Open mike 25/06/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 25th, 2023 - 169 comments
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169 comments on “Open mike 25/06/2023 ”

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  1. SPC 1
    25 June 2023 at 7:22 am

    The prospect of the sounds of Wagner's Ride of the Valkyries and Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture in Moscow at the same time have diminished.

    The Belarusians have negotiated an end of the "protest march" on Moscow. Presumably the security guarantees involve refuge in Belarus if this is sought.

    The first questions will now be will Wagner lose their Moscow HQ and their base at Rostov-on-Don. That is Belarus might be the home base of Wagnerchefsky in exile.

    And does this infer Wagner will use Belarus as their base of operations, to keep Wagner and Russian forces apart? (which might explain the nukes going there recently)

    • SPC 1.1
      25 June 2023 at 7:42 am

      “Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of the armed men of Wagner in Russia and to take further steps to de-escalate tension,” a Belarusian presidency statement declared. It added that Prigozhin had been offered “an advantageous and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.”

      https://www.rt.com/russia/578634-wagner-boss-cancels-advance/

      • Dennis Frank 1.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 8:12 am

        Seems like a masterstroke by Lukashenko. It suggests Prigozhin had been in liaison with him for a while beforehand. Since both guys are long-standing colleagues of Putin, the murk isn't likely to dissipate soon!

        The rebel captured two Russian cities without much evidence of fighting, got halfway to Moscow before this strategic retreat. Western media painting him as the loser will likely be proven wrong – unless the plutonium sandwich scenario plays out, which depends on if Putin has men within the Wagner high command.

        • SPC 1.1.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 8:29 am

          If Wagner forces threaten Kharkov from the north it will divert Ukraine resources. A deniable Belarus front (a bit like those Russians on leave in the Donbass years back)

          But Wagner does not just have forces based on Rostov-on-Don operating in Ukraine, it has a profitable mercenary force operation in Africa.

          Something Belarus might want.

          The NY Times is reporting that the Kremlin has dropped charges against Wagnerchefsky and he will go to Belarus.

          https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-wagner-prigozhin-ukraine-news

          • Dennis Frank 1.1.1.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 9:07 am

            Depends on this guy, I reckon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valery_Gerasimov

            Gerasimov was alleged to have conceived the "Gerasimov doctrine" – combining military, technological, information, diplomatic, economic, cultural and other tactics for the purpose of achieving strategic goals. The author of the original paper, Mark Galeotti, claimed it was a speech which, due to translation errors, was misinterpreted in the American press as a belligerent, rather than defensive strategic proposal.

            Anyone operating at the top level that the yanks misconstrue is likely to have a grasp of nuances in complex situations. The fact that he's both Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence implies that Putin put him there to keep Shoigu on the straight & narrow. If Putin is clever enough he'll suspend Shoigu & tell the world he's been scheduled for counselling: "Counselling is a helpful process when it comes to folks struggling to get a grip on reality. He will return to duty when he gives me a satisfactory explanation for the course of the corrective procedure in Ukraine."

          • joe90 1.1.1.1.2
            25 June 2023 at 8:12 pm

            it has a profitable mercenary force operation in Africa

            Doing what they do best.

            @DrewPavlou

            THREAD. List of Wagner military atrocities and war crimes in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine. 1. The Moura Massacre, Mali. Wagner murdered up to 500 civillians and buried them in mass graves. March 27, 2022 – March 31, 2022.

            https://twitter.com/DrewPavlou/status/1672593390226251776

            • Adrian Thornton 1.1.1.1.2.1
              25 June 2023 at 8:51 pm

              Joe90 weighs in with his usual impeccable level of trusted, levelheaded, unbiased sources…"Drew Pavlou Aussie human rights activist, fighting totalitarian regimes. Anti-Kremlin, Anti-CCP"….lol.

    • Adrian Thornton 1.2
      25 June 2023 at 9:30 am

      Yesterday on TS I witnessed the most condensed, unadulterated, pure misinformation written down in one small space…well probably since these same bunch of clowns were hard at work on this same forum spewing out their Trump/Russia fantasies…..the stuff yesterday was so pure, that you guys are lucky it wasn't heroin…you would have all od'd for sure.

      From Sanctuary "Sounds like a full scale war is breaking out between the Wagner Group and Russian Army units"….
      "Definitely a civil war scenario"….
      "Putin has gone from having the the second best army in the world to the second best army in the Ukraine to being the second best army in Russia in just three years"….
      "the US subs will be going on to high alert and listening hard for the sound of launch tubes flooding"…

      ..,,and my personal fav from Sanctuary,maybe of the day.."Thank you Scud I had hoped that you would contribute your usual deep network intel" lol

      But wait…this one is a classic…"Either way this is the start of a Russian civil war"

      Scud was in good form….
      "This is about 30-45min old, but if anyone does jump Flight Radar or Flight Tracker atm. You would see that every man & his dog who has access to a BJ (business jet) is doing the great Australian Dance called the Harry Holt atm since Tsar Poot's State of the Nation Address"
      "From what I understand & hearing elsewhere those Russia outside of the Fighting & B Ech are swapping sides when the Wagner Group approaches"
      "Still trying to find out situation on the Ukrainian frontline, if the Russians are collapsing/ withdrawing"
      "It's been suggested, that this is probably due to that the Major Military Airbase at Rostov on Don is now in Wagner Hands & rumblings of other Airbases turning"

      Anyway you get the idea…of course Joe90, Ad and the usual other geo-political misinformation merchants wrel all piling in balls deep….

      But I have finally figured out why so many regulars on this site have always seemed to be so fine with the relentless misinformation and misinformation through omission on our (western) legacy press…..because they are just bursting at the seams for anything to confirm their bias and world view…I guess the only question is if the distorted and dangerous world view they often express, is one they have formed themselves or is a result of consuming so much misinformation…. who knows?

      • SPC 1.2.1
        25 June 2023 at 9:51 am

        Comment about commander in wagnerchefsky is going to be all over the place – because he was.

        1. Blaming the military for pushing for war in Ukraine.

        2. Claiming that war with Ukraine was not necessary

        3. Questioning the leadership of the Russian military

        Doing that and then organising a "protest march" from the Rostov-on-Don base to his Moscow HQ after claims of an attack on Wagner forces by that military was of a design to create an impasse.

        He is then either able to get to Moscow – be a threat to them, not the other way around, and or they make him an offer. As it was "Moscow" was unified in not proffering a welcome. Thus on continuing the war, without Wagnerchefsky as part of the Russian effort in Ukraine.

        The uncertain element is over command of Wagner's African operations and whether forces re-base in Belarus and pose a threat to Kharkov to divert Ukraine forces there or not.

        • Adrian Thornton 1.2.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 10:12 am

          I am not going to comment, because I don't know the answer to any of those questions…but I will say, as far as the Ukrainian counter offensive goes, the Russian army seems to be holding the line pretty good without Wanger….I think people over estimate the importance of Wanger to Russia in the larger picture.

          Wanger was sent in to take Bakhmut exactly because it was obvious that whom ever undertook this task would take heavy casualties, so why would you use your own Regular forces when you have a private contractor to do the job?…not to mention this is the type of fighting Wagner is designed to undertake…so on paper a win/win for Putin….but it looks like it is turning out to be not quite that simple…we will see what the fall out is in time.

          • SPC 1.2.1.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 10:22 am

            Sure the Russians have defence in depth (to tame the summer offensive and maybe destroy some of the new equipment when it comes in, to undermine Ukraine morale in a colder 2023-2024 winter than the mild last one) and Wagner was used for one off ops (their first was the attempt to get at the Ukraine President in Kiev early on) and to use expendable troops the military did not want (prison parolees).

          • Sanctuary 1.2.1.1.2
            25 June 2023 at 12:34 pm

            I find a lot of the commentary about the Ukrainian offensive pure nonsense. This is going to be a longish post about technical military stuff, but it worth understanding to help people try and make sense of what is happening. Now, you will you hear a lot about Russian expertise in defending fortified positions. This attitude seems to be based on mainly on the Soviet field defenses at Kursk in 1943, and a vague stereotype of the phlegmatic Tsarist infantryman. But Soviet doctrine in the cold war was almost exclusively orientated towards offensive action. The Soviets thought very little about defense and even less about defense from entrenched positions against a numerically superior foe. So, if you happen to possess (as I do) a book like Glantz's "Soviet defensive tactics at Kursk" then it positively leaps out of the page and slaps you on the face the uncanny similarity of Russian defensive fieldworks at Kursk with those currently in the Ukraine. All they've updated is the depth between defensive belts to account for more modern weapons.

            At Kursk, the Soviets built three main defensive belts 40km deep backed by a further three belts to a total depth of 150km deep, and beyond that they Soviets built a further defensive zone so the total depth was almost 300km. This covered a front 250km wide and 190km deep. to defend it, the Soviets concentrated 1.9 million men. The counter attack force they mustered numbered around another two million men. As these figures indicate, no matter how deep your defensive lines are they can never be deep enough and you need a LOT of soldiers to man them effectively.

            In the Ukraine, the Russians lack strategic depth. It is just 100km or so from Staromlynivka, which is the heart of the main Russian defensive position, to Mariupol. They've got about 250-300,000 troops to defend 1,000km of front, so they lack the numbers. So how have the dealt with these two problems? First, They've created a contact line that is about 10km deep then a main belt 10km or so deep – quite shallow, but they don't have the manpower for anything else. Second, western military analysts have been surprised with the vigour that they've defended the contact line – the thinking was they'd delay the Ukrainians then retire to the main belt and fight the decisive battle from there. To me though this makes sense. It seems to me the tactical problem facing the Russians is the same one facing the Germans in 1917 on the Western front – defending a long front lacking sufficinet strategic depth with insufficient troops to defend everywhere. Thus, it follows the fighting so far resembles the sort of battles fought in 1917 when the Entente powers assaulted the Hindenburg line at Arras, Messines and Passchendale.The Russians lack the manpower or the geography to defend in depth then counter-attack in strength. So they instead they counter-attack immediately any local Ukrainian successes to prevent a breakthough that'll expose how brittle their positions are – if the Ukrainians break in then they'll break through, so it's do or die in the contact zone. They've used airpower as a huge force multiplier and are prepared to lose air assets at decisive moments.

            Russian formations are analogous to German ones in 1917 – mobik Stellungsdivisionen (holding divisions) and better equipped Eingreifdivisionen (counter-attack divisions) – will defend and counter attack respectively. This means we are seeing a lot of attritional fighting just now, with every Ukrainian success against holding formations met with immediate counter-attacks by Russian counter-attack forces and small, seemingly insignificant hamlets changing hands a number of times. Attritional battles can go on for a long time. It took over seven weeks to breakout of the D-Day bridgehead in 1944. in WW1, the attritional phase went on for four years.

            The question is – and the question we've got no way of knowing – is who is winning the attritional phase and how long it is going to go on for. The idea that the Ukrainian offensive has been stopped is rubbish right now. The fighting is still intense and the Ukrainians have not committed their breakthrough and exploitation formations. We've got no idea what shape their assault units are in or what state the Russian counter-attack formations – which have been counter-attacking for two weeks now – are in. We will all just have to wait. As the Duke of Wellington remarked when his infantry were sorely pressed by French cavalry ‘Hard pounding this, gentlemen; let's see who will pound longest.’

            • Adrian Thornton 1.2.1.1.2.1
              25 June 2023 at 1:10 pm

              Interesting historical analysis there Sanctuary…why didn’t you bring that game to TS yesterday instead of rattling off all that cockamamie that you did?…it does nothing but add further layers of fog to an already incredibly mucky subject, one where none of us really know what is going on with any certainty, even at the best of times…

              “Attritional battles can go on for a long time. It took over seven weeks to breakout of the D-Day bridgehead in 1944”….yes that is true, however the Allies had complete and utter air superiority…and as you will well know, the German forces could barely move during the day…while at the same time their codes had been broken, so the Allies additionally would have known when and where any major counter offensive action/forming up was going to take place….the Ukrainians have none of those advantages…in contrast, the Russians have a massive artillery advantage, command the skies, have defence’s in depth, have all the ‘grey zones’ fully gridded and zeroed in for that artillery, have highly motivated troops…I believe the Ukrainians will find it extremely difficult to succeed in many or even any of their objectives during this counter offensive…we shall see.

              • Sanctuary …
                25 June 2023 at 2:23 pm

                The Russian's don't have a massive artillery advantage anymore. They've got more throw weight, but the Ukrainian artillery is a lot more accurate. The artillery balance can only get worse for the Russians as the West ramps up 155mm ammunition production and Russian 122mm and 152mm weapons wear out at an unsustainable rate.

                In terms of airpower, that is a perfect illustration of attrition and how tactical adjustments can make an immediate difference. The Russians were early on crowing about the stand-off effectiveness of their Ka-52 helicopter's ATGM engaging with seeming impunity Ukrainian armour at 8km range. The Ukrainians adjusted their tactics – probably brough counter-air SAM closer to the front line – and promptly shot down five. Now, the Ka-52 force only numbered around 130-40 airframes at the beginning of the war and at least 20 had been shot down prior to this offensive; They've been heavily used and effectively they can't be over-hauled – many parts came from the Ukraine and the west. Just the other day there was widely circulated video of a Ka-52 whose tail just fell off from airframe fatigue – an effective airframe loss. The Ka-5 force now probably numbers in the dozens, so losing 1-2 a day from a force with a low availability rate implies an unsustainable attrition rate.

