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6:00 am, June 19th, 2016 - 95 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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With the widening gap in the polls between Clinton and Trump growing fast, the Republicans can now think about losing the 30 seats that would lose them Congress as well:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
If Trump keeps this up, I think we will see more and more mild Republicans head over towards Clinton.
Next test for them both: when the economic shockwaves from Brexit hit the US, which one has the more credible reaction and plan?
Nate Silver’s team have a little counterfactual at what the economic impacts could mean:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-brexit-could-mean-for-the-economy/
I think Brexit won’t actually happen, the polls are starting to swing back to Remain (since global markets are getting jittery).
Demographic polling shows that there is a distinct difference in preferences between the young and the old, with the young preferring to remain. This increases the chances that the polls being reported are wrong, since they have to have a Likely Voter model to weight the results, if this under-estimates the eventual share of young voters, then Remain will likely end up several points higher than the polls have been showing.
Since recent polling in the UK for the election and the Scottish independence vote have been very poor, I don’t think we should take the polls as-read (and my feeling is that Remain is under-sampled).
It will be interesting to see how this pans out Lanthanide. Polling has shown young people in Britain are firmly for Remain. But how many will actually vote? At my work place in Queenstown we’ve got lots of young Britons on working holidays and while they’re all, at least, tending towards Remain hardly any of them would consider entering a polling booth for any reason.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11659127
Aue ! Hannah Tamaki has a new motor.
The ‘Faster Paster’ screams over Mangere Bridge at 239 kph……..a sway of coiffed bleached hair, an outlandishly extended eyelash……..concealing the obscenity of Te Puea Marae to her left.
The Heavenly Master is aghasta of course !
the sadistic bearded skyfairy does not give a flying fuck.
Fixed that for ya.
is this a timid approach by a NZ Herald Stenographer trying to appeal to our current National Party led government that excels in doing nothing ? Oh well…….too little too late.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/81165587/stacey-kirk-a-cold-week-in-politics-as-government-fuels-fires-with-ice
Covering Bennetts arse again. Either Bennett is a callous creep, or a gossip that cannot keep a secret.
she is both.
But was it a secret? I gather it was well known in some circles. Unfortunately Labour making a mountain out of a molehill again.
Yep whereas National are trying to make the housing crisis mountain into a molehill again, unfortunately for a bunch of homeless.
I agree Gangnam and further I read a report that the Marae chief thought he was speaking confidentially…. really hard to know what the true facts are.
It isn’t the first time that Bennett has placed confidential information into the public arena.
Oh, if there’s doubt as to what the facts really are, the solution is easy: the benefit of the doubt doesn’t go to the proven liar with a history of leaking personal details.
I have to disagree with you on this; in the court of justice you’re innocent till proven guilty, beyond reasonable doubt, and a jury won’t be allowed to know of the accused’s (criminal) history till after the trial.
Don’t you think these standards are also suitable and appropriate for ‘trials in public’?
Nope.
We’re not sentencing people to prison. Screw those jerks.
Unless the media people say they got this information from someone else entirely, it’s perfectly fair to work on the assumption that bennett has, yet again, treated her position with incompetence and contempt and used her privileged position to launch patty political smears, or allowd her office to do so.
Trouble is you are letting your political beliefs influence your judgement.
So, basically, if I wasn’t anti-national I’d ignore the fact that Bennett has history of releasing personal information, I’d ignore the coincidental nature of the information getting out just after she met with the guy, and I’d throw my hands in the air and say “gee willakers, I’m honour-bound to give equal weight to the facts and her denials, I guess we will never know the truth so I will pretend this never happened”?
Yeah, nah. There is a possibility that she or her office didn’t leak it, that it’s all a setup. But I’d need to hear that from a third party to believe it. That’s not unfair, or bullying, or whatever. That’s a liar reaping the credibility that they sow.
Well this, at the start of the article, is pretty damning:
“It’s a cold Government that pays lip service to refugees, vetoes parents having more time with their children and leaks personal details of a man trying to help with Auckland’s homeless crisis. But this one did. And all in the space of a week.”
