Open Mike 14/08/2017

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 14th, 2017 - 49 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

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49 comments on “Open Mike 14/08/2017”

  1. swordfish 1

    Indications from UMR’s Stephen Mills & Politik’s Richard Harman (via”National Party sources”), that both Labour’s & National’s Internal polling (post-Graham / Clendon / Turei resignations) suggest – Greens polling around or sub-5%

  2. swordfish 2

    The English-Ardern match-up in the Preferred PMs is looking very 1999.

    (English 28 / Ardern 26 – Numbers rounded 2–8 August 2017 Newshub Reid Research)

    In both cases – 1999 & 2017 – both Main Party Leaders were / are scoring in the 20s, with the Tory PM ever so slightly ahead.

    Wild Bill English = almost exactly mirroring the contours of Shipley’s leadership ratings during the first half of the 99 Election campaign.

    Cindy Ardern = actually around 7 points up on Helen Clark at the same point in the campaign.

    Just over a Month out from the 1999 Election, Clark was on 19% / Shipley on 27% in the New Zealand Election Study’s 5-day Preferred PM rolling average. Despite a bit of movement over the next few weeks, Shipley generally maintained her lead (albeit varying in size), before slumping a little during the final 2 weeks of the campaign after the first head-to-head debate, with Clark briefly eclipsing Shipley. But the effects were short-lived – by the final Poll just before Election Day. the two were neck-and-neck, each on 24%.

    Over the whole campaign, Clark fluctuated between 19 and 26, averaging about 23 / Shipley remained largely in the 20s, averaging around 25.

    The One News Colmar Brunton Polls suggested a very similar pattern of support for the two – Shipley maintaining her lead for most of the campaign

    Just goes to show – winning the Preferred PM isn’t necessarily a prerequisite for a Left victory – (although Ardern may well end on top)

    • Timbeau 2.1

      Anyone know when the next Roy Morgan poll comes out? Must be due soon.

    • North 2.2

      The preferred PM thing was always a fat old stroke-fest. Sure it shows ‘something’ but what exactly ? Probably nothing more than the power of incumbency and the power of political marketing. And an opportunity for the loathsome Gower to flatulate, gnash, and eject spittle.

    • Nic the NZer 2.3

      Comparing Shipley and English poll histories seems a bit foolish. Shipley was a rightwing tack on the tail of a government which had already issued the ‘mother of all budgets’. English take over from Key (and Keys history) has been rather more subtle than in the publics face.

      Arderne seems very popular but it doesn’t look like history repeating at all.

      • swordfish 2.3.1

        On Party support, this Election’s more like 2005 (with a slight hint of 2008) – but strictly in terms of Preferred PM stats = looking very 1999 (wouldn’t read any more into my comment than that)

  3. NZ Herald misleading headlines:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11903486

    “Treaty Warning over Labour’s Water Tax”…. said by National. Maori say no issue, I am sure we can sort it out.

    Some of this is getting quite ridiculous, can they try for balanced headline? Even the writing (by a Ms Audrey Young) was biased… first half all about how it would be the biggest issue ever, and it is not until the very end of the article that we get a view from the someone representing Maori views, which was that there was no issue and the whole article was misleading (almost actual quote)

    • Muttonbird 3.1

      Not to mention it’s not a tax. The Nats and their adoring media have framed it as a tax yet this is actually a charge for a commodity – water.

      • You_Fool 3.1.1

        The funny thing is, when you frame it the way Labour and The Greens actually state it, most people agree with it: That corporations shouldn’t be able to sell “Pure NZ water” with out paying something for it. At the least they should be made to pay for leveraging off the “pure NZ” image, let alone big users paying for what they take and pollute

      • Fairly typical lying from the RWNJs then.

    • can they try for balanced headline?

      Of course not – that would give the Left an advantage over the right-wing.

      Biased writing in favour of National is pretty much normal for our MSM.

  4. Tautoko Mangō Mata 4

    The latest Jonathan Pie SHOWDOWN: North Korea vs Donald Trump.

  5. Snuffling with a head cold. Bit of a pain. I had to give up adding a fan to the server after sneezing on the inside of the box (who knows what that will do to the circuitry?)

