“I was trained as a spy in sort of the traditional sense of the word in that I lived and worked undercover overseas – pretending to work in a job that I’m not – and even being assigned a name that was not mine,” he said.
He said he had worked covertly as “a technical expert” for the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and as a trainer for the Defence Intelligence Agency.
“I don’t work with people. I don’t recruit agents. What I do is I put systems to work for the United States. And I’ve done that at all levels – from the bottom on the ground all the way to the top,” Snowden said.
He said he had lectured at the Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy “where I developed sources and methods for keeping our information and people secure in the most hostile and dangerous environments around the world”.
“So when they say I’m a low-level systems administrator, that I don’t know what I’m talking about, I’d say it’s somewhat misleading.”
Right my beauties, just want to build on Mickey’s (26 May) analysis of the two latest polls (One News Colmar Brunton and 3 News Reid Research:
Not interested in analysing through rose-tinted glasses (as our Tory chums would accuse us of) but do want to keep things in perspective.
(1)Volatility
You wouldn’t know it from the zero-sum rhetoric constantly regurgitated by National’s bought-and-paid-for bloggers like Whaleoil and Farrar – nor from leading journos like Armstrong, Clifton and Watkins – but this year (indeed, the whole electoral cycle since the last election) has been characterised by a good deal of volatility in public opinion. Just this year alone, National’s poll ratings have bounced around between 42% and 51% and their support in 2012 and 2013 saw a very similar range of movement.
Currently, the Nats are riding on a bit of a high, averaging 49% and the Right Bloc 52% (May average). Certainly, Whaleoil is making the most of it – with all the overblown rhetoric we’ve come to expect: “…dreadful reading for Labour”, Labour in “deep trouble” and so on (http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/05/two-polls-labour-big-trouble/).
But you can’t quite shake a profound sense of deja vu, here. Back in February-early March, National and the Right experienced an even better bounce – 5 consecutive polls giving the Nats a 50% average, with the Right Bloc as a whole on 53%. And precisely the same hyperbole (National soaring / Labour sinking ever deeper into the mire) followed. Throughout February, Whaleoil variously cast the Left as “a drowning man” (1), celebrated “National’s surge” (2), derided “Labour’s poll woes” (3) and “tensions inside caucus” (1), suggested the polls had “burst (Labour’s) bubble” (3), displayed a certain flair for the double-negative by declaring that “the polls throughout February have shown that (Labour’s) misplaced hope in a new leader was a false hope.” (3) (presumably as opposed to a thoroughly sound misplaced hope), crowed loudly that Labour had been “poll-axed” (4) with “Labour and Cunliffe sinking fast” (4), bullshitted outrageously about National’s “unprecedented levels of support” (3) apparently making it “the most popular government and Prime Minister in the modern era” (3), predicted “disaster for the Left” (5), speculating wildly that Labour was heading for a “resounding defeat” and that “Phil Goff’s record loss may well be challenged” come September. (3)
Those doyens of the Free Press – Armstrong, Clifton and Watkins et al – saw similar dire consequences for the Left and were certain that National’s poll ratings would hold, if not increase – after all, according to these leading journos, the Nats’ support levels had barely moved an inch since well before the 2011 Election. Even Chris Trotter on the Left jumped on the bandwagon, fearing it was “All over Bar the Counting”, with the Left apparently facing a far greater electoral humiliation than they could ever have dreaded.
So what actually happened in the 4 subsequent polls of March ? Did National continue its apparently inevitable onward surge to victory ? Well, not quite. In the wake of the Oravida and Te Kohanga Reo scandals, the Nats in fact plunged 5 percentage points to a 45% average over those 4 consecutive polls, with the Right Bloc falling by a similar margin (down 4 to 49%). Seems things weren’t cast in stone afterall !
Party support remained relatively steady in April (Nats 46% / Right 49%) and then a surge again in May to 49 and 52% for National and the Right respectively. Largely, of course, on the back of the latest 2 TV Polls which can reasonably be put down to a budget-bounce, with the Nats tentatively transgressing into Labour-lite territory. National’s spin-meisters will, of course, suggest this swing is permanent, indeed may presage an even greater surge over coming months. Mickey’s already dealt with this. All I’ll say for now is that given the demonstrable volatility in public opinion this year, I have serious doubts that National’s more softly-aligned supporters will stay in the blue corner for long. They’ve been moving back and forth for a long time now (not only between Labour and National / Green and National, but also in and out of the Undecided category).
So at the moment, I’d take all this talk of a new upward phase for National with a pinch of the proverbial. We’ve heard it all before.
(2)National Poll Support – Inflated in the Past and Well-Down relative to 2008 / 2011
Let’s also remind ourselves just how piss poor National’s poll ratings have been since the last election (compared to the 2007-2011 period). The contrast is quite striking.
But before laying out the solid numbers, I’ll just employ dear old Whaleoil himself to make my point for me. We’ve seen that Slater Jnr has made strenuous efforts this year to characterise the the polls as disastrous for Labour and brilliant for National. Go back to Whaleoil posts of 2008 and 2011 and you’ll see remarkably similar rhetoric: “Poll Devastation” (May 2008) (6), “Poll Destruction” (June 2008) (7), “Another Poll, Another Disaster for Labour” (June 2008) (8), “Labour on Perilous Downhill Slope” (June 2008) (9), “Rogue Poll Devastates Labour…Again” (september 2008) (10). And in 2011 – “Labour Poll Disaster” (early July 2011) (11), “Disaster for Hapless Labour” (July 2011) (12), “Labour’s Poll Disasters Continue” (late July 2011) (13), and finally, once again displaying a remarkably creative turn of phrase, “Labour’s Poll Disasters Continue” (October 2011) (14).
But dig a little deeper and you’ll find one major discrepancy between then and now. Whaleoil’s headlines might be uncannily similar but National’s poll ratings certainly aint !!!
His 2008 and 2011 posts were prompted by almost stratospheric National poll support in the mid-to-high 50s, occassionally reaching as much as 60%. His May 2008 “Poll Devastation”, for instance, alludes to a Fairfax Poll that put National at 56% – 27 points ahead of Labour, “Poll Destruction” (June 2008) focussed on National’s 55% in a One News Colmar Brunton Poll, while his 2011 posts were predicated upon Nat poll ratings of 55% ( 3 News ), 56% ( Fairfax ), 56% ( One News Colmar Brunton ) and 57% ( 3 News ).
Fast forward to 2014 and it speaks volumes that Whaleoil is now forced to employ precisely the same hyperbolic rhetoric when National is receiving 5-10 points less in the polls. A few weeks ago (March 30), he was even reduced to acclaiming the Right’s stunning poll numbers when National were on a mere 45.9% ( 3News ) and 47% ( One News ), 10-12 points down on some of those 2011 figures. ( “Well, I’ll be Fooked” (with an Irish accent), indeed !!! ).
And, of course, we all know precisely how “accurate” those polls of 2006-2011 were ! – the Nats took a mere 45% of the Party Vote at the 2008 Election (hardly any of the 62 polls of 08 had them that low, most put them above 50%). And they took 47% in 2011 (not one of the 125 polls carried out between Jan 2009 and the 2011 election had them that low, with the vast majority putting them over 50% and a sizeable minority over 55%).
A few stats to back me up are on the way in the not too distant future…….
The media seem oblivious to labour polling higher than on election day 2011, to come up with the bizarre conclusion that support for labour is falling.
Also, a less reported poll shows business confidence has fallen for the third month in a row a smidge over half of businesses are optimistic.
“New Zealand business confidence extended its slide from a record high to a third month, in the face of rising interest rates, declining dairy prices and a persistently high kiwi dollar. A net 53.5 percent of firms are optimistic about general business conditions this month, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey, down from a 20-year high of 70.8 percent in February.”
Cheers, Mickey. I’ll be away from ze internet for the next 24 hours – so won’t be able to reply to anyone. But feel free to use it. (I really need to learn how to make considerably less messy – and, as you can see, in some cases outrageously unsuccessful – links though).
swordfish – you pierced right into the guts of the matter.
One thing – you said National was often polling 5% to 10% down today, compared to just a few years ago. What about Labour’s relative polling today, compared to just a few years ago? And if there is a difference in shift, where did the difference go – into the undecideds?
I’m in a real rush, CV. Almost out the door. But I’ll reply directly to your questions in Open Mike at some point in the next few days. Absolutely promise – because, at the same time, I want to deal with arguments by our much-loved regularTory Troll Chris73 and Bloggers like Farrar and Whaleoil that Labour and Left support was equally over-stated (therefore cancelling out any disadvantage to the Nats) and that the Tories’ dive at the 2011 Election (relative to their polling throughout the previous year) was all down to the Tea-Cup saga.
They’re wrong on both counts. But It’ll take more time than I’ve got at the moment to set-out the figures.
Thought it might do swordfish’s offerings more justice if his second post was part of his initial thread?
swordfish 7
29 May 2014 at 9:25 am
Here’s a few stats to highlight the degree to which support for both National and the Right Bloc was consistently over-stated (month after month) in the run-up to the last 2 elections:
National Monthly Poll Averages 2011
( To read these stats, the Nats averaged 52% in the polls of January 2011 and that was 5 percentage points higher than the proportion they in fact received at the subsequent election )
Jan 52% (+5), Feb 52% (+5), March 52% (+5), April 54% (+7), May 52% (+5), June 53% (+6), July 53% (+6), August 54% (+7), Sept 55% (+8), Oct 54% (+7), Early Nov 52% (+5), Late Nov 51% (+4), 2011 Election: 47%
Nat Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 49% (+4), Feb 52% (+7), March 50% (+5), April 51% (+6), May 52% (+7), June 54% (+9), July 51% (+6), August 49% (+4), Sept 49% (+4), Early/Mid Oct 48% (+3), Late Oct/Early Nov 46% (+1), 2008 Election: 45%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2011
Jan 56% (+3), Feb 55% (+2), March 55% (+2), April 58% (+5), May 56% (+3), June 58% (+5), July 57% (+4), August 57% (+4), Sept 59% (+6), Oct 57% (+4), Early Nov 56% (+3), Late Nov 55% (+2), 2011 Election: 53%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 52% (=), Feb 56% (+4), March 54% (+2), April 55% (+3), May 56% (+4), June 58% (+6), July 55% (+3), August 54% (+2), Sept 54% (+2), Early/Mid Oct 53% (+1), Late Oct/Early Nov 52% (=), 2008 Election: 52%
In January this year, National were averaging 7 points below their 2011 Jan average, in February 3 below, in March 6 below, in April 8 below and in May 3 below. The Right Bloc in January 2014 were averaging 7 below their 2011 January average, 2 below in Feb, 5 below in March, 9 below in April and 4 below in May.
