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6:00 am, September 21st, 2023 - 79 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Score card for the Leaders Debate:
Natz win! Outstanding performance by Natz leader Christopher Luxon!
In the category of answers ‘Mostly Untrue’ and ‘False’ – Luxon 6, Hipkins 0.
Such a one-sided contest!
https://twitter.com/Kiwi_Rascal/status/1704488484939964922
Luxon reminds me more and more of a beauty queen contestant. I am just waiting for him to offer to bring about world peace, cure cancer and end poverty and hunger. No idea how he is going to do any of his 'pledges' but winning is his goal.
So true Janice.
Well done Mr Luxon. Now he is on a roll he can practise lots more lies and half truths. He gets away with it and what better incentive than getting way with it so far.
Can you elaborate a bit? What's he done this time?
Open the tweet in 1 above.
I think it is now getting to the panic stage….
I can't see any circuit breaker or reason why the polls would turn. What event or circumstance could possibly bring people over to the left?
This fear is enhanced when you look at the combined Nact vote over the past 5 elections. With exception of 2020, they basically have an entrenched 46% base. How do we get those people to move now?
2008 48.58%
2011 48.38%
2014 47.73%
2017 44.95%
2020 33.17%
2023 48.1% (curia poll of polls)
We can't wait for National to 'run out of steam' as a government.
A post-October election Labour leadership should just go back to the work that Robertson and Parker prepared for Budget 2023. Being credible on tax is the only way to defeat National.
An adventurous Labour leadership would talk to the Greens about a common tax policy that helps workers and beneficiaries. It has been so easy for National to use the Greens as the boogeyman on tax and that will continue until Labour and Greens settle their tax platform together.
Should do it now, as was done with Ardern taking over. Why wait?
Labour lost all credibility on tax when they ruled out taxing wealth – after their own report clearly showed how unjust the current tax system is (and previously, their own tax working group recommended capital taxes). And Labour took a huge risk and went out on a limb against public opinion, to protect the super wealthy. Ardern did the same with her blanket rejection of capital taxes, so it must be a really important core value for Labour to defend inequality and unjust tax.
Polls consistently show strong support for increasing tax on wealth (e.g. 63% support for wealth tax to fund dental care), but Labour knows better.
No one except the Green Party is proposing a wealth tax, and even with a following wind and a pole vault they aren't seeing 88% of New Zealand voters liking that Green tax policy.
Under no form of coalition government will there be a wealth tax implemented.
So that's the Greens sitting out on the tax limb there.
Te Pāti Māori: Suite of tax changes with $30k tax-free bracket, change brackets in favour of lower earnings, remove GST from all food, introduce wealth, foreign companies, land banking and vacant house taxes, increase company tax rate to former 33% rate (policy here).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/news-extras/story/2018902030/election-2023-rnz-s-guide-to-party-policy
On a limb with Te Pati Maori…who propose more aggressive wealth taxes than the Greens.
NACT could get 45% and lose.
Lab 30 Gr 14 TPM 4 NZF 4.9 means a Left government.
The Greens are on a roll, TPM and Labour may well pick up some of the 12 % undecided.
Let it go.
It's better for the cortizone levels right now just to let this one go.
You gave up on Labour long ago Ad.
Not even in Waitaki have I stopped donating, delivering pamphlets, and putting up hoardings. You should have joined us for lunch at Urban Grind on Sunday.
Perfectly possible to know we will lose and also be resolute.
Otherwise I wouldn't have fought campaigns in which we got caned in 2008, 2011, 2014, and in the 2021 Auckland mayoral contest.
But you DON'T know we will lose….the Greens (who I vote for) may come to the rescue.
completely agree. It's baffling that people want to give up. Even if the left does lose we still need as many MPs in parliament as possible. But it ain't over until it's over. Maybe NZF fucks up and drops below 5%. Maybe there's a big flood that wakes people up. Maybe it's really tight and Nact voters don't turn out because they think it's a done deal and LW party members door knocking and leaflet dropping tip the left over the edge to a win.
Got flooding and a wild fire within about 400kms
His cortizone levels will be the same as yours.
