Open mike 14/09/2023

46 comments on “Open mike 14/09/2023 ”

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1. SPC 1

   14 September 2023 at 6:44 am

   Promoting the end of the petrol tax in Auckland nationwide.

   The well to do driving our of Auckland, while Auckland RC has a funding crisis dealing with the hole in its budget.

   

   Public servants driving out of Wellington looking for work.

   Those in flood areas looking to relocate, before the consequences of National looting the climate change fund for tax cut money impacts on local property values.

   Reply
2. SPC 2

   14 September 2023 at 7:52 am

   Since August 2020, rent increases have been limited to once every 12 months, with at least 60 days’ written notice.

   The law does not limit how much landlords can increase the rent by, but tenants who think their rent is too high can apply to the Tenancy Tribunal.

   Evidence of a tight market

   David Pearse, chairman of the Residential Property Mangers Association, said he was aware that some tenants were offering to pay more than advertised rent to secure houses.

   Likelihood of continuing rise in rent

   Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac, said the Stats NZ data was showing quite a lot of strength.

   Rent was an important component of domestic inflation, he said.

   ”It’s stemming from really strong migration and population growth. …He said the trend would probably continue because migration was not showing any sign of easing.

   He said rent inflation this high would make it hard for the Reserve Bank to get back to its target range.

   Economists were forecasting a fairly significant fall in inflation soon. “Things like this raise a question about whether that’s really going to happen.”

   The Greens policy of a future 3% cap to rent rises seems wise.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300970166/as-a-single-mum-thats-impossible-rents-rise-as-migration-jumps

   Reply
   • Ad 2.1

     14 September 2023 at 12:30 pm

     3% increase tops per year seems fine unless you are facing interest rate rises as the landlord of more than 3% per year and rates going up more than 7-10% per year.

     Don't believe the bull about inflation in either food or electricity or petrol coming down any time this year.

     Inflation globally is caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine: at least 3 more years to go.

     Reply
     • SPC 2.1.1

       14 September 2023 at 12:47 pm

       The experts predict 4% CPI by the end of this year and 3% by the end of next year.

       Inflation is going down, despite that conflict continuing.

       The impact on global distribution (from the pandemic and division because of sanctions) has already occured – a one off cost. Our weather events (the La Nina/El Nino change reduces NI flood risk) and one offs – gib board and eggs are done.

       3% increase tops per year seems fine unless you are facing interest rate rises as the landlord of more than 3% per year and rates going up more than 7-10% per year.

       Cry me a river. The mortgage rates are not going up in the next year, they are flat. And this is the major cost for most, so the average cost increase for landlords is way down (they've already met the cost of rental standards).

       Reply
       • Ad 2.1.1.1

         14 September 2023 at 12:56 pm

         When those costs go up, the cost of renting that asset out goes up as well.

         If you are going to price-regulate rent increases you need to price-regulate bank interest charges, and price-regulate council rate increases.

         None are likely under any government combination.

         Reply
         • SPC 2.1.1.1.1

           14 September 2023 at 1:09 pm

           What a sad take, rents have gone up faster then costs for a generation – coz of lack of supply in the market.

           Did rents go down when mortgage rates fell below historic averages – no. It's a supply and demand market.

           It's that sort of attitude in centrist Labour that explains why real social democrats move to Greens/TPM.

           Tenants have their rental standards, and the one annual increase – whether it is 3 or 10% depends on who is in government.

           Reply
           • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1.1.1

             14 September 2023 at 1:37 pm

             My mother's rent up enormously when the landlord moved have a rental agency deal with his property. He was previously making a good profit as the mortgage was paid off years ago. Company insisted it b put up to market rent – increased by $100-00 per week only cause he refused to put it up by their recommended $140-00. Nothing to do with increased costs at all even allowing for agency charges.

             Market rates – equals as much as you can get away with.

             Reply
           • Ad 2.1.1.1.1.2

             14 September 2023 at 4:31 pm

             Rental housing has been plenty re-regulated with this government, both as an investment class and as an operation.

             On one place we haven't put the rent up for four years.

             On the others we stay well below the Trademe average.