The gaps are even greater if you compare the same point in the electoral cycle (4 months out, 6 months out, 8 months out etc – given that the elections of 08 and 11 took place in Nov rather than Sept – so comparing, for example, the May 2014 stats with the July 08 and 11 stats).
Here is an opportunity to vent your anger at Nationals # 2 snake oil salesman. The loud hailer battery will be fully charged for those that have a decent rant ready to rip.
Let the cabinet club present know that a recent poll showed over 60% of of Kiwi’s agree that they think that the National Party’s political donation structure is cronie capitalism!
Steve Joyce is addressing invited guests at 12:30 Friday May 30th 2014
at the ASB area of the Kensington Park Stadium.
If you have some issues you would like to draw to his attention this is an opportunity
to bring a banner, placard, leaflets to politely inform his luncheon guests of your misgivings of National Party Policies.
These may include their policies toward:
GMOs,
treaty issues, the continuing theft of Maori land
toxic mining,
water quality,
RMA reforms,
preventing local government provide rules to protect us and our environment issues.
And any other issue that gets on your goat.
from predatory investors,
TPPA,
charter schools, publicly funded ‘schools for profit’ with little or no oversight,
climate change denial and lack of response to protect dirty industry,
These are only suggestions I am sure there are many others.
Please Note: To those activists that have managed to infiltrate this political donations junket you are advised not to indulge in the feast on offer.
That is if you don’t want to risk the unpleasant experience of the sudden onset of explosive diarrhea. Just remember Stephen Joyce will be spraying enough verbal diarrhea that in itself is enough to make you vomit. So my advice is don’t subject yourself to a double dose!
Notice that Joyce seldom looks directly at those to whom he is speaking. Modestly eyes downcast. How sweet and demure. But the other day during QT as soon as Joyce began one of his long tedious answers Brownlie sitting beside him struggled and struggled to suppress a yawn. And failed!
Ha ha Gerry probably had too many pork pies for lunch and needed a nanny nap, mind you he has heard the ‘same old Joyce snake oil’ day in, day out. I loved Joyce’s interview on the Nation the other week where he was quite hysterical attacking Labour’s new monetary policy.
The jealousy of envy was very evident.
What a disgrace to the hard working wood work teachers out there. Gerry being a former of that profession. If you and I openly fell asleep on the job we would rightfully expect a strum up, to think the tax payer is paying for lard arse Gerry to nod off. At least I’m being productive for the taxpayer lol.
Morning Report (give them a high-five) did a short piece on Maya Angelou USA poet, a black woman with verve and style and experiences that have destroyed others. She put it together and made a mountain. And she came down from it to write poetry and become an academic and many other things. I couldn’t see an audio link but here is youtube.
Here is one for women and men who appreciate them.
I read “I know why the caged bird sings” many many years ago and it was a watershed moment. her voice is fabulous, so hearing her read her own works is a fullsome experience.
Here’s a few stats to highlight the degree to which support for both National and the Right Bloc was consistently over-stated (month after month) in the run-up to the last 2 elections:
National Monthly Poll Averages 2011
( To read these stats, the Nats averaged 52% in the polls of January 2011 and that was 5 percentage points higher than the proportion they in fact received at the subsequent election )
Jan 52% (+5), Feb 52% (+5), March 52% (+5), April 54% (+7), May 52% (+5), June 53% (+6), July 53% (+6), August 54% (+7), Sept 55% (+8), Oct 54% (+7), Early Nov 52% (+5), Late Nov 51% (+4), 2011 Election: 47%
Nat Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 49% (+4), Feb 52% (+7), March 50% (+5), April 51% (+6), May 52% (+7), June 54% (+9), July 51% (+6), August 49% (+4), Sept 49% (+4), Early/Mid Oct 48% (+3), Late Oct/Early Nov 46% (+1), 2008 Election: 45%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2011
Jan 56% (+3), Feb 55% (+2), March 55% (+2), April 58% (+5), May 56% (+3), June 58% (+5), July 57% (+4), August 57% (+4), Sept 59% (+6), Oct 57% (+4), Early Nov 56% (+3), Late Nov 55% (+2), 2011 Election: 53%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 52% (=), Feb 56% (+4), March 54% (+2), April 55% (+3), May 56% (+4), June 58% (+6), July 55% (+3), August 54% (+2), Sept 54% (+2), Early/Mid Oct 53% (+1), Late Oct/Early Nov 52% (=), 2008 Election: 52%
In January this year, National were averaging 7 points below their 2011 Jan average, in February 3 below, in March 6 below, in April 8 below and in May 3 below. The Right Bloc in January 2014 were averaging 7 below their 2011 January average, 2 below in Feb, 5 below in March, 9 below in April and 4 below in May.
The gaps are even greater if you compare the same point in the electoral cycle (4 months out, 6 months out, 8 months out etc – given that the elections of 08 and 11 took place in Nov rather than Sept – so comparing, for example, the May 2014 stats with the July 08 and 11 stats).
Gerry Brownlee, Controller of Christchurch. Done the expected poor job for the people in general, (expected by me and damn I am right, when it would be better to be wrong and eat humble pie.) Have some specific people received good outcomes? A small number. But you would never know the extent of his failure when listening to him.
He is an incredible politician, with the smooth delivery of half-truths, lies and promises that NACT specialises in. Not credible. I dub Brownlee The Incredible Hulk. No doubt this is not an original idea.
Gerry would still come across as an Incredible Sulk anyway.
There is another word that rhymes with that but I am not bringing physical appearance into the debate. Poor attitudinal characteristics relevant for statesmanship are another matter and need to be pointed out.
“An Anglican pastor has quit the church and is taking his congregation with him after the governing body moved ahead with plans to bless same-sex relationships.”
Wonder if a follow-up will show whether the congregation did follow him in significant numbers? Times are a-changing Vicar. Keep up lad. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11263531
the slimy little turd gluon espiner mentioned left wing about fifity times this morning on the right wing radio show with his other sad little righty mate. if he does it again I think I am going to upchuck about fifty weetbix!
Lolz Phillip, i can attest to a certain extent to the non-addictive nature of psychedelic substances, there’s a world of pain tho in the ”expression” of bottled up trauma, especially if expressed in a public place,
Such pain is unfortunately not necessarily confined to those who are with the help of pyschedelic’s doing the ”expressing” it tends to also extend to the ”audience”…
The next time someone drops a psychedelic and thinks they can fly, please do yourself a favour and take off from the ground and not the top of a multi storey car park.
he must have been dreaming…this is possible in the dream world where one can defy gravity and survive..ie wake up…also there is a theory that everyday things can be solved in the dream world …but how to remember ?
Lolz, like i, the US military knows quite a bit about the use of pyschedelics but will never tell, like for instance the ability for those subjected to X amounts of the substance over X period of time to have an ability to look straight through walls, even those constructed of concrete, and tell what a person on the other side of it is wearing…
The Peter Lyons article below from the Herald today is excellent.
It is probably misleading in one aspect where he quotes wage growth at 14% and inflation at 10% during the term of this government. Though these figures may well be right but from various media reports I have read it would seem the bulk of the pay rises have gone to the better off leaving the bottom 50% with wages not keeping up with inflation. (I don’t have stats but would love to see some).
Peter Lyons is very good; underrated. He relates economics to everyday life and to other themes in a way few can. Reminds me of Bruce Jesson.
This is another example: http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/298191/corporate-obfuscation-cannot-hide-truth
Column in the odt a few weeks back on how the inhumanity and downright unreasonableness of redundancy processes are flannelled in management speak to reduce people to disposable units.
Radionz item on putting on weight – strange that it has happened in last 30 years. There is a graphic on their site with two parents both overblown. It looks as if they are out doing what the government wants them to do – consumer spending.
The item says that NZ men have put on weight the fastest in their measurements – from OECD. Yeah we win again.
We could come up with pub games where men rush their stomachs at each other and see how far they can bounce the other outside a circle. That would make a change from tossing dwarfs.
And this is how the message ran, good afternoon 2011 Green party voters, the InternetMana alliance thanks you for the big ups, but, if you voted Green in 2011 it is best to stick with voting Green again in 2014,
There are ”other” rich sources of sourcing votes that the InternetMana alliance are excellently positioned to take full advantage of, including:
The fast failing Maori Party, party and electorate vote,
The tactical voters who did not vote Green last time round,
The missing million, the vast bulk of whom are registered but did not vote in 2011…
“Why making the election a Public Holiday would lift voting numbers.
…The fact we are one of the few democracies that can change power minus violence and intimidation should be a source of celebration and deep pride……I think that standing in line with your fellow citizens to vote is a necessary part of the engagement process and online voting doesn’t create that. Selfies proclaiming that people have voted will be a great means of building awareness, but it can’t replace the real social element of sharing the same physical space peacefully with people who have the opposite agenda that you do.