What would happ6if te parti Maori got 7 seats and labour got 30%, the greens 12%
TPM get lots of seats but the right probably still win because of the weird overhang thing.
We would have 123 MPs under this scenario, and Nact would have 63 of them (assuming NZF were under 5%)
https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/#!|percentage|ACT%20New%20Zealand,10,1|Animal%20Justice%20Party%20Aotearoa%20New%20Zealand,,|Aotearoa%20Legalise%20Cannabis%20Party,,|DemocracyNZ,,|Democratic%20Alliance,,|Freedoms%20New%20Zealand,,|Leighton%20Baker%20Party,,|New%20Conservatives,,|New%20Nation%20Party,,|New%20Zealand%20First%20Party,4.9,|New%20Zealand%20Labour%20Party,30,|New%20Zealand%20Loyal,,|NewZeal,,|NZ%20Outdoors%20&%20Freedom%20Party,,|Te%20P%C4%81ti%20M%C4%81ori,3,7|The%20Greens%60%20The%20Green%20Party%20of%20Aotearoa/New%20Zealand,12,1|The%20New%20Zealand%20National%20Party,40,|The%20Opportunities%20Party%20(TOP),,|Vision%20New%20Zealand,,|Women's%20Rights%20Party,,|Other%20party%201,,
link to calculation
I'm not clear whether Bwaghorn is proposing that TPM win all of the Maori seats, but only their current 2% or so of the party vote (which would create the overhang you've outlined).
IMO, this scenario is virtually impossible. Take Waikato-Hauraki, for example: unless Mahuta effectively tells the electorate, 'I'm retiring, don't vote for me, vote for the TPM candidate' – she's going to win that seat.
Or whether Bwaghorn is proposing that TPM get over 5% of the party vote (which is not impossible, they've polled higher this year), which would result in 7 seats.
This is more realistic – but would almost certainly come at the expense of the GP and/or Labour vote (or at least it has in polling this year). The only caveat to this, is if TPM voters are being missed by the current polling measurements (not impossible, this demographic is often undercounted) AND those potential TPM voters actually get out and vote (a much more problematic issue – they often don't)
Either scenario requires an effective shift of at least 5% from the 'right' to the 'left' – regardless of which left party that vote ends up in. That's the bit that we're not seeing in the current polls.
Was wondering if a cup of tea was needed , labour would need to shift its Maori mps up the list for it to work ,
Too late, the list has been published for 2023.
Not worth a cup of tea then
On TV1 News last night there was an item in which Zelensky accused Russia of using food as a weapon. Perhaps Russia and the West need to come to an agreement: the West refrains from supplying weapons and other military hardware to Ukraine, and Russia, in return, ensures that food supplies get through.
No F***ing way.
Your suggestion is to reward 'Putin the Tiny' for his murderous, criminal actions.
Shame on you
mikesh is one of those depressingly common types who spend their whole time railing against western imperialism while bending over backwards to justify Russian imperialism and genocide, and hating on the military industrial complexx as evil under all circumstances, while hailing the glorious and unstoppable military might of Russia.
[mikesh is one of those depressingly common types who spend their whole time railing against western imperialism]
I don't rail against Western (NATO) imperialism (though a good case might be made for doing so). However, Zelensky is a hypocrite.
Speaking of hyprocrisy, I have noticed your repeated calls for Iran and North Korea to cease their supply of arms to russia.
I don't think I have ever spoken of Iran or North Korea.
Russia, as I understand it, broke off the agreement to allow Ukrainian wheat passage because NATO was smuggling weapons into Ukraine under cover of that agreement. So it seems hypocritical of Zelensky to accuse Russia of “weaponising food”.
"I don't think I have ever spoken of Iran or North Korea."
Precisely my point. They are delivering weapons to this conflict also – albeit the side of the aggressor.
But the pro-Putin "anti-war" types never seem to comment, they only complain about the weapons supplied to Ukraine – the country that was needlessly invaded and is being ruthlessly brutalised by russia. They are deafeningly silent about weapons being supplied to the attacker.
"Putin the Tiny" is a pragmatist, who knows what has to be done to ensure Russia's long term security/.
