Open mike 15/10/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 15th, 2021 - 147 comments
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147 comments on “Open mike 15/10/2021 ”

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  1. Dennis Frank 1
    15 October 2021 at 6:15 am

    Could the judiciary become part of the solution? It's always been part of the problem. Since the Greens have succeeded in using it as a lever to shift delinquent government, we have a reasonable basis for optimism:

    The Paris administrative tribunal ruling, seen by Reuters, ordered the French government to take all necessary measures to repair ecological damage and to prevent a further increase of carbon emissions by end-December 2022 at the latest.

    "Now the court system is becoming an ally in our fight against climate change," Greenpeace France director Jean-Francois Julliard told reporters.

    The court ruled that the government must respect its commitment to reducing French greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, but it did not impose fines or penalties to enforce its ruling.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-court-orders-state-honour-its-climate-commitments-oxfam-2021-10-14/

    • Gezza 1.1
      15 October 2021 at 6:27 am

      How has our judiciary been part of the problem, Dennis?

      I guess if someone like the Greens or Greenpeace took the government to court for failing to deliver on CC commitments the courts might decide to step in, but I suspect our judges would be wary of getting sucked into a battle with the government over climate change mitigation.

      • Dennis Frank 1.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 7:14 am

        Yeah, our judges have always been craven conformists, but the times may provoke a change as they have in France.

        France is one of several countries where environmental activists are using the judicial system to force their governments to take faster action against global warming.

        https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-court-orders-state-honour-its-climate-commitments-oxfam-2021-10-14/

        So it's up to our Greenies to see if they want to jump on this bandwagon. I'd be surprised if they wimped out. Does Russel Norman really want to seem inadequate in public??

        France's highest administrative court had already fined the state 10 million euros ($12 million) for failing to improve air quality. read more

        Elsewhere in Europe, Germany's top court ruled in April that the country must update its climate law by the end of next year to set out how it will cut carbon emissions down nearly to zero by 2050.

        In the Netherlands, the High Court ordered the government at the end of 2019 to step up its fight against climate change and to cut greenhouse gas emissions faster than planned.

        As regards your more general point, the judiciary is an institutional defender of the status quo. It is fixated on the past – hard-wired into that stance by usage of precedent in legal determination, right? So that's their default position. Their challenge is to get with the survival program. Become progressive.

        • Tricledrown 1.1.1.1
          15 October 2021 at 9:43 am

          France 12 million Euro's is nothing French politicians are shifter than our Dirty politicians. France is trying to re industrialise .

          Don't hold your breath for real change.France has a fascist underbelly that's more powerful than the greens.

      • KJT 1.1.2
        15 October 2021 at 2:23 pm

        Our courts in general, follow the principle that it is elected representatives job to make policy.

  2. Gezza 2
    15 October 2021 at 6:18 am

    .

    See how gently Elvira Longfin takes food from the feeding stick?
    https://i.imgur.com/6o2NgiK.gif

    This was a hard thing to film, perching precariously above her, videoing with my left hand, while trying to hold the feeding stick steady with my right one.

    We nature videographers sometimes have to suffer for our art. I slipped & fell into the water once. Thank heavens only pooks & ducks saw it! They didn't larf at me.

    • Gezza 2.1
      15 October 2021 at 10:35 am

      The last two days of grey skies, miserable rain, & bitterly evil cold wind from the South have disappeared at last.

      A perfect, warm, sunny Friday morning at the stream right now

      Just the ticket for taking it easy & taking it slow with Robert Marley & The Wailers.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yLuHE-82o40

    • mac1 2.2
      15 October 2021 at 1:39 pm

      Gezza, I am hosting my two proxy grandsons and we fed our eels with bacon skin and raw egg to attract them- lovely black eels, one very big. Great excitement. Did not play Diving Duck Blues to the grey ducks and the mallards that came looking…….

  3. Dennis Frank 3
    15 October 2021 at 6:23 am

    James Shaw: "We know that every single year, we are going to have to continue to take new and further actions on climate change because this is a multi-generational battle over the course of the next 30 years and beyond. It's going to involve every part of our economy, every part of our society."

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/james-shaw-humans-are-terribly-bad-at-dealing-with-climate-change/YAI7AAUWS6LMBLNHMAAFKV4DAQ/

    Do we really know that? I do, he does, but it doesn't work as a realistic generalisation. Inclusive thinking can make the user delusional!

    Imagine how he'd frame the point if he were able to communicate with typical kiwi males: "You guys oughta stop being as thick as pigshit. Learn to cope with reality instead, huh? Man up! You can't survive by trying to hide from the challenge."

    • Gezza 3.1
      15 October 2021 at 6:34 am

      Are there that many typical Kiwi males tho, these days?

      He may need to come up with particular angles for different audiences. Rugby players, surfers, skiers, farmers, metrosexuals, office workers, gamers etc?

    • RedLogix 3.2
      15 October 2021 at 6:45 am

      All very nice – but you do realise that in the past 20 odd years some 90% of the growth in CO2 has come from just one nation. You can parse the data however you like, by historic emission, by population, by GDP – whatever – but essentially until the PRC actually reduce that massive growth rate nothing much else will matter.

      By contrast the developed world has either slowed or reduced their emissions and are heading in the right direction. Rapid adoption of electrification and green hydrogen over the next two decades will accelerate this improvement – that shift is firmly underway.

      In the meantime the developing world is where the demand growth lies and for the moment coal is still their cheapest option. Until we're willing to address that fact head-on the trends will not change enough to alter the outcomes.

      • Cricklewood 3.2.1
        15 October 2021 at 6:57 am

        If the world were actually serious about climate change by far the best use of funds in regards reducing emmisions would be getting clean energy projects up and running across the developing world…

      • garibaldi 3.2.2
        15 October 2021 at 7:16 am

        Bear in mind that much of Chinas rapid CO2 growth comes from the silly bloody West transferring most of their business to China because it was cheaper. It's very easy to blame China for our folly.

        • RedLogix 3.2.2.1
          15 October 2021 at 7:48 am

          The CCP ran a policy of undercutting the West – primarily by using capital as a tool for employment and endless debt to subsidise loss making companies.

          The $300b or so of losses around Evergrande for example will be effectively subsidised by breakup of the entity and the disposal of the assets to a variety of state and private owners – all funded with new debt. The problem gets kicked down the road except this time the foreign bond holders get shafted and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out how this will play out.

          Keep in mind that property constitutes more than 25% of their GDP – and the massive growth of their infrastructure and military – so it's not all been about exports. Still the West in it's turn took the view that "if goods do not cross borders, then armies will" and was fundamentally motivated to integrate the PRC into the global trade system as a path to avoid conflict. That these guys were the cheapest in the market was hard to ignore either.

          But yes the realisation that having such a large fraction of your supply chains locked up in a nation that now speaks to it's customer base with both open contempt and overt hostility is not smart. Much of the disruption we're seeing right now is a consequence of this realisation and the impact of COVID.

          • Nic the NZer 3.2.2.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 9:01 am

            Maybe somebody could introduce the Chinese to bankruptcy where debts go to be written down or even written off. I mean if its going to avert disaster I think they could be let in on the game.

            • mikesh 3.2.2.1.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 11:54 am

              The Chinese monetary arrangements are not the problem, rather it's the offshoring of output, by the USA, to a country which is greatly incentivised to 'catch up'. But then, the ‘American way of life is not negotiable’, and it is excess consumption that is the real driver.

          • Tricledrown 3.2.2.1.2
            15 October 2021 at 10:00 am

            The CCP don't have to play by the rules.What they have done is undermine all the countries with good labour ,safety ,environmental conditions of the developed world by undercutting everyone else.

            Foreign exchange has rolled in as they have monopolized production there is no real competition they can put prices up to finally make a profit.Using foriegn capital reserves to offer cheap loans for development and purchase of supply chains so they have control and a guaranteed market.

            Empire building.

            China can print its way out of trouble breaking up billionaires hoards seems to be the latest initiative so a collapse in the property market is no biggy for China.

            • RedLogix 3.2.2.1.2.1
              15 October 2021 at 1:31 pm

              Yes I'd not disagree much with that way of expressing the story either. It's a game they've played for much of the past 40 years and now COVID has ushered in the piper.

      • Dennis Frank 3.2.3
        15 October 2021 at 7:26 am

        Oh, I agree completely. The geopolitical angle is primary. Given that the UN can't do effective change-making, let's see if the talkfest Cop26 does any better. Until collaboration gets real at the top end, we don't have a prospect of solution.

