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Open mike 17/01/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, January 17th, 2020 - 54 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

54 comments on “Open mike 17/01/2020”

    • Kevin 1.1

      I think Warren's popularity will plummet after her BS leaked story regarding Bernie Sanders. 

      • Puckish Rogue 1.1.1

        Agreed, the consensus among conservative commentators is that basically Warren is telling big, fat porkies and if that's what the conservatives are thinking…

      • McFlock 1.1.2

        meh.

        speculation about that  simply encourages folk like puckish.

        Two grownups can get pissed at each other and get over it – I suspect that it's a simple misunderstanding, where Sanders meant one thing and Warren heard another.

        • Puckish Rogue 1.1.2.1

          Yeah probably true so of course Warren just had to bring it up on the eve of the debate and then at the end of the debate which the cameras just happened to pick up

          • McFlock 1.1.2.1.1

            Both strike me as not being eager to lie simply to tear the other down.

            I suspect she honestly thinks he said that.

            I suspect he said something that sounded like that to her but he meant something else – like maybe he was thinking only HRC and she took it as women in general. So he honestly thinks she is incorrect about what she said he said.

            I suspect that each has an honest belief that the other has lied by calling them a liar.

            I suspect they will both get over it.

            I think the people who win from building up this beef are people who would prefer the democrats to lose, but would also be content with the democrats being skewed back towards fiscal and social conservatism (i.e. no obvious difference from rump republicans).

            I think you are one of those people.

    • Ad 1.2

      This is just getting stupid.

      We are now just 6 months away from the US Democratic Convention.

      At that point in front of the nation they are supposed to crown a contender against Trump. Another contested Convention would be even worse chaos than last time. And same Presidential result.

      Warren and Buttigieg need to figure out that they are simply a massive drag on the chances of Sanders taking out Biden for the shot at Trump.

      There is zero path to victory for Bloomberg or any other Democrat candidate .

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

      We are getting quickly to the point where Biden is the default contender because the rest of them can't pool their resources against him.

      I fear it's getting too late in the day to generate broad electoral messaging that reflects unity and a presumption of Democratic Presidential rule.

      • adam 1.2.1

        The centrist kill any chance to stop trump, who would have thought it. Like the UK election, the centre left would rather a fascist win, than a progressive. 

        This is why the left keeps losing Ad – not messaging, not tactics, but a centrist left who would rather lose than have a solid left wing victory. 

         

        • Ad 1.2.1.1

          Who are the Democrat candidates you see as the "centrist left" doing this damage?

        • joe90 1.2.1.2

          The centre left would rather a fascist win, than a progressive.

          Or the berniebros would rather a fascist win, than a woman.

          • adam 1.2.1.2.1

            'berniebros'

            Just another batshit crazy conspiracy theory from joe90. 

             

          • arkie 1.2.1.2.2

            Chris Hayes's response to the above tweet was to link to an article he wrote in 2004 about undecided voters and some of the points he raised then are relevant now:

            Undecided voters aren't as rational as you think. Members of the political class may disparage undecided voters, but we at least tend to impute to them a basic rationality. We're giving them too much credit.

            Undecided voters do care about politics; they just don't enjoy politics. 

            A disturbing number of undecided voters are crypto-racist isolationists. 

            Undecided voters don't think in terms of issues. Perhaps the greatest myth about undecided voters is that they are undecided because of the "issues."

            … 

            The majority of undecided voters I spoke to couldn't name a single issue that was important to them. 

      • Nic the NZer 1.2.2

        "Warren and Buttigieg need to figure out that they are simply a massive drag on the chances of Sanders taking out Biden for the shot at Trump."

        Hilarious. Some how it didn't cross your mind that Waren and Buttigieg are the foe progressives and compete with Biden for votes.

        • Ad 1.2.2.1

          I'm not sure if you're mixing up "foe" or "faux", or indeed need a working definition of who is more progressive or left when discussing any of them. Go for it. I'd be happy for you to show some cross-polling on your contention.