             We like the loyalty it generates to each other.

             Reply
           • Incognito 2.1.1.1.1.3

             14 September 2023 at 8:36 pm

             Over the last 20 years, wage rises and the relative supply and demand of homes were the 2 key drivers of rents at both the national and regional level, the paper shows.

             https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2023/08/what-drives-rents-in-new-zealand

             Reply
             • SPC …

               15 September 2023 at 1:43 am

               Mortgage as a cost impacting on rents – yeah nah.

               The study found rents increase when mortgage interest rates rise, but the impact is quite small. This is consistent with previous analysis done by the Housing Technical Working Group on the impact of land supply restrictions. This is because when land supply is highly constrained, we would expect financial factors, such as interest rates, to have a greater impact on house prices than rents.

               Over the last 20 years, wage rises and the relative supply and demand of homes were the 2 key drivers of rents at both the national and regional level, the paper shows.

               The key thing is that a restraint on rent rises (whether a freeze of a 3% cap) does not impact on new build rents as they are directly part of market supply and demand pricing.

               Thus a government could contain rent costs of existing tenants without impact on new housing supply

               When the effect of other factors is excluded, a 1% increase in nominal wages leads directly to a 1% increase in new tenancy rents; the paper's authors say. New tenancy rents respond more quickly to market changes than rents paid by sitting tenants.

               Reply
         • Sanctuary 2.1.1.1.2

           14 September 2023 at 3:40 pm

           Ad – I know you are an aficionado of political biography and I reckon this one is going to be a cathartic hum dinger…

           https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/11/mitt-romney-retiring-senate-trump-mcconnell/675306/

           Reply
           • Ad 2.1.1.1.2.1

             14 September 2023 at 7:02 pm

             I'd suggest he waits at least until the first three trials have verdicts in.

             Personally I like contenders like John Kerry who reinvent themselves.

             Reply
3. Ric Stacey 3

   14 September 2023 at 8:07 am

   Many voters are upset by food prices.

   Supermarket prices here are more expensive than in Australia.

   https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/12-04-2023/how-much-cheaper-are-groceries-in-australia-than-new-zealand-really claim by 25%.

   If the Greens want to increase their vote they should announce a strong and effective policy to bring about significant competition to the supermarkets as quickly as possible.

   Labour should emphasize they have work in this area "underway" and promise to prioritize this next term.

   Reply
   • arkie 3.1

     14 September 2023 at 8:24 am

     “A report released today says that the Government’s proposed reforms will not be enough to address the high cost of groceries,” says the Green Party’s spokesperson for commerce and consumer affairs, Ricardo Menéndez March.

     “The report agrees with what the Green Party has been saying for a really long time: that the time is now to break up the supermarket duopoly.

     “Not only that but the government can take immediate action with a tax on excessively high supermarket profit and use the money to help people.

     “The report comes only a day after Statistics NZ announced the highest food price inflation since 1987. This cannot be allowed to continue.

     “At the same time, the two largest supermarket corporations in Aotearoa are making $1 million in profits per day while whānau struggle to put food on the table.

     “We’re long overdue a serious look at forcing supermarkets to divest their subsidiary companies. The Green Party is the only party with the solutions that work and with more MPs we can make sure supermarkets work for people, not profit,” says Ricardo Menéndez March.

     https://www.greens.org.nz/govt_must_break_up_supermarkets

     Labour leader Chris Hipkins believes there are better ways to bring down the cost of housing, electricity and groceries than new taxes.

     But in at least three of those areas – electricity, banking and groceries – a third-term Labour-led government would not rule out taxes on excessive profits, should other measures fail to rein them in.

     "Tax is not the only way you can tackle inequality," Hipkins – whose grasp on the prime ministership is looking shakier with every poll – told Mata this week.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/mata-with-mihingarangi-forbes/story/2018906387/episode-18-an-interview-with-labour-leader-chris-hipkins-september-12th-mata

     It is being done, even if it is not widely reported.

     As an aside, I would be interested in what 'ways' Hipkins is referring to specifically when he talks of 'tackling inequality' if not tax given that progressive taxation has long been the most common and effective method of redistribution.

