Open mike 13/09/2014

214 comments on “Open mike 13/09/2014 ”

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1. Gruntie 1

   13 September 2014 at 7:14 am

   Time for left voters to vote smarter – strategically using electorate candidate votes – Auck Central, ohariu, Epsom
   Every seat counts
   • Chooky 1.1

     13 September 2014 at 10:01 am

     +100 Gruntie…and this list is a very concise Electorate Vote Guide for those who want a Left coalition WIN ! ( should be printed everywhere imo)

     http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/09/03/the-daily-blog-2014-progressive-voter-guide-who-to-vote-for-to-change-the-government/
   • Pasupial 1.2

     13 September 2014 at 11:53 am

     Gruntee

     I agree with the need for strategic voting in Epsom & Ohariu, but don’t see the real advantage of it in Auckland Central. Kaye is 19th on the Nat list, and Ardern 5th on Labour’s making them both both all but certain to be returned to parliament.

     http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/information-voters-who-when-and-where/2014-general-election-party-lists
     • alwyn 1.2.1

       13 September 2014 at 2:23 pm

       If Labour get a party vote number near the lower end of the current polling, and the Ipredict numbers are anywhere near correct for the electorates it is quite possible for Jacinda Arden to be looking for a new job after 20 September unless she was to win Auckland Central. Labour could end up with only a single List MP.
       Not likely perhaps but certainly well within the bounds of possibility.
       • Pasupial 1.2.1.1

         13 September 2014 at 3:29 pm

         alwyn

         I am very sceptical about polls and especially Ipredict (which I see has Kaye at 92.4%), even more so after the Hagar book. But; unless there is a mass migration of party votes to the GP or IMPs while those party’s electorate votes all go to LP so creating an overhang, even if Ardern misses out that won’t affect the parliamentary math.

         Whereas in Ōhariu and Epsom, a coordinated vote against UF & ACT respectively will remove that party from parliament and lead to their votes being redistributed.

         This is interesting, though should be viewed with caution being the bastard fruit of; Roy Morgan polls, Ipredict & “Qrious” (“…better use of information to provide insights that are actionable”):

         http://www.electionresults.co.nz/split-voting-could-deliver-surprises

         Showing Ōhariu having about quarter of its votes likely to be split between party and candidate. But Epsom only having around a fifth of intended split votes (the chart scale is a bit hard to read, and there is no precise data nor confidence intervals). Fortunately, Clutha-Southland is one of the lowest split-voting electorates, so it doesn’t look like ACT will be getting in through the backdoor.
         • alwyn 1.2.1.1.1

           13 September 2014 at 4:58 pm

           I quite agree that there seems to be no advantage to so-called “strategic” voting in Auckland Central, and indeed almost all of your comment.
           The only thing I was commenting on was the bit where you say
           “Ardern 5th on Labour’s making … all but certain to be returned to parliament”

           I used Ipredict because it is about the only way for someone, other than the National and Labour Organisations, to get any real idea of how the electorates may go. They have 27 where the Labour candidate is the favourite. For Arden to get in off the list Labour need to get 29 seats (allowing for Parker taking number 28) which is about 24.2%. Of the 11 polls published this month the lowest 4 were 23.8%, 24.1%, 24.3% and 24.6%. These would all have her on the cusp. The others were mostly around 26% where she is well home.

           I wasn’t disagreeing with your view on where strategic voting applies. I shall have a look at the referenced material later. I have to go out.
           Incidentally if that is the slogan of Qrious I think I am going to enjoy it.
2. Paul 2

   13 September 2014 at 7:24 am

   Excellent article by Lucy Lawless about child poverty.
   Some highlights.
   “If you don’t want your taxes to help feed poor kids, think again — we’re all already paying a big price.”

   “Last week Nigel Latta’s show on the social cost of sugar consumption showed a surgical team extracting the teeth of a 2-year-old child because the mother had been putting Coca Cola in the baby’s bottle. So we are in equal parts horrified by sugar and the stupidity of the mother. But this kind of ignorance is part and parcel of poverty. It steals care, imagination and patience, which hampers the growing child with a whole constellation of impediments.”

   http://m.nzherald.co.nz/editors-picks/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503539&objectid=11323015
   • Local Kiwi 2.1

     13 September 2014 at 8:45 am

     Capitalism is dead.

     Iit only survives when others are made to pay the benefits of others.

     Scotland is gojng to vote to leave a corrupt capitalistic policy of Westminster.

     There is a case in law where in thye bearly 1900s a rule in USA was made as the blood of the workers is the price of progress.

     This standard was used in a aircrarft comapny dispute in Washigton state in 2002.

     Beginning of the decline of capitalism.
     Scots are very socialistic and this is good, as the Global n clock has turned to rght wing causing a great rift in the gap between the rich and the poor.

     For instance the Tories in Westminister to get inot their second term boosted the Lndon realestate market and inflating a red hot property boom speculation to make the large voting block feel the tories were good for them.

     Key has repeated this here to buy votes in our largest voting block, and dragging 170 000 chinese into the pot so torries are very dangerous for NZ.

     We need to come back to the 1970s where compassion ruled over capital interests
     • Tom Jackson 2.1.1

       13 September 2014 at 9:01 am

       Hardly.

       As I write, hundreds if not thousands of computer programs are busy calculating the odds of a “yes” vote and making investments accordingly at a pace that no human being could hope to keep up with. That’s what capitalism looks like now.

       Whether or not Salmond manages to establish some form of social democracy in an independent Scotland (and I hope he does), those systems will have an immense effect on how much his government is able to fund. They’ll simply incorporate independence into their set of parameters and look once more to see how much they can screw us out of.
       • phillip ure 2.1.1.1

         13 September 2014 at 9:20 am

         if scotland does hive off..

         ..cameron will go into the history books as cameron-the-loser..

         ..he lost scotland..

         ..and milliband will be gutted..

         ..as britain will then be tory forever..
         • Tom Jackson 2.1.1.1.1

           13 September 2014 at 9:26 am

           If I were Scottish, I would vote “yes”.
           • ScottGN 2.1.1.1.1.1

             13 September 2014 at 9:46 am

             Me too.
             • phillip ure …

               13 September 2014 at 9:50 am

               for selfish reasons i want a yes vote..

               ..as..going on shout-outs to the diaspora.. i will likely gain a european citizenship option..
               • lurgee …

                 13 September 2014 at 4:30 pm

                 I would be happy but very surprised if Scotland voted for independence. My countrymen and women are canny, cautious folk and would rather just change things a wee bit rather than a wholesale transformation. Enhanced devolution would have won comfortably, which is why the feart Tories did not offer it as an option, but are now panicked into offering it up regardless of whether those voting ‘no’ actually want it …

                 Incidentally, the suggestion that Scotland is some sort of socialist paradise is misleading. As recently as 1955, the Scottish Unionists were able to win an outright majority of the vote (by a whisker). Obviously, things have changed and the Conservatives can only muster a single Scottish seat at Westminster; but Scotland is more characterised as anti-Conservative than actually socialist.
                 • phillip ure …

                   13 September 2014 at 6:08 pm

                   i dunno lurgee..

                   ..one of salmonds main planks for change is ‘a fairer society’..

                   ..and a country so resolutely labour must move in that direction..

                   ..you’d think..?
           • mickysavage 2.1.1.1.1.2

             13 September 2014 at 7:17 pm

             If I were Scottish, I would vote “yes”.

             Me too. Bugger the repercussions!
             • greywarbler …

               13 September 2014 at 7:34 pm

               What happens about money then. Can they keep on using British money and circulate it within Scotland but the Brits won’t integrate it within their system?
               Will they use Euros for cross-border transactions? Perhaps they will strike a bawbee representing a Scottish dollar.
     • Sans Cle 2.1.2

       13 September 2014 at 9:23 am

       I like your enthusiasm Local Kiwi!

       I read this article recently, from Australia, that is similar to what has happened here. It’s a bit depressing, says that politics is now “consumed”…..there has been a change from being a voter to consumer (e.g. of Brand Key). Does place the whole dirty politics saga into a “political marketing” perspective. (smarmy term I know, and pure spin…….but also a way to express what we are in the middle of).
       http://theconversation.com/democracy-is-dead-long-live-political-marketing-2666
   • Clemgeopin 2.2

     13 September 2014 at 9:39 am

     I watched Lucy Lawless on Back Benches being interviewed. I was not impressed with her answers at all. Take a look here to see what I mean:
     http://www.primetv.co.nz/Default.aspx?tabid=93&art_id=8359
     • Rlch 2.2.1

       13 September 2014 at 10:59 am

       That’s an hour long, can you give some clues to where she is?
       • Clemgeopin 2.2.1.1

         13 September 2014 at 2:21 pm

         No, sorry, I can’t unless I watch it all over again. I don’t think you can do forwarding on that video for some reason! I couldn’t! I watched it live on Wednesday. Lucy Lawless was less than impressive for me. I had better impression of her before that programme.
   • Local Kiwi 2.3

     13 September 2014 at 9:41 am

     Heres our reflection on why

     Scots are very socialistic and this is good, as the Global n clock has turned to rght wing causing a great rift in the gap between the rich and the poor.

     For instance the Tories in Westminister to get inot their second term boosted the Lndon realestate market and inflating a red hot property boom speculation to make the large voting block feel the tories were good for them.

     Key has repeated this here to buy votes in our largest voting block, and dragging 170 000 chinese into the pot so torries are very dangerous for NZ.

     We need to come back to the 1970s where compassion ruled over capital interests
3. North 3

   13 September 2014 at 7:55 am

   Indebted we are to the NZ Herald for its reminder of what a happy little people we are in the leadup to next weekend’s coronation !

   We have a king and we have a prince and the selfie and the walkabout.

   There is ‘high charm’ and the king/prince gets ‘mobbed’ by the ‘feverish crowd’. Helpers ‘chirp’ and a selfie subject ‘quips’ and the king/prince says “gidday, how are you ?”

   “It’s not always about the money” notes the king/prince – adding that he wasn’t ruling out a ‘break’ for the rich. All the while the king/prince shows ‘ease’ – he is ‘guileless’ – ‘rotten-ethics’ are far far away.

   “Awwwh…….how beautiful !” scribbles the beaming Herald reporter as he jumps in his little Noddy car and off to his gingerbread house.

   http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11323732
   • Paul 3.1

     13 September 2014 at 8:15 am

     Compromised media
   • Sans Cle 3.2

     13 September 2014 at 9:41 am

     I am so sick of the Herald, and media.
     Does anyone know how many (so called) journalists have immediate family members as MPs in NZ?
     How many of these so called journalists are from National?
     How many of these so called journslists are from Labour?
     How many of these so called journalists are from any other political party?

     The Herald *broke* the story about Slater vs Blomfield yesterday evening, BELOW a non story, with a BIGGER picture of Len Brown. No content to story, but just to remind readers that Len Brown had an affair. I mean please…..news or history book?
4. phillip ure 4

   13 September 2014 at 8:05 am

   “..Why We Need Vegans Now More Than Ever..

   Veganism confronts the most pressing issues of our time:

   – corporate power – destruction of the planet –

   – and the ethics of violence..”

   (cont..)

   http://www.alternet.org/food/why-we-need-vegans-now-more-ever
5. Scott1 5

   13 September 2014 at 8:26 am

   Why is it that we have to exempt the family home from capital gains tax. I have a family home and I don’t mind paying a portion of my capital gains (on sale where lawyers are already involved).

