Skirmish, battle, war

Written By: - Date published: 1:15 pm, November 27th, 2011 - 31 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour - Tags: , ,

I’m just back from cleaning up our election day HQ after last night’s party. With apologies to lefties who aren’t feeling too flash today, and with particular sympathies to Labour MPs who didn’t make it back, I had a good election night.

We (Dunedin North) won our skirmish.  The next MP for the electorate is Labour’s David Clark, by a solid majority.  Labour also won the Party vote in Dunedin North (not sure how many electorates that happened in).  David is a great guy, and as an MP he’s going to be one to watch (you heard it here first!).  Thanks to a brilliant campaign team – you know who you are.  Special thanks to outgoing MP Pete Hodgson, who despite the demands of his high flying political career never neglected the electorate, and left Dunedin North in great shape.  Bravo.

We (Labour) lost our battle.  Talking heads are wittering on about a historic defeat, but the right comparison is with 2002.  After one term of the popular new Labour government National plunged to 21%.  Here we are after one term of a popular new National government and Labour did much better on 27%.  Much of the lost support went to the Greens (which is personally fine with me – I want to see Labour greener!).  We’re clearly well positioned for 2014.  Well done to Phil Goff and the Labour team for a brave and effective campaign.  If Phil decides to stay on as leader he has my full support.

We (the country) won the war.  We seem almost certain to retain MMP in the referendum, and that’s great news for NZ.  It’s the best system by far, and it’s going to be problematic for the Nats looking forward.  I’m glad that National are such limited, short term thinkers, or they would have put more effort into trying to overturn MMP, which would have been a much worse result on the night than just losing an election.

It’s going to be a grim three years for the country.  And we the Left really need to work out just what we have to do to turn out voters.  But as far as the 2011 election goes, just from my point of view of course, two out of three ain’t bad.

31 comments on “Skirmish, battle, war”

  1. Colonial Viper 1

    Just looking at the numbers I am shocked that the Labour stronghold of Dunedin South appears to have party voted with National. FFS, will this not end.

    • Phil 1.1

      Democracy is a bitch isn’t it CV ? Perhaps the lunatic Curran should be reminded that there is more to being a local MP than being an ex-Union hack.

    • neoleftie 1.2

      shocked mate i am pissed off and a few tears as well.
      once again into the breech we go

    • Hannah 1.3

      No, it won’t end – especially if you keep putting an idiot like Clare Curran up as a candidate.

  2. alex 2

    Congrats on Dunedin North, but in all honesty if you had lost it you may as well have shut up shop. Very handy win for MMP.

  3. Barry 3

    It is going to be a grim 3 years.

    I am not too worried by the asset sales. Yes, they will cost the country money over the long term, but no more than the credit guarantee did, and in all likelihood Key will stick to the sales that he has promised this term.

    I am more worried about Public service cuts and wage suppression. When will they learn that cutting taxes and government services leave the poor worse off, and reduces the size of the economy and the government tax take? Low wages even more so.

    I am also worried about the ETS. At the moment there are very few price signals to reduce emissions, and subsidies to emitters will cost the country hugely over decades. There is also a big problem to come from turning trees into liabilities.

    Pity the beneficiaries! The will bear the brunt of the pain to come.

    So well done in Dunedin North. Remember that National won because people who might have voted for the left stayed at home. The focus for the next 3 years should be to find out why. How does Labour reach them? What do they need to do to get them re-engaged?

    With luck the media will be a bit less forgiving of National from now on. If not how can we reach people without their help?

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1

      I am also worried about the ETS.

      I think we can kiss the ETS goodbye along with the billions to pay for our Kyoto Protocol obligations (unless NAct decide to default on that).

      With luck the media will be a bit less forgiving of National from now on.

      Don’t count on it. The capitalists will still own the MSM and so they will still do their masters bidding.

  4. fender 4

    Yes I’m not feeling too flash today, but I’m proud of Phil Goff and I would hate to see a knee-jerk reaction by the party to oust him. I believe Phil would be a much better PM than Key and it saddens me to think he won’t get an oppertunity to show the country that hes got the goods. I’m not sure theres another in the party that could match Phil let alone excell his talents at this stage. My immediate preferance if there had to be change at the top would be to have Phil and Jacinda as co-leaders, but Jacinda is probably too inexperianced at this stage.

    • NattyM 4.1

      My thoughts exactly about the leadership. I’m happy to see Phil remain as once the MSM gave hima least a semblance of fair show, he showed what a good leader he is. I’ll support him as a party member if he decides to stay. And I’ve been thinking of Jacinda as a leader in the medium term – she’s young, bright, politically savvy, she doesn’t polarise people – actually more than that, she can work with people from all sides.

      My experiences in this election tell me Labour has lost a lot of young voters to Green. We will have to think a great deal about our policies and our image if we want to win them back.

      I’m depressed about the results and fear for vulnerable New Zealanders who are at mercy of the doctrinaire government – so many people will get hurt. But I did feel a little cheered after reading Anthony’s column. I can see lots of hard work ahead.

