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6:00 am, November 28th, 2012 - 60 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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To fight the war against climate change leadership is necessary.
Where will this leadership come from?
Doesn’t this strange paradox of dithering, procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and expedience and delays describe our present parliament when it comes to Climate Change. Especially when we also are entering a period of consequences.
The apologists and Ignorers of climate change are dominant, one each, in two of the major parties in parliament. And the Greens are busy tailoring their party to fit with this paradigm.
So for the order of the day, the big political question is:
Who will be New Zealand’s Climate Churchill?
“The Pearl Harbors are here. The Churchills and FDRs aren’t.”
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf
So what was so special about Churchill?
Winston Churchill, was a long serving Liberal Government MP and liberal cabinet Minister who lost his seat in the electoral landslide against the Liberals following WW1. Standing as a ‘constitutional anti-socialist’ independent, Churchill regained the seat of Epping, returning to parliament in 1924. Churchill however remained out of government from 1922 when he lost his original Liberal seat until 1939 when he was suddenly plucked from the obscurity of the back benches, to the premiership of the country. A promotion unrivaled in British parliamentary history.
What distinguished Churchill from all the other back bench MPs?
Despite the still ongoing Great Depression and massive social dislocation caused by mass unemployment. Rather than concentrate on economic issues, Churchill identified the rise of fascism as the singular greatest threat to civilisation. And refused, despite all sorts of pressure and abuse, to shut up about it. (Putting all British government MPs whether Liberal, Labour, or Conservative on notice.)
The other thing that distinguished Churchill from his peers was that he was completely non-sectarian, prepared to work with any grouping or party that was opposed to fascism. Despite being of the Right Churchill was prepared to work with the minority Labour Party and even Communist Party members, if they were opposed to fascism. This history has been covered up, and the British Conservative Party have claimed Churchill as one of their own, (Churchill had nominally taken up Tory membership in 1925). But up until 1939 when events proved him right, the Conservatives had long harboured a deep distrust of Churchill.
So who will it be, who will put NZ’s three parliamentary parties on notice that Climate Change cannot, and should not, be ignored?
http://blog.labour.org.nz/2012/11/15/national-100-dirty-on-the-environment-and-the-economy/
http://blog.labour.org.nz/2012/10/25/38028/
There will be no ‘Churchill’. The choice is between preserving ecospheres or preserving the economy. We don’t get to have our cake and eat it. ( Not even ‘green’ cake) Meanwhile, everyone is looking for a champion to come from institutions dedicated to preserving the economy.
We have already stacked the atmosphere and oceans to the extent that 2 degrees is no longer on the table. Now the target the economists and politicians hope to miss is betwwen 4 – 6 degrees.
Basically this.
Between the need to pay back the mountains of debt (and interest) which our financialised global economy has generated, the promises of a better material lifestyle which have been made to billions, and the fact that moving to “green” infrastructure and energy is going to take a hell of a lot of “dirty” fossil fuel driven energy expenditure, we won’t see any serious moves to cut back GHG emissions.
In fact, its not growth in the use of oil we are going to see over the next ten years (oil use as a % of total energy used has been declining for sometime now). It is a massive explosion in the use of coal…a growth trend which has been going for a decade or so now.
Chruchill, like Blair, Bush 1/2, Clinton, Obama, Clark, Key et al , was a war criminal!
As far back as you can go, +/- a couple of names, these people are in the pocket of the same groups todays politicians represent..
Jenny I think you have just answered your own question right there…Imagine the control it takes to pluck someone out….
Things don’t just happen, its time poeple accepted that!
Actually, to say he was “plucked from obscurity” is a bit rich. As the quote points out he’d spent the entire decade warning of oncoming war in an era of appeasement. He had extensive military experience both tactically and strategically (not always successfully – Gallipoli was largely his responsibility, when he was in charge of the Admiralty), and I seem to recall had called out the cavalry on strikers in the 1920s. He’d also been Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Yes, he was well-connected and high-born. Story of UK society. But he wasn’t an unpredictable or secret choice.
If I read your links, will you read mine?
“The average temperature for the Earth, or any region or even any specific place is very difficult to determine with any accuracy. At any given time surface air temperatures around the world range over about 100°C. Even in the same place they can vary by nearly that much seasonally and as much as 30°C or more in a day.