The “run of surpluses” Double-Dipton has supposedly achieved are now in some doubt since the last report on government finances a couple of weeks ago showed a billion going missing.
It is only a matter of time before a mega killer heatwave strikes Australia, seeing thousands of Australians fleeing across the Tasman in fear of their lives.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/120-degrees-western-wildfires-explode-triple-digit-heat-wave-way-n594071
A single heatwave is not going to send Australians to New Zealand to live permanently. I doubt if it would even send very many here to ‘ride it out’ – perhaps if it lasted a week or more in some cities.
And some people may be shocked by the waves of hot air that make it across the Tasman to give NZ a nasty blast… We will not go unscathed.
So Andrew Little acknowledges that he lied about John Shewan. He releases his apology two hours before the test match on a Saturday hoping for minimal coverage.Too bad he was unable to man up and apologise to the Hagamans. Still best not to have to fight two defamation cases at the same time. Problem is that given how likely he is to speak without fully engaging his brain I wonder how many more defamations cases he will cause.
[Your next comment had better be proof of your assertion that Little has acknowledged that he lied or an apology to Little for making a false statement or you’re leaving us for an extended period. TRP]
Little lied his arse off, he’s not sorry in the slightest.
Does show he’s got form for lying and muck racking though, which gives a ton of weight to Hagamans defamation case
Lol form for lieing, your kidding right?, I forgot mother Teressa was John Keys mum, and he is the only person on the planet God asks forgiveness from.
BTW, i’m trying to help you and Fisi out here, but it would be nicer if the two of you at least tried to hold a sensible conversation about things occasionally, instead of popping in with your wild exagerations at times.
Or do you work for National and have no interest in listening only dictating how it should be?
Relying on the accuracy of an off-ashore newspaper is always a big risk. Little made a mistake and has apologised. That is the mark of a person with integrity – unlike the present incumbent PM and his mob of sycophants like fisiani and BM.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11659052
It’s in the paper and actually fisiani is correct Andrew came out and apologized and admitted he was wrong about Sherwin.
I’ll tell you this moderators, your bullying, end of.
I’ve been threated with BANS, by Marty, Lprent, and you edited a post and went on one yesterday.
I’m not on Fisi’s side, but stop fkn threatening everyone with bans dickheads.
Here http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11659052
ban me then
[Fisiani has made a very specific claim. It’s up to him to prove it or apologise or he’s gone. If you’re that keen on not commenting here, you could simply not comment. But any further abuse and your wish will be granted. Which would be a shame, because when you’re not ranting, you often make sense. TRP]
No, Andrew said he made a mistake based on wrong information, not made up a lie, read it again. Ban the shit stirrer.
He twisted it to being a lie agreed, is that worthy of threatening a ban is it?
Nazi much?
It is you and fisiani doing the twisting Richardrawshark.
You both seem to have trouble with Honest-Andrew’s approach. When he makes an honest mistake, having relied on newspaper reports that turn out to be inaccurate, he simply admits it, meets the person in question and apologizes.
Now if we had a PM who did this he would have more respect across the spectrum. Instead we have a PM who lies often and never admits it.
Wrong BG, I don’t agree with Fisi saying he lied, in fact if you read my statements and posts not once do I say Andrew lied.
I’m not getting drawn into that.
I will defend someones right, no matter how much I detest there political point of view, to have that point of view. As much as I would if it was taken from me.
“Wrong BG, I don’t agree with Fisi saying he lied …”
“It’s in the paper and actually fisiani is correct …”
Some mistake, surely?
Do I need a lawyer to read my posts before printing to check that in no way possible can it be used to promote a point of view different to the context it was made in?
JFC
Nope. Just accepting that you forgot what you’d wrote a few minutes earlier would be fine 😉
Goodbye TRP, enjoy the Standard.
I see your point TRP, I had thought you were saying to Fisi that Andrew had no made ANY post at all when he did and to prove the post by linking it. I stepped in as I had also read the post on the Herald and linked it..
I think the truth is you knew there was a post but Andrew had said he was wrong where fisi said he made public apology for lieing.
My total bad.
Sorry guys my appologies, I should not post early till me tablets kick in.