        As regards Xi, I'm waiting for him to display leadership in this arena. He's done enough talking the right talk, so we await the right action! The 14 principles of Xi thought do contain a couple of Green principles, so we know he's been thinking along the right lines for a while now. Sure, the list reads like a namby-pamby recipe for Green stalinism if you want to be sceptical, but hey – he's a leftist. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping_Thought

        • RedLogix 3.2.3.1
          15 October 2021 at 8:00 am

          Xi Xinping – the new Red Emperor – has been compared to Napoleon III, Hitler and Stalin all sharing the common characteristic of an authoritarian strong-man leadership that disavows any form of democratic accountability whatsoever.

          You will note the complete absence of this on those 14 Points you linked to. He openly admires Mao Zedong and draws on that era for his own political legitimacy.

          That he's a Leninist-Marxist will of course win him many acolytes on the left outside of China – and The Standard has it's share of them – but again history wasn't kind to those who thought Stalin was a great leader either.

          Drawing a moral distinction between a progressive left wing politics that fundamentally speaks for the disadvantaged, and social authoritarianism which is another motivation altogether, is not a simple matter when they're so very prone to being conflated like this.

          • Dennis Frank 3.2.3.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 8:32 am

            Drawing a moral distinction between a progressive left wing politics that fundamentally speaks for the disadvantaged, and social authoritarianism which is another motivation altogether… they're so very prone to being conflated like this.

            Indeed. The political binary is our inherited tradition. It frames political discourse. As long as democracy proceeds on this structural basis the problem will persist. I'd hoped MMP would get folks out of that rut, but no, they're habituated. The Greens even allowed themselves to be framed as extreme leftists to prove that they're politically clueless. Unconsciously.

            What the conflation points to is the old issue of power corrupting. Green activists act in representation of the Green movement. When they get into parliament, their power warps them toward the establishment. When in Rome…

            Xi seems a nice grandfatherly kinda dude, so I view him with some hope for the future. That said, the power structure imposes such constraint upon his agency that such optimism may seem unrealistic. To what extent is his human nature corrupted by state power? Time will tell.

            • Gezza 3.2.3.1.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 11:02 am

              “Xi seems like a nice grandfatherly kinda dude…”

              My God, Dennis. Surely you jest?

              The guy has accumulated more personal power than Mao Zedong ever did & is utterly ruthless when dealing with his “enemies” & detractors, be they in Hong Kong or the PRC.

              If he seems a nice grandfatherly kinda dude to you then he’s way too inscrutable to your eyes.

              • Dennis Frank …
                15 October 2021 at 11:20 am

                Wasn't actually. True enough that his behaviour in the job does send that signal and I feel disgust at that too. Think of it as a double-sided coin, or like the moon – if the dark side always showed toward us rather than the bright. So it was via close observation that insight into his basic nature came to me. You know, reading his expression – emotional intelligence – and reading in between his lines for subtext.

                Did you notice his recent dictum to the Chinese people – that they must show kindness toward each other? Is that any different from Jacinda airing the same thought a year or two back? To the cynical the answer is probably yes due to assuming his pr is staged rather than authentic. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt even if it seems naive. If you want to advance the Jekyll & Hyde theory, yeah that could apply…

                • Gezza …
                  15 October 2021 at 1:42 pm

                  It famously seems very unlikely Xi Jinping is exhorting his Han Chinese settlers, police & truppen in Xinjiang province to be kind to the Uighurs. Altho they are claiming that they have recently loosened up having nipped non-conformity (aka "separatism & insurrection") in the bud, the locals, both Han & Uighur, are very reluctant to be seen talking to Western reporters.

                  Any that do so are reportedly almost immediately interviewd/interrogated by the police or security services, & show fear about conversing further with them afterward.

                  • Dennis Frank …
                    15 October 2021 at 2:25 pm

                    Oh indeed. I criticized that here last year more than a few times. Standard communism: alternative belief systems not allowed (Falun Gong, ethnic muslims & Tibetan buddhists). One wonders if trad Han spirituality gets tolerated either!

                    The regime's official line is that the concentration camps are for educating internees in Xi Jinping Thought. I imagine internees concentrate on the 14 principles. I wonder if the regime has measured the average time it takes for internees to learn them. Marxist/Leninist doctrine advocates efficiency, eh? Like a production line, spitting out like-minded robots so the next batch can be wheeled in. A century ago the western version of this became a management fad (Taylorism).

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 2:43 pm

                      One wonders if trad Han spirituality gets tolerated either!

                      The Maoists spent 20 years crushing it – so that's a no as well.

                      For an extra bonus point – in which 'rogue province' did it manage to survive?

                    • Dennis Frank …
                      15 October 2021 at 3:17 pm

                      Dunno, nor was it apparent in the wiki, on a quick scan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_China#People's_Republic_of_China

                      Which surprisingly, indicates way more official tolerance than I knew about:

                      Since 1978, the Constitution of the People's Republic of China guarantees "freedom of religion". Its article 36 states that:

                      Citizens of the People's Republic of China enjoy freedom of religious belief. No state organ, public organization or individual may compel citizens to believe in, or not to believe in, any religion; nor may they discriminate against citizens who believe in, or do not believe in, any religion. The state protects normal religious activities. No one may make use of religion to engage in activities that disrupt public order, impair the health of citizens or interfere with the educational system of the state. Religious bodies and religious affairs are not subject to any foreign domination.

                      “In the late 20th century there was a reactivation of the state cults devoted to the Yellow Emperor and the Red Emperor. In the early 2000s, the Chinese government became open especially to traditional religions such as Mahayana Buddhism, Taoism and folk religion, emphasising the role of religion in building a "Harmonious Society" (hexie shehui),[99] a Confucian idea.[100][101] The government founded the Confucius Institute in 2004 to promote Chinese culture. China hosted religious meetings and conferences including the first World Buddhist Forum in 2006 and the subsequent World Buddhist Forums, a number of international Taoist meetings and local conferences on folk religions. Aligning with Chinese anthropologists' emphasis on "religious culture",  the government considers these religions as integral expressions of national "Chinese culture".

                      “A turning point was reached in 2005, when folk religious cults began to be protected and promoted under the policies of intangible cultural heritage.  Not only were traditions that had been interrupted for decades resumed, but ceremonies forgotten for centuries were reinvented.

                      “Modern Chinese political leaders have been deified into the common Chinese pantheon."

                      That last bit is noteworthy. Has Xi ascended? Perhaps that happens posthumously…

        • Maurice 3.2.3.2
          15 October 2021 at 8:01 am

          Hilarious – A leftist …. thinking along the right lines.

          Anything is possible!

      • Gezza 3.2.4
        15 October 2021 at 10:18 am

        @RL. You might find this podcast interesting? I had a listen on me iPad while cooking dinner last night.

        China's now experiencing major power shutdowns nationwide, because Xi's short-sighted decision to cut coal imports from Oz without sourcing other suplliers first has given the PRC a major coal-shortage crisis. Paul Buchanan speculates this is why Xi's been banging the war drums so hard on Taiwan – it's a distraction.

        He also discusses the military mess China could find itself in if it tries to take Taiwan. He considers that it will in no way be a cakewalk, & explains why in some detail…

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_tMWS7CryY4&feature=emb_imp_woyt

        • Brigid 3.2.4.1
          15 October 2021 at 11:33 am

          Gezza Buchanan is a fool. China doesn't need to 'take' Taiwan.Taiwan is a province of China.

          It's a good idea to listen to those who live in China and have experienced life there for some time.

          You could listen to this video by an Italian who's been living in China for 22 years. He explains the so called power crises in China with a damned sight more authority than Buchanan claims to have.

          • RedLogix 3.2.4.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 1:04 pm

            Taiwan is a province of China.

            In much the same way NZ is still a 'state of the Australian Federation'.

            In my experience Taiwan and NZ both share a great deal more in common than most Kiwis would expect. Even incidentally down to having an indigenous Austronesian peoples who are the the direct genetic ancestors of our own.

            And suffice to say the longer Xi Xinping remains in power the more Taiwanese people become determined not to fall under the sway of his regime – as did the poor bloody Hong Kongers.

            • Brigid 3.2.4.1.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 5:38 pm

              "Taiwan is a province of China."

              Yes

              If it was a sovereign nation as New Zealand is it would have embassies of other sovereign nations on it's soil.

              It doesn't have.

              I wont bother to reply to your '..same way NZ is still a 'state of the Australian Federation'.' That's too utterly ridiculous for words.

              • RedLogix …
                15 October 2021 at 6:18 pm

                If it was a sovereign nation as New Zealand is it would have embassies of other sovereign nations on it's soil.

                Taiwan was widely recognised as an independent nation up until about the mid-1970's when the "One China" policy was broadly adopted as a dead-rat ruse to facilitate the opening up of Maoist China to world trade and development.

                Everyone understands that it is a facade – and one that is rapidly crumbling.

