Translation: centrists are non-aligned. Having to often make this point since I first started commenting here I'll just observe that all those captured in the binary political frame still find it hard to look outside and notice that a third of the electorate have escaped.
"“The purpose of the National Party is to govern the country,” a National MP explained to me recently, “and that’s hard to do well, as those muppets-” he jerked his head at the Beehive, “are finding out”. During her first term Ardern has spent a lot of her time and communications expertise delicately explaining why she wasn’t going to stand down another incompetent minister, or why her government had abandoned yet another campaign promise, or why some new jaw-dropping ethical scandal in her cabinet was none of her business."
That's Labour normalcy, right there. The pandemic-induced poll results will mask the reality for a while, and commentators here with starry eyes will believe their own misread and promote the notion that Labour shifted out of their normalcy into a new age. Then Labour MPs will return to normal. They can't help it.
"I like to think New Zealand voters will continue to support Ardern for as long as she continues to do her job well (and some of this success seems to involve keeping most of her cabinet in a sub-basement of the Beehive “to guard the bee”, as the Simpsons gag went, a joke currently popular in Wellington political circles)."
Protect the PM by confining the Labour mediocrities to the basement seems sensible, but could prove impractical. I'd allow them out on controlled walks, at least. Even better would be to give them this work schedule: track down the missing million and convert them into Labour voters. Of course the consequences would be negligible, but it would be a valuable learning experience for them.
I look across this Cabinet and really miss Cullen, Maharey, Cunliffe, Anderton. Even little energisers like Harre and Fitzsimmons. They achieved more than survival.
We're going into an election with results saying 'well, we survived'.
Ad we have more than survived. This Govt have eradicated the virus…This is the most significant thing that can happen in terms of getting the economy going again.
I note on a previous post you were emphasising Muller's experience in business, govt university etc, etc…..
This is how I see it. This Govt has done a amazing job in the most challenging situation our country has faced for decades. It wasn't just Jacinda. Each and everyone of those ministers had stuff to get done, and get down they did. Whether it was housing all homeless people very quickly, setting up a site for people to report price gauging, getting Kiwi's stranded back from overseas, setting up quarantine, organising schools for learning from home, setting up a job subsidy, small business loan, setting up employment agencies across NZ, getting shovel ready jobs across the line as soon as possible, getting environmental jobs up and running, the huge amount of work to support the health system cope with the crisis, getting a trade agreement with Singapore in Covid times (thanks Parker), ensuring supply routes via airlines to make sure vital medical supplies etc were protected. ………..
Imagining trinary voting blocs instead of binary does a disservice to pretty much everyone who thinks the whole "floating voter" concept is bullshit (and his link article isn't too much better). It's a democracy, there are a gazillion reasons why people change their vote or don't vote. Attraciting them isn't as simple as appealing to one voting bloc – there isn't a clearly "centrist" policy line to support or oppose (like asset sales or environmental issues).
Reducing government to a couple of ministerial cockups is likewise bullshit.
Many but not all voters are too lazy and apathetic, simply stick with tribal BAU, and vote accordingly. People are complex beings and to reduce their behaviour to simple binary or trinary choices is simplistic.
Please note that my comment was deliberately ambiguous and neutral in intention 😉
I was not saying DF was right but rather that the labels, and labels in general, are irrelevant and unhelpful in addressing the question of being right or wrong or the actual issue itself.
The problem with blog format is that it operates like a broadcast, so a commenter addresses an audience (largely anonymous) while responding to another commenter. So the conversation stream is group discourse as much as dialogue. Nuances work well with those who are on your wavelength but are lost on most participants, so we end up painting with a broad brush more often than not.
The antique binary frame is the traditional default. My attempt to reframe as triadic is the simplest possible improvement. The real world is way more complex, but people do group in relation to other groups, and voters have established the three-way split in all western countries (more than 30 years ago) so there's a realistic basis for triangulating.
If you don't like this medium, there are others. Do a fecking podcast.
As for "traditional defaults", when power structures tend towards two or three blocs (be they electoral or sociopolitical or hereditary) bi/trinary are fine for describing the competing groups, but not the motivations of the members of those groups. To use it to describe the latter is shallow, pseudointellectual punditry.
What makes me, specifically, yawn is that you use enough words to make more sophisticated points but only present trivial observations that a two-bit assistant political reporter could present in a one-minute piece to camera.
There are lots of models to use when one can't identify specific policy points that have obvious core sector support. My personal favourite is a rough-Weberian approach: three gauges showing the traditional, charismatic, and bureaucratic support for a leadership candidate or group. But there are others that have similar usability and much more sophisticated analyses than just adding another group to a binary model. Seriously, the net improvement to the resolution of analyses between a binary and trinary system is negligible. Why do you think media love "the floating voter" as a concept? It looks deep but adds little to their workload.
You want a demo? Muller's not going to significantly improve the lot of the National party. Why?
His parliamentary and professional esperience revolves around primary industry and trade. Ardern, for example, had diverse policy roles before the leadership. Muller has come out of nowhere. He hasn't obviously demonstrated competence, therefore his bureaucratic merits for leadership seem to be lacking. Additionally, National has spent two years shitting on the government without presenting any viable, or even specific, alternatives to government approaches. When govt says "L3", nats say "L4 now!". When govt says "L4", nats say "L2 as soon as possible, you're playing it too safe!".
Charisma: Todd Who-ller? Prior to Leadership, people knew who Ardern was. Similarly, the rest of the nats are largely "who" or "ew" for many voters ("ew" is often referred to as "polarising", means nats will vote for them but thousands wouldn't).
Traditional support: well, the nats are down to their dyed in the wool supporters. They need a good policy platform and some charisma to get back into contention, and in mmp they're doing it without mates. The leadership change might be enough for NZ1 to go with them, but even then it's a big ask.
Now lets look at a trinary analysis:
um, they need to take some floating voters of Labour somehow. Then they will win. Otherwise they might lose.
I haven't allocated a common motivation to centrists because there has never been one evident. The subgroup that operate as swing-voters does share a motivation: to change the govt. However the recent polls suggest a centrist shift 4 or 5 times that size. You can only read their common motivation as disgust with National's leader & endorsement of Labour's – but likely to be ephemeral.
Re trivial observations, any communicator has to pitch to the average grasp of the audience. If I pointed out that there is substantial metaphysical basis for seeing a triadic structure to be fundamental to both nature and the psyche I'd lose them real fast.
Re Muller's prospects as a leader, I've made my prediction. If time proves me right, will you remember to give me credit for it? People usually don't. If I can be bothered pointing it out to them they fall back on the Reagan defense ("I can't remember"). However, I will quite happily acknowledge it if time proves you right.
Lack of charisma may limit his prospects. He could be the kind of person who flourishes in a leadership role however, so could remedy that lack eventually.
Your policy point seems merely partisan. I'm likewise unimpressed but I don't discount the tribal affiliations that empower their policies. If he tweaks the mix to appeal to centrists as well as Nats he will pull more of them back across the line – but his team will have to pull together fast & efficiently to make that happen before the election, and I don't rate their collective abilities any higher than Labour's. I don't expect him to win the election at this stage but reckon pulling National back into the 40s is likely.
Dennis, there is only reality. Do you disagree, regarding climate change, there is only 10 years to do anything to save the species? But the party political reality is down to the next 3 years, and all about mortgages. And no one accepts the real reality. We here on the NZ Left blogs exact the fluff from our tummy buttons. And, may I say, from extensive stomachs, as the most damning evidence.
My grasp of climate science in historical context suggests the species isn't under immediate threat like you imply. I see a seriously-worsening future, but over a much longer timeframe.
Gaia will keep experimenting with different culling mechanisms, and some may cull more extensively than others. The four horsemen of the apocalypse seem to canter toward us in a fairly leisurely manner, often pausing awhile to allow their horses to crop the grass. But I've been watching carefully since Hansen first sounded the alarm long ago so I feel no need to persuade anyone. Sheeple see no wolf. Crying wolf keeps failing to work. Duh!!
Longer timeframe to the past, sees poverty. It's not a 'laid-on' sort of feast, our days. Mind-bending, anti-rationalists on Left blogs. And everyone picking points rather than addressing what matters most.
Binary and trinary framing have their use but are crude models and have many limitations. This can and does lead to all sorts of problems in analysis and discourse. It is as useful or useless as GDP or CPI as a measure of how well off I am. People don’t group in relation to other groups, politically. That’s just lazy bollocks. People have many different views on many different things. Then some clever cookies device a questionnaire and plot your aggregate answer on a 2-dimnesional graph, which they overlay with half a dozen parties. Next they suggest that you most align with (x,y) and thus with party P3. Next thing is that you believe that you group or are grouped with like-minded people who all align with Party P3’s policies and values. This is a form of unintentional (?) conditioning based on a mathematical projection onto a plane. Psychology is full of this Factor Analysis, etc. Doesn’t help you much when you see a psychologist for therapy.
Anyway, this is not the most interesting part of your comment.
This is a political blog site and I can’t quite remember the stats but IIRC many readers are returning and (semi-)regular readers. You can give them some credit for being able to understand most comments here as long as the English language hasn’t been mangled too much (it happens).
Secondly, it is very hard but it is possible to explain even the most complex things in plain simple language so that most interested people can follow and understand it. In science there is now a sub-field called science communication. If you simplify things too much you’ll start to omit/lose important information and you might end up with banal trivia and painting with a broad brush. People love to learn, some more than others, and be challenged (not too much in one go) as long as they are not made to feel like ignorant imbeciles. It takes effort but it’s worth it. It helps if you know your audience or the audience you want to reach – one size does not fit all.
Thirdly, some threads here go far and deep and are well outside my comfort range of understanding. Indeed, they’re often dialogues between two commenters who generally both know what they’re talking about or one who does and one who is called Dunning-Kruger.
Lastly, there is a general complaint that MSM have dumbed down its readership/audience and the public, for that matter. This is a fair point but many blogs are what the commentariats make of them. The medium has limitations, for sure, but that’s no excuse for throwing your hands up in the air 😉
People don’t group in relation to other groups, politically.
I'm puzzled that you believe this. It's so obviously untrue! The entire rationale of identity politics seems to be based on the fact that they do group together on the basis of shared identity, and usually this gets defined in relation to some group they oppose.
To your earlier point, re triadic framing being simplistic like binary framing, my usage is utilitarian in practice while emerging from a metaphysical basis. Remember that Aristotle said the latter lies beyond physics – in the sense of being deeper terrain. Just because our society is superficial & trivia-obsessed, doesn't mean we can disregard our mental foundations. Archetypes remain fundamental.
How does the triadic frame operate in the binary structure of parliament? Uneasily! The third of the electorate who are neither left nor right currently use NZF to control the binary primitives, and that has worked reasonably well. But they lack formal representation as such due to the antique frame deriving from the French revolutionaries' `people vs rulers'.
Nowadays the people think more diversely than that. A class-based parliament would be genuinely triadic – if it instituted working class, middle-class and upper class via separately-elected representations. Middle-class hegemony would result, of course. Not much different to the current de facto reality…
Power does play a fundamental role in the structural relations, true. Particularly for marginalised groups. My point was more general, applying to the generic situation.
The small quote I recycled from BFD commentary the other day captured it by dismissing the new Nat leadership team as `nothing but bluegreen socialists'.
It’s not that easy for them to get home. Are we so screwed we can’t extend a bit of a helping hand to people in this sort of need? After all we encouraged them to come.
And of course there's always the question of where they now consider 'home'.
Especially those people brought here under false pretences and who've now spent a big part of their adult life here.
Now that the shit is hitting the fan and there is money that needs to be spent on supporting them, there's a lot of cudda shudda wuddas to be considered. Might just be easier to pull out a Hilary Clinton type reset button, acknowledge we stuffed up and make changes from this point on if Ao/NZ wants to at least pretend we're a more caring/sharing little nation that punches above its weight than others.
Short term visa holders make a declaration that they have enough funds to support themselves in NZ, unaided, when they apply for the visa.
How is it NZ's responsibility that those visa holders then come here, spend that money on travelling around NZ using those very funds that are supposed to assist them, unaided, and then cry poverty?
It doesn't sit right with me. I'm all for the NZ Government assisting them on an outward journey back home (even though the visa declaration says they have enough money to pay for a return ticket)
The long term upside I suppose, is that the median wage should rise over time, as employers now no longer have the ability to import large numbers of migrants and pay them the minimum wage. New Zealanders know what things cost, so minimum wage offers for many jobs will be forced to increase their hourly rates. This is likely moreso to happen in the farming, horticulture and what remains of the tourism sector, when they end up having to hire New Zealanders to do the jobs that minimum wage slaves used to be imported for. An additional upside is that money paid to NZers will end up staying in NZ. Many migrants send NZ $ back to their families overseas which ends up worsening the Balance of Payments.
Paying higher wages to New Zealanders means more PAYE given to the government and more money spent in the local communities by New Zealanders as they will be able to afford doing so.
"Short term visa holders make a declaration that they have enough funds to support themselves in NZ, unaided, when they apply for the visa."
Not unlike all those Kiwis dotted around the world in remote places now pleading poverty and asking for rescue.
And then of course there's all those promises of work and sometimes shitty tertiary courses that the NZ gummint did NOTHING to counter over the past decade – just as long as they could keep up the churn.
Except that when a New Zealander goes to a NZ Embassy, we actually provide them with emergency funds to tide them over. However many run to the media first rather than the embassy.
It's a shame that other countries on't see fit to help their foreign nationals stuck in NZ in the same way.
That would explain why there are quite a few moans then I guess about the lack of support they've been shown.
I seem to remember we've been here before James ( a while back )
It's just as well the failings of INZ and associated agencies are a matter of record and there are still a number of things that they don't/haven't been able to adequately explain.
And then of course there's all that stuff like 'demographic profiling' and T&C surveillance, and James Cassons and his ilk that remain in place.
I understand some of them, in their "wisdom" have left the NZ gummint a little bit exposed. We might also be grovelling for a FTA or two for a while longer – with negotiations little more than talk fests.
We don't identify whose bright idea it was to commission a lot of it, but some of them are still there – thankfully they've not been forgotten and just as there are people such as yourself who have "no sympathy" (End of Story!!!!!!!!!), there are others that've got your number.
Generally …….. people don't really like being treated like shit, but then there'll always be people such as yourself that don't mind being the ones imposing the shit on others
Time for the people who employed migrant workers because they're cheaper and more compliant than NZers to take responsibility for their own actions, surely? If that bankrupts them, NZ has a social welfare system.
The package would "help address the shortfall of workers in the primary sector nationally by reskilling workers and attracting new workers by building career pathways", the ministers said.
Queenstown Lakes Mayor Jim Boult welcomed the announcement and expected it to assist the council’s initiative, "loosely entitled In The Wild", intended to retrain unemployed people in "nature-based" jobs such as clearing wilding pines, gorse and broom, reducing pest numbers and creating and maintaining cycle and walking trails.
"A large number of the people who will be without a job are actually used to working in the outdoors, particularly a lot of the outdoor tourism folk.
There's also a lot of "shovel ready" projects coming through in the district. I know of one developer who put forward 12 projects, some in partnership with others, and he's saying that 11 are moving forward. Some of them are rather large, the total for the 12 was north of $100 mill, with some conservation / community recreation component in there as well. That's just one organisation, there's lots of others with similar vision.