Doesn’t change my opinion on the often used sledgehammer though.
No sweat, mate! You and Andrew Little both seem able to take some responsibility when it’s needed. Not so sure that fisiani is made of the same stuff.
“Labour leader Andrew Little has admitted he was wrong when he said two months ago that John Shewan advised the Bahamas government on how to maintain the islands’ tax haven status.”
Frankly he lied TRP what do you call saying something that is factually incorrect. Is wrong , is not the truth.
these things are also called lies.
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/little-admits-bahamas-accusation-was-wrong/ar-AAhgjfj?li=BBqdk7Q&ocid=iehp
Now it’s also on MSN.
reading it, although this pains me significantly and i’m not saying this as any form of get back at you.
It’s just ..arghhhhh owwww he’s kind of.arghhhh right. ughhh
croak, wheeze dies.
Wrong. A lie is when you purposefully misrepresent the facts while knowing the truth. Andrew Little didn’t do that. He represented the data that he had. The data turned out to be wrong.
In fact, if we used your logic, you would actually be lying in this entire thread.
With that apology, you show you are more graceful than most here. Well played Sir.
-DTB, yeah I see your point there. Ta.
-Mr Little said statements he made in April were based on a report in a Bahamas newspaper.
weak very weak from little and his strategy team, and using a newspaper report “JHC”, wouldn’t have been an opposition paper there would it? Regardless, newspaper reports any reports need facts checking, you and all involved in the media and politics know that DTB.
If he’s not guilty of deliberately lieing, then he shows a lack of professionalism for not checking his attack would hold up under scrutiny and not backfire on him, which seems to be bloody common from all Politicians these days..
Seems the authenticity of reports, is less important, than it’s usefulness to your political message!
I agree. He didn’t lie. But he made a serious allegation based on a purported single report in a Bahamas newspaper. Which he has not cited. So we cannot even check what that newspaper reported or the weight a reasonable person would attach to such a report.
So no he didn’t lie. But neither was it a mistake. It was a defamatory statement based on a willful disregard of the evidence required to support such a statement.
The threats to me are not tolerable unless deserved, people will get excited, this is a political forum, here we have a left blog with guest, some of them we have had here a long time like BM Fisi etc. We all know what they are like.
Last two days the ban threats and moderation has gone overboard. You can take that critisim on or threaten me again. Up to you.
But one more and I am gone. I just don’t enjoy people who want freedom of speech but deny it to others for weak things like their enjoyment when we do something wrong. fairs, fair.
I also posted the link, (wrong, lied), I’ve seen worse exagerations here over what some of the Nats have said being twisted.
Take it on Mods, just calm down a touch or find other ways you can keep a semblance of order without using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
“Goodbye TRP, enjoy the Standard.” Richardrawshark @ 11.41am.
I thought you had already gone. IMO you suggesting a couple of days back that a couple of people here ‘end it’ because they didn’t agree with your point of view, should have had you permanently banned. You are the epitome of why The Standard can be a very toxic place to be in.
& some ‘lefties’ condemned what he said Ben, or did you forget that, so fuck off with the faux concern yeah?
Actually where would you go, Kiwiblog or WO? Are you showing ‘concern & outrage’ on those blogs too for their toxic comments? Or just here?
Thanks for reinforcing my comment with more abuse GS. Typical weak comeback. Has the comment been deleted? Can’t be bothered looking, but I suspect it’s still there.
FYI, for all its faults, WO moderation is strict and simply telling someone to FO would be met with a temp ban and a warning. Personal attacks and abuse used to be common, but for the last couple of years it has been pretty strict becuase so many people read the blog (it hurts I know) and they lifted their game. You might not like Slater, or the politics on the site, but it’s a whole lot more savory than here, with a number of regular female posters.
I’m amazed how anyone that posts a differing view here is met with abuse, called a RWNJ, or commonly met with the ‘faux concern’ response. It’s not called an echo chamber for nothing.
Slater’s numbers look like they’ve bottomed out completely since Dirty Politics. And he’s relying almost completely on those horrid advertisements, too – the site’s littered with them. No doubt a sign he’s lost a ton of regular advertising support. An apt fate for the kind of place he runs.
