Open mike 28/04/2023

27 comments on “Open mike 28/04/2023 ”

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1. Joe90 1

   28 April 2023 at 8:32 am

   A thousand words.

   Almost every major error and meltdown in Dem/left politics, from post-left fash apologism to popularist left-punching cringe, comes from fatally flawed attempts to solve what I call the Upper Left Quadrant problem. Here is the chart, and the fundamental problem: /1

   https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1651281534702460928.html

   (h/t https://twitter.com/daphlawless/status/1651390457761636352 )
   • Sanctuary 1.1

     28 April 2023 at 9:02 am

     Huge fun to play with that and alter it a bit for NZ – it isn't exact but fun none the less!

     This chart explains *so much* about modern NZ politics. What it says, simply, is that almost all the actual persuadable voters in the electorate aren't "moderates."

     They're cross-pressured extremists and…kinda fashy. They're socially bigoted and economically leftist. Needless to say, this is not great. It's a huge impediment for making progress. But it's also highly inconvenient for the major ideological factions in NZ politics.

     Let's start with "No Labels" style centrists. These are corporate folks who push the idea that most persuadable voters are socially liberal but economically conservative. TOP types. This is FLATLY FALSE. As you can see, there is almost NO ONE in that bottom right quadrant. The suburban TOP liberal does exist, of course – but their numbers are actually quite limited and they are far less economically conservative and more socially liberal than usually given credit for. They're not really persuadable and likelier to vote for Chloe than Seymour.

     Now let's take the socialist left. It is tempting to look at this chart and say "hey, there's opportunity for left populism here! Let's persuade some of these folks!" I myself made that error in 2016, thinking that left populism could win many of them over. That was…wrong. It was VERY wrong. The Trump presidency proved it. He went full Paul Ryan on economics, & lost none of his supporters over it. Trump-curious Upper Quadrant types didn't shift left. Instead, Bradbury/Trotter types went head over heels to the far-right in hatred of liberals.

     Then there are the Labour party populists like Chippy and McNaulty. They look at the Upper Left Quadrant and think "hey if we just toned down the social liberalism then these folks would vote for a milquetoast liberal party." Yeah….no. That doesn't work, either. An upper-quadrant voter who likes superannuation but hates LGBTQ people isn't going to vote Labour over National because you sidearmed trans people a little bit. A racist who wants no government spending for Maori only isn't going to vote Labour if you demure on diversity initiatives. Whether economic or social leftism overreaches sometimes is debatable on its own merits as public policy when it comes to, say, housing policy or co-governance. But it's worthless as an *electoral* strategy for reaching the Upper Left Quadrant voter. And, of course, the NZ political right is eating itself alive over this problem. It turns out no one actually believes in Rogernomics / Luxon conservatism. Economic conservatism was always a front for hurting the marginalised (see National's housing announcements). No one wants what David Seymour is selling, and it shows.

     The only real way to solve the Upper Left Quadrant Problem is by gradually sorting it out of the electorate, and being economically left-populist in the mold of younger voters. Younger voters are overwhelmingly bottom left quadrant (econ & soc left). Let the fash sort with the fash into the upper right. Let liberals and the left sort with each other.

     Leftists: stop trying to placate the fash with anti-globalism. Centrists: stop trying to be "anti-woke" or appeal to non-existent bottom-right quadrant voters. The country is going to get a lot more polarized before things get better, and things will only get better when the Jacinda/Chloe-aligned under-45s who vote Labour/Greens +20 points are a bigger and bigger share of the electorate. We're not getting any more conservative with age.
     • AB 1.1.1

       28 April 2023 at 10:21 am

       Interesting first thoughts – thanks.

       I was also struck by how thin the bottom right quadrant is. We are assailed by corporate types claiming to be socially liberal but economically conservative. It's maybe not actually much of a thing, which suggests it's more of a tactical pretense than a genuinely felt position.

