parts per million

Written By: - Date published: 11:55 am, June 7th, 2022 - 10 comments
Categories: climate change - Tags: , , ,

You can check the ppm of atmospheric CO2 for when you were born here (a measure of climate change).

Sidebar for the current political news,

321 ppm

350ppm is a ballpark of safety.

The beauty of this chart is that it cuts through the equivocating that the mainstream is doing at the governmental level. The IPCC and governments around the world (including New Zealand) are working towards holding the planet at 1.5C rise above pre-industrial levels. Our targets give us a % change of that (50%?), which means there’s a fair chance we will continue on to 2C. That’s catastrophic for nature and humans. Even 1.5C is risky, full of uncertainties and our inability to predict tipping points and things running away on us.

The article the chart is from (2017),

Let me now turn to the safe concentration pathway. This embraces the original UNFCCC objective by lowering the CO2 concentration so as to minimize its harmful impacts on Earth systems. On the optimistic assumption that 350 ppm is safe, the curve declines from 410 ppm to 350 ppm by 2050. The resulting environmental damage, represented by area 1, is extensive and may still trigger tipping points and points of no return, but it provides our species with at least a chance for survival.

The green pathway is the powerdown. This is us learning to live within our limits and fast. Not overnight, but it’s a shift away from green BAU that sees everyone with an EV and instead gives everyone enough food and a decent standard of living. It’s the option we don’t yet know is on the table, and it’s the one that has hope and possibility, honour and redemption.

We can blame the Royals for where we are, nice easy targets, and miss the point of the meme. We can blame the elite, but short of a strategy to get them to change, that leaves us powerless. We can blame Labour or the Greens, but here’s the rub: political parties are beholden to voters,

I don’t see it as selfishness so much as people not seeing a way out. Yet. The degree to which we can both imagine a future of living within our limits and how to get there, is the degree to which we will act. But no-one is coming to save us, the politicians will follow the voters, and the voters are all of us. This doesn’t mean we are to blame, it means we hold the power to effect change, by voting, and by creating the pathways so that everyone else can see how to change too.

The ppm royal meme is a chef’s kiss of a tweet, potent and multi-layered. One of the most important aspects is this: by the time Prince Louis is old enough to vote, it will be too late. We have the chance to save everything, in our hands, right now. What will we do with that?

If you’re aware of how bad things are and want to experience pathways through, try Rob Hopkins‘ work (books and podcast) on what the path to a good future looks like.

10 comments on “parts per million ”

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  1. PsyclingLeft.Always 1
    7 June 2022 at 1:43 pm

    Hi Weka,

    I am convinced that for the majority its just :

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somebody_else%27s_problem

    I have talked to some Actual Scientists (I know some, very good to talk to : ) and…they are very worried about the situation.

    To the level, that some are speaking up…more and more. From my conversations…there is feeling that there is a fine line between alerting about the crucial nature of…and causing either panic..or a Meh (blase) reaction. Both bad….

    I do see James Renwick on TV News, Jim Salinger in the ODT (Both good speakers) , Flights over NZ Glaciers showing ice retreat ,and of course recently the NZ sea level rise/land sinking on TV News

    About that project

    https://www.searise.nz/

    I certainly feel that NZ Scientists are doing their best to get the message out.

    Oh this group too. You might have heard of ?

    http://wiseresponse.org.nz/supporters/

    https://www.facebook.com/wiseresponse/

  2. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 2
    8 June 2022 at 10:48 am

    Judging by the response to this post:

    We are sleep-walking to extinction!

    • weka 2.1
      8 June 2022 at 10:55 am

      it's certainly an interesting dynamic on TS atm regarding climate posts.

    • Roy cartland 2.2
      8 June 2022 at 2:26 pm

      I'd say it's even weirder; we're wake-walking, knowing and seeing it happen but still not motivated enough as a group to fix it (fast enough).

      Gotta admit, I'm somewhat like that; I'd make the maximum effort towards cc, but not just to save a few billionaires' yachts and rockets while they continue to fuck it up.

      • weka 2.2.1
        8 June 2022 at 4:14 pm

        not quite sure what to make of that. If we are to have any chance of getting this right, we cannot hold back out of resentment of rich people.

        • roy cartland 2.2.1.1
          8 June 2022 at 7:00 pm

          You're right of course.

          I guess I was being a bit of a grump, and a bit obscure. I suppose I meant I'm ready to make the fullest commitment, but I can't bring myself to quit my job and sacrifice my family to do it, if I'm the only one. Drop in the bucket, while the neighbour contributes nothing and offsets all my efforts. Even if I was, what about the next person along?

          If there was, say, a full-scale, nationwide govt-supported effort to rewild, decarbonise, restore, without fear of becoming homeless and indebted, it would be much easier for all to get on board.

          • weka 2.2.1.1.1
            8 June 2022 at 7:40 pm

            someone has to go first. A lot of someones. We can't wait for the govt, they will get on board as more voters do.

            I don't know what you do for a job, so I'm not sure what the quitting job and sacrificing family means. But imo we will have to give up a lot, more the longer we leave it. At the moment we have a lot of choices.

            • roy cartland 2.2.1.1.1.1
              8 June 2022 at 9:29 pm

              +100

              That's why I think the positive posts you've been putting up have such value; they remind me (and I suspect others) that there are like-minded people actually doing things, and that the drops in the bucket actually add up, hence are worth doing; also, they pull the mind back off that precipice of despondency that is so easy to fall down.

              The things holding me back from doing any more are massive amounts of mortgage debt; which I like to think once is out of the way, THEN I can get on with sAvInG tHe WoRlD. That's why I agree with the Greens' three-legged policy, as you've got to have social justice alongside environmental. No point in most of us weighed down with debt while billionaires waste the planet.

  3. pat 3
    8 June 2022 at 7:21 pm

    I suspect it is indeed selfishness…ask what people are prepared to forgo in order to achieve 2degC (above pre industrial) and the list will be short and largely ineffective…..and thats understandable when it also requires internationally concerted action to have any chance of success in a fractured world.

    • weka 3.1
      8 June 2022 at 7:43 pm

      depends how you ask I guess. Most people don't have the skillset to see how things can work out and we are bombarded with negatives all the time rather than proactive pathways.