   Then we can have a bit more money to pay for those that can’t afford a home and to avoid creating a massive loophole that every rich person with an expensive accountant will waltz through.

   If the electorate is intelligent it could be easily sold as offsetting some income tax in the key areas that one might be worried about.

   But Labour has to write a 30 page document to ensure us somewhat rich people can stay in the club with the very rich ones and avoid paying tax.
   • Tom Jackson 5.1

     13 September 2014 at 9:03 am

     Because it would make changing houses much more expensive for regular families, who don’t use houses as a source of profit, but as machines for living in.
     • Scott1 5.1.1

       13 September 2014 at 9:37 am

       Yes I suppose it discourages mobility between houses for the richer half of us*. But tax always has that sort of a disincentive effect. It also gives us money back in our income that should offset that for most people who don’t own multiple properties.

       I would see it as paying what would effectively be an increased level of “rates” and in exchange getting a lower income tax.

       Maybe the issue is that effectively the people would be paying the tax in a lump sum when moving houses as opposed to spread out, like the income tax break that offsets it would be?

       If so one could work out a method of spreading it out – I do however see that might be harder to sell.

       * I say this as an Aucklander. Here – if you have a property you probably have several hundred thousand in equity in it. Far more than any of your renting friend’s total assets.
     • Bill 5.1.2

       13 September 2014 at 9:39 am

       If every house attracted a CGT upon sale, there would be no perceived extra expense for people selling their home. Everyone would essentially be in the same boat – much like a is now.

       But with no CGT, there is a slight financial or market advantage conferred upon people wishing to change home.
       • adam 5.1.2.1

         13 September 2014 at 11:50 am

         Why is it do right wing nut jobs always moan about tax? There is this silly argument it should be fairer, but when ever they say fair, the mean the rich should pay less tax.

         For the record to any neo-liberals out there – you economics failed at the end of the 19th century and your second bite at the apple, has really proven you’re lacking in ideas, smarts, or indeed the basic skills in running an economy.
     • alwyn 5.1.3

       13 September 2014 at 2:28 pm

       Add the main reason.
       “It would cost us the vote of 98% of all the New Zealand voters who own their own home and we would never be in Government again”.
   • Sans Cle 5.2

     13 September 2014 at 9:57 am

     I agree! I just don’t get why people moan about taxes, but are happy (well, compelled and just do pay) to pay fixed costs such as conveyancing fees and estate agent fees on the sale of a property.
     People pay these other fixed costs because they have to, but where there is room to negotiate/lobby we fight tooth and nail against a capital gains tax.
     *****bright idea: let’s nationalize estate agents!!!!!*******

     I don’t particularly think that the fees that estate agents receive are commensurate to the marketing they do. I dont think they are fair. But do we see the populace up in arms?
     There are so many other anomalies with our attitude toward taxes – fighting against raises in local council rates, but have larger amounts of tax taken out on our income, when local taxes are way more transparent and give local services that we can use (Mangawhai etc examples excluded of course).
6. brian 6

   13 September 2014 at 8:29 am

   Dirty tricks time.

   Audrey Young with the beatup about Greens “courting” National, where in reality Greens have not changed their position about working with National in several years. History shows that Labour “works” with National too, when the two parties happen to agree!

   Prominence to Craig as well from Herald. Deliberate? I’m sure it would suit National very well to have the Conservatives in, no matter how loopy they are. The party is not making any demands on National, and would allow National to effectively govern alone.

   Expect more attacks on Greens, and encouragement of Conservatives in the final days of the campaign
   • Paul 6.1

     13 September 2014 at 8:46 am

     This is the best article I have read about our corrupt media and their role in the support of Key’s government

     This is is how it starts.

     “Here we sit just a week out from an election. It’s a week in which you face a stark choice. Three more years of smile and wave dirty politics or a new direction

     It’s important to remember that, despite how awesome you think John Key may be, he is a liar. He has spent the last six years creating and maintaining a network of bloggers and public relations people whose job was to manipulate the media and the general public to believing what he wants them to believe. All the time Key has managed this negative network he has maintained his smile & wave public persona..”

     http://boonman.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/a-manufactured-consent/
     • Local Kiwi 6.1.1

       13 September 2014 at 9:25 am

       Questions must be asked here

       While John Key as PM secretly attends a Nazi founded Global Elite corporate power control secret society 2011-12 without telling us all.
       The bilderberg Group seeks to totallly control the world with their global Government.

       He is a very dangerous individual by no coming clean and explian why he attended the Bilderberg group and that he maliciously conspired once before to undermine our currency and economy in 1987 when Lange took power again.

       Key partnered NY mst aggressive currency Forex trader Andy Kieger to make big millions on underminig our country.

       Now he runs this country so if the MSM dont care we should be worried.
       • lurgee 6.1.1.1

         13 September 2014 at 9:44 am

         While John Key as PM secretly attends a Nazi founded Global Elite corporate power control secret society 2011-12 without telling us all.
         The bilderberg Group seeks to totallly control the world with their global Government.

         Can you substantiate this grotesque madness?

         The Bilderberg Group was founded by Joseph Retinger, who was part of the Polish Government in Exile in WW2, and who even parachuted into Poland late in the war to organise the resistance to the Nazis.

         You might not like their ideas but =/= Nazis, expect in the demented world of the paranoid, conspiratorialist and insane.

         If you are going to start howling “Nazi” at people, you’d better be able to prove it. Otherwise, piss off with your crazed diatribes. You’re only a whisker away from “The JOOOOOOOWZ control the whole world.”

         I won’t even bother with the claim about what Bilderberg’s goals are.
         • Local Kiwi 6.1.1.1.1

           13 September 2014 at 10:18 am

           Lurgee

           You have your facts wrong and spin set by the global elite.

           Fact, The Nazi hieracy constructed the blueprint for this sercet society, and carried it forward in 1943.

           This was in place so if Germany lost the war they were thereb to revive Nazi idology so dont believe you are right because a pole staightened the world out.

           (Queen Beatrix Holland royality) family connect to Nazi Party has been head for many years.

           Why was Key there and didnt tell the country why so yoou may be happy with secret societies as bilderberg is but we all know better so we call your assesstions bunk.
           • lurgee 6.1.1.1.1.1

             13 September 2014 at 10:31 am

             Can you prove a semi-credible source to back up your ASTOUNDING CLAIMS?

             Or have they all been ‘censored’ by the Nazi-Lizards?
             • Draco T Bastard …

               13 September 2014 at 1:19 pm

               http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group

               1954 rather than 1943 and it was organised by Retinger to stop anti-Americanism. After reading up on Retinger I’d say that his is not to be trusted. Not because he was dishonest but because seems to have become a US sycophant.

               IMO, there’s no reason for the Bilderberg Group to continue to exist if there was any reason at all.
     • Bill 6.1.2

       13 September 2014 at 9:43 am

       Thanks for linking to a concise and excellent read Paul.
       • Paul 6.1.2.1

         13 September 2014 at 9:48 am

         Reckon the post is worth a thread of its own ( L Prent ?) as the issues covered are so fundamental, so succinctly expressed and, most importantly, targeted to soft National voters who still believe in the cult of Key.
         We should all share this article with all our contacts.
         • Bill 6.1.2.1.1

           13 September 2014 at 9:59 am

           I agree, but I guess Lyn would have to get permission from whoever wrote it. Maybe if you emailed both of them and tried to get the ball rolling?
         • lprent 6.1.2.1.2

           13 September 2014 at 10:23 am

           I’ll ask.
           • Rich 6.1.2.1.2.1

             13 September 2014 at 11:32 am

             I’m just wondering why some of my comments are disappearing today, is there some active moderation going on? If so I would have thought that there were more deserving comments on the blog for deletion than mine.
             • weka …

               13 September 2014 at 11:39 am

               comments don’t usually get removed without an author making a visible note. I would in the first instance assume a bug rather than active moderation.

               Do you mean disappearing, or not appearing?

               if the latter, sometimes comments drop randomly into the spam or moderation. Nothing to do with active moderation or the commenter or the content.
               • Rich …

                 13 September 2014 at 11:44 am

                 I sometimes get this coming up under website ‘http://deleted’.

                 But no, some of my comments are going up and then later disappearing. If it’s a bug, it’s a peculiar one.
                 • lprent …

                   13 September 2014 at 1:38 pm

                   Fixed that bug (??) last week. It was happening to anyone who had a URL in their header (like http://deleted).

                   Turned out that there was a difference between
                   // text
                   and
                   //text

                   In the auto-moderation list. There was no apparent reason why
             • karol …

               13 September 2014 at 11:46 am

               Rich, 3 of your comments are sitting waiting for moderation – best I leave it for Lynn to sort out, so he can see what’s happening, and maybe sort out any bug.

               I can’t see any reason why they’ve gone into moderation.

               [lprent: I couldn’t see a reason. Released and I’ll see if any others do. ]
               • Rich …

                 13 September 2014 at 11:47 am

                 ok thanks Karol.
     • Chooky 6.1.3

       13 September 2014 at 11:36 pm

       +100 Paul @6.1…and good link to boonman
   • rich the other 6.2

     13 September 2014 at 8:49 am

     Dirty Tricks , I like the title
     The greens abandoning labour must take the cake , any prospect of these two working in harmony together, in an atmosphere of TRUST has gone out the window .
     Remember just last week labour / greens ,”National ” , the party of dirty tricks , today the greens , ” we have worked with them in the past and can do so in the future “.
     Labour has been left high and dry .
     • Local Kiwi 6.2.1

       13 September 2014 at 9:40 am

       Rich the other.

       Picking or trolling are you.

       The media attack of diry politics sent this filth and you are parroting them so who pays you to parrot. Troll somewhere else and ask key why he faileed to tell us he is rubbing shoulders with a Nazi based Group Bilderberg while you bare pocking around.
     • Rodel 6.2.2

       13 September 2014 at 3:15 pm

       Rich t’other
       ‘take the cake’….’gone out the window’..’working in harmony’..’high and dry..’

       Anymore Crosby Textor meaningless cliches you can string together to try to upset the applecart or put cats among the pigeons?

       Oh for some reasoned debate!
   • Clemgeopin 6.3

     13 September 2014 at 10:06 am

     “Greens have not changed their position about working with National in several years”

     That is not the point. The point is the TIMING of the announcement 8 days before the election indirectly talking up the Nats and on the day their poll rating fell significantly. Remember also that hundreds of thousands have already voted early and with the push for early voting given by the Green machine, most of those votes would probably have gone to the Greens already and I suspect many of those green voters would be ex Labour people. This move by the Greens has harmed Labour and put soured the left progressive movement.
     Luckily Cunliffe and the Labour leadership have been remarkably patient and wise.
     • Paul 6.3.1

       13 September 2014 at 10:32 am

       Do you really believe this?
       Have you read Hager’s book?
       • Clemgeopin 6.3.1.1

         13 September 2014 at 12:31 pm

         Affirmative to both of your questions.
         And you did not address any of the points I made in my comment.
     • phillip ure 6.3.2

       13 September 2014 at 10:45 am

       norman has said he has flushed out key..

       ..showing those national party voters who care about child-poverty..(and not all national party voters are uncaring about poverty..and the environment..)..

       ..that those voters can now see that key will do nothing for the environment..

       ..and that key has refused to take part in a cross-party grouping to end child-poverty..

