Open mike 15/09/2022
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6:00 am, September 15th, 2022 - 22 comments
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- Treasury warns deeper recession worsening Budget deficit
The gift that keeps giving: David Seymour has now opened a split in the coalition over the future of National’s promise to build a new medical school. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / TheKakaKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...1 hour ago - Weekly Roundup 22-November-2024
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Record Numbers: The Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, which began at the tip of the North, and the tail of the South, on 11 November, culminated outside Parliament on Tuesday, 19 November 2024, in one of the largest demonstrations in New Zealand’s political history.ACCORDING TO TE ARA, the Ministry of Culture ...3 hours ago - The Rush To Blame “The Activists”
Activists are such easy scapegoats. The right and center have been conditioned for decades to roll their eyes at all protests. The left are easily aggravated over students leading movements they see as belonging to grownups, who have more important concerns like the economy and whether the trains come on ...3 hours ago - Cutting Through An Inundation of Dipshit Racists
Hi,Watching New Zealand from afar offers a strange perspective. It can be a good thing — distance from Aotearoa helped keep me sane while I reported on abuse at New Zealand’s biggest megachurch over the course of a year. It helps fuel my silly podcast. But it can also be ...4 hours ago - This is bad news
The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...5 hours ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances: Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...14 hours ago - Chicken Kiev
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...18 hours ago - The year is 2024 and it’s 1984
This is written in response to the highly significant open letter from a group of economists that was today addressed to Christopher Luxon. The year is 2024, and it’s 1984. The country is reeling from a record Olympic medal gold haul, while the globe grapples with the choice of the ...18 hours ago - The IPCA has failed
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...22 hours ago - Thursday 21 November 2024
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...23 hours ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
I spoke to former Productivity Chair Nana this morning about the letter he and a group of other economists sent to PM Christopher Luxon to urge the Government to urgently suspend cuts to spending and investment for the sake of the economy, struggling businesses and the wellbeing of vulnerable ...1 day ago
- ACT’s Astroturfing & A Co-ordinated Attack on Te Pati Māori
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...1 day ago - Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for stabilizing temperatures
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- Economists call on PM to suspend budget cuts for the sake of the economy
Nicola Willis’ budget cuts are under fire from economists for having no clear rationale and worsening the recession. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 21: The news at ...1 day ago
- The end of policing by consent
National has appointed a new police commissioner. And he explicitly rejects policing by consent: Asked if he subscribed to policing by consent, he said he did not. “I don’t talk about policing by consent. I talk about trust and confidence, and it is fundamentally important that the police have ...2 days ago
- The Treaty Principles Bill: A Who’s Who
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- 27% of kids going hungry, up from 21% in a year
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- Young Maori take over
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...2 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Aftermath
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Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...3 days ago
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On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...7 days ago
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The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...1 week ago
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Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...1 week ago - Government must vote down ACT Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights
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The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
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Louise Upston has revealed her diminished vision for vulnerable youth against a backdrop of snubbed advice, scrapped priorities, shifted goal posts and thousands more children projected to fall into poverty. ...21 hours ago
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National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...21 hours ago
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When the Government says it has reduced the number of people in emergency housing, what it means is it is stopping people from accessing it in the first place. ...24 hours ago
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The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...1 day ago
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- Release: Call for Palestine recognition by NZ, Australian and Canadian MPs
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Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
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...1 week ago
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Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
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The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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Our Future is NOW. Fossil fuel is becoming increasingly scarce (fossil fuel fuckwits can FUCK OFF with thinking Antarctica ! )…and the tragedy ongoing with Russian/Ukraine is stark evidence as to how vulnerable we ALL are to war and power/fuel disruption.
There is never going to be a better time…than NOW. Just start….
Exactly Patricia. (and Im sorry to you for my expletives ?, but there is a level of frustration here )
However, I really think getting to work right NOW would have so many Positives for NZ in particular. Future Proofing, Climate change recognition !, Innovative Skills development, Employment ! etc,….
I honestly cant see any down side to this.
Grant Robertson outlines issues with the macro economic position,both forward (an economic think big such as infrastructure debt) prior to the release of GDP figures today.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/new-zealand-economy-%E2%80%93-case-optimism
The phony war is over,as we need to spend on what makes a sustainable economy more efficient,and productive.
Tax cuts
More roads
Boot camps for young offenders
Go National !
/sarc
Big shoutout to Silver Fern Farms and Scott Technology for committing huge investment to full automation of all Lamb carcass breakdowns. $13m high tech investment.
One less high risk labour demand.
Well done the 2 Dunedin-based firms.
If you think it's about worker safety I have bridge you might be interested in😉
The de-risk is from skilled labour supply shortage.
luckily there will be soon some unemployed people in that region clamoring for a job.
