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6:00 am, September 20th, 2015 - 73 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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I know that a lot here think that Corbyn winning the Labour election shows that “this is what the people want” and its a “start of a move to the left”.
So – hows it actually going?
One of Labours largest doners are saying roll him or he will fund a new party:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11877103/Labour-donor-Assem-Allam-tells-MPs-to-topple-Jeremy-Corbyn.html
72% of the population dont think he looks like a prime minister in waiting, and 37% of Labour voters were less likely to support Labour in the next election
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/19/uk-britain-politics-corbyn-idUKKCN0RJ0AX20150919
Im thinking looking at who he’s adding to his shadow cabinet – its only going to get worse.
I have always argued that the guy would be a disaster – Plenty of time for me to be proven wrong – But Im still thinking its looking good for the Tory’s moving forward.
Edit – Doing my morning reading – here is a good one:
Why destroy Corbyn, when you can use him to destroy Labour:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/16/jeremy-corbyn-tories-destroy-labour
Tory think Corbyn not a Tory!
Wake up James!
This is what really is happening.
Now you either are unaware of the fact that the British establishment,
Including the Tories and their owned media, are determined to destroy Corbyn, which I doubt …..
or you are a repeater of their toxic lies.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/owen-jones-right-are-mocking-jeremy-corbyn-because-secretly-they-fear-him
Paul,
I deliberately didnt link to things like that – and I agree there are plenty of them.
But what I did point to were a) a HUGE labour funder who is pushing to drop Corbyn, or he will fund a new party.
Do you really think thats down to “the media” or do you think its a “toxic lie”
and b) Polls showing a HUGE %age of Labour voters are moving to the Tories – Funnily enough a similar %age to the number of Labour members who didnt vote for him in the leadership race.
Again – they are most likely not to be swayed by “right wing media” as they are Labour voters.
But hey – keep your tinfoil hat on and think perhaps, just perhaps the guys viewed as an idiot by a lot of people.
Plenty of other facts like most of his front bench not wanting to serve under him – did they all chose to do this because of “the media” – or perhaps there is a bit of truth outside “your world” that the guys an idiot and most of the voting public can see this?
Also – why is it left wingers that often think they are the only ones who can see thru “the biased media” and everyone else is a sheep / idiot / right winger. Cracks me up.
” b) Polls showing a HUGE %age of Labour voters are moving to the Tories – Funnily enough a similar %age to the number of Labour members who didnt vote for him in the leadership race.”
if true (and hard to confirm and even more difficult to believe) then it merely confirms the accusation that there is little discernible difference between the Blairites and the Tories…fifth column?
“Polls showing a HUGE %age of Labour voters are moving to the Tories”
Ahhhhh, no, that’s complete and utter bollocks, isn’t it.
20% of Labour supporters say they are “more likely” to vote Conservative as a result of the new leadership. ie more likely than they were before the leadership election, not that it’s more likely than not that they’ll defect (which seems to be what you’re implying).
As a leading figure for pollster, YouGov has said (in a critique of this ORB Poll and the way it’s been reported), “more or less likely is not a particularly high criteria to meet – less likely is a long way short of not going to. So a headline like The Independent’s today saying Corbyn loses fifth of Labour voters based on 20% of Labour voters agreeing with a statement that with Corbyn as leader they are more likely to vote Tory is over-egging it. Those voters aren’t necessarily lost, they may still vote Labour tomorrow, their likelihood of voting Labour has just dropped to some degree.”
Meanwhile, here’s some interesting data from the poll that you “inadvertently” failed to mention …
ORB Poll for The Independent
More likely to vote Labour with Corbyn leading the Party
SNP supporters 36%
Lib Dem supporters 27%
Ukip supporters 20%
Tory supporters 8%
Incidentally, 63% of Labour supporters said they were more likely to vote Labour as a result of Corbyn’s election. No doubt many will be core supporters who wouldn’t consider voting any other way and are simply wanting to boost Corbyn’s and Labour’s chances, but it’s also likely that a section of this 63% will genuinely be more likely to turn out at the next election for the Party now that they have a leader offering a real alternative.