       ..shows those national party voters who care..

       ..that key will also do nothing to end child-poverty..

       ..and that the greens are a safe alternative-vote for them..

       ..and good pre-positioning b4 the greenwald revelations..

       ..you’d think..?
     • anker 6.3.3

       13 September 2014 at 1:32 pm

       100+ Clemgeopin
7. Scott1 7

   13 September 2014 at 8:40 am

   Attacks on the green are presumably to scare voters who might vote Labour into voting NZ first or National. They are quite likely to help the Greens vs Labour so help the Greens overall.

   Supporting the Conservatives on the other hand will be a much simpler equation although most of the soft conservative vote has already gone because if you add NZfirst and Conservatives together they are probably looking at 13% maybe more.

   Regardless the Conservatives have a decent chance of making it in on current numbers. This is because like NZfirst, I suspect they will over perform. For one thing – many will be embarrassed to say they support conservatives in a poll that may be even more pronounced than with NZfirst.
8. Wht NEXT 8

   13 September 2014 at 9:55 am

   Key : DOING WHAT HE HAS TO DO TO PROTECT NZERS
   Get a you know what up ya

   The arrogance of the prick its the fault of people in his industry that we are in a position of having a social welfare system anway
   Every since I can remember shit like him have freeloaded off the workers
   They have had the arrogance to say you work for me and Ill have the right to pay you what I please its my money
   YEAH RIGHT
   People who live off the production of a country but actually dont produce anything of value financiers benificiaries junk merchants that prey on societies weaknesses
   Geat real The finance system is what is wrong
   • Draco T Bastard 8.1

     13 September 2014 at 1:24 pm

     People who live off the production of a country but actually dont produce anything of value financiers benificiaries junk merchants that prey on societies weaknesses

     Yep, the biggest bludgers in history are the rich who live on income produced by others.
9. Local Kiwi 9

   13 September 2014 at 9:59 am

   Sorry Scott, Dont agree with you, as most have now seen Conservatives turn right and lay off keys policies. People are brighter than your appear to beieve.

   Best you learn about the Global corporate Manipulation of the polls to learn the 1.4million sites confirming poll corruption globally go to Can polls be manipulated. on goggle. dont waste our time with these assertions the polls are correct.
   • Scott1 9.1

     13 September 2014 at 11:23 am

     Local Kiwi,
     Don’t agree if you want.
     But I do know about polls. I usually guess the result of elections globally and my record at those guesses is very good.
     • Local Kiwi 9.1.1

       13 September 2014 at 9:09 pm

       Scott1

       you don’t know what we know unless you are a group of folks who have been called by the pollsters and after going through the phone interview after agreeing if we can have the “supervisor listen in as well! then after confirming in all our cases so far that the age was acceptable along with basic questions we went into a series of ten questions and three parts though they just broke off the poll and hung-up.

       We have complained about the pollsters and spoken to other pooling companies that are known to be more accurate band they said we have not been polled correctly.

       So we know more about the real pollsters unlike you, so read the sites please and learn!
10. phillip ure 10

    13 September 2014 at 10:01 am

    cunnliffe just confirmed labour will do nothing for the childless-poor..

    ..when asked if he will raise benefit-levels..

    ..cunnliffe said they will raise at inflation levels..the same as key/national do..

    ..but that ‘the financial-surplus’ is the more important for labour..

    ..so the childless-poor are the forgotten/the outsiders/the ignored..for this election..(as children in poverty were so studiously ignored in 2011..)

    ..and this by yet another labour govt..?

    ..fuck them..!..

    ..vote for the parties that have universal basic income policies..

    ..internet/mana..and the greens..

    ..i mean..even the fucken conservatives have a policy (first twenty grand tax-free) that will help the childless-poor more than labour would..(!)

    ..w.t.f..!
    • Paul 10.1

      13 September 2014 at 10:11 am

      So vote Green or Mana
      • phillip ure 10.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 10:21 am

        i am just disgusted that labour seem to have learnt nothing from the mistakes/’wrongs’ of their last time in govt..

        ..they still just don’t fucken care…

        ..and will leave large numbers of new zealanders living in grinding poverty..

        .as i said..fuck them..!
        • Rich 10.1.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 11:10 am

          I would say first thing would be to get the representative of ‘capital looking for a manipulated good return’ out of office first and then work on Labour’s chronic lack of attention to the poor over the last 40 or so years.
    • Scott1 10.2

      13 September 2014 at 11:36 am

      National has a policy of not having any policy.
      I was listening to the radio when they asked Bill English what his new idea was for the next term to help the country. His answer, aside from dodging the question, was basically – “we don’t need new ideas”.
11. Draco T Bastard 11

    13 September 2014 at 10:20 am

    Family capitalism’s insidious return: How billionaires are undermining America

    Olympian entrepreneurs like Greene regularly end up seeing themselves as tycoons-cum-savants. When they run for office, they do so as if they were trying to get elected to the board of directors of America, Inc. Some will brook no interference with their will. Property, lots of it, in a society given over to its worship, becomes a blank check: everything is permitted to those who have it.

    Which we see regularly from National MPs and their supporters seem to see them the same way.
    • greywarbler 11.1

      13 September 2014 at 10:39 am

      I was interested to hear that Boris Johnston in London is up for an MP, even PM status, against some Olympian sportsperson. As if being able to control and conquer ones own body to reach an individual physical goal with the mental being totally self-oriented and single-outcome focussed, fits you for a life of interaction with others.

      It does not automatically make you excellent at helping to run things for the community, making the right things happen and actually understanding and responding to what the community needs and wants. Also how to spread finances fairly in a balanced way.

      Probably neither Boris Johnston nor the other are really good at it. But Boris has had some practice. It seems often that sportspeople are individualistic, right-wing in their approach. They are basically entrepreneurs, working as a sole trader with their own lives and doings, seem to have a permanent narrow focus, and only respect other similarly obssessed types.

      Not forgetting Sir Edmund Hillary. But sometimes it is easier to assist those obviously in need in another country. When at home the tail of society becomes an object of derision, just backside wool that a shearer wants to clear from dirtying the major and valuable fleece.
      • Rlch 11.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:06 am

        Excellent comment, got me thinking a little more on an icon.

        As for Johnston, he’s a right wing populist. I’m not sure why capital is still dealing with guys like that, but I guess they go on more recent Chilean examples rather than earlier European ones.
      • Rich 11.1.2

        13 September 2014 at 11:26 am

        I seem to have had my first post deleted for mentioning capital and its attraction to right wing populists. Interesting point regarding Hillary, has got me thinking.
        • greywarbler 11.1.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 11:37 am

          Rich 11.26
          Hi I don’t think your comment would have been deleted here. If you do a search of your stuff you might find it has turned up in further down than where you expected.
          • Rich 11.1.2.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 11:41 am

            Yes I’ve looked warbler. No they’re definitely disappearing today, I had one go on the ‘Working Poor’ as well, there were only 3 comments there one of them from me suggesting that poverty was policy. That one’s gone.
12. phillip ure 12

    13 September 2014 at 10:34 am

    glenn greenwald said the gcsb are engaged in mass-surveillance of nz’ers..

    ..and that they/we also spy on friendly nations..for the americans..

    ..oh.well..!..that’s the seat on the un security council flushed down the loo..

    ..eh..?
    • karol 12.1

      13 September 2014 at 10:38 am

      Audrey Young, August 20, 2013:

      Prime Minister John Key says he and the head of GCSB would resign if the spy agency were found to have conducted mass surveillance.

      He made the comment to reporters at Parliament in the light of assurances that the changes to the GCSB Act 2003 would not mean mass surveillance of New Zealanders.
      […]
      For that to happen, the GCSB would have to undertake illegal activity.

      He clarified later saying “both” would resign if there was mass surveillance.

      “If I wholesale blatantly flout the law as Prime Minister I’m never going to survive anyway.”
      • greywarbler 12.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 10:46 am

        Good sound bite for the moment from Donkey. The next moment there would be a different situation. We have to understand these are fast moving times and we have to adjust, be flexible or pass away. Possibly under a bulldozer as in Israel and China and sundry other places.
    • greywarbler 12.2

      13 September 2014 at 10:43 am

      phip ure
      I’m notingthat I understood your points in the previous comment well. And have adjusted to your prose style over a period of orientation! Just not too long please.
      What about breaking a long one into paragraphs with central themes. You come out with good stuff so help us with readability.
13. anker 13

    13 September 2014 at 10:43 am

    Did I hear this right??? Russell Norman saying “we have been the opposition this time” Not a direct quote…………………..what is this about???? So Grant Robertson did nothing re Judith Collins and Oravida????? Chris Hipkins versus Hekia and I can name many more.

    As a Labour person, I have always been supportive of the Greens, but I am starting to get a bit sick of this. By all means challenge National (and I would much rather Norman had of said there is not way we want anything to do with National).
    • karol 13.1

      13 September 2014 at 10:46 am

      There are quite a few people have commented in the past that The Greens were the more effective opposition party – that was particularly said during Shearer’s time as leader. Cunliffe has pulled it back quite a bit since he took over leadership.
      • phillip ure 13.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:09 am

        i saw it lose focus after harre left..
    • karol 13.2

      13 September 2014 at 10:53 am

      I also think it’s about the Greens feeling they’ve been under-rated, and maybe been taken for granted a bit much by others, including Labour.

      I think the Greens are staking their claim for a strong role in a Labour-Green government. Also, interesting that Cunliffe would not rule out Metiria & Norman as deputy PMs on The Nation today.

      It’s about jockeying for position.
      • anker 13.2.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:11 am

        Thanks Karol. I always appreciate your very even handed approach.

        As a Labour voter who rejected Rogernomics, I cameback to Labour because of Cunliffe.
        I think he has run a great campaign. Being very clear about who he will and won’t work with.

        10 Reasons to vote Cunliffe (Labour)
        1 He has experience in govt and as a Cabinet Minister (and was very effective).
        2 He speaks Te Reo
        3 He has a business background (this is important for NZ to create good jobs)
        4 He admits mistakes and repairs them.
        5 He apologized to the woman’s refuge for being a man
        6 He has background as a diplomat
        7 He promoted his caucus based on merit and didn’t appear to hold grudges (e.g. Annette King), nor did he make Shane or Grant deputy, he chose who he thought was best.
        8. He withstood a lot of crap from his own party (Shearer demoting him, sucked it up and got on with being an effective spokeperson for fisheries).
        9. He imo has developed the most comprehensive and costed out set of policies (and the really important bit about this is they take Labour back to their roots, inreasing wages, workers rights, Best start (family benefit), Kiwibuild (that’s just a few).
        10. He has withstood extremely negative publicity through MSM including smears such as the Dong Liu letter, whale oi, Armstrong “reign!” etc, etec, etc.

        Actually there are probably another ten reasons to vote Cunliffe. I may post again!

        I wish all parties on the left all the best on 20th Sept. I am very glad they will be lead if successful by DC!
        7
        • karol 13.2.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 11:19 am

          I think DC will be an excellent PM. I gave my electorate vote to him in the last few elections. I will give Carmel Sepuloni my electorate vote this election, plus will party vote Green.

          I still think Labour needs the Greens influence to keep them on track on poverty, etc. Labour still has a way to go before I will vote for them again.