      • Craig Glen Eden 4.1.1

        Phil will do the right thing and resign and so he should, not because he is not a good bloke because he is, but Labour now needs a fresh Leadership team and a fresh start with the voters. Labour has to pick up the soft vote if we are to get back in power. Jacinda is way to young and to inexperienced to lead a political party, leading a party like Labour is fraught with danger. Jacinda will be great in the years to come but give the Woman another 9/12 years to cut her teeth and develop.

        The next week will be very interesting for the Labour caucus I wish them all the best.

  5. McFlock 5

    I am worried about the asset sales, because we will be left with price-gouging poor-service utilities reaming each individual even more than they do now.
     
    I am worried for the unemployed and students, with more harrassment and bashing for the next 3 years.
     
    I am terrified that the next election will have only 50% turnout, weighted in favour of the $100k-plus toryblock.
     
    But I think it might be good for 2014 – if we get back to 75-80% turnout, I think the pendulum will swing farther back to the left. CGT, FTT, even renationalisations will be on the table.

  6. Maui 6

    Having voted in Australia, I was appalled at the low turnout.

    Over there, every person and their pet generally turns out and it is a great opportunity to meet
    the folk from down the road.
    [it’s compulsory to vote in Australia. Eddie]

  7. Dunedin is clearly a multi party city.

    Four MPs from three parties:
    – David Clark (Labour, Dunedin North)
    – Clare Curran (Labour, Dunedin South)
    – Michael Woodhouse (National list)
    – Metiria Turei (Green list).

    Total Dunedin electorate party votes (top four):
    – National 21,466
    – Labour 20,292
    – Greens 10,142
    – NZ First 3,931

    It’s important Dunedin is represented by a strong cross party lobby.

    • r0b 7.1

      Good on you for having a go at the Dunedin North electorate Pete.  Takes guts to put yourself forward.  Not sure about the wisdom of calling yourself the “Kiwiblog Candidate” though.  On turnout evidence that brand doesn’t seem to carry much weight around here.

      • lprent 7.1.1

        I don’t think that it carries much weight anywhere… The political blogs are a minority interest of the truly politically infatuated.

      • I was just trying a few things, wasn’t appreciated by some on KB either. But I doubt anything would have made much difference for the small parties. Dunedin voting is very party dominated – and an interesting spread.

        Terrible turnout in Dunedin North, always on the low side but it has plummeted.

        And yes, almost everyone in the electorate had never heard of the political blogs.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.2.1

          Could you just go away for a bit? I’m sad your dear leader has got back in, but having you hang around these parts is just awful.

      • mik e 7.1.3

        pg good at keeping national votes from being counted well done

  8. vanakast 8

    Great, three more years and I can stay in this country without the Labour and Greens plunging us into a double dipped recession.

    • Craig Glen Eden 8.1

      We will go further backwards under National just as we have for the last three years 100,000 people have already decided not to stick around for John Key brighter future.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.2

      National have ensured we haven’t come out of the last one and have done nothing to plan for the next one (it was always going to be a double dip – the question was just timing). The next one will, of course, be worse. Even the bought and paid for economists are probably going to have to call it a depression.

    • mik e 8.3

      Wankfest It would be better than the bottom dragging depression that national have put us through so far nothing is going to change under national austerity is their policy and its going to lead us back to the Muldoom era put a few ban aids on problems here and there just like national have already done and continually wind down the economy hoping our commodity driven economy can keep growing well we’ve had record prices for our commodities and growth has stagnated for 3 years if those prices fall or stay the same backwards our economy goes again as usual under national laissez fair!Smile and wave populism great economic plan!

    • Colonial Viper 8.4

      A recession for the top 1% might actually mean a bit more of that unearned wealth gets returned to the rest of society.

  9. Pete 9

    I prefer to think of this as Labour’s Thermopylae. Hopefully they’ve got a Salamis yet to come.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      How ironic.

      We’re sharpening up the guillotines for the top 1% of the top 1%.

    • SHG 9.2

      Yeah, it’s just like Thermopylae… if the Spartans had ensured that their young promising soldiers all died while leaving the old deadwood safe in unassailable positions.

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1

        Meh, in this scenario you’re the numerous but weakly lame enemy about to sustain massive losses, so feel free to fuck off.

        • SHG 9.2.1.1

          How revealing. Former Labour supporters disenchanted with the state of the party are “the enemy”.

          Meanwhile Davis, Nash et al are looking for new jobs.

          • Misanthropic Curmudgeon 9.2.1.1.1

            That is because there is nothing more offensive to a lefty than another (former?) lefty who is critical of The Party: they hate it more than they hate ‘torys’.

            As a true-lefty, a persons role is to blindly repeat mantra like ‘more tax is good’, ‘more borrowing is good’, ‘everything the left does is good, everything anybody else does is bad’.

            Don’t question, just do.

  10. neoleftie 10

    shit old pete left you with a sound and active party structure, a list of one thousand names anyway good on David Clark

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