          • Gezza 3.2.4.1.2
            15 October 2021 at 1:09 pm

            You know there’s a native first nations people in Taiwan – formerly Formosa – till they were invaded by the Kuomintang’s Han Chinese, don’t you, Brigid?

            (Altho I wouldn’t be surprised to learn one or more Chinese Emperors invaded the island as well in the past.)

            Did you watch Buchanan in that video, or just rush to condemn him? I don’t usually just accept Buchanan’s view as an oracle. I ask because you haven’t mentioned ANY of the main things he spoke about at all. Hint: It’s not about whether or not Taiwan is a province of China.

            When you’ve watched his video, fully, can you let me know, thanks? 👍🏼 ❤️

            I might watch yours then. ☘

            • Brigid 3.2.4.1.2.1
              15 October 2021 at 5:51 pm

              This is what you wrote

              "China's now experiencing major power shutdowns nationwide, because Xi's short-sighted decision to cut coal imports from Oz without sourcing other suplliers first has given the PRC a major coal-shortage crisis. Paul Buchanan speculates this is why Xi's been banging the war drums so hard on Taiwan – it's a distraction.

              He also discusses the military mess China could find itself in if it tries to take Taiwan."

              That is what I replied to and offered a view from someone who actually fucking lives in China.

              I have no intention of listening to anything Buchanan has to say having never read anything that he's written that isn't simply shilling for the military industrial complex or mere speculation as you point out.

              Your 'if you watch mine I'll watch yours' is petty.

              Don't watch the video I offered. Remain ignorant. I couldn't give a damn.

              • Gezza …
                15 October 2021 at 7:27 pm

                Brigid! Temper temper! 😠

                For starters, Buchanan isn’t shilling for the military industrial complex at all in that podcast. As you would know if you were open-minded enuf to watch it or listen to it.

                He in fact even says it’s not guaranteed that the US would even come to Taiwan’s aid were the PRC to ever decide to invade to retake Taiwan. They’ve not actually committed themselves in writing to doing that in a treaty with Taipei.

                Buchanan discusses the likely situation of the Taiwan stand-alone defence posture & the existing military preparations of Taiwan for a possible PRC invasion.

                I’m open minded enuf to watch both Buchanan’s & your posted video of somone who actually fucking lives in China, as you so tastefully put it.

                I’ll watch it later, after dinner. See if it’s in any way relevant to the Selwyn Manning interview of Buchanan.

                But, I would note, he is unlikely to be approaching the exact same topic from the same angle as Buchanan. And also, that I have listened to Trump, who actually fucking lives in the USA. Should I therefore take what Trump says about America & Americans as more accurate than an outside serious student & thus expert on US politics & society?

              • Gezza …
                16 October 2021 at 6:37 am

                Ok Brigid, I’ve now had a chance to watch / listen to your Mr Ma’s YouTube soliloquy. Your guy goes on a bit of a long-winded “ramble through the bramble”, but I had a painting job to do so stuck with him until the end.

                He & both Buchanan agree that what is being hysterically reported in Western media about Chinese warplanes encroaching into Taiwanese airspace lately is actually not true. 


                Buchanan even takes the trouble in his interview with Selwyn Manning to point out that Taiwan’s self-declared Air Identification Zone is not it’s territorial airspace, but in fact largely encompasses International airspace and even includes some airspace over the PRC itself. China has a perfect right to operate its warplanes in these airspaces. 


                I note that Mr Ma(rio)’s explanation for the current rolling power shutdowns in China is that Chinese Industry, due to its continuing high levels of production, is in many places polluting more than the levels they have signed up internationally to limit themselves to; thus the industries are being restricted by the state from exceeding those limits by deliberate CCP policy to restrict power to the manufacturers. 

                This doesn’t seem to have occurred to Paul Buchanan (who admits he’s speculating that the PRC is now not importing enuf coal from Oz to power their current levels of industrial output) & sounds entirely plausible. 
                I noted also Mr Ma’s claims:
                1. The internet in China is not blocked from US news content as is frequently reported in the West. Fox News, CNN, MSNBC (all 7 of the main US news channels) are readily available to view on the net by any and all Chinese English speakers.
                2. China has had the MOST SUCCESSFUL Covid-19 policy of anywhere in the world. They have essentially eliminated it from all provinces. When they DO get cases they immediately lockdown the whole city or affected area & eliminate it. (This sounds plausible to me.)
                3. Reports by Western media that people in the PRC are not allowed to criticise their government are not true. He states that Chinese social media sites (understandable only to Mandarin-speakers) are full of criticisms & complaints about their local & central governments’ perceived shortcomings. However he does also state that they are not allowed to “cause instability” eg by calling for a change of government, which would quickly attract the attention of the PRC security services.
                4. He also agrees with Paul Buchanan that the Government mouthpiece media is full of “Ra ra China, we will crush you Taiwan!” editorial pieces – which are primarily for domestic consumption & not necessarily an indication a Taiwan invasion is being seriously planned for, or even contemplated.

                Having now watched both YouTube podcasts, I find no evidence that “Buchanan is a fool”, nor that he is a shill for the US military/industrial complex.

                Your Mr Ma is commenting from a personal experience, social analysis, & reality-based perspective (truth-telling against inaccurate Western media reports by writers interviewing their own keyboards & sometimes reporting only hearsay – eg perhaps by Pentagon hawks).

                Paul Buchanan is responding to questions from Selwyn Manning, attempting to analyse the current situation from a diplomatic, military, & strategic policy perspective. Two quite different perspectives, both valuable to someone like me.

                • Gezza …
                  16 October 2021 at 7:21 am

                  (I might just add here that Al Jazeera tv reported the Taliban as having announced that one of those involved in the very recent Islamic State bombing in Kabul was a Uighur.)

      • francesca 3.2.5
        15 October 2021 at 12:53 pm

        Isn't the developed world avoiding a heap of carbon emissions by getting their stuff made in China?

        Another way of assessing responsibility for emissions might be per consumption .NZ,s consumption per capita is way ahead of China's ,emission wise

        • RedLogix 3.2.5.1
          15 October 2021 at 2:26 pm

          I'm well aware of these statistical conundrums – that have been richly exploited as excuses for inaction for decades.

          The core problem the PRC faces is that from a geographic perspective China is a piss-poor location for both solar and wind power generation. They have some decent hydro opportunity although this comes with substantial risk and has a strict upper limit. They can talk big on 'going green' all they like, but essentially the land they live in ties their hands to shoveling coal for today. And much the same story plays out in other major developing nations like Indonesia.

          There is only one open technological door out of this trap and it doesn't take a lot of cleverness to spot it.

      • Subliminal 3.2.6
        15 October 2021 at 12:56 pm

        I guess if the statistics suit your anti China bias you gonna use em.

        However, in a carbon constrained environment all individual inhabitants of the world are entitled to a more or less equal allocation of carbon. 2019 figures show China at 6.28t on a per capita basis as opposed to the highest per capita emitters, Luxembourg at 38t and the US still at a massive 17.63t. Of course it is always in the dialogue of supporters of the 1%ers that large groups of underpriviledged should bear the brunt of any change so that they can carry on in the manner that they have become accustomed. Otherwise known as let them eat cake. All this is without even considering the emissions of the US military. On fuel consumption allone, the US military rank on a list of countries at 48th. That would put them between Peru and Portugal.

        • RedLogix 3.2.6.1
          15 October 2021 at 2:01 pm

          I'm perfectly aware that the statistics can be parsed in any number of ways – which has been done for a decade or more as an excuse for finger pointing and inaction.

          But that graph I linked to tells the story – the climate does not care about CO2/capita, or the politics of the nation which emitted them. The only damn thing that matters is reducing the total emission and in this respect the first and most obvious responsibility lies with the PRC.

          And then more broadly with solving the problem of how to enable the developing world to continue to escape poverty on a carbon zero basis.

          • Subliminal 3.2.6.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 2:18 pm

            Which is just another way of saying youre good with the status quo because then you don't have to make any effort. We all personally consume more carbon than the average Chinese so have more obligation to reduce our consumption. You could probably make the same arguments on food when food is a scarce commodity. It must be rationed on an individual level. Same when we had carless days. No amount of China bashing absolves us from our overconsumption of carbon.

            • RedLogix 3.2.6.1.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 2:27 pm

              Zero sum game thinking.

              • Subliminal …
                15 October 2021 at 2:39 pm

                Perhaps you could let us know how carbon budgets can be anything else?

                  • Subliminal …
                    15 October 2021 at 3:09 pm

                    With regard to excess carbon its still zero sum. Theres a level that cant be exceeded. If energy comes from non carbon sources then energy need not be zero sum.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 3:39 pm

                      You asked for more detail and I provided a link from a post I wrote that does just that.

                      Your response tells me that either you didn't read it or didn't understand. Not sure which tbh.