Dismantling and removing memorials associated with Soviet oppression and raising a statue in tribute to Dzerzhinsky is pragmatic?
/
He'll go down in Russian history as a fool.
Germany had agreed to be an economic partner of Russia, Nordstrom, and maintained 1% defence spending 2014-2021 (when NATO required an increase to 2% by 2024) – they did not want to work with Trump and his GOP (untrustworthy). It was the beginning of the end of NATO.
Then Putin in Feb 2022 … the German response was swift. And Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
Now Russia has two alternatives, be a subordinate of the alternate hegemony of China (pretending it's a partnership), or post Putin join NATO. Both suck. He's cost them their independence.
and who has made it clear to everyone that joining NATO is an excellent idea.
But when Russia applied to join, and I understand they have made several attempts, they have been turned down. Says it all really.
Now Russia has two alternatives, be a subordinate of the alternate hegemony of China (pretending it's a partnership), or post Putin join NATO. Both suck. He's cost them their independence.
Russia will never be allowed to join NATO, even post Putin, unless they adopt American style neoliberalism, which would allow America to exploit them economically, for her own advantage. That's what Putin is fighting to prevent, in this war. The first moves in this war occurred when a US inspired (fascist?) coup took place in Ukraine, and involved the unconstitutional dumping of the pro Russian president.
The Ukrainians, for all their heroism, and I admit their defence has been heroic, have acted like a bunch of cretins, foolishly teaming up with the evil empire simply to preserve their sovereignty, which Russia was not actually threatening prior to the events of 2014.
Actually, he is an evil imperialist who invades peaceful neighbours, undertakes mass murder, torture, rape and genocide, and who has made it clear to everyone that joining NATO is an excellent idea. At home, he suffocates his own population with relentless propaganda and oppression, starting from childhood.
But I suppose all evil could be excused as being “pragmatic”, by those who support it.
and who has made it clear to everyone that joining NATO is an excellent idea.
But when Russia applied to join, and I understand they have made several attempts, they have been turned down. Says it all really.
Being declined membership into a voluntary defence alliance, is hardly cause to launch wars of aggression on many of your neighbours and to commit ubiquitous war crimes abroad and ruthlessly suppress your own population.
You make it sound like everyone but russia, is responsible for russia's actions.
Mikesh torture rape deliberately targeting hospitals. What do you propose to stop Putins War crimes..
please fix your username
2020 was an anomalous result – and was effectively a vote of confidence in Ardern for her handling of Covid to that date.
Everyone seems to accept that it was a result which is never likely to be repeated again.
However, your chosen period reflects a decade of National government (hence the high percentages). Even in the 2017 election, there wasn't a huge appetite for a change of government (certainly not before Ardern took over as Labour leader)
If you go back to the previous electorate period (5th Labour government) – you get National/ACT totals in the 30s.
What would shift the current 48% centre right total?
Some suggestions (mostly long term ones)
Shit is going down in Queenstown, and the mayor says it highlights the need for the 3 Waters reforms:
"The person who receives a compliance order must comply with it and meet the costs of doing so. Failure to comply with the order is an offence, with a maximum fine of $300,000 for a corporate body.
Queenstown's compliance order will give council engineers legal reinforcement to act quickly and decisively. But this goes to the guts of why the Three Waters reforms are important, Lewers admits.
The council should have had a protozoa barrier in place at its Two Mile plant, one of the biggest in the district. Indeed, the council work plan lists that as a necessary upgrade to reach full Drinking Water Quality Assurance Rules compliance – but it hadn’t found the funding.
"We've got other intakes in a similar situation, and we're progressively upgrading them as we go," he says.
Recently they've done Arrowtown, they're commissioning the Shotover bores now, they've reached an agreement with Cardrona, and there are still more to do. "I think Two Mile is probably the most difficult and the most expensive," he says. "So we were still working through the options of what to do."
There are two types of barrier. There’s UV treatment, which is cheap and easy and the council will probably set in place now – but it’s not very effective.
Far better is membrane filtration, which has a pore size of 0.1–0.5µm and removes particles, bacteria and protozoa from water. (It’s less effective for viruses – that’s why every water plant needs an array of three or four treatments.)