I’m not going to pretend the findings overall are pleasant reading, but considering the firestorm of abuse and ridicule and vitriol he’s had to suffer over the last couple of months and especially the last week, it’s not exactly a massive surprise.
“Plenty of time for me to be proven wrong”
You’ve never spoken a truer word
Meanwhile, the 4 latest Party Support Polls conducted since Corbyn’s election (compared to previous results from same Pollster)
ICM (11-13 Sep)
Labour cuts Tory lead from 9 to 6 points
Com Res (16-17 Sep)
Labour cuts Tory lead from 14 to 12 points
Opinium (15-18 Sep)
No other post-Election Opinium Poll to compare this one with but Tories are just 5 points ahead of Labour in this Poll.
YouGov (15-16 Sep)
Labour cuts Tory lead from 11 to 8 points
And more of the electoral evidence that really matters….
Labour vote up in all 4 local body by-election seats a couple of days ago.
Up more than 7 points in one of its London council seats and up more than 5 points in a county council seat in Tory rural Yorkshire.
And a few more stats from the latest poll to be released – raising questions about just how comparatively “unpopular” Corbyn is.
This is from the Com Res Poll (16-17 Sep)
And bear in mind that, after making recent changes to its methodology, Com Res tends to show bigger Conservative leads than other Pollsters. So, if anything, these may err towards a slight inflation of Tory support and sentiment (although, impossible to know for sure).
Views of Leading Politicians
…………………Favourable………Unfavourable
Corbyn…………..24%…………………..42%
Cameron……….35%…………………..42%
Osborne………..25%…………………..42%
Clegg…………….18%……………………45%
Farron…………….6%…………………….18%
(Farron = new Lib Dem leader)
So, Corbyn’s no more disliked than PM Cameron or Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne. His ratings are, in fact, almost exactly the same as Osborne (who is being groomed to take the Tory leadership at some time in the future) and the only difference with Cameron is that Corbyn has a higher ‘Don’t Know’ / lower favourability %. Raises serious questions about the depiction of Corbyn as overwhelmingly unpopular.
Only 10% of Labour supporters have an unfavourable view of Corbyn.
More than half of middle-aged respondents and Ukip supporters feel unfavourable towards Tory PM Cameron.
……………………………….Agree…..Disagree…..Don’t Know
Corbyn danger to………35%…………34%…………..31%
National Security
Cameron danger to……25%…………53%…………..22%
National Security
Corbyn danger to………37%………….31%……………32%
Economic Security
Corbyn should have…..50%………….29%……………21%
sung the National Anthem
Corbyn offers a………….41%………….31%……………28%
positive difference
from other politicians
Corbyn should …………..22%………….54%……………23%
smarten up
his appearance by
shaving off his beard
At 70, Corbyn too……….40%…………..41%……………19%
old to be PM
Corbyn is …………………..37%…………..37%…………..26%
being treated
unfairly by the media
Corbyn is …………………..52%………….22%…………….26%
making more people
interested in politics
Overall, public sentiment regarding Corbyn is rather less clear-cut than James’ arguments might suggest.
Oh – and see my link – they are not trying to destroy Corbyn – they are using him to destroy Labour. 😉
Which is where you and they are wrong again. Their attacks on Corbyn are bolstering support for Labour as the RWNJs, including you, show just how nasty they are.
+ 1 exactly!
If he can replace his big funders with many thousands of individuals he might become the leader of a peoples party ,but I expect that’s what the right fear.
Your’er right.
Losing your largest financial backers who start offering to fund a ‘break out’ party is positive news for labour and should be viewed as such. The right are correct to fear this.
Mean while in the real world JAPAN BEAT South africa in RWC.
And that …. was AWESOME !!!!!
Eddie Jones ,fantastic coach…the same man who showed up AB’s coach John Mitchell for the fraud he was.
If I was the AB’s I would be thinking about this result very carefully – I wouldn’t be sending the B Team out against Argentina. Who would have thought of it – there’s going to be some fun and games (excuse the pun) over the next 3 weeks. Good on Japan for their effort and bringing some unpredictability into the rest of the games.