…
The purported 0.7°C of average global warming over the past century is highly uncertain. It is in fact less than the margin of error in our ability to determine the average temperature anywhere, much less globally. What portion of any such warming might be due to due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is even less certain.”
Read the rest here:
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2012/11/speak-loudly-and-carry-a-busted-hockey-stick
The ice isn’t melting? Fuck that’s some good cgi.
No the Antarctic ice is not melting. There’s more ice there than there’s been for years. Arctic ice is refreezing at a very rapid rate.
Really? Says who? I think you need to check your capacity for excrement: it seems to be accelerating.
You do understand about what causes more snow and therefore ice in a really cold climate right? That what you just described actually indicates that Antarctica is warming? That colder climates have less snow and ice formation and the first sign of warming in a really cold climate is that there is more moisture in the air to form snow. That the moisture is getting there means that there is more heat penetrating into the fridge.
I’m always amazed at how scientifically illiterate some people are. In this case you’d think that with water everywhere that people would find the implications of heat in the phase changes of water would be obvious…
And it is heading into winter in the Arctic. Of course it is freezing compared to what it was doing in summer. I guess you’ve never been around ponds in a winters morning? They get ice around the edges overnight and melt like crazy after the sun comes up. You have to have thick ice on a pond to not melt in the sun. There is very little thick ice in the Arctic any more.
The thickness appears to have migrated elsewhere.
“What distinguished Churchill from all other back bench MPs ?”
He shot a Dervish and lived to write about it in “The River War”
NZ, the rankings of shame!
As much as I support anything that discourages immigration to NZ, that website doesn’t look so reliable. 62% of NZers are obese? I don’t think so.
I have to agree about dodgy ” worst in the world” stats. Years ago, about 25, I was being driven through Athens on a Saturday night by a “cat-and-dog’ relative who proudly told me that Greece didn’t have any assault crime or rape/sexual assault crime. My question had been triggered by what looked like a woman getting a clip around the ear in a side street, a few kms later a girls/ boys scrap that looked nasty was under way just off the road. It obviously doesn’t happen if you don’t want to see it or report it. We at least have a very robust reportage regime on all sorts of things which does us no favours in these sort of surveys.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10849852
Robust like this…
Perhaps we should also stop reporting….hang on a sec!
I’m thinking our stats on family violence will be closer to those of other countries in the next year or so. National will then claim improvements when all that’s been changed is the reporting has been reduced.
I have heard in the past a criticism of international statistics (good and bad) is that when comparing NZ with other countries, outside of census data and certain international testing regimes, we’re better at counting. This is in part due to the ease of recording and collating small numbers in a small population and varying definitions of the factor being assessed. For example:
Hi Weka,
Depends on what Obese is measured as. Put it this way, when I look around me at work, or elsewhere, I see more people who would be deemed straight up fat in old school terms, and that would, I expect put them in the morbidly obese, if I was asked.
I see overweight and fat people everywhere now, so for mine 62%, easily!
In any case I was more looking for the poverty, crime, abuse, suicide type stats, which if you put fat, into the equation, are all symptoms of a very sick country!
Our positions in the tables has been internationally tragic for decades now, and sadly it is only going to get worse!
muzza
Can you be hungry and overweight.
I was in London as a child in WW2 – we were often hungry but never overweight – in fact historically we were very healthy – even with a daily dose of Cod Liver Oil.
Maybe muzza, but to my mind there is a difference between fat and obese, and what is wrong with those things anyway? Should immigrants fear contemporarily defined fatness in the same way they should fear crime?
The correlations between overweight and health outcomes aren’t as direct, or cause and effect as you seem to imply. And while people are getting fatter, esp younger people, there is no way that the rate of obesity in NZ is 62%.
The link that was used to back up the 62% is very poor. I’m not sure it actually is saying 62% of total population – the first page suggests that 62% of fat people are obese, although I couldn’t really makes sense of it. The problem is that once you have one poor example of evidence, it renders the rest a bit suspect.
The Labour Party Board will meet shortly to amongst other things, consider New Lynn LEC’s complaint about how their MP was treated recently, particularly whether the Whip went overboard a bit.
Any LEC out there who wants to send any similar thougths to the President, in time for Friday?
Some will wish last week away, others perhaps inclined to stride across the smoking battlefield and bayonet the wounded.