But membrane filtration is expensive. Lewers says the council had estimates running into the tens of millions of dollars.
Queenstown has "heightened cost pressures" because of the combination of high residential growth and an extremely high visitor load, he says.
But there are many other councils around the country with drinking water and wastewater plants that aren't up to consentable standards, nor up to the new water-quality bar. "This does highlight the challenges," Lewers says. "It also, I think, reinforces the need for water reform."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lack-of-water-treatment-highlights-urgency-of-three-waters-reforms-admits-queenstown-mayor
There's around 150,000 overseas visitors in town at the moment, plus about 30,000 locals.
This is far bigger in scale than Havelock North already.
Lol- infrastructure in NZ:
There are first world countries, third world countries and Simeon Brown run countries.
Don’t drink the water, don’t breathe the air…
It also shows how messed up that Labour couldn’t put together a palatable reform given the obvious need.
I've realised you're right. Took a while, but I've been thinking too many other thoughts. No sign yet of Stuff figuring it out, nor the Herald, nor TVNZ, nor Newshub. Slackers all!
If the msm pull finger they might get there within 24 hours of reaction time. If any of the neolib parties show leadership on the issue, the excitement could infuse the campaign. Nah, no chance, given their turgid mental processes.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lack-of-water-treatment-highlights-urgency-of-three-waters-reforms-admits-queenstown-mayor
So Queenstown is in the crap. In a world of ‘every man for himself’ and ‘socialism is bad’ I expect that the National MP, all of his supporters and the Act side of the government after October will be saying, ‘Tough titty, that’s your problem. Government isn’t a charity, let us know how you get on.’
So you would expect.
But another neoliberal creed of Natz and Act is – socialise the costs and privatise the profits.
Don't hold your breath.
Act will probably bargain basement sell water supplies to companies so they can make a profit from publicly owned and built infrastructure
The playground of the rich can't pay for their own sewerage upgrades lol.
If they can afford those house prices they can afford a sewerage levy from the council until the problem is fixed.
That'll become $2,000,000 very quickly if national wins!!
Queenstown houses are obviously "aspirational".
Which makes their ability to pay for their own sewerage system upgrade even more evident….
Apparently we have a problem with people under 14 stealing stuff – no legal liability and they can refuse to answer police questions (at best they can make it a youth and family court matter).
Maybe it's a time for creative solutions.
Creative solutions maybe, but not the dreaded Mosquito. This pernicious device uses sound as a weapon against those young enough to hear it. It effectively makes being young a punishable crime in certain areas. It was so abused in the UK that it had to be banned.
How about creating spaces where young people (and everyone) can go and exist, without the expectation of having to spend money?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jun/28/manilow-mosquito-youthwave-teenagers
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2010/jun/24/mosquito-youth-dispersal-alarms-face-ban
The dairy is not a public space, shopkeepers have the right to ban people from them.
Well of course, but the creep factor is what is worrying. How long till they're just put up outside? What's the effect on wildlife, public health?
Anyway, there is no device that works on people under 14 only, but that's fine, ban everyone under 25?
These devices are available to buy in New Zealand and unregulated, as far as I know.
The manufacturer has made a device that is heard by youth (up to 25). The ability to hear the higher frequency goes down over the years.
Rules around device licensing is required to regulate manufacture and then use. We could allow devices of a certain range (of frequency, a little higher and under 20 etc or of distance) for specific purposes and then they could be manufactured accordingly.
Shops could ask local police for one if under 14's are stealing stuff – maybe allocated while this remains a problem. Siting could be based on the range to secure the premises (10 metres not necessarily a standard 15 etc) and maybe within the shop.
So how do the under-14s (including toddlers) who are legitimately accompanied by a parent, enter the shop without discomfort (or even pain)?
Surely it would be easier in your world to just shut down all venues which might be robbed.
My world? In our world these devices are legal now. And in our world under 14’s are going into dairy’s and taking stuff again and again and police say all that the shop owner can do is ban them from the shop – they come in anyway.
As these are not ramraids there is no national publicity.
https://www.slsrtc.co.nz/anti-graffiti
http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/north-harbour-news/8566227/New-steps-give-minor-offences-a-hammering
Ideally devices would be activated once someone banned from the shop entered, or was loitering outside with others also banned.