It's quite possible with the programs in train, and a possible re-opening of the border to Australia later in the year (think ski season will be domestic only) that Central Otago could be well employed, maybe over employed in 6 months time.
Does anyone know when the approved "shovel ready" projects will be announced, I had late last week in my mind, but events may have overtaken that.
I went & looked at the immigration website (some parts are less confusing than others)
Looks like the work visa's have a couple of broad categorues
-temp ones
the young peoples 1 year work & explore
working while studying and the post study one year if the course is high grade. If we get students back I think we should limit this category harshly to post grad study only at recognised institutions
These people will either need help from NZ or embassies or a push to go home when they can but in the meantime maybe some sort of basic food supply/accommodation with repayment where appropriate? We have a high level of unemployed young NEETs so in the near future will this category need to exist or be promoted. Nor do I think we need those useless private courses that were essentially selling a part time work visa.
working visas
– employer sponsored – well the employers can pay for the return trip on those plus costs in the meantime, if there are no jobs now. I see some of these are people working in hotels in Q'town which are likely to be largely chains. In future maybe these types of visa need to pay a large bond to immigration. I don't see that unhitching these visa's will do anything other than flood the local market.
-skills shortages open visas. We need to chop this occupation list back promptly.It was used under Nact as a cheap labour source for employers not reflecting real shortages. Labour was steadily tightening the rules. A few categories may need to taper till local employers get used to paying better wages .
Where do people call home? Remitting money back suggests it is not here. I am also surprised at the number of people who seem to have been here for around 5 years on some mixed bag of student & precarious work visas. Maybe an upper time limit is needed in total in the future? I don't think that we need to convert all visa's to something longer term and less onerous- we have an oversupplied labour market for the next while.
Then there is also the shadow of permanent residence visas where people have not been here for years as they have moved elsewhere and are likely to turn up for welfare purposes only. Maybe just expire anyone who hasn't been tax residence for 5 years and in future make it 10 to 15 years to become a citizen.
According to INZ, NZ imported 65,000 workers in the "tourism sector" in 2019.
Therefore, the talk of "100,000 NZers in the tourism sector will lose their jobs" is fairly chicken little stuff. It's more like 30,000 NZers that will be directly affected. I daresay many of them will be able to find jobs elsewhere, or will be retained by the employer.
It'll be the short term visa holders that will be let go. Again, very little sympathy. The tourism sector has priced out NZers for years from participating in activities, and now want the support.
I am concerned about the young NEETS too where unemployment is high. They need those starter jobs and a lot of the work visa's have just been crack cocaine for employers in the race to the bottom and meaning they don't wantt to train.
There doesn't seem to be much real analysis in the media just interviews.
PLEEEEEEESE! Someone put that man Thrace in a uniform – preferably one that's the most ostentatious with lots of medals. Give him the fanciest job title you can dream up as well.
No need to measure the size of it's dick – rest assured it goes without saying it's WELL above average.
If you do that – he'll do us proud even if he hasn't yet come to realise the difference between public service and the policies of an elected government's agenda, versus those of his own. If you do that – we can dress James' up as being impartial and apolitical in the service of the erectorate
National will very likely be led by Muller into the 40s, come the election. Bomber seems out of touch with kiwis, big-time. City-slicker syndrome? The chances that the Nats will sink further under Muller & Kaye are infinitesimally small. On the contrary, a rebound is inevitable. The new team will be an effective combo for National. Enough to win? Unlikely at present.
National will very likely be led by Muller into the 40s, come the election … The chances that the Nats will sink further under Muller & Kaye are infinitesimally small. On the contrary, a rebound is inevitable.
That's what the Media consensus said when National's rising star, Bill English, toppled Jenny Shipley in October 2001. Bill was, they implied, young, firm buttocked & dashing. A roarer, a rogerer & a puker. Every Woodford House debutante's dream. His vigorous leadership apparently guaranteed to usher in a new electorally competitive era for the Nats with the very real prospect of victory.
The result:
Last Colmar Brunton before English toppled Shipley:
By early 2002, more astute National voters saw the writing on the wall, the re-election of the Clark Labour Govt looked inevitable … so the Right vote significantly fragments as large numbers of 1999 Nat supporters sought to provide a counterweight to any Leftward thrust in the new incoming Govt, in the process, if possible, keeping the Greens away from power.
I wouldn’t entirely rule out at least a vague echo of that freefall happening again.
There was another reason I think Swordfish, I as usual helped out on the Labour team in Kaikoura electorate ( which is everything north of Chch except Nelson ) and also being a farmer I know a lot of Nats and they were pissed off, English lost them in a big way being deaf to the usual 20 year cycle of droughts of which the '99-2002 one was a biggie, he and the rest of the Take The Cockies For Granted Party advocated tough love, stand on your own 2 feet stuff.
It wasn't popular, during Meet the Minister meetings an old school mates job was to make sure that the back door of the country halls was jambed open and the crown limo idling for the fast getaway that they needed a fair few times.
The farming community stayed home on election day and the wives if they voted went for the woman ( Helen ) or Green, one small valley booth put the Nats in third. Unheard of.
This in an electorate that generally a dead dog with a blue ribbon is a shoe-in.
Big swings into non-voting from both National and Labour voters in 2002 (according to the New Zealand Election Study).
Sounds (from your eyewitness account) like Farmers may have been a core component of the former (although, bear in mind the farming community comprises a pretty small % of voters in general … & even a relatively minor % of National voters … but if their anger spilled over into erstwhile Nats voting in small rural towns & smaller regional centres then it could have had quite an impact)..
Labour certainly won the Party Vote in Kaikoura in 2002 (that was also the case in every one except 3 Rural seats (possibly re-inforcing your point) … but it's easily forgotten that the Party won a whole swathe of Rural seats in the previous Election as well)
Was that one small valley booth French Pass ?
Incidentally, Helen Clark would’ve been intersted in you … IIRR she did her MA seeking to explain why a small minority of Farmers broke ranks & persisently voted Labour.
It's time to drop the MMP threshold to 3 or 4%, it really sucks watching NZF and Greens hovering around 5%, that means a huge slice of the electorate will potentially lose their votes to a larger party
Or do away with the party vote entirely and just have 120 or 130 electorates with STV voting. At least that way MPs are directly accountable to voters, and there might actually be opportunities for actual independents to get in Parliament. Once voting is complete, it'll be the largest grouping of aligned parties + independents that form the government.
I think party politics has a lot to answer for but I’d rather do away with the electorate vote. Local and regional politics should be covered more than adequately (or not) by local and regional politicians. Central politics is a completely different kettle of fish where the interests of the whole nation and all people have to be balanced against those of individual electorates.
I would envisage that people standing in electorates for central government would be aligned with the policies of the parties they are standing for.
Independents may not necessarily have the overarching 'policy' rationale, but if enough people in the electorate believed they had something to offer in the big house, they'd still be able to have an influence on overall policies for the country.
I'm not sure that party vote alone would be ideal. In that case, how would people be able to contact representatives? Who would decide what areas/regions MPs would serve?
Yes Nationals medis friends have started with total blanket coverage that has replaced COVID 19.
Looking at the tv networks last night you could feel their desperation in making sure in their new catch cry " New Zealand's biggest political party " that Muller was the new National saviour.
Bryan: "let me remind you “business as usual” – the pre pandemic economy- benefitted the few not the many and THAT is what they want us to return to. Well I for one don’t want that. How about you?"
Me too. Shame he isn't honest enough to point out that Labour leaders never campaign to change that system, huh? I see that lack of honesty as typical of leftists. Some commentators here get irritated by such generalisations from me, and I empathise since those folk are on the side of the angels, but to me it is a necessary realism in political commentary. Truth hurts sometimes…
They do anyway. 🙄 I sometimes include the proviso (exceptions to every rule) but it gets tedious so often don't bother. Anyway, I can confidently predict that Jacinda, even with her ratings in the stratosphere, will never campaign to change the system. She will prove my point instead.
I started thinking about it and even thought there might be a Post in it but then realised I have not yet read the other Post today, which may actually cover much of the same; there is no such thing as coincidence when it comes to ideas.
I’ll try to articulate clearly my muddled thinking.
I think the premise of your question is fair enough and aligns with common sense/perception but is not necessarily realistic.
If one makes changes to a system other than tinkering and cosmetic changes, it is real change to another system. This is not just playing with words.
I believe much change comes from within a system. This is often called different names such as transformation, paradigm shift, or evolution – in biology there is another process that involves radical differentiation and sudden radical change in bodily structure, appearance (morphology), and function called metamorphosis.
Revolutionary change involves the destruction or dissolution of large parts of the system and then replacing these with new different parts or rearranging existing parts to give them new functions and responsibilities (and new names, of course – re-branding is vitally important in revolution).
As with a virus jumping to a new species, this only works when it is able to survive in the new host. It has to have accumulated the appropriate mutations (read: changes) to be ready to make the jump. Of course, the opportunity needs to present itself. Before the jump, nothing seems ‘unusual’ (read: BAU), but after the jump a completely new world (environment) opens up for the virus. The changes come from within; the jump could be equated to a paradigm shift.
After the jump, the virus needs to adapt to survive and propagate optimally in the new environment.
The virus is an analogy for a system. Small intrinsic changes can ready it for big changes ahead that could secure its future and survival. The virus is changed yet the same.
I believe this Government led by the PM is making real changes to the system that too many may seem BAU and trivial. The pandemic has created a unique opportunity for major changes ahead, a paradigm shift is possible (a jump). One that might also help increase the chances of survival through adaptation to/under CC. Will it happen? Will it succeed? There’s only one way to find out …
I did warn you that my thinking is muddled – too much COVID-19 on the mind 😉
Yeah, incremental. On a good day, you tell yourself every little bit helps since it's in the right general direction. On a bad day it's Labour asleep at the wheel as usual.
Times like now, a political paradigm shift is required. Best fudge to be expected from Labour: a plan makeshift enough to seem semi-plausible to mainstreamers.
I doubt they are even thinking that far forward. If the new National team actually does produce a plan to campaign on, watch Labour go into headless-chook mode.
Are you hoping to achieve something with these rebukes @4:01 pm?
"Labour asleep at the wheel as usual."
"Best fudge to be expected from Labour: a plan makeshift enough to seem semi-plausible…"
"Labour go into headless-chook mode."
You certainly crammed your 'point' home. Anyone else seeing more than one "headless chook" here?
I get you don't like his comments, but is there a point to pointing that out instead of addressing what he raises? He's not the only one that is disappointed by Labour.
Weka, I'm disappointed with much of what the current Government has done or failed to achieve in its first term: installing the TPPA; Kiwibuild; inequality and climate change incrementalism; no CGT; inadequate Pharmac funding.
And I'm glad, and more that little relieved that we have this Government, rather than three more years of the only realistic alternative which (IMHO) would have been a disaster for many NZers. As bad as things are now (quite bad and probably going in the wrong direction thanks to the pandemic, among other things), they could be a lot worse. Does Dennis think about that while dissing the Labour party (again and again, and again) here?
I for one have taken Dennis’ views of Labour on board, and wonder if there is a point to his pointing out how awful he thinks Labour is? That's what I'm asking. I'm assuming he party-votes Green; in the absence of any functional alternative that's what I'm doing.
Fair enough DMK. There have definitely been times when Labour-bashing has been a sport on TS and it does get tiresome. I guess what interests me is if criticising Labour takes us anywhere useful. In a climate of St Jacinda (who most of us acknowledge is good at what she does and is a really good thing for NZ at this time), and lots of people still intending to vote Labour instead of Green, I think that pointing to Labour's shortcomings makes sense.
I am hoping we can get to something more constructive, and I agree with Dennis that many left wing men have been raised to talk politics like this, it's a hard pattern to shift.
I'd be happy with a L/G govt this year with more Green MPs. The Greens will go as far as NZ lets them, but it's hard to see Robertson for instance being open to the change that is needed. He might surprise me, who knows what Labour would do if the Overton Window shifted.
Yeah, I wish lefties would stop assuming that because of Ardern the election is a done deal. Makes me nervous, even if just for 2023.
Sorry to upset you Weka. SHE made a big thing about helping the poorest and did nothing much re the poverty group's recommendations. Unless she's an innocent ignor-ant she took that evil deep into herself and consciously put her face against it. And chatted away.
I don't think that makes her a devil, just self-betrayed. Shallowness, like Key.
Who thinks our country is undermined by not looking after the least? It strikes at the Left idea of NZ. It draws us into the American hollow.
The main problem is the elite are all having a great time under ROGE-RULE. They think they all have meritocratically got there. And it's the best of all worlds. Why both Corbyn and Sanders are great people. If there is money you're serving the rich rather than the people. Why there was one in Britain and one in America.
you're not upsetting me sumsuch, I largely agree. Thing is, we have Ardern as PM not Shaw/Davidson (who would do something about poverty) because NZ voters want Ardern. If Ardern went boldly left, would the voters follow her? I'm not convinced they would, which is why the GP are polling on 5% despite having the best left wing policies in parliament.
Yes, there is much fuckery from the elites in both Sanders and Corbyn's situations, like there was with Turei, but again, people still vote for someone else because most people want what we have now.
I don't think this is hopeless. I think NZ has a real chance at shifting the Overton Window because of covid, and if we got a L/G govt with more Green MPs. That would mean by 2023 the general public (voters) would be more onboard with left wing values and policies.
By real chance I don't mean a good chance necessarily. The left is still largely centred in macho politics, and tearing things down, and isn't very good at building things up at the moment. I hope this will change. One of the reasons Ardern is good at what she does is because she knows the value of making people feel good. Not everyone, but that sense of togetherness can take us further down the path to something good and leaves an opening for the edge to effect change.
I read Bryan Bruce quite regularly, and think you are being disingenuous about his failure to " point out that Labour leaders never campaign to change that system ".
He is critical of policy that does not meet his idea of progressive delivery, irrespective of who promotes it. And he has been critical of Labour policies and projects over the last three years.
The dishonesty you point out seems to be closer to home.
Huh?? He failed to point it out. They don't campaign to change the system. They never do! Telling the truth about that is honesty. So I did. So he ought to do it too! Not sure what part of that logic you don't get.
Look, neocon Den, it'll depend on whether Todd Munter has an actual plan, one that he's willing to share with the electorate. Look, his plan could be to sell everything but look, he probably wouln't know the little punters to know that. Look, his plan might be to Make Newzillin Great Again.
I see that NZH readers will "know" Muller shortly as he is the beneficiary of endless fluff pieces – one would think it was the second coming of Christ the way they bang on.
Surprising to see someone so furiously boosting Muller here and at the same time bagging the shit out of the Labour Party ……well DF I have duly noted your fawning sycophancy and will remember your comments for the future. Your credibility to me has been extinguished.
That MAGA "Make America Great Again" baseball cap in Todd Muller's trophy cabinet is a concern. I saw the photo of Muller standing alongside these shelves and I looked at what was in my 'office' personal space. What was there was what was important to me.
For Muller, having a symbol of a right wing nationalist American president and another of the US itself is important enough to have pride of place in his office where visitors see them.
In a New Zealand politician's trophy shelf?
The paraphernalia is there for a message. It says "This is what is important to me". It's also a message for those who see it. It's a public statement.
And that worries me. It is a signal to right wing nationalists that the values of the Trump campaign and administration are his- a visual dogwhistle, if you like.
And I don't.