          I have noticed (via tweets from Green people during leader debates) that The Greens were putting the case that they should have been in the leader debates with Key & Cunliffe. I can see their point as any change of government will be a Labour-Green one.

          I think they are just putting the case for them to be given more visibility in the election as part of any possible change in government.

          It’s a jockeying for position, that I don’t think should be exaggerated as some fragmentation of the left block.

          We, the foot soldiers and followers, need to stick together.
          • Ad 13.2.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 11:35 am

            I agree Labour needs the Greens’ influence – although I think Labour needs them more for their environmental and conservation strength.

            Disagree about “they should have been in the leadership debates”.
            – Norman isn’t going to be PM. This was about who would be PM.
            – If as I suspect NZFirst gets 9%, Peters could expect to be in the “leadership” debate as well. Too messy.
            • weka 13.2.1.1.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 1:37 pm

              ” – Norman isn’t going to be PM. This was about who would be PM.”

              I probably don’t care too much whether Norman/Turei were included or not, but I don’t agree that the debates should be about who is PM. Fuck the glorification of the leader. This should be about policy and team work, and the leaders of parties, not the leader of NZ.
        • Chooky 13.2.1.2

          13 September 2014 at 12:42 pm

          +100 anker 13.2.1…the Left Coalition must remain staunch!…Cunliffe will be a great leader of the Left coalition !.

          After working for the Greens campaign and donating to the Greens ( and hopefully getting votes for the Greens) …I am seriously considering giving my Party vote to Internet MANA…mainly because of Laila Harre , who I admire enormously…(but also Hone Harawira , Annette Sykes and John Minto…and Int MANA policies …also Kim Dotcom, now a New Zealander imo , fighting corruption)..my Electorate vote goes to the Labour candidate who is exceptionally good

          …We live in crucial times for New Zealand and the Internet MANA party is leading the charge 1.) against John Key, Nact corruption, sell out to overseas big business and an Orwellian surveillance state… and 2.) for defending Democracy for New Zealand ….and for New Zealanders to keep control of their own country….

          i know numbers of people on the Left who are having trouble deciding which party to Party vote for….but any vote for Labour, Greens , Internet Mana….and even Wini NZF….is a good vote imo.

          We MUST ALL VOTE!…and encourage everyone we know to VOTE!
          • weka 13.2.1.2.1

            13 September 2014 at 1:35 pm

            NZF isn’t a vote to change the govt. It’s a vote to give Peters a choice on which govt we have.

            There a pros and cons for each of the 3 leftwing parties. Bear in mind that if the GP get too few MPs, we will have a centrist govt not a left wing one, irrespective of how many MPs IMP get (IMP will not be part of govt). The closer the numbers between NZF and the GP, the less influence the GP will have.

            NZF have said they won’t work with IMP, so the question becomes whether a L/GP/NZF coalition will allow the IMP much power or whether it reject them and thus build antagonism over the first term (due to Peters).

            I’ve been very tempted to vote for the IMP, because they’re doing great things, and because of Harre, and because we need more progressive voices that will actively work for change in parliament. I’d love to see Miriam Pierard as an MP. But I also think there is a real danger here that IMP votes at the expense of the GP will leave the GP with too little oopmph in the actual govt, and that’s where we need it most this time round. There is a real opportunity at this election to not just get a left wing govt, but get one that is more left wing than centrist. That will only happen with a strong GP presence.
          • Clemgeopin 13.2.1.2.2

            13 September 2014 at 2:13 pm

            @Chooky: I agree. I would happily vote for Internet-Mana, except that I want to have a strong Labour presence in the next government for long term survival of the coalition and they now need every party vote they can get as the polls indicate.
            NZF is also a good option for those wavering, for various reasons from quite a different point of view.
          • kenny 13.2.1.2.3

            13 September 2014 at 5:57 pm

            I know where you are coming from Chooky. I have been impressed by InternetMana from the moment they unveiled Laila Harre as Internet Party leader. They are bringing some excitement back into politics and I think a lot of young, first-time voters will go with them.

            I think their vote will surprise a lot of people. I can see them getting more votes than the Conservatives. I can also see a fair number of National supporters abstaining this time.

            Like you say, one week to go so lets get in behind for a final effort to rid NZ of this corrupt government.

            VOTE LEFT!
        • Clemgeopin 13.2.1.3

          13 September 2014 at 2:04 pm

          Well said anker. Cunliffe will be a good leader and Labour policies are very well thought out. Hopefully his coalition parties will have the wisdom and common sense to give him full support so that such a progressive coalition government will earn the respect and trust of the people and be able to last not for just one term, but at least three, if not more.
    • Anne 13.3

      13 September 2014 at 11:07 am

      Yes anker you did hear right and I found his comment disappointing and offensive for the same reasons. No acknowledgement of any kind from Russell Norman that Labour have been under three years of sustained attack by the Nats black ops. brigade run out of the PM’s Office – and being supported and exacerbated by the MSM – including as we now know the Donghua Liu affair. No acknowledgement of the enormous amount of work Labour has put into developing excellent policy. I’m afraid on a scale of 1 to 10, Norman has dropped form 8 down to 5 in my book directly as a result of that remark.
      • anker 13.3.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:13 am

        Anne 100+
      • weka 13.3.2

        13 September 2014 at 11:27 am

        what were you listening to?
        • karol 13.3.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 11:40 am

          Interview with Norman on TV3’s The Nation this morning.
        • Clemgeopin 13.3.2.2

          13 September 2014 at 2:43 pm

          Here are the interviews on the Nation this morning of Key and Cunliffe [and others]

          http://www.3news.co.nz/TVShows/TheNation
    • phillip ure 13.4

      13 September 2014 at 11:07 am

      @ anker..

      ..as someone who has done commentaries on/watched most questiontimes for far too long..

      ..i can confirm that the greens have in the main been a more effective opposition-party..

      ..and have looked at goff/shearer..tjen cunnliffe in that labour role..over the last three years..

      ..and who is the labour spokesperson on transport..?..i dunno..

      ..the greens’ genter owns that portfolio..(as just one example..)

      ..and norman/turei have been far more effective at a constant holding the govt to account..

      ..than were goff/shearer/cunliffe..

      ..so that is quite a reasonable claim for norman to make..
      • anker 13.4.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:22 am

        Phill, I appreciate your opinion. You may well be correct about transport etc. But Labour have been working hard and effectively in opposition too especially since Cunliffe.

        But don’t forget Grant and Oravida and Cunliffe challenges Key on child poverty, which of course the msm reported as Key saying Cunliffe lives in a rich house as well after Cunliffe had said Key needs to get out from the leafy suburbs.

        However Normans comments were unhelpful, and I am not impressed with him dissing Labour in this way. NOT O.K.

        Cunliffe and Labour have been the target of the smear campaign as well documented on this site and in dirty politics. No other person in parliament or party has been exposed to this level of inteference as Cunliffe/Labour.

        And now for my little moan. Gordon Campbell is an excellent journalist, but consistently disses Labour and Cunliffe. As bad as the msm. He list of reasons to vote for a progressive govt is all well and good, but wtf did he do what all the other msm did and go on about Cunliffe not knowing the full detail on CGT???????? Its a detail Gordon. Party of Key’s dirty tricks and you brought into it. Shame on you.
        • Sans Cle 13.4.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 11:11 pm

          I agree Anker – I am Green moving more and more toward Labour, given the dirty Politiking against Cunliffe. He has had the life sucked out of him through various attacks. Not sure, but Armstrong’s stirrings this week were the first attempt to derail Green’s campaign?; and only because the Nats see them now as a credible threat. I also think that labour needs a considerable shift given recent polls (despite being corrupt/biased/bought polls).

          Dramatically increasing Labours actual poll vis-a-vis the polls would also be sending a clear message to Key (middle finger raised), that we are sick to the teeth of dirty Politiking.
          I also think that there is so much more freedom of democratic expression on the left, with all the parties. Cunliffe’s three way pledge this week was expedient to try to gain ground in that swinging right-central vote, but at what cost? IMP – Harre in particular is fabulous, getting more left and youth votes out into the polling booths on the 20th Sept. It’s a bit disengenuous to those voters (when considered within a left bloc) to be excluded. Also, not so good to factionalise the left, despite all our differences in opinion…..we need to bury ideological hatchets and get on with the job at hand.
          I for one, want nothing more than a change in this Government; and want representation for people, not money and capital.
          …..but keep calm and vote left.
          • McFlock 13.4.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 11:47 pm

            keep calm and vote left.

            there’s the thing

            The bastards are on the ropes, so they’re trying to increase the non-vote. They think labour’s sorted to <30%, so now they're chipping at the greens, and come tuesday morning it'll be IMP. But national are polling in the mid-40s, and they still have no friends – at best they have winston, who might switch both ways.

            Their objective is to stop voters having a bearing, and that’s a LOSER’S mentality. From now on they crumble. But only if we act, only if the people vote.

            Fuck the narrative, to hell with the spin, and screw the self-deluded Venal Right Wing Conspiracy. We’re way out of the gates now, it’s coming to the home stretch. Damn them all and vote left. Because the Left vote is the only vote that’s worth the paper it’s ticked on.
            • Chooky 13.4.1.1.1.1

              14 September 2014 at 8:09 am

              +100 McFlock….and Winnie if he ever went with NACTIONAL after all that has gone on in the last couple of years and all he has said ….all his brilliant speeches against John Key in parliament …..would be damned for ever by just about everyone in this country!

              ….I doubt whether Winnie wants to spend the later half of his life this way…He wants to be remembered as a HERO for DEMOCRACY and a HERO for New Zealand for New Zealanders taking back their own country.

              John Key and Nactional are DONE like a dog’s dinner!
              • tinfoilhat …

                14 September 2014 at 7:07 pm

                If Winston has the balance of power… and it’s a big if, he will go with whoever offers him the best baubles.

                I suspect he would very much like the Speaker’s position followed with a promise of Ambassador sitting in London or Washington.

                Either way this is his last term and his party will then pass away quietly.
      • Ergo Robertina 13.4.2

        13 September 2014 at 12:00 pm

        Anyone who watches Question Time knows the Greens hold the Government to account, while Labour only wakes up every so often.
        However, I am tired of Norman’s ongoing petulance fit just days from an election.
        Yes Labour has problems, but it has enough critics without Norman.
        Norman should not have been nonchalantly talking about an MOU with National, or about Labour’s shortcomings. He should be as focused as Metiria Turei is in getting rid of this delinquent regime.
        • Clemgeopin 13.4.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 2:56 pm

          Both the Doctors, Norman and Whyte, during this election seem quite sickly suffering from their own nauseating diatribe harmful for coalition health and well being. A long rest is recommended.
    • weka 13.5

      13 September 2014 at 11:17 am

      Anker, can you please give us some clues where you heard Norman say this? Otherwise it just fuels the rumours that the VRWC are putting out there that Labour and the GP can’t get along.
      • anker 13.5.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:28 am

        Hi Weka,

        I heard it on the Nation this morning. I couldn’t quite believe it. So I posted it as “did I hear this right????” Anne has posted that she heard this too.

        If anyone has the time to watch the Nation, please do and if I heard it wrong, I stand corrected.

        Sorry Weka as a Labour voter, just very frustrated at the moment. In imho Labour have been great under Cunliffe and run a great clear, clean campaign. The one party who have been 100% clear about who they will and won’t work with (feel free to challenge me on this, but clearly there were some waters muddied with Normans comments about National and personally, I would want any party who get’s my vote to say I wouldn’t touch those dirty filthy slimy National B’s with a barge poll)
        • weka 13.5.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 12:00 pm

          Yes I can understand the frustration.