                    • Subliminal []
                      15 October 2021 at 4:21 pm

                      I have read it and understand it. What I wrote is clearly implied by your equations. Its also obvious that you understand the zero sum nature of carbon budgets in your rant against China. Drowsy M Kram below offers a real world example of non zero sum energy in a zero sum carbon constrained world.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 4:32 pm

                      OK so which one of the four terms of the Kaya Identity matters if we are going to get to carbon zero?

                    • Subliminal []
                      15 October 2021 at 5:23 pm

                      The equation is idiotic in that it takes an individual global average and multiplies it by the population to get a product that was already known. I guess its popular because it hides the huge anomalies in individual contributions by taking an average. The 1%ers get to hide. Its obvious from the tables I supplied above that there is some serious hiding going on since country tables are also averages. But global averages! What a great trick! The multiplying by P is shorthand for adding each contribution P times. The true equation adds each individual contribution and cannot use the shorthand "times P" because each is different. In this true equation, if each individual has an F contribution near zero then they have little effect on Ftotal. In this way it is easy to see that one persons contribution to F makes less carbon available for someone else. The easiest way to reduce F is for Ecarbon to get close to zero. Individuals with low F get a pass.Individuals with a high F get a rap over the knuckles

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 5:59 pm

                      On the one hand Kaya's Identity is a well recognised and referenced idea and on the other hand your attempt at describing it is not impressive at all.

                      I'll leave it to others to conclude who is the idiot here.

                    • Subliminal []
                      15 October 2021 at 6:27 pm

                      Different world views is all. You enjoy your priviledged position and have no wish to upset it. Hiding individual high carbon consumers is just how things go. It allows people like you to blame and demonise whole populations. Its more than obvious that total carbon is the sum of individual consumption even in a politically convenient construct such as Kayas identity. 1%ers get to say its population without looking at the fact that they consume as much carbon as the poorest 50% of the world. So Kayas averaging identity just glosses over the real problems. And I'll take it as an admission that carbon budgets are zero sum since you seem to have conceded that point

                    • Subliminal []
                      15 October 2021 at 8:52 pm

                      Ok. Not cooking or eating any more so heres a quick clearer restating of the above.

                      1. From Kayas identity, some simple algebraic manipulation gives: F/P=G/P . E/G . F/E. Its a nonsense because once again it simplifies to F/P=F/P but in the spirit of this nonsense it also says that the average individual contribution to F is GDP per capita multiplied by energy intensity of GDP multiplied by carbon footprint of energy. To get the total amount of carbon you multiply the average personal input by the population size. As can be seen from tables above and the Guardian article that actually states the top 1% contribute twice the amount as the bottom 50%, this is extremely misleading and the true calculation would add each individual contribution in a very long list of additions. If F is constrained to a particular number then an individual consuming more, necessarily imposes less consumption on some other individual. This is why carbon budgets are zero sum. Energy use that is not carbon based does not contribute to F. This is why energy can be non zero sum.
                      2. Kayas identity does not prove causality. Just because you can insert any arbitrarily large number for P into the equation does not prove that large P makes for a large F. In 2019 the US consumed about 5.8B tonnes of carbon. If their population disappeared (aprox 329M people emitting at 17.63 tonnes per person) to be replaced by 923M Chinese emitting at 6.28tonnes per person then P would have increased by more than a half billion but F remained the same.

                      This is the way that averages always conceal those that are rorting the system

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 9:45 pm

                      Well at least I know you've read it this time.

                      Yes the units in Kaya's Identity do collapse down to an identity F= F and that's precisely why it has that name. (btw your algebra is a bit wonky.)

                      From a climate perspective the only thing that matters is total carbon F – molecules of CO2 do not care who emitted them or how 'privileged' or not that individual is.

                      But from a response perspective Kaya's Identity exposes the four fundamental levers we have available to us to reduce F to zero. In the linked post I briefly cover each one and conclude that the only one that is capable of delivering is to reduce the final terms F/E to zero – or in non-arithmetic terms transitioning to zero carbon energy sources.

                      The other three levers are essentially ineffective – reducing P to zero is a nonsense, reducing G/P to zero is the mass poverty option, and there is a physical minimum to how much we can reduce E/G.

                      Note also that the Identity works just as well if you reduce P=1 for each individual contribution. We could calculate this 'carbon footprint' for every individual on earth, sum the lot and arrive at total F again. And yes there will a wide range of differing numbers – and again with widely differing contributions from each of the three remaining terms G/P, E/G and F/E.

                      Of course the unspoken problem here is the G/P term – GDP per capita. Your solution is for the developed world to voluntarily undo two centuries of development and reduce their G/P term to match that of China. (There is of course is a small fraction of humanity who do consume at very high F levels – but their numbers are so low that even cancelling them out to zero has only a modest impact on the rates of CO2 rise. It might be satisfying to ‘eat the rich’ but not very effective.)

                      The question I pose is simple – why opt for the mass poverty option? Why do we have to all be as poor as China (on average I note – there are more billionaires in the PRC than NZ for example)? And even then note carefully – even this proposal this does not get F to zero – it merely reduces it. And that simply isn't good enough, we've overshot the recognised 350 ppm safe level and need to be carbon negative for a substantial period – which can only done using energy intensive carbon extraction technologies.

                      All this firmly implies a world that needs far more energy not less. As a crude estimate getting the developing world out of poverty will take about 3 – 5 times more than our current use, and then add in the energy needed to drive carbon extraction and closed loop resource economies – something in the order of 8 – 10 times our current consumption is not an unreasonable number to be talking about.

                      And to deliver this the only lever that can work is getting F/E to zero. And this is the value of Kaya's Identity – it strips away all the distractions and focusses the debate on what will work.

                    • Subliminal []
                      15 October 2021 at 10:00 pm

                      First up, theres nothing wrong with my algebra and second I most definitely disagree with your analysis. How exactly do you square what you say above with your rant against China? That theres no hope without China reducing to zero? But all good with just sticking what the 1% emit back in the ground? I mean really, who wants to be poor? Its just so demeaning! Bashing the Chinese while bending over backwards (or forwards) for the elite is really pathetic

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 October 2021 at 10:59 pm

                      You were doing better when you were cooking and eating. 😯

        • Drowsy M. Kram 3.2.6.2
          15 October 2021 at 2:50 pm

          yes Comparisons of per capita GHG emissions don't suit anti-CCP narratives.

          Some good news: the CCP's decade-long development of technology for MSR power generation is coming to fruition. If trials are successful, then the marxist '[Deleted] peril' might roll out MSRs with their usual ruthless efficiency to help tackle their internal challenges and lower per capita GHG emissions.

          Proponents of MSRs for power generation will no doubt be absolutely stoked by these developments.

          Physicist dismisses molten salt nuclear reactors as a "waste of time"
          [11 min interview from Canada, posted as a Youtube video 12 Oct.]

          [RL: Deleted unnecessary reference to skin colour. Be more careful.]

          • RedLogix 3.2.6.2.1
            15 October 2021 at 3:28 pm

            Unfortunately while the PRC engineers were happy to visit ORNL in the early 2010's and take away all the IP that Kirk Sorensen had saved from the original MSRE project – they've been remarkably reluctant to reciprocate this generosity since and we don't have good access to any interesting technical detail on what has been achieved at Wuwei in recent months.

            As for your linked video – it's long on hand waving innuendo – and very short on serious technical analysis. As a long time student in this domain my honest initial impression is that this guy just doesn't know what he's talking about. For instance his claim that the MSRE had "Over those four years, the latter reactor’s operations were interrupted 225 times; of these, only 58 were planned" is directly contradicted by the two living operators of the plant who have said they shut the reactor down every Friday night and restarted it Monday morning. That would account for around 200 of the shutdowns alone – so something doesn't add up.

            And as someone who makes a living bringing heavy industrial plant online – the idea that an entirely experimental and novel machine – that's what the E in MSRE stands for – would simply startup and run without issues is an unreal demand. In my own experience the vast majority of unplanned shutdowns will likely be for reasons that have little to do with the nature of the plant and much more to do with mundane technical reasons. Soundbite claims like he is making here are almost meaningless unless you have access to the data and basis on which it's made.

            I've seen this kind of superficial material before, at first sight it seems to convey plausible objections and potential show-stoppers. But then dig a little deeper and put some questions to my contacts who really do work in this area – and invariably these 'problematic objections' fall apart.

            Edit: And unlike some I tend to read the provided references and material written by this academic. In this article where he links to a ‘devastating 1972 report’ that on p43 I find this interesting line:

            The MSRE was designed for remote maintenance of highly radioactive
            components; however, no major maintenance problems (removal or repair of large components) were encountered after nuclear operation was initiated.

            Rather non-devastating would you not agree?