                The biggest surprise though has been how ineffective the Russian fixed wing force has been. Their main tactic seems to be to drop enormous GPS guided glide bombs from very long range at Ukrainian positions. The ineffectiveness stems from the imbalance in Russia's airforce, which lacked and still lacks effective SEAD/DEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence/Destruction of Enemy Air Defence). It can't provide close air support and when it tries it gets shot down. Contrast that with the Americans, whose approach to such things is to have available to it's airforce a massive array of weaponry designed specifically for SEAD/DEAD before then sending their bombers in to majestically annihilate the enemy from medium altitude.

                The Ukrainians seem to be doing something akin to Plummer's "bite and hold" tactics of 1917 – a tactic designed specifically to overcome the German "elastic defence" that made up the Hindenburg line. That is, launch a set-piece attack on a specific limited objective, capture it, beat off the inevitable Eingreif counter-attack, and then pause to bring up the artillery and counter-air, then repeat. These tactic when done properly are highly effective and impose a higher cost on the defender than attacker. If a mistake is made however, the attacker can lose heavily. As an aside, Plummer eventually got “moved on” (of course) by Haig who wearied of his “defeatist” short range objectives and wanted “breakthroughs” with objectives measured as several miles into the enemy rear, rather than a few thousands of yards then a stop for five-ten days.

                However, I agree the odds are against the Ukrainians. Still, they are determined and have high morale. In a war between two competent and evenly matched modern powers there is going to always be a lot of dying before victory.

                • Adrian Thornton …
                  25 June 2023 at 3:46 pm

                  I am not sure where you are getting your information from, but even according to Ukrainian and Western sources I have seen, Russia has artillery advantage.

                  I am also unsure on where you are sourcing your information on the underwhelming effectiveness of Russian airpower??….as far I have been able to make out, a large chunk of the considerable losses the Ukrainians have suffered in their counter offensive has been due to that airpower…and not a small amount coming from the KA 52’s…also I think you underestimate the ability of the Russians to be able to adapt to the sanctions as far as filling the gaps in armament and weapon systems production.

                  I don’t see the Ukrainians using the "bite and hold" tactics myself, or if they are, they are not doing it well…from fronts I have been following closely like the Zaporizhzhia Front…take the village (if it can be called that) of Piatykhatky…that village has changed hands at least 5-7 times, probably more, however it seems that the Russian don’t actually stay and fight for the village, it has been described that when the pressure from the advancing Ukrainians becomes too great, they pull back to prepared defensive positions, let the Ukrainians occupy the village and then heavily strike it with artillery (including TOS) and airpower before retaking again….now I am only gleaning this from sources on the internet, just like you, so I am not saying this is correct…but by judging the (lack of) results so far from the Ukrainian forces, it seems to make sense.

                  I see the Ukrainians have just launched a major push toward Olshky with a small bridgehead being established across the Kherson river…also (very) tentatively been reading that Wagner forces have been redeploying North….offensive toward Kyiv…who knows?

                  • Adrian Thornton …
                    25 June 2023 at 4:00 pm

                    …btw your assessment of US airpower has never been tested against a serious opponent….so who knows how it will play out in the real world…but more importanly…how about you settle down there with your awful “before then sending their bombers in to majestically annihilate the enemy from medium altitude” bullshit…just remember the humans on both sides that are… “majestically annihilate(d)" have families and friends who love and cherish them just like you love yours, so keep a bit of respect for that fact please.

                • Scud …
                  25 June 2023 at 5:11 pm

                  Monty also faced the same problem's at El Alamein in 42 as the 8th Army fought to break through the DAK Defence Lines. Monty had to have a operational pause before the final push which led to the break out of the 8th Army with his Corp de Chase led by the 2nd NZ Div & its supporting British Armoured Div.

                  The problem with Russia Defence Lines as Sanctuary had pointed out, is that the Russians lack depth in its defence lines which plays into Ukraine's advantage of superior long range fires, mission command C3 techniques which means it can be flexible adaptable on the battlefield unlike the Russians.

                  The Russians on paper may have numbers, but in reality they are lacking critical mass in infantry, Artillery esp in Self -Propelled Arty, Tanks to support the Infantry or in Deep Mobile Defence & with Logistics Support System that hasn't really changed since WW2.

                  Oh one other thing, mentioned Ukraine Armoured losses so far, according to my sources is about on par to what NATO planned during CW of which to date 70% of losses have been recovered by the Ukraine of which about 30% -40% have had to back to base workshops to be repaired & the rest back to either the A or B Ech for field repairs. The rest -/+25% total loss & the rest capture in capacity.

                  The average life expectancy of a Armoured Engineering Vehicle Assaulting a Russian Defence Line is 8hrs on NATO's CW Plans so far that's been on par.

                  Now one last thing,

                  My reference of the Russian oligarchs bailing Moscow on their BJ's was backed up by information prior to Tsar Poot's State of the Nation Address

                  ie watching Flight Radar on Moscow's Airports on out bound Flights prior to Tsar Poot's State of Nation Address, then Tsar Poot's State of Nation Address, its tone & what he had to say.

                  Situation on the ground & watching the Moscow Airports after Tsar Poot's State of Nation Address.

                  Needless my phone & computer messages went nuts about an Hr later as these Toffs flew out of Moscow on their BJ's with their Transponders on with no end destination. In some cases we could actually work out who was going where with the Aircraft Rego as well.

                  Anyone can access Flight Radar or Flight Tracker.

                  Heck even the USAF E4's & E6's (Doomsday Aircraft) were just about all flying during yesterday shenanigans and visible on Flight Radar.

                  • Adrian Thornton …
                    25 June 2023 at 9:16 pm

                    In the most strategic areas Russia has defence lines that are at least three lines deep, not including the few km’s of ‘grey’ area between the two forces…an area which the Ukrainians have barely managed to penetrate over the past two and half weeks….in fact as I am sure you are aware, the Ukrainian forces have only been in contact with the actual first Russian defensive lines on a handful of time,…and even then,they have been repelled back to their starting lines in those battles.

                    So I would say at this point, judging from the actual results of the fierce battles that have already taken place on all fronts during the Ukrainian counter offensive, that here doesn’t appear to be too many ‘problems’ with the Russian defensive lines nor their tactics….though who knows what happen tomorrow eh?

                    • Scud …
                      25 June 2023 at 11:49 pm

                      Do you understand the concept of probing one defences in Attack?

                      Do you understand why the Ukrainian's are doing this? Ie the Meaning of the Concept of Operations?

                      This Offensive this not your typical NATO style Gulf War blitzkrieg, but an old fashion punch up just like the Allies Breaking out from the D Day Beaches or the 8th Army at El Alamein in 42.

                      This Offensive is going to come down too which Military has the most Adaptable & Flexible Command structure & Logistics.

                      Which in unfortunately the Russians don't have, as they are relying on bute force & minefields to make up for its deficiencies they are sadly lacking unlike the Wagner Group who appear to more competent than the actual Russia Military.

                      As Sanctuary said, Ukraine has adopted Plummer's successful bite & hold tactics. When this hasn't work against the Russians, they withdraw while exposing the Russian Long Range Fires Counter Battery Fires & destroying Russia Infantry Reserves moving up in support.

                      Is going to work for Ukraine? I think it will, this isn't sprint but marathon this summer offensive.

                      Tsar Poot's only solution now, after the last 24-36hrs would be declared martial law which allow him override Duma and declare full mobilisation which in theory should give him the numbers, but it's unlikely the Russia Military has the "serviceable equipment" to fully kit out the additional manpower.

                    • lprent []
                      26 June 2023 at 1:01 pm

                      This Offensive this not your typical NATO style Gulf War blitzkrieg, but an old fashion punch up just like the Allies Breaking out from the D Day Beaches or the 8th Army at El Alamein in 42.

                      Both Gulf wars started after a high disparity of force was accumulated before invasion. That was a trend that started with Operation Torch back in 1942.

                      With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russians thought that they had that overwhelming level of force. But they spread it too widely and didn’t account for the kinds of levels of resistance along transport lines.

                      The difference in the current situation being that if there is a disparity of force, the Russian armed forces technically have it (just with lousy training and what looks like really really poor morale). Russian forces are also in the easier position on the defensive. As they have been since last year, apart from the meaningless slaughter that they inflicted on their troops in Bakmhut. Defence behind widespread obstacles and minefields is a lot easier to manage than offensive operations. Doesn’t look like the current Russian armed forces are very effective without high levels of surprise.

                      It looks like the Ukrainian side has maybe 10-15% of their forces held back for strike operations. When they find a place to use it, they want to be able to exploit it without excessive casualties. Just as they did in the Kharkiv offensive last year. Or those inspired artillery operations cutting access over Dnieper near Kherson afterwards.

                      Wasting well-trained shock troops on dumbarse frontal assaults or unsupported incursions is just insane. That was how the Russian army killed off their trained Spetnaz and airborne early in the invasion. Also why the Wagner has such terrible casualty lists.

                      …but it’s unlikely the Russia Military has the “serviceable equipment” to fully kit out the additional manpower.

                      It sounds like their ability to repair equipment is pretty low. How dumbarse is it to not have a local source for the high end ball-bearings to maintain your top of the line gear or for the locomotives to supply the war-front. Ball bearings appear to be the reason that they are pulling T55’s, T62’s, and T64s out of the reserve and using them as mobile artillery. Russia can produce or buy low grade ball bearings for old tanks. But have problems with maintaining anything past a 50yo T72.

                    • Scud []
                      26 June 2023 at 4:07 pm

                      Tsar Poot's initial assualt on Ukraine was relying on his 2014 tactics of a corrupt Ukraine & his ability of his spooks to buy off Ukraine Officials along with the Russian Maskirovka for his cannon ball run in Kyiv.

                      About 90% of the Ukrainian Officials took the money & ran off laughing at Russia & the rest backed the wrong side LoL. In all seriously it almost work in Southern Ukraine which includes the Ukrainian Sth'ern Military Command.

                      Actually it's the other way round, the Ukrainian Army & this is open source by the way has only 15-20% of its allotted Troops assigned for this Offensive & doesn't even incl the much vaunted Theatre Reserve or the Ukrainian Army Armoured Corp Reserve which is still in hiding btw.

                      This is an interesting read from the Wavell Room and it's tell just how fuckup the Russian Tank Corp is atm.

                      https://wavellroom.com/2023/01/18/a-tank-is-not-a-howitzer/&nbsp

                      The only Russia outfit that seems to understand logistics is the Wagner Group!

                      All the pictures & video footage I've seen over the 24-36hrs from open source media, showed the Wagner Group had palletised & containerised stores right down to Company/ Battalion level which is the complete opposite to the Russian Military. Which itself which is still heavily dependent on Rail & manual labour to move stores about ie even artillery shells have to individually moved one at a time etc & then you have the qayt their tanks are designed when you the Wavell Room report. You will understand what I mean, force example to a changing a Tank Barrel on a Western MBT which can be done back in the B Ech within a couple hrs!

                      The whole thing is a shit show from top to bottom. If Russia survives this Offensive with most of its Defence lines intact it will be a bloody miracle, but I doubt they will have the strength to go on the offensive over the winter let alone the following summer.

                      As for Ukraine, the only limitation for them is manpower & US Politics.

                    • lprent …
                      26 June 2023 at 1:14 pm

                      So I would say at this point, judging from the actual results of the fierce battles that have already taken place on all fronts during the Ukrainian counter offensive…

                      You have never been a soldier obviously. It sounds like you get your ideas of warfare from a comic book.

                      I haven’t seen any reports that looks like more than a probe with a few armoured and limited infantry yet.

                      I think that you are mistaking dumbarse soldiering (usually characterised with completely stupid “fierce battles”), with effective soldiering. The idea about how you do offensives is not to have “fierce battles”. Only an idiot or a ignorant civilian would think that was a good idea. Ideally attack where you don’t have to fight “fierce battles”. Ideally after you have caused the defence to move their defences to somewhere else – usually by doing smallish probing attacks highlighting possible weaknesses for the defenders.

                  • Adrian Thornton …
                    26 June 2023 at 1:26 pm

                    I have no idea where you are sourcing you information on the unfolding Ukrainian counter offensive.,..maybe you could enlighten us with a few links please…because what you are telling us is happening, and what I understand to be happening have little common….

                    This is one of my main sources..

                    https://www.youtube.com/@DPA-War

                    " but an old fashion punch up just like the Allies Breaking out from the D Day Beaches or the 8th Army at El Alamein in 42"

                    Is that really what you think?..it is nothing at all like either of those operations.

                    1, the Allies had broken the German codes, so could (and did) wreak havoc on all the German major command centers, ammo depots, supply lines and major counter attack forming up points at wil.

                    2. The Allies had complete and utter air superiority, with overwhelming numbers of all types of aircraft to enforce that advantage…I once read of a German Panzer Flak wagon that was defending some Tigers, being cornered into some buildings….the allies sent in flight after flight to take this one weapon system down…which of course they eventually did, but only after losing three fighterbombers and who knows how how many damaged…that is air superiority!

                    3. The Allies not only quickly established an advantage in artillery and tank numbers..they also had the giant caliber guns of the Royal Navy bombing the living shit out of the Germans..

                    Ukraine has not one of those advantages….how can you possibly compare the two operations?

                    Infact the Russians have the airpower advantage…probably more tanks.

                    • Scud …
                      26 June 2023 at 3:12 pm

                      Ukraine is currently undertaking deep strike & long ranges fires into the Russian Rear Areas ie Logistics Bases, Bridges, Rail yards & Russia Army FUP's in this 2nd phase of the Offensive.

                      The reason why is use "this will be an old fashion punch up" is relation to Combine Arms Teams having to break into fix defence lines then fight through & either break out on the other side or dig in & await the counter attack, which if you have done in training using blanks or field firing is a complete bitch/ cunt to do let alone trying to it under fire! Because usually you are on your guts (if you are dismounted) with limited means to move but forward.

