Stats NZ have reasonable population statistics - if you mean how many people will turn 18 in time to vote at the next general election, about 195,000 going by Infoshare.
2017 and 2020 For detailed figures, they can be derived from various results because the specials are usually available separately.
Certainly wasn't the case this time.
I live in Christchurch East, one of the safest Labour seats in NZ so am well aware of the importance of good MPs in safe seats. Obviously there is a job to be done, so selecting a dud isn't useful to anyone. And which carpet-baggers? Nash, Wood, Allan and ...
Sounds great until bugs cause incorrect results or worse, it gets hacked. However unlikely people think that is, it only has to happen once to be awful.
Mostly we do it because the other side does it, and some of our supporters get demoralised if we don't have at least some visibility in a sea of blue.
A lot of people do quite well out of the status quo and major change is scary. Throw in fearmongering at all attempts at change once real proposals appear, and it becomes very hard.
A lot of the rest home votes are counted on the day anyway - https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023_preliminary/statistics/pdf/06_ElectionDay.pdf has a couple of results for Care Home Teams (Taken in Christchurch East/Central), so that will ...
A more cynical group would leave co-governance for TPM and then agree to it under some other branding after an election as part of coalition arrangements. Hopefully Labour aren't that cynical.
In MMP, winning electorates is secondary to winning party vote - that was one of the primary lessons from 2014.
Because after you win the election, you have to govern. Most of the previous reviews have found various ways of telling Labour that there is no point selecting candidates who are good at winning elections but wholly unsuited to being an MP.
That comparison is out a bit given the special votes are still to be counted. Obviously specials probably won't doe much to change the seats (might be +1 when all is said and done), but that vote count somewhat understates what Labour will finish with.
Maybe, but on the numbers, the only pathway to a third term Labour government was NZ First which had been ruled by NZ First and Labour, so I can see why he conceded.
I think if Labour collect those 3 seats by specials, they will also get an extra seat or two from specials. Tracy McLellan (Banks Peninsula) is also currently getting in on the list, so if she gets an electorate instead, it won't change the list ...
Agree, and also they may increase their proportion of the vote when the special votes are counted.
If Labour are winning seats on specials, it's likely that the party vote will increase proportionately as well, so it may not change much.
Most of the National ads I saw were attacking Labour, but obviously that didn't have the impact on National's vote that the ads attacking National had on Labour's vote.
Still ~570,000 special votes to be counted yet which is more than in 2020. Not that Labour are going to get close to 2020's numbers anyway, but there are still enough votes that the comparison will change a bit, particularly the percentage drop.
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/successful-candidates.html Makes it back via the Labour list currently.
I'm not a fan of opposing everything for the sake of it either, but in practice, oppositions don't oppose everything. There will still be Select Committee work to try to avert the worst outcomes, and not using all the time for speeches in Parliament ...
TOP must be getting close to wondering why they bother being separate rather than members joining other parties and working for change there.
And recounts can be requested up to 3 working days after the initial declaration, and the District Court has 3 working days after that to actually oversee the recount.
I think Luxon answered the question for himself when he is in Wellington rather than his whole family spend, but even the (daft) individualistic framing shows that at his heart, he is about individualism.
Someone tell Edwards that it's not a wake up call that the system isn't working, it's a wake up call to the major parties that their policy offerings are not sufficiently popular to get the vote out.
Very good points.
I've heard Jones rip into National on other stuff, so he doesn't always just sit there and take it.
Without changing the law, they don't really work, because CEs as employees report to the Public Service Commissioner, not Ministers.
Same in much of Christchurch although not quite to that extent.
Reminded me of 2017 where Ardern just had to not lose badly against Bill English. Anything close would be seen as a good outing, and that feels like the case here too.
The main ones use a mix of landlines and cellphone numbers and have done for some time - as you say, not many landlines left any more (I'm under 60 and have one but I think ours is the exception among our friends and families).
I tend to read on my phone/tablet and can't comment here on either.
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