          ” The one party who have been 100% clear about who they will and won’t work with (feel free to challenge me on this, but clearly there were some waters muddied with Normans comments about National and personally, I would want any party who get’s my vote to say I wouldn’t touch those dirty filthy slimy National B’s with a barge poll)”

          Labour have changed their approach on this a few times. And Norman has been clear that the GP won’t support a National govt, and he did say they wouldn’t touch National with a barge poll, he just said it in his own way.

          I’ll see if I can watch it, ta.
          • anker 13.5.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 1:41 pm

            Hi Weka,

            Have Labour changed their approach? I mean Labour under Cunliffe? My impression is that they have been 100% clear.

            Do inform me if I have got this wrong.

            I think they have always said, Green, NZ first. I know they have only recently ruled out Maori. But I think three parties is more that enough.
            • weka 13.5.1.1.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 2:39 pm

              Hi anker,

              I just watched the interview with Norman. A couple of thoughts. One is that it was one line, that’s all. Norman didn’t slag off Labour, he said one thing, which was that the GP have been the best in opposition this time round (and I take that over teh whole term, so it’s not about Cunliffe). And he didn’t bring it up, it was a response to Gower.

              The other is that the thing that stood out for me most, was Gower’s insistence that Something had happened this week (in this case that the GP reached out to National and got slapped down). Norman says they haven’t talked to National, so who are we going to believe? Norman, or someone who is complicit in the VRWC, and is now taking part in the smearing of the GP that has been going on in the past week?

              I think we need to be careful here about who we are getting angry with. I appreciate as a Labour voter you would be upset at the GP actively going after Labour votes, but they’ve always been doing that. And I don’t see them doing much in the way of negative shit towards Labour. I do see the MSM talking up that the GP are doing this, but that is a different thing.

              Please bear in mind that the GP reached out to Labour earlier in the year and suggested that they work together going into the election. Labour said no way and made it very clear they would go for whatever left wing votes they could get. So we can’t blame the GP now for pushing the independence line.
              • anker …

                13 September 2014 at 3:33 pm

                All good Weka. Emotions running high at the moment. Have to keep the end goal in sight.

                Just think that the smears from Whale Oil/msm have been mainly targetting Labour as the biggest opposition party. I have looked at Labour’s polling and what has happened is this. First there was David Cunliffe’s trust issue. A mistake on his part, but one I believe that came from good intentions, i.e. to keep secret the donors from DC so he wouldn’t be influenced by them. So when it came out, he owned it and repaired it. Promptly. Then what happened was days and days and days of msm focus on it to the point where there was that ridiculous story about Cunliffe helping a friend overseas to buy a house. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT………Labour and Cunliffe drop in the polls. Then next the Dong Liu letter. Utterly clear a black ops job with msm complicit. Cunliffe and Labour drop again in the polls.

                I have been fine all along with Labour not teaming up with other parties. Labour is labour. We are getting our Red party back. I don’t believe Cunliffe has ever dissed other parties though????? But maybe I am wrong about that. I know he hasn’t been keen on the internet party.
                • weka …

                  13 September 2014 at 5:02 pm

                  The treatment of Cunliffe by the MSM has been despicable. Way worse than the treatment of the GP in the past year. Even if the left lose I hope that Cunliffe is given the chance to carry on with the changes that are happening withing Labour. But if we win, am looking forward to seeing how Labour and the GP figure out how to work together. Then there is Winston 😉
                  • anker …

                    13 September 2014 at 5:31 pm

                    I am glad other progressive voters can see and acknowledge what has been going on with Cunliffe. They have targeted him, I believe cause they see him as a threat. And the msm. i read an article today by Derek Chuang (I think, but I may be wrong) of the Herald and it was glowing re Cunliffe. Gosh it’s a shock. Possibly a first.

                    i think Cunliffe will bring together all the parties and have it working great. I think Meteria will make a great deputy PM, if it goes that way. Remember Cunliffe has worked with his “enemies”/abc’s well in the last year.
                    • weka …

                      13 September 2014 at 6:13 pm

                      “Remember Cunliffe has worked with his “enemies”/abc’s well in the last year.”

                      Good point.
              • Chooky …

                13 September 2014 at 3:48 pm

                +100 agreed weka…any comments by Norman have to be seen in context of the msm undermining of the Greens commitment to Labour and the Left…by the untrue insinuation that the Greens wanted a coalition deal with Key

                (….and hence undermining both Greens’ Labour support and the Greens’ integrity)

                Norman might just have been reasserting his commitment to the Left and opposition to Nactional by saying the Greens had been the most effective in opposition to Nactional ( an assertive and true statement which was taken by some as one-upmanship and putting down Labour)

                I believe the Greens have made no such overtures to Nactional….and John Key’s reaction that he would NOT even work with the Greens on any projects at all if he and Nactional he were re-elected….sounded to me as if overtures from his side had been smacked down by the Greens!

                ( i know Hooton has sometimes hinted a Green alliance with Nactional could be good)…pigs might fly!
                • weka …

                  13 September 2014 at 6:24 pm

                  Key’s rejection of the GP was funny given how much shit they’ve given him in the past few years.
                  • Chooky …

                    13 September 2014 at 6:39 pm

                    seems like the whole Green overtures to Nactional story was bullshit!

                    …the Greens and John Key hate each others guts…but I think John Key hates Winnie’s guts too …but that does not stop him trying to woo Winnie because John key is desperate

                    Conclusion: …. the REAL news about John Key and Nactional sliding in the polls was hidden and turned inside out by brown noser journalists to Keys PR story merchants (eg Hooton) …to make it look as if the Greens were courting John Key…. and then John Key was spurning and rejecting the Green’s advances…when in actual fact Key is in the supplicant begging position to the Greens and Winnie and is losing popularity massively ( many going from his party to the Greens and NZF) …and is desperate

                    ..the whole thing was a msm setup imo

                    …which means the Left must stay staunch and keep the msm on the REAL story which is John Key’s decline
    • Clemgeopin 13.6

      13 September 2014 at 12:35 pm

      Norman is getting more and more cocky and puts down Labour and Cunliffe directly or indirectly in his statement. I am disliking him and the Greens more and more now.
      • yeshe 13.6.1

        13 September 2014 at 3:32 pm

        Clemgeo — Yep, he lost my two ticks for GP yesterday.
        • Clemgeopin 13.6.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 5:01 pm

          yeshe —hope you won’t pass them on to NP or AP or CP or DP by mistake!
          • yeshe 13.6.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 5:07 pm

            have no fear .. numpty not 😀
      • KJT 13.6.2

        13 September 2014 at 6:04 pm

        God. More repeating of bullshit. Do you actually listen to what Greens are saying or do you have earmuffs on.
        • weka 13.6.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 6:15 pm

          I wouldn’t worrty about Clem. They’re a long time hater on the GP and have been distoring reality around them all year. Nothing to do with the current hooha methinks, although that is feeding them I guess.
          • Clemgeopin 13.6.2.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 7:20 pm

            @weka: I do not hate the Greens at all, but do dislike some of their policies and some of the tactics they use. I would even vote for them if Labour did not need many urgent votes at this election to make them a strong leading party for the long term survival of the potential coalition.
            • weka 13.6.2.1.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 7:24 pm

              If you don’t hate them you give a pretty good impression that you do. Might want to think about that. I’m not the only person who has commented on this.
              • Clemgeopin …

                13 September 2014 at 7:34 pm

                I certainly do not hate them. But that does not mean I can not take them to task and criticise them strongly for their silly tactics or for some of their unwise policies or naive statements from Norman that the guy he admires most is Bill English!.
                • weka …

                  13 September 2014 at 7:43 pm

                  My comment stands.
                  • Clemgeopin …

                    13 September 2014 at 8:01 pm

                    Mine too.
                    • weka …

                      13 September 2014 at 8:32 pm

                      non-sequitur
                    • Clemgeopin …

                      13 September 2014 at 9:01 pm

                      Ah, the old man’s trick, I see!
                      The moon isn’t made of green cheese, and many a muckle doesn’t make a mickle!
                    • McFlock …

                      14 September 2014 at 12:04 am

                      Mine too.

                      So although you “certainly do not hate them”, you “can […] take them to task and criticise them strongly” to such a degree that “you give a pretty good impression that you do” hate them. Super.

                      I love it when different factions on the wider Left community reach a consensus and can therefore focus on getting sociopathic, corrupt, and fucking evil (although the last one might be the whisky creating honesty) tories out of government.
                    • weka …

                      14 September 2014 at 12:28 am

                      Go the whisky!

                      It might be overstating the case to call Clem and I factions though.
                    • McFlock …

                      14 September 2014 at 1:17 am

                      vodka and lime now 🙂

                      ’tis an eternal conflict between the arrogance of the “self as unique” and the arrogance of “my opinion = everyone should see it that way”. In the middle is the area where we ain’t dicks, I reckon. We’ll never hit it 100%, all we can do is try 🙂
                • Ergo Robertina …

                  14 September 2014 at 12:15 am

                  ‘…that the guy he admires most is Bill English!.’

                  Yes, just like Cunliffe the other day saying the politician he most admired from another party was Jim Bolger.

                  I haven’t seen the Norman quote in context, but I assume it was the same premise.
        • McFlock 13.6.2.2

          13 September 2014 at 6:19 pm

          eyes closed, earmuffs on, screaming “lalala greens are stealing left wing labour votes so they can form a coalition with national lalala”.

          monomania to be cured by 21st sept, hopefully.
          • weka 13.6.2.2.1

            13 September 2014 at 6:22 pm

            I fear your hope will be dashed McFlock. There’s all the post-election coalition talks to get through.
            • yeshe 13.6.2.2.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 6:55 pm

              Just for the record, I am not a long time hater on the GP. Very, very far from it.

              Your abuse of me yesterday, and now again today, says much more about you than it does about me.

              Fwiw, I think your collective arrogance is just beyond reason. You all lecture endlessly.

              Greens’ members ? I call shame on you for disallowing any view to honestly differ from your own.
              • weka …

                13 September 2014 at 7:19 pm

                I don’t think you hate the GP and am pretty sure no-one here has said you do. I haven’t abused you in this thread yeshe, perhaps you could reread the comments. I and others have named Clem’s fairly extreme antagonism towards the GP. There are other people’s comments in the past about this. Nothing to do with you.

                “Greens’ members ? I call shame on you for disallowing any view to honestly differ from your own.”

                You weren’t disallowed. You had pretty free reign in OM yesterday. But you seem to be saying that you should be allowed to disagree with me but I’m not allowed to disagree with you? You got called out majorly in the previous few days because you repeatedly posted inaccuracies about the GP position, even after a number of people pointed this out, and you did that in the context of a VRWC smear. This is a political blog, I think it’s reasonable for people to react to what you did.

                I get you were upset, and I’m sorry you got such a shock from the smear. I think your distress was definitely second to the politics of the situation. My own thoughts are it’s better to deal with that degree of distress offline and then post on places like ts when there is less at stake emotionally.
                • yeshe …

                  13 September 2014 at 9:04 pm

                  “You got called out majorly in the previous few days because you repeatedly posted inaccuracies about the GP position, even after a number of people pointed this out, and you did that in the context of a VRWC smear.”