                      Go and read up on Op Goodwood (incl the phases leading up and after which must also be seen in the context of the US Army break out at St Lo) as well in 44 and the resulting punch up between the Pommy Armoured Division's & Rommel's dug in Troops!

                      Also I'll be careful reading about the use of Airpower against the German Panzers, latest research suggests the numbers don't stack up, but real damage was actually done in the FUP's and Logistics Bases.

                      The Russians have bugger all tanks thanks to their stupidity & forgetting their lessons learnt & operational research from the Chechen Wars among other things.

                      https://wavellroom.com/2023/01/18/a-tank-is-not-a-howitzer/

                      This link above is actually a really good read, as explains why the Russian Tank Corp & Army is in the shit. Trying to find a picture of the Russian Tank Parks East of the Urals that I've seen & it's a bloody mess! Someone has a cash & carry job on that place over the decades as pretty much everything is fit for the scrap man.

                      Unfortunately I would like to say more from my back channels, but I have close friends in contact ie fighting in Ukraine or providing HADR and I really don't want to breach OPSEC unless it's already in Public or via Open Source intelligence media.

                      I'm sorry, as I dearly would love to do a couple posts as I taught Tactics, work in HQ in the Ops, Planning Training Cells plus my operational experience & be more active here incl over at TDB where I actually disagree with old mate assumptions sometimes with his posts.

                  • lprent …
                    26 June 2023 at 1:43 pm

                    Heck even the USAF E4’s & E6’s (Doomsday Aircraft) were just about all flying during yesterday shenanigans and visible on Flight Radar.

                    You have to love Flight Radar and the public networks tracking it. I was coding ADS a couple of years ago for a work project. It was rather freaky just how far I could pick up those signals even with just a receiver and small antenna on the inside of a window.

                    When I get some spare time I want to play with some software defined radios which should be able to handle those frequencies and decent antennas. Over the last decade I’ve worked with ADS, AIS, NMEA and a whole pile of other digital radio protocols for various work projects across several companies. I think that with low-cost SDRs and a decent logic analyser I can concentrate on a nice clean server application for scraping those kinds of signals.

                    Then look at how to make applications using it.

                    • Adrian Thornton …
                      27 June 2023 at 11:59 pm

                      "you appear to have little to no knowledge outside of propaganda outlets that a replete with bullshit"….

                      Says the guy who's only link in his long…long boring rave is sourced with information provided by Conflict Intelligence Team…an organization that is about as biased as it possible to be, not to mention it's close ties with the incredibly dodgy Bellingcat…..get the fuck out…you are so obviously one of the most propagandized people on this entire forum it is a joke

                      …and remember I have actually seen quite a few of the 'news' sources you take sooo seriously, during one of our previous debates… ..and I debunked your 'sources' then as being nothing but biased slanted propaganda…..but of course in the bubble of bullshit and misinformation that you inhabit…it all confirms the already fully formed bias that you obviously love to wade around in.

                  • Adrian Thornton …
                    26 June 2023 at 8:57 pm

                    Look I appreciate that you obviously have a deep understanding of this subject…I would like to think I have moderate to pretty good understanding of this subject myself….I have studied Russian military history reasonably well, as I am sure you must have, you are also (it seems) abreast of the latest academic historical analysis and revisions that have been written over the past couple of decades concerning WW2 and the Eastern ront specifically (also the Korean War)…which is why I can’t understand why you insist on underestimating the unquestionable depth of Russian resourcefulness, resolve and pure grit when they believe they are fighting for the survival of the Russian Motherland…and this is 100% what the average Russian fighter believes he is doing in the Ukraine….they, and the majority of Russian civilians believe that this is a war with the West..led by the USA/UK, using Ukraine as the staging ground and Ukrainian troops as their fighters..which for all intents and purposes it is.

                    Now to be clear I am not saying that belief is right or wrong, however I know for a fact that is what the majority of them do believe, which is also why you will probably see the majority of Wagner forces ( if given an option), stay on willingly to fight in the war. ( though the importance of Wagner to the overall picture is seriously overstated) .and this fact is also why the Russians will never leave the Ukraine…and if this becomes an endless war of attrition, then Russia will win by default as they, obviously, have a far greater pool of human recourses…which again they have proved they are willing to sacrifice for the ( perceived ) survival of their country

                    ..and what most people don’t understand is that any other Russian president (unless they were a Western installed puppet) who was in the same position geo-politically as Putin, would have made the same decision as he did, sooner or later.

                    Finally Scud, I think you should try and remain just a little more on the fence with your analysis, it does you no favourers drinking the cool aid of confirmation bias, when trying to understand and make sense of such a complicated and opaque situation….I don’t mean this to come across as an insult, of course I am regularly guilty of that sin myself….but it would be great to steer The Standard debates on the Ukraine conflict in the direct of mature and insightful, rather than half hysterical, outrageously biased, misinformation festooned, which it usually is…really, what is the point of that?

                    • lprent …
                      27 June 2023 at 9:48 am

                      …which is why I can’t understand why you insist on underestimating the unquestionable depth of Russian resourcefulness, resolve and pure grit when they believe they are fighting for the survival of the Russian Motherland…and this is 100% what the average Russian fighter believes he is doing in the Ukraine….

                      That is really the point. They aren't operating in defence. They are in a territory that they invaded without provocation.

                      Besides which majority of troops in Ukraine are not from the some bloody mythic "Motherland".

                      The Russian Federation is to all intents and purposes is not a motherland. It is still a empire with a highly disparite group of peoples.

                      The members recruited into the army fighting in Ukraine are contract soldiers who are appear to be largely called up or recruited from the periphery areas of the Russian Federation.

                      So which 'motherland' are you actually talking actually about?

                      Dagestan? Krasnoyarsk Krai? Buryatia? Certainly not the Russian 'motherland'. The number of people in the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the major urban areas like St Petersburg or Moscow are minuscule both by number and by percentage.

                      Analysis of the available data on last years callup makes this pretty damn clear.

                      https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/10/21/where-are-russias-newest-soldiers-coming-from

                      This just replicates the same kind of geographical and affluence issues that has been present in the Russian Federation forces fro decades. When you look at various analyses of the diaspora of military age and reservists who left the Russian Federation, the ratios are almost inverted. They came from the Russian motherland.

                      This is reflected in the actual results on the ground. After the initial invasion done under conditions of surprise, the Russian armed forces have proved to be quite useless in offence even where they have had overwhelming forces and better equipment.

                      While claiming they have annexed large swathes of Ukraine, all they have done is to retreat away from the claimed territories. Typically the retreats have been easy to classify as routs with abandoned vehicles and high levels of surrender. Especially in the cases of the retreat from Kyiv, in the Kharkiv offensive, and even in the 'organised' retreat over the Depnier river.

                      About the only area that Russians have managed a successful offensive in are surrounded cities like Mauripol or where they mostly used used paid mercs in Bakhmut because the Russian army. In both cases they overwhelmed using frontal assaults using forced targets to local firing points in the most stupid examples of inept command since WW1.

                      As I commented before, you appear to have little to no knowledge outside of propaganda outlets that a replete with bullshit, no verifiable numbers, and with very poor abilities to see the difference between military strategies and tactics.

                      Anyway, back to work…

      • Phillip ure 1.2.2
        25 June 2023 at 9:51 am

        @ thornton..

        So..lead by example…

        How would you report on a mercenary force advancing on moscow..?

        Give us a sample paragraph..or two..

        • Adrian Thornton 1.2.2.1
          25 June 2023 at 9:59 am

          Well I would wait until I knew some actual facts for a start pal….come on.

          • Phillip ure 1.2.2.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 10:05 am

            So..what 'facts'..about this…as reported…are you disputing..?

            • Phillip ure 1.2.2.1.1.1
              25 June 2023 at 11:13 am

              Waiting… waiting…'pal'..

              c’mon..!

            • Adrian Thornton 1.2.2.1.1.2
              25 June 2023 at 1:21 pm

              If I had to actually spell out to you the bullshit and fantasy contained in the avalanche of misinformation that was spewed out yesterday…or to put it another way, all that rubbish, you are suggesting reads to you as facts that need to be disproved…well then my friend, I would quite obviously be wasting my time in trying to doing so.

              • Phillip ure …
                25 June 2023 at 3:55 pm

                No .no…I am not crediting opinions as facts..

                I am talking about what actually happened…as in troop movements/statements of intentions from the players ..do you accept those things happened…?

                I am trying to ascertain what facts you don't actually believe….as you claimed..?

                And your condescending reply…is really evasion 101..eh..?

                Heh..!..

                It fools nobody…

                Does it fool you…?

                • Adrian Thornton …
                  25 June 2023 at 4:07 pm

                  Sorry if that was condescending…I don't know any real facts from that situation…who does?, no one on this forum does…I have read and watched lots of opinions from both sides…I can tell you that the only thing I do know for sure, is no one knows exactly what happened or what is happening as far as Wagner goes right now.

                  • Phillip ure …
                    25 June 2023 at 7:04 pm

                    Well..I mean…he marched his troops up towards moscow…then he marched them back down again..

                    He accused the Russian military of killing his men…and vowed revenge..

                    And having just watched the peaky blinders series…the concept of enemies forming alliances for convenience and/or money…is quite believable…and putin could have bought him off..

                    But these alliances of convenience often don't last..

                    And one thing is sure…the world is different now…than it was just a few days ago..

                    And if betting on who the mercenaries will move on next.. I'm picking that for now it's ukraine..

                    That a deal has clearly been done..with putin.. would point to that…

                    But then again the forces against putin in russia could well decide to seize the moment…and the mercenaries could likely swing in behind that..and again march on moscow..

                    Putin will be shifting uneasily in his seat…and for good reason..

    • bwaghorn 1.3
      25 June 2023 at 10:17 am

      If I was Ukraine I'd be watching very carefully for a Trojan horse,

      • SPC 1.3.1
        25 June 2023 at 10:26 am

        It's possible Wagner might launch an incursion into Ukraine from Belarus to make a hit on the Ukraine President in Kiev.

        • bwaghorn 1.3.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 10:38 am

          It beggers belief that in 2023 that a bunch of cutthroat scum mercenaries can operate across a large chunk of Europe and Africa.

          Why do we have a un if it allows this?

          • Phillip ure 1.3.1.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 10:51 am

            Um..!… don't think it is down to them…the u.n…eh..?

            And what would you suggest that they do..?..if they shouldered that kremlin financed mercenary force burden as their problem.?

            • bwaghorn 1.3.1.1.1.1
              25 June 2023 at 10:56 am

              Give the dog teeth, a un military, remove the the Wagner chief and any other mercenaries around the world by any means necessary,

              Get rid of veto powers .

              • Phillip ure …
                25 June 2023 at 11:21 am

                Ah..!…right ho..!

                So the u.n. should invade russia…?..in pursuit of their mercenary army..?

                (that'd sort them out..)

                you clearly missed your calling..you should have joined the diplomatic international-team/core..or be running the u.n. military forces…

                So..ww3 is the way to go..ya reckon..?

              • DS …
                25 June 2023 at 1:30 pm

                Remind me again how the United Nations is in a position to force the nuclear-armed Great Powers (USA, Russia, China) to do anything?

                The UN's purpose is to stop a Third World War. Thus far, it's done a pretty good job of that.

                • bwaghorn …
                  25 June 2023 at 2:09 pm

                  Im thinking more powers to police international criminals that cause death and misery.

          • aj 1.3.1.1.2
            25 June 2023 at 10:53 am

            Shouldn't we ask Mark Mitchell this question?

            Why do we have a un if it allows this?

            • Phillip ure 1.3.1.1.2.1
              25 June 2023 at 11:24 am

              Yes…given Mitchel's past career as a mercenary soldier/killer for hire..I am surprised the media hasn't been flocking to him for insider-commentary..

        • Adrian Thornton 1.3.1.2
          25 June 2023 at 1:26 pm

          "to make a hit on the Ukraine President in Kiev"….you know the Russians can do missile strikes anywhere in Kiev any time they want to right?

  2. SPC 2
    25 June 2023 at 8:54 am

    The lines of division in Israel are being exposed

    In one camp the established state (IDF, Shin Bet, police and Supreme Court civil society) and in the other the nationalists – Likud (outer manifestation of the inner psyche of Bennie the Nyet to going to prison, the eretz Israel Zionists (settlement focus) and the Ultra-Orthodox.

    Settler violence runs counter to every Jewish value and is an act of national terrorism, the heads of the IDF, Shin Bet and Police said in a sternly worded statement on Saturday as US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called his Israeli counterpart Tzachi Hanegbi to demand accountability.

    “These attacks are against every moral and Jewish value and are also nationalist terrorism in every sense, and we are obliged to fight them,” said IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar and Police Chief Kobi Shabtai.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-747564

    The Knesset's Constitution, Law and Justice Committee will resume legislation connected to the government's controversial judicial reform on Sunday, after legislation was frozen for nearly three months as negotiations were held between representatives of the entire coalition and the opposition parties Yesh Atid and National Unity at the President's Residence in Jerusalem.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-747562

  3. Dennis Frank 3
    25 June 2023 at 9:12 am

    Seige mentality. Tanks don't veer off highways into roadside fields to circumvent ditches? I wonder if they were also planning a moat??

    As Wagner advanced over the course of the day, Moscow’s mayor had declared a “counter terrorism operation” and mechanical diggers carved ditches in the main highway running from the south into the capital to halt Prigozhin’s men.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-group-russia-forces-turn-back-moscow-prigozhin-declares/

    • Bearded Git 3.1
      25 June 2023 at 9:57 am

      Some reports on the BBC last night said that Wagner got within 200km of Moscow before turning round. That is hard to believe given that Rostov is 1100km from Moscow.