MAGA? With its gun laws, racism, mass shootings, border walls, neglect of the poor, exultation of the rich, extreme nationalism, war-mongering, Empire-building, selfish individualism, obesity, inward-looking smugness, poor education and poor knowledge of the rest of the world.
I bet it's not there to celebrate bluegrass, jazz, blues, American writers, painters, thinkers, artists, and all its diverse cultures………….
The Chinese liquor worries me more than anything else. Another politician ready to sell our country for a few inflated directorships (read 'bribes') from the dragon?
Maybe, Peter ChCh. Being the original fulminator I need to say that the MAGA hat may have a more innocent explanation. It'll be interesting to see whether it appears in the new office.
The Chinese liquor may be as innocent as the bottle of Japanese sake on my shelf- a memento of a trip and a possible talking point, a tribute to a part of Chinese culture.
Or, as you say, a symbol of more than cultural affinity, like the Irish and Scottish whisky/ey also on my shelf.
But MAGA? That's an overt political message. Of what? I like Trump? I met Trump and he gave me a hat? I avow MAGA type politics and agenda? I am a magamaniac?
I read today that Trump spoke approvingly of the "bloodlines" of Henry Ford, an avowed Anti-Semite, in an aside to his prepared speech (which points towards expression of personal opinions). That was a dogwhistle to the racist Right.
In his first speech as Leader of the Opposition, Muller descended into the abyss of stereotyping people by even jokingly referring to red-haired people as being prone to disagreement. If a man has such an atonal dearness to the wrongness of that, what else is there in his MAGAzine?
I don't see that there is any innocent explanation for keeping & treasuring a MAGA hat so much that you display it. Why wouldn 't you stuff it in the throwaway bag. Did he buy it? That would be worse.
You misunderstand the MAGA hat. National is always invited by the Republican Party to send a few up and comers to observe the Presidential election. Just as the Democrats do with Labour.
Having the hat on display signifies that Todd was one of the MP's invited. It says to his colleagues that the Republicans had picked him out as a rising star. It is not, and is not meant to be, a signifier that he endorses Trumps policies. Trying to say it does will fail.
It is much more sensible to measure Todd by what he has done and said here. In politics, the most notable being the principal advocate within the Caucus to back the Zero Carbon Bill and negotiating with James Shaw. This showed his colleagues three things.
First, that he would do what was right, even though he knew it would displease a fair chunk of National. Two, that he was forward looking and could see that NZ needed to the right thing on climate change. Three, that he has the temperament and skill to negotiate across the Aisle on the things that matter.
And those who saw his speech immediately after the leadership change, and have any sense of objectivity at all, will know that Labour will now have to watch out.
Thanks Wayne for confirming that actually we do understand only too well. Todd and MAGA inclinations are a huge threat.
If the repugs ( and even before Trump there was the tea party gang) see Todd as some body they may want to do business with in the near future then we should all be very very concerned.
There is also the stunning lack of judgement in 2016 in even accepting such an invitation. Care to tell us who else has been on these repug jaunts since say 2000.
There was one of those stuff fun polls in 2016 – but 70% voted for Bernie Saunders. Stop trying to use James Shaw as a now grossly undersized fig leaf.
" he was forward looking and could see that NZ needed to the right thing on climate change"
Not so much Wayne.
Remember when he " railed against an exhibit at Te Papa laying out several options for getting New Zealand's emissions down, calling it "biased and not science-based"."
It is just a hat for the occasion; John Key had and wore many hats, a different one for each occasion. His Make Amnesia Great Again hat was so well camouflaged that you could never tell he was wearing it and Key himself forgot about it too at times. It was pretty harmless, all in all.
Talking of fluff pieces, Steve Elers puts the boot into our Tova because the gal had the gall to state that Jacinda Ardern is the most popular PM in a century. Elers has quite a few axes to grind, purely out of academic interest, of course, and indeed, Tova failed to show the evidence.
Unfortunately, Dr Elers doesn’t seem to know that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Also unfortunate is that Dr Elers then apparently supports the ‘analysis’ by the NZ Herald, which compared its Digipolls with the Newshub/Reid-Research poll of 1000 people. Any academic worth his ‘credentials’ would have pointed out the difference between these polls and their relative self-selection biases. However, this didn’t suit the narrative of the learned doctor and his proud denouncement of Tova’s “fake news”.
That’s fake news, folks. Why? Because it isn’t true.
Well, Dr Elers, you are spreading fake news too, you know, because you don’t know that it isn’t true. Now, be a man of integrity and go tell your students.
"“The purpose of the National Party is to govern the country,” a National MP explained to me recently, “and that’s hard to do well, as those muppets-” he jerked his head at the Beehive, “are finding out”.
Yeah right the old National born to rule gobshite quoted and unchallenged sigh.
I have been wondering how Christopher Luxtons doing right now…..”but that was my job, boo hoo”.
another white male who has wanted to be PM since he was a boy…..aw shucks I have heard that one before.
i think Jacinda should go hard and early with him….. Mr Muller states he has a plan..and I think he been so focussed on his plan that he has failed to see we have a plan and it is working and every one of my 20 cabinet ministers have made that happen (throw in a few eg such as David Parker securing trade agreement singapore, wood/Faifoi houses all homeless people, job agency set up by Carmel S, shovel ready projects past the first stage and ready to go in weeks, school lunch programme which will absorb some of the casualties of hospo. But it seems like Mr Muller was so busy working on his plan (to roll bridges), that he missed our plan and is stuck in the past firing off about kiwibuild.
I think we all need to be afraid of Muller. His support of trump is deeply worryingly….his maiden speech about how he was Vice President of the United States and then the president died and I got the job forever, and his statement in his speech yesterday “I will be PM” are very real personality markers.
Nikki Kaye somewhat feebly saying muller is one of the best people I know……and to that I say “time to get out more Niki
Part of my lock-down viewing was catching up on a range of documentary films I had bookmarked for watching over the last year. 'Union Maids' was one of these, a compelling look back to a different era. (51mins)
"Union Maids" is very much about trade-unionism but it's even more about three extraordinary women, Kate Hyndman, Stella Nowicki and Sylvia Woods who, in the course of three separate interviews, which are intercut with each other and with period newsreel footage, recall their lives as women laborers and union organizers in Chicago in the late 20's and 30's" (link)
Sylvia Wood's hopeful comments right at the end would haunt her today.
"I don't think american working people are going to let down this country, and I don't think any fascist bastards are going to take over either'
What's going on with Matthew Hooton? He's quit Twitter, rumour is to join Muller's staff. He's been running a dirty politics campaign for his pal Todd and the media lapped it up
“Radio NZ chose repeatedly to use lobbyist Matthew Hooton as a commentator on Muller's challenge this week, when most journalists know that Hooton has been working on Muller's behalf to help achieve this outcome.” (Media needs to CUT lobbyists) @nzheraldhttps://t.co/Wie2tAwG73
Nikki Kaye reckons Todd Muller is a man of integrity. If that is so he needs to com clean about when Matthew Hooton started working for him to achieve this outcome. He said he only started to think about a leadership challenge on Wednesday? Really? #nzpol
So, Matthew Hooton’s left Twitter and Hamish Price has locked his account. The first is rumoured to be working for Muller (after a lot of much airtime for his “commentary” promoting his guy); what’s the second doing? Surely a positive leader wouldn’t invite him on board?😳
There was the article below in the NZ Herald 18 May by Mathew saying that Winston should be sacked for his China comments. (Paywalled).I stumbled across a large reddit thread – don't know how to get back to it – that was wondering (!) why it was so favourable to China with a strong sub theme of concern about the NZherald – chinese edition – CCP influence.
Other than that MH seems a risky choice as a news commentator now.
Yep I think it's pretty certain now that Hooton has signed up to the Muller camp, he's even deleted the Exceltium website. Interesting times, I hope this doesn't mean a return to Whaleoil-style gutter politics.
In the middle of a pandemic with tens of millions of "Muricans staring down the barrel at unprecedented levels of unemployment and years of economic misery, Needy Amin wags the dog.
Trump has decided to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, negotiated three decades ago to allow nations to fly over each other’s territory with elaborate sensor equipment to assure they are not preparing for military action. @SangerNYThttps://t.co/F4hrhUH5Ol
Don't these ass hats understand MAD – yay we won what does it mean -it means you better have bunkers to live in for decades as nuclear winter and radiation poisoning bork the world
A very good and timely opinion piece on Māori and Pacific Island representation in NZ Medical Schools, which easily could be applied to all other areas of our society where (collective) needs of the community outweigh that of (privileged) individuals or groups of individuals.
When this blew up years ago I think the explanation was that while a student with lower grades gained initial entry, they had by the end of the first year of study to have pass grades at the same high level as all the other students.
This allowed for racial differences and those students who had been at say ordinary small colleges without the automatic boosts that more privileged kids had had, were given a chance but still had to be top students.
Years ago they said that all candidates who had been accepted had to "pass" the end of year final exam. Any one regardless of their origins, had to pass and those who didn't had to look for another career. (Going on memory because I had to defend against the belief that those low level Maori get a free pass to be 2nd rate doctors. Not so of course.)
Brian Easton writes a compelling column on the way forward. (I didn't understand the bulk of it but the last paragraphs make sense to me. And Todd Muller may be opting to repeat the Key English strategy?)
The public debt ratio is expected to increase from about 19 percent today to about 54 … That’s a big lift; the fiscal response to the milder GFC lifted the ratio from about 7 percent of GDP in 2008 to 26 percent in 2013. … Now a debt-to-GDP of 54 percent is not bad by current international standards, …
It would be prudent to get the ratio down but observe that the Key-English Government took five years to get it from 26 percent to 19 percent, nowhere near the level they started with. They did so by squeezing expenditure on public services to the point where the incoming Ardern-Peters Government found itself struggling to do the things we wanted them to do. …
Will we repeat that public sector squeeze? Or perhaps raise taxes? Or continue to maintain a high public debt ratio and fail to cope during the next great crisis? …
See what has happened? In my view the government was right to borrow to get us through the Covid Crisis and reduce its economic damage. That means that while people will suffer economically (and thus far we have avoided the health suffering that some other countries are going through), we have done so by shifting part of the burden of the adjustment into the future.
Nact will go for the squeeze every bit of expenditure (austerity on wheels) and chop working rights (think annual leave and sick leave) and benefits (like food parcels not money) as hard as they can.
Otherwise the alternative is to redistribute by raising taxes on the wealthy. This is actually what we should do. IIRC the Nact high end tax cuts plus the GST switch took about $4 billion out of the public purse and dumped it into high earner hands per annum. The reverse moves plus some wealth taxes ( that catch in particular – overseas ownership by high net worth individuals of land etc here) plus some tech company taxes should get the lot paid back in about 5 years so it doesn't become a burden hanging over a whole generation.
My point is will Muller announce a plan of austerity and tax cuts in order to show that National is the Party to manage the revival? If so how would the Electorate react to that? (Remember the Health failures and the night school closures and the attacks on bludging beneficiaries?)
I’d welcome a plan from National that encapsulates more than five bullet points on a PowerPoint slide. I’d require independent analysis of its fiscal implications because we know how bad the Nats (cue: Joyce) are with numbers, big numbers, especially when it is somebody else’s money such as the Taxpayers’. The Green did this at the last election and set a good example.
Regugs are generally touched but folk in the UK approaching bat boy abducted by lizard aliens levels of insanity is something else.
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, 44 percent of Republicans believe that Bill Gates is plotting to use a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign as a pretext to implant microchips in billions of people and monitor their movements — a widely debunked conspiracy theory with no basis in fact.
The survey, which was conducted May 20 and 21, found that only 26 percent of Republicans correctly identify the story as false.
In contrast, just 19 percent of Democrats believe the same spurious narrative about the Microsoft founder and public-health philanthropist. A majority of Democrats recognize that it’s not true.
About 1 in 5 adults in England believe the coronavirus is to some extent a hoax, according to research on conspiracy theories by the University of Oxford.
In addition, researchers found nearly 3 out of 5 adults in England believe the government is misleading them to some extent about the cause of the virus, and nearly 1 in 10 strongly agree that China developed the coronavirus to destroy the West — which is utterly false.
Onomatopoeia is the process of creating a word that phonetically imitates, resembles, or suggests the sound that it describes. Such words are themselves also called onomatopoeias. Common onomatopoeias include animal noises such as "oink", "meow" (or "miaow"), "roar" and "chirp"
I take a Darwinian view of whatever people like that end up visiting upon themselves. But the sad fact is there will inevitably be spillover onto people that have taken it seriously and taken reasonable precautions for self-protection but end up suffering and maybe even dying for other people's stupids.
What is up with the "Replies Tab" today? It was showing me replies sent to Byd0nz's comments. I refreshed and was showing me replies sent to Dennis Frank's comments. Every time I refresh the replies tab shows me replies sent to another user and not me. It seams to be linked somehow to the last person who posted a comment on the site and randomly picks them or the person they commented to when it picks who it thinks I am in the replies tab.
He he you are missing out jester. I get the replies to everyone not just selected posters. Our wonderful Lprent will fix this. I'm using firefox with the add on that doesn't let the isp see where I am
The Master of the Looniverse getting his jollies wrecking things he doesn't understand:
First the Intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. Then the Iran nuclear agreement. Then the open skies treaty. Now he's talking about doing new nuclear weapons tests.
Get the money moving "rich pricks" – holiday in flash NZ hotels and get the wife to have dresses made by local dressmakers and milliners like the wonderful, inspirational and learned scholar and NZLP politician M Bassett's mum and suits for themselves made onshore by local tailors. Spend money locally on locally made items. Trend start fashionable NZ items, only so many can be made by each artisan so be in the know and "who is your tailor". Buy PAINTINGS. Wind down the offshore spend, spend it at home.
Good to see Shane Jones calling out Northland iwi for barring access to Cape Reinga as they claim it had to be spiritually cleansed to let the dying spirits depart. We need more straight talkers like Shane telling it like it is, not holding the rest of NZ to ransom with deluded beliefs & the usual nonsense.
@ I feel love, I have the same thoughts about all beliefs that there is no evidence for, which means all of them. Each to their own as long as they don’t try to push it on other people.
This a different immune system to the antibody mechanism. Could explain why people can get covid-19 without showing antibodies, and why the antibody tests have been somewhat 'variable' (apart from the huckster problem). Also the range of symptomatic responses to the disease.
T cells are among the immune system's most powerful weapons, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies show infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found that some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses that cause the common cold.
Dan FalkBritons who switched on their TVs to “Good Morning Britain” on the morning of Sept. 15, 2020, were greeted by news not from our own troubled world, but from neighboring Venus. Piers Morgan, one of the hosts, was talking about a major science story that had surfaced the ...
Sara LutermanGrowing up autistic in a non-autistic world can be very isolating. We are often strange and out of sync with peers, despite our best efforts. Autistic adults have, until very recently, been largely absent from media and the public sphere. Finding role models is difficult. Finding useful advice ...
Doug JohnsonThe alien-like blooms and putrid stench of Amorphophallus titanum, better known as the corpse flower, draw big crowds and media coverage to botanical gardens each year. In 2015, for instance, around 75,000 people visited the Chicago Botanic Garden to see one of their corpse flowers bloom. More than ...
Getting to Browser Tab Zero so I can reboot the computer is awfully hard when the one open tab is a Table of Contents for the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and every issue has more stuff I want to read. A few highlights: Gugler et al demonstrating ...