Hopefully the President ensures some actual calm and fairness restored amongst members, after the raw political tsunami has receded.
vapour trail
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_biases_in_judgment_and_decision_making
“ya got me turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese…I don’t think so”
great shepherding ad and Ad. Thankyou
Zen0
If you care about science and reason trumping blind ideology, get over to Kiwiblog and stick up for Dr Mike Joy, who is currently a messenger with a lot of bullet holes in him.
alex
I had a look at Kiwiblog and there were one or two standing up for facts and reasoned opinion from Dr Joy but it’s a wasps circle there and they are hostile to criticism made by anyone but themselves apparently. I suppose it requires a reexamination of their certainties which is time consuming and irritating. And a desire to get things right rther than get things personally cushy.
Pump-Action Both Barrels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias_mitigation
Pick a round and load up Troops (“load up load up those raaarber bullets…”)
set the cats amidst the doves
Rhetorical reminders?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetoric
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetorical_device
though they may lead to superfluidity
-Reckless Abandon Real Life (“send me an angel…send me an angel…right now…right now”)
PS. if i should stumble, catch myah fall
Billy “Love Gun”
Hey Mr. Tamborine man, sing a song for those who have seen the departing hand of god.
always in the dark, even at noon; condemned to take and never questioning.
No eternal reward can forgive us now for expecting the dawn.
Hi, I was thinking of you while cycling along the road; Hard Case! What next oh illustrious One? 🙂
Make some rules and then break them, probably. Last night I saw a film called Bitter Harvest. Have you seen it?
no, tell me your synopsis and let it be revealing; i’m out of ammo, so gonna go reload and then I might be able to make some insertions myself.
btw, do you believe this has affected the so-called real world of Pleasantville? interested to know your thoughts on breadth and audience appeal; production values have certainly improved (Take) note! 🙂
imagine who all these people are forming inferences.
“these are the people in your neighbourhood…your neighbourhood…your neigh-Bore-hood…
the people that you meet each day”
-Eeeeeernie, and he drove the fastest milk-cart in the West
Bitter Harvest: Eastern tale (Eastern Europe/Asia) retold in 1924 Ireland. Man decides to make his enemies the measure of his worth, then periodically forgets what he set out to prove, then loses the thread of whatever made him decide in the first place. Darkness that can’t define itself either as hot or cold, dry or wet, comedy or tragedy, or any other reference point; resulting in the kind of laughter that creates familiarity within the confines of terror.
Pleasantville and audience appeal: see your notes on cognitive bias. Communication is a unintentionally fraudulant process; written communications, not so unintentional. Honesty would be a fine thing – if any of us knew the language – and appeals of any kind are lies told in the best of interests. I’ve heard that silence is the greatest music, interupted by the anxiety of notes. Still the notes stick, regardless of the tune.
Once, while I sat outside a shop eating a pie I saw a woman escorted to her next job; brought in by a taxi, left a few minutes later on foot with slumped shoulders. My pie still tasted the same and the woman didn’t stop walking. These are the people in my neighbourhood. They were here before I arrived and will be here after I go.
read in the local paper of high domestic violence statistics as government cuts into sexual abuse support
scan C.T becoming a more indulgent writer; Winter I enjoy can be dry and cold.Understand that
Key, “Chinese people are very interested in New Zealand”; need help with your prophecy? An Honest
statement at long last and it seems like he is doing more thinking before flipping the burghers welcoming
the Junk. All Pink on the inside, Gorgon Bennett! are these swine flying too. It is only Time
yet they can’t put that Message in a Bottle and Pump it Roxanne you don’t have to put on the red light
I do not mind if you benefit from your body all night I stretched my manhood further when my ol’
Lady pulled the odd trick, Didn’t bother me none as I pawned a body in a more mechanical way.
LOTR trilogy not representative enough at all; not dirty enough by more than few % and this is Proof?
and anything with Anthony Hopkins in it Clarice we men can withdraw anytime and I Generally did
must be the soft-cocks that carry on none-the-less; Can’t say “That’s not self-control, HTFU get on
your knees for a while with the Parliamentary cleaners up of there Purex (Trade Mark).Ethnography
IS Free, no need for fries with that. Went out on a Hot sunny day to engage some Whnz and nobody
There I trusted myself more to deliver than government departments and SOE’s this minnit. Nekkin’
romantically at outside Arnold’s Rebel, Top Dog or Alpha Phi Alpha you could not make this shit up.