     Reply
     • Ric Stacey 3.1.1

       14 September 2023 at 8:59 am

       All very useful.

       Clearly from the polls too many people do not believe that a left government will deal with the issues that are important to them.

       I believe that only a significant, clearly communicated, game- changing and inspiring policy that addresses peoples primary concerns will shift votes.

       The current campaign is not working for the left.

       What policies do people think could meet these criteria?

       Reply
       • Blazer 3.1.1.1

         14 September 2023 at 9:39 am

         Perception trumps reality.

         Voters believe Labour is soft on crime,panders to Maori,and causes inflation through profligate spending.

         The opposition hammer those topics and shy away from 'solutions'.

         Reply
         • weka 3.1.1.1.1

           14 September 2023 at 10:01 am

           What voters? Last time I looked the left block was sitting on 40+ %. If you want to be taken seriously, stop with the inane generalisations.

           The issue is swing voters, and we don't quite know why they are voting the way that they are. I'm a fan of Lynn's theory about voters rating perception of competency highly. And sure, crime, co-governance and cost of living a issues.

           But it's not a simple as you make out. Labour turned around the 2017 election with a change of leader.

           Reply
           • weka 3.1.1.1.1.1

             14 September 2023 at 10:03 am

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_election_(blocs).svg

             Reply
           • Blazer 3.1.1.1.1.2

             14 September 2023 at 10:08 am

             What voters?

             The voters reflected in poll after poll….those voters.

             As for 'inane' that's quite an audacious accusation, considering we are all talking opinion.

             Simplicity is always best imo.

             Changing leaders ,what could be more simple than…your example?

             Reply
             • weka …

               14 September 2023 at 10:38 am

               so no evidence for your claim then, nor even any meaningful argument.

               If you said something like "I reckon the issue is many swing voters want action on crime, cost of living", that's opinion. What you did was spout FB-esque reckons as if they are fact.

               Reply
               • Blazer …

                 14 September 2023 at 10:44 am

                 I didn't actually.

                 If you think every opinion has to be backed by what you consider hard fact….no one would venture an …opinion.

                 You supplied a link that actually endorses the fact that the majority of voters have no intention of voting …Labour.

                 The issues that have been canvassed by msm certainly include the ones I mention.

                 As for being taken seriously…'physician,heal thyself'!

                 Reply
                 • weka …

                   14 September 2023 at 11:48 am

                   you're still missing the point. You said voters believe Labour is soft on crime etc. It's not so much about hard evidence as any evidence at all. You're running some talking points. I'm saying we deserve a more indepth analysis here, and you are quite capable of doing that rather than treating TS like FB or twitter.

                   Reply
                   • Blazer …

                     14 September 2023 at 12:19 pm

                     I'm not missing any point afaic.

                     You may decree the 'issue is swing voters' on open mike.

                     If you choose to believe that perception is irrelevant and no proof exists that it is very pertinent,why do you think Labours fortunes changed dramatically with Ardern,becoming…leader?

                     Fyi ,I do not participate in FB or twitter.I presume you…do.
                   • James Thrace …

                     14 September 2023 at 7:22 pm

                     I don’t come to open mike to read hard hitting facts and analysis. I come to open mike to see what people are thinking and what opinions people have on the news of the day. I don’t want to be assaulted by a page of links and screeds of detailed analysis. If I want that I’ll read Mickey Savages posts which are concise and well written with cogent analysis. If I want a lecture, Ill read your posts Weka.

                     otherwise Ill scroll down the page, engage with those opinions I’ve read news of, and might correct if the OP is misunderstood.

                     Weka, your need for links for every comment on open mike is killing the joy.
                   • weka []

                     15 September 2023 at 9:55 am

                     I don’t come to open mike to read hard hitting facts and analysis. I come to open mike to see what people are thinking and what opinions people have on the news of the day. I don’t want to be assaulted by a page of links and screeds of detailed analysis.

                     Indeed. OM is a mix of opinion, news of the day, and links people might be interested in. We don’t in fact allow screed of links, the spam filter will block comments with too many.