Apart from the ease with which online voting can be hacked, the physical space sharing social interaction is a crucial democratic engagement.
I think the reason our election should also be a public holiday is based on that shared social experience.
On the same subject, voting that is of the compulsory type, there appears to be a conference going on today in Wellington where the discussion has turned to that very topic, compulsory voting,
A professor, visiting i think from Ireland has said that if we want to have more of those able to participating then we should at least try compulsory voting,
Judith Collins Pfft, quoted on the same subject by RadioNZ National said that Compulsory Voting would ”be less democratic”,(that begs the question that compulsory enrollment to vote must really kneecap the democratic process right),
Bomber might be on to something there with the holiday idea, couple a day off with a compulsion to vote as the reward and we might get a far better turnout than the present…
Nah CV, why should those who are forced to work holidays be punished, a day in lieu would fix that and they could take their holiday on a day that the whole capitalist world wouldn’t collapse because of their absence,(being also allowed to cast a special vote as well would help)…
Yeah Tracey, to a certain extent what’s occurring is a ”beltway game” but for us political junkies and those interested enough to be taking even a minor interest what has occurred is quite enlightening,
Take Sharples for instance, Tory Lapdog or Rangatira???, it appears from the unfolding story that all it takes for Sharples to shed any vestiges of Mana and Rangatiratanga that He may or may not have previously possessed is for a couple of the Massah Bosses in the form of Tory MP’s/Minsters to bail Him up in a Parliamentary corridor and put the hard word on Him,
The last vestiges of the Maori Party voting base should take note,
National of course are desperate to delay this Bill until the House rises for the election, there’s miles of Bad Bad publicity inherent in English having to use His veto to trash the extra paid parental leave that the Bill contains,
National largely ”got away with” failing to impose its version of ”resource heaven” when it found that it couldn’t force through Legislation to impose its desired changes, simply because the toothless media hardly gave the situation a mention,
Lolz, Grant Robertson, in a loaded question posed to Gerry Brownlee in the House this afternoon enquired whether National intended to pass some more employment Legislation befor the House rises, methinks Grant believes National will not have the numbers to pass the intended Legislation either, the subtleties of this which seemed to fly straight over Brownlees head,
What such ”beltway games” expose where National hasn’t the numbers to pass its Legislative agenda into Law is simply a Government that is a lame-duck…
i didn’t see the parliament in session last night Tracey, aging from what i can gather Sharples wasn’t in the chamber for the vote, the fact that the Tory MP’s managed to bail Him up in the corridor would suggest tho that He wasn’t far away,
From one angled perception it could be suggested that Sharples deliberately let what occurred occur but there is not the slightest shred of evidence to suggest this, so i definitely wont be suggesting that Lol,
Obviously something lead the desperate National Government to believe it could kill Maroney’s Bill by voting the Maori Party proxies the wrong way, what it was we may never know, but, don’t believe for a moment that things within the Maori Party are all sweetness and light…
As an afterthought Tracey, Flavell should have stood in the Parliament today and waved the Maori Party/National Party coalition in the air and invited them to instruct the speaker to amend last nights vote,
He obviously has no eye for the theatrical and even less idea of the growing elephant in the room in the form of Annette Sykes growing support back home in the Waiariki electorate,
Flavell in effect begging the Speaker to alter what was something of National’s making simply makes Him look weak…
Since 2012, if an employee agrees, for a new position, the employer can offer a package and make its contribution inclusive of the gross salary if the employee agrees and joins kiwisaver?
If yes, for many lower skilled folks they are effectively agreeing to pay their kiwisaver contrib and the employers?
My advice make sure your a member of a Union, especially if your a low paid worker, do it on the down low if your afraid of that dirty 90 day trial law. Go to the CTU website for the right advice.
Yes, many employees will be lumping the employer share of kiwisaver.
Note that this does not apply to those on minimum wage, because minimum means minimum. For people earning the minimum, if they choose to join KS, their employer must pay the employer contribution in addition to their wage.
I think it is illegal. I’m pretty sure this has been tested in the courts. It is illegal for employers to demand that employees pay both contributions.
Currently it is legal the nats changed the law making it permissible. Which a number of ratbag employers did. The court case taken by a union in the aged care sector I think argued that for those on or close to minimum wage were in reality been paid less than the legal minimum happily they were successful. On the downside the employer s then counted this as a ‘payrise’ meaning getting an award the next year is much harder.
Do you have some info? I understood they were still writing the new legislation and had not released any details yet, so there is nothing to discuss but the knowledge they are writing the new legislation.
& that is a very short and very depressing conversation 🙂
New minimum ‘pay rate award’. A week can cover a fortnight. So you ‘work’ 20 hours one week, then 60 hours the next, and get paid 40 hours for both.
Maybe an employer can get you to work 120 hours one week, then drip-feed you your pay over the next couple of weeks. How soon before this flows on to the rest of the economy?
Imagine some of the more onerous and dangerous jobs being treated like this? Sooner or later something would have to give, and perhaps someone might be killed? Who then would be at fault? The employer, the employee, or the Government?
Imagine also the disruption to families.
On a separate note, Nick Smith has cancelled the Fiordland Monorail. Lets see what happens after the election!
i would suggest tho Phillip, that anyone listening to that pile of defecation from the evil baby look-a-like is either firmly in the fuck-you-Farrer camp or highly unlikely to vote InternetMana anyway,
I keep saying this to the ‘wing-nuts’, as far as the InternetMana alliance goes, its a science fiction double feature, the ‘Wing-nuts’ attempts at disparagement are far far to late, Doctor X has already built the creature…
Another laugh out loud coincidence???, the movie moguls from five of the Hollywood big studios had their legal eagles in the High Court at Auckland today arguing the toss trying to stop Dotcom getting His seized assets back,
i had the thought again, way too late children, Dotcom has already cashed up the InternetMana alliance so even if they could extract Him from the country befor the election, Slippery the Prime Minister will still be getting the Dotcom gift that just doesn’t stop giving, in Slippery’s case brain damage…
What chance Peter Dunne and Colin Craig look to stitch up something similar to Internet Mana?
Would make sense Dunne’s seat plus Colin’s 3%
Conservative Future anyone?
And that’s what’s lurking at the bottom of Pandora’s box now the $3m man and Hone have opened it.
Say goodbye to that coveted 3 seat gain as you blow kisses to the moral high ground.
I’ve noticed that with the tv3 news website in general. Fairly left leaning commentary in the majority has been my impression.
Not like Stuff which is very much the opposite.
Just did and wow! Paddy lost it in his ‘opinion piece’ – and those comments really lay into him. Some of them excellent analysis – not in his favour. Is the revolution about to happen?
PS – according to Paddy’s twitter feed, he went on leave last night;; long weekend in his home town, New Plymouth ? And suddenly this ‘contribution’.
lol, Poor wee Gower sounds like he is having a wee …er Paddy…
My response to Paddy’s hyperventilating:
Where was your passion when the National government ignored changing the MMP rules when they had a chance? Why didn’t they do that? This couldn’t have occurred if they had taken on board the recommendations.
Oh wait! I believe the answer is contained in his article ‘Never, ever was it envisaged they would be used as a back-door entry for a German millionaire to get his proxy into Parliament.‘
…wow! and that sounds like a pretty racist comment, there Paddy – what do you mean by that? – that it is o.k for NZ millionaires to rort the system? – is it just that you don’t want German born ones to do the rorting? Or is it more a thing about what political persuasion is involved when rorting of the system occurs?
Pretty easy fix to this one. The next government who gets in needs to tighten the MMP rules. Political parties, which of you are going to do that? [Did Labour already mention they would redress that? (not sure)]
In May 2012, HJS executive director Alan Mendoza explained the thinking behind the project:
“… we felt that such was public disgust with the system, there was a very real danger that politicians could seek to remedy the situation by legislating capitalism out of business.”
OPENING SPEECH IN THE FIRST READING DEBATE OF THE FEED THE KIDS BILL
Hone Harawira – MANA Leader and Te Tai Tokerau Member of Parliament
Wednesday 28 May 2014
Tēnā koe Mr Speaker
Mr Speaker, I move that the Education (Breakfast and Lunch Programmes in Schools) Amendment Bill be now read a first time.
I nominate the Māori Affairs Committee to consider the bill.
Mr Speaker, Nelson Mandela once said that “there can be no keener revelation of a society’s soul than the way in which it treats its children” and if I could add a comment, it would be “and blaming those too vulnerable to care for themselves and their children, speaks more about our selfishness than it does about the hopelessness of poverty.”
Mr Speaker, back in April last year I was part of a big MANA Feed the Kids gig where we fed more than 1,500 kids up in Otara. They had heaps of fun and when they left they all took a lunch away, happily chanting “Feed the Kids”, and I thought to myself – these kids get it, their whanau get it, their teachers get it, and I sincerely hope enough of us get it too, because Treasury itself has told us there are now 285,000 kids living in poverty in Aotearoa, 100,000 of whom go to school hungry every day.
Yes, it’s nice to know that KidsCan feeds some 10,000 of them most days and that the KickStart programme feeds about 12,000 a day, but the reality is that even with government’s announcement in last year’s Budget, nearly 80,000 children are still going to school hungry in Aotearoa, every single day.
And yes, schools around the country have started their own breakfast clubs with support from teachers, students, parents, local businesses and the wider community – but they tell us that it takes a lot of hard work, and a lot of goodwill to keep it going, and that having secure funding would be a godsend.
And the really embarrassing thing is that nearly every country in the OECD, apart from us, already runs programmes to feed kids at school.
Some, like Finland and Sweden provide fully state-funded meals to every school student as part of a wider framework of child wellbeing – a commitment that sees them regularly top the international surveys in child health and educational achievement.