                  Really?

                  It was yesterday only. I posted only what came from Norman’s own mouth over several incidents. Julie Genter from her own twitter They were not all sound bites.

                  The lectures didn’t stop, including accusing me of doing Slater’s work. That is ugly and shocking. You did not agree with me, I did not agree with you.

                  But the various ones of you never allowed for any perception that differed from your own perfect view of Norman and insisting I was part of a right wing smear.

                  I call bullshit, weka.

                  HE MADE MISTAKES. Ask Metiria. I dare you.

                  Everyone will recover, but sometime in here, take off the rosy glasses and accept that Norman is human and he made some mistakes. Did they get distorted and pounced on by right wing MSM ? Almost certainly and horribly.

                  But that does not give you or anyone else the grounds to accuse me of being part of, or succumbing to a right wing smear and somehow associating me in posts with the names of the filthy Slater and Lusk.

                  No, you don’t get my upset, because you have no idea why I am upset.
                  You are all too busy being reactive in this awful political climate. I suggest “know your enemy” as a new lecture series you could begin.
                  • weka …

                    13 September 2014 at 9:12 pm

                    Tell me this yeshe, do you believe that the GP might support the formation of a National-led govt after the election?
                  • yeshe …

                    13 September 2014 at 9:19 pm

                    weka: you say “I don’t think you hate the GP and am pretty sure no-one here has said you do”.

                    No-one else did YOU DID. see your own post at 13.6.2.1

                    Sorry weka.

                    Let’s just agree to disagree and not waste any more of our lives on this particular piece? I’m done here for now.

                    There are some true battles we need to win, and sincerely, I wish you well through the coming days.
                    • weka …

                      13 September 2014 at 9:27 pm

                      13.6.2.1? This?

                      “I wouldn’t worrty about Clem. They’re a long time hater on the GP and have been distoring reality around them all year. Nothing to do with the current hooha methinks, although that is feeding them I guess.”

                      I was talking about Clem. That’s why I’ve put their name in the comment. If you look at the threading you will also see that KJT replied directly to Clem, and I replied to KJT. It was nothing to do with you. As I’ve already said. Please take a step back and consider why you are misinterpreting what I said.

                      Edit: just in case you missed this question, here it is again,

                      “Tell me this yeshe, do you believe that the GP might support the formation of a National-led govt after the election?”
                    • yeshe …

                      13 September 2014 at 9:57 pm

                      You write: ” Although that is feeding THEM” which does not refer solely to Clem. It refers to more than one, and it was under my name.

                      I suggest you read everything I have written if you want an answer to your question.

                      Don”t make shit up on my behalf like you did yesterday.

                      I’m not avoiding answering. Have just decided not to as the question is as irrelevant today as it was yesterday. I just am too bloody minded now to answer after all the shit that was made up yesterday and laid at my feet.

                      Why don’t you address some of what I wrote tonight if you want to engage?

                      No wonder wars break out.

                      Goodnight for now weka. Write yourself whatever you need the answer to be and sign my name to it. Then it will make perfect sense for you.
                    • weka …

                      13 September 2014 at 10:03 pm

                      I use ‘them’ regularly to refer to people when I don’t want to assume their gender. You will find that often in my comments. What is really bizarre here is that I’ve clarified that I wasn’t talking about you and you are still insisting that I was. Do you think I am lying?

                      I have read all your posts from the past day or so, as they came up. My understanding is that you believe that the GP might support the formation of a National govt after the election. It’s a pretty simple thing to clear up if I am wrong, so if you choose not to then I will have to go with my current understanding.
                    • yeshe …

                      13 September 2014 at 10:21 pm

                      OK I accept you are not lying in spite of how you posted.

                      Your understanding is your understanding. You misunderstood everything I tried to say yesterday. Everything. You and others were so quick to assume I was part of a right wing smear you never listened to anything I said.

                      Your whole attack on me yesterday was based on your assumptions and had nothing to do with anything at all I was trying to discover.

                      Logic would suggest you can therefore safely assume that you have misunderstood and pre-judged any answer to your question. They are your assumptions about me, not mine.

                      Like your comment I had been repeatedly posting misinformation for days ?? I call bullshit again weka. Why do you write in absolutes that exist only your own mind ?

                      “You got called out majorly in the previous few days because you repeatedly posted inaccuracies about the GP position, even after a number of people pointed this out, and you did that in the context of a VRWC smear. ”

                      Fucking bullshit and written by you. BULLSHIT.

                      rest well. we are all in need of it.
                    • weka …

                      13 September 2014 at 10:27 pm

                      “OK I accept you are not lying in spite of how you posted.”

                      Thank-you 🙂

                      “Your understanding is your understanding. You misunderstood everything I tried to say yesterday. Everything. You and others were so quick to assume I was part of a right wing smear you never listened to anything I said.”

                      And yet here I am asking for clarification, even in the face of some pretty heated stuff being directed at me.

                      “Like your comment I had been repeatedly posting misinformation for days ?? I call bullshit again weka. Why do you write in absolutes that exist only your own mind ?”

                      because you did. Shall I go back and link to some examples? I don’t mean that everything you wrote was misinformation. Obviously. I mean that you made some statements that were misinformation and you repeated them even after others tried to point out the problem.

                      “Logic would suggest you can therefore safely assume that you have misunderstood and pre-judged any answer to your question. They are your assumptions about me, not mine.”

                      Hmmm, we’re now in bad faith territory I think. Not really anywhere else to go if you so firmly believe that I am prejudiced against you.
                    • yeshe …

                      14 September 2014 at 5:09 pm

                      Hi weka … not sure if you will see this, but anyway, here goes on this lovely spring day filled with Glenn Greenwald’s erudition and facts …

                      No bad faith intended, ok ? Life is just too short, and I am not enjoying needing to fight you off if I post something you don’t like on TS. I would rather go quietly away.

                      But for now ….

                      This all began because of something I heard Norman say.

                      You (and others) told me repeatedly it was just a right wing smear tactic, and I was being fooled, along with some other stuff which we can just leave for now.

                      Now Russel Norman this morning on The Nation, in discussion with Paddy Gower, acknowledged exactly what I had heard, and during the same discussion explained he did it to flush National out. ( Now that may be a late rationale, when Paddy accused him of being ‘smacked down’ by National, and who could blame him.)

                      There’s much more to it the discussion, but basically Norman has confirmed it was not a right wing smear, but a deliberate tactic. He has confirmed that what I heard was correct, not me partaking in right wing smear. Time to put down your weapons, you and whoever else it was viciously accusing me.

                      Now can we leave it ? I have replied here because I am reluctant to open it all up again — I am sure we both have lives to enjoy !

                      Btw, loved Metiria on Q and A … was this re-building after what had gone on ? I think so. But clever to see them together. She is one very astute and compassionate politician — one day I hope she is PM. ( Privately, I think she has boxed his ears over the last few days, but that is conjecture and nothing else at all.)

                      Only six more days … may it bring exactly the changes we wish !

                      Thx Weka.
        • Clemgeopin 13.6.2.3

          13 September 2014 at 7:08 pm

          @KJT :No bull shit and no earmuffs. It is you that is blind and deaf here. It is Norman that has put a crude spoke in the coalition wheel by his talk about National support at this late stage in the election period, especially when the National vote is on the cusp of collapsing. Why the hell did he need to do that and confuse the voters as well as manage to antagonise Labour, its supporters and candidates? Perhaps he calculated that this tactic will make him somehow stronger and gain a few votes perhaps. But it is like trying to win a battle and lose the war, trust, friends and coalition relationships in the long term. In contrast, see what a clean positive wise campaign Cunliffe has run.

          In the ‘Prime Time’ programme yesterday on Prime, even Gerry Brownlee was alluding to Norman’s favourable position with regards to National. He said National has many options including Act, Cons party, UF, Maori, NZF and ‘most recently, even the Green party’, he said! I don’t think the Green party participant, Genter refuted that contentious issue strongly enough.

          Take a look at the video here: [Green-National issue is just after about 16 min or so]
          http://www.primetv.co.nz/Default.aspx?tabid=93&art_id=8633
          • weka 13.6.2.3.1

            13 September 2014 at 7:22 pm

            Riiight. So you now want people to take Gerry Brownlee’s word on this? Do you know what Dirty Politics is?

            “It is Norman that has put a crude spoke in the coalition wheel by his talk about National support at this late stage in the election period, especially when the National vote is on the cusp of collapsing.”

            You are partaking in the smear, which is ironic given what you accuse Norman of. Corin Dann brought up the National issue, the GP didn’t.
            • McFlock 13.6.2.3.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 7:34 pm

              Given that Genter corrected Brownlee on his figures for road use, costs of various transport modes, and even who authored the damned report he was trying to quote, I’m not surprised he had to resort to stirring shit.
              • weka …

                13 September 2014 at 7:43 pm

                Heh. I couldn’t bring myself to watch once I realised it was Sean Plunket.
                • McFlock …

                  13 September 2014 at 8:48 pm

                  lol
                  she made brownlee look like an oaf who didn’t know his job – big surprise.
                  My favourite bits were when he was bringing up points and she had this smile almost immediately that said she knew exactly what he was going to say, and had the precise figures at her fingertips to demonstrate his idiocy.

                  Well prepped, but she needs to work on that tell if she plays poker 🙂
                  • weka …

                    13 September 2014 at 9:33 pm

                    I’ve seen a few interviews in the past months where the GP MPs have been like that. Almost like they can answer the questions while juggling 15 balls in the air. Harre is like that too, sees it all coming. Gods I hope they get to be in govt, simply for the pleasure of having smart competent people there.
              • greywarbler …

                17 September 2014 at 10:45 am

                No wonder the PM is talking of incorporating CERA into his Orifice.
                RadioNZ had this.
                http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/253563/national-would-make-changes-to-cera
                Prime Minister John Key has announced the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority will be merged into the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, if a National government was re-elected.
                Mr Key said change was to maintain the momentum in the Canterbury rebuild and place the disaster recovery work at the core of central government planning. The new arrangement would be in place by next February.

                Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee said this did not represent a winding down of the recovery efforts, but a recognition the recovery programme is well underway.
                However, Labour dismissed the plan saying it wouldn’t help with the recovery.

                Saw this.
                http://rebuildingchristchurch.wordpress.com/2014/09/02/an-admission-of-failure-too-little-too-late/
                Ann September 9, 2014 at 10:04 am
                Some points of doubt about any value to Chch arising from PM’s action as suggested.
                1 PM is already too busy now with what he has on his plate, to actually do and know everything he should – more would be the straw that breaks the camels back. This camel already is on its knees.
                2 Anything sent to the PM would go through the PM Office. He has stated that does not mean that it has actually reached him. How does one ensure that this actually occurs and that he reads, and understands and actions, it?
                3 The Prime Minister’s Office and team has trouble staying on task of working for the government of the people and strays off into propaganda boosts for the PM and his Party, and planning strategic moves that involve nobbling his political opposition. Can we be assured that they would give Christchurch the blessing of their committed devotion to working to assist its needs? I think, from observation so far, the answer is no!
                4 If Christchurch was in Auckland it would be of interest, but to the PM and the Nats it’s just an annoying blob of buildings causing great cost to the country, for what is really just a waystation to the skiing resort of Queenstown. Which, unlike Chch, is trendy, and important to the Tourism portfolio of the PM, and fun for the PM and family to visit for skiing holidays, when they aren’t in Hawaii.
                5 Don’t get your hopes up Chch. Don’t throw your portaloos out yet, another wobble and shake and back to the future!
            • Clemgeopin 13.6.2.3.1.2

              13 September 2014 at 7:52 pm

              ” you accuse Norman of. Corin Dann brought up the National issue, the GP didn’t.”