Barbara – the AB’s have already named their team. It was a full strength one.
Thanks James for that, now the AB’s just need to pray that some of their prize show ponies don’t limp off in the first 10 minutes of play in the early games like some of them have a habit of doing. Also the young fella who has had his native doctor fix up his leg, let’s hope it doesn’t let him down or Hansen will be rueing he put him in the team in place of Israel Dagg and Cory Jane.
Just been to https://howgood.com It takes NZ postcodes and has a drop down list of my local stores. Nice.
where are the NZ bits? I can only see the US one.
The EU have recognised the pitfalls in the current Investor State Dispute System and has proposed an alternative. The National Party shut down the chance to debate the merits and flaws of ISDS in our Parliament by not even letting Fletcher Tabuteau’s Bill get to a first reading.
The EU have published their proposed new version for discussion. This is how rules and regulations should be made- by common agreement FOLLOWING input from all
interested parties/stakeholders. Tim Groser doesn’t consider the public to be stakeholders.
“Brussels, 16 September 2015
The European Commission has approved its proposal for a new and transparent system for resolving disputes between investors and states – the Investment Court System.
The Investment Court System would replace the existing investor-to-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism in all ongoing and future EU investment negotiations, including the EU-US talks on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).”
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5651_en.htm
What Is This Horrible Feeling Jeremy Corbyn Stirs In Me?
by PADDY McGUFFIN, Morning Star, 19 September 2015
Well, I hope you’re happy now you selfish bastards. You got what you wanted. Thanks to you Labour now has a leader with dignity, honour, compassion and above all honesty and integrity. In a very real sense Labour has become Labour again for the first time in a generation.
Shit.
Oh, it’s alright for you lot, with your demands for social justice and fairness but did any of you once give a thought to those of us who toil at the coalface of savage abuse, misanthropy and satire?
No.
Some of us have spent a large portion of our lives howling at the moon and attacking the New Labour project under first “El Presidente” Tony Blair and then “Dead Ed” Miliband. To borrow a phrase from the late demented Hunter S Thompson, this column beat New Labour like a gong, every chance it got.
He had Nixon and the campaign to re-elect the president, I had Blair and his neoliberal megalomaniacal mendacity.
Multiple illegal wars, anti-trade union legislation, PFI, flogging arms to despots.
I used to have to get up early just to make sure I could fit all the anger and hatred in.
And of course it wasn’t just Blair, there was a whole gallery of grotesques and hypocrites to pick from.
A quick glance at the front benches and you could have been at the Nuremberg trials.
Then of course there was the charisma vacuum of the Miliband years which saw the party not so much bring the fight to the Tories as bleat pathetically on the sidelines that it wasn’t fair.
The sheer spinelessness of Miliband was a thing of wonder, you were amazed he could actually stand up at Prime Minister’s Questions — and then promptly wished he hadn’t.
Read more
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-8ffe-What-is-this-horrible-feeling-Jeremy-Corbyn-stirs-in-me#.Vf3gTuD7JFR
This is some great stuff here http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-wont-stop-until-everyone-in-britain-is-offended-10506322.html
“The other complaint about his Shadow Cabinet was the low number of women appointed, only 16 out of 31 rather than the half he promised.” & “As he’s been leader for five days now, the press are calming down a bit. By tomorrow headlines will only say things like, “Cor-Bin Laden will force pets to be Muslim”, followed by an interview with 89-year-old Vera, who says: “It’s not fair because my hamster’s scared of burqas. That’s the last time I’ll vote Labour.”” & many more…
Morrisey
Thanks
I like this bit :
“At least with Blair you had to spend a moment working out what he was lying about this time and why. With Miliband you didn’t have to bother”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/72073486/schoolgirl-inventor-forced-to-take-product-offshore
A great invention by a teenager, stymied by the cost of building in NZ and what apears to gaming by the company who were building the device.