Some provide free meals to kids with parents on low incomes and others provide free meals to schools in areas of high deprivation, but while the approaches differ, they all share the same view – backed up by the same kind of research and information from teachers, doctors, nurses and policy analysts, that is available to us here – that kids need a good feed every day if they are to develop into healthy, and well educated adults.
Mr Speaker, New Zealand really needs to join the rest of the enlightened world and make a commitment to feeding our kids, starting with those in greatest need, to help them to grow well and learn well.
Groups like the Child Poverty Action Group have long advocated for government-funded food in schools programmes as a simple and cheap step to reducing poverty.
The report of the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group on Solutions to Child Poverty, released a year and a half ago now, did not recommend throwing in a few dollars only if the corporates gave some as this government has proposed – no – they recommended that “government should develop and implement a government-funded food in schools programme” and that “government has a responsibility to provide leadership and resources, to assist schools through a national strategy for food in Early Childhood Centres and schools in low decile neighbourhoods.”
Mr Speaker – I have been humbled by the positive responses to MANA’s Feed the Kids Bill from a whole host of child, family, health, education, and faith organisations all around the country, who helped raise awareness about just how many of our kids are going to school hungry in Aotearoa, and what we should be doing about it.
They have worked hard to remind us all that the crisis of child hunger and its devastating effects on brain development, health and learning means we need to urgently focus on feeding the kids rather than blaming the parents; that poverty has doubled in the last 25 years and children are its greatest victim; and that poverty won’t go away without big changes in employment, wages, housing and support for families in need.
Mr Speaker – things have changed a lot from when everyone was scoffing at MANA for even talking about Feeding the Kids during Election 2011, to a TV poll last year that showed 70% of Kiwis support a government-funded food in schools programme; and to food in schools being the only policy issue to make the top 10 news stories in 2013.
And much of that awareness has come about as a result of the excellent work and commitment of the Community Coalition for Food in Schools – which now has 30 members – and in particular, the efforts of Deborah Morris-Travers, former CEO of Every Child Counts and now Advocacy Manager for UNICEF NZ.
Mr Speaker, the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group said that child poverty doesn’t just impact on children and their families – it costs all of us, a lot. In fact, it’s estimated that child poverty costs New Zealanders $6-8 billion a year – in health, justice system costs, and in lost productivity and a lower tax take – and yet we continue to be one of the worst performers in the OECD on child wellbeing.
Our rates of preventable diseases like rheumatic fever are high, we have lower educational achievement than in other developed countries, and yet we’ll happily spend nearly $1.5 billion a year on prisons to feed one of the highest incarceration rates in the world.
Unemployment is the highest it’s been for nearly 15 years, nearly half of all young Māori and PI are without work and are not in education or training, and the other half are getting ready to go to Aussie.
Feeding the Kids won’t solve all these problems – but it is real, it is affordable, it is something we can do right now, and we know that it will help our kids grow up to be better, healthier contributors to society.
We’ve costed the Bill to allow for a co-ordinator in each school to oversee the provision of breakfast and lunch in all decile 1-2 schools in Aotearoa; feeding more than 100,000 kids in our poorest communities; and using existing programmes like KidsCan and KickStart or working through other local initiatives.
With very few exceptions schools have supported the Feed the Kids kaupapa because they know they’ll get more bang for their educational buck – kids will turn up to school on time, they’ll be settled and not disruptive, and they’ll be ready to learn.
And while I’m at it I’d also like to thank all the secondary and tertiary students who backed this bill, because when young people say that hunger is their number one priority, and that food in schools is the best solution to it, then that says it all.
Mr Speaker – I know the bill isn’t perfect; I hear the korero about feeding the kids being a parent’s responsibility, but the truth is that a lot of people have been so poor, for so long, that they struggle to make the right choices and often end up making the wrong ones. And all the while our kids go hungry …
And I’ve heard a lot about increasing employment opportunities, and upgrading housing, and improving access to health and developing better educational pathways … and all of that is necessary and good, but it takes a long time to happen. And all the while our kids go hungry …
And every other proposal I’ve heard from the Child Poverty Action Group, the Children’s Commissioner, health promotion agencies and advisory groups all the way up to the World Health Organisation’s Report on Child Health, makes a lot of sense to me.
But all I want to do with this bill is make sure that as we work through all these other critical and important initiatives, our kids are getting fed.
Mr Speaker – I welcome the calls to extend the Bill to include the Kohanga and ECE sector and decile 3-4 schools, and to allow those involved in school and community gardens to make a contribution to this discussion too, because this is an exercise that will require the efforts of the whole community, and I urge the House to vote this bill through at first reading so that the Maori Affairs select committee can call for submissions from those who know best, and those who care most, in order that we can develop a robust food-in-schools programme that enhances the well-being of our children, and enhances the future prospects of our society.
All that stands between this bill going to its second reading, where it will receive proper debate and the full consideration, of parliament is the single vote of that scum Peter Dunne.
Just for this filthy act, every effort needs to be made, to ensure that Peter Dunne should not be returned to parliament as being morally and intellectually unfit for high office.
April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
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Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
Peter Dunne writes – The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious: we live in a troubled ...
1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
…it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisitionNOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes – The High Court ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same?Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the two days to 6:06am on Thursday, April 25:Politics: PM Christopher Luxon has set up a dual standard for ministerial competence by demoting two National Cabinet ministers while leaving also-struggling ...
Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
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Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
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Buzz from the Beehive Melissa Lee – as may be discerned from the screenshot above – has not been demoted for doing something seriously wrong as Minister of ...
Morning in London Mother hugs beloved daughter outside the converted shoe factory in which she is living.Afternoon in London Travelling writer takes himself and his wrist down to A&E, just to be sure. Read more ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – The recent announcement of the University Advisory Group, chaired by Sir Peter Gluckman, makes very clear where the Government’s focus and priorities lie. The remit of the Advisory Group is that Group members will consider challenges and opportunities for improvement in the university sector including: ...
Eric Crampton writes – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand desperately wants to find reasons to have workstreams in climate change. It makes little sense. They’ve run another stress test on the banks looking to see if they could find a prudential regulation case. They couldn’t. They ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Pundits from the left and the right are arguing that National’s Fast Track Bill that is designed to speed up infrastructure decisions could end up becoming mired in a cesspool of corruption. Political commentator ...
Looking at the headlines this morning it’s hard to feel anything other than pessimistic about the future of humanity.Note that I’m not speaking about the future of mankind, but the survival of our humanity. The values that we believe in seem to be ebbing away, by the day.Perhaps every generation ...
Swabbing mixed breed baby chicks to test for avian influenzaUh oh. Bird flu – often deadly to humans – is not only being transmitted from infected birds to dairy cows, but is now travelling between dairy cows. As of last Friday, Bloomberg News reports, there were 32 American dairy herds ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
What is it with the mining industry? Its not enough for them to pillage the earth - they apparently can't even be bothered getting resource consent to do so: The proponent behind a major mine near the Clutha River had already been undertaking activity in the area without a ...
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Chris Trotter writes – Willie Jackson is said to be planning a “media summit” to discuss “the state of the media and how to protect Fourth Estate Journalism”. Not only does the Editor of The Daily Blog, Martyn Bradbury, think this is a good idea, but he has also ...
Graeme Edgeler writes – This morning [April 21], the Wellington High Court is hearing a judicial review brought by Hon. Karen Chhour, the Minister for Children, against a decision of the Waitangi Tribunal. This is unusual, judicial reviews are much more likely to brought against ministers, rather than ...
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Calling all journalists, academics, planners, lawyers, political activists, environmentalists, and other members of the public who believe that the relationships between vested interests and politicians need to be scrutinised. We need to work together to make sure that the new Fast-Track Approvals Bill – currently being pushed through by the ...
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Snowden says he work as a snoop at all levels.
And he’s been fibbing on his travel documents too.
Have you ever been or are you now involved in espionage or sabotage…
Wonder if Mr Fletcher was working in the UK in the job that he says he was?
So basically the CIA would phone him, and he’d say: “Have you tried switching it off and on again?”
Snowden’s NBC interview.
why the internet/mana party will do so much better than most are predicting..
..we are going to have another sea-change..
http://whoar.co.nz/2014/bank-of-england-governor-capitalism-doomed-if-ethics-vanish-comment-ed-why-the-internetmana-party-will-succeed-they-will-promise-to-repair-our-ripped-up-social-contract/
How bizarre that National tried to stop someone who just became a grandfather from voting for a bill for improved paid parental leave.
Right my beauties, just want to build on Mickey’s (26 May) analysis of the two latest polls (One News Colmar Brunton and 3 News Reid Research:
Not interested in analysing through rose-tinted glasses (as our Tory chums would accuse us of) but do want to keep things in perspective.
(1) Volatility
You wouldn’t know it from the zero-sum rhetoric constantly regurgitated by National’s bought-and-paid-for bloggers like Whaleoil and Farrar – nor from leading journos like Armstrong, Clifton and Watkins – but this year (indeed, the whole electoral cycle since the last election) has been characterised by a good deal of volatility in public opinion. Just this year alone, National’s poll ratings have bounced around between 42% and 51% and their support in 2012 and 2013 saw a very similar range of movement.
Currently, the Nats are riding on a bit of a high, averaging 49% and the Right Bloc 52% (May average). Certainly, Whaleoil is making the most of it – with all the overblown rhetoric we’ve come to expect: “…dreadful reading for Labour”, Labour in “deep trouble” and so on (http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/05/two-polls-labour-big-trouble/).