    People might like to look at this rather spiky graph of the page views for the last 30 days, and contemplate what this week will bring.

    Notice that this weekend was larger than most of the first two weeks of the 30 days 🙂

    • weka 5.1

      There has to be a joke in there about something going viral.

      Do page views normally bounce around like that pre-election?

      • DoublePlusGood 5.1.1

        Well, they probably do if we have as much drama as the last fortnight!

      • greywarshark 5.1.2

        Page views bouncing – It’s the sneeze effect.

        Watch for bugs in your system lprent. You seem to have proofed it against surges pre-election. Touch wood.

      • lprent 5.1.3

        Yep. Whenever there is a political ‘event’. We find people coming here to argue about it.

        It is why I have to do the capacities based on peak loads rather than normal loads because it isn’t uncommon to have loads up to 4x ‘normal’.

    • Eco maori 5.2

      That’s awesome to see people looking for real people’s opinion and information and not just read and be conned by the big MSN that’s why I found this site

  6. Maui 6

    Boot Camps ? Nah, send them to Botany Bay where they will have the fear of Malcolm put into them.

  7. Paaparakauta 7

    Hey Kelvin, go easy with the peroxide.You look like something out out of the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
    I don’t think most Northern Maori voters think of themselves that way ..

  8. Ad 8

    On the one hand, neither Labour nor the Greens have much skin in the game in any of our regions.

    On the other hand, if they are really going to “wade” into the broad water argument, here’s how hard any nitrogen-lowering policy is going to be.

    Horizons Regional Council were taken to court over their One Plan that would have really restricted farmers’ application of different minerals and chemicals. The Council lost, and now they have to eat it:

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1708/S00191/intensive-farming-decision-results-in-one-plan-change.htm

    Horizons Regional Councillors moved a recommendation for Council to investigate partial One Plan change options.

    Horizons chair Bruce Gordon says the decision was made today because the committee was clearly informed that, following an Environment Court’s ruling, if farmers had to meet the current nitrogen leaching numbers in the One Plan a significant number of businesses would no longer be viable.

    “Council is responsible to its community and I want to reassure farmers that while our intention is to improve water quality, we are unified in not wanting to bankrupt multiple businesses. As a result, the Strategy and Policy committee have recommended Council instructs officers to prepare options for a change to the One Plan’s policies and rules around intensive agriculture,” says Mr Gordon.

    “In the meantime, new application forms and guidance material for applicants seeking intensive land use consents under the One Plan have been produced as required by the Court’s decision.”

    The Environment Court’s decision followed declaratory proceedings by Environmental Defence Society (EDS) and Wellington Fish and Game. Council officers will be meeting with EDS and Fish and Game representatives later this month to clarify their expectations.”

    I have a feeling that Jacinda will resile from irrigated water charges, and just stick to bottled raw water for export. It’s a fight she doesn’t need, in a constituency with no political upside whatsoever.

    • This is what happens when you allow large numbers of people to create businesses that are only viable if they’re given free reign to pollute lakes and waterways. By the time people start kicking back against having polluted waterways, there’s a sizable constituency dependent on continuing the pollution. As usual, the parties of the left will get stuck with the responsibility for cleaning up the Tories’ mess and copping the flak for it.

      • Ad 8.1.1

        “The parties of the left” would actually have to win an election first.

        I think Labour’s water policy would be improved if it focused more on the “polluter pays” principle for agriculture, not just on the price of water as input.

        That way the political heat would fall on the regional councils and not the government.

      • greywarshark 8.1.2

        PM Too true.

    • if farmers had to meet the current nitrogen leaching numbers in the One Plan a significant number of businesses would no longer be viable.

      Exactly as it should be as they’re obviously not viable businesses.

      Council is responsible to its community and I want to reassure farmers that while our intention is to improve water quality, we are unified in not wanting to bankrupt multiple businesses.

      Translation: Some of us want the rate payers and future generations to continue subsidising the farmers.

    • Gabby 8.3

      Had the Council been trying to get farmers to clean up pre-existing messes as well as their own?

  9. Trump is a nazzi white supremist loving arsehole imo.

    • McFlock 9.1

      It’s fascinating watching his speech about the ramming attack – the bits where he’s reading the prepared statement like a 7year old giving a class presentation, and the bits where he goes off script and speaks directly to the camera.