Timothy Ford, University of Massachusetts Lowell and Charles M. Schweik, University of Massachusetts AmherstTo mitigate health inequities and promote social justice, coronavirus vaccines need to get to underserved populations and hard-to-reach communities. There are few places in the U.S. that are unreachable by road, but other factors – many ...
Israel chose to pay a bit over the odds for the Pfizer vaccine to get earlier access. Here’s The Times of Israel from 16 November. American government will be charged $39 for each two-shot dose, and the European bloc even less, but Jerusalem said to agree to pay $56. Israel ...
Orla is a gender critical Marxist in Ireland. She gave a presentation on 15 January 2021 on the connection between postmodern/transgender identity politics and the current attacks on democratic and free speech rights. Orla has been active previously in the Irish Socialist Workers Party and the People Before Profit electoral ...
. . America: The Empire Strikes Back (at itself) Further to my comments in the first part of 2020: The History That Was, the following should be considered regarding the current state of the US. They most likely will be by future historians pondering the critical decades of ...
Nathaniel ScharpingIn March, as the Covid-19 pandemic began to shut down major cities in the U.S., researchers were thinking about blood. In particular, they were worried about the U.S. blood supply — the millions of donations every year that help keep hospital patients alive when they need a transfusion. ...
Sarah L Caddy, University of CambridgeVaccines are a marvel of medicine. Few interventions can claim to have saved as many lives. But it may surprise you to know that not all vaccines provide the same level of protection. Some vaccines stop you getting symptomatic disease, but others stop you ...
Back in 2016, the Portuguese government announced plans to stop burning coal by 2030. But progress has come much quicker, and they're now scheduled to close their last coal plant by the end of this year: The Sines coal plant in Portugal went offline at midnight yesterday evening (14 ...
The Sincerest Form Of Flattery: As anybody with the intestinal fortitude to brave the commentary threads of local news-sites, large and small, will attest, the number of Trump-supporting New Zealanders is really quite astounding. IT’S SO DIFFICULT to resist the temptation to be smug. From the distant perspective of New Zealand, ...
RNZ reports on continued arbitrariness on decisions at the border. British comedian Russell Howard is about to tour New Zealand and other acts allowed in through managed isolation this summer include drag queen RuPaul and musicians at Northern Bass in Mangawhai and the Bay Dreams festival. The vice-president of the ...
As families around the world mourn more than two million people dead from Covid-19, the Plan B academics and their PR industry collaborator continue to argue that the New Zealand government should stop focusing on our managed isolation and quarantine system and instead protect the elderly so that they can ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 10, 2021 through Sat, Jan 16, 2021Editor's ChoiceNASA says 2020 tied for hottest year on record — here’s what you can do to helpPhoto by Michael Held on Unsplash ...
Health authorities in Norway are reporting some concerns about deaths in frail elderly after receiving their COVID-19 vaccine. Is this causally related to the vaccine? Probably not but here are the things to consider. According to the news there have been 23 deaths in Norway shortly after vaccine administration and ...
Happy New Year! No, experts are not concerned that “…one of New Zealand’s COIVD-1( vaccines will fail to protect the country” Here is why. But first I wish to issue an expletive about this journalism (First in Australia and then in NZ). It exhibits utter failure to actually truly consult ...
All nations have shadows; some acknowledge them. For others they shape their image in uncomfortable ways.The staunch Labour supporter was in despair at what her Rogernomics Government was doing. But she finished ‘at least, we got rid of Muldoon’, a response which tells us that then, and today, one’s views ...
Grigori GuitchountsIn November, Springer Nature, one of the world’s largest publishers of scientific journals, made an attention-grabbing announcement: More than 30 of its most prestigious journals, including the flagship Nature, will now allow authors to pay a fee of US$11,390 to make their papers freely available for anyone to read ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, Richard Richels, and Benjamin Santer Imagine a major climate change law passing the U.S. Congress unanimously? Don’t bother. It turns out that you don’t need to imagine it. Get this: The Global Change Research Act of 1990 was passed ...
“They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”WHO CAN FORGET the penultimate scene of the 1956 movie classic, Invasion of the Body Snatchers? The wild-eyed doctor, stumbling down the highway, trying desperately to warn his fellow citizens: “They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”Ostensibly science-fiction, the movie ...
TheOneRing.Net has got its paws on the official synopsis of the upcoming Amazon Tolkien TV series. It’s a development that brings to mind the line about Sauron deliberately releasing Gollum from the dungeons of Barad-dûr. Amazon knew exactly what they were doing here, in terms of drumming up publicity: ...
Since Dwight Eisenhower’s inauguration in 1953, US presidents have joined an informal club intended to provide support - and occasionally rivalry - between those few who have been ‘leaders of the free world’. Donald Trump, elected on a promise to ‘drain the swamp’ and a constant mocker of his predecessors, ...
For over a decade commentators have noted the rise of a new brand of explicitly ideological politics throughout the world. By this they usually refer to the re-emergence of national populism and avowedly illiberal approaches to governance throughout the “advanced” democratic community, but they also extend the thought to the ...
The US House of Representatives has just impeached Donald Trump, giving him the dubious honour of being the only US President to be impeached twice. Ten Republicans voted for impeachement, making it the most bipartisan impeachment ever. The question now is whether the Senate will rise to the occasion, and ...
Kieren Mitchell; Alice Mouton, Université de Liège; Angela Perri, Durham University, and Laurent Frantz, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichThanks to the hit television series Game of Thrones, the dire wolf has gained a near-mythical status. But it was a real animal that roamed the Americas for at least 250,000 ...
Tide of tidal data rises Having cast our own fate to include rising sea level, there's a degree of urgency in learning the history of mean sea level in any given spot, beyond idle curiosity. Sea level rise (SLR) isn't equal from one place to another and even at a particular ...
Well, some of those chickens sure came home bigly, didn’t they… and proceeded to shit all over the nice carpet in the Capitol. What we were seeing here are societal forces that have long had difficulty trying to reconcile people to the “idea” of America and the reality of ...
In the wake of Donald Trump's incitement of an assault on the US capitol, Twitter finally enforced its terms of service and suspended his account. They've since followed that up with action against prominent QAnon accounts and Trumpers, including in New Zealand. I'm not unhappy with this: Trump regularly violated ...
Peter S. Ross, University of British ColumbiaThe Arctic has long proven to be a barometer of the health of our planet. This remote part of the world faces unprecedented environmental assaults, as climate change and industrial chemicals threaten a way of life for Inuit and other Indigenous and northern ...
Susan St John makes the case for taxing a deemed rate of return on excessive real estate holdings (after a family home exemption), to redirect scarce housing resources to where they are needed most. Read the full article here ...
I’m less than convinced by arguments that platforms like Twitter should be subject to common carrier regulation preventing them from being able to decide who to keep on as clients of their free services, and who they would not like to serve. It’s much easier to create competition for the ...
The hypocritical actions of political leaders throughout the global Covid pandemic have damaged public faith in institutions and governance. Liam Hehir chronicles the way in which contemporary politicians have let down the public, and explains how real leadership means walking the talk. During the Blitz, when German bombs were ...
Over the years, we've published many rebuttals, blog posts and graphics which came about due to direct interactions with the scientists actually carrying out the underlying research or being knowledgable about a topic in general. We'll highlight some of these interactions in this blog post. We'll start with two memorable ...
Yesterday we had the unseemly sight of a landleech threatening to keep his houses empty in response to better tenancy laws. Meanwhile in Catalonia they have a solution for that: nationalisation: Barcelona is deploying a new weapon in its quest to increase the city’s available rental housing: the power ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters, PhD The 2020 global wildfire season brought extreme fire activity to the western U.S., Australia, the Arctic, and Brazil, making it the fifth most expensive year for wildfire losses on record. The year began with an unprecedented fire event ...
NOTE: This is an excerpt from a digital story – read the full story here.Tess TuxfordKo te Kauri Ko Au, Ko te Au ko Kauri I am the kauri, the kauri is me Te Roroa proverb In Waipoua Forest, at the top of the North Island, New ...
Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... Story of the Week... Coming attraction: IPCC's upcoming major climate assessmentLook for more emphasis on 'solutions,' efforts by cities, climate equity ... and outlook for emissions cuts in ...
Ringing A Clear Historical Bell: The extraordinary images captured in and around the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021 mirror some of the worst images of America's past.THERE IS A SCENE in the 1982 movie Missing which has remained with me for nearly 40 years. Directed by the Greek-French ...
To impact or not to impeach? I understand why some of those who are justifiably aghast at Trump’s behaviour over recent days might still counsel against impeaching him for a second time. To impeach him, they argue, would run the risk of making him a martyr in the eyes of ...
The Capitol Building, Washington DC, Wednesday, 6 January 2021. Oh come, my little one, come.The day is almost done.Be at my side, behold the sightOf evening on the land.The life, my love, is hardAnd heavy is my heart.How should I live if you should leaveAnd we should be apart?Come, let me ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 3, 2021 through Sat, Jan 9, 2021Editor's ChoiceAfter the Insurrection: Accountability, Reform, and the Science of Democracy The poisonous lies and enablers of sedition--including Senator Hawley, pictured ...
This article, guest authored by Prof. Angela Gallego-Sala & Dr. Julie Loisel, was originally published on the Carbon Brief website on Dec 21, 2020. It is reposted below in its entirety. Click here to access the original article and comments. Peatlands Peatlands are ecosystems unlike any other. Perpetually saturated, their ...
The assault on the US Capitol and constitutional crisis that it has caused was telegraphed, predictable and yet unexpected and confusing. There are several subplots involved: whether the occupation of the Michigan State House in May was a trial run for the attacks on Congress; whether people involved in the ...
On Christmas Eve, child number 1 spotted a crack in a window. It’s a double-glazed window, and inspection showed that the small, horizontal crack was in the outermost pane. It was perpendicular to the frame, about three-quarters of the way up one side. The origins are a mystery. It MIGHT ...
Anne-Marie Broudehoux, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Will the COVID-19 pandemic prompt a shift to healthier cities that focus on wellness rather than functional and economic concerns? This is a hypothesis that seems to be supported by several researchers around the world. In many ways, containment and physical distancing ...
Does the US need to strike a grand bargain with like-minded countries to pool their efforts? What does this tell us about today’s global politics? Perhaps the most remarkable editorial of last year was the cover leader of the London Economist on 19 November 2020. Shortly after Joe Biden was ...
Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato and Valmaine Toki, University of WaikatoAotearoa New Zealand likes to think it punches above its weight internationally, but there is one area where we are conspicuously falling behind — the number of sites recognised by the UNESCO World Heritage Convention. Globally, there are 1,121 ...
An event organised by the Auckland PhilippinesSolidarity group Have a three-course lunch at Nanam Eatery with us! Help support the organic farming of our Lumad communities through the Mindanao Community School Agricultural Foundation. Each ticket is $50. Food will be served on shared plates. To purchase, please email phsolidarity@gmail.com or ...
"Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here." Prisons are places of unceasing emotional and physical violence, unrelieved despair and unforgivable human waste.IT WAS NATIONAL’S Bill English who accurately described New Zealand’s prisons as “fiscal and moral failures”. On the same subject, Labour’s Dr Martyn Findlay memorably suggested that no prison ...
This is a re-post from Inside Climate News by Ilana Cohen. Inside Climate News is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for the ICN newsletter here. Whether or not people accept the science on Covid-19 and climate change, both global crises will have lasting impacts on health and ...
. . American Burlesque As I write this (Wednesday evening, 6 January), the US Presidential election is all but resolved, confirming Joe Biden as the next President of the (Dis-)United State of America. Trump’s turbulent political career has lasted just four years – one of the few single-term US presidents ...
The session started off so well. Annalax – suitably chastised – spent a pleasant morning with his new girlfriend (he would say paramour, of course, but for our purposes, girlfriend is easier*). He told her about Waking World Drow, and their worship of Her Ladyship. And he started ...
In a recent column I wrote for local newspapers, I ventured to suggest that Donald Trump – in addition to being a liar and a cheat, and sexist and racist – was a fascist in the making and would probably try, if he were to lose the election, to defy ...
When I was preparing for my School C English exam I knew I needed some quotes to splash through my essays. But remembering lines was never my strong point, so I tended to look for the low-hanging fruit. We’d studied Shakespeare’s King Lear that year and perhaps the lowest hanging ...
When I went to bed last night, I was expecting today to be eventful. A lot of pouting in Congress as last-ditch Trumpers staged bad-faith "objections" to a democratic election, maybe some rioting on the streets of Washington DC from angry Trump supporters. But I wasn't expecting anything like an ...
Melted ice of the past answers question today? Kate Ashley and a large crew of coauthors wind back the clock to look at Antarctic sea ice behavior in times gone by, in Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat. For armchair scientists following the Antarctic sea ice situation, something jumps out in ...
Christina SzalinskiWhen Martha Field became pregnant in 2005, a singular fear weighed on her mind. Not long before, as a Cornell University graduate student researching how genes and nutrients interact to cause disease, she had seen images of unborn mouse pups smaller than her pinkie nail, some with ...
A growing public housing waiting list and continued increase of house prices must be urgently addressed by Government, Green Party Co-leader Marama Davidson said today. ...
As we welcome in the new year, our focus is on continuing to keep New Zealanders safe and moving forward with our economic recovery. There’s a lot to get on with, but before we say a final goodbye to 2020, here’s a quick look back at some of the milestones ...
A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
$36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
ANALYSIS:By Jennifer S. Hunt, Australian National University Every four years on January 20, the US exercises a key tenant of democratic government: the peaceful transfer of power. This year, the scene looks a bit different. If the last US presidential inauguration in 2017 debuted the phrase “alternative facts”, the ...
By Lulu Mark in Port Moresby In spite of Papua New Guinea’s mandatory mask-wearing requirement under the National Pandemic Act 2020, many public servants attending a dedication service in Port Moresby have failed to wear one. They were issued masks before entering the Sir John Guise Indoor Complex but took ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Moro, Associate Professor of Science & Medicine, Bond University How do scabs form? — Talila, aged 8 Great question, Talila! Our skin has many different jobs. One is to act as a barrier, protecting us from harmful things in the ...
US President Donald Trump is pardoning former White House adviser Steve Bannon, who is accused of fraud in a case involving funds for the border wall. ...
Joel Little with Lorde, Dera Meelan with Church & AP, Josh Fountain with Maala and Randa and Benee – producers make good songs great. Now a new fund from NZ on Air is putting the focus on them.Six months ago it looked like the music industry was on the brink ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denise Buiten, Senior Lecturer in Social Justice and Sociology, University of Notre Dame Australia On average, one child is killed by a parent almost every fortnight in Australia. Last week, three children — Claire, 7, Anna, 5, and Matthew, 3 — were ...
This commendable and realistic decision again underlines that it is the police, not government, who are largely responsible for the reduction in cannabis prosecutions over the past 15 years, writes Russell Brown.The news that New Zealand police have discontinued the annual Helicopter Recovery Operation, which has, each summer for more ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ilan Noy, Professor and Chair in the Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington We will not be able to put the COVID-19 pandemic behind us until the world’s population is mostly immune through vaccination ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s US inauguration live blog: inauguration news, analysis and reaction, updated throughout Wednesday and Thursday, NZ time. Reach me at catherine@thespinoff.co.nz.4.00pm: What will Trump be doing tomorrow?It’s pretty well known by now that outgoing president Donald Trump intends to throw out the rulebook when it comes to ...
The Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance is calling out Mayor Phil Goff for his undignified comment that the claim made by Councillor Greg Sayers asking why Auckland Council is funding yoga classes is “bullshit.” Yesterday, Councillor Greg Sayers penned ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne At 4am Thursday AEDT, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated as president and vice president of the United States, replacing Donald Trump and Mike Pence. What follows is ...
*This article was originally published on RNZ and is republished with permission. New Zealanders flocked to beaches and lakes this summer, but it wasn't enough to fill the gap left by international tourists in other regions. The tourism industry is struggling to fill a $6 billion hole left by international tourists ...
Summer reissue: Chef Monique Fiso joins us for a chat about Hiakai – her acclaimed Wellington restaurant, and the title of her stunning new book.First published November 3, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The Spinoff’s journalism is funded by its members – click here to learn ...
A new trough was brought to our attention this morning, although ethnicity will limit the numbers of eligible applicants. If you are non-Maori, it looks like you shouldn’t bother getting into the queue – but who knows?We learned of the trough from the Scoop website, where the Kapiti ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Britta Denise Hardesty, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, CSIRO Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing costs economies up to US$50 billion globally each year, and makes up to one-fifth of the global catch. It’s a huge problem not only for the ...
Police stopping major cannabis eradication operations has given the green light to drug dealers and gangs to expand operations, make more profit, and continue to wreak havoc on the most vulnerable in our society, says Sensible Sentencing Trust. ...
Varieties of merino wool footwear are emerging faster than Netflix series about British aristocracy. Michael Andrew takes a look at the rise of the shoe that almost everyone – including his 95-year-old grandma – is wearing.Some might say it all started with Allbirds. After all, to the average consumer, it ...
A new report from New Zealand’s Independent Monitoring Mechanism (IMM) highlights the realities and challenges disabled people faced during the COVID-19 emergency. The report, Making Disability Rights Real in a Pandemic, Te Whakatinana i ngā Tika ...
The Maritime Union is questioning the reasons provided for ongoing delays at the Ports of Auckland. Maritime Union of New Zealand National Secretary Craig Harrison says there is a need for an honest conversation about what has gone wrong at the ...
As New Zealand faces a dire shortage of veterinarians, a petition has been launched urging the Government to reclassify veterinarians as critical workers so we can Get Vets into NZ. “New Zealand desperately needs veterinarians from overseas to counter ...
New Zealand is fast developing a reputation as a South Pacific vandal, says Greenpeace, as the government continues to fight against increased ocean protection. At the upcoming meeting of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO), ...
The Department of Internal Affairs and Netsafe are urging parents and caregivers to be mindful of the online content their tamariki may be consuming in the lead up to the inauguration of president-elect of the United States of America Joe Biden ...
Care is at the centre of Auckland Zoo’s mandate, and it’s clear to see when you witness the staff doing their day-to-day jobs up close. Leonie Hayden went behind the scenes to talk to two people who would do anything for the animals they look after. “We were having this ...
The Game Animal Council (GAC) is applying its expertise in the use of firearms for hunting to work alongside Police, other agencies and stakeholder groups to improve the compliance provisions for hunters and other firearms users. The GAC has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Verica Rupar, Professor, Auckland University of Technology “The lie outlasts the liar,” writes historian Timothy Snyder, referring to outgoing president Donald Trump and his contribution to the “post-truth” era in the US. Indeed, the mass rejection of reason that erupted in a ...
The internet ain’t what it used to be, thanks to privacy issues, data leaks, censorship and hate speech. But a group of New Zealanders are working on a way to give power back to the people. A flood of headlines over the last week made it clear: the internet has become ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Brooks, Scientia Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Academic Lead of UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program, UNSW The views of women and men can differ on important gendered issues such as abortion, gender equity and government spending priorities. Surprisingly, however, average differences in sex ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer S. Hunt, Lecturer in National Security, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Every four years on January 20, the US exercises a key tenant of democratic government: the peaceful transfer of power. This year, the scene looks a bit ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle In Australia and around the world, research is showing changes in body weight, cooking, eating and drinking patterns associated with COVID lockdowns. Some changes have been positive, such as people cooking ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hao Tan, Associate professor, University of Newcastle Australian coal exports to China plummeted last year. While this is due in part to recent trade tensions between Australia and China, our research suggests coal plant closures are a bigger threat to Australia’s export ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Asha Bowen, Head, Skin Health, Telethon Kids Institute A year ago, in late January 2020, Australia reported its first cases of COVID-19. Since then, we have seen almost 29,000 confirmed cases and 909 deaths. As cases climbed in Australian cities in 2020, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Davis, Emeritus Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne Political pressure forced the federal government in 2017 – when Scott Morrison was treasurer – to call the royal commission into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services sector. Commissioner Kenneth Hayne ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Ellis, Lecturer in Criminology at the University of Newcastle, University of Newcastle The Rise and Fall of Saint George is a story about place, belonging and community that taps into universal tensions of identity and faith in multicultural societies. Playing for ...
An in-depth analysis of media coverage of the euthanasia and cannabis referendums has found that while both sides of the euthanasia referendum were given reasonably fair and balanced coverage, the YES position in the cannabis debate received a heavily ...
*This article was originally published on RNZ and is republished with permission Auckland has no plans to hand over the ownership of it assets under the government's planned water reforms, with Auckland Mayor Phil Goff saying his top priority is to ensure it stacks up for the city. Despite ...
Auckland Transport is putting nine new electric buses on the roads today, as it dramatically accelerates its plans to get rid of all its diesel buses – in a funding challenge to the council. Public transport operators are being told to not buy any more diesel buses or risk losing their council ...
Summer reissue: Join Michèle A’Court, Alex Casey and Leonie Hayden as they find out exactly what we’re voting on in the cannabis referendum, and discover how legalising weed is a women’s issue.First published August 4, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The Spinoff’s journalism is ...
A principal analyst for the Climate Change Commission says more needs to be done to reduce agricultural emissions or the country will miss its methane targets. ...
Former New Zealand gymnast Katya Nosova is now a champion bodybuilder, who was prepared to spend Christmas alone in quarantine to compete in the 'Olympics' of her sport. Katya Nosova was willing to do everything she could to pose on the world stage in her third Ms Olympia. Despite a ...
Concerts and some sports look likely to be on the move in Auckland after a big win for Eden Park – and politicians and officials may now want to win the public some control over the independent stadium. The advent of big concerts at Eden Park will, in all likelihood, mean ...
Despite promises of improvement, questions remain about colonoscopy services in Otago and Southland.David Williams reports The apology, when it came, was fulsome. “On behalf of the Southern DHB, I offer a sincere apology for lapses and inadequacies in colonoscopy services over the past several years,” district health board chair ...
New Zealand needs to be bold in making developers enhance the environment - not just limit its degradation, writes Stephen Knight-Lenihan All human activity should help restore the natural world. This is a concept that may resonate following the upheavals of 2020 and one which is beginning to appear in law. Imagine ...
Derek Challis, son of the legendary author Robin Hyde, died last Thursday. Michelle Leggott pays tribute He opens a suitcase and there they are, the precious manuscript notebooks written by his poet mother Iris Wilkinson aka Robin Hyde. We are in Dunedin for a Hyde conference. Yes, says Derek Arden ...
The issues political editor Justin Giovannetti will be keeping an eye on in 2021 (that have nothing to do with Covid-19).New Zealand will be busy in 2021. The border will remain closed to nearly all travellers and Covid-19 will continue to lead the news, but the country has a packed ...
A former case manager says that his experience working with beneficiaries suggests claims of a ‘complete shift’ in the service’s approach are laughable.A former Work and Income case manager who now works with beneficiaries engaging with the service has spoken out on a “toxic” culture which he says denies beneficiaries ...
ACC Minister Carmel Sepuloni must confirm whether the Government supports ACC’s apparent policy to make payouts for illegal overstayers , says the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union . Union spokesman Jordan Williams says, “Since when was it ACC policy to ...
By RNZ News An independent panel says Chinese officials could have applied public health measures more forcefully in January to curb the initial covid-19 outbreak, and criticised the World Health Organisation (WHO) for not declaring an international emergency until 30 January. The experts reviewing the global handling of the pandemic, ...
Pacific Media Watch newsdesk Fiji’s NGO Coalition on Human Rights has called for stronger accountability and commitment to human rights at home in response to the country taking the world stage as the head of a UN body. The UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) elected Fiji’s ambassador Nazhat Shameem as ...
Danyl McLauchlan reviews Stuart Ritchie’s Science Fictions, which outlines the staggering systemic flaws in the funding and publication of scientific papers. Back in August of 2006 a number of New Zealand scientists were caught up in a media controversy about whether Māori had a genetic predisposition towards violent crime. It kicked ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of Otago America is currently experiencing its worst political and constitutional crisis since the civil war when the very survival of Abraham Lincoln’s government “of, by and for the people” was at stake. On ...
Manaaki Rangatahi report that young people experiencing homelessness are being further traumatized within the emergency accommodation where they have sought safety. Often these environments are unsafe, and unsuitable for young people to live in, and rangatahi ...
Can you figure out which of the above is the real Jacinda Ardern? Probably! But one day, that might not be true.There are many reasons to believe the internet shouldn’t exist. Social media empires exerting, intentionally or not, their control over sovereign governments. Baby Shark. Your aunt on Facebook.It pains ...
The Point of Order Ministers on a Mission Monitor has flickered only fleetingly for much of the month. More than once, the minister to trigger it has been David Parker, who set it off again yesterday with an announcement that shows how he has been spending our money. He welcomed ...
Ban Bomb Day event at the New Brighton Pier, 9am, on January 22nd, 2021 January 22nd, 2021, marks the first day the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) Enters into Force and becomes international law. Aotearoa NZ is one of the ...
Why are New Zealand’s 2 Minute Noodles called 3 Minute Noodles in the UK? It’s a puzzle that has taken hold of Dylan Reeve and refuses to let go.I’m a child of the 80s and 90s. I watched a lot of TV and was a big fan of aggressively marketed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonatan A Lassa, Senior Lecturer, Humanitarian Emergency and Disaster Management, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society, Charles Darwin University News of storms battering parts of Queensland and the threat posed by Cyclone Kimi reminded me of a recent experience I’d had. ...
The Independent Police Conduct Authority has found that the use of force to effect the arrest of a wanted offender in Auckland was justified and proportionate to the risk he posed. A man, who was well known to Police, was wanted by Police for an aggravated ...
A distinctly colonial institution, banking has long ignored te ao Māori. Teaho Pihama believes investment in tikanga Māori at Kiwibank can have significant, positive outcomes for Māori.In early 90s Tāmaki Makaurau, when Teahooterangi (Teaho) Pihama was growing up riding his bike around the streets of Kingsland until the streetlights came ...
Donald Trump’s awful presidency expires at midday on Wednesday [US time] when Air Force One will have deposited him in Florida. He retreats to his Mar-a-Lago resort and Joseph R Biden Junior takes command of the White House. Trump’s has been an unpleasant presidency, brought about largely by his own ...
The New Zealand Union of Students’ Associations (NZUSA) has elected its National President for 2021. The election took place last Friday at an NZUSA Special General Meeting (SGM) in Wellington. Andrew Lessells, 22, was elected to serve as the National ...
Think twice before you accept that surprise school reunion invite, writes Chris Schulz.It started with a Facebook notification. A school reunion was being organised. It sounded fun, with a fancy dress party set to be held in the city where I grew up, Whanganui. I hadn’t seen some of my ...
Unlike the US, there is very little NZ precedent for politicians to issue discretionary pardons – creating a challenge for those like Prof Sean Davison who might have a humanitarian claim to mercy. ...
Schools have told the Education Review Office that some children lost 10 weeks of learning in last year's lockdowns, but the overall impact of the pandemic is still unclear. In a report based on surveys of thousand of students, teachers and principals during and after last year's national and Auckland ...
The government seems to still be in holiday mode when in the past two weeks alone we have had six homicides, countless firearms incidents, and police needing to arm themselves against gangs almost every second day," says Sensible Sentencing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Crawford, Associate Professor in Construction and Environmental Assessment, University of Melbourne Over the past few years, Australians have embraced online food delivery services such as UberEats, Deliveroo and Menulog. But home-delivered food comes with a climate cost, and single-use packaging is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland When the coronavirus pandemic hit Australia in March 2020, the Morrison government took bold and imaginative action. The most notable examples were its income support programs – JobKeeper, paying a A$750 weekly ...
Ocean Ute, which arrived at Port Taranaki yesterday, is the second live export ship to arrive in New Zealand this year. Taranaki Animal Rights Group has two demonstrations planned for today. A protest at midday and a vigil at 6.30pm tonight . The number ...
The Department of Corrections is well within its rights to refuse Jared Savage’s “Gangland” book from being read by inmates and it is outrageous that resources and time are now potentially going to be wasted in court about it, says Sensible ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Cowling, Associate Professor – Information & Communication Technology (ICT), CQUniversity Australia We’ve probably all been there. We buy some new smart gadget and when we plug it in for the first time it requires an update to work. So we end ...
"It says something very healthy about the state of our democracy, I think, that about a third of the population are persuadable to switch allegiance to another party" opines Danyl. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-05-2020/national-voters-were-ready-to-fall-in-love-but-they-couldnt-love-simon-bridges/
Translation: centrists are non-aligned. Having to often make this point since I first started commenting here I'll just observe that all those captured in the binary political frame still find it hard to look outside and notice that a third of the electorate have escaped.
"“The purpose of the National Party is to govern the country,” a National MP explained to me recently, “and that’s hard to do well, as those muppets-” he jerked his head at the Beehive, “are finding out”. During her first term Ardern has spent a lot of her time and communications expertise delicately explaining why she wasn’t going to stand down another incompetent minister, or why her government had abandoned yet another campaign promise, or why some new jaw-dropping ethical scandal in her cabinet was none of her business."
That's Labour normalcy, right there. The pandemic-induced poll results will mask the reality for a while, and commentators here with starry eyes will believe their own misread and promote the notion that Labour shifted out of their normalcy into a new age. Then Labour MPs will return to normal. They can't help it.
"I like to think New Zealand voters will continue to support Ardern for as long as she continues to do her job well (and some of this success seems to involve keeping most of her cabinet in a sub-basement of the Beehive “to guard the bee”, as the Simpsons gag went, a joke currently popular in Wellington political circles)."
Protect the PM by confining the Labour mediocrities to the basement seems sensible, but could prove impractical. I'd allow them out on controlled walks, at least. Even better would be to give them this work schedule: track down the missing million and convert them into Labour voters. Of course the consequences would be negligible, but it would be a valuable learning experience for them.
I look across this Cabinet and really miss Cullen, Maharey, Cunliffe, Anderton. Even little energisers like Harre and Fitzsimmons. They achieved more than survival.
We're going into an election with results saying 'well, we survived'.
Ad we have more than survived. This Govt have eradicated the virus…This is the most significant thing that can happen in terms of getting the economy going again.
I note on a previous post you were emphasising Muller's experience in business, govt university etc, etc…..