A real shame for the sort of innovator NZ needs
Short story: Private Equity firm takes over real industry, promptly destroys it trying to extract monopoly rents. In the process, wrecks promising little export business.
It is, in sum, the story of New Zealand’s manufacturing/industrial sector since the 1980s. Incompetent and greedy rentiers from the finance sector ransack the productive sector searching for short term windfall profits.
Sorry, but in a world of climate change and peak everything, it’s crazy to be making such items from heavy metal in NZ and then shipping them internationally. Such things should be made for local markets eg in the US they should be made there, probably in-state. It makes more sense to them to manufacture in situ.
“Millions of dollars are at stake.”
Which suggestst that this is about making money and that they are at the entry level of the same game the big boys are playing and getting a slap down. Because that’s how the game is played. There are other ways to make a living and do business.
With the way 3d printing is rapidly evolving I would think that the future lies in going into a shop getting them to print you’re kindling splitter or what ever and a fee being played to the holder of the patent. That would mean the raw materials could come from the nearest available point.
I hope it’s not actionable to suggest that I would not like to do business with Mr Ayers. I suspect getting everything in writing wouldn’t help much. He no doubt views this as ‘leverage’.
Why do we never see these decent reporters on TV?
State Department spokespersons—it’s Jen Psaki in the following clip—often flounder under a wave of questions by reporters like we see here. However, these revealing encounters never make it on to the nightly news. It can’t be because anyone thinks these gruelling encounters are boring; they are anything but. Jen Psaki has obviously undergone extensive media training, but she is unable to maintain her condescending smile to the end here: unwilling to engage and clearly losing her composure, she eventually brushes off further questions: “I’m done.”
So why do we never see these reporters on our TV screens, but are instead forced to suffer the likes of government-friendly “reporters” like Patrick Gower in New Zealand, Jeremy Paxman in the UK and Matt Lauer in the USA?
‘This is what you cook for Ukraine?’ State Dept Psaki grilled over leaked tape
I doubt if our local media really want the public to see the job done properly. Their expectations might rise.
http://tewharewhero.blogspot.co.nz/2015/09/what-sort-of-police-service-do-we-want.html
It’s a long post but contains some important data -in light of the increasing number of people dying as a result of being shot by police.
There have been 3 fatal police shootings between May and September this year – one of those shot was unarmed and none had harmed anyone.
Of the last 7 people shot by police, 6 were Maori. Of the total 31 who have been shot, 13 were Maori.
Disturbingly few were the archetypical violent career criminal we might expect to be most likely to be shot by police; a lot were petty criminals, mentally ill, intoxicated, in the grip of a personal crisis.
In light of the steady move to a general arming of a police force which is almost as big as the defence force – these are huge issues.
This is an excellent post TeWhareWhero, and would make a great guest repost on the Standard.
It gathers together a lot of evidence about the increasing use of weapons by police that confirms a gut feeling I had about the recent spate of police shootings. Thank you.
+2, thanks for highlighting this.
And in how many of the shootings have police been found to have been in the wrong?
The people being shot are the ones to blame for causing the situation in the majority of circumstances.
Perhaps we should look at them closer.
‘Perhaps we should look at them closer.’
Or we could look closer at why society is producing more people that are in such a state that they end up running in to the sharp end of the law.
+1, we don’t analyse and problem solve what bought the person to be carrying a weapon and a possible risk to the public, instead we ignore all that and look for bandaid solutions like security guards at WINZ offices and police armed with more and more weaponry. Those kind of responses have a good chance of increasing the problem I would say.
@james “And in how many of the shootings have police been FOUND TO HAVE BEEN (my caps) in the wrong? “…. NEVER NOT ONCE. well that does make some of us think! !! others may prefer not to.
Did you read the blog post James?
I have looked very closely at all of those who died – as much as I can with what is in the public domain. When I started looking into the sort of people the police shoot I thought it would be mostly violent and hardened criminals. I knew of some shootings which gave me concern – Wallace and Bellingham being two cases in particular – but I was shocked by what I found.