Yet, smile and the world does smile back if it can pull back from the brink but I’m Thomas The
Rhymer.Iron sharpens Iron Hard Core unless it’s Cast and dies unlike my old friend Richard The
Librarian, Good Sort, no suit I used to stay along Flygers Line and now I Walk one, it’s Cash Only
for me Life’s What You Make It-Talk Talk with lprent as Head Master all can go to The Topps
of The Class even Holdsons Commodores and XLR8’s.Everywhere I randomly look there you are
Collective-Queen-Soul has always impressed me although I choose not to peck and retain scratchings
cannot live on words for we all know by now what man needs in his Sandwich Lord.Did The Borg
Return to Eden or was there a Giant in the East who passed away.Once you have met all the pollies
and classified their agenda and sampled their labels there dregs can leave a furry taste on the tongue.
The Naked and The Famous or The Naked and The Dead and when I walked The Streets of Laredo as a High Plains Drifter Saturday Night Fever I seemed Happy and some of the people were Happy too.
🙂 Long Live The Standard Bearer Quo Vadis 🙂
24 x 364 x 10 = ???
A pretty compelling program last night on TV3 a repeat of “Inside Child Poverty.” Rather timely too don’t you think?
http://ondemand.tv3.co.nz/Inside-New-Zealand-Inside-Child-Poverty/tabid/59/articleID/4761/MCat/342/Default.aspx
Heatley and Ryall need to periodically visit the children’s ward of hospitals. Then they may get it how the home and not seeing a doctor soon enough due to the cost impacts on children.
I liked the way the doco explained how NZ got this way and that NZ is third to last just ahead of Turkey and Mexico on the OCD index.
OECD index.
A moratorium on fracking is still appropriate until we have decent regulatory controls. http://localbodies-bsprout.blogspot.co.nz/2012/11/fracking-report-flags-issues.html
On things environmental… Claire Browining’s post on Pundit is worth a read:
She goes on to detail how this ‘brand’ has been demolished, until:
interesting phenomena this political web we weave…
We don’t need a Churchill.
We need a functioning democracy where we, the people ,are able to make informed decisions about the things that matter for ourselves.
Instead we are channelled into handing our ability to think, and to act, over to politicians who are all driven by the needs of the capitalist economy rather than the best interests of people and planet.
No politician, nor any political party will save us.
We have to do that for ourselves.
That means finding ways to act collectively despite our politicians.
And finding ways to collectively stop politicians doing bad shit in our name.
Israeli soldiers speak out
http://www.breakingthesilence.org.il/
Latest Roy Morgan is out. Labour is down 1% and Greens are up 3%.
Ouch.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4842/
Roy Morgan’s out:
Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 1%); Greens are 13.5% (up 3%), New Zealand First 6.5% (up 1.5 %). Total is 51.5%.
Nats drop slightly to 45%.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4842/
[lprent: enhanced the comment. Check the dates. Wouldn’t expect a pronounced reaction from the conference ]
Betcha … just …
Mostly margin of error changes. But good to see Green support up.
Polling period includes all of last week.
The Shearer acolytes are fond of saying that he has got Labour up in the polls.
In fact, if you look at the Roy Morgan poll numbers in January and February this year, you will see Labour around 30-31%. The dead cat bounce, post-election, Goff gone, new leader, honeymoon.
That was nine months ago. Labour haven’t moved.
The incumbents have been doing far worse over the course of this year however – how do you reconcile the fact that the Labour vote has not increased over time, given this?
I don’t. Nor did I try.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10849084
Palestinians demonised with half truths
[deleted]
Leslie Bravery is a member of the Palestine Human Rights Campaign.
Copyright ©2012, APN Holdings NZ Limited
[deleted]
[lprent: You see that word “Copyright” there? Do that again and I will abbreviate any future possibility of a repitition.
Short quotes and state why you think people should read it. ]
David H proposes (in jest) that Fisi submit a guest post.
I don’t think this is such a bad idea.
I firmly believe that we need better wingnuts. Farrar and Mr. Oil? Give me a break. Matthew “the story” Hooten? Yeah nah.
The challenges we face require input from all sides. Parliamentary debate is a farce. Would it hurt to introduce some intellect from the right (please excuse the oxymoron) every now and then? April Fools’ Day?