       The crowded and conflicted upper left quadrant is playing out in front of our eyes with the trans rights slanging match. Your seem to imply that for people in this conflicted quadrant, one side of the conflict will be more determinative of their actual voting than the other. And that not understanding this will lead to naive tactics by politicians. That's a very interesting idea.

       I tend to agree that the way forward is for these two conflicted quadrants to be cleaned out by generational change. And these quadrants are not in fact coherent places to occupy. Fundamentally, this is because there are not separate 'social' and 'economic' dimensions. The 'economic' is entirely a social creation – and disembedding the economic from the social and pretending it has immutable 'laws' like some sort of science, is a source of many problems. It also means that these social/economic matrix analyses are ultimately built on a false assumption and we probably need a better tool.
     • roblogic 1.1.2

       28 April 2023 at 9:09 pm

       An unfortunately worded piece of rhetoric copy-pasted from American corporate democrats. According to the author, the working class is "fashy", "socially bigoted", "an impediment to progress", "Trump-curious", "in hatred of liberals", "racist" blah blah blah.

       Evidently such reprobates are an "Upper Left Quadrant Problem" to be "gradually sort[ed] out of the electorate".

       Pure divisive bullshit. This is a massive constituency that would have carried Bernie or Corbyn to power on a wave of people power, but was stuffed by their own parties, and awful slanders in the MSM, similar to the foregoing comment. Apparently the working class is not allowed to participate in democracy.
2. tsmithfield 2

   28 April 2023 at 9:08 am

   I was just wondering how those here feeling about Hipkin's seeming to almost be trying to out-National National at the moment.

   I get the thing about wanting to win the election, and competing for the middle ground etc. But Hipkins was part of the government that introduced a lot of the things he has since dumped. And, I wonder, if he is focussed so much on the pragmatism of winning that he is in danger of losing his ideological soul.
   • Anne 2.1

     28 April 2023 at 9:29 am

     Nah tsmithfield. He's centre of the political road. Always has been. Pragmatism is his middle name. He won't veer left or right from his current position because that is pretty much his ideological standpoint.

     The one thing he has got in spades is a commonsense, steady as she goes outlook which is more than the right-leaning leadership has demonstrated at this point in time.
     • Grey Area 2.1.1

       28 April 2023 at 5:40 pm

       That's supposed to make us feel better Anne? Labour- betraying NZ since 1984.
       • Anne 2.1.1.1

         28 April 2023 at 11:37 pm

         You can feel any way you like. Nobody cares. 🙄 Fact is fact whether you like it or not.
   • gsays 2.2

     28 April 2023 at 9:31 am

     Hipkins having an ideological soul!

     Brilliant.

     His ideology is re-election.

     Mr Pak 'n' Save, steak and cheese, like Key, has principles. If you don't like them he has some others.
   • Sanctuary 2.3

     28 April 2023 at 9:39 am

     If you'd asked me 5-6 years ago when Corbynism was riding high, AOC was in full flight and Trump had trashed the arch centrist blast from the past Hillary Clinton I would have said centrism was dead and buried.

     However since then, we've witnessed two things – first, the traditional political right self-radicalising in and out of office to ever more extremist culture war positions, from Fidesz in Hungary, the Tories (Suella Bravermann anyone?) in the UK, the MAGA/QANON Trump cult in the GOP, the increasingly extremist Morrison/Dutton in government in Aussie to the radicalisation of National's post 2020 rump caucus with a gowing number of vanguardist evangelical culture warriors using prosperity doctrine as a template to justify very unpopular economic policies.

     Secondly multi-global crisises like COVID and various natural disasters have placed competent government back in the centre of voter concern.

     The self-radicalisation of the traditional right and the need for good crisis management has given a new lease of life to centrism's main pitch – competent technocratric managerialism and an appeal to neoliberal incrementalism.

     As long as the right remains distracted by culture wars and unserious about governing then centrism will hang on.