But you can’t quite shake a profound sense of deja vu, here. Back in February-early March, National and the Right experienced an even better bounce – 5 consecutive polls giving the Nats a 50% average, with the Right Bloc as a whole on 53%. And precisely the same hyperbole (National soaring / Labour sinking ever deeper into the mire) followed. Throughout February, Whaleoil variously cast the Left as “a drowning man” (1), celebrated “National’s surge” (2), derided “Labour’s poll woes” (3) and “tensions inside caucus” (1), suggested the polls had “burst (Labour’s) bubble” (3), displayed a certain flair for the double-negative by declaring that “the polls throughout February have shown that (Labour’s) misplaced hope in a new leader was a false hope.” (3) (presumably as opposed to a thoroughly sound misplaced hope), crowed loudly that Labour had been “poll-axed” (4) with “Labour and Cunliffe sinking fast” (4), bullshitted outrageously about National’s “unprecedented levels of support” (3) apparently making it “the most popular government and Prime Minister in the modern era” (3), predicted “disaster for the Left” (5), speculating wildly that Labour was heading for a “resounding defeat” and that “Phil Goff’s record loss may well be challenged” come September. (3)
(1) http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/02/roy-morgan-poll-increases-pressure-cunliffe/
(2) http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/02/message-cunliffe/
(3) http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/02/labours-poll-woes-create-pressure-will-diamonds-coal/
(4) http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/03/labour-poll-axed-digipoll/
(5) http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/02/one-news-poll-signals-disaster-left/
Those doyens of the Free Press – Armstrong, Clifton and Watkins et al – saw similar dire consequences for the Left and were certain that National’s poll ratings would hold, if not increase – after all, according to these leading journos, the Nats’ support levels had barely moved an inch since well before the 2011 Election. Even Chris Trotter on the Left jumped on the bandwagon, fearing it was “All over Bar the Counting”, with the Left apparently facing a far greater electoral humiliation than they could ever have dreaded.
So what actually happened in the 4 subsequent polls of March ? Did National continue its apparently inevitable onward surge to victory ? Well, not quite. In the wake of the Oravida and Te Kohanga Reo scandals, the Nats in fact plunged 5 percentage points to a 45% average over those 4 consecutive polls, with the Right Bloc falling by a similar margin (down 4 to 49%). Seems things weren’t cast in stone afterall !
Party support remained relatively steady in April (Nats 46% / Right 49%) and then a surge again in May to 49 and 52% for National and the Right respectively. Largely, of course, on the back of the latest 2 TV Polls which can reasonably be put down to a budget-bounce, with the Nats tentatively transgressing into Labour-lite territory. National’s spin-meisters will, of course, suggest this swing is permanent, indeed may presage an even greater surge over coming months. Mickey’s already dealt with this. All I’ll say for now is that given the demonstrable volatility in public opinion this year, I have serious doubts that National’s more softly-aligned supporters will stay in the blue corner for long. They’ve been moving back and forth for a long time now (not only between Labour and National / Green and National, but also in and out of the Undecided category).
So at the moment, I’d take all this talk of a new upward phase for National with a pinch of the proverbial. We’ve heard it all before.
(2) National Poll Support – Inflated in the Past and Well-Down relative to 2008 / 2011
Let’s also remind ourselves just how piss poor National’s poll ratings have been since the last election (compared to the 2007-2011 period). The contrast is quite striking.
But before laying out the solid numbers, I’ll just employ dear old Whaleoil himself to make my point for me. We’ve seen that Slater Jnr has made strenuous efforts this year to characterise the the polls as disastrous for Labour and brilliant for National. Go back to Whaleoil posts of 2008 and 2011 and you’ll see remarkably similar rhetoric: “Poll Devastation” (May 2008) (6), “Poll Destruction” (June 2008) (7), “Another Poll, Another Disaster for Labour” (June 2008) (8), “Labour on Perilous Downhill Slope” (June 2008) (9), “Rogue Poll Devastates Labour…Again” (september 2008) (10). And in 2011 – “Labour Poll Disaster” (early July 2011) (11), “Disaster for Hapless Labour” (July 2011) (12), “Labour’s Poll Disasters Continue” (late July 2011) (13), and finally, once again displaying a remarkably creative turn of phrase, “Labour’s Poll Disasters Continue” (October 2011) (14).
(6)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2008/05/poll-devastation/
(7)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2008/06/poll-destruction/
(8)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2008/06/another-poll-another-disaster-for-labour/
(9)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2008/06/poll-of-polls-shows-labour-on-perilous-downhill-slope/
(10)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2008/09/rogue-poll-devastates-labour-again/
(11)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2011/07/labour-poll-disaster/
(12)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2011/07/digipoll-disaster-for-hapless-labour/
(13)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2011/07/labours-poll-disasters-continue/
(14)http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2011/10/labours-polls-disasters-continue/
But dig a little deeper and you’ll find one major discrepancy between then and now. Whaleoil’s headlines might be uncannily similar but National’s poll ratings certainly aint !!!
His 2008 and 2011 posts were prompted by almost stratospheric National poll support in the mid-to-high 50s, occassionally reaching as much as 60%. His May 2008 “Poll Devastation”, for instance, alludes to a Fairfax Poll that put National at 56% – 27 points ahead of Labour, “Poll Destruction” (June 2008) focussed on National’s 55% in a One News Colmar Brunton Poll, while his 2011 posts were predicated upon Nat poll ratings of 55% ( 3 News ), 56% ( Fairfax ), 56% ( One News Colmar Brunton ) and 57% ( 3 News ).
Fast forward to 2014 and it speaks volumes that Whaleoil is now forced to employ precisely the same hyperbolic rhetoric when National is receiving 5-10 points less in the polls. A few weeks ago (March 30), he was even reduced to acclaiming the Right’s stunning poll numbers when National were on a mere 45.9% ( 3News ) and 47% ( One News ), 10-12 points down on some of those 2011 figures. ( “Well, I’ll be Fooked” (with an Irish accent), indeed !!! ).
And, of course, we all know precisely how “accurate” those polls of 2006-2011 were ! – the Nats took a mere 45% of the Party Vote at the 2008 Election (hardly any of the 62 polls of 08 had them that low, most put them above 50%). And they took 47% in 2011 (not one of the 125 polls carried out between Jan 2009 and the 2011 election had them that low, with the vast majority putting them over 50% and a sizeable minority over 55%).
A few stats to back me up are on the way in the not too distant future…….
thanks for taking the time to put this together.
The media seem oblivious to labour polling higher than on election day 2011, to come up with the bizarre conclusion that support for labour is falling.
Also, a less reported poll shows business confidence has fallen for the third month in a row a smidge over half of businesses are optimistic.
“New Zealand business confidence extended its slide from a record high to a third month, in the face of rising interest rates, declining dairy prices and a persistently high kiwi dollar. A net 53.5 percent of firms are optimistic about general business conditions this month, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey, down from a 20-year high of 70.8 percent in February.”
that read research polling company that is often quoted had a howler just before the last election..
..their last pre-election poll predicted national would get six percent higher..
..than they actually got on the day..
.whoar..!..
..eh..?
and yet the media frequently report on high business confidence… but not this one, funny that, aye?
tracey..tracey..it’s ‘eh?’…
..’aye’ is affirmation of others’ efforts..an underlining..
..and usually comes with an exclamation-mark..
..(‘it’s the little things’..eh..?..)
..and yes..maybe we need a blip-styling crowd-sourced factoid effort..?
.maybe ‘read research overestimated nationals’ ’11 election-result by a whopping 6%’..
..could be the first entry..?
Thanks Swordfish. Might convert this to a guest post.
Cheers, Mickey. I’ll be away from ze internet for the next 24 hours – so won’t be able to reply to anyone. But feel free to use it. (I really need to learn how to make considerably less messy – and, as you can see, in some cases outrageously unsuccessful – links though).
swordfish – you pierced right into the guts of the matter.
One thing – you said National was often polling 5% to 10% down today, compared to just a few years ago. What about Labour’s relative polling today, compared to just a few years ago? And if there is a difference in shift, where did the difference go – into the undecideds?
I’m in a real rush, CV. Almost out the door. But I’ll reply directly to your questions in Open Mike at some point in the next few days. Absolutely promise – because, at the same time, I want to deal with arguments by our much-loved regularTory Troll Chris73 and Bloggers like Farrar and Whaleoil that Labour and Left support was equally over-stated (therefore cancelling out any disadvantage to the Nats) and that the Tories’ dive at the 2011 Election (relative to their polling throughout the previous year) was all down to the Tea-Cup saga.
They’re wrong on both counts. But It’ll take more time than I’ve got at the moment to set-out the figures.
Much appreciated, swordfish.
I’ve replied to you, CV – but seems to be in moderation.
[lprent: avoid the word “troll”. It was being overused. ]
Thought it might do swordfish’s offerings more justice if his second post was part of his initial thread?
swordfish 7
29 May 2014 at 9:25 am
Here’s a few stats to highlight the degree to which support for both National and the Right Bloc was consistently over-stated (month after month) in the run-up to the last 2 elections:
National Monthly Poll Averages 2011
( To read these stats, the Nats averaged 52% in the polls of January 2011 and that was 5 percentage points higher than the proportion they in fact received at the subsequent election )
Jan 52% (+5), Feb 52% (+5), March 52% (+5), April 54% (+7), May 52% (+5), June 53% (+6), July 53% (+6), August 54% (+7), Sept 55% (+8), Oct 54% (+7), Early Nov 52% (+5), Late Nov 51% (+4), 2011 Election: 47%
Nat Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 49% (+4), Feb 52% (+7), March 50% (+5), April 51% (+6), May 52% (+7), June 54% (+9), July 51% (+6), August 49% (+4), Sept 49% (+4), Early/Mid Oct 48% (+3), Late Oct/Early Nov 46% (+1), 2008 Election: 45%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2011
Jan 56% (+3), Feb 55% (+2), March 55% (+2), April 58% (+5), May 56% (+3), June 58% (+5), July 57% (+4), August 57% (+4), Sept 59% (+6), Oct 57% (+4), Early Nov 56% (+3), Late Nov 55% (+2), 2011 Election: 53%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 52% (=), Feb 56% (+4), March 54% (+2), April 55% (+3), May 56% (+4), June 58% (+6), July 55% (+3), August 54% (+2), Sept 54% (+2), Early/Mid Oct 53% (+1), Late Oct/Early Nov 52% (=), 2008 Election: 52%
In January this year, National were averaging 7 points below their 2011 Jan average, in February 3 below, in March 6 below, in April 8 below and in May 3 below. The Right Bloc in January 2014 were averaging 7 below their 2011 January average, 2 below in Feb, 5 below in March, 9 below in April and 4 below in May.