              You are sure about that and that it was not an unwise political tactic/stunt from Norman? Have you spoken to Norman and has he said that Dann has lied about a strategy meeting about this issue taking place that evening? If so, he should sue Dann for misrepresentation. I don’t believe all this was simply made up by bad Dann.
              • KJT …

                13 September 2014 at 8:33 pm

                Well it is and was, right wing spin.
              • weka …

                13 September 2014 at 8:37 pm

                It all took place in the public domain. Go look it up.

                “I don’t believe all this was simply made up by bad Dann.”

                I don’t believe that it was simply made up by Dann either. Do you know what Dirty Politics is?
                • Clemgeopin …

                  13 September 2014 at 9:11 pm

                  So, if that is really the case, then why doesn’t Norman come out on TV and say that this episode from Dann was all a part of dirty politics? That shouldn’t be hard to do?
                  • weka …

                    13 September 2014 at 9:22 pm

                    I would guess that he won’t do that because (a) it plays into their hands, and (b) the GP adopted a strategy a long time ago of staying focussed on policy. You can see this in pretty much everything he does at the moment. Calling out Dann on his bullshit would be a distraction from that. It would also be hard to prove, so what would be the point? Am pretty sure it would just up the ante too. Turei handled it very well in the aftermath, was very gracious towards Dann. Well played.

                    I actually find it interesting the large amount of advice being directed at Norman and the GP at the moment about how they should conduct themselves. The thing I keep coming back to is that they did the hard yards for such a long time under a relentlessly negative media and eventually they figured it out so that in recent years they’ve done very well. I think they know what they are doing. This doesn’t mean they don’t make mistakes. I would guess they didn’t see this one coming, but my impression is that they’re here for the long haul and this is just another piece of weird shit along the way.
14. weka 14

    13 September 2014 at 10:56 am

    The Topp Twins nail it on Kim Hill this morning. Stop using nitrates. Nitrates feed the grass and kill the microbes in the soil. The grass grows well that season, but over time the degradation of the soil continues, making nitrates necessary for any growth. Eventually those nitrates end up in the water. Instead, feed the soil (with organic inputs). Healthy soil grows healthy grass and doesn’t have problematic runoffs. Simple.
    • Lanthanide 14.1

      13 September 2014 at 11:37 am

      Organic inputs require more labour and work to create compared to nitrates. This means on a very large scale, they’d be more expensive.
      • weka 14.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:43 am

        I’d like to see an analysis of that, that takes into account the labour and work involved in dealing with nitrate mitigation. If we want to make this an economic issue.

        More expensive on a large scale, that’s an argument for smaller scale farming. We used to have smaller dairy herds for instance. Artificial fertiliser has artificially inflated our capabilities, and that is not sustainable (certainly not in the physical world, but probably not in the financial world either).

        I’m not talking lifestyle block small farming either. There is some impressive sustainable land management being done on big farms too.
      • The Al1en 14.1.2

        13 September 2014 at 11:46 am

        Yes, but unlike the finite cost of fences and riparian planting around farm waterways, nutrient run off is a still a major issue and heavy polluter of our streams and rivers. User pays for the practice or has to change the methods. They are the choices. Might as well employ people and at the same time protect the viability of the soil under our feet, rather than pay the fines or compliance fees.
        • Draco T Bastard 14.1.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 1:55 pm

          Need to make the fines and compliance fees enough to force change. Also need to enforce those laws.
15. Jrobin 15

    13 September 2014 at 11:38 am

    100+ Weka, added to that it also means the soil stops being a carbon sink as it is a sterile system. The misreporting on nitrates is infuriating. Cow pee is blamed for the nitrogen in the rivers but this is dishonest, cows are fed on nitrogen fertilised grass and they excrete these nutrients in excessive amounts. But there is also the leaching from fertiliser directly into rivers from porous soils in particular. Urea a byproduct of the oil industry so misinformation is unsurprising.
16. Lanthanide 16

    13 September 2014 at 11:39 am

    My EasyVote card has arrived in the mail. I’ll be off to vote within the hour!
    • karol 16.1

      13 September 2014 at 11:42 am

      I’m voting next Saturday – I am emotionally invested in the ritual of going out to vote on election day.
      • weka 16.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 11:45 am

        Me too, although I am tempted to vote on Friday, which is an anniversary of women’s suffrage.
        • tricle up 16.1.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 12:29 pm

          Do not Russell the horses..
          • Rodel 16.1.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 1:01 pm

            I’m voting Monday. If I kharked it before election day and Key got back I’d never RIP.
            • Chooky 16.1.1.1.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 3:00 pm

              +100 Rodel…lol…we must encourage all those elderly relatives, the infirm and the chronically ill … and all those on their death beds to ARISE and VOTE EARLY!

              …and all those indigent strugglers, the lazy bastard self- absorbed anarchist gamer youth, the couch layabouts, and all those devil may care revellers and piss heads who drink too much on Friday and recuperate all day Saturday so they can hit the town again Saturday night ….. to go out and VOTE EARLY !

              ( we need to provide transport and practical moral support as well as encouragement to vote )

              …I am voting early too…just in case I get hit by a bus
        • lprent 16.1.1.2

          13 September 2014 at 1:37 pm

          I voted today. Quite amusing watching people taking selfies *outside* of the Grey Lynn Community Hall with the voting signs behind them.
      • TheContrarian 16.1.2

        13 September 2014 at 1:39 pm

        @Karol

        Me too. I love election day
        • lprent 16.1.2.1

          13 September 2014 at 1:56 pm

          It felt just like election day today at Grey Lynn when I voted.

          There were 3 booths and two were full. Someone was finding out what electorate they were in down in Dunedin. People were pulling in and out of the car park.

          To top it all off, it had that classic Auckland deluge that we call “rain” and lots of people hanging around waiting for it to subside so they could get to their home or cars without getting soaked..
          • TheContrarian 16.1.2.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 3:44 pm

            I also have to say, on a personal note, that I think early voting – unless necessary – seems like an exercise in hubris. How can anyone be so sure, in advance, that nothing will change their mind between now and election day? It’s like religion. Minds are made without all facts, opinions, outcomes or policies being presented.

            *personal opinion, all rights reserved. Individual results may vary
            • Clemgeopin 16.1.2.1.1.1

              13 September 2014 at 4:10 pm

              I agree with you in a way. Early voting is fine if one knows in advance that next Saturday would be personally inconvenient or if one wishes to avoid crowds or long lines or some other good reason.
              One week is a long time in politics. So for some early voting may turn out to be act in haste, regret at leisure….as I suspect has already happened for some in the last few days.
              • TheContrarian …

                13 September 2014 at 4:48 pm

                A National voter may have voted last week then go “Fuck” on Monday after Dotcom’s announcement.
                • yeshe …

                  13 September 2014 at 5:09 pm

                  May it echo loudly through the land !!
                  • McFlock …

                    13 September 2014 at 7:38 pm

                    but not too loudly, otherwise they might win on optimistically-cast advance votes 😉
                • Draco T Bastard …

                  13 September 2014 at 7:44 pm

                  I suspect that such a voter doesn’t exist. If they did then they would have stopped voting National when Dirty politics was published and we became aware of just how corrupt National really is.

                  What’s going to happen over the next week as more of National’s corruption and lying comes to light is that a few undecideds will definitely decide not to vote National. I just hope that they decide to vote and vote left so that a full royal inquiry can be mounted and the corruption brought fully to light.
                  • yeshe …

                    13 September 2014 at 10:03 pm

                    yes to full royal inquiries.
            • Draco T Bastard 16.1.2.1.1.2

              13 September 2014 at 7:40 pm

              How can anyone be so sure, in advance, that nothing will change their mind between now and election day?

              Quite easy really. They keep themselves informed and don’t wait around to be advertised at by the political parties.

              Minds are made without all facts, opinions, outcomes or policies being presented.

              We’re not omniscient so that’s always going to be the case. Nothing to do with religion.
              • TheContrarian …

                13 September 2014 at 9:36 pm

                Awesome, it’s Draco. The only man in New Zealand that understands economics, politics, society and computing. How’s that “hacking isn’t really much of a problem” point of view going?

                “They keep themselves informed and don’t wait around to be advertised at by the political parties.”

                Who was talking about being advertised at? I’m talking about voting early before full policy announcements have been made. You’ll note voting opened before many of the parties had fully released policy proposals. Only a person not interested in weighing the party on it’s policies would decide which party was right for them without actually understanding what the party was actually going to bring to the table by way of policy.
                • Draco T Bastard …

                  14 September 2014 at 12:06 am

                  The only man in New Zealand that understands economics, politics, society and computing.

                  The poor little contrarian is feeling threatened by little old me.

                  Only a person not interested in weighing the party on it’s policies would decide which party was right for them without actually understanding what the party was actually going to bring to the table by way of policy.

                  And only a fool would vote purely on policies. Sure, policies are important but the attitude of the party and how it relates to and treats others is more important.
                  • TheContrarian …

                    14 September 2014 at 10:23 am

                    Yes, so very threatened.

                    “And only a fool would vote purely on policies.”

                    And only a fool would vote without considering the policies which is why voting before all the policies have been presented is a silly idea
            • lprent 16.1.2.1.1.3

              14 September 2014 at 6:36 pm

              I made up my mind about my vote in 2012. I wrote about it then.

              Ephemeral changes in party positions and strategy are more like advertising than reality.
          • Ffloyd 16.1.2.1.2

            13 September 2014 at 9:09 pm

            Four ticks for Labour from us at Te Awamutu. Apparently a solid turnout. Love being able to vote early. Always going to be Labour. No doubt.
17. adam 17

    13 September 2014 at 11:54 am

    Just in case you think we can’t get any worse, via education. Look at this being the model post TPP.

    http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/09/12/15495/koch-foundation-proposal-college-teach-our-curriculum-get-millions
18. karol 18

    13 September 2014 at 12:01 pm

    Tracy Watkins on the Greenwald interview:

    Kiwis are being spied on by the Government Communications Security Bureau, raising serious questions about whether Prime Minister John Key has been telling them the truth, an American journalist says.
    […]
    Greenwald said he knew for certain that the New Zealand government engaged in “extraordinary amounts of analysis of metadata”. ” Meaning whose talking to who, for how long, where they are when they speak, on a massive indiscriminate scale not just internationally but of New Zealanders as well.”

    New Zealand spent an “extraordinary amount of resource” for a country its size on electronic surveillance and “every single thing that the NSA does…involves NZ directly. They are full fledged allies of this effort.”

    That included spying on foreign governments, both friendly and hostile.
    • adam 18.1

      13 September 2014 at 12:05 pm

      IT’s Ohhh Ahhhh stuff.

      http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/thenation/interview-glenn-greenwald-2014091311
    • weka 18.2

      13 September 2014 at 12:33 pm

      watch the cognitive dissonance kick in.
    • yeshe 18.3

      13 September 2014 at 3:13 pm

      Is there any chance someone might point out to Key that all pejoratives he throws at Glenn Greenwald, such as “Dotcom’s little henchman” will end up in The Guardian, and likely other international front pages also.