It’s PC gone mad Ben!
No I didn’t, we already discussed and ended that conversation Ben.
Depends on how you infer something as a dig or as literal. trying to say I was asking people to kill themselves literally..having a face to face with you would be difficult if your going to react like that to what comes out as language when people are talking,
Take a hike, jump off a cliff, hang yourself, go fly a kite, give me a break etc etc etc
I noticed here though more than other forums some of the commenters love to hate, yet are the first to condemn it.
You take a dig at someone and they get all holier than thou and accuse you of having bad intentions.
it’s really quite utterly pathetic, Ben.
What business is it of yours Ben? Desperate to spread your negativity?
When you post on a public forum, does it not become everyone’s business? Taking offence to your post was not negativity, it was merely expressing my offence. Based on your posting history, I suspect there was more venom in your comment than your lengthy explaining tries to portray. As Mr Little is finding out, perception is everything.
I do enjoy how you come back for a second bite, responding to your own comments. Dwell much?
remember party line telephones, where anyone could pick up the phone and listen in, not cool very frowned upon
Remember CB’s where you have chats with people but there was a code of conduct.
Remember BBS’s same thing, forums, now blogs, you can butt in, but your the one who may end up looking like a meddler interferer and stirrer.
but up to you Ben I got better things to do atm.
I just think, Andrew’s trying to copy Keys style of saying the first thing that pops in his head for media attention.
I don’t think he’s guilty of anything aka the Hagamans BM, your grasping just a tad too far there, as I’ve said saying something like a government deal looks dodgy is his job, and it’s vague enough, the claims on Sherwin were mouth before brain BS and your bang on , on that.
We need better opposition and leadership, IMHO.
The person or team leading labours strategy are weak, and in a month when gifts dropped from heaven, we should have seen a no confidence having been thrown in and a testing of their partner parties,.
weak, very weak and now embarrassing.
Yeah Andrew should wait for some polling results before he makes a statement (sarc). Or he can lead & make mistakes & apologise & move on, or have you not ever made an honest mistake? I for one like Little, he’s got guts unlike the current PM.
To be honest G my opinion on Andrew’s still undecided, Cunnliffe is ten times the PM that Andrew is.
I agree with you there about Cunliffe, but Little is there right now, & not doing too bad a job & he gets all the right wing trolls fizzing & spewing so can’t be too bad eh.
I enjoy laughing at their desperation of trying to make these disasters look good.
Don’t you?
The excuses and justifications are side splittingly funny in their pathetic-ness, what would we do without them.
Little’s Preferred PM stats are worse than Goff, Shearer, or Cunliffe.
He needs to stop these excuses and damn well perform better.
You either have the ability to think on your feet and hold a debate, with class and dignity, Lange had that in spades, Cunnliffe has it, Andrew doesn’t, that’s how Richie see’s it sadly.
hmm self edit, I do think Andrew is good at debating, it’s better said, I think Cunnliffe’s excellent and perfoms better at it.
Where Andrew looks uncomfortable, Cunnlife looks at ease.
Wasn’t Helen Clark at 3% before serving 3 terms as PM???
Go back and check.
And stop making excuses for Little. He isn’t.
-Ad Can’t ditch him, that would be 4… must cheer.. must be brave, and have faith.
It says a lot about the health of newspapers world-wide. Why bother to produce these crap papers if one cannot trust a word they publish. It has become a world where you have to do your own research before you can open your bloody mouth – what an indictment that is where lying is just like breathing. Our NZ Herald is testament to that, we are on a month’s trial with the paper after we gave it the boot 3 years ago – today’s issue (like every day’s issue) is unmitigated garbage – I just cannot believe that readers digest this muck – at least for a month we have liners for the cat’s litter tray. Good on Andrew Little for doing the correct thing and apologising for his mistaking and expecting news in a Bahamas newspaper to be the truth when it was the usual lazy journalism at fault and lies.
Yeah at least Cunnliffe used the word sorry when apologising for being a man. Didn’t see sorry from Little. Oh well one down and one to go.