            The other mistake he makes is to repeat the idea that molten salts are ‘highly corrosive’ when in reality in the absence of water they are much less so than imagined. This is a basic chemistry error.

            • Drowsy M. Kram 3.2.6.2.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 4:54 pm

              Just appended the interview link to balance the gung-ho approach of the CCP to developing MSRs for power generation (you must be stoked).

              And apologies for my unnecessary reference to skin colour – 'marxist peril', or 'CCP-peril' would have been more succinct and avoided offense. Imho 'skin colour stereotypes' and 'skin colour privilege', however undesirable, are even now simple matters of fact. I, like you, would prefer to see such stereotypes/privileges minimised – whether censoring references to specific skin colour stereotypes/privileges will facilitate this is debatable, but it's a strategy.

              Here, for information, are some links to recent articles on skin colour privilege, in the spirit of John Howard Griffin's "Black Like Me". Hope they are suitable for posting on Open Mike.

              Is 'white privilege' really a divisive term? [28 June 2021]
              This shows a failure in the proper communication of the meaning of the term “white privilege”. As many have pointed out, it does not mean white people are not disadvantaged, their lives are not hard, or they have not suffered, it just means their skin colour is not an impediment in their lives.

              What is ‘white privilege’ and why does understanding it matter [18 Sept 2021]
              Why is racial inequality perceivably so resistant to transformation? Some say it is because of a failure to acknowledge and confront white privilege.

              8 Lessons: The blessing and the curse of light privilege
              [27 Sept 2021]
              But in the past year, I had to admit there’s something else. I also feel guilty. It’s a signal that I’ve had light-skin privilege.

              • RedLogix …
                15 October 2021 at 6:02 pm

                Only in countries with a numerically dominant population of Caucasians have we been suckered into this post-modernist 'white privilege' trope. And then mostly among the over-educated academic classes.

                Live and work in any other place where a different culture or skin colour is numerically dominant and you'll very quickly understand.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  15 October 2021 at 7:45 pm

                  Thanks RL – believe it or not, I understand that true 'skin colour blindness' is a rare trait, and one well worth fostering imho. “I have a dream…“

                  • RedLogix …
                    15 October 2021 at 7:58 pm

                    I wish you could see my current workplace – one that I'm about to head off for a shift to in a few hours. It's a very real mix of different skin colours and cultures – and I'm not blind to their physical reality.

                    But what matters to us getting the job done as a team is our personal skills and character – and a collective unity of purpose.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram …
                      15 October 2021 at 10:44 pm

                      Can imagine it. The workplace I retired from was colourful and culturally diverse too – no unity of purpose, but we rubbed along.

                      At a friend's funeral one of our former colleagues began his tribute with "She's was colour blind", which puzzled me because I knew she wasn't colour blind – took a few seconds for the penny to drop.

                      As I said, a noticeably rare trait – one well worth fostering, imho.

    • bwaghorn 3.3
      15 October 2021 at 7:08 am

      Why only men, I had a woman tell me just yesterday that climate change isnt happening, it's been a cold spring here, people cant grasp that weather and climate are different things.

      Maybe those that know need to find better ways of communicating, rather than just calling them thick

  4. Cricklewood 4
    15 October 2021 at 7:08 am

    Was pretty funny when Hipkins said Nationals plan would mean Covid for Christmas…

    Not so funny now he's actually delivering it…

    • Bearded Git 4.1
      15 October 2021 at 7:49 am

      It would have been Covid for Easter 2020 under the Nats.

      • Cricklewood 4.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 7:54 am

        To be fair at least that was always a known, until a couple of weeks ago Covid for Christmas wasnt on the table and yet here we are…

        • bwaghorn 4.1.1.1
          15 October 2021 at 8:01 am

          But I gots to have my Australian bubble!!

        • Bearded Git 4.1.1.2
          15 October 2021 at 8:05 am

          Spectacular work on the vaccine roll-out by Jacinda-83% of over 12yo’s already.

          Any border opening should wait until 95% of over 5yo’s.

          • Cricklewood 4.1.1.2.1
            15 October 2021 at 8:19 am

            Spectacular in some sections of the community… over half of yesterdays cases were Maori…

            • Bearded Git 4.1.1.2.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 8:28 am

              Yes good point Crickle-I just listened to a very eloquent Maori professor on Morning Report who said that a circuit-breaker Level 4 lockdown was needed in Akl in order to get Maori vaccine levels up.

              A two-week return to Level 4 for this reason seems like a good idea to me-presumably given your comment above you would agree Crickle?

              • Cricklewood …
                15 October 2021 at 9:23 am

                Firstly 2 weeks wouldnt do it, would have to be a minimum of 4… and secondly I just cant see it happening the govt folded and dropped levels too early so no chance they'll put them back up. End of the day Jacindas a populist re introduction of level 4 would be unpalatable only way it happens is if the Maori Caucus threatens to walk.

                • Bearded Git …
                  15 October 2021 at 9:32 am

                  I am not asking you whether it will happen, I'm asking you whether you think it a good idea.

                  As it stands the Covid hospital wards will largely fill up with sick and dying Maori. A health and political disaster for the government and the country.

                  (you may well be right that it will need 4 weeks)

                  • Cricklewood …
                    15 October 2021 at 9:44 am

                    To be honest im not sure if it is, purely from Covid perspective yes But I suspect to make level 4 actually work it would have to be policed very hard I suspect what that would entail coupled with an outpouring of anger and dare I say it racism from the double vaxxed leafy suburbs losing freedoms is potentially more damaging in the long term.

          • Forget now 4.1.1.2.2
            15 October 2021 at 10:27 am

            Agreed BG! Assuming there are around 300K children under 5 (last census was 2018, so hard to be too exact) then 95% of over 5 year olds = 90% of total population (actually 89.3%: Assuming 5M total population, but figures a bit iffy for any such precision). Personally, I would go down to 3 years (kindy age) or lower in progressive age band phases. 6 weeks is the first on the current immunization schedule:

            https://www.immune.org.nz/new-zealand-national-immunisation-schedule

      • Puckish Rogue 4.1.2
        15 October 2021 at 8:33 am

        It would have been eliminated under National by now

        House prices would have dropped

        Child poverty would have lowered

        I mean since we're making stuff up we may as well go the whole hog

        • Robert Guyton 4.1.2.1
          15 October 2021 at 8:46 am

          "I mean since we're making stuff up we may as well go the whole hog"

          Thought you were going to say something about your beloved leader as well!

          • Puckish Rogue 4.1.2.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 8:52 am

            I'm under strict rules of silence, but something is coming…a game changer if you like

            angel

            • Dennis Frank 4.1.2.1.1.1
              15 October 2021 at 9:45 am

              Nats changing games? Nah, that'll never happen. Dinosaurs don't change their spots. If they ever tried it on, constituency would patiently explain to them that conservative means to conserve. Preserve.

              It's why the blue-green dog gets kept in the kennel on a chain, eh? If they let it out & gave it an electoral run, constituency would accuse them of being innovative. Tradition rules, ok? wink

            • Robert Guyton 4.1.2.1.1.2
              15 October 2021 at 11:25 am

              You're in a nunnery, Pucky?

              Here was I thinking you were spending your time in prison!

              Game changer, from the Nats?

              Leaving politics and starting up a netball team?

              Am I close?

              • Puckish Rogue …
                15 October 2021 at 11:39 am

                My lips are sealed angel

                • Gezza …
                  15 October 2021 at 1:21 pm

                  That may be, however your fingers appear unconstrained?

                  • Puckish Rogue …
                    15 October 2021 at 2:25 pm

                    As the actress said to the Bishop

                    • Robert Guyton …
                      15 October 2021 at 2:51 pm

                      I knew it was a church-thing – you got religion, Pucky?

                      Maybe you're signalling a move by the churchiest of all the Nats (no, not pew-kneelin' Judith), what's-his-handle, Key's bald shadow, Luxxy!

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      15 October 2021 at 3:39 pm

                      Well Judes initials are JC so maybe…

                      My preference however is for Reti, once The Devine Miss Collins retires after four terms as PM

        • Herodotus 4.1.2.2
          15 October 2021 at 9:11 am

          You forgot to mention that NZ would be co2 neutral as everyone accepts that this is our nuclear moment and that all forestry planting would be from native species.your list excluded anything for the environment 👍

        • UncookedSelachimorpha 4.1.2.3
          15 October 2021 at 12:51 pm

          …And a Unicorn in every Pot!

        • Patricia Bremner 4.1.2.4
          15 October 2021 at 3:32 pm

          PuckishRogue, and climate change dealt to?

          Has love waned?

          • Puckish Rogue 4.1.2.4.1
            15 October 2021 at 3:41 pm

            Unlike the fair weather devotees of Ms Ardern my love for JC is pure and without limits

  5. Jenny How to get there 5
    15 October 2021 at 9:04 am

    The pandemic interrupted Business As Usual, BAU.