      • aj 3.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 10:57 am

        That is hard to believe

        And as usual, we are unable to take any msm report at face value. Just when I thought propaganda couldn't get any worse (Iraq) the last few years have taken it to a new level.

  4. Sanctuary 4
    25 June 2023 at 9:15 am

    "Doing a Wagner" – hyping your mates into going on strike only for you to turn up on Monday.

    Sounds like Prigozhin just wanted him and his henchman to be allowed to retire in style with their loot. I predict a “sudden illness” awaits.

    • joe90 4.1
      25 June 2023 at 9:56 am

      I predict a “sudden illness” awaits.

      Imagine Eric Prince calling for the heads of the Joint Chiefs, declaring his Blackwater goons were going to march on Washington, shot down multiple National Guard aircraft, killed an unknown number of Guardsmen, and then POTUS gave him legal immunity and allowed him to maintain his private army. It ain't over.

  5. Phillip ure 5
    25 June 2023 at 9:27 am

    Did luxon make a grand entrance to tory convention on his piaggio scooter..and wearing his 'born to be mild' t-shirt..?

    If not…why not..?

    • scotty 5.1
      25 June 2023 at 9:41 am

      Get my mojo running

      Head out of the driveway

      Looking for some traction

      Don’t care what I say.

      • Phillip ure 5.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 9:56 am

        Could it be..'got my lexus running’ etc..

        And..'looking for some mojo'..?

        (Sorry… it’s my inner-editor breaking out..)

        • Phillip ure 5.1.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 10:03 am

          (ahem..!..)..make that tesla..

          (Why does the edit option close off so prematurely..?..)

  6. ianmac 6
    25 June 2023 at 9:56 am

    Chloe Swarbrick says,

    "The police tell her, she says, that their major issue is “drunken disorderliness” from patrons spilling out of bars and clubs late at night. That’s a different issue from mental ill health and distress, which is different again to why people are involved in gangs, or why young people are involved in ramraids.

    “It’s very unhelpful the way in which all of those issues have been bundled up.”

    So very true so why aren't the pub hours/alcohol treated as a very real issue to be solved?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/chloe-swarbrick-i-become-such-a-bogeyman/66B5HPZJ6JCZ3GO6ESN77MOFIM/

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.1
      25 June 2023 at 10:29 am

      So very true so why aren't the pub hours/alcohol treated as a very real issue to be solved?

      Well…there is a large alcohol promoting lobby group. Incl Bars,Bottle stores, Hotels and "supermarkets" etc etc…..

      So…money, as in vast profits. And of course Govt revenue.

      https://www.actionpoint.org.nz/tags/cost_of_alcohol_to_society

      The other side of that…is also money. But its money spent trying to deal with the harm alcohol causes.

      Alcohol-related harm costs Aotearoa more than 7 billion dollars every year and is the leading cause of preventable death in Kiwis aged 15-49. Nearly 20% of all deaths for men, and 10% of all deaths for women are attributed to alcohol use.

      https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/healthcare-professionals-unite-address-7-billion-dollar-problem

      IMO The alcohol "pushers" arent too interested in not promoting their drug. Because of their aforesaid vast amounts of money and profit . Not much profit from highlighting the carnage and costs..to all of NZ

      • Phillip ure 6.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 10:42 am

        Look…!…over there..!

        Someone is smoking pot..!

        Effing druggies…!

        (Glug..glug..glug..)

      • SPC 6.1.2
        25 June 2023 at 10:57 am

        Legalese E, dance parties do not result in violence on the streets. And public places to smoke marijuana.

        Once people learn they can party/socialise without getting drunk, that bar culture might just get more civilised.

        • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.1.2.1
          25 June 2023 at 6:58 pm

          Hi, I didnt quite understand the earlier reply….but now see your additional comments. Thanks for that.

          In a "hypothetical/Alternate Earth"…alcohol might very well be a restricted class drug ? Maybe even small (very) amounts for your own use….strictly monitored. And enforced. I suppose there would be a Legalise It movement….with slogans : "Alcohol doesnt kill people : people kill "……

          Well, that maybe not such a good one, as alcohol .. does, through different ways. My links show some of the harm.

          Anyway an FYI….I do not advocate..for any of these drugs over another. I dont use. I just wanted to add my thoughts on….

          • Phillip ure 6.1.2.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 7:19 pm

            Having had quite a bit more than my fair share of most things of that nature..(with the exception of meth/p..)

            There are only two I would give wholehearted endorsement..

            One (of course..!)..is cannabis..

            And the other is MDMA/ecstasy…

            A lot of the others are fun in a bag…but they often have drawbacks..like addictions/nasty withdrawals etc..

            Pot + e is all you need..

            • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.1.2.1.1.1
              25 June 2023 at 7:30 pm

              Hi. I do see/read quite a bit about Medicinal Cannabis…etc. And really NZ missed a chance with the, at least, decriminalisation of …

              I do support Chloe Swarbrick . As beside this issue..she just shines with ideas. A Thinker. And a Green standout.

              • Phillip ure …
                25 June 2023 at 8:07 pm

                Nz has a history of missing the boat/getting the wrong end of the stick..with the drug thing..

                Post ww2 the international community wanted a safer place to grow their medicinal opium…

                So they approached nz…we said no thanks.. so they turned to tasmania…which has had that tidy little earner since then..

                Feckin short-sighted idjits..!…those nz politicians..then..and now now…

  7. Hunter Thompson II 7
    25 June 2023 at 10:32 am

    I had brief look at the new series Our Planet II, on Netflix (narrated by David Attenborough).

    The segment I saw on animal migration was truly depressing. Albatross chicks on an island, surrounded by plastic waste, some of which they ingest.

    We humans have made a great job of trashing both the plant and our future.

  8. joe90 8
    25 June 2023 at 10:36 am

    As always, follow the money.

    @wartranslated

    In continuation of his interview, Prigozhin lists two reasons for the start of the SMO: a) personal ambitions of Shoygu and b) the desire of Russia's ruling clan, who were not satisfied with the Donbas, to appoint Medvedchuk as the president of Ukraine and divide its assets between each other for plundering. According to Prigozhin, denazification and demilitarisation make no sense since Azov wouldn't be exchanged for Medvedchuk otherwise.

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672186669762596865

  9. tsmithfield 9
    25 June 2023 at 10:40 am

    My thoughts on the Russian "coup" attempt.

    Firstly, I didn't think that Wagner had a realistic chance of taking Moscow. The Russians were too well prepared for that, with being able to blockade the highway, blow bridges if necessary, and attack Wagner columns from the air. And, the other thing is, that Putin would have been able to cut off financial resources from Wagner easily enough.

    But, secondly, the fact that this has happened at all does not bode well for Putin's longevity as leader. It suggests he is losing control of the situation. Here is some interesting analysis from someone who knows what he is talking about.

    • Phillip ure 9.1
      25 June 2023 at 11:06 am

      For a situation in such a state of flux..that link has some informed/nuanced commentary. .

      As in..it isn't over yet…

      • tsmithfield 9.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 11:21 am

        Someone else well worth listening to is Vlad Vexler. Just a quick one minute video here on his thoughts on the current situation.

        But, he has made the point previously that Putin has actively worked towards depoliticising Russians. That is, that there has been an unwritten agreement between Putin and the population that he will ensure they have a good life so long as they leave him to go about all his political ambitions without hinderance.

        However, now he isn't meeting his side of the bargain. And the likes of Prigozhin are demonstrating that it is possible to do something about that. So, I expect we are heading towards a period of considerable instability in Russia.

        • DS 9.1.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 1:33 pm

          Russians has always been profoundly depoliticised, with emphasis placed on keeping one's head down and staying out the way. Politics is a matter for elite squabbles. That is not new to Putin.

  10. aj 10
    25 June 2023 at 10:48 am

    This southern mayor, an embarrassment to Invercargill, nails his colours firmly to the Stop Co-governance rabble. And yes, Cadogan is a hero.

    Balclutha's Bryan Cadogan deserves mayor of the year for standing up to Julian Batchelor, but Invercargill's mayor Nobby Clark… not so much. Here's the guy, best known for repeatedly using the N word, being racist again in support of J-Batch tonight.

    https://twitter.com/awaterevalley/status/1672648955409367052

  11. Anne 11
    25 June 2023 at 10:57 am

    I recommend Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan's latest podcast 24 June 2023.

    It's 1hr 13mins long but well worth it.

    It covers media bias particularly in relation to the RNZ scandal, conflict force-fact- vacuums largely in relation to the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the disinformation age.

    Some fascinating revelations from two fiercely intelligent and experienced in the field academics.

    • tWiggle 11.1
      25 June 2023 at 3:07 pm

      That's an informative site, Anne. I found the piece from 4 weeks ago to be an excellent backgrounder to current internal Russian politics. Those are bits we don't see in our media, making it hard to interpret actions like the Wagner stunt.

    • Sanctuary 11.2
      25 June 2023 at 4:23 pm

      The RNZ scandal has got nothing to do with media bias. It is an open and shut case of an employee making unacknowledged changes to agency copy and committing a gross breach of trust.

      • Anne 11.2.1
        25 June 2023 at 5:00 pm

        That was bad wording on my part. They discussed the RNZ scandal then moved on to media bias and the other topics mentioned. I found the disinformation section and the Russian situation particularly revealing.

        We in the West have been led to believe there is majority support for Ukraine. This is not correct. Up to 80% of the world is either non aligned or is pro Russia. Buchanan outlined those countries who favour Russia's perspective and the historic reasons why.

        Imo, it changes the complexion and it would seem to me to be more appropriate to seek a deal with Russia rather than try and win what might be a non-winnable war?

  12. PsyclingLeft.Always 12
    25 June 2023 at 11:26 am

    Nicola Willis

    We will end stagflation

    And….

    Willis said Luxon had the intelligence, integrity and experience needed to "pick New Zealand up from its funk and turn it around".

    "You'll do it in your practical, methodical, disciplined way. You won't stand for fluff, you'll set high standards, you'll demand high performance, and you'll deliver results. You'll do it with heart and with your inexhaustible smile."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/492546/national-s-nicola-willis-warns-against-lazy-politics-of-envy

    Well…i had kinda heard the Stagflation word before…somewhere ?

    Nicola Willis been visiting Te Ara….History aye ? lol

    https://teara.govt.nz/en/graph/21631/stagflation

    As for her second quote ? Just risible. Was she being..Ironic ?

    )

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 12.1
      25 June 2023 at 11:49 am

      Re Stagflation..there was this also…(connections : )

      The New Zealand economy is currently "in peak stagflation", according to BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis.

      "And, of course, politics takes centre-stage as the General Election approaches."

      He says the October 14 General Election is shaping up to deliver one of the closest in a long time.

      "Ultimately, the minor parties will determine the outcome with the only certainty being we will not return a single party majority, as is now the case. Given that the policy prescriptions of the potential governments are quite different, and given the uncertainty of the outcome, investment activity is expected to be postponed until after the election. This increases the potential for the economy to contract in the second half of this year."

      https://www.interest.co.nz/business/122626/bnz-economists-say-solid-bounce-economic-activity-expected-second-half-next-year

      Oh yeah ? As in, unless nAct win? What with the "Stagflation" an all..Im kinda wondering if there will be a revisitation of "devilbeast" "dancing cossacks" etc; ?

      Cmon Labour..and Greens. There are many more voters who could..and should vote for you.

  13. observer 13
    25 June 2023 at 12:25 pm

    Luxon targets the real enemy … judges.

    This really is the most pathetic pandering. Many factors involved in causes of crime, and woke judges isn't one of them.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/election-2023-national-wants-limits-on-judges-discretion-during-sentencing.html

    • Dennis Frank 13.1
      25 June 2023 at 1:03 pm

      Just another posture in the eternal battle between Labour & National to see which is more ineffectual – as if the apparent parity of the two weren't the perpetual status quo.

      Neolibs absolutely hate have to spend money on crims, so the US policy of building prisons on every available bit of real estate doesn't work that well here. Since neolib economic policy is designed to mass-produce crims, you get a bit of a hiatus at the interface between market & justice, and postures to make Nat/Lab seem vaguely appealing at election time become necessary.

      Fortunately, judges are accountable to nobody, so they will continue to take the easy way out and let crims off the moral hook routinely despite any policy adopted by the mainstreamer parties. Move along now, nothing to see here.

    • Phillip ure 13.2
      25 June 2023 at 1:03 pm

      Luxon makes a grab for the populism-jugular…

    • Stephen D 13.3
      25 June 2023 at 4:26 pm

      Is this interfering with the judiciary or am I overreacting.

  14. Dennis Frank 14
    25 June 2023 at 1:17 pm

    When it comes to political theater, staging is extremely important, as the first three photos here show: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

    Here we see the vital importance of biological signalling. Photo #1 reveals the immense distance between Putin & his security council, consisting of 30 minions. They must be made to feel insignificant in relation to their master.

    Likewise photo #2 shows the distance between Putin and the top two in his military hierarchy. Instead of sitting them on either side of him, he has parked them way down the end where they have to yell at him to be heard through the rebounding echoes.

    Photo #3 is a close-up portion of #2, showing how they carefully keep their hands on the table so as not to be seen to be making any ulterior moves.

    • Phillip ure 14.1
      25 June 2023 at 4:12 pm

      Did you read it..?..or just look at the pictures..?

      I found it to be a useful backgrounder/read..

      So chrs for the link ..

      And what is your actual point re photos..?

      I get that you are reading quite a bit into the physical distances between ruler and minions..

      Did you miss the coronation of charley 3…?

      • Dennis Frank 14.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 4:24 pm

        Yeah I read it, thought it was worthwhile too. Biological signalling is integral to the deep Green view of life. I often encounter it in books by scientists – evolutionary psych, neuroscience, biology etc.

