With the usual inane commentary from our aussie cousins, we get the final Roy Morgan poll.
It shows Labour + Greens at 60 seats and with choice of partners to take them over 60 seats.
It shows National at 50 seats and requiring NZ First + the Maori Party and Nationals servile parties to get them over 60 seats. And NZ First is on 6%.
The link is here. It is unfortunately overloaded at this time.
Final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Labour/Greens (60 seats) with Maori Party support favoured to win knife-edge election over National/NZ First/Act NZ (58 seats).
In September support for a potential Labour/Greens coalition has increased to 48.5% (up 7% from mid-August 2017) now well ahead of incumbent National on 40% (down 2.5%).
National remains (just) the most popular party with support of 40%, however this is a large drop of 7% since the 2014 Election which looks set to cost the party a chance of leading a new Government after next week’s election.
Labour’s support has surged on the back of new Leader Jacinda Ardern to 39.5% – up 14.4% since the 2014 Election, and up 7% since mid-August just after Ardern became Leader.
Greens support of 9% is down 1.7% since the Election, but unchanged on a month ago, just after former Leader Metiria Turei resigned her job in late July.
The surge in support for Labour has come at the expense of New Zealand First with support down 2.7% from the election to 6% and now just above the 5% threshold for winning list seats. Support for New Zealand First has plunged by 5.5% from last month.
Overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 6.8% from the election to 42.5% with support for National’s coalition partners virtually unchanged: Maori Party on 2% (up 0.7%), Act NZ on 0.5% (down 0.2%) and United Future on 0% (down 0.2%) with long-time party leader Peter Dunne not recontesting his seat at this year’s election.
Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was 3% led by new party The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) unchanged on 2% with the Conservatives on 0.5% – down a significant 3.5% since the 2014 New Zealand Election.
It means that National has successfully had a go at NZ First support with niche issues like a hypothetical possible water tax whilst allowing Labour + Greens to get a winning position in the crucial urban populations. After all neither Labour or the Greens have an electoral stake in marginal electoral rural issues when urban populations have been paying for far higher water and water treatment taxes for decades.
Expect the dirty politics flailing of the dead or dying National party for the next week while they try to retarget. But National looks like they are up shit creek with some morons in charge.
I will be amused by the spin tomorrow.