This is how I see it. This Govt has done a amazing job in the most challenging situation our country has faced for decades. It wasn't just Jacinda. Each and everyone of those ministers had stuff to get done, and get down they did. Whether it was housing all homeless people very quickly, setting up a site for people to report price gauging, getting Kiwi's stranded back from overseas, setting up quarantine, organising schools for learning from home, setting up a job subsidy, small business loan, setting up employment agencies across NZ, getting shovel ready jobs across the line as soon as possible, getting environmental jobs up and running, the huge amount of work to support the health system cope with the crisis, getting a trade agreement with Singapore in Covid times (thanks Parker), ensuring supply routes via airlines to make sure vital medical supplies etc were protected. ………..
Do you believe people disagree with your view because it has not been heard enough?
The comment @1 seemed patronising – methinks he "can't help it."
Sounding patronising or hypocritical is only a small price to pay for being right.
If vonly he were (in any sense of the word).
Imagining trinary voting blocs instead of binary does a disservice to pretty much everyone who thinks the whole "floating voter" concept is bullshit (and his link article isn't too much better). It's a democracy, there are a gazillion reasons why people change their vote or don't vote. Attraciting them isn't as simple as appealing to one voting bloc – there isn't a clearly "centrist" policy line to support or oppose (like asset sales or environmental issues).
Reducing government to a couple of ministerial cockups is likewise bullshit.
Well said.
Many but not all voters are too lazy and apathetic, simply stick with tribal BAU, and vote accordingly. People are complex beings and to reduce their behaviour to simple binary or trinary choices is simplistic.
Please note that my comment was deliberately ambiguous and neutral in intention 😉
I was not saying DF was right but rather that the labels, and labels in general, are irrelevant and unhelpful in addressing the question of being right or wrong or the actual issue itself.
The problem with blog format is that it operates like a broadcast, so a commenter addresses an audience (largely anonymous) while responding to another commenter. So the conversation stream is group discourse as much as dialogue. Nuances work well with those who are on your wavelength but are lost on most participants, so we end up painting with a broad brush more often than not.
The antique binary frame is the traditional default. My attempt to reframe as triadic is the simplest possible improvement. The real world is way more complex, but people do group in relation to other groups, and voters have established the three-way split in all western countries (more than 30 years ago) so there's a realistic basis for triangulating.
If you don't like this medium, there are others. Do a fecking podcast.
As for "traditional defaults", when power structures tend towards two or three blocs (be they electoral or sociopolitical or hereditary) bi/trinary are fine for describing the competing groups, but not the motivations of the members of those groups. To use it to describe the latter is shallow, pseudointellectual punditry.
What makes me, specifically, yawn is that you use enough words to make more sophisticated points but only present trivial observations that a two-bit assistant political reporter could present in a one-minute piece to camera.
There are lots of models to use when one can't identify specific policy points that have obvious core sector support. My personal favourite is a rough-Weberian approach: three gauges showing the traditional, charismatic, and bureaucratic support for a leadership candidate or group. But there are others that have similar usability and much more sophisticated analyses than just adding another group to a binary model. Seriously, the net improvement to the resolution of analyses between a binary and trinary system is negligible. Why do you think media love "the floating voter" as a concept? It looks deep but adds little to their workload.
You want a demo? Muller's not going to significantly improve the lot of the National party. Why?
Now lets look at a trinary analysis:
I haven't allocated a common motivation to centrists because there has never been one evident. The subgroup that operate as swing-voters does share a motivation: to change the govt. However the recent polls suggest a centrist shift 4 or 5 times that size. You can only read their common motivation as disgust with National's leader & endorsement of Labour's – but likely to be ephemeral.
Re trivial observations, any communicator has to pitch to the average grasp of the audience. If I pointed out that there is substantial metaphysical basis for seeing a triadic structure to be fundamental to both nature and the psyche I'd lose them real fast.
Re Muller's prospects as a leader, I've made my prediction. If time proves me right, will you remember to give me credit for it? People usually don't. If I can be bothered pointing it out to them they fall back on the Reagan defense ("I can't remember"). However, I will quite happily acknowledge it if time proves you right.
Lack of charisma may limit his prospects. He could be the kind of person who flourishes in a leadership role however, so could remedy that lack eventually.
Your policy point seems merely partisan. I'm likewise unimpressed but I don't discount the tribal affiliations that empower their policies. If he tweaks the mix to appeal to centrists as well as Nats he will pull more of them back across the line – but his team will have to pull together fast & efficiently to make that happen before the election, and I don't rate their collective abilities any higher than Labour's. I don't expect him to win the election at this stage but reckon pulling National back into the 40s is likely.
jesus christ this is a political blogsite, the "average grasp of the audience" is significantly greater than year 8 social studies.
Don't recall what your prediction was re: muller, but I tend to fall asleep before you get to the point.
Simple minds reduce things to individuals.
Dennis, there is only reality. Do you disagree, regarding climate change, there is only 10 years to do anything to save the species? But the party political reality is down to the next 3 years, and all about mortgages. And no one accepts the real reality. We here on the NZ Left blogs exact the fluff from our tummy buttons. And, may I say, from extensive stomachs, as the most damning evidence.
My grasp of climate science in historical context suggests the species isn't under immediate threat like you imply. I see a seriously-worsening future, but over a much longer timeframe.
Gaia will keep experimenting with different culling mechanisms, and some may cull more extensively than others. The four horsemen of the apocalypse seem to canter toward us in a fairly leisurely manner, often pausing awhile to allow their horses to crop the grass. But I've been watching carefully since Hansen first sounded the alarm long ago so I feel no need to persuade anyone. Sheeple see no wolf. Crying wolf keeps failing to work. Duh!!
Longer timeframe to the past, sees poverty. It's not a 'laid-on' sort of feast, our days. Mind-bending, anti-rationalists on Left blogs. And everyone picking points rather than addressing what matters most.
I agree with your comment, more or less.
Binary and trinary framing have their use but are crude models and have many limitations. This can and does lead to all sorts of problems in analysis and discourse. It is as useful or useless as GDP or CPI as a measure of how well off I am. People don’t group in relation to other groups, politically. That’s just lazy bollocks. People have many different views on many different things. Then some clever cookies device a questionnaire and plot your aggregate answer on a 2-dimnesional graph, which they overlay with half a dozen parties. Next they suggest that you most align with (x,y) and thus with party P3. Next thing is that you believe that you group or are grouped with like-minded people who all align with Party P3’s policies and values. This is a form of unintentional (?) conditioning based on a mathematical projection onto a plane. Psychology is full of this Factor Analysis, etc. Doesn’t help you much when you see a psychologist for therapy.
Anyway, this is not the most interesting part of your comment.
This is a political blog site and I can’t quite remember the stats but IIRC many readers are returning and (semi-)regular readers. You can give them some credit for being able to understand most comments here as long as the English language hasn’t been mangled too much (it happens).
Secondly, it is very hard but it is possible to explain even the most complex things in plain simple language so that most interested people can follow and understand it. In science there is now a sub-field called science communication. If you simplify things too much you’ll start to omit/lose important information and you might end up with banal trivia and painting with a broad brush. People love to learn, some more than others, and be challenged (not too much in one go) as long as they are not made to feel like ignorant imbeciles. It takes effort but it’s worth it. It helps if you know your audience or the audience you want to reach – one size does not fit all.
Thirdly, some threads here go far and deep and are well outside my comfort range of understanding. Indeed, they’re often dialogues between two commenters who generally both know what they’re talking about or one who does and one who is called Dunning-Kruger.
Lastly, there is a general complaint that MSM have dumbed down its readership/audience and the public, for that matter. This is a fair point but many blogs are what the commentariats make of them. The medium has limitations, for sure, but that’s no excuse for throwing your hands up in the air 😉
People don’t group in relation to other groups, politically.
I'm puzzled that you believe this. It's so obviously untrue! The entire rationale of identity politics seems to be based on the fact that they do group together on the basis of shared identity, and usually this gets defined in relation to some group they oppose.
To your earlier point, re triadic framing being simplistic like binary framing, my usage is utilitarian in practice while emerging from a metaphysical basis. Remember that Aristotle said the latter lies beyond physics – in the sense of being deeper terrain. Just because our society is superficial & trivia-obsessed, doesn't mean we can disregard our mental foundations. Archetypes remain fundamental.
How does the triadic frame operate in the binary structure of parliament? Uneasily! The third of the electorate who are neither left nor right currently use NZF to control the binary primitives, and that has worked reasonably well. But they lack formal representation as such due to the antique frame deriving from the French revolutionaries' `people vs rulers'.
Nowadays the people think more diversely than that. A class-based parliament would be genuinely triadic – if it instituted working class, middle-class and upper class via separately-elected representations. Middle-class hegemony would result, of course. Not much different to the current de facto reality…
You seem to be ignoring power in those relationships between groups. Crucial in which social groups get 'opposed'. Does not go both ways.
Power does play a fundamental role in the structural relations, true. Particularly for marginalised groups. My point was more general, applying to the generic situation.
The small quote I recycled from BFD commentary the other day captured it by dismissing the new Nat leadership team as `nothing but bluegreen socialists'.
I would never regard Slater and his fellow knuckle-draggers as founts of wisdom.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/otago/121576983/coronavirus-the-desperation-of-queenstowns-migrant-workers
Sounds tough but kiwis citizens must come first for jobs and welfare, time to go home for unemployed Visa holders
It’s not that easy for them to get home. Are we so screwed we can’t extend a bit of a helping hand to people in this sort of need? After all we encouraged them to come.
We should keep them feed and housed and help them go home.
And of course there's always the question of where they now consider 'home'.
Especially those people brought here under false pretences and who've now spent a big part of their adult life here.
Now that the shit is hitting the fan and there is money that needs to be spent on supporting them, there's a lot of cudda shudda wuddas to be considered. Might just be easier to pull out a Hilary Clinton type reset button, acknowledge we stuffed up and make changes from this point on if Ao/NZ wants to at least pretend we're a more caring/sharing little nation that punches above its weight than others.
I have little sympathy.
Short term visa holders make a declaration that they have enough funds to support themselves in NZ, unaided, when they apply for the visa.
How is it NZ's responsibility that those visa holders then come here, spend that money on travelling around NZ using those very funds that are supposed to assist them, unaided, and then cry poverty?
It doesn't sit right with me. I'm all for the NZ Government assisting them on an outward journey back home (even though the visa declaration says they have enough money to pay for a return ticket)
The long term upside I suppose, is that the median wage should rise over time, as employers now no longer have the ability to import large numbers of migrants and pay them the minimum wage. New Zealanders know what things cost, so minimum wage offers for many jobs will be forced to increase their hourly rates. This is likely moreso to happen in the farming, horticulture and what remains of the tourism sector, when they end up having to hire New Zealanders to do the jobs that minimum wage slaves used to be imported for. An additional upside is that money paid to NZers will end up staying in NZ. Many migrants send NZ $ back to their families overseas which ends up worsening the Balance of Payments.
Paying higher wages to New Zealanders means more PAYE given to the government and more money spent in the local communities by New Zealanders as they will be able to afford doing so.
"I have little sympathy"
I bet!
"Short term visa holders make a declaration that they have enough funds to support themselves in NZ, unaided, when they apply for the visa."
Not unlike all those Kiwis dotted around the world in remote places now pleading poverty and asking for rescue.
And then of course there's all those promises of work and sometimes shitty tertiary courses that the NZ gummint did NOTHING to counter over the past decade – just as long as they could keep up the churn.
But I guess that’s different eh?
Except that when a New Zealander goes to a NZ Embassy, we actually provide them with emergency funds to tide them over. However many run to the media first rather than the embassy.
It's a shame that other countries on't see fit to help their foreign nationals stuck in NZ in the same way.
That would explain why there are quite a few moans then I guess about the lack of support they've been shown.
I seem to remember we've been here before James ( a while back )
It's just as well the failings of INZ and associated agencies are a matter of record and there are still a number of things that they don't/haven't been able to adequately explain.
And then of course there's all that stuff like 'demographic profiling' and T&C surveillance, and James Cassons and his ilk that remain in place.
I understand some of them, in their "wisdom" have left the NZ gummint a little bit exposed. We might also be grovelling for a FTA or two for a while longer – with negotiations little more than talk fests.
We don't identify whose bright idea it was to commission a lot of it, but some of them are still there – thankfully they've not been forgotten and just as there are people such as yourself who have "no sympathy" (End of Story!!!!!!!!!), there are others that've got your number.
Generally …….. people don't really like being treated like shit, but then there'll always be people such as yourself that don't mind being the ones imposing the shit on others
Time for the people who employed migrant workers because they're cheaper and more compliant than NZers to take responsibility for their own actions, surely? If that bankrupts them, NZ has a social welfare system.
This was announced yesterday, hopefully to soak up some of the recently un-employed from tourism.
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/government-funds-tourism-worker-retraining-scheme
There's also a lot of "shovel ready" projects coming through in the district. I know of one developer who put forward 12 projects, some in partnership with others, and he's saying that 11 are moving forward. Some of them are rather large, the total for the 12 was north of $100 mill, with some conservation / community recreation component in there as well. That's just one organisation, there's lots of others with similar vision.
The wilding conifer removal and re-forestation around the district would keep everyone employed for 20 years if it's funded.
It's quite possible with the programs in train, and a possible re-opening of the border to Australia later in the year (think ski season will be domestic only) that Central Otago could be well employed, maybe over employed in 6 months time.
Does anyone know when the approved "shovel ready" projects will be announced, I had late last week in my mind, but events may have overtaken that.
I went & looked at the immigration website (some parts are less confusing than others)
Looks like the work visa's have a couple of broad categorues
-temp ones
the young peoples 1 year work & explore
working while studying and the post study one year if the course is high grade. If we get students back I think we should limit this category harshly to post grad study only at recognised institutions
These people will either need help from NZ or embassies or a push to go home when they can but in the meantime maybe some sort of basic food supply/accommodation with repayment where appropriate? We have a high level of unemployed young NEETs so in the near future will this category need to exist or be promoted. Nor do I think we need those useless private courses that were essentially selling a part time work visa.
working visas
– employer sponsored – well the employers can pay for the return trip on those plus costs in the meantime, if there are no jobs now. I see some of these are people working in hotels in Q'town which are likely to be largely chains. In future maybe these types of visa need to pay a large bond to immigration. I don't see that unhitching these visa's will do anything other than flood the local market.
-skills shortages open visas. We need to chop this occupation list back promptly.It was used under Nact as a cheap labour source for employers not reflecting real shortages. Labour was steadily tightening the rules. A few categories may need to taper till local employers get used to paying better wages .
Where do people call home? Remitting money back suggests it is not here. I am also surprised at the number of people who seem to have been here for around 5 years on some mixed bag of student & precarious work visas. Maybe an upper time limit is needed in total in the future? I don't think that we need to convert all visa's to something longer term and less onerous- we have an oversupplied labour market for the next while.
Then there is also the shadow of permanent residence visas where people have not been here for years as they have moved elsewhere and are likely to turn up for welfare purposes only. Maybe just expire anyone who hasn't been tax residence for 5 years and in future make it 10 to 15 years to become a citizen.
According to INZ, NZ imported 65,000 workers in the "tourism sector" in 2019.
Therefore, the talk of "100,000 NZers in the tourism sector will lose their jobs" is fairly chicken little stuff. It's more like 30,000 NZers that will be directly affected. I daresay many of them will be able to find jobs elsewhere, or will be retained by the employer.
It'll be the short term visa holders that will be let go. Again, very little sympathy. The tourism sector has priced out NZers for years from participating in activities, and now want the support.
Yeah, nah.