     Just how viable it is in the long term for a healthy democracy to have as your sole realistic electoral options a choice between a bunch of unelectable increasingly far right culture warriors and the least worst centrist government that can be conjured up I'll leave to the reader to speculate.
     • Anne 2.3.1

       28 April 2023 at 10:27 am

       Ah well, pretty much what I said @2.1 but with the I's dotted and T's crossed in a manner few can achieve. Sanctuary is one of them. We have others too. 😉
   • Sabine 2.4

     28 April 2023 at 10:03 am

     I don't think Chippy has dumped anything. I think he has put things aside until after election when all these non dumped things will be back on the full burner. He never voiced any concern about unpopular policy options during the Jacinda Ardern days.

     Maybe rename or re-brand a few of the unpopular policies (see 3 / 5 / 10 waters or what evs it is called now)if you like but still the same stuff that upset people to the point where Jacinda felt they needed to leave in order to not tank Labour altogether on election day. And yes, i know their tank was empty.

     Not sure if he has achieved that. Winter is coming, it is going to be a hard winter for many – and i mean those that receive no support from government, and Labour has no policies articulated for that discontent that will be coming in with the cold.

     National, will do what National always does, so i have no expectations there.
     • Anne 2.4.1

       28 April 2023 at 10:39 am

       … upset people to the point where Jacinda felt they needed to leave in order to not tank Labour altogether…

       That scenario might fit your embittered political outlook Sabine but it happens to be wrong. Jacinda Ardern left because SHE had physically and mentally tanked after five of the most grueling years any NZ prime minister has ever had to face. The fact she lasted as long as she did is a testament to her courage and determination in the face of multiple crisis and a level of manufactured vitriol never seen in this country before.
       • Sabine 2.4.1.1

         28 April 2023 at 11:40 am

         I am being realistic. The polls had Jacinda in the lowest numbers possible, and that was as much a part in the decision making then Jacinda understanding that they had not enough left in the tank to fight against that. Did they receive bad press, yes and sometimes it was warranted and other times it was not, did they take decisions that in the end back fired, yes, that too, but the day they left and resigned their polls were in no where land, or at least not good enough to assure a guaranteed win. For the record, i was equally unimpressed with John Key resigning for very much the same reason. I believe that if someone has the slightest doubts that they can not do the job, they should not apply for it.

         https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131023687/poll-taken-before-pms-resignation-saw-arderns-favourability-rate-slide-into-negative-territory

         Unless of course you think that Stuff is embittered.

         As for Jacinda being a she/her – no thank you, that won't fly anymore. Unless they have claimed that they are a women with she/her pronouns i am staying on the safe side and use they/them and not assume their gender identity. Sex no longer is an arbiter of anything.

         After all we currently have a PM who can not define what a women is unless they have a pre-formulated answer to the questions ‘ what is a women’ or ‘can you define women’.
         So that is not helping in identifying who is a women.
         And that includes the idiocy of proclaiming to have half of cabinet being 'women' when they can't identify or define what a women is. The 50% could be made up of males who identify as women. IT is a meaningless statement, not worth the paper it is printed on.

         Jacindas years in government were no more grueling then the years of the CHCH earthquakes, world war 1 and two, and the Spanish influence to name a few hard years for people who ran the country. In fact, one could argue that they had it alright, as NZ as a whole was happy to help during the first year of Covid, and did help in keeping the country safe. And that support propelled them into a full majority in government.

         To me Jacinda Ardern is a person how sometimes excelled – the CHCH massacre was a fine showing of them, and sometimes did /say things that did not work for them. The mandates come to mind, the lawn protests come to mind, and in the end Self ID – any one who identifies as a man or a women is it, sex no longer being applicable to identify someone or to even just assume some ones 'idendity'. No more then i would assume you or anyone else to be either a women or a man unless they state so explicitly.

         Personally i have no more use for Jacinda then i have for John Key, they are people that at best create a world that is easier for workers/poor people at worst they make it harder , and every other year they get replaced and workers and the poor will have to live with their legacy what ever that may be, and they will still be looked after well thanks to nice appointments and perks courtesy of the tax payer.
       • Patricia Bremner 2.4.1.2

         28 April 2023 at 11:41 am

         Yes Anne, there are false narratives abounding, the biggest of those.." Labour has caused hardship."