Most of those who have been shot are petty and often disorganised criminals, mentally ill, intoxicated and distressed / confused people.
Very few had killed other people – 2 of these were mass murderers.
Others might have killed if they had not been shot first – they might equally have been persuaded to give themselves up.
Of course most of the people who died played a part in their death but to say they ’caused’ it is simplistic in the extreme.
The IPCA has never overturned the findings of the internal police enquiries into fatal shootings by police officers. It has found sometimes glaring errors of judgement and procedure but in all 27 cases investigated thus far, the IPCA has found that lethal force was justified.
if it wasn’t justified there would be grounds for a homicide prosecution because the police do not have an automatic right – thankfully – to kill people whether by shooting, or by asphyxiation when restraining them, or by causing fatal crashes when in pursuit.
Police are as bound to uphold the law as we are – well, in theory at least because they investigate themselves and have every expectation that the IPCA will not contradict the findings of that internal enquiry.
There are 8400 sworn police officers, almost of whom already have or soon will have access to firearms and some of whom are equipped to military standards.
We have a defence force of 9200 plus 2000 reservists.
Is NZ really such a violent and lawless place that we need an armed police force almost as large as the Defence Force?
Others might have killed if they had not been shot first – they might equally have been persuaded to give themselves up.
50/50, huh? Given those odds, my vote goes to “Munter gets holes in him.”
Is NZ really such a violent and lawless place that we need an armed police force almost as large as the Defence Force?
This is the wrong way around. Yes, NZ has such extensive natural defences that it needs armed forces not much larger than its police force.
Why free speech is integral to the intellectual life of our universities
How long before we see such stifling regulations here in NZ from our present authoritarian, anti-democratic government?
Too late Draco – NZ got there ages ago!
Another appalling puff piece on Key by the propaganda tabloid rag the Herald.
Key..compared to Kennedy.
Unbelievable.
They have no shame.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11516001
+100 Paul…and this sick making from the Herald…Ironies MUCH!
‘Max Key – I’ll get you into Harvard’
“Max Key has joined a team of graduates helping young Kiwis gain entrance into institutions like Cambridge, Oxford and Harvard…
The Prime Minister’s son is studying commerce and property at the University of Auckland…
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11513568
…Where is a critical msm?
…when many of New Zealand’s brightest university graduates ( straight ‘A’s in some cases in rather more profound subjects than property speculation) can not afford to do honours at New Zealand universities , even when invited to by university academics who regard them as their brightest students!
…and when many, if not most, young New Zealanders can not afford to own property because they are in so much student debt and house prices have gone way beyond their reach… thanks to foreign buy ups of New Zealand housing allowed by jonkey Nactional
Kennedy was shot!!
Goes to a charity event for cancer and gives a speech about changing the flag…
/facepalm
I don’t think Key could show his disconnection from reality any better.
it is all about himself and his ego
You all seem very reticent on the travesty of justice that is taking place on monday. I would have thought that the takeover of our police and justice system by corporate America would be of some concern to thestandard commenters
what?
Kim Dotcom extradition hearing starts.
thanks veuto, I assumed so but prefer people who are being snarky to also be explicit if they want some attention.
@ xanthe …you are behind the times ….this was thrashed out on ‘Open Mike’ on the 17th….and for excitement one person was banned for defamation ( smirk)…actually two people were banned but one was banned for a very long time….and he deserved it!
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17092015/
At the risk of repetition:
‘2 reasons why you as a New Zealander should care about the Kim Dotcom case’
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/09/17/2-reasons-why-you-as-a-new-zealander-should-care-about-the-kim-dotcom-case/
To summarise:
1.)The first reason is the injustice of the case:
2.) The second reason is what it could cost New Zealand in damages:
$2 Billion dollars…
…”Sony decided not to sign up to the case against Dotcom because they believed there was a chance he would get off these trumped up charges and in turn sue everyone involved in taking him down to the tune of $2billion???
And we had to sign up to this?