Here’s a big word for you Dale, ‘context’, look it up.
TRP I find your casuistry gobsmacking. You are quibbling about the definition of a
“lie” .
Where is the corresponding beratement of Blip long list of so called lies by John Key…………?
http://thestandard.org.nz/?s=Blip%27s+of+lies&isopen=none&search_posts=true&search_comments=true&search_sortby=date
Andrew Little did not tell the truth about John Shewan.
He has acknowleged this.
His acknowledging that he did not tell the truth does not constitute telling a lie???? Are you serious?
Let me quote you the definition of Lie
noun
1.
a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood.
Synonyms: prevarication, falsification.
Antonyms: truth.
2.
something intended or serving to convey a false impression; imposture:
His flashy car was a lie that deceived no one.
3.
an inaccurate or false statement; a falsehood.
4.
the charge or accusation of telling a lie:
He flung the lie back at his accusers.
verb (used without object), lied, lying.
5.
to speak falsely or utter untruth knowingly, as with intent to deceive.
Synonyms: prevaricate, fib.
6.
to express what is false; convey a false impression.
verb (used with object), lied, lying.
7.
to bring about or affect by lying (often used reflexively):
to lie oneself out of a difficulty; accustomed to lying his way out of difficulties.
An inaccurate or false statement constitutes a lie.
Andrew Little admitted that he did not speak the truth. He admits that he conveyed a false impression
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/306724/little-admits-bahamas-accusation-was-wrong
There is the proof that you asked for!!!
OK, you worked hard on your homework and you spared us your presence for the best part of the day. Win/win, I reckon.
Well done fisiani. I’ll bookmark that comment for next time John Key moves his lips! Win/Win alright!
The Nation has said Govt Agencies are dropping off people at Te Puea Marae to be housed.
I hope they are coming with the $5k resettlement allowance!!
https://berniesanders.com/Stream/
Thanks Jenny. First time I have heard Bernie give a full speech.
Vice Watch
In a world with any respect for the rule of law, or even elementary decency, these two men would be rotting in prison, not striking poses like they’re doing here….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGZTFg8PP9Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14Cu4M-6FGw
“L’hypocrisie est un hommage que le vice rend à la vertu.”
—-François de La Rochefoucauld
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/81089975/sanders-declines-to-endorse-clinton-vows-real-change
As Bernie Sanders prepares to fight for reforms inside the Democratic Party Convention, his political slogan has become –
“Justice or Bust.”
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/06/09/bernie-or-bust-no-its-justice-or-bust
How Sanders shepherds his supporters after the Democratic Convention is a Bobby Kennedy moment for US liberals. Bernies’ campaign team are leaving it really late to generate a full-throated reform movement.
I hope Bernie and team have both the wisdom and the skill to avoid Black Lives Matter and Occupy aimlessness and dissolution.
I’ve just put up a post about the Mana party that touches on how a movement can be built by testing the waters at local level. That’s what Sanders has suggested his supporters do:
https://berniesanders.com/press-release/thousands-potential-candidates-respond-sanders-appeal/
I saw those Sanders links.
He’s too equivocal, unstructured, and very late. I hope it works.
I think I know what you’re saying: cease the moment or opportunity, keep the momentum and build it or grow it. Right?
Although it might be disheartening or frustrating even when certain things don’t eventuate at first and seemingly disappear into oblivion I think this often is because of our short-sighted view and impatience and single-minded focus on one particular outcome or ‘destination’ – associated thinking is “the end justifies the means”.
Very recently, Rosie and weka used the metaphor of waves and indeed there’s a groundswell that may be largely undetectable but the waves of change are clearly visible on the surface.
Change does not always follow a linear direct path, in space or in time; it meanders, it oscillates & vibrates.
Human development is similarly characterised by taking baby steps in the beginning and falling down and getting up again, which is how we ‘learn to walk’. This applies to all levels of development (and evolution).
Another way of saying more or less the same thing is this well-known and beautiful quote from Ovid:
If Sanders is telling the truth, he wants a revolution, not mithering from rhe Greeks. He set the high expectation, and it’s up to him to follow through.