         I don't think those bitter people realise how hard people are working to reconnect communities after the storms, how they are trying so hard to mend the patchwork of the contract act's lowest common denominator of any past work, the lowest price.

         The past lying about "efficiencies', which turned out to be the lowest bid for the contract, not the most efficient at meeting real needs.

         Our Forestry is an example. The cheapest labour transport and a small portion of the tree used. The left over materials? Some one else will wear that, "not their problem." All contracts need environmental frameworks which have been missing in the "austerity efficiency drive"of past governments.

         We need to ask ourselves, "What outcomes overall do we want?"

         It is not "a dog eat dog race to the bottom." It is community care and co-operation which supports people to find their good life.

         So called past efficiencies were built on poor practice, because contracting was aiming to be the cheapest not the best.

         To build consensus to work together threatens power plays of the 5%, and Chippy is avoiding the cult of personality, while setting frameworks in place and selecting a competent group of facilitators like Keirin McAnulty.

         It is always hard to win a 3rd term, but Chippy and Labour are giving it their best shot, with work done by Parker to show the rich were rich before covid, and are not contributing as much as their poorer cousins to the community pot, but they are happy to skew the playing field with huge donations to National and Act.

         Winter has always come Sabine, and remember this government provided a payment to help with that, and will always support encourage and help people in the face of huge problems. As Chippy stated, "we are for skills science and opportunity".

         Personally, at 81 I am glad we had the government we did through the problems we have had. I do not see the National or Act group as any improvement, and probably climate denial to read their skimpy policy positions.
         The raising of divisive issues to divide us into factions, is more of the same old same old from them.
3. Anne 3

   28 April 2023 at 12:29 pm

   As someone affected by the summer storms, I have had visits from multiple sources ranging from my insurance company, related groups, tradesmen of all shapes and sizes 😀 and other individuals. I'm surprised there have been no local rumours of a newly minted brothel in their midst but maybe age…….. 🙁

   All of them have gone above and beyond to be helpful and, at least in part, I believe the government's overall handling of the crisis has made a big difference. And of course it is just the latest of a series of crisis that have befallen this government and every one of them has been competently handled.

   If the past six years had followed a more normal course, many of the problems still facing the country would have been well on the way to recovery which is something the naysayers – that includes sections of the media as well at the opposition parties – never acknowledge of course.
   • Patricia Bremner 3.1

     28 April 2023 at 12:43 pm

     I hope it all holds good in this coming piece of weather Anne.
     • Anne 3.1.1

       29 April 2023 at 5:15 pm

       It beggars belief it might happen over again. This time more of NZ could be in the firing line. The outcome depends on a very stubborn high pressure system to the east of NZ which looks like it is going to refuse to move on.
4. SPC 4

   28 April 2023 at 3:56 pm

   The giant minds of National explain that their being nice to landlords policy allows trickledown to tenants … if and when landlords want to …

   rents have increased significantly in the nearly six years since Labour was elected. Median rents were sitting at $450 a week in September 2017. They have now reached a new record high of $600, increasing $60 since Labour's rental reform was introduced in February 2021 when the median weekly rent was $540.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/04/michael-wood-lashes-out-at-national-s-cold-hearted-promise-to-allow-evictions-without-reason-says-it-won-t-fix-lack-of-housing.html

   So in 3 years from 2017 to February 2021 rents went up $90 and in the 2 years since another $60 and this is proof that the new rental standards pushed up rent costs. It's basically the same rate of increase in rent as before the change.

   And these are the people who want to restore the teaching of maths back to where it was when they were in school?

   The average rent was $350 in March 2015 and increased to $450 in 2017. $100 that time. That rate of increase is clearly faster than since Feb 2021.

   https://ecoprofile.infometrics.co.nz/wellington%20region/StandardOfLiving/Rent

   More fact free policy from National pandering to their donors, party members and their interests, not those of tenants. Nor those who want to buy first homes as their policy is designed to enable more buying up of property by the rentier class.