So how much exactly are we on the hook for here? If you don’t care that he has been unjustly dealt with and his rights breached, you may be in for one hell of a shock if he wins and we are left paying for this politically motivated prosecution….
never mind the $2 billion will be better spent with kim
he intends to use it (from twitter) to
”
Build a high tech school
Build a children’s hospital
Fund 100yrs of Internet Party
”
Go Kim !
@ xanthe +100….GO Kim!…may he sue and win every cent!
Letter from John Minto and the Left in support of Kim Dotcom
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/09/20/open-letter-to-kim-dotcom/
If Craig Joubert were a judge, he’d be
pretty much identical to this hapless woman
South Africa’s “non-referee” Craig Joubert became infamous for his refusal to stop the All Blacks’ concerted strategy of cheating in the 2011 RWC final. [1] How many of us were aware that almost exactly two years earlier, Joubert’s failure to do his job was being uncannily foreshadowed in an Arizona courtroom? A shameful, shameful performance indeed…..
Deputy Takes Papers From Defense Table
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XBqetaCfgo
Weird! Wonder what happened next?
He ended up in the slam….
Officer Refuses to Apologize For Taking Paper Goes to Jail
LPrent will probably appreciate this one 😈
[lprent: Indeed ]
On polls.
Landline only polls are decried but are we forgetting that the people who have landlines are the people who actually vote? Are we forgetting that, as has been pointed out today, under 50% of 18-29 year olds (the mobile-only generation) actually vote?
I’m pretty sure that a lot, if not all, polling companies now call mobiles as well. Roy Morgan does.
It was Tiger eat a keeper day today at Hamilton Zoo.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/72226055/tiger-kills-keeper-at-hamilton-zoo
Commiserations to the family of the deceased but surely this death is just another of the seemingly weekly workplace deaths we read about in John Key’s New Zealand.
He, by dint of ideologically driven health and safety policy, appears to not give a shit about workplace deaths.
hi muttonbird,
i echo your commiserations to the kudeweh family.
it is sort of notable that it is a rare death of a female in the workplace.
What a tragedy!!
Just imagine the amount of money this man could have made, fate can be cruel.
https://twitter.com/avancenz/status/645420332715671553
😆 He’s a danger to our shipping.
TV3: 3 News/Reid Research poll today plus the flag poll:
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/political-poll-support-low-for-flag-change-2015092016#disqus_thread
Jaysus. Can you imagine Gower emailing those people for a one word answer? As if that’s the new media.
How embarrassing is this type of journalism from the dropped pie himself?
Patrick Gower = increasingly irrelevant and soon to be totally irrelevant.
Most of these so called journalists (churnalists) seem to think that it is the right thing to do to try to trip up the opposition leaders and show them in a poor light rather than to hold the government to serious account.
I do not understand why these journalists behave in this shoddy manner.
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/political-poll-support-low-for-flag-change-2015092016#axzz3mEe9MTaq
New poll out.
Now you have seen the final four flags, do you?
Want to change the flag: 25 percent
Keep the current flag: 69 percent
Don’t know: 6 percent
More than 2/3 of the country want to keep the current flag.
…and here is the political poll:
National: 47.3 percent (up 0.3 percent)
Labour: 33 percent (up 1.9 percent)
Greens: 10 percent (down 1.4 percent)
NZ First: 7.9 percent(down 0.5 percent)
ACT: 0.6 percent (up 0.1 percent)
Maori Party: 0.5 percent (down 0.1 percent)
Conservative: 0.5 percent (down 0.2 percent)
United Future 0 percent (down 0.1 percent)
This is Labour’s first time hitting 33 percent since June 2012, so a 3-year high for Labour. That’s good. But NZF would hold the balance of power.
“But NZF would hold the balance of power’
Personally I prefer a Labour led government with the Greens and NZF together for balance and long life, like 2, 3 or 4 terms if all behave well politically within reason.
If that is not possible for any reason, then if numbers work out, then
Just Labour+NZF will be quite fine for a reasonable tenure, like 2 or 3 terms.
or
Just Labour +Greens will be ok, but risky to endure a longer tenure. May be just 1 or 2 terms.
This is of course MY personal feeling.