Carpe the freaking Diem, Bernie.
O.k. Ad, fine with me; I think Sanders (and his supporters) will continue to go down the path wherever it leads.
BTW, Ovid was from Rome, the quote was in Latin, and so is yours 😉
Justice or bust?
Cabinet seats or bust?
At the last election the Green Party agreed to drop all bottom lines to get seats in cabinet.
Play the game, drop your principles, and we will make a space for you at the table.
As the Green Party goes into another election cycle and shut their mouths over “Climate Justice” they hope this strategy will get them seats at the table.
Announcing the launch of a big “Centrepiece Environmental Campaign”. I was terribly disappointed when the Green Party Centrepiece Environmental Campaign turned out to be a repackaging of the Green Party’s Clean Rivers Campaign, with which they have fought the last two elections.
What had raised my expectations in James Shaw’s campaign for co-leader, he named climate change as his number one priority, and reiterated this promise on becoming co-leader. This was in contrast to Russell Norman who had been the main leading promoter for keeping climate change in the background.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11435086
James Shaw’s Maiden Speech
Talking Climate with James Shaw
And so the backsliding has begun…..
Wecome to MMP Jenny, and give them a break.
You should thank your lucky stars you’ve got the best Green Party in the world right here.
I’d have said welcome to MMP Jenny where you get to, every three years, pick from a list of Mainly Munted Parties made up of Mostly Munted People to run your life for the next three years, choose carefully.
🙂
Obviously, you understand very little of what MMP is intended to achieve;-))
I expect better of them than you do Ad.
Memorandum of Understanding
clause 2. b) “Working Together”
Where Labour and the Green Party (“may”) agree to work together to support each other’s Members’ Bills and Supplementary Order Papers.
If the MoU is worth anything, then the Green Party need to start putting up private member bills on climate change and challenge the Labour Party to support them.
Will they do it?
Will the Green Party try and shift the national debate on climate change?
Or will the Green Party “Swimmable Rivers Centrepiece Campaign” smother any debate of climate change?
why has @NZStuff removed THIS story? about Mike Hosking bullying co-workers?
https://twitter.com/ArrestJK/status/744384477049151490
Note to commenters; we’ve had an issue over the weekend with a small number of regular commenters (and an author or two) having some of their contributions held in moderation until release by a mod.
It’s a bit beyond me, but hopefully it’s not an issue that’s with us too long. No point listing all the commenters affected, but marty mars is one of the ones that seems to have copped it most often.
So, apologies if some or all of your comments don’t immediately appear, but the mods will let them out as soon as they’re spotted.
Thanks – hope it’s fixed soon.
Me too. It’s been a pain manually releasing them (and there were a couple criticising me I was tempted to leave in limbo. No names, no pack drill, but weka will know who I’m talking about). But I’m off to the pub to watch the Warriors stuff Easts, so I’ll be out of the loop for a couple of hours. Hopefully another mod will take my place.
This was just on the news: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/stop-giving-hustlers-money-homeless-man-says-cash-donations-only-cause-problems
Homeless person saying don’t give homeless people money.
Community law person saying don’t give homeless people money.
Shopkeeper saying don’t give homeless people money.
Member of the public saying don’t give homeless people money.
They’re probably spending it on drugs.. thoughts?
I was pulled up outside the supermarket in the suburbs the other day by a kid who looked like he was living on the street who came running after me asking for money, I gave him some. It was the first time in suburbia though I’ve been asked.
Talking about DC Today makes me wish to say this
David Cunnliffe is one of NZ’s best parliamentarians IMHO, he has so much to offer the people of NZ.
I find it highly offensive he’s back benched and his skills and intelligence are left to rot in a corner due to infighting and bickering, I think the Labour party has a duty to the people who voted for DC to include him in a capacity that reflects the talents he has to offer, and stops the ABC BS.
Rise above it Labour, he, like Liam Neeson has a particular set of skills.
Cunliffe is one of the very few Labour MPs to put the National regime under sustained pressure.
Don’t know why lots of comments are going to moderation (especially weka and marty mars). Lprent?