   PS the dollar amounts of increase in recent years are off a higher base and thus a smaller percentage rate of increase per dollar (for those in the mathematically challenged National caucus).
5. Mac1 5

   28 April 2023 at 4:48 pm

   Here's National's policy. "“National has a plan to help combat the cost of living. We will bring discipline to government spending, reduce cost on businesses, fix worker shortages and provide tax relief to hard working Kiwis.”

   This is designed to fix what they say are these problems. “The recent release of benefit statistics shows that the cost-of-living crisis is completely out of control with more than $247 million spent in the last three months on hardship payments – the highest in New Zealand’s history.

   “Almost 659,000 New Zealanders received a hardship assistance payment in the first quarter of this year – more than a 100 per cent increase compared with five years ago.

   “The vast majority of hardship payments were for food, making it abundantly clear Kiwis are struggling to put food on the table.

   “Labour has been in power for over five and half years and their economic mismanagement and lack of plan to address the cost-of-living crisis is hurting too many New Zealanders, who are now unable to live without additional financial support."

   That, folks, is where National is going to be heading with its rhetoric and policies. All this from a news release emailed from Louise Upston's office today.
   • SPC 5.1

     28 April 2023 at 4:57 pm

     More New Zealanders to get hardship support

     22 October 2021.

     People who are struggling to meet essential costs such as rent, heating, and food may be eligible for hardship support from Work and Income.

     From 1 November, anyone who meets the increased income thresholds, such as casual or part-time workers, or people who aren't already getting financial support may be eligible for assistance.

     For example:

     • a single person, 18 years or older, working up to 40 hours a week on the minimum wage, and earning up to $800 a week (before tax) may be eligible for assistance.
     • a sole parent with one child, the weekly income threshold (before tax) will increase to $1,100 a week.
     • a couple’s income threshold will increase to $1,600 a week.

     https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/about-work-and-income/news/2021/more-new-zealanders-to-get-hardship-support.html
     • SPC 5.1.1

       28 April 2023 at 5:37 pm

       The National Party is merely identifying that Labour is helping people with the cost of living (the inflation is global by the way) increase via the hardship grant.
   • bwaghorn 5.2

     28 April 2023 at 5:33 pm

     They're right though, the problem is they ain't gonna fix it ,
6. Joe90 6

   28 April 2023 at 5:24 pm

   The animated simulation is quite something.

   The report's authors said their simulated peak height of the largest blast, number five in the sequence, was 85 metres.

   "Immediately after the explosion, the transient blast cavity that becomes the tsunami is 6km across, forming a wave 85m high on the north side of HTHH and 65m high to the south.

   "The wave runups from the 2022 HTHH explosive event comfortably meet the criteria for a megatsunami and contend for the largest event anywhere in the past 100 years."

   Watch a simulation of the eruption.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/488758/scale-of-2022-tonga-eruption-leads-to-rethink-on-underwater-volcanoes
7. Grey Area 7

   28 April 2023 at 5:49 pm

   Can we now agree the United States of America is fucked?

   Man shoots neighbour dead for using leqaf blower in own yard

   Why anyone believes that this failed state has anything of value to offer others on planet Earth trying to find a way to live a life of meaning and compassion amid climate collapse and gross human greed fails my comprehension.
   • Ngungukai 7.1

     29 April 2023 at 5:29 am

     The USA is the place to be, a six year old black child knocked on the neighbors door to get permission to recover his ball from the back lawn and got blown away. Molly the Monk. Hence I am not that keen on relaxing the Gun Laws here in NZ.
8. tWiggle 8

   28 April 2023 at 9:46 pm

   The brainwashing of my dad

   A US youtube doco that explores how outrage tv and outrage talkback rot social connections and turn mild people into angry, fearful bigots. Don’t think it doesn’t happen here.

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