    Happy Days, we are back on track to return to BAU.

    It is unfortunate, I know, that that some of us on the road back to BAU, will sicken and even die, but that is the price we are prepared to to pay.

    During the pandemic, we had a free public transport, we had a type of UBI, we had clean air and cleaner waterways, and no traffic congestion. Deaths on the road dropped to zero.

    Families spent time with their children and pets.

    People of North India saw the awe inspiring Himalayas for the first time in their lives.

    The world sort of healed a little bit.

    Thank goodness, that terrible time is behind us, and we can now get back to BAU, or as I like to call it DAU.

    • Ed 5.1
      15 October 2021 at 9:15 am

      This Steve Cutts cartoon sums up your point about the world healing a bit.

      • Ed 5.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 9:17 am

        Here is the original video if people have not seen it, looking at looking at man's relationship with the natural world.

        • Gezza 5.1.1.1
          15 October 2021 at 1:59 pm

          👍🏼 Sums it up perfectly. As I often say (in one form or another) the human ape is the worst thing to ever happen to every other life form on this planet. ☹️

          • Jenny How to get there 5.1.1.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 3:09 pm

            The first time I saw this video on my laptop, our three year old Grandson happened to pass by..
            The nihilistic, misanthropic thrust of this cartoon would have gone right over his head. He just wanted to know why the man had stood on the bug, before he wandered off again.

            Indeed.

            I like the second updated cartoon better.

          • Stuart Munro 5.1.1.1.2
            15 October 2021 at 3:14 pm

            Alien may have got it backwards – the leftover bioweapon may be us.

          • RedLogix 5.1.1.1.3
            15 October 2021 at 4:08 pm

            Astonishing the degree of self-loathing so prevalent in Western thinking these days.

            When I read this sort of sentiment I cannot help but be reminded of this charming crowd.

            • Gezza 5.1.1.1.3.1
              15 October 2021 at 5:26 pm

              What a pack of weirdos that lot is.

              Don’t get me wrong. I’m not full of self-loathing at all. It’s just been obvious to me for some years that, looked at quite dispassionately, we are an ape. Despite our intellectual capabilities (greater in some than others, admittedly) we are a danger to our own kind in ways that other animals are not, for reasons that often don’t make any rational sense. Abstract notions of religion, politics, nationalism, ideologies, racism, mental instabillty, psychoses, hatreds, sociopathy/psychopathy etc.

              We are a large biped that habitually monopolises all resources, with some food sources, frequently to extinction, & that unthinkingly destroys local ecosystems wherever we gather to live in large numbers (think of the number of mosses, plants, creatures & general environments our average town or city has wiped out or displaced).

              We are what we are. We are inclined because of our capacity for abstract thinking & our ability to make and use tools to fly, sail, drive, produce tools themselves to think of ourselves as very special, as lords of all other things – except major catastrophes like earthquakes, tsunamis, tornados, storms, hurricanes & cyclones.

              But we do tend to miss out noticing the value of all the other lives we destroy or limit by our presence. And if one day another asteroid comes barrelling in & takes out humanity this time – well, the planet will survive. It’s an evolutionary machine. It will just eventually probably produce another intelligent sentient being. Maybe one the other life forms can live in harmony with?

              Meantime, I’m making the most of my time left on this planet getting really in touch with the natural environment I’m living right next door to, & counting myself very fortunate to have lived in the beautiful, peaceful country I grew up in (NZ), at the best time to have lived here (with no horrible, cruel wars to have to go fight in, like many of our dads & grandads did) with all the modern conveniences we have and that enable us to talk with so many people such as yourself and other commenters here who I admire or at least find very interesting (for one reason or another). 👍🏼 ☘ 🐧

              • RedLogix …
                15 October 2021 at 6:14 pm

                It’s just been obvious to me for some years that, looked at quite dispassionately, we are an ape.

                Yes and no. In purely materialistic terms the answer is yes, we are evolved from mammalian ancestors and our physical embodiment is deeply entwinned with that heritage.

                At the same time it's also obvious we are quite distinct from our nearest ape relatives – in particular we have evolved a highly sophisticated capacity for abstraction at a level entirely absent in any other species. In particular it endows us with an acute sense of morality – something virtually all of our conversations here are about at root.

                And in a broader sense we are also the first species capable of apprehending our evolved nature and also capable of altering it's path. This capacity for abstraction, morality and a capacity to manipulate our environment at massive scale – makes us in many ways the first post-biological species as well.

                • Gezza …
                  15 October 2021 at 6:41 pm

                  “Yes and no. In purely materialistic terms the answer is yes, we are evolved from mammalian ancestors and our physical embodiment is deeply entwinned with that heritage.”
                  ………………………………..

                  We are one of the 5 Great Apes:
                  Great Ape 1: Gorilla
                  Great Ape 2: Chimpanzee
                  Great Ape 3: Orangutan
                  Great Ape 4: Bonobo
                  Great Ape 5: Human (Homo sapiens)
                  …………………………………

                  “At the same time it’s also obvious we are quite distinct from our nearest ape relatives – in particular we have evolved a highly sophisticated capacity for abstraction at a level entirely absent in any other species. In particular it endows us with an acute sense of morality – something virtually all of our conversations here are about at root.”
                  ………………………………….

                  Yes, for some, they are. And yet, look around the globe. Where do you see this morality evolving towards a common world understanding of the same morality & the immorality of killing, maiming, orphaning & terrorising other human apes? Or of avoiding doing harm to others through selfishness and/or “othering”?

                  In the Middle East? No. Throughout Asia? No. Throughout Africa? No. In the Americas? In Europe, or Eurasia? No. The Indian subcontinent? No. Russia? No.

                  Even after two “wars to end all wars” we’ve had wars & massacres going on in multiple locations incessantly. It only takes one generation to be easily able to persuade or coerce the next generation to go to war.
                  ……………………………………

                  “And in a broader sense we are also the first species capable of apprehending our evolved nature and also capable of altering it’s path. This capacity for abstraction, morality and a capacity to manipulate our environment at massive scale – makes us in many ways the first post-biological species as well.”
                  …………………………………….

                  That was the dream of the United Nations. And yet, note my observations above. As an “evolved” species, history sadly suggests we are chronically incapable of all altering our paths & all being our better selves at the same time.

                  The best we can still hope for, I suspect, is that MAD prevents us from wiping our own entire species out in one fell (or foul) swoop?

                  • RedLogix …
                    15 October 2021 at 7:50 pm

                    Humanity has been here before – and in much darker straits. Our progress and development has been both episodic and cyclical – with both highs and lows.

                    It's the low points, such as the period we seem to be entering now, that set the stage for subsequent social evolution and progress. Overall I'm happy to argue that when viewed over millennia progress is both real and worth defending as an idea.

                    But still I do appreciate your thoughtful response and I'm not discounting your motives. Optimism is a tough gig at the moment.

            • Patricia Bremner 5.1.1.1.3.2
              15 October 2021 at 9:43 pm

              Redlogix, "As we become less dense" Yes in a nutshell. Sorry couldn't resist!!

  6. chris T 6
    15 October 2021 at 9:42 am

    This weeks odd story Friday one.

    Way to tell you have more money than your sense of perspective should allow to possess – lesson no 4

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-58908768

    "Banksy's Love is in the Bin sells for record £16m

    A Banksy artwork which shredded itself at a previous auction has sold for a record £16 million.

    Love is in the Bin was what remained of the anonymous artist's live destruction of his piece Girl with Balloon, which sold for £1m in 2018.

    It went under the hammer at Sotheby's in London on Thursday, selling for £16m – vastly over its £4-6m guide price.

    Including a buyer's premium, the purchaser paid £18.5m in total……"

    "

    • alwyn 6.1
      15 October 2021 at 11:03 am

      Damn it! We should never have let Grant Robertson loose with the Treasury credit card.

      This will no doubt turn up in Te Papa next month with the description "Labour Party Effect on the New Zealand Economy" After all Grant has shredded the whole economy with his wild extravagances. He might as well throw a bit more of our money at a Banksy.

      • Tricledrown 6.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 11:49 am

        Like the Banksy the NZ economy continues to grow in value faster than most countries.

        Like the Banksy everybody thought that the shredding of his artwork would cut its value to shreds

        But all the whingers were wrong on both counts.

        Imagine if Nationals Blinglish was in charge after 9 yrs of less than inflation growth .boring old chicago school bill English would have gone down the austerity road freezing the flow of money putting our economy into recession.He would have not shut our borders like Boris Johnston overloading our health system 1,000's dying.

        I have shredded your argument which had no merit and no value other than proving how much of a sychophant you are.