Let them lay out their case.
Wingnuts.thestandard.org.nz ?
I expect it’s a silly idea 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4TEjtrEDj6o
So what you like about Joyce but this is pretty good, might have even cracked a smile on the greens….
Is that from Question Time today? The Speaker was well out of order letting Joyce run on like that. P**sed off, very, I was. Major diversion from holding the government to account!
I despair of what our parliament has become.
Funnily enough a couple of the Labour MPs saw the funny side of it
FYI
28 November 2012Open Letter to NZ Prime Minister John Key: “Please confirm that NZ is going to support Palestine becoming a UN ‘non-member observer state’Dear Prime Minister,
http://www.mfat.govt.nz/Foreign-Relations/Middle-East/2-Arab-Israeli-conflict.php
Middle East
Arab – Israeli Conflict: New Zealand Position
Since the beginning of the Arab – Israeli conflict, New Zealand has sought to approach the issue even-handedly, seeking a solution that provided for a Jewish/Israeli and a Palestinian state on the land of the former British mandate of Palestine. This policy has its origins in our commitment to the 1947 United Nations (UN) partition resolution on Palestine (Jewish state, Arab state, and internationalisation of Jerusalem) and the 1967 UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution on the need for a just settlement and Israel’s withdrawal from occupied territories.
The policy has been underpinned through contributions to the UN Truce Supervision Organisation (UNTSO) since 1954 and to the Sinai Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) since 1982. We have also core funded the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA).
New Zealand continues to advocate for a balanced and constructive resolution of interests, based on the need for a lasting two-state settlement in accordance with UNSC resolutions and subsequent agreements between the two parties. We have sought in our statements in the United Nations to draw attention to the rights and responsibilities of both sides. In particular, while constantly advocating the need for a peaceful two-state settlement, New Zealand has expressed strong opposition to ongoing acts of violent resistance against Israel, while underlining Israel’s own responsibility to act lawfully and with restraint.
New Zealand is prepared to speak out against actions by any party that are likely to have contravened international law. These include rocket attacks by Hamas and/or other Palestinian militant groups against Israel. Equally, we have spoken out against actions by Israel, including the blockade of the Gaza Strip, and expansion of settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
This carefully balanced position is consistent with New Zealand’s international reputation for fair-mindedness. It reflects the value we, as a small country, place on the international rule of law.
Positions New Zealand takes on resolutions within the United Nations reflect this even-handed, balanced and constructive approach. We acknowledge that, ultimately, a lasting two-state settlement is something that will have to be negotiated between the two principle parties. But the UN and its members have a role to play in promoting dialogue to encourage that negotiated settlement. There is also an important role to play by the UN development and humanitarian agencies in addressing the severe humanitarian hardships, and growing health-related problems, among the Palestinian people, especially women and children.
New Zealand therefore supports UN resolutions that advance the two-state solution, uphold international law, including human rights and humanitarian law, or call for humanitarian assistance. ”
___________________________________________________________________________________________
THIS IS WHAT IS BEING VOTED UPON:
COMPLETE TEXT OF DRAFT UN RESOLUTION UPGRADING STATUS OF PALESTINE:
………………
http://www.innercitypress.com/palreso1icpga110812.pdf
http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=58963
BACKGROUND INFORMATION”
FURTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20299149
http://www.innercitypress.com/palreso1icpga110812.pdf
……………………..
Penny Bright
Jacquelyne Taylor
They really do eat their own.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/revenge-of-the-reality-based-community/
we could discuss amongst ourselves some more
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discourse_analysis
was Joe Strummer a Saint and come to some jazzy solutions Jimmie
and then conclude Oh Well, whatta ya gonna be doin’ next year no lie…
and surf the wave Cos charley don’t
So thats four Labour MPs going to the Hobbit premier and no Green MPs going.
I’m thinking the Greens have played this right (kiwis respect integrity) but how do you lot think?
I think its simply more maneuvering of the pawns around the board!
The Greens will NOT be any saviour on NZ, any more than Labour will, or any more than Cunliffe can could possibly be!
Apply the same to any name or party you like!
Look at the eyes…
This is a very bad individual!
I have always found these reinforcing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_Schedules#Schedules_of_reinforcement
and in variably turns Right Whales and other farreright wildlife belly up under the beating down sun 🙂