      Pretty clear which side he’s on, the shit.

  10. Eco maori 10

    Now that everyone in the world is figuring out that margarine is a processed food and worst for one’s health than butter .I predict the price of milk solids to hit 8 NZ dollars kg ie shortage of butter in Europe so the farmer could afford to pay abit more for the environment

  11. Macro 11

    Action on Karangahake Mountain today.


    This is a protest against mining on DOC land. A grandmother is being arrested.
    These people need your support.

    • NewsFlash 12.1

      Nationals only method of creating economic growth, and where’s the infrastructure to support it?

      • AB 12.1.1

        Immigration, dairy, tourism. The Nat’s 3-card trick. Creating a chaotic, unsustainable mess to get a sugar-high of top-line growth from a which a few are doing very well.

  12. greywarshark 13

    Warm news from often cold Dunedin. Rah – support locally owned successful businesses, set up local investment bonds.

    CHOCOLATE – doh!

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201854622/new-plans-for-chocolate-company-in-dunedin
    New plans for chocolate company in Dunedin
    From Morning Report, 8:20 am today
    Listen duration 3′ :56″

    Jim O’Malley unveilled his plans for a new publicly-owned chocolate company in Dunedin. He says when the lights go out at Cadbury on March 31, he wants the new company to hit the ground running.

    • McFlock 13.1

      What’s wrong with chocolate?

      We have the skillsets, might as well try to keep them here and do something with them.

      • greywarshark 13.1.1

        What’s your point McFlock. Are you trying for an argument where there isn’t one. Go down to the gym if that’s what you want. Here we are exercising our brains.

  13. adam 14

    It’s a few days old now, but I thought this site would have been all over this fine piece by Frank Macskasy .

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/08/09/msm-catches-up-on-unemployment-stats-rort/

    As you know, looking after the interests of working people and all that.

    I would ave thought, that 11% underemployment was a conservative figure as well, and quite a frightening one for a Government.

    The other thing I would have thought was maybe the party who uses the name for working people and their endeavours, would have been jumping up and down about this.

    Except it’s all personality politics. Same crap, different packaging, and the consumers are lapping it up.

    • NewsFlash 14.1

      The stats from the bureau of stats are completely distorted and are of little value, Nats have manipulated the criteria involved to produce positive outcomes, to make THEM look good, but it’s all catching up with them now, you can’t help not seeing the homeless, no matter where you live, something you didn’t see less than 10 years ago.

    • Hardly ever go over to the TDB – can’t comment effectively because of the over-ambitious moderation and spam trap so I simply don’t bother.

      • Macro 14.2.1

        Same – but over the past couple of days there have been some particularly good articles well worth the read.
        I do find some of the comments a little OTT – but each to their own.

  14. AsleepWhileWalking 15

    Just read Nats new investments in childre mental health. School based – yea…what about housing based? Basic needs met? That kind of shit.

    • garibaldi 15.1

      Can someone please tell the Nats it would be better to eliminate poverty (if they are serious about mental health) than to superficially tinker with mental health targeting?

  15. Penny Bright 16

    Serious question.

    WHICH PARTS OF THE RADIO NZ CHARTER ARE BEING BREACHED (in your opinion)BY USING PAID PR SHILL$ AS ‘POLITICAL COMMENTATORS’
    ON RNZ NEWS & CURRENT AFFAIRS?

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/about/charter

    The Radio New Zealand CharterThe Radio New Zealand Charter Te Tūtohinga o Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa

    English

    The Radio New Zealand Amendment Act received Royal assent from 1 April 2016.

    The legislation makes some amendments to the Radio New Zealand Charter.

    The updated Radio New Zealand Charter is below.

    The Charter is an important document which sets out our operating principles.

    It defines what we do so that everyone – staff, listeners and other stake-holders – can easily understand our objectives and what we are expected to provide for the New Zealand taxpayer.

    The Charter is reviewed every five years. Radio New Zealand Amendment Act 2016.

    Charter and Principles of Radio New Zealand

    Purpose

    (1) As an independent public service broadcaster, the public radio company’s purpose is to serve the public interest.