        I didn't watch the crowning but that ritual adheres to a traditional prescription going back centuries & I take your implied point. Incidentally, our new head of state flies under the radar of the media. His Green track record is (as the younger generation would put it) awesome. He detailed it in his book Harmony. Like me, he has acquired the neopythagorean view of the world…

        • Phillip ure 14.1.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 8:13 pm

          So you believe in a big fella…up there in the sky…

          Taking notes..and keeping an eye on us all..?

          • Dennis Frank 14.1.1.1.1
            26 June 2023 at 4:41 am

            The ole christian ancient hippie theory? smiley Kinda too much of a right-winger for me. If you go for total control you end up with a lot of explaining to do.

            Theologians never got far with that enterprise. He could have explained it all to us directly, though, rather than use a bunch of middlemen. Apparently he took off for elsewhere in the universe early in the first millennium BC since the account of direct interventions on this planet evaporate about then, so obviously higher priorities took over.

    • Adrian Thornton 14.2
      25 June 2023 at 4:29 pm

      Please tell me you aren't using the BBC as one of your sources of information on Putin or the war in Russia….

      like this bit though…..agree 100%…

      …”just another posture in the eternal battle between Labour & National to see which is more ineffectual – as if the apparent parity of the two weren't the perpetual status quo"…you can add the Greens and Act into that mix too IMO.

      • Dennis Frank 14.2.1
        25 June 2023 at 4:51 pm

        I stopped taking the BBC seriously years ago Adrian. Think it was when they shifted into clickbait mode. I quote them sometimes if it seems useful to some point I feel the need to make – doesn't mean I trust them. All media ought to be relativised…

        • Adrian Thornton 14.2.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 4:56 pm

          Whew!! that's a relief …"All media ought to be relativised"…yep, at the very least…probably unsavable at this point.

          • Phillip ure 14.2.1.1.1
            25 June 2023 at 7:26 pm

            Um..!…is there any media that you feel you can rely on..?

            If none…where do you get your information..?

            • Dennis Frank 14.2.1.1.1.1
              26 June 2023 at 4:50 am

              Define information. Bet you can't! wink You could try reading James Gleick's book The Information. I've read it twice.

              You could just google it. I mentioned onsite here a couple of months ago that conceptualising an informational dimension was a good idea. Or you could deconstruct the word to discern the root elements. I'd go for all of the above.

              There's also merit in seeing it from a user's perspective. All meaning is relative to context, therefore the utility of information depends on your intent & how you are likely to use it. Also, it's value-driven – if someone tells you something, do you want to believe it? It depends, eh? Relativity is the relevant metaphysical concept to apply once you factor all that in…

              • Phillip ure …
                26 June 2023 at 2:05 pm

                Or..it could be just a simple fact…like man walks into room..

                Berlin wall is pulled down..

                Or military force moves towards moscow..

                Y'know..just shit that happens..

                No real need to overthink it into oblivion..

                • Dennis Frank …
                  26 June 2023 at 2:25 pm

                  Well if you prefer pragmatism I'll happily agree. We use what seems useful. But you're talking to someone who spent a decade making news & current affairs stories in the TVNZ newsroom, not to mention another decade making tv ads before that. Multiple views of stuff like reality & facts are inevitable the more you have to wrap your head around media product purporting to combine them…

                  • Phillip ure …
                    26 June 2023 at 6:18 pm

                    Are you confessing that it's you we should blame for tvnz news being crap/superficial nonsense..?

                    But seriously..now that you are here..could you explain why it is all the faults of m.s.m…in one place…

                    I haven't watched it in years..but my memory is that subtract out the sport etc ..

                    There was really s.f.a.of real news…with squawking parrots as 'experts'..

                    Why was it so…?

                    • Dennis Frank …
                      27 June 2023 at 5:39 am

                      The short answer (insofar as I've been able to figure it out) is mass psychology plus the collective interests of those who control social systems – so you get an averaging effect.

                      A longer more satisfactory answer is ascertainable the more the observer/analyst can see how social groups generate their own collective descriptions of reality. This tendency seems to be natural but is warped by culture.

                      Public intellectuals are usually real slow sussing out this stuff: paradigm shifts have been touted as a conceptual key since Kuhn explained them way back but folks are reluctant to detect the paradigm when it's there. Due to it being tacit & inertial – part of our mental wallpaper, if you like.

                      Books about belief systems tend to scout the territory without identifying the generic features of what is causal. Systems theory itself is still nature-based, but there has been progress on the network front, so extension into social systems is happening gradually.

                      An important dimension to consider is the interplay between commonalities & differences. The former connect folks, the latter divide them. Media, consequently, hews to the former and creates commonly-held views & recycles them. When these are inaccurate, shit hits the fan…

  15. Dennis Frank 15
    25 June 2023 at 2:21 pm

    Interesting that the Biden administration is trying to help Trump:

    Monday morning, The Washington Post published a devastating story about attempts by leadership at the Department of Justice—including, most notably, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, and FBI Director Chris Wray—to avoid prosecuting Donald Trump. The story exposes how the DOJ quashed efforts to aggressively pursue Trump and other politically connected Republicans for their roles in attacking the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and instead adopted a more “cautious” approach aimed at avoiding the appearance of partisanship.

    Garland has his defenders. Many of them are institutionalists who are going to defend pretty much anybody who wears a suit, is vested with authority, and doesn’t upset traditional norms.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/its-official-the-doj-stalled-the-investigation-into-donald-trump/

    Official suit-wearers unite! Binary partisans must be eliminated! We want our glove-puppets to work together! God bless America!

  16. newsense 16
    25 June 2023 at 2:44 pm

    Anyone asked Luxon about privatised prisons?

  17. tsmithfield 17
    25 June 2023 at 3:06 pm

    Here is a great short video that gives a a blow by blow account of what happened in Russia. It looks like Prigozhin may have got his way so far as changes in the Russian MOD is concerned. The long term implications for Putin cannot be good.

    Fascinating stuff.

    • Dennis Frank 17.1
      25 June 2023 at 3:57 pm

      Interesting blend of free enterprise reportage & crowd-funding of subscribers to enable more of that. Ukrainian, but seemed credible to me. Putin now has to mask any removal of the two military commanders without seeming to do so. Xi will watch this space closely – saving face is vital in Chinese politics.

      If I were Putin I'd recall my ambassadors to China & the USA, kick them upstairs somehow, replace them with Shoigu to China & Gerasimov to the US. That would accomplish a face-saving demotion for the two quite nicely…

      • tsmithfield 17.1.1
        25 June 2023 at 4:46 pm

        Yeah. That guy is recognised as one of the best commentators, and seems to have good sources for giving fairly detailed accounts of battle events etc.

        And, it is quite clever how he slides into a promo without people realising it is happening.

    • Adrian Thornton 17.2
      25 June 2023 at 4:44 pm

      Dude are you being serious?….come on you really have to try and source some unbiased information better than that pal…no really,

      I know the neutral information out there is few and far between, but don't be so lazy.

      "Fascinating stuff"..gtfo

      • tsmithfield 17.2.1
        25 June 2023 at 5:14 pm

        Don’t write things off only because some one has a stated position on an issue.

        Try and find truly "unbiased". Everyone has a position to one degree or another. What is more important is accuracy and predictive value.

        And this guy does get cited a lot because he is recognised as quite accurate and balanced despite obviously being Ukrainian. And, he makes predictions about what will happen next based on information available to him. And very often he is right.

        • Adrian Thornton 17.2.1.1
          25 June 2023 at 5:45 pm

          Okay…well for a start the truck going up on the highway doesn't get hit with a missile….how does it explode…who knows?

          I have seen no evidence at all that Russian units conducted artillery strikes on RostovDo you really believe that if the Wagner fighters had destroyed five Russian aircraft, killing..what 10+ air crew, had got into firefights with MOD troops, took hostage very senior MOD officers etc etc..that the Russian MOD and govt is just going to walk away from that??
          …come on, I can't think of a possible scenario were any country in the world would let that stand.

          All of that, in my opinion defies logic…and when things start to turn logic on its head, I start to get suspicious…could have all those things happened? I guess, maybe, but I for one will keep my reading of this event open for the time being…

      • tWiggle 17.2.2
        25 June 2023 at 5:34 pm

        Defense Politics Asia takes a neutral, descriptive stance on military actions.

        DPA also debunks the spiralling aircraft shot in tsmithfield's link. Alas, DPA only posts once a day, so is not up to date with the Belarus deal. I think someone at TS listed DPA a while ago, and it's great because not emotive or slanted.

        • Adrian Thornton 17.2.2.1
          25 June 2023 at 5:56 pm

          Yes, I agree, I have been a DPA subscriber/patreon going back to before this conflict….he is probably about the most neutral source on the net that I know of anyway…he is also pretty good on Middle Eastern/Asian geo-politics in general

  18. Dennis Frank 18
    25 June 2023 at 4:47 pm

    Prigozhin is an oligarch according to Wikipedia, so his claim that the Ukraine war is necessary to Russian oligarchs and is therefore a racket is insider knowledge:

    Prigozhin in a series of videos and audio messages posted to Telegram on Friday and early Saturday accused Russia of striking a camp and killing “a huge amount” of his fighters — a claim the Russian Defense Ministry rejected. He also openly criticized the war, claiming it was "needed by oligarchs" and had turned into a "racket."

    https://www.axios.com/2023/06/24/prigozhin-wagner-putin-russia-uprising-belarus

    Telegram was created by a couple of young Russians & it made them billionaires within a few years…

    Telegram Messenger is a globally accessible freemium, cross-platform, encrypted, cloud-based and centralized instant messaging (IM) service.

    The application also provides optional end-to-end encrypted chats (popularly known as "secret chats") and video calling, VoIP, file sharing and several other features. In June 2022, Telegram surpassed 700 million monthly active users. Telegram has overtaken WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger to become the most popular instant messaging application in Belarus, Moldova, Jordan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Russia, and Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telegram_(software)

    • Dennis Frank 18.1
      25 June 2023 at 4:58 pm

      Addendum:

      Durov introduced commutative algebraic monads as a generalization of local objects in a generalized algebraic geometry. Versions of a tropical geometry, of an absolute geometry over a field with one element and an algebraic analogue of Arakelov geometry were realized in this setup.

      He holds the position of senior research fellow at the Laboratory of Algebra and Number Theory at the St Petersburg Department of Steklov Institute of Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Durov

      So there! Smartest dude in any room, & younger brother Pavel is almost 19 years old:

      Pavel Durov (born 10 October 1984) is a Russian-born French-Emirati entrepreneur who is known for founding social networking site VK and Telegram Messenger. As of 29 September 2022, his net worth is estimated at US$15.1 billion. In 2022, he was recognized as the richest person in the United Arab Emirates according to Forbes. In February 2023, Arabian Business named him the most powerful entrepreneur in Dubai.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Durov

    • weka 19.1
      25 June 2023 at 6:57 pm

      Good to hear the police front footing this by saying there is nothing to substantiate the buying firearms claim.

      • lprent 19.1.1
        26 June 2023 at 1:25 pm

        It’d be better when they finally get the damn gun registry fully back in place so that they could say that with a reasonable degree of certainty.

        Up to the 24th of June (ie 2 days ago) when the new registry legislation took effect, there a lot of weapons (and ammo) being traded to either people with firearms licences, and frequently to people without.

        There was no way that the police can really tell if there is more or less trading of weapons because they don’t track weapons. Hopefully that will start to change. But it will take a long time, probably most of a decade, before the registry is actually effective and useful based on registries being introduced elsewhere like Aussie.

        • Adrian Thornton 19.1.1.1
          26 June 2023 at 1:46 pm

          Couldn't reply on that other thread…
          https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-25-06-2023/#comment-1956553

          "I haven’t seen any reports that looks like more than a probe with a few armoured and limited infantry yet".

          I do not believe that is what is happening at all, but hey you are the gnarly old combat veteran around these parts, so how about you let us know where exactly, do you source your information on this subject Iprent?….I am sure we are all keen to know where your glean your singular insights on this conflict from…I know I am.

          …so how about a few links so we can all go and educate and hopefully elevate ourselves to your higher level of understanding…

    • Phillip ure 19.2
      25 June 2023 at 7:37 pm

      That nobby clark is an autoeroticist..pure and simple..

      Anti co-governance is racism writ large..

      So I guess by definition..he is a racist autoeroticist..

      He does almost make one yearn for shadbolt..

  20. tWiggle 20
    25 June 2023 at 7:19 pm

    Julian Batchelor in a Stop Co-governance meeting, talking about civil war, with 'them' beingbfunded by the government.

    https://twitter.com/StrayDogNZ/status/1672741675981230080

  21. Phillip ure 21
    25 June 2023 at 7:44 pm

    Is this f-wit coming to Auckland..?

    Might have to stir from the couch for him…

    I heckle.. therefore I am..

  22. tWiggle 22
    25 June 2023 at 7:48 pm

    Surgeon Maxine Ronald explains equity tool for fair health outcomes to E-Tangata

    I know Molly thought class had a bigger effect than ethnicity on health outcomes, advantaging middle-class Māori over poorer Pākeha. Ronald unpacks that.

    Ronald says 'We know that ethnicity, by itself, is an independent risk factor for poor health outcomes. My area of specialty is breast cancer. When we look at non-Māori women with breast cancer by decile, we see that wealthier women tend to do better. Women who are less well-off do worse.

    'But with Māori woman with breast cancer, all socio-economic groups do the same. Wealth is not protective for Māori. Ethnicity is the independent risk factor…

    'It’s why using ethnicity as one part of a prioritisation tool for surgery waiting lists is necessary and is justified. The wealth gap we see among non-Māori groups is also why the same tool will account for a patient’s socio-economic status. And the gap we see in outcomes for rural people is also why the tool accounts for geographic location too.