The gaps are even greater if you compare the same point in the electoral cycle (4 months out, 6 months out, 8 months out etc – given that the elections of 08 and 11 took place in Nov rather than Sept – so comparing, for example, the May 2014 stats with the July 08 and 11 stats).
Brilliant Sword. And all these polls are before the campaign.
Cunliffe smart, Key looking tired. There will be no mistakes like not putting the leader on the billboards this time.
And the Left will have the IMP as a coalition partner. 33+11+5 or 33+12+4 seals the deal.
Here is an opportunity to vent your anger at Nationals # 2 snake oil salesman. The loud hailer battery will be fully charged for those that have a decent rant ready to rip.
Let the cabinet club present know that a recent poll showed over 60% of of Kiwi’s agree that they think that the National Party’s political donation structure is cronie capitalism!
Steve Joyce is addressing invited guests at 12:30 Friday May 30th 2014
at the ASB area of the Kensington Park Stadium.
If you have some issues you would like to draw to his attention this is an opportunity
to bring a banner, placard, leaflets to politely inform his luncheon guests of your misgivings of National Party Policies.
These may include their policies toward:
GMOs,
treaty issues, the continuing theft of Maori land
toxic mining,
water quality,
RMA reforms,
preventing local government provide rules to protect us and our environment issues.
And any other issue that gets on your goat.
from predatory investors,
TPPA,
charter schools, publicly funded ‘schools for profit’ with little or no oversight,
climate change denial and lack of response to protect dirty industry,
These are only suggestions I am sure there are many others.
Please Note: To those activists that have managed to infiltrate this political donations junket you are advised not to indulge in the feast on offer.
That is if you don’t want to risk the unpleasant experience of the sudden onset of explosive diarrhea. Just remember Stephen Joyce will be spraying enough verbal diarrhea that in itself is enough to make you vomit. So my advice is don’t subject yourself to a double dose!
Notice that Joyce seldom looks directly at those to whom he is speaking. Modestly eyes downcast. How sweet and demure. But the other day during QT as soon as Joyce began one of his long tedious answers Brownlie sitting beside him struggled and struggled to suppress a yawn. And failed!
Ha ha Gerry probably had too many pork pies for lunch and needed a nanny nap, mind you he has heard the ‘same old Joyce snake oil’ day in, day out. I loved Joyce’s interview on the Nation the other week where he was quite hysterical attacking Labour’s new monetary policy.
The jealousy of envy was very evident.
He fell asleep today – briefly. Then one eye opened and that was followed by the other…
fascinating.
What a disgrace to the hard working wood work teachers out there. Gerry being a former of that profession. If you and I openly fell asleep on the job we would rightfully expect a strum up, to think the tax payer is paying for lard arse Gerry to nod off. At least I’m being productive for the taxpayer lol.
Morning Report (give them a high-five) did a short piece on Maya Angelou USA poet, a black woman with verve and style and experiences that have destroyed others. She put it together and made a mountain. And she came down from it to write poetry and become an academic and many other things. I couldn’t see an audio link but here is youtube.
Here is one for women and men who appreciate them.
@ warbler..i found this earlier this morn..
http://www.theguardian.com/books/gallery/2014/may/28/maya-angelou-a-life-in-pictures
Thanks phil. I know nussing. How can I have never heard of this woman or seen her work before I ask myself. So more is better, ta.
here ya go warbler..
..my maya angelou archives go back to 2008..
..and there is some good stuff in there..
http://whoar.co.nz/?s=maya+angelou
I read “I know why the caged bird sings” many many years ago and it was a watershed moment. her voice is fabulous, so hearing her read her own works is a fullsome experience.
Here’s a few stats to highlight the degree to which support for both National and the Right Bloc was consistently over-stated (month after month) in the run-up to the last 2 elections:
National Monthly Poll Averages 2011
( To read these stats, the Nats averaged 52% in the polls of January 2011 and that was 5 percentage points higher than the proportion they in fact received at the subsequent election )
Jan 52% (+5), Feb 52% (+5), March 52% (+5), April 54% (+7), May 52% (+5), June 53% (+6), July 53% (+6), August 54% (+7), Sept 55% (+8), Oct 54% (+7), Early Nov 52% (+5), Late Nov 51% (+4), 2011 Election: 47%
Nat Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 49% (+4), Feb 52% (+7), March 50% (+5), April 51% (+6), May 52% (+7), June 54% (+9), July 51% (+6), August 49% (+4), Sept 49% (+4), Early/Mid Oct 48% (+3), Late Oct/Early Nov 46% (+1), 2008 Election: 45%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2011
Jan 56% (+3), Feb 55% (+2), March 55% (+2), April 58% (+5), May 56% (+3), June 58% (+5), July 57% (+4), August 57% (+4), Sept 59% (+6), Oct 57% (+4), Early Nov 56% (+3), Late Nov 55% (+2), 2011 Election: 53%
Right Bloc Monthly Poll Averages 2008
Jan 52% (=), Feb 56% (+4), March 54% (+2), April 55% (+3), May 56% (+4), June 58% (+6), July 55% (+3), August 54% (+2), Sept 54% (+2), Early/Mid Oct 53% (+1), Late Oct/Early Nov 52% (=), 2008 Election: 52%
In January this year, National were averaging 7 points below their 2011 Jan average, in February 3 below, in March 6 below, in April 8 below and in May 3 below. The Right Bloc in January 2014 were averaging 7 below their 2011 January average, 2 below in Feb, 5 below in March, 9 below in April and 4 below in May.
The gaps are even greater if you compare the same point in the electoral cycle (4 months out, 6 months out, 8 months out etc – given that the elections of 08 and 11 took place in Nov rather than Sept – so comparing, for example, the May 2014 stats with the July 08 and 11 stats).
Gerry Brownlee, Controller of Christchurch. Done the expected poor job for the people in general, (expected by me and damn I am right, when it would be better to be wrong and eat humble pie.) Have some specific people received good outcomes? A small number. But you would never know the extent of his failure when listening to him.
He is an incredible politician, with the smooth delivery of half-truths, lies and promises that NACT specialises in. Not credible. I dub Brownlee The Incredible Hulk. No doubt this is not an original idea.
At best Brownlie is trying to prevent panic.
At worst he is trying to cover over the huge cracks.
We should have a week where all politicians cannot open their mouths unless what they are about to say can be supported by fact.
Great idea.
the silence would be heavenly.
Gerry would still come across as an Incredible Sulk anyway.
There is another word that rhymes with that but I am not bringing physical appearance into the debate. Poor attitudinal characteristics relevant for statesmanship are another matter and need to be pointed out.
cartman writ large…
(i do like ‘the incredible sulk’ tho’..)
‘don’t make me angsty, you wouldn’t like me when i’m angsty’
“An Anglican pastor has quit the church and is taking his congregation with him after the governing body moved ahead with plans to bless same-sex relationships.”
Wonder if a follow-up will show whether the congregation did follow him in significant numbers? Times are a-changing Vicar. Keep up lad.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11263531
the slimy little turd gluon espiner mentioned left wing about fifity times this morning on the right wing radio show with his other sad little righty mate. if he does it again I think I am going to upchuck about fifty weetbix!
“..How Psychedelics Are Saving Lives:
Numerous studies show these substances are non-neurotoxic – non-addictive –
and are having profound effects curing some of the most stubborn mental health disorders –
by helping people purge bottled up trauma..”
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article38626.htm
Lolz Phillip, i can attest to a certain extent to the non-addictive nature of psychedelic substances, there’s a world of pain tho in the ”expression” of bottled up trauma, especially if expressed in a public place,
Such pain is unfortunately not necessarily confined to those who are with the help of pyschedelic’s doing the ”expressing” it tends to also extend to the ”audience”…
during ‘the acid days’ i lived in a block of four terrace houses in darlinghurst.. that was a squat..
..and darlinghurst was inner-city slum then..so lots of alkies..
..and there was this other member of the squat..who was an awol airforce guy..
..and he had dropped a trip and walked away from the airforce..and had become an acid-missionary..
..and he took it upon himself to ‘cure’ the local alkies.
..(having been an alkie himself while in the airforce..).
..by giving them trips..
..so you’d come home to find smelly alkies cluttering the place up…
..grinning manically at you..
..(there was nil follow-up..so i dunno if it worked for them..
..but since then it has been proven to help many alkies..
..so i live in hope..)
The next time someone drops a psychedelic and thinks they can fly, please do yourself a favour and take off from the ground and not the top of a multi storey car park.
“The knack of flying is learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.” – Douglas Adams
he must have been dreaming…this is possible in the dream world where one can defy gravity and survive..ie wake up…also there is a theory that everyday things can be solved in the dream world …but how to remember ?
Lolz, like i, the US military knows quite a bit about the use of pyschedelics but will never tell, like for instance the ability for those subjected to X amounts of the substance over X period of time to have an ability to look straight through walls, even those constructed of concrete, and tell what a person on the other side of it is wearing…
you get a special retro-drug-cliche award for that one..allen..
Didn’t say it was an original, but I’ll take the award, just as long as I don’t have to share it like lorde.