                     The key point here is that the opinions need to be expressed as opinions and have some political meaning. Blazer’s original comment failed in that imo, and I addressed it with opinions of my own and an explanation. No links, no screed of analysis, but some connection to what is actually happening with polling.

                     Instead of taking up that challenge and explaining their thinking more in depth, they got defensive and doubled down. I think they’re better than that.

                     And I didn’t ask for links, so you’ve misunderstood what I was saying. I asked for evidence based debate. People can express their opinions without links, we do it all the time. Those opinions have to have grounding in reality though, and if they are making claims of fact they have to back it up if asked (that’s in the Policy).

                     It’s a tricky balance. I get that people want a more free flowing conversation. But the amount of work to reign in trolling after it starts is large, and it compounds if we let the trolling establish within the commentariat culture. Social media has also had an impact with a noticeable increase in FB-esque posts, where people are just posting casual reckons. We still have space here for short comments, humour, back and forth jibes, but we also keep an eye out on patterns of behaviour likely to cause problems.

                     Blazer wasn’t trolling, but they do push the boundaries on this and I’m prompting them to up their game.
       • Herodotus 3.1.1.2

         14 September 2023 at 10:20 am

         We had this govts petrol enquiry and how is that working especially in Northland and in Ak ?we were told that there was no reason for banks to increase interest rates… they did?

         inflation is trending down yet many of us have recieved pay increases 1-4% over the last few years – and that doesn’t take into account interest rates.
         How about not screwing a very large portion of the pop who are going backwards FAST !!!

         This govt received their reward in the handling of covid now they are receiving their reward for doing NOTHING that can been seen as a country progressing only regression and an economy built on growth thru immigration and feasted rebuilds ( the same disasters that we were told should be excluded from GDP and yet now they want to include it when it promotes growth) they are 🤬useless and now we have on offer not much better from the alternatives!!!

         Reply
   • Descendant Of Smith 3.2

     14 September 2023 at 12:20 pm

     Though family in Victoria tell me food is more expensive than when thy were living here as is eating out etc which is quite significantly higher. Lower rent for a better quality house makes the biggest difference for them along with the employer contribution to super.

     Reply
   • Mike the Lefty 3.3

     14 September 2023 at 7:52 pm

     My daughter who has been living in Australia for nearly two years reckons its a myth about everything being cheaper in Australia. Apart from petrol and some supermarket items, nearly everything else is lot dearer , she says

     Reply
4. Blazer 4

   14 September 2023 at 8:21 am

   Christopher Luxon-the 'little engine,that…couldn't'.

   -can't supply modelling that his tax plans rely on

   -can't say where he will make spending cuts

   -can't say how he will increase productivity

   -can't say whether he will work with NZ First

   -can't release the terms for the Ufindell report

   -can't release details of fiscal policy..yet

   -can't be expected to perform in a national debate

   -can't say whether he will lower rents on his 7 houses

   -can't say how he will 'grow' the economy

   So Mr 'I ran an airline'……couldn't run a …bath!

   Reply
   • Graeme 4.1

     14 September 2023 at 10:32 am

     We might find out soon that he wasn't much good at running that airline either…

     Reply
5. PsyclingLeft.Always 5

   14 September 2023 at 9:44 am

   Not a single business has made a substantial donation to the Labour Party since the start of 2021.

   Well…kinda unsurprising really. As Labour …

   Former Labour Party President Mike Williams said Labour's lack of business donations is not unexpected.

   "Businesses prefer the National Party because Labour does things like increases the minimum wage, abolish the 90 day rule, brings in fair pay agreements."

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/497947/no-significant-donations-to-the-labour-party-from-businesses-in-over-two-years

   Of course NZ Business didnt mind taking the Covid assistance $ Mega Millions……

   Which is part of the money…the Nats accuse Labour of spraying from a money hose.

   Hey give it back !!

   Reply
6. Ad 6

   14 September 2023 at 11:43 am

   Large black American shaman prepares to marry Norwegian princess.