    'The key thing about the tool is that it’s designed to ensure everyone gets seen within their correct timeframes. Māori and Pacific people are not going to be pushing others further down the list. That’s just not how the tool is designed. Rather, its purpose is to prevent slippage of Māori and Pacific within their allocated surgical timeframes.'

    • Incognito 22.1
      25 June 2023 at 9:23 pm

      Orthopaedic surgeon Dr John Mutu-Grigg – chair of the Māori Health Advisory Group of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons – explains that ethnicity is an independent risk factor – that is, even if you take these other factors into account, merely being a Māori or Pacific Islander means you are at higher risk.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/focusonpolitics/audio/2018895430/ethnicity-in-health-debate-gets-under-mps-skin

    • Molly 22.2
      25 June 2023 at 9:52 pm

      "When you compare life expectancy from breast cancer and you look at the woman who came through the breast screening programme, you see Māori and non-Māori doing just as well as each other. They have the same life expectancy and that’s because there’s equity in the breast screening programme.

      Whereas if a woman has already developed a breast lump, then it’s different. The same structures don’t exist. She has to go to her GP, and the GP has to refer her to a hospital and she has to see a specialist. It’s not as tight a system. There are many more gaps for inequity to come through. The result is a massive difference in survival rates between Māori and non-Māori."

      What does "not as tight a system" mean?

      "There are many more gaps for inequity to come through. " – and what are they? The article does not identify these gaps – but they seem to be referencing socio-economics.

      • The Chairman 22.2.1
        25 June 2023 at 10:09 pm

        Indeed, Molly. Good questions.

      • pat 22.2.2
        25 June 2023 at 11:10 pm

        What indeed….and the point that appears to missing is this is all once someone has made it to the point of being considered for a surgical waiting list…..the state of the public health system is such that even getting assessed is nigh on mission impossible currently.

    • The Chairman 22.3
      25 June 2023 at 10:04 pm

      Rather, its purpose is to prevent slippage of Māori and Pacific within their allocated surgical timeframes.'

      What is the cause of the "slippage"?

      How does it prevent "slippage"?

    • Drowsy M. Kram 22.4
      25 June 2023 at 10:18 pm

      Thanks for linking to that expert medical perspective; imho the title captures the breast cancer surgeon's frustration: "Why do we have to keep explaining the ethnicity gap?"

      But what does she know. Maybe ‘explaining’ really is losing.

      Instead of witnessing an informed debate covering the vexed moral and ethical issues, the provisions of the Bill, what refinements of it might yet be required, and whether it is likely to gain the support of Parliament, viewers were subject to an unedifying slanging match between two politicians interested only in pushing their own viewpoint, and not being prepared to even consider whether there was anything even remotely meritorious in what the other was saying. Both were uncompromisingly rigid in their views, and neither was prepared to concede even a millimetre to the other.

      https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/98972/peter-dunne-bemoans-current-sorry-state-politics-which-has-seen-demise-give-and-take

      • Molly 22.4.1
        26 June 2023 at 10:11 am

        The article states that there is no disparity outcomes when routine screening reveals breast cancer, so that indicates it is unlikely that there is systematic bias from that diagnosis point.

        So, for the purposes of this conversation let's look at POSSIBLE places where the "gaps" might occur:

        (For brevity I'm using the acronym M&P for Maaori and Pacific women)

        SELF-EXAMINATION

        Is there a difference between M&P and non-M&P in:

        1. Knowledge of effective self-examination techniques;

        2. Regularity of self-examination;

        3. Value of self examination;

        Due to statistical preponderance of Diabetes 2 and HBP in M&P, it may be that BMI is greater, if so:

        4. Does greater BMI make it more difficult to ascertain anomalies by self examination?

        4a. Can this result in delays in identification until tumours have grown?

        4b. Greater BMI also is a statistical risk factor for breast cancer, so this may increase the effect and delay impact of 4a.

        CONTACT WITH PRIMARY CARE

        The article doesn't identify if there is a delay between self discovery of a lump and initial contact with a GP.

        So, comparing M&P to non M&P –

        5. Is there a statistical difference in time between lump discovery and first contact with GP?

        If so, what factors may contribute?

        ACCESS

        6. Location – distance, rural?

        7. Not enrolled at Primary Healthcare Organisation?

        8. GP appointment schedule filled?

        9. Cost of appointment prohibitive?

        10. Transport – access to suitable transport and/or cost?

        OTHER

        11. Personal reticence;

        12. Reluctance to be examined by another;

        13. Unsure of the significance, and reluctant to present and perhaps be told it's "nothing" (or "it's something"). Some prefer to be in limbo.

        14. This time period between discovery and first contact with GP should be recorded in the referral after the GP has done an examination of the lump. Eg. "After discovery of a lump two weeks ago…"

        NO REFERRAL BY GP WHEN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN

        15. Due to our centralised health system, it should be able to be determined if there is a statistical difference between M&P at non M&P at this point.

        DELAY IN REFERRAL

        16. Any statistical delay in referral should also be able to be lifted from the GP referral letter;

        DELAY IN SPECIALIST APPOINTMENT AFTER REFERRAL

        17. This statistic should be available from centralised health system and yet has not been identified as a significant factor;

        Delays may come from the similar factors as GP access:

        18. Location – regional lack of services;

        19. Under resourced services – delay in appointment;

        20. Transport – access and cost;

        SPECIALIST APPOINTMENT

        Given that outcomes from the diagnosis are said to be equal from this point there's no need to go further.

        The only possible factors to look at here are – is there a statistical difference between M&P and non M&P for:

        21. Non-attendance;

        22. Requirement for re-scheduling.

        I'm in no doubt that service providers will have possible factors to add to the list.

        In fact, the likelihood of women being carers for others may also account for delays as they have to coordinate their healthcare with multiple schedules. More M&P women may be in this position.

        However, all these factors are not unique to M&P, they apply to non-M&P people in the same circumstances.

        So, it is not definitive that outcomes are an inequity based on ethnicity.

        The casual hand waving in the article to references that DON'T substantiate this assumption, is intended to obfuscate the lack of detail.

        I consider this a laziness that should be called out, and should be noted for the divisive impact it has not only politically but socially and at societal level.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 22.4.1.1
          26 June 2023 at 12:42 pm

          I consider this a laziness that should be called out, and should be noted for the divisive impact it has not only politically but socially and at societal level.

          Molly, your concerns about "laziness" and "divisive impact" are noted. Seems (to me) that one point the article ("Why do we have to keep explaining the ethnicity gap?") was making is that the 'divisive horse' has bolted – and some decades ago at that.

          I'll be forever grateful that chance hitched my wagon to the European 'horse' – if the shoe had been on the other hoof I'd be hopping mad by now. Some people are waiting months for tax-funded operations – what's going on?!!! Makes you think?

          Growth in life expectancy slows [20 April 2021]
          The gap between Māori and non-Māori life expectancy at birth was 7.5 years for males and 7.3 years for females in 2017–2019.

          “Current debates that seek to revive animosities between ‘iwi’ vs ‘Kiwi,’ for example, are classic Cartesian devices – anachronistic, divisive colonial throwbacks.”

          • Molly 22.4.1.1.1
            26 June 2023 at 2:53 pm

            You are pointing to statistics regarding poverty, not health outcomes, which I have already pointed out may have an impact on health outcomes.

            Well, here's another dilemma for you Drowsy M. Kram.

            AFAIK, ethnicity is self-reported in our Ministry of Health without verification of any kind.

            How do we allow for this fact when looking at disparities by ethnicity?

            Where can we find the percentage of Māori who are recorded as Māori, vs those with Māori ancestry who don't declare that on their records?

            In terms of looking at statistical anomalies, investigating if there is a difference between these two groups would be very interesting and informative. Because those that haven't declared their Māori ancestry would have been included in non-Māori outcomes.

            If we added this group to the currently recorded Māori outcomes, what questions will be raised:

            1. If statistics remain the same – then not only is there more likely to be an ethnicity factor – the division between Māori and non-Maori outcomes is going to be even greater;
            2. If statistics worsen – that raises several questions about why – including that of institutional racism;
            3. If statistics improve – then why is there a difference Māori between that self-declare and those that don't?

            Also, as knowledge about the algorithm becomes known – if there is a difference between those cohorts – and non-declared Māori then decide to register as Māori on their NHI record – will improvement be due to the addition of a better outcome cohort or will it actually improve the outcomes for those currently self-registered as Māori?

            Are any of those looking at statistics going to keep track of any such changes?

            Lastly, how will anyone be stopped from registering as Māori on their NHI, given that there is (AFAIK, from personal experience) no verification process?

            • Drowsy M. Kram 22.4.1.1.1.1
              26 June 2023 at 4:00 pm

              You are pointing to statistics regarding poverty, not health outcomes, which I have already pointed out may have an impact on health outcomes.

              My comment @22.4.1.1 contained statistics regarding ethnicity gaps in the ultimate health outcome (differential average life expectancy), and average wealth (these are related) – surprised you missed the life expectancy statistics.

              The rest of your comment drew my attention inexorably back to Dame Anne Salmond's opinion, and suggests that neither of us is likely to be moved on how best to address the ethnicity gap in health outcomes.

              Can we at least agree that: (1) there is a pronounced ethnicity gap; (2) that this gap seems resistant to closure; and (3) that efforts to close this (and other) gaps typically elicit considerable, if not considered, agitation/heat – greater heat indeed, in some quarters, than that elicited by the gaps themselves?

              I'm content to align myself with the opinions of NZ breast cancer surgeon Dr Maxine Ronald, Distinguished Professor of Maori Studies and Anthropology Dame Ann Salmond, medical researchers and clinicians Andi Crawford and Fiona Langridge, and Bay Of Plenty District Health Board Chair, and Co-Chair Of The Māori Health Authority, Sharon Shea (MNZM). Imho these are five progressive voices of reason, although it will be a tough listen for many Kiwis, that's for sure.

              Pākehā/Palangi positionality: disentangling power and paralysis
              [2 Sept 2022; PDF]
              Until Pākehā/Palangi recognise our power is strengthened by racist systems we will continue to look outside of ourselves for solutions rather than within.
              …
              “Proactive, mutually supportive, and innovative relationships between Tangata Whenua and Tangata Tiriti are our future. We should embrace the change and reflect it within our new outcome-focused and equitable health system.” [ – Sharon Shea]

              • Molly …
                26 June 2023 at 4:13 pm

                "The rest of your comment drew my attention inexorably back to Dame Anne Salmond's opinion, and suggests that neither of us is likely to be moved on how best to address the ethnicity gap in health outcomes."

                If anyone bothered to answer the questions I have put forward, OR advise why they are not relevant, I would have no problem in changing my current position.

                However, what happens is further links repeating the same perspectives are provided – and no answers are forthcoming to the questions or points I put forward.

                For instance, ANY comment on the recording of ethnicity within the Ministry of Health or relevant links that show how the data is verified?

                I have no problems with getting information from your experts, who should also have no problems providing answers to fairly straightforward questions.

                Can you link to such answers? Or alternatively – answer them yourself.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  26 June 2023 at 4:54 pm

                  You raise an intriguing hurdle to progressive change; challenging, to be sure, but perhaps not insurmountable. Where there's a will, there's a way.
                  I'm no expert on that particular hurdle sad, so resorted to Google.
                  It's surprisingly easy to use – you should try it sometime wink

                  Googled "how is Māori ethnicity determined in New Zealand" – first hit was a Nov. 2019 URL. May be helpful, or not, depending on one's PoV.

                  https://vhin.co.nz/guides/what-information-is-available-about-maori-descent-in-the-idi/

                  That guide contained link to another, earlier (Sept 2017) guide, last updated August 2021. Change, eh?

                  Summary
                  The IDI contains ethnicity data from multiple sources and is a valuable tool for analyses that include ethnicity. However there is some distance to go until we have a fuller understanding about the quality of ethnicity data in the IDI. In the meantime it is important that researchers understand and acknowledge the limitations of ethnicity data in IDI, and make an effort to understand the broader issues surrounding ethnicity in New Zealand. Addressing the underlying drivers of health inequalities in New Zealand is a government responsibility and Treaty of Waitangi obligation.
                  https://vhin.co.nz/guides/ethnicity-and-the-idi/

                  This link might help as well, although it's not health-specific.

                  https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/ethnic-group-summaries-reveal-new-zealands-multicultural-make-up/

                  • Molly …
                    26 June 2023 at 5:30 pm

                    Thanks Drowsy M. Kram yes

                    Interesting link, that actually provides some other concerns and extra viewpoints to the ones I gave off the top of my head.

                    The first impression is that data is based on self-id, and verified by comparing various records of self-id. There also appear to be numerous references to the possible lack of integrity of ethnicity data. I'm going to spend some time having a look.

                    How these issues have been addressed in the current health algorithm, would be a valuable link if you do come across it.

                    (The reference to almost 200 year old Treaty should be challenged rather than blindly accepted as justification for modern policies. NZers with Māori ancestry are a different demographic from Māori from that period, just as non-Māori are. This needs to be acknowledged by political commentary and policy makers.)

        • The Chairman 22.4.1.2
          26 June 2023 at 1:05 pm

          Molly @ 22.4.1

          Nailed it.

          There is a lot of handwaving and as you rightly point out, there are numerous factors that can attribute to the disparity in healthcare/outcomes, thus life expectancy.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 22.4.1.2.1
            26 June 2023 at 1:34 pm

            There is a lot of handwaving…

            There’s certainly is a lot of agitated 'hand-waving' (and hand wringing) going on. It’s the usual response (by some) to proposals and policies that aim to close the ethnicity gap in health outcomes – to close for comfort?