        Maybe you can now understand why National is on 20% and declining.

        • Gypsy 6.1.1.1
          15 October 2021 at 12:03 pm

          "after 9 yrs of less than inflation growth "

          Not so

          "the NZ economy continues to grow in value faster than most countries"

          Not sure where you get that from. NZ's growth is currently fueled off the smell of a hundred billion dollars in debt. And our lower than anticipated deficit has (oh the irony) been greatly assisted by rising property prices.

          I won’t be voting National any time soon, but deluding ourselves about the state of our nation is not sensible.

          • Tricledrown 6.1.1.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 2:34 pm

            NZ statistics only for the $85 billion capital injection from the Canterbury earthquakes $66 billion of that insurance money take that out of Nationals 9 years and you would have had 9 yrs of negative growth.

            Our deficit is low historically extremely low by every other Nations comparison.

            Every other Nation under covid has increased debt far more than we have.

            Up till this outbreak we were sitting in the top 3 for economic growth.

            Look across the ditch take state govt debt combine it with National debt and you won't be saying $100 billion is outrageous. Roughly 37% of GDP.

            The US,Japan ,UK all over 100% to gdp.

          • Craig Hall 6.1.1.1.2
            15 October 2021 at 4:02 pm

            We're hardly unique in issuing large amounts of debt as a reaction to Covid.

    • AB 6.2
      15 October 2021 at 2:40 pm

      I can't decide whether in shredding the work Banksy underestimated the Protean adaptability of speculative capitalism – or understood it better than anyone else.

      • chris T 6.2.1
        15 October 2021 at 4:56 pm

        Was thinking about that when it happened! Lol

        I definitely think the later.

        And he knew full well it would double its attention. You now get two for one.

        A valuable Banksy painting worth shedloads in it's own right, but wait! There is more!

        It is also a rare Banksy "Performance Art piece! But thats not all!

        If you pay the most money, we will give you this handy shredding machine! AB…SO…LUT….LY Free!"

      • chris T 6.2.2
        15 October 2021 at 5:36 pm

        Actually I think he missed some cash value.

        He should have set it up to catch fire halfway through and then put the ashes in a glass display case.

        That would probably chuck another 10 mill on.

        28 million for a twice used rare Banksy performance art piece, which was a very valuable painting in it's own right (purchaser will receive a framed, Banksy signed verification certificate and photo of what it used to be to show it is indeed his painting)

  7. tc 7
    15 October 2021 at 11:21 am

    I see nationals herald has hooton clickbait on MMP being soooo bad.

    Time to grind that organ again eh. Shills do as they're paid to do.

    • Tricledrown 7.1
      15 October 2021 at 12:01 pm

      It's like sports if you can't win blame the rules .Hooton is a political animal stuck in a Silo he has to take responsibility for his stupidity and admit he is largely responsible for Nationals pathetic performance just like the Boag constrictor and go away and let a younger more capable generation takeover a to help National regain the trust of voters he has a very large part in destroying .Dirty politics is like a ball and chain on National.

      National need a massive clean out and go back to solid farmers and honest business people.

    • Jimmy 7.2
      15 October 2021 at 12:11 pm

      Hooton hasn't done anything to help National in the last few years. Didn't he give them Muller?

    • Dennis Frank 7.3
      15 October 2021 at 12:20 pm

      Behind the paywall so he can preach at the converted. You'd think anyone with nous would preach at the unconverted, eh? You know, pull some of them centrists back across the center-line. Too elementary for Hoots??

      Ah, I get it. He's being paid to preach at Herald subscribers only. It's a cunning plan. Whose, I wonder? enlightened Some wannabe Nat leader channelling Machiavelli?

  8. roblogic 8
    15 October 2021 at 1:32 pm

    65 new cases today. 31 not linked as yet. Vaccination is the only way out of this mess now.

    https://twitter.com/AshBloomfield/status/1448806556238184449?s=20

  9. Forget now 9
    15 October 2021 at 1:35 pm

    At long last! Silly Buggers wasn't the best game to be playing during a Pandemic, even if the DHBs are unlikely to be around in their present form for long:

    The New Zealand Nurses Organisation (NZNO) has accepted the latest pay offer for staff working in district health boards…

    Negotiations had lasted 15 months.

    Lead advocate David Wait said he was pleased DHBs took the advice of the Employment Relations Authority after mediation last month and finally put forward an acceptable offer…

    "We also have a DHB contractual obligation to safe staffing, with a legally enforceable escalation pathway when members' concerns aren't addressed. Together with new employment commitments these are steps towards addressing the staffing crisis and making nursing an attractive profession again."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453597/nurses-accept-dhbs-latest-pay-offer

    • gsays 9.1
      15 October 2021 at 3:03 pm

      It is good news they have settled. The assurances and framework around safe staffing levels sounds promising, the proof will be in the pudding.

      Pay parity is still not settled. That rigmarole has been going on since Coleman was minister.

  10. observer 10
    15 October 2021 at 1:51 pm

    PM is in Taranaki today, pushing the vaccine rollout.

    Why isn't she in Auckland Wellington Chatham Islands? "PM must clone herself and be everywhere immediately, especially anywhere she isn't" says Collins/Seymour/assorted idiots.

    • roblogic 10.1
      15 October 2021 at 3:18 pm

      Why isn't she doing a press conference? What is she hiding? Why isn't she facing Mike Hosking and his hard hitting analysis on the pulse of the nation? Why isn't she doing a dance-off against Seymour?

      the public needs to know.

  11. weka 11
    15 October 2021 at 1:57 pm

    People wanting to follow the investigation into Stonewall UK, by BBC Northern Ireland, can now listen from outside the UK. It's a big story, and also part of the story is that MSM are increasingly able to now report on gender identity politics where they wouldn't or couldn't before.

    https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1448728239032123398

    • roblogic 11.1
      15 October 2021 at 3:31 pm

      Stonewall went from supporting the downtrodden to becoming a powerful moral arbiter. Then it embraced a social contagion and lost all objectivity and self-reflection. Finally it became a bully enforcing ideological hegemony with religious fervour.

      Good that the public can finally see the red flags that feminists and conscientious medical professionals have been waving around for years.

      • weka 11.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 5:02 pm

        I'm hoping someone will do a twitter thread on all the times SW were called out before (and who were largely ignored).

        • Forget now 11.1.1.1
          15 October 2021 at 8:22 pm

          Stephen “never reads books because he doesn’t have the time or attention span” Nolan? Interesting company you choose to keep; Weka. And the BBC have an interesting way of acknowledging the UK's; Hate Crime Awareness Week, for that matter.

          My biggest problem with Stonewall is the way a UK organization felt free to appropriate the name of a mafia-owned New York divebar; that in the 60s was one of the last places that that city's LGBTQ+ community could gather, and even dance, in public. Until a police raid/ shakedown resulted in the June 1969 Stonewall Uprising (though some prefer the term; Riots). Mostly because; it is confusing to those of us who don't care that much what the UK does, and so references to Stonewall seem rather out of place at times. Especially since the British Organization's full name is; Stonewall Equality Limited, so how hard is it for them to use; Stonewall Equality, or; Stonewall Ltd, for purposes of disambiguation?

          Apparently it was originally the Stonewall Group & the Iris Trust (Iris being Greek for Rainbow):

          Stonewall was formally launched one year to the day since Section 28 became law.

          This piece of legislation effectively prevented teachers from talking about same-sex relationships in schools, forcing teachers back into the closet, or out of their job, and scarred a generation of LGBT people.

          On 11 September 1988, at a meeting held in Sir Ian McKellen’s house in Limehouse, the basic aims were drawn up in a document dubbed the Second Limehouse Declaration. The first Limehouse Declaration, announcing the launch of the Social Democrat Party, had been signed in the house next door.

          On 24 May 1989, the new group sent a press release to the LGBT press announcing the founding of the Stonewall Group. It was set up as a company and a charity, the Iris Trust, was announced at the same time, with a remit to raise funds for research and to support the work of the Stonewall Group.

          https://www.stonewall.org.uk/our-work/campaigns/our-history

          On 30 August 2014, a meeting was set up with trans professionals, campaigners and activists to discuss the possibility of Stonewall becoming trans inclusive.

          It was one of many meetings that would start a conversation that was well overdue. Until this point, Stonewall had been firm about not campaigning for trans equality and many in the trans community didn’t trust Stonewall. Some believed Stonewall's stance was actively holding back trans equality.

          The meetings were therefore also about building bridges.

          As well as establishing if Stonewall could do trans campaigning, the charity had to also understand how it could contribute to the fight for trans equality.