   King Harald V gets the best case of 'Guess Who's Coming to Dinner' I've seen in a long time.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300970520/norwegian-princess-to-marry-american-selfprofessed-shaman

   Reply
7. Ric Stacey 7

   14 September 2023 at 11:55 am

   A review of Nationals house tax has been released this morning.

   “Our best estimate is that Nationals Foreign Buyer Tax would raise $210 million per year, compared to Nationals estimate of $740 million. This leaves a significant $530 million (71%) per year gap in the costing of the Foreign Buyer Tax and the wider Back Pocket Boost policy,Economists Sam Warburton, Nick Goodall, and Michael Reddell wrote in a review published on Wednesday at 10am.”

   Plenty more at

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300970492/nz-election-2023-live-nationals-plan-to-fund-tax-cuts-comes-up-short-economists-say

   Reply
   • Bearded Git 7.1

     14 September 2023 at 12:54 pm

     If National has screwed up the foreign buyers calculation to the tune of over half a billion dollars per year (!!) as several experts now seem to be saying, then this must call into question the calculations used for all of their financial forecasts.

     Reply
8. arkie 8

   14 September 2023 at 12:44 pm

   The planet cannot wait any longer:

   The Earth's life-support systems are facing greater risks and uncertainties than ever before, with most major safety limits already crossed as a result of planet-wide human interventions, according to a scientific study released on Wednesday.

   In a "health check" for the entire planet published in the Science Advances journal, an international team of 29 experts found that the Earth is now "well outside of the safe operating space for humanity" due to human activity.

   …

   Of the nine boundaries assessed, only ocean acidification, ozone depletion and airborne pollution – mainly soot-like particles – were judged to be still within safe limits The ocean acidification boundary, however, was close to being breached.

   The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, has risen to around 417 parts per million, significantly higher than the safe level of 350ppm.

   The current rate of species extinction is also estimated to be at least tens of times faster than the average rate over the past 10 million years, meaning the planet has already crossed the safe boundary for genetic diversity.

   Johan Rockström, the study's co-author and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said he hoped the world would see the findings as a wake-up call.

   "In my career I've never been sitting on so much evidence as today and can be so clear in our communication," Rockström said, adding that he was disappointed with the outcome of last week's United Nations Global Stocktake report, which will form the basis of the COP28 climate talks in Dubai later this year.

   "It is a complete failure …and it's a large risk… We're still following a pathway that takes us unequivocally to disaster."

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/497969/human-activity-jeopardising-earth-s-life-support-systems-study

   There is no room to delay any more, action is needed urgently. Party vote Green.

   Reply
9. Barfly 9

   14 September 2023 at 1:27 pm

   Apparently there are 26,000 properties in New Zealand owned by mega landlords I would love to see those compulsorily acquired by Whanau Ora – I don't think New Zealand as a society can afford mega landlords.

   Reply
   • KS 9.1

     14 September 2023 at 2:21 pm

     Interesting that Blackrock has been mentioned by the NZ government with regard to green energy. I wonder if Blackrock, and other companies such as Vanguard and State Street are interested in the single family housing market in NZ. There combined influences over the S&P 500 is circa 88% I think. RFK Jr is concerned they will cause issues for single families in the states. See link:

     https://watcher.guru/news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-warns-blackrocks-plan-to-gain-single-family-us-homes

     Who knows, maybe they are here inNZ already just hidden behind other companies

     Reply
     • Francesca 9.1.1

       14 September 2023 at 2:54 pm

       Could someone explain to me why we are going with Blackrock, whose investors will be expecting handsome profits, when Kiwisaver has 89.7 billion dollars

       And the Superfund has 58 billion

       This is actually not a rhetoric question .My grasp of economics and finance is zero

       Reply
       • UncookedSelachimorpha 9.1.1.1

         15 September 2023 at 12:20 am

         I agree. Getting private money to do this, allows rich individuals to extract profits from society. Using state money – everyone benefits.

         Insisting on private capital only, is driven by ideology – adhered to by Labour, National and Treasury.

         Reply
       • Michael P 9.1.1.2

         15 September 2023 at 7:33 am

         Disclaimer: Most of what follows is my opinion, some of it informed some not so much.