Things like DNA spray do not work with under 14’s as they cannot be prosecuted.
If it is not curbed people will close their shops as they cannot generate a profit because of the theft.
In that scenario, I'd expect to see shop-owners sued by the parents of toddlers (for example) who have had their hearing assaulted through no fault of their own.
Surely it would be much more effective to actually deal with the juvenile criminals.
You do realise that the under 14's do not do it while others are in the dairy?
Community policing is going to have to provide a methodology beyond saying ban them from the shop (they come back anyhow), or maybe identify via CCTV (but the only option is family court atm).
An alternative to that might be to offer the shop owners some sort of dye to spray on the hands and or clothes (that washes off).
Really? I've seen plenty of shoplifters in my time – and mostly they want others in the shop, which distracts the shopkeeper and camouflages their actions.
Effective sanctions (I agree that 'ban them from the shop', with no societal enforcement is worse than useless) – is a better solution.
Not shoplifters under 14 already banned from the shop …it’s a safety in numbers thing.
In a neighbourhood dairy someone might know them and thus the parents can be contacted.
Totally untrue.
A recent debate in parliament indicating there was no UK ban.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-06-16/debates/81F70BB5-C4E4-46A2-98F2-D53618641550/Anti-LoiteringDevicesSafety
Wow, I thought it had been banned. It's worse that I thought then.
Private citizens have bought them and use them to control neighbouring sections – they have their section quiet because the neighbours children do not go outside to play because of the noise.
Regulation is required alright.
Is NAct 'culture' progressive and effective? Kiwis don't need to vote NAct to find out.
So we now have no recession (most likely never was one) with an increase in GDP, and now contaminated water in Queenstown.
Labour = Good economic managers
Three Waters = Very sensible policy for clean water
National = No idea on economics
Tax cuts for the wealthy = Trickle Up economics
Labour and Left/supporters needs to be loud hailing this from the rooftops………
Fking Aye! Very well summed. Fight back ..and into 'em !
Nicely put Kat…and true. Suddenly the Nats and ACT running around like headless chickens screaming “recession” looks idiotic.
Holy heck, Mike Hoskins gave Luxon (by the standards of Newstalk National Party) a grilling this morning – will he work with Winston First. Luxon struggled to give a yes or no answer but essentially he said yes if he needs to – coalition of chaos.
Btw you can listen online like I did when someone pointed it out to me, you don;t actually have to listen to the station live
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300974737/live-act-waters-down-tax-cuts-commits-to-raising-pension-age
Another reason for looking after yourself, an underfunded health system, and thus a focus on being able to afford a good home and health insurance and a good private school for the children (or the entry price for a posh suburb school zone).
Of Epsom, by Epsom and for Epsom. The gated community class order spokesperson.
A detailed guide to the facts and fiction from the leaders' debate:
Behind the fact-check – details from the first leaders' debate (1news.co.nz)
(apologies if already posted, but it's worth reading)
Just one example:
"Luxon’s claim that every single health outcome has gone backwards under Labour is untrue. Most of the main health outcomes have remained the same or improved – general mortality, cancer, infant mortality, maternal health."
I check most NZ media each day and this is the first time I've seen this spelled out.
But I've seen dozens of news reports and commentary since the debate telling us who they think "won". There have been far more of those than reports on what is true or false.
The above link is from the TVNZ website, so they deserve credit for that. Any chance they could pass it on to their own political editor, so she could actually do her job for once?
Liar Luxon? Some Kiwis just lap it up – seems lying is a bit of a vote-winner.
So call Luxon on his lies, repeatedly – the Nats are a smoke and mirrors party.
Re Queenstown crypto, a Dr Smith solution could work wonders – simply lower drinkable water standards so enterprise QT can start humming again. Nats really are ratbags.
RNZ reported extensively on some of Luxon’s lies regarding Health yesterday: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/498394/the-falsehood-christopher-luxon-was-allowed-to-repeat-in-the-leaders-debate
[from my comment https://thestandard.org.nz/the-great-debate/#comment-1968992]