The Peter Lyons article below from the Herald today is excellent.
It is probably misleading in one aspect where he quotes wage growth at 14% and inflation at 10% during the term of this government. Though these figures may well be right but from various media reports I have read it would seem the bulk of the pay rises have gone to the better off leaving the bottom 50% with wages not keeping up with inflation. (I don’t have stats but would love to see some).
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11263462
Peter Lyons is very good; underrated. He relates economics to everyday life and to other themes in a way few can. Reminds me of Bruce Jesson.
This is another example: http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/298191/corporate-obfuscation-cannot-hide-truth
Column in the odt a few weeks back on how the inhumanity and downright unreasonableness of redundancy processes are flannelled in management speak to reduce people to disposable units.
+1 Ergo
Radionz item on putting on weight – strange that it has happened in last 30 years. There is a graphic on their site with two parents both overblown. It looks as if they are out doing what the government wants them to do – consumer spending.
The item says that NZ men have put on weight the fastest in their measurements – from OECD. Yeah we win again.
We could come up with pub games where men rush their stomachs at each other and see how far they can bounce the other outside a circle. That would make a change from tossing dwarfs.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/245744/obesity-among-nz-men-grows-fastest-in-world
And this is how the message ran, good afternoon 2011 Green party voters, the InternetMana alliance thanks you for the big ups, but, if you voted Green in 2011 it is best to stick with voting Green again in 2014,
There are ”other” rich sources of sourcing votes that the InternetMana alliance are excellently positioned to take full advantage of, including:
The fast failing Maori Party, party and electorate vote,
The tactical voters who did not vote Green last time round,
The missing million, the vast bulk of whom are registered but did not vote in 2011…
From Martyn Bradbury
“Why making the election a Public Holiday would lift voting numbers.
…The fact we are one of the few democracies that can change power minus violence and intimidation should be a source of celebration and deep pride……I think that standing in line with your fellow citizens to vote is a necessary part of the engagement process and online voting doesn’t create that. Selfies proclaiming that people have voted will be a great means of building awareness, but it can’t replace the real social element of sharing the same physical space peacefully with people who have the opposite agenda that you do.
Apart from the ease with which online voting can be hacked, the physical space sharing social interaction is a crucial democratic engagement.
I think the reason our election should also be a public holiday is based on that shared social experience.
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/29/why-making-the-election-a-public-holiday-would-lift-voting-numbers/
What “physical space sharing social interaction” are you talking about?
The one you don’t get while online voting and receiving an LED tan in front of your computer screen home alone.
Don’t get one going to a voting booth either.
On the same subject, voting that is of the compulsory type, there appears to be a conference going on today in Wellington where the discussion has turned to that very topic, compulsory voting,
A professor, visiting i think from Ireland has said that if we want to have more of those able to participating then we should at least try compulsory voting,
Judith Collins Pfft, quoted on the same subject by RadioNZ National said that Compulsory Voting would ”be less democratic”,(that begs the question that compulsory enrollment to vote must really kneecap the democratic process right),
Bomber might be on to something there with the holiday idea, couple a day off with a compulsion to vote as the reward and we might get a far better turnout than the present…
A public holiday, or half a working days holiday to anyone working on the day
Nah CV, why should those who are forced to work holidays be punished, a day in lieu would fix that and they could take their holiday on a day that the whole capitalist world wouldn’t collapse because of their absence,(being also allowed to cast a special vote as well would help)…
Flavell now in the Parliament is trying to get the Maori Party votes reversed and the Bill moved to a second reading,
There is no objection and Jerry Brownlee has risen to grovel about Nationals fraudulent use of the Maori Party votes…
but English will exercise veto anyway?
Yeah Tracey, to a certain extent what’s occurring is a ”beltway game” but for us political junkies and those interested enough to be taking even a minor interest what has occurred is quite enlightening,
Take Sharples for instance, Tory Lapdog or Rangatira???, it appears from the unfolding story that all it takes for Sharples to shed any vestiges of Mana and Rangatiratanga that He may or may not have previously possessed is for a couple of the Massah Bosses in the form of Tory MP’s/Minsters to bail Him up in a Parliamentary corridor and put the hard word on Him,
The last vestiges of the Maori Party voting base should take note,
National of course are desperate to delay this Bill until the House rises for the election, there’s miles of Bad Bad publicity inherent in English having to use His veto to trash the extra paid parental leave that the Bill contains,
National largely ”got away with” failing to impose its version of ”resource heaven” when it found that it couldn’t force through Legislation to impose its desired changes, simply because the toothless media hardly gave the situation a mention,
Lolz, Grant Robertson, in a loaded question posed to Gerry Brownlee in the House this afternoon enquired whether National intended to pass some more employment Legislation befor the House rises, methinks Grant believes National will not have the numbers to pass the intended Legislation either, the subtleties of this which seemed to fly straight over Brownlees head,
What such ”beltway games” expose where National hasn’t the numbers to pass its Legislative agenda into Law is simply a Government that is a lame-duck…
You dont think sharples was trying to correct the problem and find out why national had cast the votes against?
It’s one possibility Tracey, but, from what’s i can gather, after the ”words” were had last night in the corridor, Sharples done a runner,
He could have walked into the Chamber and simply made the Maori Party position plain by yelling ”Point of Order Mr Speaker”…
Fair point. I dont understand why, if sharples was in the chamber, he didnt have flavell’s proxy?
i didn’t see the parliament in session last night Tracey, aging from what i can gather Sharples wasn’t in the chamber for the vote, the fact that the Tory MP’s managed to bail Him up in the corridor would suggest tho that He wasn’t far away,
From one angled perception it could be suggested that Sharples deliberately let what occurred occur but there is not the slightest shred of evidence to suggest this, so i definitely wont be suggesting that Lol,
Obviously something lead the desperate National Government to believe it could kill Maroney’s Bill by voting the Maori Party proxies the wrong way, what it was we may never know, but, don’t believe for a moment that things within the Maori Party are all sweetness and light…
As an afterthought Tracey, Flavell should have stood in the Parliament today and waved the Maori Party/National Party coalition in the air and invited them to instruct the speaker to amend last nights vote,
He obviously has no eye for the theatrical and even less idea of the growing elephant in the room in the form of Annette Sykes growing support back home in the Waiariki electorate,
Flavell in effect begging the Speaker to alter what was something of National’s making simply makes Him look weak…
Can anyone clarify the following for me?
Since 2012, if an employee agrees, for a new position, the employer can offer a package and make its contribution inclusive of the gross salary if the employee agrees and joins kiwisaver?
If yes, for many lower skilled folks they are effectively agreeing to pay their kiwisaver contrib and the employers?
My advice make sure your a member of a Union, especially if your a low paid worker, do it on the down low if your afraid of that dirty 90 day trial law. Go to the CTU website for the right advice.
No union option. No 90 day caluse.
It seems the nacts have eroded this part of employment law, to save employers money and dissuade people from kiwisaver.
Yes.
Yes, many employees will be lumping the employer share of kiwisaver.
Note that this does not apply to those on minimum wage, because minimum means minimum. For people earning the minimum, if they choose to join KS, their employer must pay the employer contribution in addition to their wage.
Of course @ minimum wage. Thanks lanth. So the nats halved the govt incentive and kind of screwe a heap of others…
I think it is illegal. I’m pretty sure this has been tested in the courts. It is illegal for employers to demand that employees pay both contributions.
Currently it is legal the nats changed the law making it permissible. Which a number of ratbag employers did. The court case taken by a union in the aged care sector I think argued that for those on or close to minimum wage were in reality been paid less than the legal minimum happily they were successful. On the downside the employer s then counted this as a ‘payrise’ meaning getting an award the next year is much harder.
so no news yet about the radical restructuring of the winz acts to incorporate welfare reform by stealth.
wake up yo!
Do you have some info? I understood they were still writing the new legislation and had not released any details yet, so there is nothing to discuss but the knowledge they are writing the new legislation.
& that is a very short and very depressing conversation 🙂
john kerry telling edward snowden to go back to the usa… The drones not located him yet???
New minimum ‘pay rate award’. A week can cover a fortnight. So you ‘work’ 20 hours one week, then 60 hours the next, and get paid 40 hours for both.
Maybe an employer can get you to work 120 hours one week, then drip-feed you your pay over the next couple of weeks. How soon before this flows on to the rest of the economy?
Imagine some of the more onerous and dangerous jobs being treated like this? Sooner or later something would have to give, and perhaps someone might be killed? Who then would be at fault? The employer, the employee, or the Government?
Imagine also the disruption to families.
On a separate note, Nick Smith has cancelled the Fiordland Monorail. Lets see what happens after the election!
farrar and joe bennett talking absolute lying-shite about harre/int/mana..on panel..
..(even mora seems embarrassed by the relentless negativity..)
..i wonder if farrar was long-scheduled for today..?
..or if he was rushed in at the last minute..?
..and i never realised what a braying ignorant fucken fool bennet is..
i would suggest tho Phillip, that anyone listening to that pile of defecation from the evil baby look-a-like is either firmly in the fuck-you-Farrer camp or highly unlikely to vote InternetMana anyway,
I keep saying this to the ‘wing-nuts’, as far as the InternetMana alliance goes, its a science fiction double feature, the ‘Wing-nuts’ attempts at disparagement are far far to late, Doctor X has already built the creature…
the big lie they all told was that the alliance-lite deal dissolves six weeks after the election..
..this is total bullshit..
..there is a scheduled meeting six weeks after the election to work out how best to work together in parliament..
..not an automatic dissolution..
..(i am surprised mora didn’t call them out on that clear error of fact..didn’t he know..?..)
..an error repeated/laughed at multiple times/ways..
..and the more i think about it..the more i want to know if farrar was actually scheduled for today..
..or if he was rushed in to spin..