         All investors expect handsome profits. In regards to Kiwisaver, there are a multitude of different providers and I'm assuming that the individual providers decide where to invest their clients funds. However, I'm guessing that a large proportion, if not most of the 89.7 billion and 58 billion you mentioned are probably already managed by Blackrock in some shape or form. ASB, ANZ etc are all in various partnerships with them and the fact that they are major shareholders in a large proportion of global insurance companies, banks, fund management companies, investment banks and so on means that they will inevitably be involved with many of our financial entities and have a certain amount of shareholder power in these companies

         Blackrock is massive, I think they manage up to 10 TRILLION dollars in assets or around a quarter of the entire world's money.. I know at one stage they had assets under management totaling 40% of the GDP of the USA.

         The 3 biggest asset management firms in the world are Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street. Blackrock owns State Street, Vanguard is the largest shareholder in Blackrock……..

         So, in my opinion because I don't know, I would imagine that 2billion is absolute peanuts to them. It is worthwhile though because they get to be investors in the first country to have 100% renewable energy plus they can throw some money at startup companies involved in innovative and new 'green' technologies and if one of these little startups comes up with something amazing, well guess who the biggest shareholder is….

         Many people might suggest that Blackrock has maybe some other, shadowy agendas going on and they are up to no good somehow. It would be hard to argue against that for me, mainly because I just don't trust anybody or anything in the whole 'making money from money' financial economy.

         In any case, Blackrock already own a huge chunk of the world, including a chunk of NZ, so another 2 billion of ownership in NZ green initiatives doesn't mean much in that sense, but could be great for NZ in terms of clean renewable energy, battery technologies, gender ideologies… Oh ! Did I say that…..

         Reply
         • Francesca 9.1.1.2.1

           15 September 2023 at 8:21 am

           Thanks Uncooked and MP

           I found this from Sam Stubbs

           https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/business/350059005/heres-what-2b-blackrock-deal-means-kiwisaver

           Reply
10. ianmac 10

    14 September 2023 at 1:57 pm

    Increased costs with no outputs say Luxon and others. This makes it so hard for small business owners and farmers to get ahead so they say.

    I want to know:

    1. What are the specifics of these "pointless" impositions?
    2. How many have been introduced in the last 6 years?

    (I have asked a few people and can't get any real credible answers.)

    Reply
    • AB 10.1

      14 September 2023 at 3:33 pm

      At a guess "pointless impositions" might include: minimum wage increases, pay equity, Matariki holiday, clean car fee for high-polluting vehicles, extensions to maternity leave, managed immigration that kept the labour market tight for a while (though easing now). Probably plenty of others I have forgotten.

      Pointlessness is in the eye of the beholder. All these things are pointless if your objective is increasing business profitability, then calling that the "strong economy" from which all good things will spring like flowers from the desert (some day). Part of National’s schtick is in manufacturing the idea that there is a single, shared national interest around this objective. Who wants their country to have a ‘weak’ economy?

      Reply
      • ianmac 10.1.1

        14 September 2023 at 3:44 pm

        NZ is apparently the easiest country in the World to set up business and to do business. I would ask business owners and politicians which "pointless" impositions are they going to cancel. Srely from your list above it would be tricky to cancel any of those, unless it is just a ploy. I asked a farm manager for one new imposition that bothered her. She could think of nothing.

        Reply
      • Adrian 10.1.2

        14 September 2023 at 4:24 pm

        Bernard Hickey in a the side bar Feeds story on this page says taking the bans off overseas buyers would result in an immediate 20% leap in house and land prices. That would result in our best, brightest, and youngest evacuating to Aussie and further afield in a heartbeat. How do I know, because my under 30 kids have told me. Fuck you Luxon.

        Reply
11. Macro 11

    15 September 2023 at 8:53 am

    Remember the Nat slogan "stop waving goodbye to your loved ones"? Empty words as we know full well. Our family and mokopuna left the following year as their employment disappeared after Nats took the reins of govt. Nats = bullshit artists.
    Oops somehow got an extra letter in my username. My apologies 😟

    [fixed – Incognito]

    Reply

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