I am concerned about the young NEETS too where unemployment is high. They need those starter jobs and a lot of the work visa's have just been crack cocaine for employers in the race to the bottom and meaning they don't wantt to train.
There doesn't seem to be much real analysis in the media just interviews.
PLEEEEEEESE! Someone put that man Thrace in a uniform – preferably one that's the most ostentatious with lots of medals. Give him the fanciest job title you can dream up as well.
No need to measure the size of it's dick – rest assured it goes without saying it's WELL above average.
If you do that – he'll do us proud even if he hasn't yet come to realise the difference between public service and the policies of an elected government's agenda, versus those of his own. If you do that – we can dress James' up as being impartial and apolitical in the service of the erectorate
Not really clear why you refer to me as 1) a man and then 2) "it's"
Bomber bombs out: "I think under Simon, National could have at least held onto the low 30s, under this shadow of a nobody, it could free fall into the 20s." https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/05/22/simon-bridges-loses-national-leadership-a-loaf-of-white-bread-wins/
National will very likely be led by Muller into the 40s, come the election. Bomber seems out of touch with kiwis, big-time. City-slicker syndrome? The chances that the Nats will sink further under Muller & Kaye are infinitesimally small. On the contrary, a rebound is inevitable. The new team will be an effective combo for National. Enough to win? Unlikely at present.
That's what the Media consensus said when National's rising star, Bill English, toppled Jenny Shipley in October 2001. Bill was, they implied, young, firm buttocked & dashing. A roarer, a rogerer & a puker. Every Woodford House debutante's dream. His vigorous leadership apparently guaranteed to usher in a new electorally competitive era for the Nats with the very real prospect of victory.
The result:
Last Colmar Brunton before English toppled Shipley:
Sep 2001 CB: Nat 40.0% … 2002 Election Result 20.9% (down 19.1)
Sep 2001 CB: Nat + ACT 43.0% … … 2002 Election Result 28.0% (down 15.0)
By early 2002, more astute National voters saw the writing on the wall, the re-election of the Clark Labour Govt looked inevitable … so the Right vote significantly fragments as large numbers of 1999 Nat supporters sought to provide a counterweight to any Leftward thrust in the new incoming Govt, in the process, if possible, keeping the Greens away from power.
I wouldn’t entirely rule out at least a vague echo of that freefall happening again.
Including a boost for Winston First, yes.
Absolutely … might just prove to be the Winstonistas' salvation.
NZF
2002 CB Poll (4 Months before Election) 2.0% … 2002 Election Result 10.4% (up 8.4)
2020 CB Poll (4 Months before Election) 2.9% …
In some key senses, a different context, 10.4% is remarkably unlikely … but still, watch this space …
There was another reason I think Swordfish, I as usual helped out on the Labour team in Kaikoura electorate ( which is everything north of Chch except Nelson ) and also being a farmer I know a lot of Nats and they were pissed off, English lost them in a big way being deaf to the usual 20 year cycle of droughts of which the '99-2002 one was a biggie, he and the rest of the Take The Cockies For Granted Party advocated tough love, stand on your own 2 feet stuff.
It wasn't popular, during Meet the Minister meetings an old school mates job was to make sure that the back door of the country halls was jambed open and the crown limo idling for the fast getaway that they needed a fair few times.
The farming community stayed home on election day and the wives if they voted went for the woman ( Helen ) or Green, one small valley booth put the Nats in third. Unheard of.
This in an electorate that generally a dead dog with a blue ribbon is a shoe-in.
Big swings into non-voting from both National and Labour voters in 2002 (according to the New Zealand Election Study).
Sounds (from your eyewitness account) like Farmers may have been a core component of the former (although, bear in mind the farming community comprises a pretty small % of voters in general … & even a relatively minor % of National voters … but if their anger spilled over into erstwhile Nats voting in small rural towns & smaller regional centres then it could have had quite an impact)..
Labour certainly won the Party Vote in Kaikoura in 2002 (that was also the case in every one except 3 Rural seats (possibly re-inforcing your point) … but it's easily forgotten that the Party won a whole swathe of Rural seats in the previous Election as well)
Was that one small valley booth French Pass ?
Incidentally, Helen Clark would’ve been intersted in you … IIRR she did her MA seeking to explain why a small minority of Farmers broke ranks & persisently voted Labour.
It's time to drop the MMP threshold to 3 or 4%, it really sucks watching NZF and Greens hovering around 5%, that means a huge slice of the electorate will potentially lose their votes to a larger party
STV would be even better
Or do away with the party vote entirely and just have 120 or 130 electorates with STV voting. At least that way MPs are directly accountable to voters, and there might actually be opportunities for actual independents to get in Parliament. Once voting is complete, it'll be the largest grouping of aligned parties + independents that form the government.
I think party politics has a lot to answer for but I’d rather do away with the electorate vote. Local and regional politics should be covered more than adequately (or not) by local and regional politicians. Central politics is a completely different kettle of fish where the interests of the whole nation and all people have to be balanced against those of individual electorates.
I would envisage that people standing in electorates for central government would be aligned with the policies of the parties they are standing for.
Independents may not necessarily have the overarching 'policy' rationale, but if enough people in the electorate believed they had something to offer in the big house, they'd still be able to have an influence on overall policies for the country.
I'm not sure that party vote alone would be ideal. In that case, how would people be able to contact representatives? Who would decide what areas/regions MPs would serve?
" On the contrary, a rebound is inevitable "
Yes Nationals medis friends have started with total blanket coverage that has replaced COVID 19.
Looking at the tv networks last night you could feel their desperation in making sure in their new catch cry " New Zealand's biggest political party " that Muller was the new National saviour.
Its the economy and profits stupid.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/05/22/guest-blog-bryan-bruce-beware-of-the-right/
Bryan: "let me remind you “business as usual” – the pre pandemic economy- benefitted the few not the many and THAT is what they want us to return to. Well I for one don’t want that. How about you?"
Me too. Shame he isn't honest enough to point out that Labour leaders never campaign to change that system, huh? I see that lack of honesty as typical of leftists. Some commentators here get irritated by such generalisations from me, and I empathise since those folk are on the side of the angels, but to me it is a necessary realism in political commentary. Truth hurts sometimes…
"I see that lack of honesty as typical of leftists." Certainly no-one could accuse you of promoting the "all as bad as each other" meme.
They do anyway. 🙄 I sometimes include the proviso (exceptions to every rule) but it gets tedious so often don't bother. Anyway, I can confidently predict that Jacinda, even with her ratings in the stratosphere, will never campaign to change the system. She will prove my point instead.
Have you been asleep for the last three years?
Either you cannot see it because you’re looking in the wrong places or you cannot see it because you don’t want to.
She's making changes to the existing system, not changing it to another system.
That sounds good but is it accurate?
I started thinking about it and even thought there might be a Post in it but then realised I have not yet read the other Post today, which may actually cover much of the same; there is no such thing as coincidence when it comes to ideas.
is it accurate that she's making changes to the existing system? Or that she's not changing it to another system?
I’ll try to articulate clearly my muddled thinking.
I think the premise of your question is fair enough and aligns with common sense/perception but is not necessarily realistic.
If one makes changes to a system other than tinkering and cosmetic changes, it is real change to another system. This is not just playing with words.
I believe much change comes from within a system. This is often called different names such as transformation, paradigm shift, or evolution – in biology there is another process that involves radical differentiation and sudden radical change in bodily structure, appearance (morphology), and function called metamorphosis.
Revolutionary change involves the destruction or dissolution of large parts of the system and then replacing these with new different parts or rearranging existing parts to give them new functions and responsibilities (and new names, of course – re-branding is vitally important in revolution).
As with a virus jumping to a new species, this only works when it is able to survive in the new host. It has to have accumulated the appropriate mutations (read: changes) to be ready to make the jump. Of course, the opportunity needs to present itself. Before the jump, nothing seems ‘unusual’ (read: BAU), but after the jump a completely new world (environment) opens up for the virus. The changes come from within; the jump could be equated to a paradigm shift.
After the jump, the virus needs to adapt to survive and propagate optimally in the new environment.
The virus is an analogy for a system. Small intrinsic changes can ready it for big changes ahead that could secure its future and survival. The virus is changed yet the same.
I believe this Government led by the PM is making real changes to the system that too many may seem BAU and trivial. The pandemic has created a unique opportunity for major changes ahead, a paradigm shift is possible (a jump). One that might also help increase the chances of survival through adaptation to/under CC. Will it happen? Will it succeed? There’s only one way to find out …
I did warn you that my thinking is muddled – too much COVID-19 on the mind 😉
Yeah, incremental. On a good day, you tell yourself every little bit helps since it's in the right general direction. On a bad day it's Labour asleep at the wheel as usual.
Times like now, a political paradigm shift is required. Best fudge to be expected from Labour: a plan makeshift enough to seem semi-plausible to mainstreamers.
I doubt they are even thinking that far forward. If the new National team actually does produce a plan to campaign on, watch Labour go into headless-chook mode.
Are you hoping to achieve something with these rebukes @4:01 pm?
You certainly crammed your 'point' home. Anyone else seeing more than one "headless chook" here?
I get you don't like his comments, but is there a point to pointing that out instead of addressing what he raises? He's not the only one that is disappointed by Labour.
Sorry, it's that damned old kiwi male thing, from upbringing; calling a spade a spade. Just can't seem to help it! 😎
Weka, I'm disappointed with much of what the current Government has done or failed to achieve in its first term: installing the TPPA; Kiwibuild; inequality and climate change incrementalism; no CGT; inadequate Pharmac funding.
And I'm glad, and more that little relieved that we have this Government, rather than three more years of the only realistic alternative which (IMHO) would have been a disaster for many NZers. As bad as things are now (quite bad and probably going in the wrong direction thanks to the pandemic, among other things), they could be a lot worse. Does Dennis think about that while dissing the Labour party (again and again, and again) here?
I for one have taken Dennis’ views of Labour on board, and wonder if there is a point to his pointing out how awful he thinks Labour is? That's what I'm asking. I'm assuming he party-votes Green; in the absence of any functional alternative that's what I'm doing.
Fair enough DMK. There have definitely been times when Labour-bashing has been a sport on TS and it does get tiresome. I guess what interests me is if criticising Labour takes us anywhere useful. In a climate of St Jacinda (who most of us acknowledge is good at what she does and is a really good thing for NZ at this time), and lots of people still intending to vote Labour instead of Green, I think that pointing to Labour's shortcomings makes sense.
I am hoping we can get to something more constructive, and I agree with Dennis that many left wing men have been raised to talk politics like this, it's a hard pattern to shift.
I'd be happy with a L/G govt this year with more Green MPs. The Greens will go as far as NZ lets them, but it's hard to see Robertson for instance being open to the change that is needed. He might surprise me, who knows what Labour would do if the Overton Window shifted.
Yeah, I wish lefties would stop assuming that because of Ardern the election is a done deal. Makes me nervous, even if just for 2023.
We will be fortunate indeed to get a straight run to 2023 without any more major challenges.
Only fair to give them another chance. If they hadn't done so well so far I'd be more critical. And DMK more irritated…
and tbf, Ardern is very good at what she does, we're lucky in that.
Sorry to upset you Weka. SHE made a big thing about helping the poorest and did nothing much re the poverty group's recommendations. Unless she's an innocent ignor-ant she took that evil deep into herself and consciously put her face against it. And chatted away.
I don't think that makes her a devil, just self-betrayed. Shallowness, like Key.
Who thinks our country is undermined by not looking after the least? It strikes at the Left idea of NZ. It draws us into the American hollow.
The main problem is the elite are all having a great time under ROGE-RULE. They think they all have meritocratically got there. And it's the best of all worlds. Why both Corbyn and Sanders are great people. If there is money you're serving the rich rather than the people. Why there was one in Britain and one in America.
you're not upsetting me sumsuch, I largely agree. Thing is, we have Ardern as PM not Shaw/Davidson (who would do something about poverty) because NZ voters want Ardern. If Ardern went boldly left, would the voters follow her? I'm not convinced they would, which is why the GP are polling on 5% despite having the best left wing policies in parliament.
Yes, there is much fuckery from the elites in both Sanders and Corbyn's situations, like there was with Turei, but again, people still vote for someone else because most people want what we have now.
I don't think this is hopeless. I think NZ has a real chance at shifting the Overton Window because of covid, and if we got a L/G govt with more Green MPs. That would mean by 2023 the general public (voters) would be more onboard with left wing values and policies.
By real chance I don't mean a good chance necessarily. The left is still largely centred in macho politics, and tearing things down, and isn't very good at building things up at the moment. I hope this will change. One of the reasons Ardern is good at what she does is because she knows the value of making people feel good. Not everyone, but that sense of togetherness can take us further down the path to something good and leaves an opening for the edge to effect change.
I read Bryan Bruce quite regularly, and think you are being disingenuous about his failure to " point out that Labour leaders never campaign to change that system ".
He is critical of policy that does not meet his idea of progressive delivery, irrespective of who promotes it. And he has been critical of Labour policies and projects over the last three years.
The dishonesty you point out seems to be closer to home.
Huh?? He failed to point it out. They don't campaign to change the system. They never do! Telling the truth about that is honesty. So I did. So he ought to do it too! Not sure what part of that logic you don't get.
Look, neocon Den, it'll depend on whether Todd Munter has an actual plan, one that he's willing to share with the electorate. Look, his plan could be to sell everything but look, he probably wouln't know the little punters to know that. Look, his plan might be to Make Newzillin Great Again.
I see that NZH readers will "know" Muller shortly as he is the beneficiary of endless fluff pieces – one would think it was the second coming of Christ the way they bang on.
Surprising to see someone so furiously boosting Muller here and at the same time bagging the shit out of the Labour Party ……well DF I have duly noted your fawning sycophancy and will remember your comments for the future. Your credibility to me has been extinguished.
Will he wear his MAGA hat for the photo-shoot?
That MAGA "Make America Great Again" baseball cap in Todd Muller's trophy cabinet is a concern. I saw the photo of Muller standing alongside these shelves and I looked at what was in my 'office' personal space. What was there was what was important to me.
For Muller, having a symbol of a right wing nationalist American president and another of the US itself is important enough to have pride of place in his office where visitors see them.
In a New Zealand politician's trophy shelf?
The paraphernalia is there for a message. It says "This is what is important to me". It's also a message for those who see it. It's a public statement.
And that worries me. It is a signal to right wing nationalists that the values of the Trump campaign and administration are his- a visual dogwhistle, if you like.
And I don't.
MAGA? With its gun laws, racism, mass shootings, border walls, neglect of the poor, exultation of the rich, extreme nationalism, war-mongering, Empire-building, selfish individualism, obesity, inward-looking smugness, poor education and poor knowledge of the rest of the world.
I bet it's not there to celebrate bluegrass, jazz, blues, American writers, painters, thinkers, artists, and all its diverse cultures………….
And also on the shelf; expensive Chinese liquor.
The Chinese liquor worries me more than anything else. Another politician ready to sell our country for a few inflated directorships (read 'bribes') from the dragon?
Maybe, Peter ChCh. Being the original fulminator I need to say that the MAGA hat may have a more innocent explanation. It'll be interesting to see whether it appears in the new office.
The Chinese liquor may be as innocent as the bottle of Japanese sake on my shelf- a memento of a trip and a possible talking point, a tribute to a part of Chinese culture.
Or, as you say, a symbol of more than cultural affinity, like the Irish and Scottish whisky/ey also on my shelf.