    (2) Freedom of thought and expression are foundations of democratic society and the public radio company as a public service broadcaster plays an essential role in exercising these freedoms.

    (3) The public radio company fosters a sense of national identity by contributing to tolerance and understanding, reflecting and promoting ethnic, cultural, and artistic diversity and expression.

    (4) The public radio company provides reliable, independent, and freely accessible news and information.

    Delivery

    (5) In achieving its purpose, the public radio company must endeavour to provide services of the highest quality, which—

    (a) are predominantly and distinctively of New Zealand:

    (b) inform, entertain, and enlighten the people of New Zealand:

    (c) are challenging, innovative, and engaging:

    (d) foster critical thought, and informed and wide-ranging debate:

    (e) stimulate, support, and reflect the diversity of cultural expression, including drama, comedy, literature, and the performing arts:

    (f) stimulate, support, and reflect a wide range of music, including New Zealand composition and performance:

    (g) reflect New Zealand’s cultural identity, including Māori language and culture:

    (h) provide awareness of the world and of New Zealand’s place in it:

    (i) provide comprehensive, independent, accurate, impartial, and balanced regional, national, and international news and current affairs:

    (j) provide programmes which balance special interest with those of wide appeal, recognising the interests of all age groups:

    (k) contribute towards intellectual and spiritual development:

    (l) include an international service to the South Pacific in both English and Pacific languages:

    (m) take account of services provided by other broadcasters:

    (n) take advantage of the most effective means of delivery:

    (o) preserve and archive broadcasting material of historical interest.

    8A Principles of operation

    (1) The public radio company must, in fulfilling its Charter, exhibit a sense of social responsibility by—

    (a) having regard to the interests of the community in which it operates; and

    (b) endeavouring to accommodate or encourage those interests when able to do so.

    (2) The public radio company must, in fulfilling its Charter, ensure that it is not influenced by the commercial interests of other parties.

    (3) The public radio company must, in fulfilling its Charter, ensure that it operates in a financially responsible manner and, for this purpose, that it—

    (a) prudently manages its assets and liabilities; and

    (b) endeavours to ensure—

    (i) its long-term financial viability; and

    (ii) that it acts as a successful going concern.

    8B Commercial-free broadcasting

    (1) The public radio company must, in fulfilling its Charter, provide its services in a commercial-free manner.

    (2) Subsection (1) is subject to subsection (3).

    (3) The public radio company may provide 1 or more of the services specified in subsection

    (4), if the provision of the service or services—

    (a) is consistent with its role as a public broadcaster; and

    (b) does not impact adversely on the provision of its services under its Charter; and

    (c) is a fair and appropriate use of public funds.

    (4) Subsection (3) applies to the following:

    (a) providing media services to countries outside New Zealand, other than Radio New Zealand International or any radio services that might replace, in whole or in part, Radio New Zealand International:

    (b) authorising other providers of media services (whether by sale or licensing) to broadcast or publish content that has already been broadcast or published in a commercial-free manner by the public radio company:

    (c) arranging for providers of delivery platforms to provide access to live broadcasts of the content of the public radio company, but only if—

    (i) the content is free to access on the public radio company’s services; and

    (ii) the content is commercial-free, whether or not the delivery platforms are free to access; and

    (iii) any advertising or sponsorship on the delivery platforms is not expressly or impliedly presented as advertising or sponsorship carried or endorsed by the public radio company (other than announcements of the public radio company’s own services).

    (5) In this section,—

    commercial-free

    (a) means—

    (i) free to access; and
    (ii) without advertising and sponsorship; but
    (b) to avoid doubt, does not include announcements by the public radio company of its own services

    delivery platform—

    (a) means any method of transmitting audio, visual, or audiovisual content; and
    (b) includes (but is not limited to) Internet sites, applications, and software.
    ……”
    #SackThePRHacks

    • In Vino 16.1

      And I thought I was a conversation-killer..

      Sorry Penny. I actually agree, but my eyes are dim and I cannot see. I have not brought my specs with me.

  16. Nic the NZer 17

    Have seen many comments repeating that Jim Boldger has disavowed neo-liberalism. Somehow despite saying that on radio he seems less keen to consider turning over a new leaf however.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=36568
    Write up of a few week old discussion involving Mr Boldger.

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