          The consultation ended up involving more than 700 organisations and individuals.

          https://www.stonewall.org.uk/our-work/campaigns/2015-stonewall-extends-remit-become-lgbt-charity-and-begins-journey-trans

          So it took a quarter century for a Homosexual Rights organization; named after the queer uprising at the Stonewall Inn, to realize that maybe they should do something to help trans people too? And, of course, they have since become prime targets for the LGB alliance (spot the missing letter!), and their ilk.

          Mr Harvie said it would be “extremely disappointing” if the reports the BBC is set to leave Stonewall’s scheme were true.

          He said: “Stonewall is the biggest and successful LGBT+ human rights organisation in Europe, it has done incredibly work, it still does incredible work.

          "Now it is under fundamental attack by those who have never supported my community’s human rights, who are mobilising around an opportunistic hate campaign specifically targeted against trans and non-binary people at the moment…

          "We will not allow ourselves to fragmented in a way that some would like because we know where that will go,” he said.

          "That will go toward where Texas is at the moment with fundamental attacks, not just on queer people’s human rights but on women’s reproductive rights as well.

          https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/patrick-harvie-stonewall-charity-is-victim-of-opportunistic-hate-campaign-3413821

          Over the last few months, the BBC has made several troubling and dangerous decisions in regards to so-called ‘impartiality’ regarding LGBTQIA+ people. This began with the BBC’s new impartiality guidelines, which were introduced a few months after the appointment of Tim Davie. Mr Davie, a former chairman of a local branch of the Conservative Party, has allegedly said in private that he planned to “rid the BBC of biased left-wing comedy,” (Daily Express, 2021).

          The guidelines state that staff whose job requires impartiality “don’t express a personal opinion on matters of public policy, politics, or ‘controversial subjects’”. These guidelines seemingly included not voicing support for trans/queer rights . By framing these as a ‘controversial topic’, the BBC is lending legitimacy to the idea that LGBTQIA+ rights and lives are up for debate, as opposed to being protected human rights under threat from outsiders.

          https://medium.com/@lois.shearing/statement-to-bbc-regarding-stonewall-2f3bc3efe92

          Speaking of which, there's been this news in the past week out of Iceland (I'm not usually on Twitter much, but a friend pointed this out today, and the total lack of surprise in the replies is quite amusing):

          The spokesperson for the LGB Alliance group in Iceland, @teymidLGB, has recently been exposed along with about 700 other men in a facebook group that contains pages and pages of vile and disgusting misogyny. Not only is he among them, but he is an active admin in the group…

          This came out a couple of days ago, and can be found here: https://24.is/karlmenn-sem-rakka-nidur-konur-i-leyni-hulunni-svipt-af-hopnum/… It is unfortunately only in Icelandic, but I'll give you some highlights. A trigger warning is in order.

          https://twitter.com/UglaStefania/status/1448697715135848454?s=20

          • weka 11.1.1.1.1
            15 October 2021 at 9:59 pm

            It really doesn't bother me if someone doesn't read books. I'm much more interested in how they are as a person. And in the case of a radio host at the BBC, how he does his job.

            • Forget now 11.1.1.1.1.1
              16 October 2021 at 7:43 am

              It does make me a whole lot less likely to waste my time listening to any "journalism" they may produce. Time and attention span, are rather important in crafting anything worth paying attention to. He strikes me as the Mike Hosking of Northern Ireland talkback radio. And I don't have much time for the BBC these days either.

              Though I guess, like the Guardian; they are better at foreign events that don't impact in any way on UK politics, than they are to be relied upon with domestic stories. Which just seems backwards and upside down from my antipodean perspective.

              • weka …
                16 October 2021 at 10:17 am

                there was a team that produced the series, afaik Nolan wasn't doing the investigative stuff.

                Ignore it, it doesn't really matter, others will now pick up the issues and be more likely to cover them. You can ad hom the issues now, but eventually even MSM that you respect will have to do some journalism on this.

  12. Adrian 12
    15 October 2021 at 2:07 pm

    My dear wife works 12 hour shifts in ICU which are really 12 and three quarters because of handover and I got into trouble last night for sneaking a bite of her toastie before she left for the hospital. Apparently all they have in the meal room is a small microwave and a small toasted sandwich machine. 50 years ago I used to work a12 hour shift in a carpet factory and before that in uni holidays a 12 hours in lucerne factory. In both jobs we were a lot better looked after than nurses are now. No wonder they are hard to keep in the job.

    • Forget now 12.1
      15 October 2021 at 2:16 pm

      In Dunedin ED they were running out of toilets for nurses to cry (/ break down) in! Hopefully todays announcement (link upthread) means that conditions, and employment relations, can start to improve. DHBs & the Minister of Health certainly haven't given the impression of bargaining in good faith this past year. Perhaps trust can start to grow once more? If they follow through on their written promises.

      https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-15-10-2021/#comment-1824299

      • gsays 12.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 2:59 pm

        Palmy ED, until recently, didn't have a cleaner during the night shift. Think restocking toilets, cleaning up 'biological spills' etc. Now they have an orderly to do that, therefore down one orderly.

        All good, it will mean a positive impact on the bottom line, that's why we have line managers, CFO's, CEO's etc etc./sarc.

    • Ad 12.2
      15 October 2021 at 2:28 pm

      That's a mighty hero you're looking after there.

      • Adrian 12.2.1
        15 October 2021 at 4:31 pm

        I certainly wasn’t a hero for pinching the bit of toastie, but I think she is a bit preoccupied, ED, HDU, ICU nurses are like Battle of Britain pilots all running on the need to get into the fight and she hasn’t lost it in 35 years but at 64 and slightly geneticly compromised on lung function, as much as she wants to go to Auckland to help out she knows it’s probably not a good idea. I think she should stay in the South and train nurses for the battle, but I know to keep that to myself. You are right about them being special, us mere mortals rarely have to deal with the heartbreak and grief that is commonplace in that job.

    • Patricia Bremner 12.3
      15 October 2021 at 3:50 pm

      Adrian, you must be freaking at what is in the pipeline. So many working their butt's off and other playing the system.

      Look after her mate she is an essential worker worth her weight in gold.

  13. Ad 13
    15 October 2021 at 2:22 pm

    The government has announced the consortium to do the feasibility design, environmental, and geotechnical work for the Power NZ Battery investigation at Onslow near Roxborough.

    MottMcDonald are the lead engineers with GHD and Boffa Miskell doing the rest.

    I have the sneaking feeling that under Woods, New Zealand has the chance of forming a new 100%-owned state energy generator. It would be hard to see either the government allowing an existing generator to hold that degree of national generation command. Woods is the Joe Moody of this lot. Doesn’t say much but sets a tight pack well.

    If Woods is particularly keen she could have a run at Genesis and require divestment of Meridian's Manapouri station. The Genesis market share is just too big.

    Put Manapouri, Onslow and Transpower together and you have something that could start to hold the risk and responsibility for the New Zealand energy transition that Ardern envisaged last week.

    • Dennis Frank 13.1
      15 October 2021 at 2:30 pm

      So refreshing to see resilience design in the pipeline:

      <blockquote>
      The alternative being explored for Lake Onslow is pumped hydro storage, transferring water between two reservoirs at different heights.

      Water in the upper reservoir effectively acts as a battery, as it can be released to generate electricity when it is needed during times of high demand or during dry years.

      https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/potential-seen-lake-onslow-project

      • Forget now 13.1.1
        15 October 2021 at 4:04 pm

        There was something about this on Stuff yesterday too. Roxburgh used to be all orchards (worked some uni holidays there myself – ate a lot of Jimmy's pies!), so definitely gets a fair bit of sunlight. A combination of solar and pumped hydro might be a winner in central Otago – though winter might be a bit iffy with freezing temperatures. Maybe even some wind up on the high ground? You'd want it close so you didn't lose too much in the wires before it even got to the pumps (which aren't going to be 100% efficient themselves).

        The fieldwork investigations were likely to involve drilling shallow and deep boreholes to better understand the underlying geology, the best route for a tunnel and the best location for a potential underground powerhouse.

        “This work, along with the environmental and cultural investigations already underway, will give a better picture of the feasibility and costs of the Lake Onslow storage scheme,” Woods said.

        The Government has committed to spend $30m to investigate whether it can expand the capacity of New Zealand’s hydro electricity…

        It would, in effect, turn the South Island rock basin into a massive 5000 gigawatt rechargeable battery to power the country during periods of little rainfall or wind, ending its dependence on gas and coal generation.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126683585/govt-awards-115m-contract-to-investigate-feasibility-of-lake-onslow-power-scheme

    • Patricia Bremner 13.2
      15 October 2021 at 4:01 pm

      Ad, we rate Megan as well, she has had brickbats about housing but just soldiers on.

  14. joe90 14
    15 October 2021 at 3:09 pm

    Gorgeous birb is just what we need right now.

    https://twitter.com/ZEALANDIA/status/1448762739921358848

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