            What happened to 'Closing the Gaps' anyway? Maybe quite a few Kiwis (not you, of course – you're "more left than most") don't really want these gaps closed at all – whaddaya reckon?

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_the_Gaps#Public_opinion

            • The Chairman 22.4.1.2.1.1
              26 June 2023 at 10:57 pm

              I reckon we are failing to address the real long term issues.

              I.e., poverty. Coupled with an insufficient health system that is badly failing to keep up with demand resulting in growing waiting lists and the need to ration/prioritise health procedures/care.

              And instead of sufficiently addressing the real issues (allowing them to continue to fester and do more harm) the Government has opted for an easier but insufficient out That aims to help counter these failings, while not fully solving them.

              Thus, countermeasures (via a new algorithm running a equity adjustor) set up by medical professionals, clinical services, and Māori health teams (which one would presume addressing poverty and providing a sufficient overall health system was way out of the reach of their scope) was put into place.

              Duncan Bliss (part of the team who created the algorithm for a new equity adjustor) told Newsroom he can't stress enough that clinical need “always takes precedence and the equity adjustor doesn’t interfere with that”.

              https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ethnicity-a-factor-in-surgery-waitlists-for-years

              Therefore, if clinical need always takes precedence and the equity adjustor doesn’t interfere with that, it seems he has admitted it has no impact, thus is unnecessary.

              Hipkins said:

              There is clear evidence that if someone is Māori, if someone is a Pacific Islander, if they are from a rural community, or if they are from a low-income background, they have been languishing for longer on the waitlists.

              https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/focusonpolitics/audio/2018895430/ethnicity-in-health-debate-gets-under-mps-skin

              Yet, with time spent on the waitlist also being a criteria, it once again implies ethnicity adjusting is unnecessary.

              In fact (see link below) Hipkins has asked the health minister to look at it to make sure the discrimination that already exists hasn’t been replaced by another discriminatory tool.

              https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ethnicity-a-factor-in-surgery-waitlists-for-years

              Implying he isn't even sure if it is discriminatory.

              • Drowsy M. Kram …
                27 June 2023 at 1:07 pm

                Therefore, if clinical need always takes precedence and the equity adjustor doesn’t interfere with that, it seems he has admitted it has no impact, thus is unnecessary.

                Perhaps you're right, or perhaps that's an odd take on Bliss' comments. I doubt that Bliss would agree with your conclusion, and I'm with him.

                What do you make of critiques that this is patients being prioritised over others based on ethnicity?
                This policy is a response to what is regarded as institutional racism over a long period of time, which has resulted in poor health outcomes for Māori and Pacific people in particular.

                I think the issue speaks to a broader issue of resourcing of the health system. Does our health system achieve what we wish it to achieve? Why do we need these elaborate, pro-equity prioritisation tools to help make selections? Is our health system well enough resourced to achieve what we wish it to achieve?

                [The] ranking and prioritisation process is unavoidable – this tool is designed to assist [clinicians] so that overall, when we look at the end of the year at the outcomes for surgery, we see something approaching fairer outcomes.

                And yes – the health professionals that provide NZ's public health services are under unreasonable pressure. So, how does our, or any government fund a needs-based public health service (cf. an 'ability to pay service') that achieves fair(er) outcomes? That ideal doesn’t come cheap.

                Ethnicity in health debate gets under MPs' skin
                [24 June 2023]
                His [Reti's] leader Christopher Luxon was around the corridor at the time, arguing "health need" was the only consideration. He said he did not care the measure had been designed by clinicians, and on being told the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons supported the tool, said it was just a difference of opinion.

                Implying he isn't even sure if it is discriminatory.

                I believe it's positive discrimination, but perhaps that judgement is best left to Kiwis who experience significant discrimination – that's not me.

                • The Chairman …
                  27 June 2023 at 4:43 pm

                  I think the issue speaks to a broader issue of resourcing of the health system.

                  He seems to agree with me there.wink

                  This policy is a response to what is regarded as institutional racism over a long period of time, which has resulted in poor health outcomes for Māori and Pacific people in particular.

                  Yes, we know what he is claiming it is in response too. However, he has admitted "he can't stress enough that clinical need always takes precedence and the equity adjustor doesn’t interfere with that”.

                  So it seems it is useless in addressing the poor health outcomes he is concerned about as it doesn’t interfere with clinical need taking precedence. Which brings us to Molly's point below.

                  It doesn't benefit Māori women long-term to have the outcomes adjusted, without addressing the possible contributors that may ensure that those surgery end adjustments are not necessary. I would like to ensure that any impediments at earlier stages are identified and resolved.

                  Positive discrimination is a failure to address discrimination at its core.

        • Anker 22.4.1.3
          26 June 2023 at 4:51 pm

          Nailing it again Molly,

          We are not going to get to the bottom of the disparities unless all factors are considered.

          Density of breast tissue is a risk factor for BC. Is this more common in Maori women?

          Also do we prioritize Jewish women for BC screening? I haven't heard of this and would be interested to know. They have high rates of carrying the Bracca gene which is associated with breast and ovarian cancer. So in this case there is a clear genetic disadvantage cause of race.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 22.4.1.3.1
            26 June 2023 at 5:00 pm

            We are not going to get to the bottom of the disparities unless all factors are considered.

            But once all factors have been considered, then (and only then?) maybe we can get to the bottom of it (the ethnicity gap in health outcomes).

            Further delay in getting to the bottom of it doesn't worry me personally, but I do wonder how those on the wrong side of the gap feel about it. We seem stuck ay the bottom.

            One thing’s for sure – those extra seven years of life (on average) are looking pretty good from my side of the gap.

            • Molly 22.4.1.3.1.1
              26 June 2023 at 5:38 pm

              "One thing’s for sure – those extra seven years of life (on average) are looking pretty good from my side of the gap."

              I have personal experience of being a Māori woman, with a life-shortening diagnosis of breast cancer. I don't consider this relevant to the conversation at hand, and my desire for privacy usually stops me from referring to it. But your statement above implies that anyone raising questions is not concerned for the wellbeing of all.

              So, my interest in ensuring that the right factors are identified is personal AND societal.

              It doesn't benefit Māori women long-term to have the outcomes adjusted, without addressing the possible contributors that may ensure that those surgery end adjustments are not necessary. I would like to ensure that any impediments at earlier stages are identified and resolved.

              As the original article indicated – there is no disparity once the diagnosis is made. There is room for improvement – then – before that point.

              • pat …
                26 June 2023 at 5:58 pm

                "It doesn't benefit Māori women long-term to have the outcomes adjusted, without addressing the possible contributors that may ensure that those surgery end adjustments are not necessary. I would like to ensure that any impediments at earlier stages are identified and resolved."

                This

                Trying to solve a problem by ignoring the cause(s) will not improve the effectiveness of any system….and this is exactly what this policy supports.

                We are not so resource rich that we can afford to waste the limited resources we do have pursuing actions that reduce our capacity.

              • Drowsy M. Kram …
                26 June 2023 at 8:08 pm

                But your statement above implies that anyone raising questions is not concerned for the wellbeing of all.

                This statement implies that?

                "One thing’s for sure – those extra seven years of life (on average) are looking pretty good from my side of the gap."

                How so? Surely an additional seven years of life (on average) isn't bad.

                As for "concern for the wellbeing of all" – yes, of course. But can't society be working towards both the wellbeing of all and closing the ethnicity health gap(s)? Imho, it's well past time to translate concern about that gap (and other problems) into action – no "back to the drawing board" for me.

                Pākehā/Palangi positionality: disentangling power and paralysis [2 Sept 2022; PDF]
                Until Pākehā/Palangi recognise our power is strengthened by racist systems we will continue to look outside of ourselves for solutions rather than within.

                Paralysis (failure to act) out of concern for wasting scarce resources, or some other fear, might have been justifiable 3, 2 or even 1 decade ago, but how long should our society, Govt and health professionals delay before acting on an awareness of this gap. Just a little longer, or should we wait a few more generations to perfact our understanding? Who knows, maybe that average 7-year gap will eventually close without positive discrimination – god knows Māori have been patient so far.

                It just seems so miserable (on average.)

                The contribution of avoidable mortality to the life expectancy gap in Māori and Pacific populations in New Zealand—a decomposition analysis [29 March 2019]

                Conclusion
                Avoidable mortality is a large proportion of all Māori and Pacific deaths in New Zealand and is a prominent contributor to the life expectancy differentials in these groups. This study provides detail of the potentially avoidable causes of death contributing to these inequitable life expectancy differentials. It further reinforces the need for policymakers to enhance prevention activities and improve and ensure equitable healthcare delivery. This will require establishing a clear equity focus in all polices across all health and social services. Furthermore, there are clear benefits of looking beyond individual factors and recognising the role of healthcare services in improving health equity, in particular the role of racism. It is important to note that not all approaches used to improve health outcomes for the majority of the population will result in a reduction in inequities, in fact some methods inadvertently increase inequities. To address these inequalities, policymakers should focus on prevention activities and improve healthcare delivery with a clear equity focus, and also support wider improvements in educational achievement and socioeconomic position for the Māori and Pacific populations. Implementing the systems changes that are required to achieve equity will likely improve health for all.

                • Molly …
                  26 June 2023 at 8:34 pm

                  What is interesting to me is that you are providing references that reflect my concerns, and identify the "gaps" where Māori health outcomes need to be addressed. Which also duplicate the possible places I have considered in previous comments.

                  ie. From your link above:

                  "Many of the drivers are related to the unequal distribution of the determinants of health. For example, the unequal distribution and access to resources such as income, education and employment, factors which often compound one another.7 These factors also pattern exposures to other risk factors such as tobacco use, poor nutrition, overcrowded and poor-quality housing, and drug and alcohol use."

                  They then carry on at length, about colonisation and systematic racism WITHOUT providing evidence of this.

                  Under avoidable deaths the following (which seems to relate to lifestyle or socioeconomic causes):

                  " For Māori, coronary disease and cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung in both males and females and avoidable injuries in males were the leading cause specific contributors. A finding specific to Māori males was the contribution of avoidable injuries, such as suicide and land transport accidents. Suicide was the fourth leading avoidable cause of the differential in Māori males. The finding relating to injuries was not replicated within Pacific males. Within both Pacific males and females, coronary disease, diabetes and stroke were the greatest cause-specific contributors to the differentials. Within Pacific females, the smaller contribution from conditions considered only preventable is predominantly due to lower mortality rates from cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung compared with Māori females. This difference could possibly be explained by the lower smoking rates in Pacific females compared with Māori females.28 A finding unique to Pacific females was the large contribution of uterine cancer which was the leading avoidable cancer contributing to the differential. Higher rates of uterine cancer among Pacific females have been noted elsewhere with identified causal risk factors being diabetes and obesity"

                  The paper itself focuses on the improvements needed at social and primary health care level.

                  The current policy under discussion is adjustment of outcome statistics not addressing these identified drivers of poor health and outcomes.

                  I tried to read the other paper but found it an exercise in cringe. I'll give it another attempt later on.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    27 June 2023 at 11:59 am

                    They then carry on at length, about colonisation and systematic racism WITHOUT providing evidence of this.

                    A couple of references cited in the paragraph from which you took the first quote in your comment @8:34 pm.

                    Colonisation, racism and indigenous health [2016]
                    In settler-colonies such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the historical impacts of colonisation on the health, social, economic and cultural experiences of Indigenous peoples are well documented. However, despite being a commonly deployed trope, there has been scant attention paid to precisely how colonial processes contribute to contemporary disparities in health between indigenous and non-indigenous peoples in these nation-states. After considering pertinent issues in defining indigeneity, this paper focuses on operationalising colonisation as a driver of indigenous health, with reference to emerging concepts such as historical trauma. Conceptualisations of coloniality vis-à-vis health and their critiques are then examined alongside the role of racism as an intersecting and overlapping phenomenon.

                    Racism and health in New Zealand: Prevalence over time and associations between recent experience of racism and health and wellbeing measures using national survey data [2018]
                    The higher experience of racism among non-European groups remains an issue in New Zealand and its potential effects on health may contribute to ethnic health inequities. Ongoing focus and monitoring of racism as a determinant of health is required to inform and improve interventions.

                    The first reference cited in the paper that you found to be (at a glance) "an exercise in cringe", is also a goodie, imho. We can agree that we disagree about the significance of the contribution of NZ's lengthy period of colonisation to systemic/institutional racism and differential Māori health outcomes now.

                    Why cultural safety rather than cultural competency is required to achieve health equity: a literature review and recommended definition [2019]
                    There are multiple and complex factors that drive Indigenous and ethnic health inequities including a violent colonial history that resulted in decimation of the Māori population and the appropriation of Māori wealth and power, which in turn has led to Māori now having differential exposure to the determinants of health [13] [14] and inequities in access to health services and the quality of the care received.
                    …
                    Importantly, it is not lack of awareness about ‘the culture of other groups’ that is driving health care inequities – inequities are primarily due to unequal power relationships, unfair distribution of the social determinants of health, marginalisation, biases, unexamined privilege, and institutional racism [13].

                    One of the authors of that paper is a brilliant clinician, or so it seemed to me when he managed the treatment of Mum's kidney disease at MidCentral Health – cringing was not for him.

                    What do you make of critiques that this is patients being prioritised over others based on ethnicity?
                    This policy is a response to what is regarded as institutional racism over a long period of time, which has resulted in poor health outcomes for Māori and Pacific people in particular.

                    I think the issue speaks to a broader issue of resourcing of the health system. Does our health system achieve what we wish it to achieve? Why do we need these elaborate, pro-equity prioritisation tools to help make selections? Is our health system well enough resourced to achieve what we wish it to achieve?