           

          • Nic the NZer 1.2.2.1.1

            Such polling exists, not that polling data will make anything clear.

            • Ad 1.2.2.1.1.1

              Hilarious.

              • Nic the NZer

                If you think I am not highlighting the polling data because it makes your argument you would be wrong. You can google second tier candidates if you want to verify that. As i read it Buttigieg pulling probably goes for Biden and Waren is too close to call.

                But this is based on voters switching preferences in line with the model the poll uses, and there are far to many variables for me to consider that reliable evidence. Also ultimately the answer you get from any polling data will depend on a preconceived model the polling company constructs for how the election works. 

      • McFlock 1.2.3

        Bloomberg is betting that his path to victory has 8 or 9 zeros in it, lol

        there are still a dozen contenders. We haven't had a single primary yet. That's when shit will get frenzied and bitter and the minnows will drop off.

        Butthe one who wins will be pretty tough – although I doubt Biden will beat dolt45 if he gets the nom, unless he gets some spark from somewhere.

        • The Al1en 1.2.3.1

          Yeah, Biden wouldn't be in my top three picks, and I also don't fancy his chances should he likely win the dem nomination.

          But that aside, I'd want him over Trump any day of the week, weeks in a month, and months in a year etc.

          • McFlock 1.2.3.1.1

            oh fuck yes. Even chequebook bloomberg would be better than the current fool.

            • The Al1en 1.2.3.1.1.1

              Absolutely, which makes those 'my choice didn't get picked so I want the other side to win' types, appear somewhat ignorant and quite immature, socially and politically.

              • Nic the NZer

                Those people you are calling ignorant seemed highly aware that they got screwed over in the primary race. I don't think calling them ignorant to boot is convincing anyone that their are best represented by the Democrats.

                • McFlock

                  If they're so precious that they'll vote dolt45 because of comments on a NZ (or any) political blog, I doubt they'd ever have voted over their own ego no matter what people called them.

                  It screams more "I'm looking for an excuse to vote orange" than "oh dear, the one true saviour in the democratic party has been been so poorly treated by our alleged comrades that voting for the nazi-adjacent (Miller, Bannon, and others) is the only sensible course of action we can take to make life better for all americans".

                  • Nic the NZer

                    Its pretty well established that a sure fire way to win over the aggrieved is to dismiss their concerns as unimportant and accuse them of secretly harbouring malitious intent. 

                    You can collect your certificate in dispute resolution at the door.

                    • The Al1en

                      Winning over the aggrieved has nothing to do with 180 political flip flops just because your preferred candidate couldn't get through the selection process.

                      How any Sanders supporter, for example, could turn around and vote Trump sort of belies any claim to be a follower of democratic socialism in the first place. That's just f*cked up thinking, like how a soft left labour party isn't  radical enough, so you vote conservative or national instead. 🙄

                    • Nic the NZer []

                      I hope you refuse to accept conservatives money in the same way you don't regard their votes as worth having.

                    • Craig H []

                      I would guess that they prefer Trump's economic line of protectionism to the alternative. 

                    • The Al1en

                      I'd be very happy to see national or conservative voters switch over to labour, though they have absolutely nothing to do with the topic, or points I have contributed (supposed lefties switching to the other side because their choice of candidate doesn't get selected).

                    • McFlock

                      Sometimes the only resolution to a dispute is to accept that one party is intractable and go your separate ways.

                       

                  • Andre

                    Itchy middle finger.

              • Fuck yes.  When I was living in the Middle East, I saw someone write that a post on social media should win "The master sword of greatness."  I think you just won today's master sword of greatness.

    • adam 1.3

      With friends like warren who needs enemies. 



  1. Andre 2

    Rick Wilson as readable as ever …

    https://www.salon.com/2020/01/16/rick-wilson/

    Rick Wilson is a long-time Repug strategist that is also a hard-core never-Drumpfer. It's worth keeping that in the back of your mind while reading.

