The census night population data result has now been released. There will be one new electorate in the North Island, the number of South Island seats is set by law at 16 and the number of Maori electorates will remain at 7. Overall the population increased by 214,000 but faster growth in the North Island has resulted in the extra seat.
Now begins the difficult job of positioning the seat and the changes will be felt mostly in Auckland, particularly in the seats of New Lynn and Maungakiekie. Both seats occupy pinch points in the istmus and the change of boundaries is particularly pronounced there.
Auckland Central, Epsom, Mt Albert and Tamaki are likely to contract and New Lynn may lose the Titirangi to Whatipu strip to Waitakere.
Further south Papakura is likely to contract and shed some of its rural area. Judith Collins majority would be threatened if this was the case. It is also likely that Manurewa will be affected.
Overall the reshuffling will be pronounced and Auckland MPs will all keenly await the draft boundary changes.
UPDATE: A closer look at the figures suggests that the new seat can be squeezed into the Auckland region from between Rodney to the North and Hunua to the South. Auckland Central will contract rather dramatically as it is 10,675 over quota. Hunua and Helensville will also have to contract in size so there could be a new Istmus seat.