                    [The] ranking and prioritisation process is unavoidable – this tool is designed to assist [clinicians] so that overall, when we look at the end of the year at the outcomes for surgery, we see something approaching fairer outcomes.

                    I could support Luxon's "health need" being the only consideration though. After all, we want to avoid a situation where access to health services is determined by one's ability to pay – just imagine.

                    Ethnicity in health debate gets under MPs' skin
                    [24 June 2023]
                    His [Reti's] leader Christopher Luxon was around the corridor at the time, arguing "health need" was the only consideration. He said he did not care the measure had been designed by clinicians, and on being told the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons supported the tool, said it was just a difference of opinion.

            • The Chairman 22.4.1.3.1.2
              26 June 2023 at 11:28 pm

              But I do wonder how those on the wrong side of the gap feel about it.

              Probably gutted time was wasted coming up with this poor equity adjustor that seems to carry little weight and is potentially discriminatory.

              • Drowsy M. Kram …
                27 June 2023 at 1:14 pm

                Probably gutted time was wasted coming up with this poor equity adjustor that seems to carry little weight and is potentially discriminatory.

                You could always ask them, but be quick – they tend not to last too long sad

                • Molly …
                  27 June 2023 at 1:37 pm

                  Probably gutted time was wasted coming up with this poor equity adjustor that seems to carry little weight and is potentially discriminatory.

                  "You could always ask them, but be quick – they're tend not to last long sad"

                  I did answer:

                  .https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-25-06-2023/#comment-1956612

                  "I have personal experience of being a Māori woman, with a life-shortening diagnosis of breast cancer. ".

                  Obviously. the wrong type of Māori woman, with advanced breast cancer…so my perspective is not worth addressing by those that refer to themselves as colonisers (…in race, if not in deed).

                  Oh, the honourable guilt with a touch of self-aggrandisement.

                  So, will reiterate my apparently invisible perspective:

                  "It doesn't benefit Māori women long-term to have the outcomes adjusted, without addressing the possible contributors that may ensure that those surgery end adjustments are not necessary. I would like to ensure that any impediments at earlier stages are identified and resolved.

                  As the original article indicated – there is no disparity once the diagnosis is made. There is room for improvement – then – before that point.

                  I think between that summation, my previous comments and your provision of links that support my stated concerns, I have nothing else to add to this thread.

                  Unless – of course – you will be so kind as to provide criteria for how to identify genuine Māori voices that merit acknowledgement from a coloniser's point of view.

                  Take your time. I'm not quite on the way out as yet…wink

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    27 June 2023 at 5:00 pm

                    I'm not quite on the way out as yet…wink

                    yes Good, for you, Molly.

                    Re your request – regrettably, I'm not qualified to "provide criteria for how to identify genuine Māori voices that merit acknowledgement from a coloniser's point of view" (what a mouthful) – aroha mai.

                    Maybe Google can help out again – sometimes it can be really useful.

                    Where are the Māori? [12 September 2022]
                    From my experience, it’s astounding how many people in civic spaces consider a quick Google search to be the pinnacle of “doing the mahi” when it comes to equity and diversity.

                    Oh dear – wrong, again!

                    It's a good question, though, from other angles. For example, seems to me that adverts on NZ TV seldom present a Māori face where an Asian or Pasifika face will do – probably just my bias/ignorance showing.

                    But isn't it great to see such diversity of genuine Māori perspectives and opinions, for example yours, and (going back to the start of this thread @22) Maxine Ronald's, on Aotearoa's ethnicity health gaps and initiatives intended to shrink them in a timely manner.

                    Maxine Ronald: Why do we have to keep explaining the ethnicity gap? [25 June 2023]

                    Health Reforms: Whose voices are being heard?
                    [25 July 2022]
                    The quiet voices, that we most need to hear, fall out of that process.

                    • Molly …
                      27 June 2023 at 5:44 pm

                      "But isn't it great to see such diversity of genuine Māori perspectives and opinions, for example yours, and (going back to the start of this thread @22) Maxine Ronald's, on Aotearoa's ethnicity health gaps and initiatives intended to shrink them in a timely manner."

                      Yeah, Māori diversity. Not something I particularly recognise as "great" seeing as I know it's a given since we're all individuals. You know, like non-Māori are automatically assumed to have minds of their own.

                      Do you have any sense of being patronising here?

                      But I'll pre-emptively accept the acknowledgement and apology you couldn't bring yourself to offer for your trite:

                      ""You could always ask them, but be quick – they're tend not to last long sad"

                      Interesting, to see your coloniser guilt is historical and academic, not personal and current.

                  • The Chairman …
                    27 June 2023 at 7:17 pm

                    Thanks for all your input in this debate, Molly. And for sharing your personal circumstance.

                    All the best.

                    yes

                    • Molly …
                      27 June 2023 at 8:21 pm

                      All good, The Chairman.

                      I appreciate the good wishes. ( Now I'll return that info to be kept under my hat, where I prefer it to reside. wink)

                      I look forward to the dawning of the day when Māori are not spoken of in such academic terms, which ignores present day Māori diversity of thoughts and opinions.

                      (Of course, I have experienced racism. But it's not often, and it's not the be-all and end-all of life in NZ. And of course, like most Māori – I am both Māori and non-Māori. Colonised and coloniser. So when it is claimed, it needs to be robustly evidenced. The current discourse assumes constant and enduring racism in our institutions. So, I think it is important to ask for proof of such.)

                      I hesitate to play the Māori card in such conversations, because the points of discussion should stand on their own merits. But so much of the discussion, is around what specific Māori want, or how academics have generalised about Māori. It seems an acceptable form of racism to take that approved view of Māori, and apply it to all. No criticism of either that perspective, or indeed of Māori is allowed.

                      Anyway, more wood needed on the fire. I'm sure the conversation will spring up on another day. laugh

                  • The Chairman …
                    27 June 2023 at 10:38 pm

                    I look forward to the dawning of the day when Māori are not spoken of in such academic terms, which ignores present day Māori diversity of thoughts and opinions.

                    Indeed, Molly. Māori are often lumped together as one group.

                    The current discourse assumes constant and enduring racism in our institutions. So, I think it is important to ask for proof of such.

                    Yes. Details seem to be slim. For example, if it is so widespread, how many have been disciplined for this?

                    No criticism of either that perspective, or indeed of Māori is allowed.

                    I'm finding the no criticism allowed (or questioning for that matter) is being applied more and more these days.

                    By the way, IMO your points of discussion in this matter were/are totally valid and had no trouble standing on their own merit.

                    Thanks again.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    28 June 2023 at 12:14 am

                    Yeah, Māori diversity. Not something I particularly recognise as "great" seeing as I know it's a given since we're all individuals. You know, like non-Māori are automatically assumed to have minds of their own.

                    Do you have any sense of being patronising here?

                    No. Diversity of opinion is great – very valuable, in my experience.

                    As for "they tend not to last long", apologies. I wanted to reinforce (to The Chairman) that Māori life expectancy is less (on average) than non-Māori – it was not my intention to trivialise that ethnicity gap.

                    While the reasons for (and their relative contributions to) the health gaps are debatable, I agree with Maxine Ronald's opinion that "ethnicity is an independent [health] risk factor", and that "deliberate equity initiatives" (positive discrimination, if you will) can reduce outcome gaps between different ethnic groups.

                    Whether the initiative under discussion will prove effective in reducing ethnicity gaps in Kiwi health outcomes, time may tell. Meanwhile, debate about gaps and their origins/causes/solutions will continue.

                    Maxine Ronald: Why do we have to keep explaining the ethnicity gap? [25 June 2023]
                    One of the beautiful things that I’ve seen in my work is that when you implement equity structures into health systems then Māori do just as well as non-Māori. Pākehā don’t start doing badly — everyone starts doing well.
                    …
                    To be honest, it feels like we’re wasting our time having to explain all these things over and over to people who aren’t willing to listen or learn. Because when media stories come out that are framed in the way this one has been, with no context, and with none of the research whakapapa that sits behind the action, then people react viscerally, exposing their implicit and, sometimes, explicit biases.
                    …
                    It’s amazing how quickly the damage gets done. My worry is that people will now push back against the tool, that the many layers of people who are involved in organising waiting lists will misunderstand it because they’ve been encouraged to misunderstand it, and so they may undermine its use and how it is implemented, and then it will fail. And our other equity initiatives may fail because of the same kind of thing. That’s a real risk.
                    …
                    It’s so frustrating and it’s tiring. There’s an actual physical tiredness of having to deal with it, especially when it’s been landed on us as a surprise, as a headline out of the blue, which creates the conditions for racist reactions and interpretations.
                    …
                    There’s so much to do, and as Māori and Pacific doctors and surgeons, we shouldn’t have to keep stopping to explain why it needs doing.

                    Inequity isn’t a Māori problem. We didn’t create it. It’s not our house that needs to be rebuilt. We just want to get on with ensuring our people get the care they need and deserve.

                    Persuasive words, imho. I don't believe that my support for equity structures is due to "coloniser guilt", but I've been wrong before.

                    What do you make of critiques that this is patients being prioritised over others based on ethnicity?
                    [The] ranking and prioritisation process is unavoidable – this tool is designed to assist [clinicians] so that overall, when we look at the end of the year at the outcomes for surgery, we see something approaching fairer outcomes.

                    • Molly …
                      28 June 2023 at 9:11 am

                      Drowsy M. Kram

                      I understand that you don't realise that many of the links you post support the points I (and others) have made.

                      You have this time (thankfully) dropped the Māori from your celebration of diversity of opinion, so that's a small progress.

                      All your links, provide clear indicators of where factors can be addressed that will impact not just Māori but ALL those who share those risk factors – including Māori who have not self-identified as Māori.

                      The emotive appeal of articles like Maxine Ronald I find unconvincing. Once you strip all the excessive language out, you can see both the lack of supporting evidence and the failure to consider the real foundational factors.

                      If the proposed solution to raise academic outcomes for Māori so they could attend university – was to manually adjust all failing students to a higher level pass, then most would instantly recognise the issue.

                      It doesn't identify nor improve the factors that would actually deliver a better educational value for Māori – but Hey! – outcome measures have improved.

                      The low quality of ethnicity data – recognised by the link you provided – and the changeable aspect of it further impedes this type of short-sighted response.

          • Molly 22.4.1.3.2
            26 June 2023 at 6:07 pm

            "Density of breast tissue is a risk factor for BC. Is this more common in Maori women?"

            That's an interesting question. Comments have been made during my mammograms that my breast tissue is particularly dense. (No chuckles please…)

            "Also do we prioritize Jewish women for BC screening? I haven't heard of this and would be interested to know. They have high rates of carrying the Bracca gene which is associated with breast and ovarian cancer. So in this case there is a clear genetic disadvantage cause of race."

            That's another interesting question. It would be good to see if the preponderance of the BRCA mutation in certain ethnicities is significant enough to adjust for.

    • SPC 22.5
      26 June 2023 at 9:31 am

      If it is true that Maori have poorer access to primary health, which impacts on their continuing care while without treatment – there is cause to have an ethnic factor.

      Saying, then deal with that lack, does not resolve that problem in the here and now. Especially when the Opposition opposes as specific Maori Health Authority focused on the matter.

      And quite apart from that, having more Maori on waiting lists than others, places strain on the availability of primary health care delivery to other Maori.

      Part of improving Maori access to primary health care is reducing the number of Maori awaiting treatment.

      • Molly 22.5.1
        26 June 2023 at 10:34 am

        "And quite apart from that, having more Maori on waiting lists than others, places strain on the availability of primary health care delivery to other Maori."

        How do you draw this conclusion?

        This would only be true if healthcare access was rationed by ethnicity – which it is not.

        "Part of improving Maori access to primary health care is reducing the number of Maori awaiting treatment."

        Also, don't understand your reasoning here. Access to primary healthcare is entirely different to delivery of treatment after diagnosis which is mostly done by specialists.

        • SPC 22.5.1.1
          26 June 2023 at 10:52 am

          Some Maori access primary health care via whanau ora (apart from regional Maori areas).

          A person awaiting treatment would be more intensive primary health care oversight than the average patient.

          • Molly 22.5.1.1.1
            26 June 2023 at 2:57 pm

            Still unclear.

            Are you suggesting the service provided by Whanau Ora may account for delays?

    • Molly 22.6
      26 June 2023 at 10:37 am

      "I know Molly thought class had a bigger effect than ethnicity on health outcomes, advantaging middle-class Māori over poorer Pākeha. Ronald unpacks that."

      BTW. You do not appear to grasp what I think.

      It'd be more accurate to say "Molly suggested other factors may play into health outcomes."

      The rest of your comment I replied to separately.

  23. tWiggle 23
    25 June 2023 at 11:33 pm

    If the debate is between one bog-standard political position, left-or right-wing, and another based on 'alternative facts' and hate-filled rhetoric, then Bernard Shaw's 1962 answer to a debate challenge from Oswald Mosely seems useful still.

    "Dear Sir Oswald,

    Thank you for your letter and for your enclosures. I have given some thought to our recent correspondence. It is always difficult to decide on how to respond to people whose ethos is so alien and, in fact, repellent to one’s own. It is not that I take exception to the general points made by you but that every ounce of my energy has been devoted to an active opposition to cruel bigotry, compulsive violence, and the sadistic persecution which has characterised the philosophy and practice of fascism.

    I feel obliged to say that the emotional universes we inhabit are so distinct, and in deepest ways opposed, that nothing fruitful or sincere could ever emerge from association between us.

    I should like you to understand the intensity of this conviction on my part. It is not out of any attempt to be rude that I say this but because of all that I value in human experience and human achievement.

    Yours sincerely, Bertrand Russell".

    Burn!

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