  2. Peter 3

    When the system runs its course and after the primaries a candidate of the quality of Trump is spewed (or shat) out, you know it's just a show like an LSD induced trip. That the ideal candidate could actually be a surreal, bizarre Mad Max character says it all.

    Then the realisation, a bit strange and a bit of a pity, that the circus has some fairly serious ramifications for the world. It is a most fantastic parody.

     

  3. A 4

    Just watched an interview with Robert Kyosaki talking about the book, "Who Stole My Pension?".  He said it was happening all around the world.  Thinking this may not apply to NZ I googled and found this 2017 news release.  I don't quite see it as stealing, more refusing to double up on payment.  Happy to be wrong about that.

  4. mosa 5

     This will have an impact on the race for some and ( maybe ) leave the way clear for others.

    " Four Democrats running to challenge United States President Donald Trump in November's general election have a new headache to deal with – a mandatory obligation that will keep them off the campaign trail for at least two weeks, if not longer "

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/trump-impeachment-trial-affect-2020-democratic-race-200116160003578.html

  5. AB 6

    There has to be a future PhD thesis titled something like: "Lightbulbs and the conservative mind: exploring fictional constructs of green authoritarianism".  We had our own version of it in 2008,  and here is Donald Trump with his take on the subject.

  6. Dennis Frank 7

    When is a dam not a dam?  When there's no river.  “Announcing the deal, officials and organisers have avoided using the word “dam”.” https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12300981

    "Technically, the project won't dam a river, but instead put a dam wall at the end of a valley to store water from nearby sources. The site would hold up to 18 million cubic metres of water and be able to irrigate about 10,000 hectares."

    A big win for NZF and regional development.  "But the Green Party says it's still undecided about whether to back the plan."  Probably checking out those "nearby sources".  Hope they are in contact with the affected regional community.

    ""Once finished, this project will provide a resilient freshwater supply for the area, leading to many benefits, such as providing support to sustainable agriculture and horticulture industries," Tabuteau said.  The plan has the backing of iwi, the three local councils and Greater Wellington Regional Council. Federated Farmers hailed the funding decision as "outstanding news"."

    • AB 7.1

      Interesting to know if ongoing extraction would be needed from "nearby sources" to keep the dam  full – or whether natural rainfall within the drainage catchment of the dam is sufficient, i.e. is it a one-off appropriation of a public resource to benefit the owners of agricultural businesses, or an ongoing one?

      • Dennis Frank 7.1.1

        I agree.  The report doesn't mention any opposition to the scheme so I suspect it may be mutual benefit.  We know what happened in nearby Hawkes Bay not long ago!

        But yes, the question of replenishment is crucial to prove resilience.  Sounds like Tabuteau believes in answers given on that question but the report doesn't elucidate.

      • Alice Tectonite 7.1.2

        Involves damming Black Creek, a tributary of the Waingawa River. (The not damming a river relies on the notion of a stream not being a river). Catchment area of Black Creek is too small to support the size of proposed irrigation source area, will definitely take from nearby sources.

        Mysteriously their website isn't working properly, but can be accessed through the wayback machine. Strangely they never mention which rivers they propose taking from, but the Waingawa is a pretty obvious contender.

  7. Dennis Frank 8

    The battle of the geriatrics is hotting up.  Once again, voters are feeling the bern!  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats-poll/sanders-climbs-now-tied-with-biden-among-registered-voters-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1ZG00D

    "U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has been steadily climbing in popularity this year and is now tied with former Vice President Joe Biden for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination among registered voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national poll.”

    “The poll shows that standing does not appear to have been hurt by his recent confrontation with Warren over Sanders’ views of women and politics.”

    “Warren, who is aligned with Sanders on a variety of issues, has accused him of telling her in 2018 that a woman could not be elected president. Sanders disputes that claim, and the two sniped at each other after this week’s presidential debate about how they were framing the conversation in public.”

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