But MAGA? That's an overt political message. Of what? I like Trump? I met Trump and he gave me a hat? I avow MAGA type politics and agenda? I am a magamaniac?
I read today that Trump spoke approvingly of the "bloodlines" of Henry Ford, an avowed Anti-Semite, in an aside to his prepared speech (which points towards expression of personal opinions). That was a dogwhistle to the racist Right.
https://truthout.org/articles/trump-condemned-for-praising-noted-anti-semite-henry-fords-good-bloodlines/
In his first speech as Leader of the Opposition, Muller descended into the abyss of stereotyping people by even jokingly referring to red-haired people as being prone to disagreement. If a man has such an atonal dearness to the wrongness of that, what else is there in his MAGAzine?
From the man's mouth, as to why the hat…..
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/todd-muller-defends-owning-maga-hat-says-no-one-cares-about-his-hillary-clinton-badge.html
I don't see that there is any innocent explanation for keeping & treasuring a MAGA hat so much that you display it. Why wouldn 't you stuff it in the throwaway bag. Did he buy it? That would be worse.
You misunderstand the MAGA hat. National is always invited by the Republican Party to send a few up and comers to observe the Presidential election. Just as the Democrats do with Labour.
Having the hat on display signifies that Todd was one of the MP's invited. It says to his colleagues that the Republicans had picked him out as a rising star. It is not, and is not meant to be, a signifier that he endorses Trumps policies. Trying to say it does will fail.
It is much more sensible to measure Todd by what he has done and said here. In politics, the most notable being the principal advocate within the Caucus to back the Zero Carbon Bill and negotiating with James Shaw. This showed his colleagues three things.
First, that he would do what was right, even though he knew it would displease a fair chunk of National. Two, that he was forward looking and could see that NZ needed to the right thing on climate change. Three, that he has the temperament and skill to negotiate across the Aisle on the things that matter.
And those who saw his speech immediately after the leadership change, and have any sense of objectivity at all, will know that Labour will now have to watch out.
Thanks Wayne for confirming that actually we do understand only too well. Todd and MAGA inclinations are a huge threat.
If the repugs ( and even before Trump there was the tea party gang) see Todd as some body they may want to do business with in the near future then we should all be very very concerned.
There is also the stunning lack of judgement in 2016 in even accepting such an invitation. Care to tell us who else has been on these repug jaunts since say 2000.
There was one of those stuff fun polls in 2016 – but 70% voted for Bernie Saunders. Stop trying to use James Shaw as a now grossly undersized fig leaf.
" he was forward looking and could see that NZ needed to the right thing on climate change"
Not so much Wayne.
Remember when he " railed against an exhibit at Te Papa laying out several options for getting New Zealand's emissions down, calling it "biased and not science-based"."
It is just a hat for the occasion; John Key had and wore many hats, a different one for each occasion. His Make Amnesia Great Again hat was so well camouflaged that you could never tell he was wearing it and Key himself forgot about it too at times. It was pretty harmless, all in all.
TBF, it is making a bit of slight relief from the endless fluff pieces on Ardern.
But agree it is noticeable.
Talking of fluff pieces, Steve Elers puts the boot into our Tova because the gal had the gall to state that Jacinda Ardern is the most popular PM in a century. Elers has quite a few axes to grind, purely out of academic interest, of course, and indeed, Tova failed to show the evidence.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated.html
Unfortunately, Dr Elers doesn’t seem to know that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Also unfortunate is that Dr Elers then apparently supports the ‘analysis’ by the NZ Herald, which compared its Digipolls with the Newshub/Reid-Research poll of 1000 people. Any academic worth his ‘credentials’ would have pointed out the difference between these polls and their relative self-selection biases. However, this didn’t suit the narrative of the learned doctor and his proud denouncement of Tova’s “fake news”.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300017369/news-turns-fake-when-facts-give-way-to-untruths-hyperbole
Well, Dr Elers, you are spreading fake news too, you know, because you don’t know that it isn’t true. Now, be a man of integrity and go tell your students.
agreed Barfly.
"“The purpose of the National Party is to govern the country,” a National MP explained to me recently, “and that’s hard to do well, as those muppets-” he jerked his head at the Beehive, “are finding out”.
Yeah right the old National born to rule gobshite quoted and unchallenged sigh.
I have been wondering how Christopher Luxtons doing right now…..”but that was my job, boo hoo”.
another white male who has wanted to be PM since he was a boy…..aw shucks I have heard that one before.
i think Jacinda should go hard and early with him….. Mr Muller states he has a plan..and I think he been so focussed on his plan that he has failed to see we have a plan and it is working and every one of my 20 cabinet ministers have made that happen (throw in a few eg such as David Parker securing trade agreement singapore, wood/Faifoi houses all homeless people, job agency set up by Carmel S, shovel ready projects past the first stage and ready to go in weeks, school lunch programme which will absorb some of the casualties of hospo. But it seems like Mr Muller was so busy working on his plan (to roll bridges), that he missed our plan and is stuck in the past firing off about kiwibuild.
I think we all need to be afraid of Muller. His support of trump is deeply worryingly….his maiden speech about how he was Vice President of the United States and then the president died and I got the job forever, and his statement in his speech yesterday “I will be PM” are very real personality markers.
Nikki Kaye somewhat feebly saying muller is one of the best people I know……and to that I say “time to get out more Niki
Part of my lock-down viewing was catching up on a range of documentary films I had bookmarked for watching over the last year. 'Union Maids' was one of these, a compelling look back to a different era. (51mins)
"Union Maids" is very much about trade-unionism but it's even more about three extraordinary women, Kate Hyndman, Stella Nowicki and Sylvia Woods who, in the course of three separate interviews, which are intercut with each other and with period newsreel footage, recall their lives as women laborers and union organizers in Chicago in the late 20's and 30's" (link)
Sylvia Wood's hopeful comments right at the end would haunt her today.
"I don't think american working people are going to let down this country, and I don't think any fascist bastards are going to take over either'
What's going on with Matthew Hooton? He's quit Twitter, rumour is to join Muller's staff. He's been running a dirty politics campaign for his pal Todd and the media lapped it up
There was the article below in the NZ Herald 18 May by Mathew saying that Winston should be sacked for his China comments. (Paywalled).I stumbled across a large reddit thread – don't know how to get back to it – that was wondering (!) why it was so favourable to China with a strong sub theme of concern about the NZherald – chinese edition – CCP influence.
Other than that MH seems a risky choice as a news commentator now.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12332783
Yep I think it's pretty certain now that Hooton has signed up to the Muller camp, he's even deleted the Exceltium website. Interesting times, I hope this doesn't mean a return to Whaleoil-style gutter politics.
I think the gutter politics is just sneaking round in the dark at the moment. Maybe he will be in charge of the non local donors.
I find the NZ herald situation a bit worrying though. With a lack of money are they likely to be vulnerable to soft power money?
Yes. (I read that Herald piece via some jiggery-pokery, its obesiance to the CCP is gross)
In the middle of a pandemic with tens of millions of "Muricans staring down the barrel at unprecedented levels of unemployment and years of economic misery, Needy Amin wags the dog.
"U.S. prepared to spend Russia, China 'into oblivion' to win nuclear arms race: U.S. envoy https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-armscontrol-idUSKBN22X2LS?"
Don't these ass hats understand MAD – yay we won what does it mean -it means you better have bunkers to live in for decades as nuclear winter and radiation poisoning bork the world
A very good and timely opinion piece on Māori and Pacific Island representation in NZ Medical Schools, which easily could be applied to all other areas of our society where (collective) needs of the community outweigh that of (privileged) individuals or groups of individuals.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/121591599/pkeh-consultant-psychiatrist-backs-university-medical-school-selection-procedures
When this blew up years ago I think the explanation was that while a student with lower grades gained initial entry, they had by the end of the first year of study to have pass grades at the same high level as all the other students.
This allowed for racial differences and those students who had been at say ordinary small colleges without the automatic boosts that more privileged kids had had, were given a chance but still had to be top students.
Correct, it is only the entry level criteria that are slightly different.
So they are meant to claw it all back in one year? I'd have thought maybe 2/3rds then the alst third the 2nd year.
Years ago they said that all candidates who had been accepted had to "pass" the end of year final exam. Any one regardless of their origins, had to pass and those who didn't had to look for another career. (Going on memory because I had to defend against the belief that those low level Maori get a free pass to be 2nd rate doctors. Not so of course.)
Brian Easton writes a compelling column on the way forward. (I didn't understand the bulk of it but the last paragraphs make sense to me. And Todd Muller may be opting to repeat the Key English strategy?)
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-the-2020-budget-forecasts-mean
Nact will go for the squeeze every bit of expenditure (austerity on wheels) and chop working rights (think annual leave and sick leave) and benefits (like food parcels not money) as hard as they can.
Otherwise the alternative is to redistribute by raising taxes on the wealthy. This is actually what we should do. IIRC the Nact high end tax cuts plus the GST switch took about $4 billion out of the public purse and dumped it into high earner hands per annum. The reverse moves plus some wealth taxes ( that catch in particular – overseas ownership by high net worth individuals of land etc here) plus some tech company taxes should get the lot paid back in about 5 years so it doesn't become a burden hanging over a whole generation.
Don't forget they would sell everything in sight.
My point is will Muller announce a plan of austerity and tax cuts in order to show that National is the Party to manage the revival? If so how would the Electorate react to that? (Remember the Health failures and the night school closures and the attacks on bludging beneficiaries?)
No he won't (my prediction)he will lie and spin and avoid any real plan but at the same time bang on and on about how National is better than Labour
In the words of Rodney Hide I think? We'd never get elected if they knew our real agenda.
I’d welcome a plan from National that encapsulates more than five bullet points on a PowerPoint slide. I’d require independent analysis of its fiscal implications because we know how bad the Nats (cue: Joyce) are with numbers, big numbers, especially when it is somebody else’s money such as the Taxpayers’. The Green did this at the last election and set a good example.
https://www.greens.org.nz/greens-launch-independently-costed-policy-manifesto
The Green Party also suggested the formation of a Policy Costings Unit (PCU), which has not (yet) been taken up, AFAIK.
https://www.greens.org.nz/policy_costings_unit
In other words, if you want us to trust you with our money, show us the money.
Easton would be the finance minister in my govt of all the social-democratic talents. Of course that'd exclude … Labour.
They are compromises. When they are straightforward again we'll vote for them straightforwardly. Or, the neediest will vote for their interests.
Regugs are generally touched but folk in the UK approaching bat boy abducted by lizard aliens levels of insanity is something else.
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, 44 percent of Republicans believe that Bill Gates is plotting to use a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign as a pretext to implant microchips in billions of people and monitor their movements — a widely debunked conspiracy theory with no basis in fact.
The survey, which was conducted May 20 and 21, found that only 26 percent of Republicans correctly identify the story as false.
In contrast, just 19 percent of Democrats believe the same spurious narrative about the Microsoft founder and public-health philanthropist. A majority of Democrats recognize that it’s not true.
https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreading-on-the-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html
About 1 in 5 adults in England believe the coronavirus is to some extent a hoax, according to research on conspiracy theories by the University of Oxford.
In addition, researchers found nearly 3 out of 5 adults in England believe the government is misleading them to some extent about the cause of the virus, and nearly 1 in 10 strongly agree that China developed the coronavirus to destroy the West — which is utterly false.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/860947708/1-in-5-in-england-think-the-coronavirus-is-a-hoax
Hoo boy…
Political rallies would be more fun if they believed AIDS was a hoax, too.
I wasn't aware that the activities likely to transmit AIDS were likely to occur at political rallies. Maybe I need to go to some.
Make America Orgy Again!
MAOA – that's quite the onomatopoeic acronym.
The what??
Thank-you Andre.
I think I will avoid verbally using the word.
Prob'ly wise. When spoken it sounds like something Ragent Orange might hire some russian hookers to do.
The guy who came up with covfefe? Ask him to spell it first.
outstanding 🙂
I take a Darwinian view of whatever people like that end up visiting upon themselves. But the sad fact is there will inevitably be spillover onto people that have taken it seriously and taken reasonable precautions for self-protection but end up suffering and maybe even dying for other people's stupids.
Didn't sound to me like there were too many people there. A handful of claps. No cheers and ra ras American style.
What is up with the "Replies Tab" today? It was showing me replies sent to Byd0nz's comments. I refreshed and was showing me replies sent to Dennis Frank's comments. Every time I refresh the replies tab shows me replies sent to another user and not me. It seams to be linked somehow to the last person who posted a comment on the site and randomly picks them or the person they commented to when it picks who it thinks I am in the replies tab.
A short while after I posted my comment and a 3 refreshes later and it now is displaying me comments sent as replies to me.
Refreshed again and now it thinks I'm someone else again. First Andre and now joe90.
Who will the reply tab think I am next?
I'm using the 76.0.1 64bit Firefox browser.
He he you are missing out jester. I get the replies to everyone not just selected posters. Our wonderful Lprent will fix this. I'm using firefox with the add on that doesn't let the isp see where I am
I'm using the new MS Edge (it's actually good) and get the same thing.
It is a issue with the performance plugin update. Looks like it flicked over the object cache again. I need to fix that properly.
Can someone please tell me which one of these pale stale males is the new Nats leader?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYhHC-RU0AcK1dy?format=jpg&name=medium
I resemble that remark! Some of us pale males are ripe (not showering, saving water)
Dunno. It's either B or C or E.
Who is G? Shivers. Wouldn’t want to meet him in a dark alleyway.
Matt Lucas.
Maybe not in a dark alleyway, but there's a good chance you'd quite enjoy watching his TV work.
Yep. He's a nice bloke. Reminds me not to judge a book by its cover. 🙁
Oh god, that image brought back horrible memories of Vogon Prostetnic Joyce reciting his lines.
The Master of the Looniverse getting his jollies wrecking things he doesn't understand:
First the Intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. Then the Iran nuclear agreement. Then the open skies treaty. Now he's talking about doing new nuclear weapons tests.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/donald-trumps-america/300019251/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades
He removed everything he could that Obama put in place and now is trying to blame him for all the things he has done wrong or are happening now.
Get the money moving "rich pricks" – holiday in flash NZ hotels and get the wife to have dresses made by local dressmakers and milliners like the wonderful, inspirational and learned scholar and NZLP politician M Bassett's mum and suits for themselves made onshore by local tailors. Spend money locally on locally made items. Trend start fashionable NZ items, only so many can be made by each artisan so be in the know and "who is your tailor". Buy PAINTINGS. Wind down the offshore spend, spend it at home.
Good to see Shane Jones calling out Northland iwi for barring access to Cape Reinga as they claim it had to be spiritually cleansed to let the dying spirits depart. We need more straight talkers like Shane telling it like it is, not holding the rest of NZ to ransom with deluded beliefs & the usual nonsense.
What you think about the new Nat leaders "delusional beliefs"?
ooh, where can I see a copy of the note?
@ I feel love, I have the same thoughts about all beliefs that there is no evidence for, which means all of them. Each to their own as long as they don’t try to push it on other people.
This is useful..
T cells found in coronavirus patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity
This a different immune system to the antibody mechanism. Could explain why people can get covid-19 without showing antibodies, and why the antibody tests have been somewhat 'variable' (apart from the huckster problem). Also the range of symptomatic responses to the disease.
Both T helpers and T killers.
This too.