      Please, only one more week to go of this oaf ….
      • McFlock 18.3.1

        13 September 2014 at 7:39 pm

        like when he claimed that he could buy a dozen environmental scientists into saying that many of our rivers aren’t shit-laden.
        • yeshe 18.3.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 10:05 pm

          just like that, Hard Copy all over again. Aren’t we so lucky he is Minister of Tourism ?? only seven more days ….
          • yeshe 18.3.1.1.1

            13 September 2014 at 10:28 pm

            Have you seen Nixon/Frost is just starting on TV3 ? Very stealthy of somebody to have it playing tonight !! Yay !!!
19. Brendan 19

    13 September 2014 at 1:44 pm

    Hey team,

    Long time reader, first time poster—and what a post! It just kept going. Beat mainstream soundbite commentary. That’s why we come here isn’t it.

    Anyway…

    It’s a week out from the general elections and I’m hedging my bets and these are my predictions. I’ve provided rationale for my estimates and tried to be not biased (I know it’s hard not to be). Don’t ask me what they would be in seats because I can’t find a Sainte-Laguë calculator that accounts for our one seat rule and I’m too rusty on maths for doing it the long way by hand. Rounding to 0.25%.

    National: 42%
    Labour: 30%
    Green: 13%
    NZ First: 6.5%
    Conservative: 3.75%
    Internet-Mana: 3.25%
    ACT: 0.75%
    Māori Party: 0.5%
    United Future: 0.25%
    Others: 0.25%

    Rationale

    National: It’s a well know fact the polls consistently over estimate National’s popularity because of the absence of land lines as well as failure to capture social media communication. Corporate media interests will also play down relevant critical factors such as undecided voters or those who refuse to say. History shows polls have them 3-6% above their actual election results, and with recent polls hovering around 47% this might drop. Also they will inevitably be bleeding voters to Conservative and possibly NZ First in the wake of the Hager revelations. However, some centrist supports willing to vote Labour will cling on because they moan about the Green Party et al.

    Labour: I admit this may be a little bit biased—just a little—but I think the younger and working-class poor voters might be swayed in this direction especially given the media are finally giving Cunliffe an equal platform with people using their own judgements because of the debates. There will still be the usual centre left people that moan about not liking Cunliffe’s personality without any basis for the claim—so-called “personality voters”. Again, Labour will be loosing votes to the Greens, especially professional middle-class liberals.

    Green: I think most polls are reasonably accurate in this area—maybe a slight underestimate, especially if they can capture the notoriously lazy student vote. I don’t see them getting to their desired 15% despite a solid social media campaign. They might be loosing some potential votes to Internet-Mana for appearing more business friendly—albeit in a more sustainability eco-friendly way.

    NZ First: The Winston Factor: he always gets across the line (except 2008). Will pick up the Gold-Card vote and possibly a few disgruntled National, and maybe Labour voters. His obstinacy regarding coalition partners will hold him back from anything higher though.

    Conservative: The old school National voters disgruntled with their soft stance on social policy, as well as things like farm sales, asset sales, referenda etc. The so-called “moral compass” vote. Might pick up some votes from Winston for the aforementioned reasons. Will pick up some of the fundamentalist fringe New Age Born Again Christian vote.

    Internet-Mana: While they started off with a roar, they aren’t going to get near the lofty heights they predicted. However, polls probably underestimate their vote. Hello? Internet Party—they live on smart phones and Facebook. Mana voters tend to be working class poor too. The social media campaign has really lit a fire under them too, especially with the injection of you-know-who’s money, which leads me to my next point: the Dotcom factor. This will put off many people, especially the “radical agitator” rhetoric, which I personally don’t care about—I love the revolutionary talk as much as the next flaming liberal—but I just don’t see this going down well with older lefties or moderates. I think Cunliffe’s refusal to include them in Cabinet will have some people marching back to the Green-Labour (or Māori) camp. The new cannabis policy may see them pick up the stoner vote—if they remember to vote.

    ACT: Jamie Whyte is far too ideological and intellectual for simple-minded people. The far-right Americanism of their campaign will have them fall off the rails. New Zealand is just not ready or has the disposition for this shift in direction despite National dancing with it loosely. Nobody knows who David Seymour is or cares about him. He will probably get Epsom for ACT again because National voters do what they’re told, but with a reduced margin because of smart liberal voters wanting to put the last nail in the ACT coffin. Still, Epsom’s wealthy constituents will sadly outnumber the tactical liberal voters. Will inevitably pick up some of the corporate and wealthy migrant vote.

    Māori Party: Damaged goods—and despite their best intentions they know it. They might pick up one seat if they can hold back the growing Internet-Mana tide. Elitist Māori will still vote for them however.

    United Future: United whom? Apart from bow ties and kowtowing to National for the last six years, nobody knows what this party stands for (if anything). Please somebody put the nail in this coffin! Will probably get Ōhariu back again because of subservient National voters—with a reduced margin—despite the best intentions of tactical Labour and Green voters. If I were living in Wellington Central, Hutt, or Mana, I would make it my duty to somehow get registered in Ōhariu to vote this muppet out.

    Others: Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party might loose votes to Internet-Mana and Ben Uffindell’s hung-over friends might give him the tick if they can make it to a polling booth. All others not worth mentioning.

    Get out and vote!
    • Pasupial 19.1

      13 September 2014 at 3:01 pm

      Brendan

      Here is the Electoral Commission calculator:

      http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator

      Your guesstimate numbers add up to 100.25% so I trimmed back the CP, and (if ACT, MANA, & MP all got an electorate) would give: NP 52 + A 1 + M 1 = 54, vs; LP 38 + GP 16 + IMP 4 = 58 with NZF on 8 as kingmaker. Assuming 120 seats (no overhang).

      It’s a fun enough game playing with the various scenarios, but I prefer going out and convincing people to head down to the ballot box at this stage.
    • Chooky 19.2

      13 September 2014 at 3:13 pm

      Brendan +100…great analysis…and enjoyable reading
    • millsy 19.3

      13 September 2014 at 3:17 pm

      Personally I think Internet-Mana has shot its bolt and will not get into Parliament apart from Hone, and perhaps taking in Harre with him. Which is a pity really…

      NZ First IMO has done enough to get into Parliament again, and WP will need to decide to have a crack at 2017 or hand over to Ron Mark, and retire to his stud farm in Papakura…

      It looks like National will get in again, unless Key falls under a bus between now and next Saturday.

      Oh well, Ill probably spend the next week or so National-proofing my life…
    • mickysavage 19.4

      13 September 2014 at 8:03 pm

      Good comment Brendan. I don’t disagree with anything you have said. The Winston vote needs a bit more analysis but otherwise spot on.
    • Colonial Viper 19.5

      14 September 2014 at 12:27 am

      IMO Internet Mana on ~4%. And I think Key is going to come in circa 44%. Labour should definitely count its lucky stars if it gets 30%-31%.
20. anker 20

    13 September 2014 at 3:44 pm

    lol Millsy, I thought you were going to say ” Oh well I will probably spend the next week or so driving a bus”

    That is very naughty of me!
21. RedBaronCV 21

    13 September 2014 at 6:23 pm

    It’s suffragette day on Friday Any chance of the Standard having a suffragette themed week(purple & green on open mike? ) just to remind everyone that voting hasn’t always been a right for all. Don’t let great granny down!
    • mickysavage 21.1

      13 September 2014 at 8:04 pm

      Sounds good RB. Anyone got a good graphic?
22. AsleepWhileWalking 22

    13 September 2014 at 6:47 pm

    Disappointing to see the coverage saying Cunliff’s charity was “wasted” because the person to whom he gave money had already voted Mana. That’s MSM for you.
23. weka 23

    13 September 2014 at 7:35 pm

    Great commentary from Curwen Rolinson on the Corin Dann hooha,

    This is literally all that Norman meant by “working with” National, and all I can conclude is that TVNZ have deliberately decided to play up the fact the average punter hasn’t got a huge idea about the difference between a coalition, a confidence & supply agreement and merely *voting for another party’s policy every now and then when it’s demonstrably something your own party likes anyway*.

    Coming from New Zealand First, I suppose I’ve got a better grasp of this than some in the Press Gallery (or, given the turgid tone of the story, Fleet St) … but one of our mantras sums this up well: we will support good policy and oppose bad policy *no matter where it comes from*. The Green Party’s been really good at reaching across the aisle (as opposed to merely *around* the aisle, if you get my drift) during its previous few terms as our 3rd largest party, and I actually find it kind of sad that such incredibly circumstantial evidence is being used to sketch out a narrative of a powerhungry Green party prepared to do deals with literally anybody in pursuit of office.

    Considering the Green Party’s likely pivotal role in this year’s Election; as well as the fact that National’s narrative of invincibility into a third term is floundering due to the fading fortunes of its support partners … the only serious question about this story (aside from “how outraged am I that this is apparently “news”) is which way to read this story in the grand scheme of things.

    Craven journalistic opportunism? National kite-flying by getting its pliant friends in the media to test the waters for how palatable an *actual* #BlueGreen2014 (or, more plausibly, 2017 or 20NEVER) coalition would be with the electorate? Or typical Kiwi tall poppy syndrome seeing the only seriously rising force in this campaign and wanting to throw an incredible spanner amidst their midships by promoting sensationalist gossip magazine style tactical projections that may have only a slapping distance relationship with reality.

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/09/12/guest-blog-curwen-rolinson-bluegreen2014-or-the-media-jetskiis-over-a-shark-tank/
    • mickysavage 23.1

      13 September 2014 at 8:06 pm

      I really hope Curwen is the future of NZ First, presuming they survive. Otherwise Labour should put out the red carpet. He is an interesting dedicated observer of NZ politics with a bit of passion. You can’t go wrong …
      • weka 23.1.1

        13 September 2014 at 8:44 pm

        I was thinking that too. Do you know what he is up to in Epsom?
        • mickysavage 23.1.1.1

          13 September 2014 at 8:59 pm

          Nope but he will have thought it through and the ACT activists hate it …
      • Chooky 23.1.2

        13 September 2014 at 11:26 pm

        ms…agreed…NZF does have some goodies
24. ianmac 24

    13 September 2014 at 9:01 pm

    “John Key Naked” the Interview published by the Jackal.
    Very very funny and very very clever.
    Its on the side panel. Don’t know how to put a link.
25. joe90 25

    13 September 2014 at 9:59 pm

    Decent people speaking up.

    More than 40 former soldiers and current army reservists have signed a letter refusing future service in the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) military intelligence wing, known as Unit 8200.

    Unit 8200 is often compared to the United States National Security Agency. It uses sophisticated technology to monitor the lives of Palestinians, gathering information which is then used by Israel’s military. It also carries out surveillance overseas.

    But the group of soldiers who served in the unit has spoken out about the methods used and the toll they take on innocent civilians in the occupied Palestinian territories.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-13/israeli-soldiers-refuse-to-spy-on-palestinians/5741492
    • Chooky 25.1

      13 September 2014 at 11:19 pm

      @joe90 …Brave soldiers…they restore your faith in humanity!

      …but what Israel is doing to the Palestinians is unbearable, blood chilling and horrendous…this State is a disgrace to the memories of the holocaust victims…and should be boycotted around the world…certainly New Zealand and New Zealanders should be very wary…

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