Aargh right you are
GDP came in at 1.7,higher then expected.The productive economy shrunk as the effects of covid reduced head counts,and fuel increases drove high prices in transport and warehousing to artificial highs.
Health care etc showed a rise.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-june-2022-quarter/
All that storm damage will help the next quarter GDP.
Will we see growth even when house construction flattens? Will be a great hinge moment for us.
The figures get somewhat distorted in manufacturing as Marsden point shut.
Construction was down in those stats,mostly in civil and heavy construction,there will be a small bounce as builders try to finish ongoing work in progress.
There needs to be some contraction further in housing to reduce costs,and supply constraints within our needs.
Your interpretation doesn’t seem likely as the sole or even major cause for transport & warehousing variations.
If you look at Table 3 in the spreadsheet it becomes a bit more obvious just how much effect the lock downs have had.
March 2021 in Auckland we’d come out of lockdown. September we went back into one. It took out Jan / Feb. Jun Q this year and last year just happened to be when we didn’t have that many lockdowns.
$ Millions
Mar 2021 Q 2,376
Jun 2021 Q 2,707
Sep 2021 Q 2,590
Dec 2021 Q 2,561
Mar 2022 Q 2,505
Jun 2022 Q 2,998
There may be a fuel / cost /price effect this last quarter. But it isn’t apparent over the lock down noise. Transport etc gets major hits from lockdowns mostly because it limits access into and out of Auckland.
Transport was down 20% 2021,increased 15% 2020 to date.Freight rates had also increased substantive prior to the remedy.The main drivers in the 1/4 are air transport,and transport support services such as warehousing,fuel.
I'd point out that internal and external air transport also markedly increased in volume when most of the lockdowns ceased in the June quarter. Consequently they massively increased in value in the GDP for that sector.
You'd have to look at a measure of volume – something like air-km or km travelled to see if the price had increased.
You have to look at it in the context of where it was as well and the natural variations without disruptions.
So what was the steady state variations prior to covid-19 disruptions?https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-june-2019-quarter/
Table 3 Transport, postal and warehousing
Mar-18 Q 2,813
Jun-18 Q 2,848
Sep-18 Q 2,854
Dec-18 Q 2,942
Mar-19 Q 2,979
Jun-19 Q 3,032
In this context Jun 2022 Q = 2,998 doesn't look out of place.
Especially when you add in 3 years of monetary inflation, changes in the mix of services in the sectors, and changes in costs.
But the lack of scale of variation in a pre-covid era compared to the covid era is a pretty striking indication that the June quarter to me simply indicates that the sector is most likely bouncing back to its pre-covid volumes with fewer lockdowns. Not that there is significant price or cost inflation in a few cost components of a wide sector.
Using Occam, you'd need to show some volume evidence to indicate that it isn't just the economy returning to normal levels.
Better flows in the annual data,and remembering the march flows also include huge ag volumes .
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/transport-sales-increase-in-june-2022-quarter/
There is some distortion with the lockdowns red in 67 days march quarter vs 13 in june,which affected PP etc,limited in freight intercity.
Trounced on the battlefield so cowardly Russia resorts to type and wages war on civilians and critical infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1570163710358065153
The Russian army has used the Kh-22 missiles to conduct a strike against Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih as a result of which hydraulic structures had been damaged, reports head of the Dnipro region Valentin Reznichenko.
“Massive missile strike against Kryvyi Rih. Russians dropped seven Kh-22 cruise missiles from aircraft of strategic aviation. They hit objects of critical and transport infrastructure. There’s been serious damage done to hydraulic structures. As of now, no victims have been reported,” he wrote in a post on his Telegram channel.
According to Reznichenko, several districts of Kryvyi Rih were left without water following the attack. Currently, emergency services and crews are working on fixing the damage.
The missile strikes have destroyed a dam, reports Ukraine’s broadcaster Suspilne, citing local citizens. Ukrainian news agency UNIAN and Telegram channel Ukraine Now both report that as a result the water level of the river Inhulets, Kherson region, has risen by two-three metres. Telegram channel Operativno ZSU claims that the water level has risen by five-six metres.
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/09/14/water-level-of-ukraines-river-inhulets-rises-after-russia-strikes-hydraulic-structures-of-kryvyi-rih-news
There will be a long catalogue of Russian war crimes. It is just pure spite from Putin, who resents the fact that Ukrainians freely elected a democratic leader who isn't a puppet of the Kremlin
Imagine if Trump had been in power over the period. "We will give you weapons and help with sophisticated defence systems. Um….. but first find us some dirt on Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi and hunter Biden…"
And Congress would have universally said what was happening was terrible, all those Ukrainian deaths, the threat to the world. Impeachment processes would have been mounted against that withholding of assistance and Congress would vote, (well one side) that Trump had done nothing wrong.