it being written fully? Bizarre. If the word is so offensive they should not have used it at all. The Herald obviously considered quoting Harawira verbatim was acceptable. If they didn't they wouldn't have used it.

          The Ombudsman didn't think it was the end of the world when it was used directly at someone I an aggressive tone.

          fucking | ˈfʌkɪŋ | adjective [attributive] & adverb [as submodifier] vulgar slang used for emphasis or to express anger, annoyance, contempt, or surprise.

          Harawira used the word in that sense. His anger was directed at the situation not the individuals who deserve much forceful language directed at them. How angry is he? Enough to voice it in a way which gets attention. A pity the attention is on a word not the reason for the anger, whether it is justified and whether the situation he addresses could have been avoided.

          Reply
          • Gezza 7.2.1.2.1
            13 October 2021 at 6:03 pm

            So Jacinda Ardern doesn’t care enuf to swear about it? Is that what you’re saying?

            Or are you saying some public figures can swear addressing reporters & it’s not a problem?

            Which ones? And which ones shouldn’t?

            Reply
            • Pete 7.2.1.2.1.1
              13 October 2021 at 6:35 pm

              Because Jacinda Ardern doesn't express herself like that means she doesn’t care? That's silly. Everyone has their own way of expressing things. Public figures address reporters as they wish.

              Over aeons politicians have fraternised with journalists. Relationships mean a politician describing another as an 'arsehole' isn't going to be published like that. Not seeing or hearing it it doesn't mean that florid language hasn't been used.

              The Herald thinks the word is offensive enough to not use it fully, to sort of pretend to use it but not so offensive as to not use it at all.

              Reply
              • Gezza …
                13 October 2021 at 7:03 pm

                Hone diminishes his mana using profanities in public. Everybody does.
                That’s why Ardern & the others don’t do it in public.

                Thank you.
                You may sit back down again. 👍🏼

                Reply
  8. Adrian 8
    13 October 2021 at 12:51 pm

    God was taking a morning saunter through Heaven looking windswept and interesting as is his want when he comes across this sorry looking new arrival and says to him “ What the fuck are you doing here? “ the recently worldly resident replies “ I died of Covid “ , “ Why weren’t you vaccinated “ says God , “ Because I prayed to you to send me help and it didn’t come “ ,” You dumb shit, I sent you Ashley, and Michael and Shaun, the one with the funny hair and Jacinda, now fuck off back to Purgatory to have a think about it and get vacced while you’re about it, and don’t think you’re getting back in here until then” .

    Reply
    • Ad 9.1
      13 October 2021 at 1:58 pm

      Shaw warned us that he would not have anything organised for Glasgow, because of consultation blablabla.

      But by the time he comes back mid-November he then runs a higher risk of not getting the figures and costs into the Treasury Budget cycle for 2022 to implement the Big Whole Of Government plan.

      That would be a thing, both operationally and politically.

      Reply
  10. Gezza 10
    13 October 2021 at 1:48 pm

    .

    Ella & Elvis: The Movie. Ella learns to lock up when she goes out – watch out for the rat at 3.07…

    Reply
    • dv 10.1
      13 October 2021 at 2:06 pm

      Cute Geeza

      yesyesyes

      Reply
    • Shanreagh 10.2
      13 October 2021 at 3:48 pm

      'Hey wait up gorgeous' says Elvis to Ella was it?

      'I wonder if my washing is wet'

      Fabulous Gezza. smiley

      I was a bit scared to watch it at first because of the rat.

      I have a blackbird friend who for the third year running has made the nest in a shrub outside my kitchen window and I found a little tiny bird outside on the lawn and no doubt a rat has been. I will put a good nature trap there. My neighbour has an anything goes compost bin and I often get her rats exploring. Not that I don't have them but I poison and my compost bins have got wirenetting barriers.

      Reply
  11. Ad 11
    13 October 2021 at 2:26 pm

    I want to know why bats have been included in the Bird of the Year competition.

    Bats are not birds. Bats should not be included. Though of course I support them.

    Reply
  12. Cricklewood 12
    13 October 2021 at 2:49 pm

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/126663599/govt-puts-ideas-to-slash-emissions-out-for-feedback

    This is seriously underwhelming and lacking in ambition… nuclear free moment my arse.

    I doubt anything James Shaw has to say will be taken seriously in Glasgow…

    Reply
    • weka 12.1
      13 October 2021 at 3:12 pm

      very depressing. I still reckon it's going to take a major grass roots effort to get teh govt to act.

      Reply
      • Cricklewood 12.1.1
        13 October 2021 at 5:56 pm

        Is it worth James Shaw's and by proxy the Greens reputation to be actually presenting this stuff to the public and holding the line that its the right path as far as climate change is concerned?

        Would it be better to pull the pin very publicly and say Labour wasnt prepared to do enough and if you want meaningful action on climate you need to vote Green?

        Reply
        • Ad 12.1.1.1
          13 October 2021 at 6:00 pm

          James has too much riding on this to quit before Glasgow, and he's signed the Greens up to this response as Minister.

          But if ever there were an issue that could splinter the Greens, it would be Shaw's agreed response to climate change.

          Reply
      • Ad 12.1.2
        13 October 2021 at 5:58 pm

        The modus operandi of this government is very difficult to pick on that score.

        On the one hand it can go big such as with nationalising hospitals. On the other hand when it gets lots of public pressure on a specific item like a cycleway it kills the project.

        Most of the time, unless there's an immediate crisis, Ardern only acts when the rest of the country begs her to. It's very awwwwwwwshucks you made me. In those respects Ardern is very similar to her predecessor John Key. Both were outstanding at reforms directly after crises, but day to day just went with the flow.

        The huge rural protest was no issue to them electorally, but the fact that it was big and there was no organised countervailing pro-climate protest will quite reasonably be read that the left and the greens are complacent and Ardern can continue to tack deep into the centre. That's certainly how we will be read by other nations in Glasgow.

        Reply
        • Cricklewood 12.1.2.1
          13 October 2021 at 6:37 pm

          Yes very much a populist, I think thats why Auckland alert level dropped a touch early. Sadly Labour are a short on people who know how to get shit done. I think this manifests itself when big announcements are made like Kiwibuild, light rail, emergency housing etc and the actual delivery falls over or gets tied in knots.

          I honestly believe this is in part due to the emergence of an insular political class who lack in real world experience.

          Reply
  13. DS 13
    13 October 2021 at 5:41 pm

    At this rate, it's going to take a few deaths before the Government sees reason on Level 4 (as for compliance – I'd venture that a few deaths would also make certain people remember what we are fighting against).

    Reply

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