..and he is doing a brilliant effort at filling up all the time with his words..controlling the message..
..joe bennet got about 20% of the allocated time..
..(and i agree the creature is already built..
..but you still have to be vigilant..
..to call out the lies..)
Another laugh out loud coincidence???, the movie moguls from five of the Hollywood big studios had their legal eagles in the High Court at Auckland today arguing the toss trying to stop Dotcom getting His seized assets back,
i had the thought again, way too late children, Dotcom has already cashed up the InternetMana alliance so even if they could extract Him from the country befor the election, Slippery the Prime Minister will still be getting the Dotcom gift that just doesn’t stop giving, in Slippery’s case brain damage…
laila harre is doing an excellent interview with mary wilson…
..just excellent..
What chance Peter Dunne and Colin Craig look to stitch up something similar to Internet Mana?
Would make sense Dunne’s seat plus Colin’s 3%
Conservative Future anyone?
And that’s what’s lurking at the bottom of Pandora’s box now the $3m man and Hone have opened it.
Say goodbye to that coveted 3 seat gain as you blow kisses to the moral high ground.
Gower has gone off the deep end…
http://www.3news.co.nz/Opinion-Hone-and-Dotcoms-grubby-deal/tabid/1382/articleID/346334/Default.aspx
Biased Bile from Paddy Gower! Hypocrite he is! Where was his anger for Banks or Hyde or Pete?
Did you look at the comments? Not a lot of people seem to agree with him.
I’ve noticed that with the tv3 news website in general. Fairly left leaning commentary in the majority has been my impression.
Not like Stuff which is very much the opposite.
Just did and wow! Paddy lost it in his ‘opinion piece’ – and those comments really lay into him. Some of them excellent analysis – not in his favour. Is the revolution about to happen?
PS – according to Paddy’s twitter feed, he went on leave last night;; long weekend in his home town, New Plymouth ? And suddenly this ‘contribution’.
lol, Poor wee Gower sounds like he is having a wee …er Paddy…
My response to Paddy’s hyperventilating:
Where was your passion when the National government ignored changing the MMP rules when they had a chance? Why didn’t they do that? This couldn’t have occurred if they had taken on board the recommendations.
Oh wait! I believe the answer is contained in his article ‘Never, ever was it envisaged they would be used as a back-door entry for a German millionaire to get his proxy into Parliament.‘
…wow! and that sounds like a pretty racist comment, there Paddy – what do you mean by that? – that it is o.k for NZ millionaires to rort the system? – is it just that you don’t want German born ones to do the rorting? Or is it more a thing about what political persuasion is involved when rorting of the system occurs?
Pretty easy fix to this one. The next government who gets in needs to tighten the MMP rules. Political parties, which of you are going to do that? [Did Labour already mention they would redress that? (not sure)]
Inclusive Capitalism Initiative is Trojan Horse to quell coming global revolt
Which is, of course, what needs to happen.
OPENING SPEECH IN THE FIRST READING DEBATE OF THE FEED THE KIDS BILL
Hone Harawira – MANA Leader and Te Tai Tokerau Member of Parliament
Wednesday 28 May 2014
Tēnā koe Mr Speaker
Mr Speaker, I move that the Education (Breakfast and Lunch Programmes in Schools) Amendment Bill be now read a first time.
I nominate the Māori Affairs Committee to consider the bill.
Mr Speaker, Nelson Mandela once said that “there can be no keener revelation of a society’s soul than the way in which it treats its children” and if I could add a comment, it would be “and blaming those too vulnerable to care for themselves and their children, speaks more about our selfishness than it does about the hopelessness of poverty.”
Mr Speaker, back in April last year I was part of a big MANA Feed the Kids gig where we fed more than 1,500 kids up in Otara. They had heaps of fun and when they left they all took a lunch away, happily chanting “Feed the Kids”, and I thought to myself – these kids get it, their whanau get it, their teachers get it, and I sincerely hope enough of us get it too, because Treasury itself has told us there are now 285,000 kids living in poverty in Aotearoa, 100,000 of whom go to school hungry every day.
Yes, it’s nice to know that KidsCan feeds some 10,000 of them most days and that the KickStart programme feeds about 12,000 a day, but the reality is that even with government’s announcement in last year’s Budget, nearly 80,000 children are still going to school hungry in Aotearoa, every single day.
And yes, schools around the country have started their own breakfast clubs with support from teachers, students, parents, local businesses and the wider community – but they tell us that it takes a lot of hard work, and a lot of goodwill to keep it going, and that having secure funding would be a godsend.
And the really embarrassing thing is that nearly every country in the OECD, apart from us, already runs programmes to feed kids at school.
Some, like Finland and Sweden provide fully state-funded meals to every school student as part of a wider framework of child wellbeing – a commitment that sees them regularly top the international surveys in child health and educational achievement.
Some provide free meals to kids with parents on low incomes and others provide free meals to schools in areas of high deprivation, but while the approaches differ, they all share the same view – backed up by the same kind of research and information from teachers, doctors, nurses and policy analysts, that is available to us here – that kids need a good feed every day if they are to develop into healthy, and well educated adults.
Mr Speaker, New Zealand really needs to join the rest of the enlightened world and make a commitment to feeding our kids, starting with those in greatest need, to help them to grow well and learn well.
Groups like the Child Poverty Action Group have long advocated for government-funded food in schools programmes as a simple and cheap step to reducing poverty.
The report of the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group on Solutions to Child Poverty, released a year and a half ago now, did not recommend throwing in a few dollars only if the corporates gave some as this government has proposed – no – they recommended that “government should develop and implement a government-funded food in schools programme” and that “government has a responsibility to provide leadership and resources, to assist schools through a national strategy for food in Early Childhood Centres and schools in low decile neighbourhoods.”
Mr Speaker – I have been humbled by the positive responses to MANA’s Feed the Kids Bill from a whole host of child, family, health, education, and faith organisations all around the country, who helped raise awareness about just how many of our kids are going to school hungry in Aotearoa, and what we should be doing about it.
They have worked hard to remind us all that the crisis of child hunger and its devastating effects on brain development, health and learning means we need to urgently focus on feeding the kids rather than blaming the parents; that poverty has doubled in the last 25 years and children are its greatest victim; and that poverty won’t go away without big changes in employment, wages, housing and support for families in need.
Mr Speaker – things have changed a lot from when everyone was scoffing at MANA for even talking about Feeding the Kids during Election 2011, to a TV poll last year that showed 70% of Kiwis support a government-funded food in schools programme; and to food in schools being the only policy issue to make the top 10 news stories in 2013.
And much of that awareness has come about as a result of the excellent work and commitment of the Community Coalition for Food in Schools – which now has 30 members – and in particular, the efforts of Deborah Morris-Travers, former CEO of Every Child Counts and now Advocacy Manager for UNICEF NZ.
Mr Speaker, the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group said that child poverty doesn’t just impact on children and their families – it costs all of us, a lot. In fact, it’s estimated that child poverty costs New Zealanders $6-8 billion a year – in health, justice system costs, and in lost productivity and a lower tax take – and yet we continue to be one of the worst performers in the OECD on child wellbeing.
Our rates of preventable diseases like rheumatic fever are high, we have lower educational achievement than in other developed countries, and yet we’ll happily spend nearly $1.5 billion a year on prisons to feed one of the highest incarceration rates in the world.
Unemployment is the highest it’s been for nearly 15 years, nearly half of all young Māori and PI are without work and are not in education or training, and the other half are getting ready to go to Aussie.
Feeding the Kids won’t solve all these problems – but it is real, it is affordable, it is something we can do right now, and we know that it will help our kids grow up to be better, healthier contributors to society.
We’ve costed the Bill to allow for a co-ordinator in each school to oversee the provision of breakfast and lunch in all decile 1-2 schools in Aotearoa; feeding more than 100,000 kids in our poorest communities; and using existing programmes like KidsCan and KickStart or working through other local initiatives.
With very few exceptions schools have supported the Feed the Kids kaupapa because they know they’ll get more bang for their educational buck – kids will turn up to school on time, they’ll be settled and not disruptive, and they’ll be ready to learn.
And while I’m at it I’d also like to thank all the secondary and tertiary students who backed this bill, because when young people say that hunger is their number one priority, and that food in schools is the best solution to it, then that says it all.
Mr Speaker – I know the bill isn’t perfect; I hear the korero about feeding the kids being a parent’s responsibility, but the truth is that a lot of people have been so poor, for so long, that they struggle to make the right choices and often end up making the wrong ones. And all the while our kids go hungry …
And I’ve heard a lot about increasing employment opportunities, and upgrading housing, and improving access to health and developing better educational pathways … and all of that is necessary and good, but it takes a long time to happen. And all the while our kids go hungry …
And every other proposal I’ve heard from the Child Poverty Action Group, the Children’s Commissioner, health promotion agencies and advisory groups all the way up to the World Health Organisation’s Report on Child Health, makes a lot of sense to me.
But all I want to do with this bill is make sure that as we work through all these other critical and important initiatives, our kids are getting fed.
Mr Speaker – I welcome the calls to extend the Bill to include the Kohanga and ECE sector and decile 3-4 schools, and to allow those involved in school and community gardens to make a contribution to this discussion too, because this is an exercise that will require the efforts of the whole community, and I urge the House to vote this bill through at first reading so that the Maori Affairs select committee can call for submissions from those who know best, and those who care most, in order that we can develop a robust food-in-schools programme that enhances the well-being of our children, and enhances the future prospects of our society.
All that stands between this bill going to its second reading, where it will receive proper debate and the full consideration, of parliament is the single vote of that scum Peter Dunne.
Just for this filthy act, every effort needs to be made, to ensure that Peter Dunne should not be returned to parliament as being morally and intellectually unfit for high office.